Climate Changeand the Rural EconomyManaging land in the face of climate change

The European Landowners’ perspectives on the:

• Implications of climate change

• Land management actions

• Policy considerations

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Foreword

Land is the basic resource for the production of food and fibre, for biodiversity, and for ecosystem management

in the widest sense. Adaptation and climate mitigation are therefore central to the future of sustainable land management.

The negative consequences of global temperature rises are well known. As greenhouse gas emissions continue

to rise, pressure increases on global leaders to be ambitious and take measures to limit warming to below two

degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels.

As the European Commission advances on its climate initiatives domestically it is timely to reflect on the contribution

of the European countryside to the climate discussions.

Agriculture and forestry are among the sectors most directly affected by climate and are important emitters and

sequesters of emissions.

Janez PotočnikChairman of the RISE Foundation

and EU Commissioner for Environment(2010-2014)

The ELO represents the collective voice of landowners, managers and farmers across Europe. Their business and

private properties are the core for a sustainable and prosperous countryside.

The ELO addresses issues that affect European rural areas, which represent over 77% of the EU’s territory

(47% farm land and 30% forest) and is home to around half its population (consisting of farming communities and

other residents).

The agricultural sector has 12 million full-time farmers, with another 3 million jobs created through Europe’s forests.

Agriculture, forestry and the agri-food industry - which is heavily dependent on agriculture for its supplies - account

for 6% of the EU’s GDP, comprise 15 million businesses and provide 49 million jobs.

Acknowledgements

This paper is the result of collaboration between ELO’s staff (directed by Ana Rocha) and its members and supporters,

in particular the policy team at CLA and Michael Sayer.

We are mainly grateful to Dr David Viner (Mott MacDonald) and Corrado Pirzio-Biroli (RISE foundation) for their

expert input.

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Contents

I. Climate Change in context

II. Implications for land managers

1. Water resources

2. Soils

3. Pests and diseases

4. Plant growth and yields

5. Ecosystems and biodiversity

6. Rural businesses

III. Land management actions

1. Reducing GHG emissions

2. Managing carbon stocks

3. Replacing fossil fuels

4. Managing water resources

5. Managing ecosystems

6. Adapting rural businesses and infrastructure

IV. Policy considerations

1. Consider a global approach

2. Consider a local approach

3. Promote the provision of environmental goods and services

4. Promote a sustainable bioeconomy

5. Promote Innovation

6. Capacity building

V. Conclusions

Select bibliography

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Executive summary

This paper examines climate change from the perspective of the owners and managers of rural land and

businesses in Europe.

It reflects on the implications for food security and for land management and it focuses on climate friendly

practices by landowners and managers, rather than and consumption habits. Several multipurpose actions are

listed in chapter III that contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation, namely by:

› Reducing greenhouse gas emissions;

› Managing carbon stocks efficiently;

› Replacing fossil fuels;

› Managing water resources to face climate challenges, like storms and droughts;

› Managing ecosystems to increase their resilience and the provision of public goods;

› Adapting businesses and infrastructures in rural, and often disadvantageous, areas.

The paper finishes with policy considerations that could boost adaptation and mitigation actions in rural areas by:

› Considering a global approach, taking into account the links with other nations and with different sectors;

› Considering a local approach;

› Promoting the provision of environmental goods and services;

› Promoting a sustainable bioeconomy;

› Promoting innovation;

› Increasing capacity building.

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I. Climate Changein context

The evidence is clear (IPCC. 2015). Climate change

is real, and it is largely caused by human activities,

primarily through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from

fossil fuel burning, but also from other activities such as

agriculture and land use changes. Land based activities

emit GHGs, principally carbon dioxide (CO2), methane

(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N

2O). The first is emitted

mostly through negative changes of carbon stock in

soils and by agricultural inputs that require fossil energy

(mineral fertilizers, animal feed, pesticides). Methane

is released by anaerobic fermentation (in ruminants,

during the handling and storage of animal manure, in

flooded rice fields) and while more short-lived, it is a

more powerful GHG than CO2. Nitrous oxide is generated

by mineral and organic nitrogen fertilizers and manure

management. Water vapour in the air can also trap heat

and so act as a greenhouse gas and to a lesser extent,

agriculture also produces fine particles in the form of

salts that reflect the sun in the atmosphere, such as

ammonium nitrate (NH4NO

3) and sulphates.

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have

increased, causing the Earth to warm. For instance,

carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by

about 40% since pre-industrial times, with most of the

increase since the 1970s.

Consequently the past decade was globally the warmest

since global temperature records became available,

and annual average land temperatures over Europe

are projected to continue increasing by more than the

global average temperature. The largest temperature

increases are projected over eastern and northern

Europe in winter and over southern Europe in summer.

As temperature increases, it is very likely that the number

and intensity of temperature extremes and heat waves

will increase globally. Rises in sea levels are projected

to accelerate significantly and storm and tidal surges

will become more severe because of the higher base

sea level. In individual events, this may be exacerbated

by associated river flooding.

On the other hand, changes in precipitation may vary

significantly between regions; it is likely to decrease further

in such regions as the Mediterranean and North Africa.

In contrast, more intense and frequent extreme

precipitation events are very likely in most mid-latitude

regions, in, for example, Europe and North America,

and wet tropical regions.

