climate change: implications for defence. key findings from the intergovernmental panel on climate...

8122019 Climate Change Implications for Defence Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifthellip

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-implications-for-defence-key-findings-from-the-intergovernmental 19

Global Military Advisory Council on

Climate Change

Climate Change

Implic983137tions forDefence

Key Findings from theIntergovernment983137l P983137nelon Clim983137te Ch983137nge

Fifth Assessment Report



P2 CLIMATE EVERYONES BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENCE P3

The Fifth Assessment Report from the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the

most comprehensive and relevant analysis of our

changing climate It provides the scientific fact base

that will be used around the world to formulate

climate policies in the coming years

This document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findingsof AR983093 for specific economic and business sectors It was born of the beliefthat the defence sector could make more use of AR983093 which is long andhighly technical if it were distilled into an accurate accessible timelyrelevant and readable summary

Although the information presented here is a lsquotranslationrsquo of the keycontent relevant to this sector f rom AR983093 this summary report adheresto the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material

Sincere thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science andsecurity communities for their time effort and invaluable feedback onthis document

The basis for information presented in this overview report can be foundin the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientificbackground reports at wwwipccch

ThePhysic983137lScienceofClim983137te

Ch983137nge

PUBLISHED

June 2014

FOR MORE INFORMATION

AR5europe983137nclim983137teorg

wwwcislc983137mc983137ukipcc

wwwgm983137cccorg

wwwenvirosecurityorg

wwweurope983137nclim983137teorg

AUTHOR

Brig983137dier 983111ener983137l (ret) Wendell Christopher

King PhD ndash De983137n US Army Comm983137nd 983137nd

983111ener983137l St983137ff College

REVIEWERS

C983137mbridge Project Te983137m

Nicolette B983137rtlett

St983137cy 983111ilfill983137n

D983137vid Reiner

Eliot Whittington

PROJECT DIRECTOR

Tim Nuth983137ll

PROJECT MANA983111ER EDITOR

Jo983137nn983137 Benn

EDITORIAL CONSULTANTS

C983137rolyn Symon Rich983137rd Bl983137ck

PROJECT ASSISTANTS

Myri983137m C983137st983137nieacute Simon McKe983137gney

LAYOUT DESI983111N

Lucie B983137sset Burnthebook

INFO983111RAPHIC

C983137rl De Torres 983111r983137phic Design

Aboutthis Document

Rising temper983137tures

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Fifth Assessment Report (AR983093) concludes that climatechange is unequivocal and that human activities

particularly emissions of carbon dioxide are very likelyto be the dominant cause Changes are observed in allgeographical regions the atmosphere and oceans arewarming the extent and volume of snow and ice arediminishing sea levels are rising and weather patternsare changing

Projections

Computer models of the climate used by the IPCCindicate that changes will continue under a range ofpossible greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21stcentury If emissions continue to rise at the current rateimpacts by the end of this century are projected to includea global average temperature 26ndash48 degrees Celsius (degC)higher than present and sea levels 045ndash082 metreshigher than present

To prevent the most severe impacts of climate changeparties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) agreed a target of keeping the rise in average globaltemperature since pre-industrial times below 2degC and toconsider lowering the target to 15degC in the near future

The first instalment of AR983093 in 2013 (Working Group I onthe physical science basis of climate change) concludedthat by 2011 we had already emitted about two-thirdsof the maximum cumulative amount of carbon dioxidethat we can emit if we are to have a better than two-thirdschance of meeting the 2degC target

Imp983137ct of p983137st emissions

Even if emissions are stopped immediately temperatures willremain elevated for centuries due to the effect of greenhousegases from past human emissions already present in theatmosphere Limiting temperature rise will require substantialand sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions



This summ983137ry ex983137mines the

key findings of AR5 through 983137

defence 983137n983137lysis which looks

983137t s983137fegu983137rding the security

of the n983137tion from intern983137l 983137ndextern983137l thre983137ts yielding 983137

str983137tegic view of the security

imp983137cts of clim983137te ch983137nge

IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENCE P5P4 CLIMATE EVERYONES BUSINESS

KeyFindings

Clim983137te ch983137nge poses 983137n incre983137sing thre983137t to pe983137ce 983137nd

security in the world Its imp983137cts c983137n undermine livelihoods

incre983137se involunt983137ry migr983137tion 983137nd reduce the 983137bility of

st983137tes to provide security

Clim983137te ch983137nge 983137cts 983137s 983137 lsquothre983137t multiplierrsquo 983137mplifying

existing vulner983137bilities 983137mong popul983137tions 983137nd existing

thre983137ts to security 983137nd c983137n indirectly incre983137se risks of violent

conflict The risks 983137re highest in countries with we983137k or

f983137iling governments 983137ndor with existing conflict Clim983137te

imp983137cts 983137re likely to disproportion983137tely 983137ffect these more

vulner983137ble societies

Societiesrsquo responses to clim983137te imp983137cts m983137y exceed the

glob983137l or region983137l c983137p983137city to m983137n983137ge those responses

pe983137cefully Issues of most concern include popul983137tions

displ983137ced by extreme we983137ther or se983137-level rise the spre983137d

of infectious dise983137se 983137nd l983137ck of food 983137nd w983137ter The need

for m983137jor hum983137nit983137ri983137n support is likely to incre983137se

Clim983137te ch983137nge will bring new ch983137llenges to st983137tesrsquo 983137bility

to sh983137re resources 983137nd prov ide hum983137n security Ch983137nging

resource 983137v983137il983137bility m983137y incre983137se riv983137lry between st983137tes

while se983137-level rise could r983137ise disputes over n983137tion983137l

bound983137ries Accordingly clim983137te ch983137nge will incre983137singly

sh983137pe n983137tion983137l security policies Further erosion of securityc983137n be mitig983137ted by the presence of robust institutions

