August 20, 2015

Transportation Analysis Meeting2015 Update

Tampa Bay RegionRoberto O. Miquel, AICP

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Agenda

Introductions SRESP Transportation Element Objectives Clearance Time Definitions Changes to Study Analysis Results Questions/Comments

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Transportation Objectives

Satisfy State Requirements Standardized definitions for clearance times

Statewide Consistency All RPC regions use same transportation methodology

Single or Multi-Region Analysis Each RPC has ability to conduct own analysis

Graphic User Interface Allows users ability to easily create and run evacuation scenarios

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Clearance Time Definitions

Clearance Time, To Shelter Clearance Time, In-County Clearance Time, Out-of-County Regional Clearance Time

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1. Clearance Time, To Shelter

The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable residents and visitors to a “point of safety” within the county based on a specific hazard, behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point in time when the evacuation order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle reaches a point of safety within the county.

All in-county trips reach their destination w/in county. Does not include any out-of-county trips.

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2. Clearance Time, In-County

The time required from the point an evacuation order is given until the last evacuee can either leave the evacuation zone or arrive at safe shelter within the County. This does not include those evacuees leaving the County, on their own.

All in-county trips reach their destination w/in county All out-of-county trips exit the evacuation zone, but may still be

located in the county Does not include out-of-county pass-through trips from adjacent

counties, unless they evacuate through an evacuation zone

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3. Clearance Time, Out of County

The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable residents and visitors to a “point of safety” within the county based on a specific hazard, behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point an evacuation order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle assigned an external destination exits the county.

Roadway network within county is clear. All out-of-county trips exit the county, including out-of-county pass-

through trips from adjacent counties. All in-county trips reach their destination.

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4. Regional Clearance Time

The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable residents and visitors to a “point of safety” within the (RPC) region based on a specific hazard, behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point in time when the evacuation order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle assigned an external destination exits the region.

Roadway network within RPC is clear. All out-of-county trips exit the RPC, including out-of-county pass-

through trips from adjacent counties. All in-county trips reach their destination.

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Changes to Study

Small Area Data based on 2010 Census Scenario years are now 2015 and 2020 Traffic Routing Algorithm has been modified to improve the

stability of model results Some regions have updated evacuation zones Transportation projects have been updated to reflect 2015

and planned 2020 conditions Shelter locations and capacities have been updated where

necessary

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TBRPC Model Network

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TBRPC Transportation Evacuation Zones (TEZ)

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TBRPC Behavioral Assumptions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Evacuation Level A Evacuation Level B Evacuation Level C Evacuation Level D Evacuation Level E

Perc

ent Resp

onse

Figure I I I -4 - Evacuation Participation Rates: Hillsborough County - Site-Built Homes

Zone A

Zone B

Zone C

Zone D

Zone E

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Evacuation Level A Evacuation Level B Evacuation Level C Evacuation Level D Evacuation Level E

Perc

ent R

esp

onse

Figure I I I -5 - Evacuation Participation Rates:Hillsborough County - Mobile Homes

Zone A

Zone B

Zone C

Zone D

Zone E

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TBRPCEvacuation Zones

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Analysis Results

Vulnerable Population

Remaining analysis split into two sections: Base Scenarios Operational Scenarios

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Base Scenarios

ScenarioOverall

Evacuation Level

Year Behavioral Response

Counties Evacuating (Evac. Level if different from

overall assigned level)One-Way

PlanUniversity Pop.

