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Changing Minds about Climate Change

Paul ThagardUniversity of Waterloo

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Outline

1. Belief revision2. Motivated resistance3. Changing minds4. Multilevel systems 5. Changing systems6. Conclusions

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Climate Change Controversies

• Is climate changing?• Why is it changing?

• Natural fluctuation• Human CO2 emission

• What should be done about it?

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Scientific Belief Revision1. Identify issue and relevant hypotheses.2. Identify relevant evidence. 3. Accept hypotheses that offer the best

overall explanation of the evidence.4. Need to consider overall coherence of

hypotheses with evidence and each other.

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Explanatory Coherence

• Use artificial neural network to model explanatory coherence (Thagard 1992, Conceptual Revolutions; 2000, Coherence in Thought and Action)

• Represent hypotheses and evidence by neuron-like units.

• Represent each relations between them by excitatory and inhibitory links.

• Spread activation between units to maximize coherence.

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Application to Climate ChangeGreenhouse effect

warms planet.

Global temperatures are rising.

Recent temperature increases are rapid.

Humans increase greenhouse gases.

Humans cause global warming.

Global warming is natural fluctuation.

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Application to Climate Change

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Motivated Resistance

• Evidence about climate change is weak.

• Humans are not the causes of global warming.

• Avoid measures that would hurt the economy.

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Emotional Coherence

• Motivated inference: belief acceptance is affected by personal goals as well as evidence (Kunda 1990).

• Acceptance and rejection are emotional as well as cognitive states (Harris 2007).

• What people believe is a function of their goals as well as the evidence (Thagard 2006, Hot Thought).

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Application to Climate Change Greenhouse effect

warms planet.

Global temperatures are rising.

Humans increase greenhouse gases.

Humans cause global warming.

Global warming is natural fluctuation.

Avoid government intervention.

Avoid oil limitations.

EVIDENCE VALUES

Recent temperature increases are rapid.

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Changing Minds

1. Belief revision in the face of resistance often requires emotional change as well: goals, values, motivations.

2. Explanation of belief change is not just psychological: also social, neural, molecular. Agent modeling, more realistic neural modeling.

3. Minds are multilevel complex systems.

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Apply Complex Systems Theory?

1. Artificial and real neural networks are complex dynamical adaptive systems.

2. Variables, equations, state space, attractors, chaos, phase transitions, nonlinear dynamics, self-organization, emergent properties, etc.

3. But what does this add to explanation, and especially to planning to change minds and societies?

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Multilevel Mechanisms

• Human thinking is best explained in terms of multilevel mechanisms (Bechtel 2008, Mental Mechanisms; Craver, Explaining the Brain, 2007; Thagard, Hot Thought, 2006; Bunge, Chasing Reality, 2005).

• A mechanism is a system of parts whose interactions produce regular changes.

• Mechanism levels relevant to belief change: social, psychological, neural, molecular.

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Multilevel Explanation 1

social

psychological

neural

molecular

REDUCTION

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Multilevel Explanation 2

social

psychological

neural

molecular

REDUCTION DOWNWARD

social

psychological

neural

molecular

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Multilevel Explanation 3

social

psychological

neural

molecular

REDUCTION DOWNWARD AUTONOMY

social

psychological

neural

molecular

social

psychological

neural

molecular

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Multilevel Explanation 4

social

psychological

neural

molecular

REDUCTION DOWNWARD AUTONOMY INTERACTION

social

psychological

neural

molecular

social

psychological

neural

molecular

social

psychological

neural

molecular

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Causality

A causes B:P(B/A) > P(B/not-A).Manipulating A changes B.A transfers energy to B.

E.g. Smoking causes cancer.Social stress causes cortisol production.

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Social Stress

Social situation (e.g. insult)-> perception (thalamus, etc.) -> emotion (amygdala, etc.) ->hypothalamus (CRH) ->pituitary (ACTH) ->adrenal glands ->cortisol

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Conjectures About Changing Multilevel Systems: 1

1. To change a multilevel system, intervene at all accessible levels.• Depression: use cognitive therapy

(psychological, social) and anti-depressants (molecular, neural).

• Cardio-rehabilitation: use drugs (molecular), exercise (cellular), diet education (psychological), and stress reduction (social).

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Conjectures About Changing Multilevel Systems: 2a

2a. To change a level, intervene on the parts and interactions of the relevant mechanism.• Change the properties of the parts, e.g. replace

a broken tire. • Change the interactions between parts, e.g. put

the chain back on the wheel.

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Conjectures About Changing Multilevel Systems: 2b

2b. To change a feedback mechanism, intervene on the loops.

enhancebeneficial

block harmful

positive feedback

economic growth

global warming & polar melting

negativefeedback

cholesterol drugs

inflammation

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Changing Multilevel Systems: 3

3. To change interactions between levels, intervene on part-whole relations.

enhancebeneficial

block harmful

positive feedback

group enthusiasm

group hysteriaco-rumination

negativefeedback

social control peer pressure vs. success

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Changing Multilevel Systems: 4

4. Coordinate interventions at multiple levels.• Avoid negative interactions.• Aim for synergistic effects, e.g. drugs, diet,

exercise.

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Implications for Climate Change

1. Intervene at all accessible levels: individual psychology (beliefs, attitudes), social organizations (local, national, global).

2. Understand mechanisms at each level.3. Understand interactions between levels,

e.g. social/psychological.4. Coordinate interventions.

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Conclusions

1. Belief revision is an emotional as well as a cognitive process.

2. Humans are multilevel systems.

3. Change requires interventions at all levels.

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