Climate Change: Causes, Impacts and Responses in

Cambodia

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Prepared by CHEA Chan Thou,Deputy Director of Climate Change Department,

Ministry of Environment29 October 2014, Phnom Penh

Content

I. Causes of Climate ChangeII. Climate Change Assessment and ProjectionIII. Climate Change Impact by SectorIV. Climate Change Respond

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I. Causes of Climate Change

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Background on climate change

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1°C 2°C (400 ppm CO2 e) 5°C4°C3°C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

FoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

Source: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change 8

II. Climate Change Assessment and Projection

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Projections using 2 GCM models, CCSR and CSIRO, and two emission scenarios, SRESA2 & SRESB1 (Cambodia’s Initial National Communication 2002): Cambodia’s temperature would increase up

to 1.35 - 2.50C in 2100 Annual rainfall would increase between 3

and 35% from current condition and lowland areas seem to be more affected than highland areas.

Projections of future climate change in Cambodia

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Result: Detecting Historical and Future Climate Change (PRECIS Model)

Decadal :

1 : 1960 -1989

2 : 1970 -1999

3 : 1980 -2009

4 : 1990 -2019

5 : 2000 -2029

6 : 2010 -2039

7 : 2020 -2049

8 : 2030 -2059

9 : 2040 -2069

10 : 2050 -2079

11 : 2060 -2089

12 : 2070 -2099

Historical and future mean temperature over land area of Cambodia (based on PRECIS)

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Historical change (trend) of seasonal rainfall in Cambodia (1960-2000)

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Regional change of monthly rainfall pattern in the period of 1960 to 2099

To assess the regional change of monthly rainfall pattern under warming atmosphere (SRESA2), we used long historical and future rainfall data of

PRECIS.

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1960-1979

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1980-1999

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2000-2019

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2020-2039

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2040-2059

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152060-2079

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SRESA2: Trend of rainfall change based on 14 GCMs

All models predict rainfall will decrease

All models predict rainfall will increase

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SRESB1: Trend of rainfall change based on 14 GCMs

All models predict rainfall will decrease

All models predict rainfall will increase

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Finding• Based on data 1960-2000, Cambodian climate (rainfall and temperature) has

already change, and the future rainfall pattern will continue to change depending on emission scenarios

• Under high emission scenarios (SRESA2) – DS rainfalls DJF and MAM will decrease with high probability and WS JJA

and SON rainfall may increase but with lower probability than the DS rainfall. This suggests that the onset of rainy season may delay in the future under this emission scenario.

– WS rainfall JJA and SON will decrease until 2025 and then increase again in 2050 and 2080

• Under low emission scenarios (SRESB1)– Similar with SRESA2 DS rainfall will decrease but with lower probability.– Different with SRESA2, WS rainfall JJA will increase in 2025 and then

decrease again in 2050 and 2080• Change in rainfall pattern will affect many sectors. Adaptation studies and

pilots projects at local levels must be developed and implemented• Global community achievement in reducing GHG emission will have different

implication on Cambodia

III. Vulnerability of Climate Change by Sector

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1. Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production

Yield of wet season (rainfed) and dry season (irrigated) rice under different planting time. Presented as percent yield decrease relative to maximum yield

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0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

Current 2025 2050 2080

Rice

Dem

and/

Supp

ly (t

on)

Demand Supply-SRESB1 Supply SRESA2

Crop productivity increased by 25% from current level

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

Current 2025 2050 2080

Rice

Dem

and/

Supp

ly (t

on)

Demand Supply-SRESB1 Supply SRESA2

Crop productivity increased by 75% from current level

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

Current 2025 2050 2080

Rice

Dem

and/

Supp

ly (t

on)

Demand Supply-SRESB1 Supply SRESA2

No increased in productivity from current level

Rice demand and supply projection in Cambodia with increased productivity under two emission scenarios

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Planting Index increased from 1.15 to 1.30

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

Current 2025 2050 2080

Rice

Dem

and/

Supp

ly (t

on)

Demand Supply-SRESB1 Supply SRESA2

No increased in productivity from current level

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

Current 2025 2050 2080

Rice

Dem

and/

Supp

ly (t

on)

Demand Supply-SRESB1 Supply SRESA2

Planting Index increased from 1.15 to 1.65

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

Current 2025 2050 2080

Rice

Dem

and/

Supp

ly (t

on)

Demand Supply-SRESB1 Supply SRESA2

Rice demand and supply projection in Cambodia with increased planting index under two emission scenarios

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Adaptation Options for Agriculture • As Cambodia, addressing climate change problem

should be done by increasing adaptive capacity to the changing climate and the resilience to the future climate and at the same time also contributing to the reduction of GHG emission,

• In the context of adaptation: – (i) short term the efforts should be directed to increase

coping capacity to current climate risks through the improvement of climate risk management and community livelihood,

– (ii) long term the efforts should be directed to increase the resilience of the agriculture system to future climate risks through the revitalization of long term policies and planning by taking into account climate change.