Figure 1. Projected changes in average temperature, 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 for low emission (left: RPC2.6) and high-emission (right: RCP 8.5) scenarios. Source: IPCC, 2013.

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II. Implicationsfor land managers

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges

facing the world, notably influencing migration flows

and the way we manage land resources.

Generally, key risks include floods, droughts, other

weather extremes and fires that damage ecosystems,

biodiversity and harvests, as well as infrastructure and

human well-being.

As climatic conditions directly impact on land based

activities, rural businesses are particularly sensitive to

climate change.

In short, climatic changes will increase the challenges

for land managers mainly in terms of availability of

water resources (1), quality of soils (2), spread of pests

and diseases (3) and consequently plant growth and

yields (4), ecosystems (5) and rural businesses (6),

leading to significant changes in the conditions for land

managers.

1. Water resources

Rainfall patterns will change across Europe. Annual pre-

cipitation is generally projected to increase in northern

Europe and to decrease in southern Europe, thereby en-

hancing the differences between currently wet regions

and currently dry regions. In northern Europe and at

higher altitudes this can result in increased growth rates

and yields, while in southern Europe there is a greater

risk of drought, fire and desertification. The differences

are not only geographical but also seasonal, as spring

and summer droughts are expected to increase, while

wetter autumns and winters will hinder cultivation on

heavier soils.

Generally the global groundwater recharge is expected

to decrease, increasing the exposure of already

vulnerable regions in Europe. Even in northern Europe,

increased rainfall is not likely to be reflected fully in

groundwater levels due to the greater intensity of rainfall

events and higher evapotranspiration. Although

catchment areas will not respond uniformly, the

availability of water to maintain base flows in rivers and

for irrigation is likely to become less certain, exacerbated

by competition from the public water supply and

industry. River-fed farm reservoirs will become vulnerable

to abstraction restrictions in dry winters, and in some

catchments increased irrigation may not be an option.

Changes in river flows and run-off patterns are also of

concern, both for maintaining base flows in dry periods

and for increased flood risk in wet spells. These changes

will also affect the seasonal water availability for hydro-

power. At the same time, the increased incidence and

severity of river and coastal flooding, combined with

inadequate commitment to river management, results in

Figure 2. Projected changes are for 2071-2100, compared to 1971-2000, based on the average of a multi-model en-semble forced with the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. Source: EEA, 2015.

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physical risk to livestock and loss of pasture.

Threats like salt-water intrusion and eutrophication

should also be considered. The first is exacerbated by

rising sea levels and the second is more frequent in

periods of low rainfall. Some of the gases that cause

climate change are also acidifying and eutrophying

pollutants.

More stress on fresh water availability will likely result in

a greater need for irrigation and resource alternatives,

such as desalinisation, thus being more expensive for

society. It also pressures water users, including farmers,

to be extra careful with management practices that

affect both quantity and the quality of the water resources.

2. Soils

Our soils partially regulate the drainage, flow and storage

of water and solubles; any threats posed by climate

change can result in significant degradation in water

quality and capacity.

Soils are likely to be affected principally by drying out

(peat soils), waterlogging (clay soils in wet autumns and

winters), increased run-off and erosion in wet periods

(sandy and chalky soils), and summer flooding in river

valleys. Whilst droughts can remove or weaken protective

plant cover and leave soils more exposed to erosion,

very heavy rain storms directly wash away topsoil.

The Mediterranean region is particularly susceptible

because it experiences long dry periods followed by

spells of heavy rain. In northern Europe, water erosion is

less visible because, in general, there are higher levels

of vegetation cover. According to recent statistics

(Eurostat), approximately 11.4 % of the European Union

territory is estimated to be affected by a moderate to

high level soil erosion (more than 5 tonnes per hectare

per year). About 0.4 % of EU land suffers from extreme

erosion (more than 50 tonnes per hectare per year).

Temperature increases can lead to higher biological

activity in soils, creating more mineralisation of the

organic matter in soil and thus more carbon losses.

While the magnitude of this effect could be reduced

by lack of water during summer droughts, generally

changes lead to a loss of soil fertility.

To sum up, higher temperatures and increasingly

extreme weather events contribute to the process of

desertification in Europe, which is likely to become

worse in future, particularly in the southern countries.

3. Pests and diseases

Combined with global trade, climate change is likely

to increase the threat from pests and diseases, which

have important implications for the plant protection and

animal health sectors.

One of these concerns is how plant and animal

diseases will shift in range and intensity, including the

prospect of diseases previously unknown in individual

Member States becoming a threat. There is evidence of

Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis occurring at

higher altitudes and latitudes due to a higher incidence

of vectors such as Sheep Tick (Ixodes ricinus) and

Culicoides spp; while sub-tropical animal diseases are

also expected to migrate northwards as their insect

vectors move. At the same time, heat-induced stress

affects animal welfare, making them more susceptible

to disease.

Fewer hard frosts mean more pests will overwinter

Forests are expected to suffer from increasing

populations of insect pests such as Spruce

Bark Beetle (Ips typographus) and Pine Sawfly

(Neodiprion sertifer). Climate stress is likely to

exacerbate existing disease in Pedunculate Oak

(Quercus robur) and Ash (Fraxinus excelsior) and

problems of shallow-rooted species like Beech

(Fagus sylvatica).

