australia and global outlook for energy storage … · source: bloomberg new energy finance...
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AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT
Australian Energy Storage
Conference & Exhibition
Hugh Bromley
3 June 2015
1
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AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
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2,500 CLIENTS IN OVER 50 COUNTRIES
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Public Sector & NGOs
Finance & Investment
Supply Chain &Technology
Utilities & Energy
3
Note: Q2 2015 numbers are provisional. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
ANNOUNCED ENERGY STORAGE PROJECTS WORLDWIDE (MW AND NUMBER OF PROJECTS)
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
Reserved for BNEF clients
4
Note: Does not include underground compressed air energy storage, pumped hydro, or flooded lead-acid batteries;
minimum threshold for projects is either 100kW or 100kWh. Note that Alevo’s 200MW project with Customized
Energy Solutions is not included because its exact location is not yet announced. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
US ANNOUNCED AND COMMISSIONED ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY, AS OF 30 APRIL 2014 (MW)
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
Reserved for BNEF clients
5
US CUMULATIVE INSTALLED ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY, BY STATE, 2013-20 (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
● The US will have installed 3GW
of energy storage by 2020, a
six-fold increase on 2013
● California has mandated that
the three investor-owned
utilities in the state procure
1.3GW of storage by 2020
● The California mandates are
starting to have a strong impact
on project deployment this year
● California, Texas and New York
will account for 72% of the total
capacity installed in the US in
2020
California will dominate the energy storage market in the US, accounting for nearly 60%
of the total amount installed by 2020
0.280.49
0.71
1.02
1.39
1.90
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.10
0.15
0.27
0.07
0.10
0.13
0.13
0.32 0.32
0.33
0.34
0.37
0.43
0.58
0.92
0.4 0.4
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.6
2.2
3.2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Others
New York
Texas
California
6
GLOBAL CUMULATIVE INSTALLED ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY, BY COUNTRY, 2013-20 (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
● 11.3GW of energy storage will
be deployed by 2020, a nine-
fold increase on 2013
● 77% of capacity will be
deployed in just four countries:
1. US
2. Korea
3. Germany
4. Japan
● Australia is only a minor player,
with a projected 104MW of
storage capacity installed by
2020
By 2020, roughly 11.3GW of energy storage will be installed globally, equivalent to less than
1% of the total installed capacity of intermittent renewables (wind and PV)
0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.62.2
3.20.3
0.60.8
1.2
2.0
0.3 0.30.3
0.4
0.5
0.7
1.1
1.9
0.3 0.30.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.6
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.20.8
1.21.5
2.0
2.6
3.6
4.8
7.1
11.3
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RoW
Canada
Italy
China
UK
Japan
Germany
Korea
US
7
GLOBAL CUMULATIVE INSTALLED ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY, BY COUNTRY, 2013-20 (GWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
● Germany will install almost as
much energy-orientated storage
as the US:
1. US (-)
2. Germany (1)
3. Japan (1)
4. Korea (2)
● In Germany, this is largely
because of a growth in end-
user applications
● In 2020, around half of
Australia’s 256MWh of energy
storage will be supporting the
transmission and distribution
networks
By 2020, the total installed amount of energy storage will be nearly 30GWh, over 20% of the
cumulative production of electric vehicle batteries
0.9 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.95.2
6.9
1.2 1.31.3
1.51.9
2.6
4.0
6.9
1.2 1.21.5
1.82.2
2.8
3.9
5.5
0.6
1.2
1.7
2.7
5.0
0.5
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.4
2.8
0.3
1.3
2.5
3.94.6
5.8
7.4
9.9
13.4
19.7
31.9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RoW
Canada
Italy
China
UK
Korea
Japan
Germany
US
8
Note: Q2 2015 numbers are provisional. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
TECHNOLOGY MIX OF ANNOUNCED ENERGY STORAGE PROJECTS (% BY MW)
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
Reserved for BNEF clients
9
Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT
LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE
2010
H1 2014
m=21.6% 0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
His
torica
l p
rice
(U
SD
/Wh)
Cumulative production (MWh)
Li-ion EV battery
pack
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
10
Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT
LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE
1988
1976
1998
2004
2014
2008
2010
H1 2014
m=21.6%
m=24.3%
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
His
torica
l p
rice
(U
SD
/W, U
SD
/Wh)
Cumulative production (MW, MWh)
Crystalline Si PV
module