Milit983137ry forces will be directly 983137ffected by clim983137te ch983137nge

Se983137-level rise 983137nd other clim983137te imp983137cts will directly 983137ffect

f983137cilities requiring 983137 response As m983137jor fossil fuel users

milit983137ry forces m983137y h983137ve to reduce their greenhouse g983137s

(983111H983111) emissions

The primary purpose of militaryforces is to maintain peace andnational security In this contextlsquopeacersquo means not just the absenceof war but the maintenance ofstable conditions that provideat minimum for peoplersquos basic

needs In this respect climatechange is a growing worldwidethreat to general peace andsecurity and as such will becomean issue of increasing significancefor the military Climate changeis best understood as a lsquothreatmultiplierrsquo exacerbating existingpressures as well as presentingnew challenges to security

The overarching impact ofclimate change on the securityenvironment stems from theadditional challenges that stateswill face in meeting the basichuman needs of a growingworld population These needsinclude food shelter cleanwater and safety In some partsof the world food and waterresources are already threatenedby climate change and this trendis projected to increase Diseasedamage to infrastructure from

natural disasters and floodingand storm surges resulting fromsea-level rise are additionalthreats for large numbers ofpeople The human-relatedimpacts of climate change ndashincluding rising temperatureschanges in precipitation patternsreductions in snow and icecover sea-level rise fallingcrop yields and destructiveextreme weather events ndash havethe potential to overwhelm the

ability of societies to respondparticularly in more fragile or lessdeveloped countries Many statesview current and anticipatedclimate change as contributing togeopolitical concerns

Climate change also has thepotential to increase rivalry overaccess to resources in particularregions including the Arctic andtrans-boundary river basins Thecombined impacts of resourcescarcity mass migrations andweakened governments arelikely to increase potential forarmed conflict between statesseeking to safeguard or acquirevital resources and betweenpopulations within states

Security breakdowns andconflict generally emerge fromthe interactions of multiplefactors Climate change indirectlyincreases the risk of violentconflict in the forms of civilwar inter-group violence andviolent protests by exacerbatingwell-established drivers of theseconflicts such as economic andpolitical shocks Poorly designed

adaptation and mitigationstrategies can also increase therisk of violent conflict

Armed forces globally willneed to adapt to the changingenvironment and considerclimate change impacts oninfrastructure and militaryinstallations They are alsolikely to be affected by globalrequirements to change energytechnologies and reduce theirown GHG emissions

ExecutiveSumm983137ry




Imp983137cts ofClim983137te Ch983137nge

Climate change poses a threat to currentand future human security Failuresin human security almost never have asingle cause but instead emerge from theinteraction of multiple factors Climatechange is set to pose an increasinglyimportant threat by undermininglivelihoods compromising culture andidentity increasing mass migrations andchallenging the ability of states to providethe conditions necessary for a stable societyTensions arising from climate change effectson human security can have implications fornational security There is strong overlapbetween governments and the defencesector because as well as protecting nationalsecurity the military is often deployed for

support in conflict or humanitarian crises

Some climate-related impacts are alreadybeing observed such as changes inagricultural output and increases in coastalflooding People living in places affectedby conflict are particularly vulnerable toclimate change

Added to other stresses such as poverty

inequality and disease the effects ofclimate change will make sustainabledevelopment objectives such as food andlivelihood security poverty reduction healthand access to clean water more difficult toachieve for many locations systems andaffected populations In recent years manyoutbreaks of conflict have been in relativelypoor tropical andor arid countries wheresocieties lack resilience These societiesare among those likely to experience thestrongest climate change impacts

Climate change could increase risks ofviolent conflict in the form of civil warinter-group violence and violent protests byexacerbating drivers of these conflicts suchas poverty and economic hardship

Mass migrations may involve peopledriven by water and food shortagesdisease flooding drought or conflictExtreme weather events have already led tosignificant population displacement andchanges in the incidence of these eventswill amplify the challenges and risks ofsuch displacement Each degree (Celsius) ofwarming is projected to decrease renewablewater resources by at least 20 for anadditional 7 of the global populationMuch displacement is temporary witheconomic factors often determining howquickly people seek to return and rebuild

Low-income migrants can find themselves

vulnerable to climate change in their newdestinations such as in poorer and high-density parts of cities Meanwhile noteveryone will have the resources necessaryto migrate at all

The destabilising effects of climate changein developing countries could haveimplications for national security in thedeveloped world

There are direct threats to human healthfrom infectious disease and other acute(heat-related) illness Climate change mayincrease the burden of a range of healthoutcomes as it is a multiplier of existingvulnerabilities including insufficient accessto safe water and improved sanitation foodinsecurity and limited access to health careand education

In many regions food production islikely to fall with lower yields from majorcrops including wheat maize and riceClimate change is also projected to affectfood security by causing a large-scale

geographical redistribution of fishThis may increase rivalry among statesover fishing access and societies relyingon fish for subsistence are likely to bedisproportionately disadvantaged

IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENCE P7

Impacts and risks

bull Extreme we983137ther 983137nd se983137-

level rise could result in m983137ss

migr983137tions the spre983137d of dise983137se

food 983137nd w983137ter insecurity 983137nd

the need for m983137jor milit983137ry

hum983137nit983137ri983137n support

bull Clim983137te-rel983137ted security thre983137ts

983137re unevenly distributed Risk is

gre983137test in countries with we983137k or

f983137iling governments 983137ndor with

existing conflict

bull Ch983137nges in geogr983137phy 983137nd

freshw983137ter 983137v983137il983137bility m983137yincre983137se riv983137lry over 983137ccess to

resources

bull Imp983137cts on defence infr983137structure

will necessit983137te ch983137nges in

logistics 983137nd oper983137tions

P6 CLIMATE EVERYONES BUSINESS

UP TO 1 BILLION

PEOPLE MAY

SUFFER FROM

WATER SHORTA983111E

BY 2050

CLIMATE CHAN983111E

OVER THE 21ST

CENTURY IS PROJECTED

TO INCREASE

DISPLACEMENT OF

PEOPLE



P8 CLIMATE EVERYONES BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENCE P9IMPLICATIONS FOR DEFENCE P9

An estimated 150 million people currentlylive in cities with perennial watershortage (ie less than 100 litres per personper day for basic human needs) Projectionssuggest that up to 1 billion urban dwellersmay have insufficient water for basic humanneeds by 2050

