chalmers energy conference │ may 15, 2013...chalmers university of technology 1 spatial building...

Chalmers University of Technology 1

Spatial Building Stock Modelling as a means towards the 2000 watt society in the city of Zurich Prof. Dr. Holger Wallbaum Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sustainable building

Chalmers Energy Conference │ May 15, 2013


2000 Watt society

Source: Fachstelle 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft


The formula

2000 Watt x 24 h x 365 days

= 17 520 kWh


2050

2005

An Ambitious Vision: 2000-Watt-Society

Year

Non Fossil Fossil Embodied Energy

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

Wat

t per

Cap

ita

500

2000

1 t CO2

Source: Fachstelle 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft


The role of buildings

Source: SIA Efficiency path energy

TODAY

GOAL SIA Path to Efficiency

e.g. industry, agriculture, leisure time, etc. office schools

3 U

SES

5 SU

BJEC

T AR

EAS building

materials

mobility

lighting and appliances

hot water

interior climate

3 TA

RG

ET G

RO

UPS

Measures for:

politicians + public authorities investors

planners


All human activities are involved

Energy demand (Watt per Capita) today and in a 2000 Watt society

Housing and Workplace

Infrastructure Electricity Automobiles Air Travel Public Transportation

Consumer Goods, Food

Energy Demand in Watts (rounded)

Swiss Family with 4 people today (about 6300 Watts)

Swiss Family with 4 people in the 2000-Watt Society


Switzerland Status 2005

Goal 2050

2050 / 2005

Primary energy, total [W/P] (*) 6300 3500 -44%

Primary energy, non-renewable [W/P] (**) 5800 2000 -66%

Greenhouse gas emissions [t CO2-eq./P] (*) 8.7 2.0 -77%

(*) Methodikpapier Bebie et al. (2009): Grundlagen für ein Umsetzungskonzept der 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft am Beispiel der Stadt Zürich, 28. Mai 2009 (**) TEP Energy, ETH Zurich

Source: Bébié et al. (2009), ETH Zürich, TEP Energy

Two goals: 2000 Watt and 1t CO2

ETH Zurich, Chair of Sustainable Construction Chalmers University of Technology


Building stock model: structure Results

-Primary Energy -GHG-Emissions

Residential Buildings -Scenario selection -Final energy carrier

Non-resid. Buildings -Scenario selection -Final energy carrier

Visualisation -Graphs -Tables

Results Primary Energy GHG-Emissions

Results Final Energy

Quantity structure

Specific consumption

Useful Energy

Heat and WW

(Qh SIA 380/1)

Ventilation -Diffusion -Elect.-demand and heat recovery

-Floor Area by Building Type (SFH, MFH) -Households, Population

-Diffusion Appliances -Conversion factors

Electricity -Washing,

Dishwasher -Lighting

Useful Energy

Heat and WW

(Qh SIA 380/1)

Ventilation -Diffusion -Elect.-demand and heat recovery

Electricity -ICET

-Lighting -Cooling

- Product Cool. -Processes

-Floor Area by Building Type -Number of Employees

-Diffusion Appliances, Building Technology -Conversion factors

Calibration -Energy statistics

- Potentials

Inpu

t

Structure Conversion Sector (e.g. Electricity, District Heating) Conversion and Emission Factors (PEF, GHG, LCA)

Energy carrier heating, hot water Market share new buildings, substitution

Energy carrier heating, hot water Market share new buildings, substitution

End use energy structure



Results in comparison

Zurich Switzerland

Criterion Base 2005

Effic. 2050

Δ 2005 / 2050

Base 2005

Effic. 2050

Δ 2005 / 2050

Final energy [W/P] 1‘666 931 -44% 1‘422 1029 -28%

whereof electricity [W/P] 501 396 -21% 412 364 -12%

PE, total [W/P] 2‘762 1‘208 -56% 2‘389 1‘517 -37%

PE, non-renewable [W/P] 2‘454 237 -90% 2‘013 793 -61%

GHG-emissions [t CO2-eq./P] 2.83 0.39 -86% 3.15 0.94 -70% Source: ETH Zürich, TEP Energy

Materials Comfort Light & appliances

Warm water

Mobility

190 W 134 W 250 W 76 W 190W 22% 16% 30% 10% 22%

840 Watts


Energy policy measurments 7 milestones (MS) of the city of Zurich, applied to office, school and residentila buildings

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2005 2030 2050

[t CO

2-äq

./P]

Treibhausgasemissionen

Basisszenario

MS1

MS2

MS3

MS4

MS1-4

Base scenario MS1 – new construction Minergie MS2 – refurbishment Minergie MS3 – efficient appliances MS4 – renewable energies Cumulated effect all MS

Source: ETH Zürich, TEP Energy

Greenhouse gas emissions


Up to 30 years 31 – 50 years 51 – 70 years 71 – 120 years Over 120 years

Spatial distribution of building ages • Construction

period • Building type • Listed

Holger Wallbaum 11



Develop further New orientation Preservation Core zones Area conservation zones I Area conservation zones II Source: Gebietsspezifische Entwicklungen (from RES, AfS)

