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CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY PATHWAYS FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

ALLIANCE FOR GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY BOOKSERIESSCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: TOOLS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

VOLUME 15

Series Editor Dr. Joanne M. Kauffman6–8, rue du Général Camou75007 [email protected]

Series Advisory Board

Professor Dr. Peter EdwardsSwiss Federal Institute of Technology – Zurich, Switzerland

Dr. John H. GibbonsPresident, Resource Strategies, The Plains, VA, USA

Professor David H. MarksMassachusetts Institute of Technology, USA

Professor Mario MolinaUniversity of California, San Diego, USA

Professor Greg MorrisonChalmers University of Technology, Sweden

Dr. Rajendra PachauriDirector, The Energy Resources Institute (TERI), India

Professor Akimasa SumiUniversity of Tokyo, Japan

Professor Kazuhiko TakeuchiUniversity of Tokyo, Japan

Aims and Scope of the Series

The aim of this series is to provide timely accounts by authoritative scholars of the res-ults of cutting edge research into emerging barriers to sustainable development, andmethodologies and tools to help governments, industry, and civil society overcomethem. The work presented in the series will draw mainly on results of the researchbeing carried out in the Alliance for Global Sustainability (AGS).The level of presentation is for graduate students in natural, social and engineering sci-ences as well as policy and decision-makers around the world in government, industryand civil society.

Climate Change and EnergyPathways for the Mediterranean

Workshop Proceedings, Cyprus

Edited by

Ernest J. MonizMassachusetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge, MA, U.S.A.

ISBN 978-1-4020-4858-6 (HB)ISBN 978-1-4020-5774-8 (e-book)

Published by Springer,P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

www.springer.com

Printed on acid-free paper

All Rights Reserved

No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmittedin any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recordingor otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exceptionof any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being enteredand executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.

© 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Library of Congress Control Number: 2008920051

Chairman:

Mr. Lars G. Josefsson, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vattenfall AB

AGS University Presidents:

Prof. Hiroshi Komiyama, President, University of Tokyo Dr. Susan Hockfield, President, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Prof. Karin Markides, President, Chalmers University of Technology Prof. Ralf Eichler, President, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich

Members:

Mr. Eiichi Abe, Managing Director, Nissan Science Foundation Dr. Thomas Connelly, Chief Science and Technology Officer, DuPont Prof. Jakob Nüesch, Honorary Member, International Committee of the Red Cross Mr. Kentaro Ogawa, Chairman of the Board & CEO, Zensho Co., Ltd. Mr. Kazuo Ogura, President, The Japan Foundation Mr. Dan Sten Olsson, CEO, Stena AB Mr. Motoyuki Ono, Director General, The Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Mr. Mutsutake Otsuka, Chairman, East Japan Railway Company Mr. Simon Pitts, Executive Director, Ford-MIT Alliance, Ford Motor Company Mr. Alexander Schärer, President of the Board, USM U. Schärer Söhne AG Dr. Stephan Schmidheiny, President, Avina Foundation Ms. Margot Wallström, Vice President, European Commission Prof. Hiroyuki Yoshikawa, President, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology Dr. Hans-Rudolf Zulliger, President, Third Millenium Foundation, Board of Directors, Amazys Ltd.

Table of Contents

Preface ix

1. A Global Perspective on Climate Change 1R.K. Pachauri, M. Chand

15E. Ozsoy

3. An Outlook on the European Gas Market 33J. Kjarstad, F. Johnsson

4. Sequestration – The Underground Storage of Carbon Dioxide 61S. Holloway

5. Climate Change and Energy Pathways for the Mediterranean 89O. Schafer

6. Global Bioenergy Resources and Utilization Technologies 101H. Yamamoto

7. Perspectives in Nuclear Energy 113B. Frois

8. Efficiency in Oil Use and Alternatives to Oil 127M.K. Eberle

9. An Overview of H2 Fuel for Use in the Transportation Sector 145R.J. Allam

vii

Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean2. Current Understanding of Environmental and Water Resource

