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CITY OF BROCKVILLEEMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW

JUNE 2015 | FINAL 1415025-001

in association with Strategic Projections Inc.

June 17, 2015 File No. 14.15025.001.P01 M. Maureen Pascoe Merkley, MCIP, RPP Director of Planning City of Brockville 1 King Street West, P.O. Box 5000 Brockville, ON K6V 7A5 RE: City of Brockville Employment Lands Review

Dear Ms. Pascoe Merkley,

MMM Group Limited and the Centre for Spatial Economics are pleased to submit this Final Employment Land Review (ELR) for the City’s review. We have prepared this ELR in accordance with the work plan provided to you in our letter dated April 9, 2015.

We are happy to discuss the details, conclusions and implications of this ELR at a time that is convenient for you. Please feel free to call me to discuss.

Yours truly,

MMM Group Limited

Chris Tyrrell, MCIP, RPP Vice President, Planning & Environmental Design Partner

MMM Group Limited City of Brockville | Employment Lands Review (June 2015)

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The City of Brockville retained MMM Group Limited (MMM), in association with Strategic Projections Inc.

(SPI), to update its employment projections and review its employment area land needs to the Official

Plan planning horizon of 2031. The City is required by the Province to undertake such analysis to ensure

that it has a sufficient supply to meet anticipated needs for employment area businesses and to support

the broader economy.

Updated projections and land needs were necessary to incorporate the results of the 2011 Census and

National Household Survey as well as the revised economic growth outlook associated with the recovery

from the 2008/2009 recession. The 2009 Growth Analysis Study undertaken for the Official Plan

contemplated the potentially urgent need for this work and recommended that employment land reviews

be undertaken every five years. In particular, the 2009 Study noted the emergence of increasingly land

extensive transportation, warehouse and distribution facilities in the Greater Toronto Area that could

expand to Brockville. The impact of this in Brockville would increase employment land absorption,

particularly for larger parcels, and could result in an insufficient range of land supply necessary to meet

anticipated needs. Other factors contributing to the need for an expedited Review include: the recent

increase in land extensive development inquiries and activity; the limited number of large parcels

available to accommodate these uses; and, the lead time typically required to bring additional large lot

supply online, should the need be confirmed.

The Study Team’s inventory of the City’s designated employment areas, identified vacant and occupied

lands. Vacant parcels were further organized into “confirmed” and “possible” land supply categories. In

consultation with City staff, parcels verified as available for development at the time of the report were

deemed to be confirmed supply, while sites with infill and redevelopment potential were categorized as

possible supply. Furthermore, due to their infrequent and more isolated nature, parcels located outside of

the City’s two business parks were factored out of the supply to be consistent with the Planning Act

definition of Employment Area.

The Study Team then generated a baseline land needs analysis, as well as two alternative scenarios,

which compared the rate at which the land supply would be consumed by demand. The baseline analysis

was generated under the assumption that status quo conditions, estimated using recent historical trends,

would persist. The scenarios were provided to assist with estimating the extent to which emerging

development trends could vary from the baseline.

The first of the two scenarios considered the effect of factoring out the land and jobs represented by “near

term” development proposals. These reflect recent/active development applications and confirmed

development interests even though they have not been built or initiated construction and which were not


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factored into SPI’s employment projections. The second scenario applied the average density of only

those employment area development projects that had occurred since the 2008/2009 recession. This is in

contrast to the baseline scenario which is based on the density of all occupied industrial buildings in the

employment areas regardless of when they were originally built.

Based on historical trends, the City’s total employment area supply (unserviced and serviced) is likely

sufficient to 2031; however, the results of the scenarios and sensitivity analyses indicate that the total

serviced supply could be exhausted prior to 2021. Notwithstanding the total supply, emerging

developments in the City’s Employment Areas are trending towards more land extensive businesses,

requiring lots that are over 4 ha. In this respect, given the demand for large lots, the City’s supply may be

exhausted prior to 2031, with the serviced parcels exhausted as early as 2016.

Based on the results of this Employment Lands Review, the following actions are recommended for the

City’s consideration:

1. Expedited Servicing of Remaining Designated Large Lots

2. Planning Study for Future Employment Area / Urban Reserve Area in Northwest Quadrant

3. Economic Impact Study to Accommodate Proposed Land Extensive Developments


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 1

a. Study Scope & Purpose ............................................................................................................. 4

b. Report Structure ......................................................................................................................... 5

2.0 EMPLOYMENT AREA POLICY CONTEXT ...................................................... 6

a. Employment Areas Defined ....................................................................................................... 6

b. Why Are Employment Areas Important? .................................................................................. 8

c. Brockville’s Employment Area Policies ................................................................................... 8

3.0 ECONOMIC PROFILE ..................................................................................... 13

a. Overview of Brockville’s Economy ......................................................................................... 13

b. Macro-Economic Drivers & Trends ......................................................................................... 15

c. Competitive Characteristics .................................................................................................... 21

d. Summary .................................................................................................................................... 25

4.0 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ..................................................................... 26

a. City-wide Employment Projections......................................................................................... 26

b. Control for Work at Home ........................................................................................................ 27

c. Employment Area Employment Proportions ......................................................................... 27

d. Employment Projections for Employment Areas Only ......................................................... 30

5.0 SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS....................................................................... 31

a. Evaluation of Brockville’s Land Supply ................................................................................. 31

b. Brockville’s Projected Land Demand ..................................................................................... 43

c. Baseline Land Needs ................................................................................................................ 44

d. Scenarios & Sensitivity ............................................................................................................ 46

6.0 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................... 53

a. Employment Land Needs ......................................................................................................... 53

b. Strategic Direction .................................................................................................................... 54

7.0 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................. 56

APPENDIX

Appendix A – SPI Employment Projection Assumptions


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EXHIBITS

Exhibit 1: Geographic Context ...................................................................................................................... 3

Exhibit 2: Business Parks .............................................................................................................................. 7

Exhibit 3: Schedule 1 – City Structure, City of Brockville Official Plan ......................................................... 9

Exhibit 4: Employment Structure Comparison (Statistics Canada, 2015) .................................................. 14

Exhibit 5: Largest Employers ...................................................................................................................... 15

Exhibit 6: City-wide Sectoral Employment Change 2001-2014 .................................................................. 17

Exhibit 7: Sectoral Share Change 2001 to 2014 ......................................................................................... 18

Exhibit 8: Brockville’s GDP Growth (Conference Board of Canada, 2014) ................................................ 19