Climate change could shift the comparativeadvantages of cities and rural areas and differentially threaten or enhancetheir resources assets and economic baseleading to significant structural changesand impacts

The rate and intensity of natural disastersmay increase resulting in more deaths anddestruction of critical infrastructure withepidemicpandemic disease outbreakssometimes following major disasters Alarge proportion of Asiarsquos population livesin Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ) thatare particularly at risk from climate changehazards including sea-level rise stormsurges and typhoons

Rising sea levels along gently slopingcoastlines can challenge the territorial limitsto the maritime jurisdiction of the statesas the distance from national baselines tothe current outer limits of the ExclusiveEconomic Zone (EEZ) will increase beyond200 nautical miles over time Changes incoastal resources may also be coupled withdecreasing food security to compoundcoastal poverty This may lead in some

cases to increased criminal activities such as

piracy illegal unreported and unregulated(IUU) fishing and human weapons anddrug trafficking

The formation of new ice-free seawaysthrough the Arctic may benefit somecountries in terms of maritime accessShipping and mineral extraction in theregion are likely to increase However thismay lead to increasing international tensionas states perceive new vulnerabilities orpursue new opportunities resulting fromthese changes in geography

Military bases and operations will bedirectly impacted by sea-level rise extremeweather events loss of Arctic sea ice andother climate impacts For many nationsconducting operations in response to climatechange could increase the cost of nationalsecurity or threaten the ability to addresstraditional threats

Temperature rise could affect theeffectiveness and efficiency of themilitary The US military suspends allphysical training and strenuous exercisewhen the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature(WBGT) exceeds 32degC One estimate suggeststhat global labour productivity will bereduced during the hottest months to 60in 2100 if GHG emissions continue to rise atthe current rate Tropical and mid-latituderegions including India northern Australiaand the Southeastern United States will beparticularly negatively affected

Examples of Regional

Climate Impacts


Clim983137te ch983137nge c983137n

indirectly incre983137se risks

of violent conflicts in

the form of civil w983137r 983137nd

inter-group violence

by 983137mplifying drivers

of these conflicts

such 983137s poverty 983137nd

economic shocks

Water insecurity and theTibetan Plateau

There 983137re concerns th983137t tensions will incre983137se

due to clim983137te-driven w983137ter v983137ri983137bility in the tr983137ns-

bound983137ry dr983137in983137ge systems linked to the v983137st

Tibet983137n Pl983137te983137u in centr983137l Asi983137 where rivers supply

more th983137n one billion people with w983137ter Clim983137te

ch983137nge is expected to 983137lter the dyn983137mics of w983137ter

runoff 983137nd w983137rming will bring forw983137rd the snow melt

se983137son in 983137ll but the coldest regions This is likelyto incre983137se the flood risk during se983137sons of high

precipit983137tion 983137nd incre983137se w983137ter short983137ge in others

High levels of intern983137tion983137l interdependence on the

tr983137ns-bound983137ry river systems of the region connect

the rivers with the relev983137nt n983137tion983137l development

tr983137jectories Concerns 983137bout w983137ter insecurity 983137re

p983137rticul983137rly relev983137nt where ch983137llenges stemming

from rising consumption 983137nd growing popul983137tions

983137re present

Human insecurity in the Arctic

Over the p983137st two dec983137des Arctic se983137 ice 983137nd

northern hemisphere spring snow cover h983137ve

m983137rkedly decre983137sed There is 983137t le983137st 983137 two-thirds

ch983137nce th983137t the Arctic Oce983137n will be ne983137rly free of

se983137 ice in summer before 2050 This will contribute

to geopolitic983137l concerns 983137nd hum983137n insecurity in the

Arctic region Issues include food insecurity 983137ffecting

specific cultures energy security implic983137tions

through opening of subse983137 oil 983137nd g983137s reserves

incre983137sed shipping incre983137sed pollution se983137rch

983137nd rescue ch983137llenges 983137nd 983137n incre983137sed milit983137ry

presence in the region Ch983137nges m983137y cre983137te or

revive terrestri983137l 983137nd m983137ritime bound983137ry disputes

983137mong Arctic countries 983137lthough there is little

evidence th983137t 983137 ch983137nging Arctic will become 983137 site

for violent conflict between st983137tes However it c983137n

be expected th983137t n983137tions will h983137ve to 983137djust defence

policies 983137nd milit983137ry force structure in response to

these new ch983137llenges



Climte Chnge - Everyones Business Implications for Defence

Key Findings from the Intergovernmentl Pnel on Climte Chnge (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) For more informtion plese visit wwwcislcamcaukipc c

Climate change may undermine peace and securityClimate change exacerbates existing pressures on security as well asbringing new challenges and the potential for violent conflict couldincrease The operational responsibilities of the defence sector couldalso expand in the event of large-scale climate-driven disasters