Bluetongue disease, which reached livestock

farms in the UK in 2007, is an early example of

what is expected to become a more common

problem in the future.

Figure 3. Figure 3 Projected change of global mean sea level rise (21st century). Source: IPCC, 2013.

successfully, which is likely to require changes in pest

management regimes. Increases in winter root and stem

infections in oilseed rape and wheat are to be expected.

4. Plant growth and yields

Although an increase in CO2 on its own would enhance

plant growth as it can increase plant photosynthesis,

there is a general scientific expectation of a decline

in yields and quality through an inhibition of nitrogen

uptake due to changing climates. Droughts, and the

increasing incidence of extreme events, are seen as the

principal factors involved (Olesen et al. 2011).

Northern parts of Europe could expect some positive

effects on agriculture through the expansion of suitable

areas for crop cultivation, longer crop seasons and

more frost-free periods, though with late frosts.

However, projections suggest increasingly negative

impacts on global agricultural production throughout this

century. Agricultural productivity is particularly threat-

ened in semi-arid regions where rising temperatures can

make agriculture impossible or wholly unprofitable.

Consequently, shifts in the location of production of some

crops are expected. For instance, long term models

suggest that northern Europe will have a global role as a

source of grain, especially wheat, to help meet growing

global demand. This will be particularly so if production

in the Mediterranean and lower Danube is compromised.

Forest growth is projected to decrease in southern

Europe, including in the Iberian cork forests, and to

increase in northern Europe.

Across Europe, there is an expectation that the increased fre-

quency and severity of extreme climatic events will cause more

production losses in Europe than will mean temperature rises.

To sum up: global temperature increases combined with

increased food demand, pose significant risks for global

food security, particularly as yield growths for major

food crops stagnate and (price) volatility increases.

If we do not tackle waste and improve yield growth, it

will be difficult to keep up with population growth and

resulting demand. Should such demand not be met,

additional land will need to be converted to agriculture,

which could further exacerbate climate pressures.

5. Ecosystems and biodiversity

Changes in climate will cause the migration of some

new species within Europe, which are likely to extend

their range northward, but would also lead to losses for

any at the edge of their range. For each +1°C increase in

mean temperature, climate moves pole-wards by about

150/200 km or uphill by 100/150m (Feehan et al. 2009).

Since many species are unable to migrate at this speed,

this leads to huge ecosystem shifts.

For forestry, rising temperatures will result in movement

of the natural ranges of some tree species northwards

and to higher altitudes. These changes are already

happening faster than the trees’ ability to keep up without

assisted migration. Uneven-aged and mixed forests

are likely to be more resilient to disease, drought and

wind-throw.

Mediterranean, montane and wetland systems are

considered most at risk, with up to 50% loss of

biodiversity (IPCC. 2014).

Climate change has the potential, over a period of a few

decades, to undermine the conservation and sustainable

use of biodiversity. It is made worse by the increasing

risk of storms and fires.

An increase in the frequency and severity of storm force

winds will make woodland more vulnerable to wind

damage. In Germany, it is estimated that storm damage

may increase by 8% (A1B scenario) to 19% (B2 scenar-

io) for the period 2060-2100, especially in mountainous

regions (IPCC. 2014).

Temperatures of 40° C were recorded in Madrid

in May 2015, causing severe damage to flowering

in wheat. High temperatures severely inhibit

meiosis and seed set is reduced from 57 grains

per ear to 23 by 24 hours at 30°C.

The Russian drought and heat wave of 2010 led

to the loss of 60 to 65 million tonnes or a third

of the grain crop, while in 2012 the wheat crop

was 39% below the five-year average. In France,

2011 was the hottest and driest spring since 1880

and there was an 8% decrease in wheat yield.

In the US drought of 2012, the most extensive since

the 1950s, 80% of the agricultural area was affected.

Figure 4. World population in 1950 and 2010 and projected to 2050 and 2100. Source: UN, 2013.

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Fire risk is mainly associated with the Mediterranean,

but the area at risk is getting bigger and the risk period,

the fire season, is lengthening. Projections show the

spread of very high fire risk areas across much of west

France for 2041-2070, and to a lesser extent central

Europe and Scandinavia.

The ability of the land to supply ecosystem services will

undoubtedly vary with climate change. Because climate

changes in the future are difficult to predict the way

ecosystems respond is also uncertain.

6. Rural businesses

Climate change will have a range of impacts on

businesses. While there may be cases when new business

opportunities can arise, most of the impacts are

expected to be disrupting and are expected to fall

disproportionately on SMEs.

The damage caused to economic activities and private

property, as well as communities and individuals, by

such weather-related disasters can be considerable.

Areas affected by weather related business disruption

include tourism, property and infrastructure damage

leading to increased costs of maintenance and materials

and disruption of supply chains, both raising costs for

the producer and prices for the consumer.

In the short term, climate change can lead to jumps in

insurance premium prices. Over the longer term,

particularly in the most vulnerable sectors, climate

change could indirectly increase social disparities as

insurance premiums become unaffordable for a fringe

of the population. Disruptions to annual harvest and

livestock patterns could further lead to lower or irregular

harvests which could threaten the long-term viability of

rural economies.

