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Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios Presentation| 3 Décembre 2019

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Page 1: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios

Presentation| 3 Décembre 2019

Page 2: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

2

AGENDA

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET HISTORICAL GROWTH

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET EVOLUTION SCENARIOS VS IHS PLAN

POWERTRAIN MIX, CONNECTED CARS,& ADAS VOLUME & MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO

WLTP ANALYSIS

Page 3: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

3Advancy Insights

Recession case: 2008 Global Financial Crisis

RECESSION CASE

Between 2000 and 2007, passenger cars production increased by +3.1% p.a. and wasstrongly impacted by the 2008 global crisis, with -c.8%p.a. decrease between ’07-’09

PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION | IN M UNIT, 2000-2018

Scope: Passenger Cars; LCV out of scopeSources: IHS, Advancy analysis and research

2003

47.7

15%

7%

28%

20022000 2001 20102004 2005 2006 2007

44.9

2008 2015

18%

48.3

21%

14%

30%

20142009 2011 2012

MEA49.8

2013 2016

Europe

2017

4%9%

30%

16%

51.8

24%

2018

Japan/Korea

38%

SouthAmerica

24%South Asia

China

NorthAmerica

8%

59.9

46.1

54.357.3

46.7

62.366.4

69.372.0 73.6

77.9 79.9 79.4

55.3

CAGR: +3.1% CAGR: -8.2%

CAGR: +5.7%

Page 4: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

4Advancy Insights

100

9471

87 9096 97 100 102 103 101 100100

163173

202213

268 268

100

84

105 109116

121126 129

136 139 139

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

100

105

97

216

182

127

247

2008 Global Financial crisis: total market

In 2008 and 2009, mature markets were severely impacted by the global financialcrisis, while emerging markets production continued to grow at slower pace

Notes: (1) Mature markets: North America, Europe, Japan / Korea (2) Emergings: China, South Asia, South America, Middle East/ AfricaSources: IHS, Advancy analysis and research

PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION | WORLDWIDE, 2007-2018, INDEX 100 = 2007

RECESSION CASE

The global passenger cars production reached its trough in 2009 (-16pts vs. peak)

Developed markets (-29pts vs. 2007)

₋ Impacted by strong decrease in the USA (-41pts), Japan / Korea (-26pts) and Europe (-23pts)

₋ Recovered pre-crisis level in 5 years

Emerging markets:

₋ While the passenger car production grew by +15%p.a. between 2000-2007, the global financial crisis slowed down growth, at +5% in 2008, but with fast acceleration in 2009 (+21%), mainly driven by China

Mature(1) TotalEmerging(2)

Page 5: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

5Advancy Insights

Increasing motorization rate: Growth by increasing needs for mobility

Mature motorization rate:Growth driven by old cars

renewal linked to environmental regulation

New vehicle sales: passenger car production by region (excluding Light Commercial Vehicle)

MARKET DRIVERS AND DYNAMICS

Since 2009, most of the production growth has been driven by China (50%)

Note: 1) Per person ; 2) 2015 Data Source: OICA, National Bureau of Statistics, Advancy analysis

PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION BY REGION| 2009-2018, MILLIONS OF VEHICLES

Low motorization rate: 118 veh. per 1000 inhabitants vs. 182 in average worldwide and 580 in EU

Improving disposable income, savings and low private debt- Avg disposable income: +8% p.a.- Total Savings deposit: +10% p.a.

2009

9

15

North America

7

6

18

Europe

448

North America

15

China

6

RoW

19

13

24

24

2018

Europe

China

RoW

79

c.50% of total growth

+2.9% +7.5% +11.8% +3.1% +5.7%CAGR

‘09-’18

CHINESE ACCOUNTS FOR 50 % OF WOLRDWIDE PRODUCTION GROWTH

Total savings deposit

Avg disposable income1

36k

25k30k

45k+8%p.a

+9%p.a

2012 2017581 670 118 182Motorization %veh./ 1000 inhab.2

NEW VEHICLE SALES

Page 6: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

6Advancy Insights

RECESSION CASE

Recession case: Market evolution since 2008 Global Financial crisis

Since 2008, the context has changed for the automotive industry on 5 major aspects

VEHICLES MIX

Acceleration of market price polarization (% Premium + Low cost vs. Mid-range) Share of SUV vs. other body types Share of Electrical vehicle Share of Diesel