viii Table of Contents

10. European Transportation in the Greenhouse – System and PolicyIndicators 163H. Gudmundsson

11. European Automobile CO2 Emissions: From Forecasts to Reality 193T. Zachariadis

12. Implications for the Oil and Gas Industries 207W. Khadduri

Author Biographies 225

Preface

Ernest J. Moniz, Editor

The Alliance for Global Sustainability (AGS) – comprised of Chalmers University, ETH-Zurich, MIT, and the University of Tokyo − and the Cy-prus Research and Educational Foundation (CREF) jointly hosted a work-shop in Nicosia, Cyprus on Climate Change and Energy Pathways for the Mediterranean. Participants came from fourteen countries. This workshop is intended to be the first of many that engage Cyprus, through CREF and its Cyprus Institute, as an important convenor for discussions that bring science, technology, and analysis to bear on critical issues facing the re-gion – the eastern Mediterranean, northern Africa, the Middle East.

Climate change is a fitting topic for this initial discussion. It clearly ranks as an issue of overarching importance for the 21st century because of its centrality to global environmental, energy, economic, and security con-cerns, and this region faces major challenges in each of these areas. The workshop agenda was designed to initiate dialogue in several of these di-mensions.

There is little doubt that human activity materially impacts the atmos-phere. Annual carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion alone equal roughly a percent of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 content, and these emissions are likely to grow rapidly as developing economies ma-ture. This is of concern since long-standing expectations of the conse-quences of, say, doubling pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations are for average global temperature rise of several degrees over a relatively short period. We are on track for such a doubling around mid-century. A major response of the global energy infrastructure to dramatically decrease CO2 emissions over this time period must begin in the very near term be-cause of the high degree of inertia of the capital-intensive energy industry.

The specific regional consequences of global warming are less under-stood but crucially important for the realities of public policy evolution. This workshop aims to contribute to a discussion for the eastern Mediter-ranean. For example, this region is clearly very sensitive to any shift in

ix

x Ernest J. Moniz

water resource availability. Global warming may exacerbate an already volatile situation. The workshop discussion served to emphasize how un-certainty about regional impacts may be of such consequence that prudent actions are called for in the near term, rather than serving as an excuse for inaction.

The second question is then what to do about it. Climate risk mitigation has three major pathways: mitigation through significant greenhouse gas reductions, with profound implications for the global energy system; adap-tation measures tailored to different situations, both physical and eco-nomic; active large-scale re-engineering of the atmosphere (and potentially the oceans and biosphere as well) to compensate for both anthropogenic and natural drivers. These pathways are listed in an order that is generally thought to correspond to increasing risk. The workshop focused on miti-gation pathways involving new “carbon-free” (or at least carbon-light) technologies and associated EU policy in the electricity and transportation sectors. The electricity sector in particular is likely to be the target of early action since it has large point sources of carbon dioxide emissions. These sectors may become increasingly linked if electricity use grows as a trans-portation “fuel”, thereby somewhat exacerbating the challenge of carbon-free electricity at the multi-terawatt scale.

A third question is that of regional economic dislocation as developed nations, a significant fraction of which make up the EU, implement climate risk mitigation policies. The workshop focused on the implication for the oil and gas industries, which clearly represent the majority of economic ac-tivity in many states in the Middle East and northern Africa. Here, climate policy aligns with security policy, as many developed nations attempt to diminish their oil dependence. This is reflected in the strong emphasis growing on automotive efficiency, biofuels development, and revival of full or partial electric car concepts, all of which would serve to lower oil demand and to introduce elasticity into the transportation fuels market. One consequence is to have calls for reliability of supply by the oil-consuming countries answered by calls for reliability of demand by the oil-producing countries. The workshop addressed this issue through a distin-guished panel including, among others, representatives from OPEC and from Greenpeace.

This last workshop panel exemplifies the aspirations of CREF and the Cyprus Institute: to serve as a gateway between the EU and the eastern Mediterranean, north Africa, Middle East region for dialogue on important issues with strong scientific and technical content. This is done in the hope that analytically-based dialogue can lead to solutions in a critical part of the world that has many issues to resolve collectively. Perhaps the re-sponse to climate change can serve as a model.

