building a low-carbon economy – tackling climate change: the business opportunities professor...
TRANSCRIPT
Building a Low-Carbon Economy –Tackling Climate Change: the
Business Opportunities
Professor Julia KingClimate Change Committee Member
Vice-Chancellor, Aston University, Birmingham
Be Birmingham Summit 26th June 2009
www.theccc.org.uk
In Dec 08 the CCC set out challenging targets for Government…
These challenging targets will drive major new business opportunities across a range of sectors
Long term target: 80% reduction in Kyoto GHG on 1990 levels by 2050Long term target: 80% reduction in Kyoto GHG on 1990 levels by 2050
Recommendation to reduce emissions by at least 34% by 2020... Recommendation to reduce emissions by at least 34% by 2020...
And by 42% by 2020 in event of global dealAnd by 42% by 2020 in event of global deal
Interim target now accepted by Government and written into the legislation. Also commitment to ask the CCC to review its recommendations following a global deal
Interim target now accepted by Government and written into the legislation. Also commitment to ask the CCC to review its recommendations following a global deal
2050 - the scale of the UK challenge
2006 emissions
International aviation & shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry (heat & industrial processes)
Residential & commercial heat
Domestic transport
Electricity generation
* bunker fuels basis
2050 objective
159 Mt CO2e
695 Mt CO2e
77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)
Meeting required reductions
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Behaviour change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Behaviour change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Sustainable biofuels
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Sustainable biofuels
Application of power to transport
and heat
Power generation to 2050
POWER SECTOR: required reductions
Emissions intensity to 2050
HOMES: emissions reduction from energy use in homes, MtCO2
HOMES: residential sector MACC - technical potential in 2020
TRANSPORT: a key role for ultra low carbon vehicles in achieving CO2 targets
Key message: decarbonisation of power sector to open the way for using electricity (directly or via renewable hydrogen) in the transport sector in the long term
MARKAL scenarios to 2050: reduction in carbon intensity of the transport sector first with conventional technology then with electric, plug-in hybrids, second generation biofuels and hydrogen.
MARKAL scenarios to 2050: reduction in carbon intensity of the transport sector first with conventional technology then with electric, plug-in hybrids, second generation biofuels and hydrogen.
Extended ambition scenario for 2020: after slow start, around 20% of new car sales are either EVs or PHEVs by 2020, the rest are various types of hybrids. Increased penetration of biofuels. EU target of 95g CO2/Km is met in the UK.
Extended ambition scenario for 2020: after slow start, around 20% of new car sales are either EVs or PHEVs by 2020, the rest are various types of hybrids. Increased penetration of biofuels. EU target of 95g CO2/Km is met in the UK.
Current ambition scenario for 2020: some increase in vehicle fuel efficiency, primarily through increased hybrid car uptake but no additional biofuels and no penetration of either EVs or PHEVs by 2020. EU target is not met.
Current ambition scenario for 2020: some increase in vehicle fuel efficiency, primarily through increased hybrid car uptake but no additional biofuels and no penetration of either EVs or PHEVs by 2020. EU target is not met.
Industry view of the high-level technology & R&D roadmap for decarbonising transport
Source: New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team (NAIGT), 2009
EVs: new technologies – new opportunities
Arup/CENEX report
for BERR and DfT 2008
New car sales by year(extreme range scenario)
Number of cars in the UK car parc(extreme range scenario)
Electric vehicles are feasible now
► The infrastructure is almost in place
► Some vehicles are already available► highly efficient► ranges of 60 to 200+ miles► some are glamorous!
► Additional power system load is easily manageable
► 17% additional generation capacity► exploit night time trough and day
time dips with smart metering
New business opportunities: POWER
New initiatives in power generation
Renewable Obligation Certificates: 1.5 -15% renewables by 2020
bioenergy
combined heat and power
major expansion of wind energy: 3 – 28GW by 2020
CCS, new nuclear build
New business opportunities: HOMES
DECC heat and energy saving strategy (consultation Feb 09)
by 2020 up to 7 million homes offered ‘whole house’ packages
if this cost £6k per house: £42bn business
new types of business, new business models
employment and skills
High efficiency appliances, solar, air and ground source heat
pumps…
New business opportunities: CARS
Ultra low carbon vehicle demonstratorannounced 23rd June: over 300 ultra low carbon vehicles in the UK
the largest group in Birmingham/Coventry
EVs and PHEVs potentially 50% of new car sales in the UK by
2023: 1.4 million vehicles
Skills for maintenance and repair
New infrastructure
High efficiency electric motors, AC…
The low carbon economy will offer a
lot of opportunities: how can we make
sure we are ready for them?
Thank you
www.theccc.org.uk