CONTENT / VEH. EVOLUTION

(AV & PRICE PRESSURE)

Higher pressure on prices for new modules / techno Semi-conductors content per car increase & risk of shortage / squeeze if scrapping programs aggressively

push for EV

INDUSTRY IMAGE Loss of credibility of Auto industry given past scandals (e.g. Diesel Gate) Negative perception given environmental impacts

MACRO-ECO / GEOPO. / SOCIETAL

CONTEXT

Protectionism on the rise (USA, UK, Brazil…) US/ China trade war New environmental norms (WLTP) Higher customers / companies indebtedness Urbanization increase Rise of shared mobility and multi modality

WHAT CHANGES ?

OEMVOLUME

Weight of Chinese market on total market/ stronger impact in absolute volume given larger market size / higher share of Chinese OEM sales

OEM platforming and partnership (e.g. Ford and VW, BMW & Daimler) % Fleet in new car sales OEM internalization on new value space

NEW ENTRANTS New market entrants:

Entry of cash rich players (e.g. semi-conductors, Internet players) with ambition in Auto New OES entrants from emerging countries (e.g. China and India)

Page 7: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

7

AGENDA

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET HISTORICAL GROWTH

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET EVOLUTION SCENARIOS VS IHS PLAN

POWERTRAIN MIX, CONNECTED CARS,& ADAS VOLUME & MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO

WLTP ANALYSIS

Page 8: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

8Advancy Insights

CYCLE EFFECT CRISIS SEVERE CRISIS

Index 100=2017 Index 100=2017 Index 100=2017Index 100=2017

IHS BEST CASE BASE CASE WORST CASE #1 WORST CASE #2

SCENARIO

Continued growth from 2018 to 2025 (+2.3% p.a.)

IHS forecast Jan 2019

Volume drop in 2019-20 affecting:- Mature: North America and Europe- Emergings: China only

2019 volume updated based on current OEM market view

Stronger volume drop in 2019-20 affecting:- Mature: North America and Europe- Emergings: China, South Asia, South America and MEA

2019 volume based on 2019 H1 production

Less stronger crisis than 2008 global financial crisis in mature markets

But also impacting emerging markets

Volume catch-up effect afterwards, similar to 2008 crisis

Same as Worst case 1 With slower recovery of

the renewal Chinese market

PEAK TO TROUGH

(vs. 2018 level)- -3 pts - 7 pts -14 pts -14 pts

TIME TO RECOVERY

(vs. 2018 level)- 4 years 5 years 6 years 6 years

CAGR 2018-2025

+2.3%p.a. +1.5%p.a. +0.9%p.a. +1.5%p.a. +1.2%p.a.

RECESSION CASE

Source: Advancy analysis and research

Recession case: Scenarios (Passenger Cars)

Index 100=2018 Index 100=2018 Index 100=2018 Index 100=2018 Index 100=2018

We have modeled 4 crisis scenarios: two cycle effect crisis, with volume drop in 2019and 2020, and x2 severe crisis, with different recovery pace in China

Page 9: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

9Advancy Insights

Passenger car: worldwide production

MARKET DRIVERS AND DYNAMICS

Between 2018 and 2025, according to IHS passenger car production is expected togrow at +c.2%p.a., mainly driven by China and South-Asia

Sources: IHS, Advancy analysis

2011 2018 2025F

North America 11 13 13

+3% 0%

2011 2018

South America

2025F

3 43-3% +4%

2011 2018 2025F

MEA 32 2+2% +4%

24

2011 2018 2025F

30China 13

+9% +3%

Japan/Korea

2011 2018 2025F

11 12 12

+1% 0%

2025F2011

21Europe

2018

18 19

+1% +1%

2025F

5

20182011

South Asia 7 11

+5% +7%

WORLDWIDE PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION| MILLIONS OF VEHICLE, 2011-2025F

20182011 2025F

9362

79

+4%+2%TOTAL

NEW VEHICLE SALES

BASE CASE ADVANCY: +0.9%P.A. PASSENGER CAR PRODUCTION GROWTH BETWEEN 2018 AND 2025

IHS

Page 10: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

10Advancy Insights

Volume forecast hypothesis by scenario x region

VOLUME EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO

Cumulated vision 2017-2020: shift from -6M to -18M vehicles vs. IHS depending onthe scenario