Li-ion EV battery
pack
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
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EVOLUTION OF THE LITHIUM-ION INDUSTRY
Note: Automotive Energy Supply Corporation (AESC) is a joint venture between NEC Corp (50%) and Nissan Motor
Co Ltd (50%). Lithium Energy Japan (LEJ) a joint venture of GS Yuasa (51%), Mitsubishi Corporation (34%), and
Mitsubishi Motors (15%). Blue Energy is a joint venture between Honda Motor Co Ltd (49%) and GS Yuasa Corp
(51%). Deutsche Accumotive is owned by Daimler (90%) and Evonik (10%). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
MARKET SHARE OF LI-ION EV BATTERY
PACK PRODUCTION
END-USE APPLICATION OF LITHIUM-ION
BATTERIES
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
42%
22%
13%
6%
6%
5%
4%
1%
1%
0%
Panasonic
AESC
LG Chem
LEJ
BYD
Samsung SDI
Blue Energy
Deutsche Accumotive
Bollore
A123 Systems
2% 5% 9% 13% 15%
98% 95% 91% 87% 85%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumer electronics
EVs and stationary energy
12
Note: Q2 2015 numbers are provisional. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
APPLICATION MIX OF ANNOUNCED ENERGY STORAGE PROJECTS (% BY MW)
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
Reserved for BNEF clients
13
CUMULATIVE INSTALLED ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY, BY APPLICATION, 2013-20 (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
● Generation, transmission and
distribution-level applications
will dominate to 2018
● From 2018 onwards the end-
user segments start to grow in
size at a significant rate as
payback periods for end-user
systems start to make
economic sense
● Power-intensive systems
account for 40% of the total in
2020, and energy-intensive
systems 60%
Growing from virtually zero, end-user applications will account for 42% of the total
installed capacity by 2020, the larger than generation and T&D applications
Note: E is short for Energy and P is short for Power.
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.00.5 0.60.8 1.0
1.41.8
0.3 0.40.5
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.5
0.7
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.8
1.7
0.6
1.1
2.2
0.2
0.5
1.1
0.1
1.21.5
2.0
2.6
3.6
4.8
7.1
11.3
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Island microgrid
End-user - P
Residential enduser - E
Commercial enduser - E
Distribution - P
Distribution - E
Transmission - P
Transmission - E
Generation - P
Generation - E
14
CUMULATIVE INSTALLED ENERGY STORAGE CAPACITY, BY APPLICATION, 2013-20 (GWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
● Energy-intensive applications
account for around 86% of total
capacity in 2020
● Residential end-user
applications will become the
largest sector by 2018
● 52% of storage capacity will sit
behind-the-meter in 2020
In MWh-terms, the end-user applications take an even larger share at 52%
Note: E is short for Energy and P is short for Power.
1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.1 4.00.5 0.60.8 1.0
1.41.8
1.3 1.62.0
2.63.4
4.4
0.5
0.7
1.0
1.41.6
1.82.1
2.4
3.0
0.2
0.3
0.5
1.6
3.1
6.7
2.4
4.5
8.7
1.1
3.94.6
5.8
7.4
9.9
13.4
19.7
31.8
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Island microgrid
End-user - P
Residential enduser - E
Commercial enduser - E
Distribution - P
Distribution - E
Transmission - P
Transmission - E
Generation - P
Generation - E
15
DRIVERS AND BARRIERS IN AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
TRANSMISSION
● Network augmentation
deferral
● Regulatory complexities
DISTRIBUTION
● Network augmentation deferral
● Heavily scrutinised investments
● Increasing small-scale PV
penetration
RESIDENTIAL END-USER
● Highly affordable rooftop PV
● Highly competitive retail market
● Improving economics & consumer demand
RE INTEGRATION
● Accurate short-term forecasting
● Shallow ancillary services markets
● Low large-scale RE penetration
● Projects not exposed to market
prices and conditions
GENERATION
● Oversupplied wholesale market
● Short dispatch intervals
● Shallow ancillary services market
ISLAND & MICRO-GRID
● Strong economics
● Risk mitigation
● Niche market
COMMERCIAL END-USER
● Affordable rooftop PV
● Reduced energy & power charges
16
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN AUSTRALIA, 2004-14 (AUD BN)
0.7
1.5 1.8
1.4 1.1
1.3
2.7
0.8 1.1
2.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2 0.3
0.8
2.4
4.7
3.3 2.1
2.3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Large-scale Small-scale
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
17
FORECAST PV SYSTEM CONNECTIONS IN AUSTRALIA, 2014-30
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY SECTOR
ANNUAL (MW) CUMULATIVE (GW)
CONNECTIONS BY SECTOR
ANNUAL (THOUSAND) CUMULATIVE (MILLION)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
Commercial annualResidential annualResidential cumulativeCommercial cumulative
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
Commercial annual
Residential annual
Residential cumulative
Commercial cumulative
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
18
ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVY-WEIGHTS
Note: data displayed for NEM-connected generators and electricity customers only (not natural gas).