Exhibit 9: Age Distribution .......................................................................................................................... 20

Exhibit 10: Education Distribution ............................................................................................................... 23

Exhibit 11: Reported Employment Land Supply (Statistics Canada, 2015; Watson & Associates, 2015;

MMM Group Limited, 2014) ........................................................................................................................ 24

Exhibit 12: Industrial Property Tax Rates .................................................................................................... 25

Exhibit 13: Comparison of City-wide Employment Projections (Watson & Associates, 2009) ................... 27

Exhibit 14: Employment Area Sectoral Share of City-wide Employment .................................................... 28

Exhibit 15: Statistic Canada 2011 Dissemination Areas by Designated Employment Areas ..................... 29

Exhibit 16: Total Employment Projection (within Employment Areas) ........................................................ 30

Exhibit 17: Cumulative Employment Change (within Employment Areas) ................................................. 30

Exhibit 18: Classification of Employment Areas.......................................................................................... 36

Exhibit 19: Parcel Size of Employment Area .............................................................................................. 37

Exhibit 20: Employment Area Parcel Classification Areas .......................................................................... 38

Exhibit 21: Supply within Business Parks ................................................................................................... 39

Exhibit 22: Possible Supply within Business Parks .................................................................................... 40

Exhibit 23: Larger Lot Supply in Business Parks ........................................................................................ 40

Exhibit 24: Supply Characterization ............................................................................................................ 41

Exhibit 25: Possible Supply Characterization ............................................................................................. 42

Exhibit 26: Baseline Employment Area Land Demand Projection .............................................................. 43

Exhibit 27: Baseline Supply Remaining ...................................................................................................... 44

Exhibit 28: Cumulative Land Need .............................................................................................................. 45

Exhibit 29: Serviced Land Need .................................................................................................................. 46

Exhibit 30: Confirmed Near Term Development ......................................................................................... 47

Exhibit 31: Total Land Need Accounting for Near Term Development ....................................................... 48

Exhibit 32: Serviced Land Need Accounting for Near Term Development ................................................. 49

Exhibit 33: Total Land Need Accounting for Emerging Density .................................................................. 51


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Exhibit 34: Serviced Land Need Accounting for Emerging Density ............................................................ 52

STANDARD LIMITATIONS

This report was prepared by MMM Group Limited (MMM) and Strategic Projection Inc. (SPI) for the City of

Brockville (City) in accordance with our work agreement. This report is based on information provided to

MMM which has not been independently verified.

The disclosure of any information contained in this report is the sole responsibility of the City. The

material in this report and all information relating to this activity reflect MMM’s judgment in light of the

information available to us at the time of preparation of this report. Any use which a third party makes of

this report, or any reliance on or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third

parties. MMM accepts no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by a third party as a result of

decisions made or actions based on this report.

MMM warrants that it performed services hereunder with that degree of care, skill, and diligence normally

provided in the performance of such services in respect of projects of similar nature at the time and place

those services were rendered. MMM disclaims all other warranties, representations, or conditions, either

express or implied, including, without limitation, warranties, representations, or conditions of

merchantability or profitability, or fitness for a particular purpose.

This Standard Limitations statement is considered part of this report.


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1.0 INTRODUCTION

The City of Brockville retained MMM Group Limited (MMM) in May 2015, in association with Strategic

Projections Inc. (SPI), to undertake an update of its employment projections and a review of its

employment area land needs to the Official Plan planning horizon of 2031. The results of this review are

provided in this Employment Land Review (ELR) report.

With a population of just under 22,000 people, Brockville is located in eastern Ontario between the City of

Kingston to the west and the City of Cornwall to the east. It is one of the oldest cities in the province and

benefits from its location between Toronto and Montreal along the Province’s major transportation

corridors, including the St. Lawrence River, Highway 401 and the CN/CP rail lines, as well as access to a

local airport and three international bridges. Given its location and access to a variety of the Province’s

transportation corridors, the City’s employment areas are home to many of the Country’s largest multi-

national companies with respect to manufacturing, goods warehousing, shipping and logistics. Exhibit 1

provides an overview of Brockville’s location and multi-modal access.

Several factors contributed to the City staff’s recommendation that the ELR be undertaken, including:

1. The population, employment and land budgeting forecasts contained in the City’s Official Plan

(OP) were developed during the last economic recession period between 2008 and 2009, which

had followed an extended period of rapid economic growth. Since then, economic recovery has

begun and 2011 Census and National Household Survey results have been released. On this

basis, it is likely that Brockville’s economic growth trajectory, and therefore land needs, has

evolved since the City’s last OP review;

2. The City has seen a recent increase in the magnitude of employment area development activity

(i.e. recent completions, development proposals and development information requests);

3. The City has received a number of exploratory requests from businesses regarding the

availability and suitability of large employment area lots to accommodate new transportation and

warehousing operations; and,

4. The City’s Economic Development Office has expressed that Brockville has an insufficient supply

of shovel-ready large lots to effectively compete for new business investment.

Furthermore, the City’s most recent land budgeting exercise, completed by Watson and Associates in

2009, in association with MMM, noted an emerging trend in the Greater Toronto Area of increasingly land

extensive transportation, warehouse and distribution facilities. Given the significant presence that these

industry sectors have in Brockville, it was highlighted at the time that the spread of this trend to the City

could significantly lower average employment lands density, and significantly increase the rate of


2

employment area land absorption. Due to the potential risk that this dynamic posed (i.e. exhaustion of the

City’s employment area supply much earlier than expected), the Study recommended that employment

land reviews be undertaken every five years.

MMM, at the request of the City, therefore undertook an update of Brockville’s employment projections in

association with SPI, and initiated a quantitative and qualitative review of the City’s designated

employment area land supply. Using these updated results, MMM evaluated whether the City likely

retains sufficient employment area supply to accommodate Brockville’s projected needs to the 2031

Official Plan horizon. Given that the City is nearing the timeframe to contemplate its next statutory Official

Plan Review, the Study Team also extended the updated employment area job and land needs analysis

to the 2036 and 2041 horizons. These extended results were provided as information to assist the City

with its future planning studies.

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a. Study Scope & Purpose

This ELR involves updated population and employment projections to 2031, using 2014 as the baseline

year. The updated projections incorporate 2011 Census and National Household Survey results which

would not have been available when the OP was drafted. Furthermore, more current economic growth

assumptions have been applied to the updated projections as relevant economic conditions affecting

Brockville have changed significantly since the OP was drafted during the 2008/2009 recession. The

employment projections are supplemented by an updated inventory and analysis of the designated

employment land supply and constraints associated with relevant factors such as servicing, location and

parcel size.