1 A Global Perspective on Climate Change

R.K. Pachauri1, Madhavi Chand2

The relationship between human activities and climate change, involving both causes as well as impacts, has become a major issue of concern and interest all over the world. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the In-tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change informs us that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased from 280 ppm in the period 1000–1750 AD to 379 ppm in the year 2005. The terrestrial biospheric exchange had been a cumulative source of about 30 Gt C for the past two centuries but acted as a sink in the 1990s. The concentration of methane in the atmos-phere has more than doubled from 700 ppb in the period 1000–1750 AD, to reach a concentration of 1774 ppb in the year 2005. The concentrations of hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, SF6 and N2O have also in-creased. The tropospheric concentration of ozone has increased even though its stratospheric concentration has decreased. The rising emissions and concentrations of all these gases have led to numerous changes in global climate variables. The global mean surface temperature is very likely to have increased by 0.74±0.18°C during the hundred year period 1906−2005. Although the increase is spread out all over the globe, it is greater in the northern hemisphere, and land areas have warmed faster than the oceans. It is very likely that the number of hot days and hot nights has increased and the number of cold days, cold nights and frost has decreased for nearly all land areas. The continental precipitation has increased in the eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and central Asia. However, it has decreased in some regions of Africa, southern Asia and the Mediterranean. It is also likely that the area affected by drought has increased since 1970.

The global mean sea level has increased at an average annual rate of 1.8±0.5 mm from 1961 to 1993 and 3.1±0.7 mm from 1993 to 2003. How-

1 Director-General, TERI and Chairman, IPCC 2 Research Associate, TERI

E.J. Moniz (ed.), Climate Change and Energy Pathways for the Mediterranean, 1–14.© 2008 Springer.

2 R.K. Pachauri, Madhavi Chand

ever, it is unclear whether this latter increased rate should be attributed to a decadal variation or to an increase in the long term trend. The snow cover has decreased by 10% since global observations through satellites became available in the 1960s. Arctic sea ice extent and thickness has thinned by 40% during the late summer and early autumn seasons. El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense in the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. There has been a poleward and higher elevation shift for plant, insect, bird and fish ranges. In fact, there are many biological and physical indicators that show that they have been affected by the changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and weather conditions.

Thus we cannot deny that the climate is changing and that human activi-ties are partly, if not largely, responsible. In fact, the IPCC’s Third As-sessment Report has assessed that “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to hu-man activities.” Figure 1 shows a comparison between modelled and ob-served temperature rise since 1900 from AR4, which verifies that the an-thropogenic influence on the climate is indeed extremely significant, because when we explicitly account for natural as well as anthropogenic forcings, observations track extremely close to modelled changes.

Fig. 1. Verification of anthropogenic influence on rising temperatures through a comparison between modelled and observed temperature changes (Source: IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report)

Over and above explaining changes in the global climate from the past to the present, it is necessary to attempt projections of corresponding changes in the future. A number of projections were carried out in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for different sets of assumptions about the demographic, social, economic and technological developments in this century, without any climate policy interventions.

A Global Perspective on Climate Change 3

The CO2 concentration in the year 2100 is projected to range from 540 to 970 ppm, which is substantially higher than the 280 ppm in the pre-industrial era and 379 ppm in the year 2005.

This increase in CO2 concentration will result in a global average tem-perature rise of 1.4 to 5.8°C (range over all different scenarios) during the period from 1990 to 2100. This is over two to almost ten times larger than the warming in the 20th century and is very likely to be without precedent in the last 10,000 years. It is also very likely that nearly all land areas will continue to warm more than the global average.

The globally averaged annual precipitation is likely to increase during this century, though at the regional level there will be both increases and decreases of 5 to 20%. The glaciers in the northern hemisphere will con-tinue their widespread retreat. The Antarctic ice sheet is likely to gain mass and the Greenland ice sheet will lose mass. The increase in global precipi-tation and reduction of ice caps will cause the mean sea level to rise. The global mean sea level is projected to rise by 9 to 88 cm during the 21st century. Figure 2 shows the projected curves for increasing CO2 emissions and average temperature rise from 2000 to 2001.

Fig. 2. Projections for the 21st century for the different SRES scenarios. (Source: IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report)

The SRES reviews existing literature, most of which is based on market

exchange rates (the traditionally preferred measure for GDP growth, as opposed to purchasing power parity, which is currently the preferred measure for assessing differences in economic welfare). Major sources of estimates used come from the World Bank, the International Energy


Agency (IEA) and the US Department of Energy (USDoE), among others. Some IPCC scenarios are also based on purchasing power parity. Contrary to claims, IPCC scenarios are consistent with historical data, including those from 1990 to 2000, and with the most recent near term (up to 2020) projections of other agencies. Long-term emissions are based on multiple, interdependent driving forces, and not just economic growth.