Efficiency potentials, new buildings, densification

Holger Wallbaum 12


Spatial differentiation demand High rise building plan

High rise building plan

High rise building zone I High rise building zone II High rise building zone III


Source: AWEL

Heat pipes, not allowed

Heat pipes, not allowed, cancelled

Heat pipies, not allowed, expanded

Heat pipes, with additional restrictions

Heat pipies, with additional restrictions, expanded

Local availability of renewable energies Heat pipe prohibition and water protection zones

Holger Wallbaum 14


• Renewable energies • Energy demand

- Density - Inlet/supply temperature - Energy efficiency

Spatial types: Homogenous areas for energy supply and potentials

Holger Wallbaum 15


Results case study Altstetten Changes heated floor area 2010 to 2050


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

EBF Anz. Eigen-tümer:

50


183


184

EBF Anz. Eigen-tümer: 17'530

Grösste 50 Eigentümer: 24% der EBF

Eigent. > 10'000 m2: 39% der EBF

übrige Eigentümer <10'000 m2

Alle Wohneigent.: 100%= 19.5 Mio m2

VereinStiftung

Einzelpersonen

Mehrere nat. Personen

Pensionskassen

AG, GmbH u.a.

And. öffentl. Eigentümer

Stadt Zürich

Genossenschaft

Heated floor area

No. of bld.

owners

50

Heated floor area

No. of bld.

owners

183

Heated floor area

No. of bld.

owners

184

Heated floor area

No. of bld.

owners

17’530

Largest 50 bld. owner

24% HFA

Owner > 10’000 m2 39% HFA

Other owner < 10’000 m2

All owner: 100% = 19.5 m2

Association/Foundation

Single Person

Multiple nat. Person

Pension funds

AG, GmbH etc.

Other public owner

City of Zurich

Co-operative housing

Structure of building owners Residential buildings

Holger Wallbaum 17


Spatial differentiation: demand-side Heating demand of the 10 largest building owner

Source: City of Zurich Analysis TEP Energy


• London • Zurich • Göteborg

Smart Urban Adapt

Holger Wallbaum 19


Goal of SUA project Building stock model and GIS warehouse

Creation of spatial zones > Demand: - urban planning - construction new buildings - demolition - population > Supply: - renewable potentials

GIS warehouse Building stock model

Pre-Calculation Spatial representation - By Building, - By Hectare - By zone - etc.

- Scenario - Diffusion rates - Retrofit rate, energy impact - Substitution Energy •Useful energy by service •Final energy by energy carrier •Primary energy GHG, local air pollutants Indicators by floor area

GIS-Input: - quantity structure - spatial zones

Output: differentiated indicators (e.g. MJ/m2) by cohort

Aggregation (creation of cohorts) of spatial building information : - Building type, constr. period - Occupation - Spatial zone

Sour

ce: C

halm

ers,

TEP

Ene

rgy


Publications • Wallbaum H., Heeren N., Gabathuler M., Jakob M., (2009). Gebäudeparkmodell SIA

Effizienzpfad Energie, Dienstleistungs- und Wohngebäude - Vorstudie zum Gebäudeparkmodell Schweiz – Grundlagen zur Überarbeitung des SIA Effizienzpfades Energie. I.A. Bundesamt für Energie (BFE), Bern, Juli

• Wallbaum H., Heeren N., Jakob M., Gross N., Martius G., (2010). Gebäudeparkmodell Büro-, Schul- und Wohngebäude - Vorstudie zur Erreichbarkeit der Ziele der 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft für den Gebäudepark der Stadt Zürich. I.A. Stadt Zürich, Fachstelle für Nachhaltiges Bauen, Zürich, Juni

• Wallbaum H., Heeren N., Jakob M., Gross N., (2010). 7-Meilenschritte – Wirkungsanalyse anhand der Gebäudeparkmodells Zürich . I.A. Stadt Zürich, Fachstelle für Nachhaltiges Bauen, Zürich, Mai

• Heeren, N.; Wallbaum, H.; Jakob, M. (2012): Towards a 2000 Watt society – assessing buildings specific saving potentials of the Swiss residential building stock. International Journal of Sustainable Building Technology and Urban Development, May 2012: 43-49. DOI: 10.1080/2093761X.2012.673917.

• Heeren, N.; Jakob, M; Martius, G.; Gross, N.; Wallbaum, H. (2013): A component based bottom-up building stock model for comprehensive environmental impact assessment and target control. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 20 (April 2013): 45-56. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2012.11.064.

• Jakob, M., Wallbaum, H., Catenazzi1, G., Martius, G., Fürst, M., Nägeli, C., Sunarjo, B.: Spatial building stock modelling to assess energy-efficiency and renewable energy in an urban context. CISBAT 2013, September 4-6, 2013, EPF Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.


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chalmers energy conference │ may 15, 2013...chalmers university of technology 1 spatial building...

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