The intent and purpose of this ELR is to answer the following questions as they relate to the City’s

employment areas:

1. Is it likely that the City’s employment areas forecast will deviate from the OP forecast, and if so,

by how much?

2. What is the City’s current and projected land absorption rate of employment area?

3. What are the City’s employment area land needs to 2031?

It is not the intent of this Study to address the overall supply and demand for non-employment uses (i.e.,

population-related uses) outside of employment areas. Furthermore, the Study does not focus

substantially on office uses as the vast majority of these uses are not currently, or projected to be, located

in the City’s employment areas.

It should be noted that Brockville is a separated City that is geographically surrounded by the Township of

Elizabethtown-Kitley in the United Counties of Leeds and Grenville (UCLG). Brockville also functions as a

regional population and service centre for area municipalities including the localities in Leeds and

Grenville, as well as the separated Towns of Gananoque and Prescott. The updated population and

employment projections undertaken by SPI have, therefore, been undertaken on a broader basis for the

Brockville Census Agglomeration, with the City’s likely share of growth projected specifically on the basis

of current demographic and recent economic trends.


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b. Report Structure

The remainder of this ELR is structured in the following manner:

Section 2.0: Employment Area Policy Context ■ This section defines employment areas and provides the policy context within which the study has

been conducted.

Section 3.0: Economic Profile ■ Employment land projections are based on historic and emergent economic trends. This section

defines the macro- and micro-economic factors that influence growth in Brockville. This section also outlines Brockville’s key attributes in strategic sectors.

Section 4.0: Employment Projections ■ This section provides updated employment projections to 2031.

Section 5.0: Supply-Demand Analysis ■ This section provides a qualitative analysis of Brockville’s employment supply and demand to 2031.

Section 6.0: Conclusions & Recommendations ■ This section outlines the results of the study and provides the City with recommendations for next

steps.


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2.0 EMPLOYMENT AREA POLICY CONTEXT

The Study Team reviewed relevant planning policy documents, as well as available information sources

and background studies, to identify and scope requirements that would need to be addressed by the

Study. The findings of this review of relevant provincial and local policies are provided below and are

organized to address the key questions of:

■ What are Employment Land and Employment Areas;

■ Why are Employment Areas vital to Brockville’s economy; and,

■ What are key local concerns with respect to Brockville’s employment areas?

a. Employment Areas Defined

The Planning Act (the “Act”) requires that municipalities be consistent with several defined matters of

provincial interest. These matters include the adequate provision of employment opportunities as well as

the appropriate location of growth and development. The Act goes on to define an “area of employment”

to mean, “an area of land designated in an official plan for clusters of business and economic uses”.

The uses that may be clustered to form an area of employment include:

1. Manufacturing;

2. Warehousing;

3. Selected office uses;

4. Retail uses that are associated with the above; and

5. Facilities ancillary to the above.

Brockville contains two clusters of employment uses that meet the Act’s definition of “area of employment”

and these clusters include the Broome Business Park located in the north-east quadrant of the City and

the Western Industrial Park located on the central-west side of the City just south of Highway 401. Exhibit

2 illustrates the size and location of the two business parks. There are some additional employment uses

that lie along the east-west rail corridor that traverses the City. Although these properties have a history

of accommodating employment uses and are protected in the City’s OP for such uses, they are no longer

considered “areas of employment” as they no longer represent clusters of employment having been

encroached upon over the decades by other incompatible and sensitive uses (e.g. residential and

commercial).

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Title: Business Parks

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b. Why Are Employment Areas Important?

Brockville’s employment areas are the drivers for local and regional economic development. These areas

represent the focus of employment within the City and are home to major employers, including Giant

Tiger, Shell Canada, Proctor & Gamble, 3M, Trillium Health, Burnbrae Farms and Canarm. The

maintenance of a range of employment land options for new business investment that are shovel-ready is

a priority for the City’s economic and fiscal stability. Employment area development influences the

economic multipliers that benefit Brockville’s residents through a greater availability of jobs and access to

community services made possible through a larger municipal tax base.

The Province, through the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS), has made it a matter of public policy to

protect and encourage the development of employment areas. This will ensure the growth and

development of local economies thereby ensuring the growth of Ontario’s economy overall. The PPS

contains policies that protect employment areas by requiring planning authorities to:

■ plan for, protect, and preserve employment areas for current and future uses and ensure that the necessary infrastructure is provided to support current and projected needs(s. 1.3.2.1);

■ protect employment areas in proximity to major goods movement facilities and corridors for employment uses that require those locations (s. 1.3.2.3); and,

■ protect employment lands from conversion and require sufficient planning justification for such proposals to be demonstrated through comprehensive review (s. 1.3.2.2).

The planning for, and protection of, Brockville’s employment areas is required of the City as a matter of

provincial interest. More critically, however, the maintenance of a shovel-ready supply of clustered,

serviced employment land is needed for Brockville to be competitive in the Provincial market for new

business investment, which in turn, will lead to the creation of jobs and economic benefits overall.

c. Brockville’s Employment Area Policies

The City’s employment area policies are identified within its OP, which was approved, with modifications,

by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing on February 9, 2012. The OP was developed on the

basis of a 20-year planning horizon to the year 2031.

Designated Employment Areas

The City’s OP designates “Employment Area” lands which are intended to accommodate industrial,

manufacturing, logistics and related uses and require separation from sensitive land uses as shown in

Exhibit 3.

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Approved by MMAH February 9, 2012

Schedule 1

City StructureLand Use Designations

Downtown and Central Waterfront Area(See Section 4.2)Neighbourhood Area(See Section 4.3)Neighbourhood Development Area(See Section 4.4)Mixed Use and Commercial Area(See Section 4.5)

Corridor Commercial Area(See Section 4.6)Employment Area(See Section 4.7)Institutional Area(See Section 4.8)Parks and Open Space Area(See Section 4.9)Urban Reserve Area(See Section 4.10)

LegendMixed Use Node (See Section 3.2.2.1)

Mixed Use Corridor (See Section 3.2.2.1)

Future Employment (See Section 3.2.5)

# Waste Disposal Site (See Section 5.4)

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Section 3.2.5 of the OP guides development on designated Employment Area lands and permits a wide

range of employment area uses including manufacturing, warehousing / distribution, logistics operations

and offices. The policies also recognize other supporting uses that may be appropriate, including:

■ A wide range of accessory and office/prestige industrial uses; and,

■ Ancillary service commercial uses serving the Employment Area employees including restaurants, parking facilities and business services.