EnergyAustralia data displayed for calendar year ending in noted financial year (due to reporting
inconsistencies). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Company filings.
NEM RETAIL MARKET SHARE, FY2014 CUMULATIVE MARKET SHARE OF
INSTALLED SMALL-SCALE PV
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
0.8% 0.3%
5.9%
93%
Origin Energy Other
1.3 million
24%
19%
30%
26%
AGL Energy EnergyAustralia
9.5 million
19
AGL Energy EnergyAustralia Origin Energy
Watch this space
Manufacturer AU Optronics Enphase Energy
Series PowerLegato AC Battery
Technology Lithium-ion LiFePO4
Energy capacity 7.2kWh 1.2kWh
Power capacity 3kW 275W/550W
Product launch mid-2015 early-2016 late-2015
Source: Manufacturers websites
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
STORAGE PRODUCT PARTNERSHIPS OF AUSTRALIAN UTILITIES
20
Source: Manufacturers websites
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
AUSTRALIA IS SEEN AS A KEY MARKET
21
Note: Current price is derived from market surveys in Australia, Europe and USA. System prices are exclusive of
local taxes. Local prices assume Australian energy storage is not subject to a regional premium/discount. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL ENERGY STORAGE COST (NOMINAL)
International benchmark
price (USD/Wh)
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
2.29
1.62
1.18
0.95
1.82
1.20
0.84 0.67
2015 2020 2025 2030
Local price (AUD/Wh)
22
Note: Current price is derived from market surveys in Australia, Europe and USA . System prices are exclusive of
local taxes . Local prices assume Australian energy storage is not subject to a regional premium/discount. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL ENERGY STORAGE COST (NOMINAL)
International benchmark
price (USD/Wh)
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
0.54
2.29
1.62
1.18
0.95
1.82
1.20
0.84
0.67
0.43
Tesla BNEF 2020 2025 2030
2015
Local price (AUD/Wh)
-76%
23
Note: Current price is derived from market surveys in Australia, Europe and USA . System prices are exclusive of
local taxes . Local prices assume Australian energy storage is not subject to a regional premium/discount. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL ENERGY STORAGE COST (NOMINAL)
International benchmark
price (USD/Wh)
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
0.43
0.12
0.32
1.10
2.29
1.62
1.18
0.95
1.82
1.20
0.84
0.67
0.88
Tesla BNEF 2020 2025 2030
2015
Installation
Inverter
System price
Local price (AUD/Wh)
-52%
24
Note: Current price is derived from market surveys in Australia, Europe and USA . System prices are exclusive of
local taxes . Local prices assume Australian energy storage is not subject to a regional premium/discount. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL ENERGY STORAGE COST (NOMINAL)
0.62 0.41
0.28 0.23
0.12
0.10 0.09
0.09
1.08
0.69
0.46 0.36
0.43
0.12
0.32
1.10
2.29
1.62
1.18
0.95
1.82
1.20
0.84
0.67
0.88
Tesla BNEF 2020 2025 2030
2015
Balance of system &installationInverter
Li-ion battery pack
International benchmark
price (USD/Wh)
Local price (AUD/Wh)
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
-52%
25
PAYBACK PERIOD OF 4KW PV + VARIOUS EUS CONFIGURATIONS IN QUEENSLAND (YEARS)
Note: Chart shows national average pay-back period. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
6 Historical PV
9 No storage 9 9 9
10 1kWh 9
15
3kWh
18 5kWh
24
10kWh
18
13
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT | Sydney | 3 June 2015
26
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