The economic consequences for regions where tourism

is important may be substantial. The suitability of southern

Storm damage in France, Germany and Switzer-

land from Windstorm Lothar in December 1999

amounted to 300 million cubic metres of timber,

and from Erwin in January 2005 to 85 million cu-

bic metres. Over one million cubic metres of tim-

ber has been lost from storm damage in the UK

on five occasions in the last 50 years, and in up-

land regions wind throw is the major determining

factor in rotation length as well as the principal

constraint on thinning.

Figure 5. Projected increase of fire risk in Europe on A1B Emissions Scenario (2041-2070). Source: IPCC, 2014.

Eight countries in central Europe suffered seri-

ous flooding in the summer of 2010, Poland be-

ing the worst affected, with 23,000 people having

to be evacuated and the economic costs totalling

around €2.5 billion. Recent droughts in Europe,

such as those in 2003 and 2008, have highlighted

the impact of desertification and the large eco-

nomic costs it brings. The drought of 2003 in cen-

tral and Western Europe alone caused estimated

economic damage of more than €12 billion.

Europe for tourism is projected to decline markedly during

the key summer months but improve in other seasons.

Central Europe is projected to increase its tourism appeal

throughout the year. Projected reductions in snow

cover will negatively affect the winter sports industry in

many regions.

Infrastructure and buildings can be damaged or rendered

unfit for use by any changing climatic condition or

extreme weather event.

Climate change will also affect supply and demand

patterns for food, energy and raw materials, which can

go in opposite directions in cases of different extreme

weather events.

Figure 6. Key observed and projected impacts from climate change for the main regions in Europe. Source: EEA, 2012.

Arctic

Temperature rise much larger than global average

Decrease in Arctic sea ice coverage

Decrease in Greenland ice sheet

Decrease in permafrost areas

Increasing risk of biodiversity loss

Intensified shipping and exploitation of oil and gas

resources

Coastal zones and regional seas

Sea-level rise

Increase in sea surface temperatures

Increase in ocean acidity

Northward expansion of fish and plankton species

Changes in phytoplankton communities

Increasing risk for fish stocks

North-western Europe

Increase in winter precipitation

Increase in river flow

Northward movement of species

Decrease in energy demand for heating

Increasing risk of river and coastal flooding

Mediterranean region

Temperature rise larger than European average

Decrease in annual precipitation

Decrease in annual river flow

Increasing risk of biodiversity loss

Increasing risk of desertification

Increasing water demand for agriculture

Decrease in crop yields

Increasing risk of forest fire

Increase in mortality from heat waves

Expansion of habitats for southern disease vectors

Decrease in hydropower potential

Decrease in summer tourism and potential

increase in other seasons

Northern Europe

Temperature rise much larger than global average

Decrease in snow, lake and river ice cover

Increase in river flows

Nortward movement of species

Increase in crop yields

Decrease in energy demand for heating

Increase in hydropower potential

Increasing damage risk from winter storms

Increase in summer tourism

Mountain areas

Temperature rise larger than European average

Decrease in glacier extent and volume

Decrease in mountain permafrost areas

Upward shift of plant and animal species

High risk of species extinction in Alpine regions

Increasing risk of soil erosion

Decrease in ski tourism

Central and eastern Europe

Increase in warm temperature extremes

Decrease in summer precipitation

Increase in water temperature

Increasing risk of forest fire

Decrease in economic value of forests

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III. Land managementactions

As they become aware that climate change related risks

to rural areas are expected to increase, landowners

and land managers tend to scale up mitigation efforts,

mainly by reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions (1)

and conserving and increasing carbon stocks both

in soils and in biomass (2), which can be used as a

substitute material and for bioenergy (3) purposes.

As resource holders, land managers are in a key

position to manage water resources (4) and

to provide ecosystem services (5).

While they have to adapt their businesses (6)

to climate change pressures, farmers also have to

continue to do their job by providing sufficient quality

food, fuel and other land based marketed goods.

1. Reducing GHG emissions

More than other sectors, GHG emissions in agriculture

involve complex and wide-ranging biological

processes including, for example, enteric fermentation in

ruminants which is difficult to reduce.

Nonetheless, increasing agricultural productivity can

be achieved with reduced emissions in a sustainable

way. Thus, between 1990 and 2014, agricultural

production in the developed world was maintained

or even slightly increased, while the sector’s CO2 and

non-CO2 emissions were cut back. This trend must be

kept and strengthened.

In fact, there are a number of farm management options

that have the potential to reduce GHGs, mainly in the

areas of fertiliser use (nitrates and ammonia) and the

livestock sector (methane). These include:

› Overall reduction of external inputs, particularly

fertilisers the manufacturing of which is GHG-intensive;

› Use of precision farming;

› Crop rotation with N-fixating legumes. Legume crops

can advantageously replace imported soybeans in

animals’ diets;

› Selection of breeds;

› Improvements in the nutrition of livestock, as diet and

the level of food intake influence methane releases

from ruminants and manure;

› Use of natural pasture for livestock rearing;

› Improvements in manure storage (e.g. appropriate

installations for different types of animal manure and slurry)

and promotion of rapid coverage of manure storages;

› Improvements in manure spreading by immediate

incorporation into soils and by a better accounting of

nitrogen content (both for lower ammonia emissions

and lower leaching of nitrogen to groundwater and

superficial water bodies);

› The use of anaerobic digestion to treat farm and

other organic waste allowing the recovery of valuable

nutrients and the production of energy, notably

through small scale co-digestion biogas plants.

