Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Impacts, Adaptation and MitigationImpacts, Adaptation and Mitigation

Charles W. RiceCharles W. RiceSoil MicrobiologistSoil Microbiologist

Department of AgronomyDepartment of Agronomy

Lead Author, IPCC AR4 WGIIILead Author, IPCC AR4 WGIII

K-State Research and ExtensionK-State Research and Extension

400

350

300

250

200

150

-450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50

Source: Petit et al. 1999Thousands of years

Atm

osp

he

ric

CO

2 (

pp

mv

)Human perturbationHuman perturbation

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

Figure 10.9

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

Impact

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

2020s

2050s

2080s

Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees

North America: Key messages• A wide range of impacts of climate change are now clearly

documented• Risks from future impacts concentrated on extreme events• Vulnerable people and activities (including ag) in almost

every region– Increase number, intensity, and duration of heat waves– Changes in precipitation patterns

• Water resources will constrain potential crop yield increases and increase competition for water resources

• Warmer nights and winters may increase pest and disease in agriculture

• Opportunities for improving adaptation• Opportunities for mitigation

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

Mitigation

Fillin

g Th

e T

echn

ology Gap

Tg C yr-1

Slide courtesy of Jae Edmonds

Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means…• Changing the global energy system

• Developing a least-cost technology portfolio

Source: Socolow & Pacala; Sci. Am., Sept. 2006

Each “De-carbonizing Wedge” represents 25 billion tons of carbon avoided or reduced. 7 wedges needed to reach stabilize carbon emissions

Energy supply

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7GtCO2-eq

Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Forestry Waste

Non-OECD/EI TEITOECDWorld total

US$/tCO2-eq

Global economic mitigation potential for different sectors at different carbon prices

IPCC, 2007

Agriculture• A large proportion of the mitigation potential of agriculture

(excluding bioenergy) arises from soil C sequestration, which has strong synergies with sustainable agriculture and generally reduces vulnerability to climate change.

• Agricultural practices collectively can make a significant contribution at low cost – By increasing soil carbon sinks, – By reducing GHG emissions, – By contributing biomass feedstocks for energy use

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, 2007

Soil Microbial ActivitySoil Microbial ActivitySoil Organic Matter (C)Soil Organic Matter (C)

CO2

Harvestable Yield

Sunlight

Climate

Soils Management

No-Tillage Cropping SystemsNo-Tillage Cropping Systems

Conservation AgricultureConservation Agriculture

•Restores soil carbon•Conserves moisture•Saves fuel•Saves labor•Lowers machinery costs•Reduces erosion•Improved soil fertility•Controls weed•Planting on the best date•Improves wildlife habitat

CCX voluntary offset market

Contracts120,000 acres in KS, >2 million acres in the US

CCX Carbon Offset Prices

Vin 2003

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

01/14/04 04/23/04 08/01/04 11/09/04 02/17/05 05/28/05 09/05/05 12/14/05 03/24/06 07/02/06

Relative Yield, Economic, and Sequestration Characteristics for adopting NT continuous Corn, NE Kansas

NT

Mean Yield (bu/a) 86 CT 87.7

ΔNet Return ($/a) 26.50

Δ Soil Carbon (tons/a/y) 0.465

Δ Total Emissions (tons/a/y) -0.0087

Δ Net Carbon (tons/a/y) 0.481

Soil C Value ($/a/y) $4.00 value $2.76

Soil C Value ($/a/y) $20.00 value ~$14.0010% additional incomePendell et al., 2006

Soil OrganicCarbon

MicrobialActivity

Nutrient Cycling

Soil Structure

Soil Biodiversity

WaterErosion

&Availability

Gaseous Gaseous EmissionsEmissions

Plant GrowthYield

Environmental Environmental ServicesServices

SustainabilitySustainability

Additional mitigation from agriculture

• Additional mitigation of 770 Mt CO2-eq. yr-1 could be achieved by 2030 by improved energy efficiency in agriculture

• Feed-stocks for bio-energy.

Smith et al. (2007a)

Biofuel Production Concerns• Changes in land use, and potential conversion of

conservation lands to biomass production.

• Impact on soil carbon

• Changes in water needs, availability, and water quality impacts.

• Competition for grains and oilseeds and impacts on food and feed availability and prices.

• Lifecycle analyses and GHG/C accounting for biofuels production.

• • Assessing co-benefits of biofuel production, such as soil

quality, reduced erosion from marginal crop lands, and enhanced wildlife benefits.

So What is the Potential?• Globally

– It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 30% of the annual CO2 emissions

• United States– It is estimated that soil has the potential to offset 15% of

the annual CO2 emissions– Additional options for N2O and CH4

• The economic potential is ~30-50% of that value

Conclusions: Mitigation• Agriculture has a significant role to play in climate mitigation

• Agriculture is cost competitive with mitigation options in other sectors

• Many mitigation options improve sustainability

• Bio-energy crops and improved energy efficiency in agriculture can contribute to further climate mitigation

• Agricultural mitigation should be part of a portfolio of mitigation measures to reduce emissions / increase sinks while new, low carbon energy technologies are developed.

• Websites

www.soilcarboncenter.k-state.edu/

www.casmgs.colostate.edu/

K-State Research and ExtensionK-State Research and Extension

Chuck RicePhone: 785-532-7217Cell: 785-587-7215 cwrice@ksu.edu