Furthermore, institutional and large-format retail uses are directed outside of the City’s Employment

Areas.

These policies ensure that noxious uses, such as heavy industrial uses that may emit noise, odour, air

emissions or vibration, are only to be considered if they can satisfy the requirements for a permit issued

by the Ministry of the Environment (MOE). The OP also contains several policies that identify

requirements for heavy industrial/noxious uses. These include the requirement for minimum separation

distances, as defined by the MOE, from sensitive land uses and the preparation of studies to demonstrate

potential impacts on sensitive uses can be mitigated. Similar to other municipalities, the open storage of

goods is permitted; however, along Highway 401, and any major arterial, collector or local roads, outside

storage must be screened from view.

Future Employment/Urban Reserve

On the west side of the City, and immediately north of Highway 401, are lands that were deemed to

warrant protection outside of the OP’s planning horizon for future employment uses. Additional lands are

also located immediately west of North Augusta Road/Broome Business Park. These lands are identified

on Schedule 1 to the OP with an overlay as “Future Employment” acknowledging that while underlying

land uses may continue for some time, at some point in the future they may be considered for

employment uses. These lands are strategically located with access to major transportation corridors and

in proximity to other employment uses, and for that reason, are protected for the long-term from

incompatible/sensitive land uses.

A portion of the future employment lands that are located on the north side of Highway 401 and,

generally, west of Stewart Boulevard and on the east side of North Augusta Road are also subject to an

“Urban Reserve Area” Designation. Similarly to the “Future Employment” overlay, the development of

these lands fall outside of the 2031 planning horizon of the OP. It is intended that the future use of these

lands be identified through additional Secondary Planning studies to determine the preferred land use,

community design, transportation and servicing policies.


11

Further review of these policies and lands will be required should the results of this study warrant

consideration of additional supply:

1. The PPS allows municipalities to reserve land for future employment uses to protect against the

development of incompatible uses in the interim; and,

2. These lands represent the City’s intent for employment growth should there be absorption of the

supply in the existing employment areas.

Municipal Servicing

It is a policy of the City’s OP that development within designated Employment Areas is accommodated on

full municipal water and wastewater services (s. 3.2.5.5.ii). In the event access to full municipal services

and/or capacity is unavailable, the City will defer the processing of applicable planning applications until

these servicing issues are resolved, or a servicing agreement is in place (s. 5.3.4.1).

The majority of the designated Employment Areas within the Broome Business Park and Western

Industrial Park, as well as those along the east-west rail corridor, are currently serviced with municipal

water and wastewater services. However, some properties located along the periphery of these

Employment Areas are not currently serviced, as illustrated with hatching on Exhibit 18. It is noted

however, that sufficient reserve capacity exists within the City’s water and wastewater system.

2009 Official Plan Review Growth Analysis Study

Watson and Associates prepared a Growth Analysis Study in 2009, in association with MMM, as a

supporting background study to the latest OP. While the Study identified that the City had ample

employment land supply, at the time, to accommodate projected needs beyond the 2031 horizon, it also

noted that:

Throughout the GTA, a number of large logistics companies have recently developed

warehousing and distribution facilities at over 100,000 s.m. (1 million sq.ft.) with average

employment density levels ranging from 7 to 15 employees/net ha (3 to 6 employees/net

acre). Potential development of this nature in Brockville could significantly increase the

City’s forecast absorption levels on employment lands (Watson & Associates, 2009, pp.

7-12).

The Study assumed that the employment areas would continue to develop at an average net density of

20 employees per net ha and that overall employment growth, including the industrial sectors, would

generally continue to grow at a moderate pace.


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A key distinction that the Study made was that:

Long-term employment land requirements should also consider land needs associated

with the relocation of existing businesses. Land availability may not be adequate for

existing industries looking to physically expand their current facilities for several reasons

including: limitations of existing lot area/configuration, physical development constraints

which can impede expansion, limitations of vacant land supply within adjacent lands

(Watson & Associates, 2009, pp. 7-12).

Furthermore, the Study concluded that vigilant review of the City’s employment area land needs was

warranted given that:

Notwithstanding the City’s large vacant employment lands inventory, there are a number

of factors which can influence and potentially limit Brockville’s long-term employment land

availability, including physical development constraints, servicing capability, land

vacancy, market availability and choice, land needs of potential large land-extensive

industries and potential future land needs of existing industries looking to expand or

relocate. Given these above factors, it is recommended that the City’s land needs on

employment lands are regularly reviewed (minimum of every five years) (Watson &

Associates, 2009, pp. 8-3).


13

3.0 ECONOMIC PROFILE

The factors that influence Brockville’s economy are macro- and micro-economic in nature. The Study

Team has reviewed relevant components of the City’s economic structure to assess the competitive

position of Brockville’s employment areas, insofar as it relates to the broader region, and its readiness to

endure and capitalize on macro- and micro-economic trends.

a. Overview of Brockville’s Economy

While Brockville is a regional service centre with a significant public administration and health care

employment presence, its economy is also heavily concentrated in the traditional industrial sectors. The

vast majority of the businesses and employees in this sector are accommodated in Brockville’s business

parks, which include a number of major employers.

Sectoral Employment Shares

There exist some clear employment trends in Brockville as compared to the provincial average with

respect to sectoral employment share. Exhibit 4 summarizes sectoral employment shares in the City and

for the province as a whole based on the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS Profile, Brockville, CY,

Ontario, 2011; NHS Profile, Ontario, 2011). The chart indicates that Brockville’s manufacturing, retail

trade and health and social services sectors employed a larger proportion of its population than typical for

the province. Conversely, the City’s employment share for finance, insurance, real estate and

professional, scientific, technical services sectors was low compared to the provincial average.

Brockville’s transportation, warehousing and wholesale trade sector represented a large proportion of its

employment share, although lower than the provincial average. The overall characteristic that emerges

from this analysis with respect to Brockville’s employment base is that it is predominantly supportive of

industrial employment area uses as opposed to prestige employment uses, such as offices.