These technical and management options vary in cost-

effectiveness and practicality and would benefit from

substantial additional research and stronger advisory

services.

2. Managing carbon stocks

Agriculture and forestry fix carbon in large quantities

and are the main economic sectors that store it in veg-

etation and soils through photosynthesis.

The mitigation potential in agriculture and forestry

depends on many factors such as soil type, climatic

conditions and land use. Nevertheless, a wide range of

farming and forestry practices and land use changes

help enhance carbon sequestration:

› Protection of organic matter in the soil and restoration

of carbon in degraded soils;

› Conservation agriculture (reduced or no tillage) which

avoids or reduces soil disturbance, while providing

significant energy savings;

› Maintenance of soil cover throughout the year, use

of catch crops, incorporation of organic material in a

sustainable manner (animal manure, sewage sludge,

cereal straw, compost), green cover of bare soil in

permanent cropland;

› Integrated farming;

› Diversified crop rotations, including leguminous crops;

› Changes in the farming calendar and shifts in the

distribution and spectrum of pests and diseases;

Figure 7. Non-CO2 emissions and the volume of production

in the agriculture sector, 1990-2012. Source: FAO and EEA.

1716

› Preservation of carbon hotspot areas, i.e. land with

high carbon stocks, such as grasslands, peatland and

wetlands is of particular importance as in such areas

potential carbon losses due to disturbance of the land

are the highest;

› Afforestation, as trees hold considerably more carbon

than most agricultural crops on a more permanent

basis and over time significantly enhancing soil carbon;

› Adjusting silvicultural systems and rotation lengths;

› Decennial forest inventories recording standing

volumes according to species and age class.

3. Replacing fossil fuels

There are further possibilities to maintain and sequester

carbon through the supply of biomass for the production

of bioenergy (renewable energy) and renewable materials

(biomaterials, plant-based chemistry), thus replacing

fossil fuels.

Bioenergy is a broad category for describing energy

produced from organic materials. It can be used to

produce heat, power, gas or transport fuels through a

variety of processes. It can also be more easily stored

and used to release energy as required, unlike some

other forms of energy. Currently, most bioenergy comes

from forest resources, accounting for two thirds of the

total renewable energies. It provides around 150 million

tonnes of CO2 equivalent of GHG savings, without

taking into account emissions caused by possible

indirect land use change related to biomass production.

In addition, there are other renewable energy services

that land managers are able to contribute, by investing

in hydro, wind and solar sources, which also contribute

towards reducing dependence on fossil energy sources.

It is estimated that in the EU soils contain 73-79

gigatonnes of organic carbon (equivalent to 275

Gt CO2). This represents more than fifty times the

annual GHG emissions from the EU1.

Figure 8. Global potential for mitigation by activity (AFOLU). Source: IPCC 2014.

Carbon is also stored in timber and other forest

products, which can be an alternative to more energy

intense products such as brick and heavy concrete

(whose manufacture is estimated at 4,000 kg CO2 and

2,000 kg CO2 per cubic metre respectively). In fact,

Europe’s forests are producing an increasing amount

of renewable, reliable raw material for building, energy,

paper, furniture and other everyday uses. The amount

of timber in Europe’s forests is growing by more than

760 million cubic metres per year and two-thirds of this

increase is harvested at present.

Measures to enhance the use of renewable energy and

materials include:

› Use of energy crops, forest biomass, bio-residues

and manure for the production of biofuels as well as

biogas for heating and electricity;

› Opting for higher generations biofuels;

› Sustainable management of the forests to increase forest

growth. Generally European forests follow the principles

of Sustainable Forest Management and are often part of

certification schemes such as FCS and PEFC;

› Considering other renewable energy options;

› Use of commodities from agriculture and forestry in

the production of industrial materials can help reduce

the need for petrochemical-based products, such as

polymers and fibres.

The scope for solar power is demonstrated by

the Gemasolar plant, occupying 195 ha of the

Monclova estate at Fuentes de Andalucia, which

generates 19.9 MW electricity per annum, capable

of supplying 110 GW hours and saving an

estimated 30 Mt CO2 in emissions.

For renewables, the main legislative issues

revolve around a revised Renewable Energy

package to set out the support framework for

bioenergy after 2020 as well as how to take account

of the impact of bioenergy on the environment,

land use and food production. It will include best

practices in renewable energy self-consumption

and support schemes; and a new policy for

sustainable biomass.

Figure 9. Contribution of renewable energy sources to gross inland energy consumption. Source: EEA, 2014.

Figure 10. Global total material use by resource type, 1900 –2009. Source EEA, 2015

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4. Managing water resources

As water availability becomes more challenging,

sustainable management of water resources becomes

more pressing. Landowners and land managers are

already making efforts to deal with the challenges and

to ease tensions between different users, tensions often

made worse by increasing costs of managing water and

tightening of abstraction licensing regimes.