In addition to the steadily rising temperatures, precipitation and sea level, the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases also lead to an in-crease in climate variability and extreme weather events. There are likely to be higher maximum temperatures and a larger number of hot days and heat waves over almost all land areas. The minimum temperatures are likely to increase more rapidly and a decrease in the number of cold days, frost days and cold waves is projected. This would lead to increased heat stress and decreased cold stress on the human population, wildlife and livestock. More intense precipitation events are projected, which would in-crease floods, landslides, avalanches and mudslide damage, and also in-crease soil erosion. However, increased runoff could increase recharge of some floodplain aquifers. Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors would intensify the risk of drought, cause damage to building foundations due to ground shrinkage and increase the risk of for-est fires. Intensification of tropical cyclones, etc., would be particularly detrimental for coastal areas and small island states. It is evident that pro-jected climate changes will have some beneficial and some adverse effects. However, as these changes become larger and more rapid, the adverse ef-fects will predominate. Changing climate impacts many aspects of civilisa-tion and natural ecosystems. Figure 3 indicates, in broad terms, this range of impacts.

Climate change can affect human health directly through morbidity as well as loss of life in floods and droughts and indirectly through changes in heat stress, cold stress, ranges of disease vectors, water quality, air quality and water and airborne pathogens. The actual health impacts in different parts of the world will depend on the local environmental conditions, and on the social, economic, technological and institutional measures imple-mented to minimise the adverse effects.

Agriculture is the biggest employer and a very large contributor to GDP in many developing economies. The ultimate role of agriculture in Asian and African regions is to provide food and fibre to the human population. The effects of climate change on agriculture are widespread and serious. Crop yields and patterns are susceptible to changes in precipitation, tem-perature and CO2 concentration and indirect effects like soil moisture and infestation of pests and diseases. Thus climate change poses a serious threat to global food security, especially as it has the potential to lower the


Impacts

Source: GRID Arendal

Fig. 3. The widespread impacts of a changing climate

incomes of vulnerable populations and increase the absolute number of people at risk of hunger.

Freshwater has been an extremely important aspect of civilisation throughout human history. It is essential for health, food production and sanitation, as well as for industrial processes and sustenance of ecosys-tems. The quality of water is likely to be degraded by higher temperatures, but this may be offset in some areas by increased flows. There are several indicators of water-related stress applicable to different parts of the world. If withdrawals are greater than 20% of the total resources, these could eas-ily be a limiting factor for development. Withdrawals of 40% or more rep-resent high stress. Similarly, water stress could be a problem if a country or region has less than 1700 m3/year of water per capita. In 1990 approxi-mately 33% of the people lived in countries using more than 20% of their water resources and by 2025 this fraction is likely to increase to 60%, sim-ply due to growth in population. In addition, higher temperatures could in-crease such stress conditions. Thus climate change will exacerbate water shortages in many parts of the world, particularly the areas that are already water-scarce.

Populations inhabiting small island states and coastal areas are at par-ticular risk of social and economic effects from sea level rise and storm surges. Human settlements in deltas, low-lying coastal areas and small is-


lands will face increased risk of coastal flooding, erosion and displace-ment. The areas at greatest risk are South and Southeast Asia, East Africa, West Africa and the Mediterranean, from Turkey to Algeria. Significant portions of highly-populated coastal cities are vulnerable to permanent land submergence and frequent coastal flooding. Essential resources like beaches, mangroves, freshwater, fisheries, coral reefs, etc., would also be at risk. Thus it is imperative that coastal areas and small island states ex-plore and implement suitable adaptation measures. Figure 4 connects adap-tation to the average number of people flooded by coastal storm surges an-nually.