14

Exhibit 4: Employment Structure Comparison (Statistics Canada, 2015)

Business Parks

As has been discussed, Brockville’s employment land base is generally accommodated in two modern

business parks, the Broome Business Park and the Western Industrial Park. The vast majority of the

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Agriculture, other primary

Mining, oil and gas

Utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

Transportation, warehousing & Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Information, culture

FIRE

Professional, scientific, technical services

Other business services

Education

Health, social services

Arts, entertainment, recreation

Accommodation, food

Other services

Government

11

21

22

23

31

-33

41

/5 14

4-4

55

15

2/5 3

54

55

/5 66

16

27

17

28

19

1

Employment Structure Comparison

Brockville Ontario


15

City’s employment area jobs are concentrated in these parks. Some designated employment areas are

also located along the east-west CN and CP railway corridor that traverses the City.

The City has a history of strategically assembling and servicing industrial land for resale to private sector

interests with an expected timeframe for development. In order to motivate purchasers to develop the

properties, the purchase agreements typically contain a clause that stipulates that if the property is not

developed within an expected timeframe, the City will exercise an option to repurchase the property at a

preferred rate. The City has been relatively successful since the recovery from the recession of

2008/2009 at fostering absorption. See Section 5.0 for the review of the remaining employment supply.

Major Employers

The largest employers in Brockville, as well as in neighbouring municipalities, are summarized in Exhibit 5

This data was compiled from business directory information provided by the United Counties of Leeds

and Grenville Economic Development Office and illustrates the magnitude and nature of major employers

in the City (2014). It is clear from this analysis that the dominant employers are concentrated in the public

administration, health and institutional sectors (which tend to located outside of employment areas), with

a secondary concentration in industrial operations (which are virtually all accommodated in employment

areas).

Exhibit 5: Largest Employers

Employer Type Total Employees 2014

Upper Canada District School Board Public Admin / Health / Institutional 1,397

Brockville General Hospital (BGH) Public Admin / Health / Institutional 850

Procter & Gamble Inc. (P&G) Industrial 557

United Counties of Leeds and Grenville Public Admin / Health / Institutional 425

Trillium Health Care Products Inc. Industrial 328

3M Canada Company Industrial 300

Walmart Brockville Population-related 290

Transcom Industrial 276

City of Brockville Public Admin / Health / Institutional 275

St. Lawrence Lodge Public Admin / Health / Institutional 280

Canarm Ltd. Industrial 170

b. Macro-Economic Drivers & Trends

The national and provincial economic conditions that influence Brockville have varied significantly over

the past two decades (Watson & Associates, 2009). After the last economic recession of 2008/2009,


16

Brockville’s growth was slow but has more recently shown evidence of acceleration as Canada and

Ontario’s economic conditions have improved.

i. National & Provincial Conditions

Canada, Ontario and Brockville experienced strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth until a dip

during the last recession. Canada’s GDP decreased by 2.8% and Ontario’s decreased by more than 3.2%

during the 2008 and 2009 recession (Royal Bank of Canada, 2014). Ontario’s manufacturing, as well as

the residential and non-residential construction sectors were heavily affected by this decline.

The United States (U.S.) will significantly outperform Canada in 2015 with a forecasted rate of 3.1%

growth, an increase over the 2.4% growth seen in 2014 (International Monetary Fund, 2015). While

Canada is expected to grow at a lower rate due to the effects of decreasing energy prices on its large

energy sector, the weaker Canadian dollar and increased demand from the U.S are expected to offset

this impact (International Monetary Fund, 2015; Government of Canada, 2015). As a result of these

factors, however, Ontario’s economy in particular is expected to top the provincial GDP growth rankings

for 2015 (Royal Bank of Canada, 2015; Government of Canada, 2015).

Growth in Ontario is expected to occur in all sectors except the mining industry, which is predominantly

located in northern regions. In 2014, Ontario merchandise exports grew 8.0% with nearly all major export

categories reporting gains. Data from early 2015 indicates a continuation of the 2014 growth trends with

increased consumer spending (Royal Bank of Canada, 2015).

Overall, growth in exports in Ontario is expected to continue through 2015 and 2016, driven by

manufacturing-oriented economies within the southwestern and Hamilton-Niagara areas, which will see

the greatest increases (Ontario Chamber of Commerce, 2015 ). While there will be some negative

impacts on manufacturing stemming from the ailing energy industry, growth in demand from the U.S. as

well as increased consumer spending is expected to outstrip these losses. Indeed, motor vehicle and

parts experienced large gains in 2014, with an 8.5% increase in car and truck exports from the province

and a 14.4% increase in consumer goods (Ontario Chamber of Commerce, 2015 ). While provincial

economic growth, based on these trends, is anticipated to occur more rapidly west of Toronto, Brockville

and eastern Ontario are expected to share in the recovery, albeit at a slow and steady pace.

ii. Economic Trends

Sectoral Shift

Over the last two decades, globalization and trade liberalization have created a new environment for

companies in advanced economies where significant restructuring has occurred at regional and municipal


17

levels. This trend has resulted in widespread de-industrialization of cities in Europe and North America,

particularly of urban cores, as mature, routine, primarily manufacturing activities have been replaced by

lower-cost offshore competitors or relocated to lower-cost jurisdictions. For many cities in advanced

economies, this has meant a shift from low-cost products to innovative and high-value output in terms of

production. Ultimately, where enterprises previously sought to increase the scale of production to

minimize costs for competitiveness, the aim now is to produce high quality, innovative and customized

products, which translate to competition on value rather than cost (Statistics Canada, 2012; Babad,

2014).

It should be noted, however, that some industrial employers have chosen to return to domestic operations

in recent years motivated by client perception concerns with respect to human and labour rights,

production and transportation efficiency, as well as complexities and reliability relating to supply chain

logistics. A Financial Post article by Alexandra Lopez-Pacheco noted, for instance, that risks associated

with supply chain and distribution uncertainty in particular are magnified as delivery time expectations

shorten with the growth of online retailing channels (2013). Another article in the Globe and Mail by Barrie

McKenna noted that this trend has been more prevalent in the United States than in Canada, and

Canadian instances have generally been smaller firms (2013). Consequently, this trend should not be

interpreted, as signalling a return to historic manufacturing levels in Ontario.

In Brockville’s case, overall employment is estimated to have grown by approximately 1,024 employees

between 2001 and 2014 (Statistics Canada, 2015; Statistics Canada, 2008). This was predominantly

concentrated in population-serving and commercial employment sectors, such as in health, social

services; retail trade; education; other business services; government; arts, entertainment, recreation;

and finance and insurance, as per Exhibit 6. With respect to employment areas in particular, employment

generally declined by 946 employees over the same period. However, wholesale trade has seen

significant employment increases and transportation, warehousing, construction and agriculture, and

other primary have seen moderate increases.