Adaptation responses are based on the importance of

good water, soil and vegetation management, such as:

› Use of crop varieties better suited to new weather

conditions (e.g. more resilient to heat and drought);

› Adjusting sowing dates according to temperature and

rainfall patterns;

› Adapting crop rotation to make the best use of

available water;

› Installation and management of buffer strips and field

margins on arable land that reduce water run-off;

› Use of water efficient technology and efficient

scheduling;

› Investment in farm water storage, looking at

opportunities to retain water in on-farm reservoirs and

other constructed wetlands (consider collaborating

with neighbours and authorities);

› Use of more effective methods of irrigation, such as

drop irrigation systems;

› Consider sources alternative to groundwater, such as

rainwater harvesting and reuse of grey waters;

› Use of sustainable drainage systems to prevent runoff

and flooding, such as infiltration trenched, filter drains,

pounds and wetlands, grass buffers.

5. Managing ecosystems

Carbon stocks can be lost through land use change or

through exceptional climate events, such as storms and

fires, leading to rapid release of the stocked carbon to

the atmosphere as CO2.

The management of ecosystems for resilience can

thus minimise climate change impacts, for instance,

by absorbing excess flood water or buffering against

coastal erosion or extreme weather events.

Land managers have a key role to play in maintaining

resilient ecosystems, for instance by:

› Improving the balance of species and age classes in

relation to site;

› Enhancing genetic change and therefore ability for

geographic migration;

› Including migration corridors and site management;

› Monitoring and controlling alien species.

› Conserving grassland;

› Maintaining, restoring or creating wetlands, ponds

and water meadows to help provide additional water

sources and benefit wildlife.

› Appling the principles of Sustainable Forest

Management, keeping in mind that uneven-aged

mixed forests appear to be more resistant to wind

throw and more resilient in the face of disease and

other stresses.

6. Adapting rural businesses and

infrastructure

Climate change will have an adverse effect on a range

of business ventures, and adaptation steps will be

advisable. These include:

› Increased support for on-farm and off-farm diversifi-

cation under rural development plans;

› Development of insurance with respect to future

climate risks;

› Use of integrated greenhouse gas accounting

systems to enable a business to audit its own emissions

and sequestration at landscape scale.

Weather related:

› ‘Speculative’ planting to minimise yield variability,

infrastructure investments, shelter belts for protection

of crops and livestock and building maintenance e.g.

improving drainage capacity, avoiding livestock on

flood prone areas and collecting excess rainwater for

use in periods of drought;

› Improved building standards to provide greater

resilience in extreme events;

› Increasing use of weather stations.

Energy related:

› Savings in own energy use (equipment, buildings,

machinery for field operations);

› Diversification of energy supply;

› Better insulation of buildings.

Infrastructure related:

› Infrastructure measures, such as more efficient irriga-

tion systems or water storage, and water transfer grids;

› Soft engineering solutions to limit coast erosion.

Flood related:

› Soil management practices to increase the water-

holding capacity of the soil and assist in flood control;

› Creation of inter-tidal habitats (coasts and estuaries)

and freshwater habitats (inland) to encourage habitat

re-creation for environmental benefit;

› Integrated soil and water practices in the uplands

to reduce soil and habitat degradation as well as

reducing and slowing runoff;

› Offshore reefs to stabilise shorelines and beaches;

› Tree and shelterbelts on contours to remove runoff

and increase infiltration.

Tourism related:

› Diversified rural tourism activity;

› Environmental land management to maintain and

enhance essential rural tourism;

› Visitor management plans, including transport links

and car parking schemes.

Rural businesses will need to make the most of the

opportunities deriving from climate change. It will often

be a case of businesses mitigating the adverse impact

of climate change while also seeking to exploit any new

opportunities that arise.

The West Reservoir built at Holkham in Norfolk,

England, cost £700,000 for a capacity of 62

million gallons in 2011-2012. By using the water

for vegetables and potatoes, the payback period

is expected to be eight years. Use for cereals

remains a future potential, but is not currently

justified in economic terms.

Ecosystems are an important carbon stock.

Currently, terrestrial and marine ecosystems

absorb roughly half the CO2 emissions human

activity generates. Terrestrial ecosystems store

about 2,100 Gt of carbon in living organisms, litter

and soil organic matter. Some 350-550Gt carbon

is currently sequestered in peat lands, which hold

between 20 and 25% of global soil carbon.

On the Ore/Alde estuary on the Suffolk coast in

the UK, a partnership has been formed which

aims to maintain 44 km of river wall protecting

3,878 ha of land and 556 houses to the standard

of an event with a return period of one in 200

years. The partnership is currently seeking to

raise between £5M and £7M and has been

offered 39 development sites (mostly plots for

from one to five houses) by landowners to raise

the money.

Currently, half the UK defences are maintained

only to minimal level (National Audit Office).

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21

IV. Policyconsiderations

Policies must help optimise countryside actions

to maintain food security while fully exploiting the

mitigation potential of different land uses. Policies

must be designed to support this general objective as

they drive the markets, which, in turn, drive patterns of

behaviour, be it that of farmers and landowners or

consumers and investors. Nonetheless, it is important

to recognise that land is a finite resource and policies

must not disadvantage the landowner or put at risk the

capacity of the land for food production or damage the

natural environment.

