Climate Change Scenarios Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessmentfor Impact Assessment

Indian Institute of Tropical Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyMeteorology

K. Rupa KumarK. Rupa Kumar

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002

The PeopleThe People Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI)Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI) Dr. K. Krishna KumarDr. K. Krishna Kumar Mr. C.M. MohileMr. C.M. Mohile Mrs. S.K. PatwardhanMrs. S.K. Patwardhan Dr. P.K. MishraDr. P.K. Mishra Dr. G.B. PantDr. G.B. Pant Collaborators/Consultants:Collaborators/Consultants:

Dr. D.B. Stephenson, University of ReadingDr. D.B. Stephenson, University of Reading Mr. D. Hassell, Hadley CentreMr. D. Hassell, Hadley Centre Prof. D.V.B. Rao, Andhra UniversityProf. D.V.B. Rao, Andhra University

OUTLINEOUTLINE

ObjectivesObjectives Research TasksResearch Tasks Observed climate change in IndiaObserved climate change in India Coupled model projectionsCoupled model projections HadRM2 diagnostics and scenariosHadRM2 diagnostics and scenarios HadRM3H installation at IITMHadRM3H installation at IITM

ObjectivesObjectives

Evaluation of Regional Climate Model Evaluation of Regional Climate Model simulations for Indian climatesimulations for Indian climate

Estimation of uncertainties in model-Estimation of uncertainties in model-based predictionsbased predictions

Development of future climate Development of future climate scenarios for India during the 21scenarios for India during the 21stst centurycentury

Preparation of climate change scenario Preparation of climate change scenario products for impact assessmentsproducts for impact assessments

Research TasksResearch Tasks

Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations for Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations for IndiaIndia

Development of climate change scenarios Development of climate change scenarios based on HadRM2 experimentsbased on HadRM2 experiments

Installation of HadRM3H at IITMInstallation of HadRM3H at IITM Sensitivity experiments with HadRM3HSensitivity experiments with HadRM3H Climate change scenario runs with Climate change scenario runs with

HadRM3HHadRM3H Quantification of key uncertaintiesQuantification of key uncertainties

All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

Long-term Trends Long-term Trends in Indian Summer in Indian Summer Monsoon RainfallMonsoon Rainfall

All-India Mean Surface All-India Mean Surface TemperaturesTemperatures(1901-2000)(1901-2000)

Based on a Based on a constant constant network of 31 network of 31 stations well-stations well-distributed over distributed over IndiaIndia

Long-term Trends in Long-term Trends in Annual Mean Annual Mean Surface Air Surface Air TemperatureTemperature

Diurnal Asymmetry of Diurnal Asymmetry of All-India Mean Annual Temperature TrendsAll-India Mean Annual Temperature Trends

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Te

mp

era

ture

(ºC

) Minimum Temperature

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Te

mp

era

ture

(ºC

) Mean Temperature

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Te

mp

era

ture

(ºC

) Diurnal Temperature Range

29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Te

mp

era

ture

(ºC

) Maximum Temperature

Mean Annual Cycles of Observed and SimulatedMean Annual Cycles of Observed and SimulatedAll-India Monthly Rainfall & Surface Air All-India Monthly Rainfall & Surface Air

TemperatureTemperature

Models – Temp MapsModels – Temp Maps

Models - RF MapsModels - RF Maps

Models – RF ContrModels – RF Contr

Models – RF CVModels – RF CV

Temp SeriesTemp Series

MonRF SeriesMonRF Series

Climate Change over India in Transient Climate Change over India in Transient Simulations (1980-2039 relative to Simulations (1980-2039 relative to 1920-79)1920-79)

Models-MonRF varModels-MonRF var

MonRF Change - ECHAMMonRF Change - ECHAM

MonRF Change – HadCM3MonRF Change – HadCM3

The Hadley Centre Regional Climate The Hadley Centre Regional Climate ModelsModels

(HadRM2/HadRM3H)(HadRM2/HadRM3H)

High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCMand sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM

Formulation identical to HadAMFormulation identical to HadAM Grid : 0.44° x 0.44°Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° One-way nestingOne-way nesting Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley

Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian regionCentre using HadRM2 for the Indian region HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations

and scenario development will be performed at IITMand scenario development will be performed at IITM

All-India Mean Monthly All-India Mean Monthly RainfallRainfall

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Months

Rai

nfa

ll (

mm

/day

)

Observed

CTL

GHG (2041-60)

All-India Seasonal RainfallAll-India Seasonal Rainfall

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Rai

nfa

ll (

mm

/sea

son

)

DJF MAM JJAS ON

Season

Observed

CTL

GHG (2041-60)

All-India mean Surface Air All-India mean Surface Air TemperatureTemperature

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tem

per

atu

re (

C)

Observed

Control

GHG (2041-60)

HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (Control)(Control)

HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (Control)(Control)

HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-Control)Control)

HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-Control)Control)

State-wise mean State-wise mean precipitation scenarios : precipitation scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL

Year

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

/se

as

on

)

CTL

GHG

State-wise mean monsoon State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : precipitation change scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL

Ra

infa

ll C

ha

ng

e (

% o

f C

TL

)

State-wise Mean State-wise Mean Temperature Scenarios : Temperature Scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL

Te

mp

era

ture

(C

)

CTL

GHG

State-wise Mean Annual State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2HadRM2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL

Te

mp

era

ture

Ch

an

ge

(C

)

HadRM2 scenarios for HadRM2 scenarios for distribution among impact distribution among impact groupsgroups

Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60)and IS92a scenario (2041-60)

Each experiment has 20 years dataEach experiment has 20 years data Monthly and Daily data on various parametersMonthly and Daily data on various parameters Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid

spacingspacing Spatial means for administrative units (other Spatial means for administrative units (other

spatial units can be included)spatial units can be included) One standard CD set of monthly data with One standard CD set of monthly data with

basic climatic elements, and specialized data basic climatic elements, and specialized data CDs based on impact group’s requirement CDs based on impact group’s requirement