Notes: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales level; 2) Positive impact of emerging countries on Total MarketSource: expert interviews, Advancy analysis

YEARLY VOLUME FORECAST | M VEHICLES, 2017-2020SELL-IN x PC

PASSENGER CAR

IHS

23.9 22.6

19.519.3

13.2

13.1

12.0

2017

25.6

12.5

11.5

13.2

18.6

12.5

21.2

Base

22.4

11.2

Best

12.5

11.2

13.2

16.3

9.1

11.0

12.6

Worst 1

21.2

16.3

9.1

11.0

12.6

Worst 2

11.6

Europe

NAFTA

Japan

RoW

82.3

China

77.8

70.2 70.2

18.4

79.9 78.2

2020 Delta vs. IHS

-4.1 M -4.5 M -12.0 M -12.0 M

Cum. Delta vs. IHS (17/20)

-6.2 M -6.8 M -18.4 M -18.4 M

CAGR 18-20 +1.8% -0.8% -1.0% -6.0% -6.0%

China taking the “bump” at a -2.5% CAGR in BASE scenarios and -2% in BEST (CAAM -2% growth rate projection for 2019 is here extended until 2020); more severe crisis applied in Worst#1/#2 scenarios

Europe also facing a differentiated “bump” in 18-20 on Base (-1.5% p.a.) and Worst#1/#2 (-7.4% p.a.)

NAFTA and emerging countriesvolumes forecasted with IHS figures unchanged for the 2018-2020 period except for Worst#1/#2 following 2008 crisis pattern and assuming a contagion effect to ROW

IHS BEST BASE WORST #1 WORST #2

HYPOTHESES

2017-2020

Page 11: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

11Advancy Insights

Volume forecast hypothesis by scenario x region

Cumulated vision 2017-2025: decrease from -32M to -70M vehicles vs. IHS dependingon the scenario

Notes: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales level; 2) Positive impact of emerging countries on Total MarketSource: expert interviews, Advancy analysis

YEARLY VOLUME FORECAST| M VEHICLES, 2017-2025SELL-IN x PC

PASSENGER CAR

Europe 19.219.3

29.7

13.1

2017

20.6

12.0

11.6

13.3

Worst 2

17.6

11.7

17.6

18.4

IHS

26.2

13.3

11.5

24.1

13.3

11.5

17.6

13.1

Base

China 26.2

84.9

19.2

11.1

23.4

18.4

Worst 1

13.1

Best

18.4

NAFTA

Japan

RoW

19.7

11.1

79.9

92.888.2 87.9

23.9

85.1

2025 Delta vs. IHS

-4.6 M -8.0 M -4.9 M -7.7 M

Cum. Delta vs. IHS (17/25)

-31.8 M -43.1 M -62.2 M -70.2 M

CAGR 20-25 +2.5% +2.5% +1.8% +4.6% +3.9%

IHS BEST BASE WORST #1 WORST #2

2017-2025

The reaction of China in the aftermath of the crisis will be the key driver for the PC market

In the scenarios where China becomes a mature Auto market (Base case & Worst case #2), 2025 Chinese volumes will be reduced by up to -20% vs. IHS

In Worst case scenarios, the cumulated impact represents up to 75% of worldwide production, creating structural over-capacity at OEM & OES level

HYPOTHESES

VOLUME EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO

Page 12: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

12Advancy Insights

97102

108109

126

98

104

117

60

70

110

80

120

100

2023F2022F

90

2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2024F 2025F

100 102

96

Δ vs. lowest

-3pt

-

Time for recovery1

1 year

-

Recession case: IHS volume

IHS: no global decrease forecasted in 2019-2020, except Japan / Korea and NAFTA,with long term growth especially in China (slowdown assumed to be starting in 2024)

Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: IHS January 2019, expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis

IHS assumptions based on compiled OEM data and IHS analysis

Mature markets (+0.5%p.a. between 2018-2025):- USA: expected to decrease in 2019 and 2020 (-0.7 and -2.8%%)- Europe: +1.1%p.a. growth over the period- Japan/ Korea: -0.2% decrease over the period

Emerging markets (+4.2%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: slowdown assumed to start in 2024- South America and South Asia: continued growth forecasted