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

7 month

5 month

3 month

2 month

2. SOIL WATER BALANCE PATTERN OF CAMBODIA Length of Growing Period

RESULTS

Soil Water Balance Pattern under Baseline Climate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Baseline

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Soil Water Balance Pattern under Current and Future Climate

LGP: 7 months 5 months 3 months 2 months

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

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Length of Growing Period under Current and Future Climate in Agriculture Land

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Implications and Recommendation• Under future climate (2025 and 2050), planting index is

impossible to increase to more than 1.0 without developing irrigation facilities. Most of agriculture area will have growing period of less than 5 month.

• Establishment of irrigation facilities has to be prioritized, particularly in areas in which growing period would be equal of less than 2 months.

• In 2080, most of agriculture areas would have growing period of more than 5-7 months. Under SRESA2, total area with this growing period will be wider than that of the current condition

• Ministry of Agriculture might need to consider the climate change in developing plan for establishment of irrigation facilities.

• Impact of climate and land use changes on rivers’ flow may need to be evaluated to establish climate proof land use plan and reservoirs system.

Source: 27

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3. Coastal Area Affected by 1 m SLR

Level of vulnerability to floods and drought by province

Source: NAPA (2006) 29

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IV. Climate Change Respond

The Cambodian NAPA consists of 39

‘no-regret’ adaptation projects

which focus on measures that have

direct impacts on the livelihoods of

local people, in particular the

poorest.

1. National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)

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Fourteen of the twenty prioritized adaptation programs in NAPA aimed for reducing risk of climate hazards and improving crop

managementPriority Types of ProgrammesHigh Development and Improvement of Community Irrigation Systems

Water Gates and Water Culverts Construction Development and Rehabilitation of Flood Protection Dikes Rehabilitation of a Multiple-Use Reservoir in Takeo Province Rehabilitation of Upper Mekong and Provincial Waterways Promotion of Household Integrated Farming Rehabilitation of Multiple-Use Dams in Takeo and Kampong Speu

ProvincesMedium Establishment and Improvement of Farmer Water User

Communities Groundwater Extraction for Crop Cultivation Promotion of Food Supplements in Household Cattle Raising Development of Community Rice Banks Improving Farmers' Adaptive Capacity Climate Change or Capacity

to manage Climate Risk Introduction of Short-Period Rice Varieties in Areas Affected by

Seawater Intrusion and Drought, Training of Village Veterinary Workers.

Source: MoE, 200632

2. Cambodia Climate Change Strategic Plan (CCCSP) (1)

VisionCambodia develops towards a greener, climate resilient, equitable, sustainable and knowledge-based society.

MISSIONCreating a national framework for engaging public and private sectors, and civil society in a participatory process for responding to climate change to support sustainable development. Goals:•Reducing vulnerability to climate change impacts of critical (natural and societal) systems and most vulnerable groups •Shifting towards a green development path by promoting low-carbon development and technologies.Timeframe10 years with 5 years revision in line with the NSDP mandate

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Strategic objectives:

1. Promote climate resilience through improving food, water and energy security.

2. Reduce sectoral, regional and gender vulnerability to climate change impacts.

3. Ensure climate resilience of critical ecosystems (Great Lake, Mekong River, coastal ecosystems, highlands etc.), biodiversity, protected areas and cultural heritage.

4. Promote low-carbon planning and technologies to support sustainable development of the country.

5. Improve capacities, knowledge and awareness for climate change response.6. Promote adaptive social protection and participatory approaches in

reducing loss and damage.7. Strengthen institutions and coordination frameworks for national climate

change responses.8. Strengthen collaboration and active participation in regional and global

climate change processes.

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IWRM is the tool for CC adaptation• IWRM is defined as a process that promotes the coordinated

development and management of water, land and related resources to maximise the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner, without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems.

• IWRM is an integrated approach to balance water availability and water demand, so that access to water resources among different uses and users can be equitable, fair and economically efficient. It is also intended to ensure that water use is sustainable, taking into consideration ecosystem requirements for water.

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Conclusion

• The RGC is committed to addressing the CC challenges but faces many constraints: limited HR; limited awareness; a lack of data, research, analysis, technology, financial resources, policy & strategic plan

• However, the opportunities for implementing adaptation and mitigation measures are considered to be excellent: increasing CC financing (fast track, Green Climate Fund, GEF, AF, LDCF, Bilateral, private sector, etc.), RGC’s commitment to green growth aligns with mitigation activies such as CDM, OBMC, PoA, REDD+, etc.

Thank you!Mr. CHEA Chan Thou,

Email: chanthouchea@yahoo.com

www. camclimate.org.kh

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