(Fall/Spring, Summer, None)

Tourist Rate (Default, Custom) Shelters (All, Primary, Custom) Response

CurveEvacuation

Phasing

Base Scenario 1 A 2015 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

Base Scenario 2 B 2015 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

Base Scenario 3 C 2015 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

Base Scenario 4 D 2015 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

Base Scenario 5 E 2015 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

Base Scenario 6 A 2020 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

Base Scenario 7 B 2020 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

Base Scenario 8 C 2020 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

Base Scenario 9 D 2020 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

Base Scenario 10 E 2020 100% Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando None Fall/Spring Default Primary 12-Hour None

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Analysis Results

Evacuating Population Evacuating Vehicles Shelter Demand

Evacuating Vehicle Trips by ScenarioBase Scenarios

Level A B C D E2015 575,620 720,650 947,085 1,117,804 1,269,958 2020 604,837 758,604 1,003,973 1,189,588 1,355,219

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Critical Link Maps

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Clearance Times

Evac Level A

Evac Level B

Evac Level C

Evac Level D

Evac Level E

Evac Level A

Evac Level B

Evac Level C

Evac Level D

Evac Level E

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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Figure IV-13 - Out of County Clearance TimesBase Scenarios

HillsboroughManateePascoPinellas

[____________________________________] [____________________________________]2015 2020

Out

of

County

Cle

ara

nce T

ime (

hours

)

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Operational ScenariosScenario

Overall Evacuation

LevelYear Behavioral

ResponseCounties Evacuating (Evac. Level if different from

overall assigned level)One-Way

PlanUniversity Pop.

(Fall/Spring, Summer, None)

Tourist Rate (Default, Custom)

Shelters (All, Primary, Custom)

Response Curve

Evacuation Phasing Other Notes

Operational Scenario 1 A 2015 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

CharlotteNone Summer Default Primary 9-Hour None

Operational Scenario 2 B 2015 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

CharlotteNone Summer Default Primary 12-Hour None

Operational Scenario 3 C 2015 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

CharlotteNone Summer Default Primary 18-Hour None

Operational Scenario 4 D 2015 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco,Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

Charlotte, CitrusNone Summer Default Primary 24-Hour

All Hour 1 Except Citrus

and Hernando at

Hour 6

All 24-Hour Curve except Citrus and Hernando use 18-Hour; Skyway Bridge

closes at Hour 18

Operational Scenario 5 E 2015 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco,Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

Charlotte, CitrusNone Summer Default Primary 24-Hour

All Hour 1 Except Citrus

and Hernando at

Hour 6

All 24-Hour Curve except Citrus and Hernando use 18-Hour; Skyway Bridge

closes at Hour 18

Operational Scenario 6 A 2020 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco,Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

CharlotteNone Summer Default Primary 9-Hour None

Operational Scenario 7 B 2020 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco,Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

CharlotteNone Summer Default Primary 12-Hour None

Operational Scenario 8 C 2020 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco,Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

Charlotte, PolkNone Summer Default Primary 18-Hour None

Operational Scenario 9 D 2020 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco,Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

Charlotte, CitrusI-4 and I-

75 Summer Default Primary 24-Hour

All Hour 1 Except Citrus

and Hernando at

Hour 6

All 24-Hour Curve except Citrus and Hernando use 18-Hour; Skyway Bridge

closes at Hour 18

Operational Scenario 10 E 2020 PlanningHillsborough, Manatee, Pasco,Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando,

Charlotte, CitrusI-4 and I-

75 Summer Default Primary 24-Hour

All Hour 1 Except Citrus

and Hernando at

Hour 6

All 24-Hour Curve except Citrus and Hernando use 18-Hour; Skyway Bridge

closes at Hour 18

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Analysis Results

Evacuating Population Evacuating Vehicles Shelter Demand

Evacuating Vehicle Trips by ScenarioOperational Scenarios

Level A B C D E2015 437,355 544,973 792,932 1,061,154 1,299,839 2020 462,454 577,556 931,651 1,133,030 1,389,460

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Critical Link Maps

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Clearance Times

Evac Level A

Evac Level B

Evac Level C

Evac Level D

Evac Level E

Evac Level A

Evac Level B

Evac Level C

Evac Level D

Evac Level E

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Figure IV-26 - Out of County Clearance TimesOperational Scenarios

HillsboroughManateePascoPinellas

[____________________________________] [____________________________________]2015 2020

Out

of

County

Cle

ara

nce T

ime (

hours

)

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Questions/Comments??