Fig. 4. The two bars on the left show the average number of people flooded by coastal storm surges annually by 2080 for the present sea level and for a rise in sea level of ~40 cm, assuming that coastal protection is unchanged from the present. The two bars on the right show the same projections but assume that coastal pro-tection is enhanced proportional to GDP growth. (Source: IPCC TAR Synthesis Report)


Ecological productivity and biodiversity will be altered by climate change, with an increased risk of extinction for some vulnerable species. The increasing concentration of CO2 will initially increase productivity of some plants but climate change and disturbance regimes associated with it will eventually offset this initial increase. Some models project that the net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems will increase during the first half of the century and then level off or decline.

The impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately upon the de-veloping countries and the poorer sections of society in all countries. Hence it would accentuate levels of inequity between the developed and the developing countries as well as between the rich and the poor in all countries. Poverty and low income levels, lack of infrastructure, lack of training and education, inaccessibility to technological improvements, fewer job opportunities, misplaced incentives, inadequate legal systems and a degraded resource base are some of the problems faced by develop-ing countries, which make it difficult for them to exercise choices and im-plement adaptation and mitigation options, thus rendering them more vul-nerable to the impacts of climate change.

Thus, in order to reduce the vulnerability of certain societies to climate change, it is necessary to eradicate poverty. Research on the vulnerability of different societies and the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change, therefore, becomes urgent and important. It is difficult to determine how much of the economic decline of sub-Saharan Africa can be ascribed to the impacts of climate change, but similar climate effects in other vulnerable regions have been withstood by societies with higher incomes. An impor-tant preemptive strategy against the threat of climate change is the elimina-tion of poverty, a subject on which fresh thinking and initiatives are re-quired, particularly in rural areas. One such approach, which holds great promise, is the INSTEP strategy, which can be implemented in poor re-gions of the globe with local adaptation to suit existing conditions. Box 1 shows a schematic representation of INSTEP Global, TERI’s pioneering step in the direction of poverty alleviation and economic growth in the de-veloping world.


Box 1.

At this point it is relevant to refer to the basic concept of sustainable de-

velopment. According to the Brundtland Commission report of 1989, sus-tainable development can be defined as “that form of development which meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

The concept of sustainable development can also be understood in terms of Kenneth Boulding’s ‘Spaceship Economy’: “For the sake of pictur-esqueness, I am tempted to call the open economy the ‘cowboy economy’; the cowboy being symbolic of the illimitable plains and also associated with reckless, exploitative, romantic, and violent behaviour, which is char-acteristic of open societies. The closed economy of the future might simi-larly be called the ‘spaceman economy’; in which the earth has become a single spaceship, without unlimited reservoirs of anything, either for ex-traction or for pollution.”

Another important concept, which we can borrow from the physical sci-ences, is that of entropy. If the accumulation and increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere are leading to human-induced climate change, and if the impacts of climate change are indeed negative for the well-being of several living systems and human activities, then climate change can be associated with increasing entropy in the eco-

INSTEP Global (Integrating New and Sustainable Technologies for Elimination of Poverty) was conceptualised because of the limited success of poverty alleviation programmes and the lack of globally replicable models targeting major aspects of poverty. INSTEP recog-nises the relationship between poverty, environment and economic growth and aims to use a three-pronged technological approach com-prising: Biotechnology, for food/nutritional security and ecological sustainability; information technology for market access, education, health care, participative and transparent governance; and rural en-ergy technology for sustainable fuel systems, better lighting, benefits to women and environmental advantages. INSTEP assesses new and sustainable technologies for poverty alleviation; areas for technology adaptation and technology gaps; and operates through policy frame-works, financial and market mechanisms promoting these technolo-gies, model projects and their replication at the grassroots level, con-ferences and publications. INSTEP’s stakeholders are national governments, scientists and civil society (NGOs, etc.)


nomic process. Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen put forward this simple but powerful argument in many of his writings, and went further in highlight-ing the logic of greater use of renewable resources, which would not result in increasing emissions and concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere. One of his statements articulated as far back as 1971 said, “Automobiles driven by batteries charged by the sun’s energy are cheaper both in terms of scarce low entropy and healthy conditions — a reason why I believe they must, sooner or later, come about.” In some sense this statement was prophetic, and the growing interest in renewable energy technologies bears testimony to his logic and foresight.