Reducing

the Crbon

Bootprint

In mny ntions defence forces re

the lrgest single consumer of fossil fuel

Reducing fuel consumption would in turn

reduce greenhouse gs (GHG) emissions

More Efficient Vehicles

Light-duty vehicles could be

40ndash70 more fuel efficient by

2035 thn now

Alterntive Fuels

New aircraft typically offer 20ndash30

improvement in efficiency Shifting

from kerosene to biofuels offers +30

cuts in direct GHG emissions

Opertionl Efficiencies

Aviation carbon dioxide (CO2)

emissions can be reduced through

more efficient planning of operations

including routes altitudes and speeds

Security-Relted ClimteChnge Impcts

Responding to ClimteChnge Impcts

ResilienceStrtegies

Increse in Drought nd Inlnd Flooding

Food nd freshwter insecurity

pndemicepidemic disese outbreaks

loss of food production nd rble

lnds popultion displcement

livelihood insecurity

Geopolitical Concerns

Uneven distribution of impacts mong countries

depending on geogrphic setting nd other

fctors ffecting ntionl nd humn security

Climte-relted security threts gretest in

countries with wek or filing

governments ndor with

existing conflict

Rising nd Extreme Tempertures

Lower griculturl output spred of

disese food insecurity less renewble

wter resources more het-relted

illness chnge in lrge-scle fish

ctch potentil

Extreme Wether

Destruction of criticl infrstructure

popultion displcement

pndemicepidemic disese

outbreks humnitrin

disster

Flexible Response

Even with dptation mesures

chnges in climte cn hve unexpected dverseeffects on militry opertions Flexibility in

plnning nd response will be essentil

in meeting long-term defence

nd security responsibilities

Scenrios for Lck of Resources

Reduction of fresh clen wter resources

could require incresed pecekeeping

in res prone to conflict over

extreme scrcity s well s

logisticl dpttion for

troop supplies

Reducing Risk

Action with n emphsis on disster

risk reduction cn increse

climte resilience while

helping improve humn

livelihoods

Planning for Displacement

Millions of people could depend

on dpttion mesures to reduce

displcement cused by

costl flooding nd

lnd loss

Adjustments in Security Anlysis

Ntions will need to updte strtegic

security plnning to tke into

ccount risks nd impcts

of climte chnge

Se-Level Rise nd Storm Surges

Incresed vulnerbility in the Low Elevation

Coastal Zones dmge to infrstructure

chnging territoril limits nd integrity

popultion displcement disese

spred loss of rble lnd

chnge in costl

resources

Support for

Mss Displcement

nd Evcution

Sfely moving popultions

and supplies while providing

security clering debris

wter tretment nd

wste mngement

Routine

Militry Opertions

Pecekeeping in frgile

res refugee control

policing conflict resolution

engineering ctivity border

protection

Refugee Support

Rpidly constructing

nd mintining fcilities

to provide criticl services

for displced popultion

for extended periods

of time

Humnitrin

Opertions

Rebuilding nd dptinginfrstructure mintining

snittion fcilities

providing shelter protecting

vulnerble popultions

ginst emerging threts

mortury services

Medicl Support

Providing lrge-scle

emergency medicl

tretment mobile

hospitls snittion

mesures preventtive

medicine

Militry Bses

Possible reloction

use s medicl

centres nd

support res for

refugees

Anticipating Climate Risk

Anticipating climate risks can help

planners reduce impacts Numerous

facilities may need to be relocated andor

strengthened notably to secure naval

bases against flooding and

sea-level rise

Declining Snow nd Ice Cover

Access to offshore resources in

newly ice-free res freshwter

insecurity chnges

in geogrphy and new

openings for traffic



Many adaptations to climate change that

involve the military can result in significant

co-benefits such as alleviating poverty

and enhancing development especially in

developing countries Various adaptation

interventions promote well-being and security

through the diversification of income-

generating activities adaptive migration

in agricultural and fishing communities

insurance systems and education of women

Flood prep983137redness

The benefits of protecting against increased

coastal flooding and land loss due to

submergence and erosion at the global scale

are greater than the social and economic costs

of inaction Without adaptation hundreds of

millions of people will be affected by coastal

flooding and will be displaced due to land loss

by 2100 The majority are in East Southeast

and South Asia However some low-lying

developing countries (eg Bangladesh

Vietnam) and small island states are expected

to face unavoidable land loss and annual

flooding damage

Reloc983137ting milit983137ry inst983137ll983137tions983137nd b983137ses

Numerous naval bases located in coastal areas

may need to be relocated further inland if

the coast is not protected Some may require

relocation even with coastal protection

Prep983137ring for popul983137tiondispl983137cement

Some migration flows are caused by changes

in resource availability and ecosystem

services Major extreme weather events

have in the past led to significant population

displacement and the likely increase in

extreme events will amplify the challenges

and risks of such displacement Climate

change effects of this type present chronic

and episodic challenges to state capacity and

to the fundamental welfare of populations at

a scale that raises questions of state stability

The military has the ability to provide

infrastructure immediately bringing medical

supplies lift capability and communications

to devastated regions

Prep983137ring for w983137ter insecurity

Climate change is projected to reduce both

the quantity and quality of freshwater

resources in many regions of the world

Groundwater resources will be reduced in

many regions Adaptation measures can

include water resource management projects

additional water treatment systems and

water conservation Many of these methods

are expensive and take significant amounts

of time to implement This may limit their

application in poorer countries

Incre983137sing resilience

Strategies and actions with an emphasis on

disaster risk reduction can be pursued thatincrease climate resilience while at the same

time helping to improve human livelihoods

social and economic well-being and

responsible environmental management

Resilience


L983137rge-sc983137le violent

conflict h983137rms

983137ssets th983137t f983137cilit983137te

983137d983137pt983137tion including

infr983137structure

institutions n983137tur983137l

resources soci983137l

c983137pit983137l 983137nd livelihood

opportunities

The global military complex is anenergy-intensive industry and in manynations defence forces are the largestsingle consumer of fossil fuels Given

the significance of its impact on climateconditions the defence sector may comeunder significant pressure to reduce its GHGemissions ndash especially if governments enactpolicies to curb climate change in line withthe globally agreed 2degC target Howeverreducing fuel consumption may benefitoperations particularly for deployed forceswhere moving large quantities of fuel iscostly and dangerous