COMMENTS

China

Europe

NAFTA

Total

Japan/ Korea

- -

IHS

-4pts >7 years

- -

PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018

RECESSION CASE

Page 13: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

13Advancy Insights

100 101

96

103

91

102104

97

111

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2024F2021F2018 2022F2020F2019F 2023F 2025F

Δ vs. lowest

-4pts

-4pts

Time for recovery1)

6 years

5 years

Recession case: best case

Best case: light cycle effect in 2019 and 2020, with global production recovery in 4years

Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis

NAFTA

Europe

China

Japan/ Korea

Total

-9pts 5 years

- -

-3pts 4 years

PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018

RECESSION CASE

Mature markets (+0.4%p.a. between 2018-2025):- NAFTA: cycle effect in 2019 and 2020 (-1.8%), following US sales peak in 2016 (17.6M unit sales) and sales plateau since- Europe: similar to NAFTA, with stronger decline in 2019/ 2020 (-3% /-1%), driven by new WLTP and Brexit effect- Japan/ Korea: sales forward driven production growth in 2019, driven by expected 2019 consumption tax increase

Emerging markets (+2.8%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: slowdown of -6% in 2019 and -3% in 2020, driven by US/ Chinese trade war and lower Chinese demand- Other: stabilization of production in Iran, slowdown of South America production in 2019 and 2020 and continued growth in South Asia

COMMENTS

BEST CASE

Page 14: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

14Advancy Insights

100

95101

96

86

107

101 104

93

107

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2019F 2023F2018 2020F 2021F 2022F 2025F2024F

94

Δ vs. lowest

-5pts

-6pts

Time for recovery1)

6 years

>7 years

Recession case: base case (scenario Advancy)

Base case – Scenario Advancy: stronger cycle effect impact in 2019 and 2020, withglobal production recovery in 5 years

Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis

NAFTA

Total

Europe

China

Japan/ Korea

-15pts 6 years

- -

-7pts 5 years

PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018

RECESSION CASE

Mature markets (+0%p.a. between 2018-2025):- NAFTA: stronger decline in 2019 and 2020 vs. best case (-2.5%), similar to H1 2019- Europe: stronger decline in 2019 (-3% p.a.)- Japan/ Korea: more limited growth than in base case (+1% in 2019)

Emerging markets (+2%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: stronger slowdown of China production in 2019 than best case(-10%p.a., similar to H1 2019), but with faster recovery- Other: contagion of China production decrease in South Asia, with -1.5% decrease in 2019-2020 and fast recovery

COMMENTS

BASE CASE

Page 15: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

15Advancy Insights

100

89

98

80

106

111

86

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2021F2018 2019F 2020F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

117

87

Δ vs. lowest

-20pts

-11pts

Time for recovery1)

5 years

>7 years

Recession case: worst case #1

Worst case #1: lighter effect than 2008 crisis in mature markets, but also impactingemerging markets, including China, with global production recovery in 6 years

Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis

NAFTA

Japan/ Korea

China

Europe

Total

-20pts 6 years

-13pts 4 years

-14pts 6 years

PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018

RECESSION CASE

Mature markets (+1.0%p.a. between 2018-2025):- NAFTA: lower effect than 2008 crisis, with higher protectionism, and similar recovery pace (5 years)- Europe: lower effect than in 2008 (-23pts), given recent recovery of 2007 level (2017), but also including Brexit effect (-0.5M unit), and slower recovery pace (+1.8%p.a. between 2020-2025)- Japan/ Korea: lower peak to trough than in 2008, as 2008 pre-crisis level not recovered

Emerging markets (+2.1%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: similar crisis effect than for NAFTA (-20pts), with recovery in 6 years, driven by government push (+c.6%p.a. between 2020-2025 )- Other: crisis contagion in the other markets: South Asia (-3pts at peak), South America (-2pts), and MEA (-13pts. in 2019 then positive growth)

COMMENTS

WORST CASE #1

Page 16: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

16Advancy Insights

100

117

89

98

80

97

111

86

108

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2022F2019F2018 2021F2020F 2023F 2024F 2025F

87

100

Δ vs. lowest

-20pts

-11pts

Time for recovery1)

5 years

>7 years

Recession case: worst case #2

Worst case #2: similar peak to trough than in Worst case #1, but with slowerrecovery of China production (>7 years vs. 6 years)

Note: 1) Time to retrieve initial sales levelSources: expert interviews, Advancy research and analysis