Exhibit 6: City-wide Sectoral Employment Change 2001-2014

2001 2006 2011 2014 2001-2014

Arts, entertainment, recreation 90 215 285 262 172 191.00%

Agriculture, other primary 25 45 60 55 30 121.30%

Wholesale trade 415 650 710 718 303 73.10%

Other business services 555 1,060 740 804 249 44.90%

Health, social services 1,635 1,915 2,260 2,300 665 40.60%

Education 875 1,005 1,135 1,221 346 39.50%

Government 580 595 805 769 189 32.60%

Finance, insurance 580 640 730 752 172 29.60%


18

2001 2006 2011 2014 2001-2014

Retail trade 2,075 2,010 2,430 2,487 412 19.90%

Transportation, warehousing 410 480 460 472 62 15.10%

Construction 300 315 325 337 37 12.20%

Professional, scientific, technical services 570 395 590 602 32 5.70%

Other services 520 635 450 452 -68 -13.10%

Accommodation, food 1,210 1,065 900 989 -221 -18.30%

Manufacturing 3,605 2,700 2,550 2,468 -1,137 -31.50%

Information, culture 290 235 135 122 -168 -58.00%

Utilities 70 60 20 20 -50 -71.50%

Mining, oil and gas 0 0 0 0 0

Based on the above, Exhibit 7 summarizes how we estimate that Brockville’s economy has shifted in

terms of sectoral employment proportions between 2001 and 2014. The percentage of Brockville’s

manufacturing workers has declined by nearly 10% between 2001 and 2014, whereas the sectors that

have gained are predominantly population-serving, particularly health, social services; education; retail

trade, arts, entertainment, recreation; finance, insurance and other services. A notable exception is the

transportation, warehousing and wholesale trade sector which gained significantly between 2001 and

2006. More recently between 2011 and 2014, accommodation, food; education and other services have

gained employment share.

Exhibit 7: Sectoral Share Change 2001 to 2014

2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2014 2001-2014 Agriculture, other primary 0.14% 0.09% -0.04% 0.19%

Mining, oil and gas 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Utilities -0.08% -0.29% 0.00% -0.37%

Construction 0.07% -0.02% 0.04% 0.10%

Manufacturing -6.86% -1.77% -0.84% -9.47%

Transportation, warehousing & Wholesale trade 2.08% -0.04% 0.00% 2.05%

Retail trade -0.69% 2.32% 0.11% 1.74%

Information, culture -0.42% -0.75% -0.10% -1.28%

FIRE 0.36% 0.44% 0.06% 0.87%

Professional, scientific, technical services -1.31% 1.23% 0.02% -0.07%

Other business services 3.54% -2.49% 0.35% 1.40%

Education 0.83% 0.61% 0.45% 1.89%

Health, social services 1.82% 1.84% 0.01% 3.66%

Arts, entertainment, recreation 0.88% 0.42% -0.19% 1.11%

Accommodation, food -1.17% -1.43% 0.50% -2.10%

Other services 0.76% -1.44% -0.04% -0.72%

Government 0.04% 1.28% -0.33% 0.98%


19

Jobless Growth

While manufacturing’s share of Brockville’s economy has been declining for over two decades, following

a common trend in all developed economies, the City’s GDP has been steadily rising, with the exception

of the recession of 2009. This is illustrated in Exhibit 8, which shows that 2009 was the only year over the

period from 2005 to 2014 where Brockville had negative GDP growth.

Exhibit 8: Brockville’s GDP Growth (Conference Board of Canada, 2014)

Year Annual GDP Change

2005 7.5% 2006 8.3% 2007 7.1% 2008 2.4% 2009 -2.6% 2010 2.7% 2011 2.4% 2012 3.1% Average 3.9%

According to the data received from the City, approximately two dozen developments have occurred in

Brockville’s employment areas since 2003 (inclusive of new construction and additions). Since the

recession of 2008 / 2009, two new developments occurred and four expansions, all of which were

industrial in nature, virtually all of which were related to businesses with over 4 ha of land holdings within

the business parks. According to City staff, vacancy in employment area buildings is also at a 20-year

low. Since the recession, the average density of employment area development has been approximately

10 jobs per net hectare. This data supports that a trend is emerging regarding increasing demand for

large lot employment lands in Brockville.

Based on the above, despite the decline in manufacturing over the last decade, as well as the relatively

small increase in jobs overall, Brockville’s economy continues to grow. This jobless growth can be

attributed to efficiencies in business productivity and the sectoral shift from labour extensive businesses,

such as manufacturing, to less labour extensive enterprise, such as transportation, warehousing and

wholesale trade. This shift has also resulted in decreased employment densities and an increased

demand for large lot parcels. This finding has implications on the qualitative analysis of Brockville’s

employment area supply and will be discussed in greater detail in Section 5.0.


20

Aging and Mobile Labour Force

Another important trend in Brockville is the on-going demographic shift. The population is aging, in

concert with a general out-migration of younger-age cohorts (Statistics Canada, 2013). The age

distribution of Brockville’s population is provided in Exhibit 9.

Exhibit 9: Age Distribution

Brockville Ontario

0-14 13.6% 16.7%

15-64 63.6% 68.5%

65+ 22.7% 14.8%

Median 47.1 40.4

The mobility of the population in Brockville is higher than the provincial average, exacerbating the impact

of its aging population (Statistics Canada, 2013). Mobility rates (the proportion of the population that has

moved) are also higher than the Provincial average, in particular with 42% 5-year mobility reported in the

2011 National Household Survey relative the Provincial average of 37%.

This demographic shift is not unique to Brockville and is occurring in non-metropolitan municipalities

across Ontario, including the surrounding Leeds and Grenville Census Division. However, the shift does

have significant implications on the City’s future labour supply. This trend represents one of the risks to

Brockville’s economy that could be mitigated by leveraging its strengths and ensuring that the

employment land supply is sufficient to attract new business investment. That will, in turn, create jobs and

mitigate out-migration of younger-age cohorts.