More efficient vehicles

Internal combustion engines and jetturbines are becoming increasingly efficientExpectations are for 40ndash70 improvementsin the fuel efficiency of light-duty vehiclesby 2035 compared to present New aircrafttypically offer a 20ndash30 improvement infuel efficiency over existing models drivenby improved engine performance weightreductions and design Further gains of 40ndash50 between 2030 and 2050 are possiblecompared with 2005 levels

Altern983137tive fuels

It may be possible to replace kerosene withbiofuels which offers direct GHG emissionreductions of +30 Shifting to electricor hydrogen-fuelled vehicles promises todramatically reduce emissions

Oper983137tion983137l improvements

Aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can

be reduced through more efficient planning

of operations including routes altitudesand speeds

Unintended consequences

Some efforts to mitigate emissions andadapt to climate change can increaseinsecurity and the risk of armed conflictWhere these efforts change the distributionof or access to resources they have thepotential to cause or aggravate conflict Forexample biofuel production can lead todisputes over land food price spikes andrioting Offering payments for ReducedEmissions from Deforestation and ForestDegradation (REDD) projects may triggerconflict over land and property rights Andsome forms of low-carbon power suchas hydropower have led to conflict overforced resettlement

Mitig983137tionPotenti983137l





ADAPTATION

The process of 983137djustment to 983137ctu983137l

or expected clim983137te 983137nd its effects

In hum983137n systems 983137d983137pt983137tion seeks

to moder983137te or 983137void h983137rm or exploit

benefici983137l opportunities In n983137tur983137l

systems hum983137n intervention m983137y

f983137cilit983137te 983137djustment to expected

clim983137te 983137nd its effects

ARMED CONFLICT

Conflicts th983137t involve more th983137n 25

b983137ttle-rel983137ted de983137ths in 983137 ye983137r

BIOFUEL

A fuel gener983137lly in liquid form produced

from org983137nic m983137tter or combustible

oils produced by living or recently

living pl983137nts

CLIMATE CHAN983111E

Any signific983137nt ch983137nge in clim983137te

th983137t persists for 983137n extended period

typic983137lly dec983137des or longer

CLIMATE IMPACT

The effects of clim983137te ch983137nge on

n983137tur983137l 983137nd hum983137n systems

CO983085BENEFIT

The positive effect th983137t 983137 policy or

me983137sure 983137imed 983137t one objective might

h983137ve on other objectives

DEFENCE

Activities of 983137 n983137tion with the prim983137ry

purpose of securing the n983137tion from

intern983137l 983137nd extern983137l thre983137ts to pe983137ce

983111REENHOUSE 983111AS

A g983137s in the 983137tmosphere of n983137tur983137l

983137nd hum983137n origin th983137t 983137bsorbs 983137nd

emits therm983137l infr983137red r983137di983137tion

W983137ter v983137pour c983137rbon dioxide nitrous

oxide meth983137ne 983137nd ozone 983137re the

m983137in greenhouse g983137ses in the E983137rthrsquos

983137tmosphere Their net imp983137ct is to tr983137p

he983137t within the clim983137te system

HUMAN SECURITY

A condition th983137t is met when the vit983137l

core of hum983137n lives is protected 983137nd

when people h983137ve the freedom 983137nd

c983137p983137city to live with dignity

MASS MI983111RATION

The migr983137tion of l983137rge groups of people

from one geogr983137phic983137l 983137re983137 to 983137nother

M983137ss migr983137tion is distinguished from

individu983137l or sm983137ll sc983137le migr983137tion

In the context of clim983137te ch983137nge

migr983137tion c983137n be 983137n 983137d983137ptive or 983137n

emergency response

MITI983111ATION

A hum983137n intervention to reduce the

sources or enh983137nce the sinks of

greenhouse g983137ses

NATIONAL SECURITY

The responsibility of government to

m983137int983137in the he983137lth of the st983137te through

the use of economic power diplom983137cy

milit983137ry 983137nd politic983137l power

PEACEKEEPIN983111

Milit983137ry forces 983137pplied to prevent or

end 983137rmed conflict between other

983137rmed forces

PROJECTION

A potenti983137l future evolution of 983137 qu983137ntity

or set of qu983137ntities often computed by 983137

model Projections involve 983137ssumptions

th983137t m983137y or m983137y not be re983137lized 983137nd

983137re therefore subject to subst983137nti983137l

uncert983137inty they 983137re not predictions

RESILIENCE

The c983137p983137city of soci983137l economic

983137nd environment983137l systems to cope

with 983137 h983137z983137rdous event or trend or

disturb983137nce responding or reorg983137nizing

in w983137ys th983137t m983137int983137in their essenti983137l

function identity 983137nd structure

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Development th983137t meets the needs of

the present without compromising the

983137bility of future gener983137tions to meet their

own needs

THREAT MULTIPLIER

A f983137ctor th983137t ex983137cerb983137tes the neg983137tive

effects of other drivers of ch983137nge

983111loss983137ryConclusion

Clim983137te ch983137nge

h983137s the potenti983137l to

incre983137se the risk of

conflict 983137nd insecurity

The imp983137cts of

clim983137te ch983137nge on the

critic983137l infr983137structure

983137nd territori983137l integrity

of m983137ny st983137tes

983137re expected to

influence n983137tion983137l

security policies


Climate change has the potential to

increase the risk of conflict and insecuritybecause factors such as poverty andeconomic hardship associated with ahigher risk of violent conflict are especiallysensitive to climate change Althoughmany climate risks warrant furtherinvestigation and there is a need for morecomprehensive evidence across multiplelocations and over long durations it islikely that climate change over the 21stcentury will lead to new challenges tostates and will increasingly shape nationalsecurity policies