While taking into account both global (1) and local

approaches (2), climate change mitigation and adaptation

can be achieved by encouraging the provision of

environmental goods and services (3), by promoting

the Sustainable Intensification of food production and a

Sustainable Bioeconomy (4), by incentivising research

and innovation (5), and by enhancing the capacity of

landowners and managers (6) to adapt and mitigate

against climate change.

1. Consider a global approach

Maintaining a vibrant countryside and a resilient food

chain in the face of climate change will require comple-

mentary adaptations in other sectors – transport, built

environment and energy systems among others – and

should encourage greater integration and cooperation.

Some climate change mitigation measures may have

trade-offs, which need to be managed by appropriately

designing mitigation measures, and by assessing their

local suitability. For example, under certain conditions,

afforestation of high nature value land can damage

biodiversity, and zero tillage regimes can result in

increased herbicide use. The impacts on soil carbon

content should be fully considered if, for example, crop

and wood residues are massively used to generate

power instead of integrating them in the soil.

Moreover, certain policies can lead to a displacement of

emissions, including to third countries. The contribution of

agriculture to mitigation should be considered not only in

terms of the reduction of GHG emissions in the EU, but also

within the wider perspective of global GHG emissions. In

some cases, there is a risk of displacing food production,

e.g. to countries outside the EU, leading to emissions

there from transport, the production itself and from land

use change, such as deforestation. For instance, bioen-

ergy has been a controversial issue since it has potential

consequences in terms of land use giving rise to potential

conflicts between food production and energy.

2. Consider a local approach

Because of the different trade-offs and large regional

differences in mitigation and adaptation potential of

different options, it is necessary to tailor policy measures

to site and farming-specific conditions.

Differences are influenced by a number of factors such as

farm characteristics (size, location, yields, level of inputs),

climatic and environmental conditions (land and soil char-

acteristics, water availability), the degree to which mitigation

measures compete with traditional agricultural practices

and profitability (e.g., extensive grazing systems or fertiliza-

tion), and the incentives in place such as financial support.

The varied mix of land cover and use types (landscape

composition), their spatial arrangement (landscape

structure) implies the need for an integrated landscape

management system that encompasses the implica-

tions and solutions mentioned in previous chapters.

Landowners and land managers must be encouraged

to seek complementary solutions to common prob-

lems, including the ones arising from climate change1.

3. Promote the provision of

environmental goods and services

Landowners and land managers are in the best position

to mitigate against climate change, not only through

contributing to sequestration of carbon in soils and

biomass but also by providing habitats, biodiversity and

other environmental benefits that society wants, either

because they are the only ones who can do this or

because they can do it at lowest cost.

Emissions are a real cost, however. There is no

credit / debit system in place to account for emissions

in most land-based sectors. Also, at present, important

resources such as a clean atmosphere, biodiversity and

the aesthetic beauty of Europe’s landscapes are under-

valued or not valued at all, and thus subject to market

failure. The aim should be to assign values so these

public goods are fully taken into account.

1The relationship between climate change and land is complex. The HERCULES project develops tools to deal with such complexity through landscape approaches. Read more at http://www.hercules-landscapes.eu

2The RISE’s study on Public Goods focuses on the nature and scale of public goods and services which land managers (farmers and foresters) currently provide. Read more here: http://www.risefoundation.eu/images/pdf/report_public_goods_uk_%28full_report%29.pdf

2322

Placing a value on environmental goods and services2, like

carbon, is important to ensure incentives are in place to

tackle challenges such as climate change. There is a need

to explore the potential for market-based solutions such as

tax credits, incentives and direct payment for ecosystem

services, particularly as conservation management to

tackle climate change and other environmental problems

is often longer-term and rewarding when done by voluntary

initiatives and activities from private land managers.

Examples are the agri-environment and forest environ-

ment schemes, which represent an important part of

EU rural policy and that pay land managers to deliver

public environmental benefits. Other examples, while

still not perfect, are the systems of habitat banking and

biodiversity offsetting, whereby developers are required

to provide offsets to replace the loss of biodiversity as a

condition of obtaining planning permission.

4. Promote a sustainable

bioeconomy

Globally, climate impacts on agriculture will take place

against a backdrop of increasing global demand for

food, farmers will be asked to feed nine billion people by

2050 with fewer resources, resulting in more land coming

into production and expectations of higher prices for

inputs, such as energy and fertiliser. The challenges of

producing more with less are not to be understated.

A way of using resources more efficiently is by moving

towards a circular economy rather than a traditional

linear economy; by keeping resources in use for as long

as possible and recovering them whenever possible3.

For instance, bio-waste, including food waste, is estimated

at up to 138 million tons per year in the EU (of which up

to 40% goes to land-fill) and has high potential added

value as a feedstock for other productive processes.

The concept of sustainable intensification4 must be

promoted as it integrates the idea of increasing food

production while optimising the sector’s contribution to

greenhouse gas mitigation and sequestration.

We must move towards sustainable primary produc-

tion and processing systems that can produce more

food, fibre and other bio-based products, including

agro-materials, bioplastics and bio-chemicals, with

fewer inputs, reduced environmental impact and

reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

Intensifying the sustainable production of renewable

resources from land, fisheries and aquaculture

environments and their conversion into food, feed, fibre

bio-based products and bio-energy as well as related

public goods is contributing to the bio-economy.