China

NAFTA

Europe

Japan/ Korea

Total

-20pts >7 years

-13pts 4 years

-14pts 6 years

PASSENGER CAR SALES EVOLUTION | WORLDWIDE, 2018-2025F, INDEX 100 = 2018

RECESSION CASE

Mature markets (+1.0%p.a. between 2018-2025):- Same assumptions than Worst Case #1

Emerging markets (+1.4%p.a. between 2018-2025):- China: similar peak to trough than in worst case #1 (-20pts), but with slower recovery between 2020-2025 (China becoming a renewal market) - Other: same scenario than Worst Case #1

COMMENTS

WORST CASE #2

Page 17: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

17

AGENDA

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET HISTORICAL GROWTH

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET EVOLUTION SCENARIOS VS IHS PLAN

POWERTRAIN MIX, CONNECTED CARS,& ADAS VOLUME & MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO

WLTP ANALYSIS

Page 18: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

18Advancy Insights

Volume forecast hypothesis by powertrain mix

OES ADDRESSABLE MARKET - ELECTRIFICATION

We see slightly less electrified cars than IHS in all scenarios. The key differencesstem from the portion of PHEV & BEV in the mix

Notes: 1) Excluding bateriesSource: expert interviews, Advancy analysis

PASSENGER CAR

VOLUME FORECAST BY POWERTRAIN MIX | VOLUME IN M VEHICLES, POWERTRAIN MIX IN % COMMENTS

25

76

88

2017 Best

23

49

9

4747

30

55

Worst 1

8

46

85

5

93 M

45

5

Base

80 M

48

43

IHS

3

28

43

25

3

88 85

6

Worst 2

2025

IHS BEST BASE WORST #1 WORST #2

# electrified vehicles (M units)

Addressable market (€Bn)1)

ICE Hybrid-Mild PHEVHybrid Full EV1

ELECTRIFICATION

In Best and Base scenarios, PHEV and BEV are expected to remain above c.10M Veh in 2025, but only reach c.6MVeh in worst case scenarios

Due to CO2 emissions constraints, we assume that the portion of Mild Hybrid will rise to balance OEM targets, especially in the Worst case scenarios where the economic downturn is also likely to make consumers more sensitive about fuel consumption, thus boosting mild powertrain electrification

4,1 43,7 41,0 38,9 40,1 38,4

5,7 39,6 37,1 30,1 26,5 25,3

Page 19: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

19

AGENDA

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET HISTORICAL GROWTH

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET EVOLUTION SCENARIOS VS IHS PLAN

POWERTRAIN MIX, CONNECTED CARS,& ADAS VOLUME & MARKET SHARE EVOLUTION PER SCENARIO

WLTP ANALYSIS

Page 20: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

20Advancy Insights

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

201812017201620152012 2013 2014

2020/21 avg. target: 95g/km

Passenger cars average CO2 emissions for selected brands

POWERTRAIN MIX FORECASTS - EUROPEAN MARKET

In Europe, brands facing challenging EU CO2 emission targets for 2021 and 2030requiring important electrification of their sales mix

Note: 1) Unofficial values, PA consulting estimatesSource : ICCT, PA consulting, Advancy analysis

EU NEW PASSENGER CARS CO2 EMISSIONS (NEDC) BY BRAND| 2012-2018, G/KM

PENALTY DRIVERS

OEM LEVERS

• CO2 target calculated based on average veh. weight of EU sales

• Penalty calculated for each gram of CO2 above target on the basis of 95€ /gm for each veh. sold

• Target lowered every year to reach less than 67g (NEDC) in 2030

• Battery EV emitting 0gm/km but high battery price preventing mass B2C adoption

• PHEV/FHEV generating a “super green bonus” (e.g. vehicles with less than 50g are overweight in performance calculation in in the limit of 7.5g)

• Entry level/less equipped/small displacement ICE having lower CO2 emissions

• Restricting high emission versions

• Diesel engines keeping an advantage in CO2 vs. petrol

2025/2030 avg. target: 81g/km

2030+ avg. target: 67g/km

Page 21: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

21Advancy Insights

Zoom on BEV, FCEV and PHEV per car segment

BEV & PHEV TAKE-OFF

222 models will be on the market by 2021, and volumes per model will be very low. B& C segments are among highest volume

Source: IHS, Advancy analysis

SPLIT OF AVAILABLE MODELS IN 2021 PER SEGMENT & PER OEM | 2017-2021, WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE

NUMBER OF BEV+PHEV MODELS ON THE MARKET IN 2021| CUMUL #, 2017-2021, WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE

32

60

76

18

27

30

50

25

33

46

56

317

130 1811

14

162

90

32

8

4

2017

10

6

D

A

2021

222

B

F

70

C

E

2018

9

10

0 3

113

2019

83

2020

AVG 2021 VOL. PER MODEL (KVEH)

0,5

6.9

7.0

10.6

16.6

15.4

44

C

F

Others

D

E

5

13

6

24

26

13

6

13

9

R-N-M

14

Daimler

27

1

4

1

5

TataGeely

6

15

8

1

6

PSA

8

1

1

3

2

1

BMW

8

8

7

4

Ford

8

22

10

2

FCA

5

B

A

4

4

25

6

25

Volkswagen

1

11

58

9

TOTAL = 222 MODELS

Page 22: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

22Advancy Insights

Sales vs. production of PHEV & BEV in Western & Eastern Europe

BEV & PHEV TAKE-OFF

OEMs are betting on high share of EV sales to meet targets in 2020 & 2021 but EVmarket in EU has still not taken off and will require massive public investment

1. Assuming cumulative investments of c. €2-3B in charging infrastructure, and a direct consumer subsidy of €1-3K per PHEV / BEV soldSource: ACEA, IHS, T&E, Advancy analysis

ACTUAL SALES & PRODUCTION FORECAST OF PHEV + BEV | 2017-2021, WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE, MVEH, % MS, ‘000S CHARGING POINTS

0,4

0,20,2

0,3

0,1

0,7

1,1

20182017

+33%

0,3

1,0

0,40,7

0,2

2,0

+74%

2021

0,7

20202019

1,4

1.8% 2.5% 3.9% 7.3% 10.7%PHEV + BEV market share market(in % of total LV)

IN THE CASE OF SALES BELOW THESE AMBITIOUS PRODUCTION LEVELS (X5 IN 3 YEARS), OEMS WILL FIGHT HARD ON PHEV & BEV SALES TO REACH THEIR 2021 WLTP TARGETS

c.0.7 c.1.0Cumulated fleet of EV vehicles (MVeh)

c.1.8 c.3.2 c.5.2

Charging infrastructure (’000s of points)

c.100 c.100 c.145 c.260 c.420

ACTUAL IHS PRODUCTION FORECAST

’19-’21 cumulated subsidies required1:

€ 7-15 B

Page 23: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

23Advancy Insights

Zoom on BEV, FCEV and PHEV per car segment

BEV & PHEV TAKE-OFF

The fight might be particularly strong on the B & C, as customer demand focuses onthese segments

1. Focused on top models covering c.95% of European BEV Sales and 85% of PHEV sales in 2018Source: Carsalesbase, IHS, Advancy analysis

SALES OF PHEV + BEV1 | 2017-2018, WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE, KVEH PRODUCTION FORECAST OF PHEV + BEV | 2021 WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE, KVEH

4%

25% 24%

41%45%

15%13%

11% 8%

5% 6%

4%

0,2

2017

B

E

D

2018

A

F

0,3

C

35%

21%

0%

0,1 0,3

F

Others

1%

48%

19%

24%

1%

0%

PSA

9%

VAG

4%

53%

1%

0,50%

32%

1%

FCA

38%

4%

1%

40%

17%

26%17%

0,2

34%

D

E

BMW

42%

25%

0%0,2

R-N-M

0,3

1%

16%

0%

17%

31%

1%

Daimler

54%

0%0,3

21%

23%

9%

35%

A

B

C

7%

2,0

2021

14%

A

B

D

E

C

F

20%

0%

41%

18%

PRODUCTION PLANS OF GERMAN OEMS FOCUSES HEAVILY ON HIGH MARGIN E SEGMENT, WHILE MARKET DEMAND IS FOCUSED ON B&C SEGMENTS. THEY MIGHT AGGRESSIVELY ATTACK B&C SEGMENTS TO SECURE CO2 TARGETS

+5ppts

+12ppts

-10ppts

-4ppts

-6ppts

+3ppts

Page 24: Automotive Market & Powertrain mix Scenarios · 2 agenda automotive market historical growth automotive market evolution scenarios vs ihs plan powertrain mix, connected cars,& adas

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