The advancement of remote technology in healthcare and improved broadband internet may also provide

an opportunity to shift migration trends by easing pressures on citizens to migrate in order to capitalize on

services previously available exclusively in larger centres (Allen, 2015; Boland & Ivus, 2014). Advances

in such technologies play a role in allowing finance and insurance-related jobs to flourish. To take

another example, telecommunications and broadband market penetration has resulted in virtually all

universities and colleges offering distance education courses that have made it possible to earn post-

secondary degrees in-situ. In addition to enhancing the likelihood of attracting members of the creative

class and particularly entrepreneurs to invest in smaller centres, it is noteworthy that attracting even one

such entrepreneur could result in an entire family relocating to Brockville. Indirect effects on the

residential population growth would further increase Brockville’s overall economic potential.


21

Shifts in Retail Format

The broadband and internet revolution has triggered significant changes in retail trends, which in turn, has

caused changes in the transportation and warehousing sector. For instance, Frost & Sullivan (2013) have

hypothesized that by 2025, nearly 20% of retail may occur through online channels. This will have

significant implications on demand for parcel delivery services both in terms of volume and frequency,

and the nature of warehousing to service the “last mile” operation. More generally with respect to

transportation and warehousing, Building-products.com (2011) suggests that intermodal transportation,

particularly in terms of rail and truck, has been trending upwards, and the freight industry has been

exploring manners to increase efficiencies. Given that Brockville is located along the Toronto and

Montreal goods movement corridor in Eastern Ontario, an opportunity exists for Brockville to further

exploit its locational advantage. This has already been done in Cornwall, which is emerging as a hub for

distribution centers for large retail chains such as Shoppers Drug Mart and Wal-Mart.

Related to the rapid growth of online shopping in virtually all goods sectors, Deloitte (2012) has estimated

that retail space requirements could decline as much as 30% to 40% in some cases as physical stores

transition into digital showrooms, with fewer inventories on display and in stockrooms. Francine Kopun

(2014) of the Toronto Star has recently written that Canadian retailers are focusing on reducing their retail

backroom space in stores and enhancing efficient use of their showroom space. This growing trend could

become a significant force for change on the traditional large format retailer. In fact, this factor is thought

to have contributed to the decline of music, video, and book stores. Grocery retailers have been

experimenting with smaller formats and online shopping emphasized by Amazon recently entering the

Canadian grocery market. Supermarket retailer Yihaodian in China, for instance, has announced plans to

open thousands of micro/virtual supermarkets where customers can purchase items with their mobile

phones and arrange for home delivery (Canadian Grocer, 2012).

c. Competitive Characteristics

There are numerous factors that motivate employment-area based businesses to locate their operations

in a given jurisdiction. Brockville’s key attributes with respect to these factors are outlined in the following

general categories of geographic context, labour supply, land suitability and availability and fiscal

business conditions.

i. Geographic Context

As illustrated in Exhibit 1, Brockville is located within an area that is influenced by the major centres of

Toronto (3.5 hours), Ottawa (1 hour), Montreal (2.5 hours) and Syracuse (2.5 hours), as well as the

smaller centres of Kingston (1 hour) and Cornwall (1.5 hours) (Leeds & Grenville Economic Development


22

Office, 2014). Highway 401 connects Brockville to Toronto and Montreal, and Highway 416 connects it to

Ottawa to the north.

Brockville benefits from direct access to a variety of key transportation infrastructure. The City’s

employment areas are located in proximity to an airport, the St. Lawrence seaway, rail corridors, Highway

401 and three international bridges leading to New York state. The bridges also offer important

connections to the U.S. Interstate System.

The City owns the 1000 Islands Regional Tackaberry Airport (known as the Brockville Airport). As shown

in Exhibit 1, the Brockville Airport is located within minutes of the existing business and industrial parks in

the City. The Airport is open 24 hours per day and 7 days per week and is a CANPASS port of entry for

Canada Customs.

The international bridge crossings (Thousand Islands Bridge, the Ogdensburg-Prescott Bridge and the

Seaway International Bridge) operate 24 hours per day. These bridges accommodate a fraction of the

traffic/crossings compared to the Ambassador, Peace, and Blue Water Bridges resulting in significant

time and cost savings for personal and commercial vehicles (Ogdensburg Bridge and Port Authority,

2013; United States Department of Transportation, 2015).

From the perspective of major goods movement, Brockville is strategically located along the Highway 401

corridor, which is the major thoroughfare for intra-provincial trans-shipment and provides multiple

connections to the TransCanada Highway. The City is also centrally located on the CN and CP Rail

freight lines, which provides excellent rail shipping services to business and industry (Brockville, 2015).

ii. Skilled Labour Supply

In addition to the aging demographic trend noted in Section 3.0b.ii, the availability of labour is affected by

employment participation rates and education. Brockville’s employment rate was 51.7% according to the

2011 National Household Survey (56.5% for males and 47.7 for females) which was lower than the

Provincial average at 60.1% (64.2 for males and 56.3 for females). The employment rate represents

those that are employed out of all potential working age residents.

The unemployment rate, however, was 8.3% (9.3% for males and 7.1% for females) which was the same

as the provincial average of 8.3% (8.3% for males and 8.3% for females). This rate represents only those

people that are unemployed, and still actively seeking a job. Together, Brockville’s employment and

unemployment rates indicate that the City is about average for employing people that wish to be

employed and less than average for motivating all eligible working age people to work. This of course

does not include unpaid work, which is also valuable to society.


23

With respect to education, Brockville has a higher proportion of graduates with a High School Certificate

or Equivalent, Apprenticeship or Trades Certificate or Diploma and College, CEGEP or Other Non -

University Certificate or Diploma than the provincial average (Exhibit 10).

Exhibit 10: Education Distribution

Brockville Ontario

No Certificate, Diploma or Degree 21.0% 18.7%

High School Certificate or Equivalent 29.2% 26.7%

Apprenticeship or Trades Certificate or Diploma 9.2% 7.4%

College, CEGEP or Other Non - University Certificate or Diploma 24% 19.7%

University Certificate, Degree or Diploma below the bachelor level 3.1% 4.1%

University Certificate, Degree or Diploma at bachelor level or above 13.5% 23.4%

Brockville also benefits from its proximity to a number of post-secondary institutions which can potentially

be leveraged to augment the local labour force and provide partnership opportunities for economic

development. For instance, Queen’s University and the Royal Military College are located nearby in

Kingston. Most significantly, St. Lawrence College is located within Brockville and offers a full-range of

programs, graduate studies, apprenticeships, and online courses. This access to an educated and skilled

labour force may attract additional higher order employment uses, such as prestige employment, to

Brockville in the future and aid in retention of younger-age cohorts.

iii. Land Suitability & Availability

The City’s two business parks contain a critical mass of employment uses. The Broome Business Park

contains approximately 256 ha and the Western Industrial Park approximately 62 ha of designated

employment land. Both have a wide variety of healthy businesses and an overall low vacancy rate. The

strategic location of the employment areas in proximity to a variety of shipping methods make them well

positioned for goods movement.