The effects will be unevenly distributedamong countries depending on theirgeographical setting and other factors thataffect security Economically and politicallystrong nations will be able to adapt tomoderate impacts of climate change andin so doing greatly reduce security threats(although security is at risk for vulnerablepopulations even in rich countries) On theother hand the most vulnerable nationsmay struggle to respond even to moderate

climate impacts without considerableassistance People in places with existingviolent conflict are particularly vulnerableto climate threats and the highest defencethreats are in fragile states subject tomultiple impacts of climate change

Individual studies differ in theirconclusions on whether violence has astatistically significant association withclimate but there is higher confidence that

climate variability has such an impact

As climate change progresses it is likelyto increase the variability of freshwatersupplies and agricultural yields

It is likely that the military will be taskedwith providing progressively morehumanitarian support missions havingto organise large-scale logistics supportand provide medical resources to respondto epidemic disease border securityoperations and rising tensions over naturalresources The defence sector will alsoneed to consider how it adapts or relocatesfacilities equipment and operations

Security threats from climate change willbe amplified at high levels of warmingwhich ndash if emissions continue to rise at thecurrent rate ndash will cause environmentalconditions to change faster than at any timein human history Accordingly policies thatreduce GHG emissions across all sectorsare likely to reduce the security threatsof climate change in future decades As amajor user of fossil fuels military forces

are also likely to be increasingly taskedwith reducing their own emissions whichmay bring benefits in terms of the cost andcomplexity of operations



ldquoIt is essential that the security community understands the science of the IPCC AR5 report

in order to be able to analyse the implications and risks associated with climate change In

Pakistan we are witnessing how changes to the climate are already impacting our national

security At the same time many in the military would freely admit a lack of understanding

of and thus an inability to act on this issue It is the key need of our timerdquo

LIEUTENANT 983111ENERAL 983080RET983081 TARIQ WASEEM 983111HAZI PAKISTAN

ldquoThis project to interpret the content of the IPCC AR5 report for the armed forces and security

community in a timely and simple manner is vitally important for future planning given the

global security concerns in a rapidly changing environment and a changing climate with its

many consequencesrdquo

MAJOR 983111ENERAL 983080RET983081 JOSEPH 983111 SIN983111H 983111UYANA

For more inform983137tion

E-mail AR983093europeanclimateorgwwwcislcamcaukipcc

wwwgmacccorg


wwweuropeanclimateorg

wweuropeanclimateorg

Reproduction and use The materials can be freely used to advance

discussion on the implications of the AR983093 and consequences for business

The report is made available to any and all audiences via the Creative

Commons License BY-NC-SA This document is available for download

from the CISL website wwwcislcamacukipcc the GMACCC website

and the IES website

Disclaimer

This publication has been developed by the EuropeanClimate Foundation (ECF) the Global Military AdvisoryCouncil on Climate Change (GMACCC) an initiative ofthe Institute for Environmental Security (IES) and theUniversity of Cambridgersquos Institute for SustainabilityLeadership (CISL)

This project was initiated and financed by ECF andendorsed by CISL

The family of summaries of which this report is part is

not meant to represent the entirety of the IPCCrsquos FifthAssessment Report (AR983093) and they are not official IPCCdocuments The summaries have been peer-reviewed byexperts both from the business and science communitiesThe English version constitutes the official version

About us

CISL brings together business government and academiato find solutions to critical sustainability challenges

GMACCC is a global network of serving and retiredmilitary officers and associated institutions committedto highlighting the potential security implications of achanging climate and advocating action including by themilitary to minimise the risks

The IES is an international NGO established in 2002 inThe Hague in order to increase political attention to

environmental security as a means to help safeguardessential conditions for peace and sustainabledevelopment The IES set up GMACCC in 2009 as part of itsprogramme on Climate Change and International Security




The Fifth Assessment Report from the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the

most comprehensive and relevant analysis of our

changing climate It provides the scientific fact base

that will be used around the world to formulate

climate policies in the coming years

This document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findingsof AR983093 for specific economic and business sectors It was born of the beliefthat the defence sector could make more use of AR983093 which is long andhighly technical if it were distilled into an accurate accessible timelyrelevant and readable summary

Although the information presented here is a lsquotranslationrsquo of the keycontent relevant to this sector f rom AR983093 this summary report adheresto the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material

Sincere thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science andsecurity communities for their time effort and invaluable feedback onthis document

The basis for information presented in this overview report can be foundin the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientificbackground reports at wwwipccch

ThePhysic983137lScienceofClim983137te

Ch983137nge

PUBLISHED

June 2014

FOR MORE INFORMATION

AR5europe983137nclim983137teorg

wwwcislc983137mc983137ukipcc

wwwgm983137cccorg


wwweurope983137nclim983137teorg

AUTHOR

Brig983137dier 983111ener983137l (ret) Wendell Christopher

King PhD ndash De983137n US Army Comm983137nd 983137nd

983111ener983137l St983137ff College

REVIEWERS

C983137mbridge Project Te983137m

Nicolette B983137rtlett

St983137cy 983111ilfill983137n

D983137vid Reiner

Eliot Whittington

PROJECT DIRECTOR

Tim Nuth983137ll

PROJECT MANA983111ER EDITOR

Jo983137nn983137 Benn

EDITORIAL CONSULTANTS

C983137rolyn Symon Rich983137rd Bl983137ck

PROJECT ASSISTANTS

Myri983137m C983137st983137nieacute Simon McKe983137gney

LAYOUT DESI983111N

Lucie B983137sset Burnthebook

INFO983111RAPHIC

C983137rl De Torres 983111r983137phic Design

Aboutthis Document

Rising temper983137tures

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Fifth Assessment Report (AR983093) concludes that climatechange is unequivocal and that human activities

particularly emissions of carbon dioxide are very likelyto be the dominant cause Changes are observed in allgeographical regions the atmosphere and oceans arewarming the extent and volume of snow and ice arediminishing sea levels are rising and weather patternsare changing