Just as, in physics, the increase of entropy is an irreversible process, it is also possible that some of the effects of rising greenhouse gas concentra-tions could become irreversible if climate change is not limited in both rate and magnitude before the associated threshold levels, the “points of no re-turn”, are reached. This is particularly challenging because the positions of these threshold lines are blurred. As it is, even after the greenhouse gas concentration and global surface temperature are stabilised, the sea level will continue to rise long after emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced. Figure 5 illustrates this inertia in the climate system.

Fig. 5. Indications of time taken by CO2 concentration, temperature and sea level to reach equilibrium after reduction of CO2 emissions. (Source: IPCC TAR Syn-thesis Report)

Human-induced climate change is as much the result of unsustainable forms of production and consumption, and at the same time the impacts of climate change in particular impact on opportunities and conditions per-mitting the pursuit of sustainable development. Hence, along with an un-


derstanding of the geophysical aspects of climate change, we need to com-prehend their nexus with sustainability and the equity dimensions of de-velopment.

The inertia of the climate system is such that the impacts of climate change can be spread over decades and centuries if not millennia. This fact combined with the possibility of irreversibility in the interacting climate, ecological and socioeconomic systems are the main reasons why anticipa-tory adaptation and mitigation are beneficial. It is, of course, true that these adaptation and mitigation measures could be costly to the global economy, particularly in poor countries with low-income levels and weak infrastruc-ture. However, the faster they are implemented and the more ambitious their magnitude, the greater will be their benefits to the environment and the higher their immediate costs. Globally, a consideration of both mitiga-tion and adaptation measures, therefore, becomes essential. Figure 6 shows the reduction in GDP in 2050 due to mitigation activities. These do not in-dicate a very heavy burden in terms of relative costs.

Fig. 6. Global average GDP reduction for different levels of CO2 stabilisation in 2050 (Source: IPCC TAR Synthesis Report)

Significantly, by capturing synergies, greenhouse gas mitigation actions may yield ancillary benefits for other environmental problems. For exam-ple, the technological improvements of energy efficiency and use of re-newable energy sources would be beneficial for reducing local pollution levels as well as for reducing carbon emissions. In the land-use sector, conservation of biological carbon pools not only prevents carbon from be-ing emitted into the atmosphere, but it can also have a favourable effect soil productivity, the protection of biodiversity and the reduction of local


pollution problems from biomass burning. Conversely, addressing envi-ronmental and equity problems other than climate change can also have ancillary benefits through reduction of GHG emissions.

A very useful formula that projects the CO2 emissions as a function of various multiplicative factors is the Kaya Identity, which can be stated as follows:

CO2 Emissions = Population × (GDP/Population) × (Energy/GDP) × (CO2 /Energy)

The terms (Energy/GDP) and (CO2 /Energy) are called energy intensity and carbon intensity, respectively. They are important indicators of the state of the economic system and its sustainability in the context of climate change. Figure 7 shows the acceleration of energy system change for dif-ferent mitigation scenarios.

Technological options for reducing net CO2 emissions to the atmosphere include:

• Reducing energy consumption, by increasing the efficiency of energy conversion and/or utilisation.

• Switching to less carbon-intensive fuels, for example natural gas instead of coal.

• Increasing the use of renewable energy sources or nuclear energy, each of which emits little or no net CO2.

• Sequestering CO2 by enhancing biological absorption capacity in forests and soils.

• Capturing and storing CO2, chemically or physically.

Ironically, the impacts of climate change are most severe for those coun-tries that have contributed the least to the causes of the problem. For ex-ample, the developing countries have low per capita energy consumption and low contribution to global emissions and pollution, but have high local pollution levels and vulnerability to climate change. In contrast, the OECD countries have the highest per capita energy consumption and the highest contribution to global pollution, but they have less local pollution. The de-veloped countries also have greater technical and economic resources for change than the poorer economies, particularly as the latter need to focus on development. Hence there is a need for joint technology development and deployment between north and south and the development of mecha-nisms to facilitate this. The transfer of technology between countries would widen the choice of options for energy mixes and associated tech-nologies, and the economies of scale and learning will lower the cost of their adoption.


