Chapter 17

Population and Urbanization

Chapter Outline Using the Sociological Imagination The Dynamics of Demography Population Growth Theories of City Growth The Quality of Urban Life

Demography Encompasses all measures of

population: size, distribution, composition, age

structure, and change. Draws from biology, geography,

mathematics, economics, sociology, and political science.

Demographic research Formal demography

Example: The dramatic increase in the Latino population of California and Texas.

Social demography Example: Trends in the population

shifts of aging baby boomers.

Study of Population Trends Provides information about:

Population growth. Characteristics of population. Location of population. Probable long- and short-run

effects of demographic trends.

World Population Growth

Population Projections by World Regions

Population (projected) in millions

Region 2002 2025 2050 Doubling Time (yrs)

North America

316 382 450 139

Asia 3,720 4,714 5,262 50

Oceania 31 40 46 63

Population Projections by World Regions

Population (projected) in millions

Region 2002 2025 2050 Doubling Time (yrs)

Latin America

525 697 815 41

Africa 818 1,268 1,800 29

Europe 727 717 662Not

projected to occur

Malthusian Perspective1. Population, if left unchecked, will tend to

exceed the food supply. 2. Checks on population can be positive

(famines, wars) or preventive (birth control).

3. For the poor, any improvement in income is lost to additional births.

4. The wealthy and better educated already exercise preventive checks.

Projected Population of the U.S.: 2 or 3 Child Average per Family

Demographic Transition Theory: Four Stages Stage 1.

Birth rate and the death rate are high.

Population growth is modest.

Demographic Transition Theory: Four Stages Stage 2.

Birth rate remains high. Death rate begins to drop sharply

because of sanitation, increased food production, medical advances.

Rate of population growth is very high. Most sub-Saharan African countries are

presently at this stage.

Demographic Transition Theory: Four Stages Stage 3.

The birth rate declines sharply. Because the death rate continues

to drop, population growth is still rapid.

Demographic Transition Theory: Four Stages Stage 4.

Birth rate and the death rate are low.

Population grows slowly if at all. North America, Europe, and Japan

are at this stage today.

Stages of the Demographic Transition

Possible World Population Growth Scenarios Low scenario

Fertility will have fallen to 1.6 children per woman or less.

World population will peak at 7.7 billion in 2050 and drop to 3.6 billion by the middle of the twenty-first century.

World Population Growth ScenariosMedium scenario Depicts zero population growth—deaths

are balanced by births so population does not grow.

Women average two children. World population will rise to 9.4 billion by

2050 and continue to 11 billion in 2150 before leveling off.

Possible World Population Growth Scenarios High Scenario

Women worldwide will average about 2.5 children.

World population will rise to 11.2 billion in 2050 and continue to grow indefinitely, exceeding 27 billion 100 years later.

Long-Range Projections of World Population

Population Growth in the U.S. andOther More Developed Countries

Population Growth in the United States Population of the U.S. has grown from less

than 4 million in the first census in 1790, to 288 million in 2002.

Population is expected to continue growing despite the average American family at replacement level of 2.1 children per family.

If the current predictions are accurate, the U.S. population will reach 420 million by 2050.

Urbanization

Only 5% of the American population lived in urban areas in 1790.

As recently as 1800, less than 3% of the world’s population lived in cities of 20,000 or more.

45% of the world’s population now lives in urban areas.

In North America, 80% of the population lives in cities.

World’s Ten Largest Urban Areas: 1000

Place (Million) Place (Million)

Cordova 0.45 Cairo 0.14

Kaifeng 0.40 Baghdad 0.13

Constantinople 0.30 Nishapur 0.13

Angkor 0.20 Hasa 0.11

Kyoto 0.18 Anhilvada 0.10

World’s Ten Largest Urban Areas: 1800

Place (Million) Place (Million)

Peking 1.10 Paris 0.55

London 0.86 Naples 0.43

Canton 0.80 Hangchow 0.39

Edo 0.69 Osaka 0.38

Constantinople 0.57 Kyoto 0.38

World’s Ten Largest Urban Areas: 1900

Place (Million) Place (Million)

London 6.5 Vienna 1.7

New York 4.2 Tokyo 1.5

Paris 3.3 St. Petersburg 1.4

Berlin 2.7 Manchester 1.4

Chicago 1.7 Philadelphia 1.4

World’s Ten Largest Urban Areas: 2001

Place (Million) Place (Million)

Tokyo 26.5 Los Angeles 13.3

São Paulo 18.3 Calcutta 13.3

Mexico City 18.3 Dhaka 13.2

New York 16.8 Delhi 13.0

Mumbai 16.5 Shanghai 12.8

Theories of City Growth

Theoretical Perspectives: Urban Society

Functionalism

Concept Urbanization

Sample Research Topic

Relationship between population density and suicide rate.

Theoretical Perspectives: Urban Society

Conflict theory

Concept Over-urbanization

Sample Research Topic

Relationship between distribution of scarce resources and social class.

Theoretical Perspectives: Urban Society

Symbolic Interactionism

Concept Urbanism

Sample Research Topic

Effect of the degree of urbanization and the extent to which social interaction is based on shared meanings.