Projections

Computer models of the climate used by the IPCCindicate that changes will continue under a range ofpossible greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21stcentury If emissions continue to rise at the current rateimpacts by the end of this century are projected to includea global average temperature 26ndash48 degrees Celsius (degC)higher than present and sea levels 045ndash082 metreshigher than present

To prevent the most severe impacts of climate changeparties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) agreed a target of keeping the rise in average globaltemperature since pre-industrial times below 2degC and toconsider lowering the target to 15degC in the near future

The first instalment of AR983093 in 2013 (Working Group I onthe physical science basis of climate change) concludedthat by 2011 we had already emitted about two-thirdsof the maximum cumulative amount of carbon dioxidethat we can emit if we are to have a better than two-thirdschance of meeting the 2degC target

Imp983137ct of p983137st emissions

Even if emissions are stopped immediately temperatures willremain elevated for centuries due to the effect of greenhousegases from past human emissions already present in theatmosphere Limiting temperature rise will require substantialand sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions











KeyFindings

























































Impacts and risks











existing conflict



resources





UP TO 1 BILLION

PEOPLE MAY

SUFFER FROM

WATER SHORTA983111E

BY 2050

CLIMATE CHAN983111E

OVER THE 21ST


TO INCREASE

DISPLACEMENT OF

PEOPLE














Climate Impacts


Clim983137te ch983137nge c983137n






of these conflicts


economic shocks

















983137re present


























Reducing

the Crbon

Bootprint








2035 thn now

Alterntive Fuels












ResilienceStrtegies














existing conflict






ctch potentil

Extreme Wether




outbreks humnitrin

disster

Flexible Response












troop supplies

Reducing Risk





livelihoods





costl flooding nd

lnd loss





of climte chnge







chnge in costl

resources

Support for

Mss Displcement

nd Evcution




wter tretment nd

wste mngement

Routine

Militry Opertions


res refugee control



protection

Refugee Support

Rpidly constructing





of time

Humnitrin

Opertions


snittion fcilities




mortury services

Medicl Support

Providing lrge-scle

emergency medicl

tretment mobile

hospitls snittion

mesures preventtive

medicine

Militry Bses

Possible reloction

use s medicl

centres nd

support res for

refugees







sea-level rise




insecurity chnges

in geogrphy and new



























flooding damage








































Resilience



conflict h983137rms



infr983137structure




opportunities


















ADAPTATION









ARMED CONFLICT



BIOFUEL




living pl983137nts

CLIMATE CHAN983111E




CLIMATE IMPACT



CO983085BENEFIT




DEFENCE













HUMAN SECURITY





MASS MI983111RATION







emergency response

MITI983111ATION




NATIONAL SECURITY





PEACEKEEPIN983111



983137rmed forces

PROJECTION







RESILIENCE











own needs

THREAT MULTIPLIER








The imp983137cts of







security policies



























wwwgmacccorg









and the IES website

Disclaimer





About us















KeyFindings

























































Impacts and risks











existing conflict



resources





UP TO 1 BILLION

PEOPLE MAY

SUFFER FROM

WATER SHORTA983111E

BY 2050

CLIMATE CHAN983111E

OVER THE 21ST


TO INCREASE

DISPLACEMENT OF

PEOPLE














Climate Impacts


Clim983137te ch983137nge c983137n






of these conflicts


economic shocks

















983137re present


























Reducing

the Crbon

Bootprint








2035 thn now

Alterntive Fuels












ResilienceStrtegies














existing conflict






ctch potentil

Extreme Wether




outbreks humnitrin

disster

Flexible Response












troop supplies

Reducing Risk





livelihoods





costl flooding nd

lnd loss





of climte chnge







chnge in costl

resources

Support for

Mss Displcement

nd Evcution




wter tretment nd

wste mngement

Routine

Militry Opertions


res refugee control



protection

Refugee Support

Rpidly constructing





of time

Humnitrin

Opertions


snittion fcilities




mortury services

Medicl Support

Providing lrge-scle

emergency medicl

tretment mobile

hospitls snittion

mesures preventtive

medicine

Militry Bses

Possible reloction

use s medicl

centres nd

support res for

refugees







sea-level rise




insecurity chnges

in geogrphy and new



























flooding damage








































Resilience



conflict h983137rms



infr983137structure




opportunities


















ADAPTATION









ARMED CONFLICT



BIOFUEL




living pl983137nts

CLIMATE CHAN983111E




CLIMATE IMPACT



CO983085BENEFIT




DEFENCE













HUMAN SECURITY





MASS MI983111RATION







emergency response

MITI983111ATION




NATIONAL SECURITY





PEACEKEEPIN983111



983137rmed forces

PROJECTION







RESILIENCE











own needs

THREAT MULTIPLIER








The imp983137cts of







security policies



























wwwgmacccorg









and the IES website

Disclaimer





About us























Impacts and risks











existing conflict



resources





UP TO 1 BILLION

PEOPLE MAY

SUFFER FROM

WATER SHORTA983111E

BY 2050

CLIMATE CHAN983111E

OVER THE 21ST


TO INCREASE

DISPLACEMENT OF

PEOPLE














Climate Impacts


Clim983137te ch983137nge c983137n






of these conflicts


economic shocks

















983137re present


























Reducing

the Crbon

Bootprint








2035 thn now

Alterntive Fuels












ResilienceStrtegies














existing conflict






ctch potentil

Extreme Wether




outbreks humnitrin

disster

Flexible Response












troop supplies

Reducing Risk





livelihoods