Fig. 7. (a) The required rate of decrease in energy intensity (energy per unit GDP) in order to meet given CO2 concentration stabilisation targets is within the range of historically achieved rates for stabilisation above 550 ppm, and possibly even at 450 ppm, but (b) the required rate of improvement in carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit energy) to stabilise at levels below about 600 ppm is higher than the historically achieved rates. As a consequence, the cost of mitigation rises as the stabilisation level decreases, and does so more steeply below a target of about 600 ppm than above. (Source: IPCC TAR Synthesis Report)

Specific mitigation options can be well understood in terms of the miti-gation potentials/barriers as shown in Figure 8. The IPCC TAR identified five categories of increasing mitigation potentials: market, economic, so-cioeconomic, technological and physical. At any given time, the market potential represents the actual use of a technology or practice. Overcoming the barriers of market and institutional imperfections would help the adop-tion of more cost-effective mitigation options thus realising the full eco-nomic potential of a set of options. The next step is changing consumer


behaviour and preferences leading to more climate-conscious and climate-responsible lifestyles. This expands the horizon to the socioeconomic po-tential. Technological improvement and cost reduction provide access to the technological potential; and finally, the physical potential represents the theoretical upper bound, which may become achievable through inno-vation.

Physical PotentialTheoretical upper bound, may shift over time

Technological PotentialImplementing technology that has already been demonstrated

Socioeconomic PotentialChange in behaviour, lifestyles, social structure and institutions

Economic PotentialCreation of markets, reduction of failures, financial and technology transfers

Market PotentialActual use of environmentally sound technologies and practices

Fig. 8. Concepts of mitigation potentials.

The boundaries between these potentials are not clearly defined or fixed, but are continuously varying as a consequence of changing policy, relative costs, human behaviour and technological innovation. The realisation of these potentials can only come about through effective policy-making and implementation. The economic and socioeconomic potentials inherent in a set of measures require the assistance of international cooperation initia-tives like the Kyoto Protocol, mechanisms of Joint Implementation, Emis-sions Trading and the Clean Development Mechanism.

Technologies designed for improvement in energy efficiency and in the utilisation of alternative/cleaner fuels are possibly the most important means for reducing emissions and mitigating climate change. Development of technology requires substantial investments and proactive R&D poli-cies. However, recent trends in funding of energy R&D do not appear sat-isfactory in this regard. Figure 9 shows the government expenditure on en-ergy research and development in IEA countries, which indicates the inadequacy of government spending on technological improvement and


development of renewable energy sources. This could prove to be a serious deterrent for climate mitigation efforts.

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Fig. 9. Government spending on Research and Development of Energy Sources

The global challenge today is to utilise the mitigation potentials to their fullest, to overcome the technical, economic, political, cultural, social, be-havioural and institutional barriers that prevent the successful implementa-tion of the mitigation options. There is an unprecedented need for global vision and commitment towards adaptation and mitigation options and to address the equity implications of climate change effectively. Technology is the key, but the social and economic context is of critical relevance in bringing about change in the required direction. Scientists, technologists and economists, therefore, share a common agenda that requires a much higher level of collaborative activity in the future.

2 Current Understanding of Environmental and Water Resource Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean (A subdomain of the greater Euro-Mediterranean Middle-Eastern Seas region)

Emin Özsoy

Institute of Marine Sciences, Middle East Technical University PK 28, Erdemli, Mersin 33730, Turkey e-mail: [email protected]

2.1 Preamble

While this presentation in its title aims to review the environmental and water resource impacts in the eastern Mediterranean, in the subtitle empha-sis is given to the fact that regional issues are inseparably linked with the environment/climate of a greater area.

The mid-latitude water bodies extending from Gibraltar eastwards to the Aral Sea can be identified as a true “medi-terra”nean complex of seas locked between continents increasingly isolated from the world ocean, which together form an interconnected climatic unit. The climates of the “downstream” water bodies, i.e., the Eastern Mediterranean, and Black and Caspian seas, are linked with the climates of the adjoining continents of Europe, Africa and Asia, which in turn are affected by the climates of the adjoining Atlantic and Indian oceans. Ocean-atmosphere-land interactions and consequent feedbacks between regional and global climate systems could be disproportionately large in this region of contrasts between ma-rine and continental climates, and complex land/sea bottom topography (Özsoy 1999). High gradients in physical characteristics, as well as in so-

E.J. Moniz (ed.), Climate Change and Energy Pathways for the Mediterranean, 15–31.© 2008 Springer.

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