Promoting a bio-economy means relying more heavily

on renewable biological resources, thus contributing to

a more resilient rural economy which is vital if we are to

deal with future uncertainties, such as climate change.

5. Promote innovation

The mitigation potential linked to further productivity

increases in the EU is likely to be limited so the declining

trend in agriculture emissions cannot be expected to

continue without further research on ways to achieve

optimal land use.

Environmentally friendly production practices require a

better understanding of the long-term effects of agriculture

and forestry on the environment. Agriculture and

forestry have become know-how and capital intensive

and require more research and development and more

innovative capital investment.

Further improvements in productivity are possible,

based on continuous research in plant and animal

varieties (namely drought-resistant and disease

resistant varieties), progress in farming techniques, and

the development of new fertilizers. The bioenergy sector

is still developing and there is a need for continuous

research on this front, including the storage of energy.

Apart from the transfer of knowledge and best practice,

European policies should facilitate the gathering, analysis

and use of data. Rural areas must be part of the digital

era, making the most of smartphones, drones or

satellite sensors.

There is also a need to streamline the approval,

authorisation and commercialisation of biotechnologies.

Such technology often remains too costly and its broad

accessibility is still an issue that needs to be addressed.

There are huge potential upsides for European society

in nutrition, in productivity and in biodiversity, even if the

climate worsens.

6. Capacity building

Policies must be followed by proper incentives.

For instance, enabling landowners to enter on carbon

markets would be an important step. Currently, most

of the “land sector” is not included in international

efforts in this area but its contribution should not be

disregarded.

The investment costs for adaptation and mitigation

often fall on landowners and land managers dispropor-

tionally or are too high for them to act on their own, for

instance when dealing with investments in water infra-

structure systems. Such systems may be important not

only for farmers planning to use irrigation technologies,

but also because of their effects on other parts of the

economy and local communities through, for example,

providing extra benefits such as additional sources of

drinking water and recreational areas.

The CAP remains a major tool, but as the challenges

increase and the budgets decrease, alternative ways of

supporting rural businesses should be considered.

While adaptation to gradual change is manageable,

adaptation to unpredictable catastrophic events is

much more difficult.

Providing accurate and detailed information allows

private agents to make timely, well informed and

efficient adaptation decisions. Public and semi-public

research and development programmes should provide

tools for farmers to assess and manage their risks.

For instance weather forecasting or early warning

systems would allow farmers to undertake early action

to minimise the negative effects of extreme events.

Training, education and extension services also have

the potential to increase the resilience of rural areas to

future climate change, particularly as GHG emissions

are invisible and climate change is global and often

perceived as far-away and, for many, difficult to

comprehend.

CAP policy instruments post 2014

Pillar 1 greening measures:

› Require crop diversification on larger tillage farms

› Require Ecological Focus Areas on larger

tillage farms

› Maintain permanent pasture area at national level

› Cross compliance GAEC 4-6 address soil

carbon maintenance

Pillar 2:

› Three cross-cutting objectives: Innovation,

Environment, climate change

› Six priorities, including knowledge transfer

and innovation, enhancing ecosystems and

resource efficiency.

3The RISE’s project on Nutrient recovery and reuse reviews the issues, opportunities, actions and policies related to nutrient use and nutrient recovery and reuse in European Agriculture. Read it here: http://www.risefoundation.eu/projects/nutrient-recycling-and-recovery

4Sustainable Intensification is defined as a simultaneous improvement in productivity and environmental management of agricultural land in the RISE’s report with the same name. The report highlighted the importance of devising measurement tools for environmental farming performance and encouraging farmers and private actors to implement changes in practices in addition to a better enforcement of existing environmental regulations. Read more here: http://www.risefoundation.eu/images/pdf/si%202014_%20full%20report.pdf

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25

V. Conclusions1. Climate change is a very serious challenge for society and impacts on rural areas and land-based sectors.

2. European agriculture must continue to contribute to food security while improving its overall environmental

performance, including reducing its impact on the climate.

3. The development of EU agriculture over past decades has been characterised by a steady increase in productivity,

in both crop and animal production, while the EU agricultural GHG emissions have declined. However, without

additional efforts, this trend is not likely to continue.

4. There is unused potential for cost-effective climate mitigation activities in EU agriculture and forestry. Policies

will need to encourage and facilitate the changes necessary for a more efficient use of natural resources to

achieve better agricultural and environmental outputs. Concepts such as Sustainable Intensification and a more

encouraging attitude to innovation would certainly contribute to these goals.

5. Landowners must retain the flexibility to implement climate adaptation and mitigation strategies to address

changing circumstances. Although the optimal land use mix for any given area will depend on local conditions,

its success is also dependent on information, education, advice and training.

6. Landowners and land managers are already undertaking climate adaptation work and often do so without

government intervention. However, when such work provides both private and public benefits, the public sector

need to play to better align privately profitable actions with socially desirable outcomes.

7. The viability of farms is a necessary basis for climate-friendly farming practices to become more widespread.

There is also a need to improve awareness and technical knowledge among landowners and managers on

climate change mitigation so that, in their daily decisions, they can build such knowledge into their economic

decision making.

Conclusions

2726

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