costl flooding nd

lnd loss





of climte chnge







chnge in costl

resources

Support for

Mss Displcement

nd Evcution




wter tretment nd

wste mngement

Routine

Militry Opertions


res refugee control



protection

Refugee Support

Rpidly constructing





of time

Humnitrin

Opertions


snittion fcilities




mortury services

Medicl Support

Providing lrge-scle

emergency medicl

tretment mobile

hospitls snittion

mesures preventtive

medicine

Militry Bses

Possible reloction

use s medicl

centres nd

support res for

refugees







sea-level rise




insecurity chnges

in geogrphy and new



























flooding damage








































Resilience



conflict h983137rms



infr983137structure




opportunities


















ADAPTATION









ARMED CONFLICT



BIOFUEL




living pl983137nts

CLIMATE CHAN983111E




CLIMATE IMPACT



CO983085BENEFIT




DEFENCE













HUMAN SECURITY





MASS MI983111RATION







emergency response

MITI983111ATION




NATIONAL SECURITY





PEACEKEEPIN983111



983137rmed forces

PROJECTION







RESILIENCE











own needs

THREAT MULTIPLIER








The imp983137cts of







security policies



























wwwgmacccorg









and the IES website

Disclaimer





About us


















Climate Impacts


Clim983137te ch983137nge c983137n






of these conflicts


economic shocks

















983137re present


























Reducing

the Crbon

Bootprint








2035 thn now

Alterntive Fuels












ResilienceStrtegies














existing conflict






ctch potentil

Extreme Wether




outbreks humnitrin

disster

Flexible Response












troop supplies

Reducing Risk





livelihoods





costl flooding nd

lnd loss





of climte chnge







chnge in costl

resources

Support for

Mss Displcement

nd Evcution




wter tretment nd

wste mngement

Routine

Militry Opertions


res refugee control



protection

Refugee Support

Rpidly constructing





of time

Humnitrin

Opertions


snittion fcilities




mortury services

Medicl Support

Providing lrge-scle

emergency medicl

tretment mobile

hospitls snittion

mesures preventtive

medicine

Militry Bses

Possible reloction

use s medicl

centres nd

support res for

refugees







sea-level rise




insecurity chnges

in geogrphy and new



























flooding damage








































Resilience



conflict h983137rms



infr983137structure




opportunities


















ADAPTATION









ARMED CONFLICT



BIOFUEL




living pl983137nts

CLIMATE CHAN983111E




CLIMATE IMPACT



CO983085BENEFIT




DEFENCE













HUMAN SECURITY





MASS MI983111RATION







emergency response

MITI983111ATION




NATIONAL SECURITY





PEACEKEEPIN983111



983137rmed forces

PROJECTION







RESILIENCE











own needs

THREAT MULTIPLIER








The imp983137cts of







security policies



























wwwgmacccorg









and the IES website

Disclaimer





About us










Reducing

the Crbon

Bootprint








2035 thn now

Alterntive Fuels












ResilienceStrtegies














existing conflict






ctch potentil

Extreme Wether




outbreks humnitrin

disster

Flexible Response












troop supplies

Reducing Risk





livelihoods





costl flooding nd

lnd loss





of climte chnge







chnge in costl

resources

Support for

Mss Displcement

nd Evcution




wter tretment nd

wste mngement

Routine

Militry Opertions


res refugee control



protection

Refugee Support

Rpidly constructing





of time

Humnitrin

Opertions


snittion fcilities




mortury services

Medicl Support

Providing lrge-scle

emergency medicl

tretment mobile

hospitls snittion

mesures preventtive

medicine

Militry Bses

Possible reloction

use s medicl

centres nd

support res for

refugees







sea-level rise




insecurity chnges

in geogrphy and new



























flooding damage








































Resilience



conflict h983137rms



infr983137structure




opportunities


















ADAPTATION









ARMED CONFLICT



BIOFUEL




living pl983137nts

CLIMATE CHAN983111E




CLIMATE IMPACT



CO983085BENEFIT




DEFENCE













HUMAN SECURITY





MASS MI983111RATION







emergency response

MITI983111ATION




NATIONAL SECURITY





PEACEKEEPIN983111



983137rmed forces

PROJECTION







RESILIENCE











own needs

THREAT MULTIPLIER








The imp983137cts of







security policies



























wwwgmacccorg









and the IES website

Disclaimer





About us






























flooding damage








































Resilience



conflict h983137rms



infr983137structure




opportunities


















ADAPTATION









ARMED CONFLICT



BIOFUEL




living pl983137nts

CLIMATE CHAN983111E




CLIMATE IMPACT



CO983085BENEFIT




DEFENCE













HUMAN SECURITY





MASS MI983111RATION







emergency response

MITI983111ATION




NATIONAL SECURITY





PEACEKEEPIN983111



983137rmed forces

PROJECTION







RESILIENCE











own needs

THREAT MULTIPLIER








The imp983137cts of







security policies



























wwwgmacccorg









and the IES website

Disclaimer





About us








ADAPTATION









ARMED CONFLICT



BIOFUEL




living pl983137nts

CLIMATE CHAN983111E




CLIMATE IMPACT



CO983085BENEFIT




DEFENCE













HUMAN SECURITY





MASS MI983111RATION







emergency response

MITI983111ATION




NATIONAL SECURITY





PEACEKEEPIN983111



983137rmed forces

PROJECTION







RESILIENCE











own needs

THREAT MULTIPLIER








The imp983137cts of







security policies



























wwwgmacccorg









and the IES website

Disclaimer





About us




















wwwgmacccorg









and the IES website

Disclaimer





About us





climate change: implications for defence. key findings from the intergovernmental panel on climate...

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