With respect to the employment lands supply and demand balance in competing jurisdictions, it was

noted that Brockville had a relatively limited amount of designated supply available Exhibit 11 (Statistics

Canada, 2015; Watson & Associates, 2015; MMM Group Limited, 2014).


24

Exhibit 11: Reported Employment Land Supply (Statistics Canada, 2015; Watson & Associates, 2015; MMM Group Limited, 2014)

Municipality Reported Supply in Net Ha Total 2011 Population Kingston 257 123,363 Greater Napanee 248 15,511 Loyalist 188 16,221 Cornwall 183 46,340 Quinte West 176 43,086 Belleville 167 49,454 Edwardsburgh/Cardinal 72 6,959 Augusta 79 7,430 Brockville 56 21,870 North Grenville 47 15,085

It is noted that partially serviced employment area supply is available in North Grenville and

Edwardsburgh/Cardinal. Furthermore, Brockville may benefit from the fact that Ottawa’s employment

areas are transitioning to higher order employment uses, which may encourage more traditional

employment area uses to locate in other nearby markets (Metropolitan Knowledge International (MMM

Group Limited), 2008; MMM Group Limited, 2014).

iv. Fiscal Business Conditions

Employment area lands in Brockville generally fall within the $20,000 to $50,000 per acre range (United

Counties of Leeds and Grenville, 2015). For comparison, lands in the Johnstown Industrial Park in

Edwardsburgh/Cardinal average $15,000 per acre (United Counties of Leeds and Grenville, 2015). The

Town of Gananoque’s 2012 Industrial Park Feasibility report identified average business park land costs

within a 100 km radius of $52,000 per acre, dropping to $32,000 if Kingston was excluded (Millier

Dickinson Blais and Greer Galloway Group, 2012). On a broader scale, shovel-ready prices in Eastern

Ontario, according to Ontario East Economic Development (Ontario East Economic Development, 2015),

range between $10,000 and $110,000.

Industrial tax rates in Brockville are slightly higher than those in Eastern Ontario as illustrated in Exhibit

12; however, to maintain their competitiveness, the City waives all development charges for industrial

projects It is noted that, like many Eastern Ontario municipalities, a number of the surrounding local

municipalities do not apply development charges to industrial projects, including Kingston, Belleville, and

Cornwall (Watson & Associates, 2015; MMM Group Limited, 2014).


25

Exhibit 12: Industrial Property Tax Rates

Comparison Area Class Total Combined Tax Rate Elizabethtown-Kitley (2015) Industrial 1.01% North Grenville (2014) Industrial 3.16% Augusta (2015) Industrial Occupied 3.20% Edwardsburgh/Cardinal (2015) Industrial Taxable: Full 3.30% Ottawa (2015) Large Industrial 3.65% Gananoque (2014) Industrial - Occupied 3.82% Kingston (2015) Industrial Occupied (100%) Central 4.67% Prescott (2014) Industrial Occupied 4.92% Brockville (2015) Industrial 4.92%

Cornwall (2015) Industrial Taxable: Full 5.31% *All information was retrieved from municipal websites; see Section 7.0 for full sources.

d. Summary

The results of the economic profile confirm that Brockville is a regional centre providing services and

amenities for a much broader area. It has a significant economic base in the traditional industrial sectors

(particularly manufacturing, construction and transportation, warehousing and wholesale trade), making

the health and sustainability of its employment areas a vital planning consideration.

It should be noted that broader macro-economic conditions affecting the City are improving, and its

employment areas are anticipated to grow as a result. However, much of this growth is anticipated to be

“jobless” in nature and concentrated in the low-density transportation, warehousing and wholesale trade

sectors. Therefore, employment area land absorption is anticipated to continue as new employees

consume more land per capita due to increased productivity and efficiency.

Brockville is also well-positioned geographically between major business park and consumer markets in

both Ontario and New York, and in proximity to key transportation infrastructure. Fiscal conditions for

employment area projects in terms of land, development and operational costs are also reasonable given

the markets within which the City competes. Furthermore, Brockville is well positioned to benefit as

industrial operations in Ottawa expand or relocate as a result of its business parks transitioning towards

prestige employment uses.

While Brockville’s labour supply is well-oriented to industrial operations, there are emerging concerns with

respect to an aging and increasingly mobile work force as well as a lower employment rate than is typical

for the Province. Furthermore, while the City’s two business parks are well occupied with low vacancy, the

City’s supply of large lots, particularly shovel-ready and serviced large lots, is constrained.


26

4.0 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

As outlined in Section 1.0, the employment projections identified in the Official Plan were undertaken

during the 2008/2009 recession and, since that time, new Census results and economic data have

become available. As a result, updated projections were necessary.

As outlined in Section 2.0, the Provincial and local policy regime protects and prioritizes employment uses

in employment areas and, as such, accommodates a more limited range of workers than found elsewhere

in the City. Therefore, more detailed work, as described in the following sub-sections, was necessary to

derive employment projections relating only to the portion of the City’s workers that will locate in

employment areas.

a. City-wide Employment Projections

Employment projections for the Brockville Census Agglomeration and Census Subdivision were

developed by SPI (See Appendix A). SPI projected employment by industry sector in Brockville in five

year census intervals to 2041, inclusive of 2031 and 2036. The projections exclude employees with no

fixed place of work. These workers, such as travelling sales representatives and commercial vehicle

drivers, should not be allocated fixed space in employment areas due to their transient nature. The

updated projections were also extended beyond the 2031 planning horizon of the current Official Plan to

2041. This extension was undertaken to provide information to assist the City with future planning studies.

Furthermore, the PPS was updated in 2014 and now permits planning authorities to plan for and protect

employment lands and supporting infrastructure, provided that the lands are not being designated for

development beyond a 20-year planning horizon.

A summary of SPI’s results are provided in Exhibit 13, which identifies that total City-wide employment

continues to increase until 2041, but at a slower rate than the total population. When comparing SPI’s

projection to the targets identified in the City’s OP, population growth will be slower than was identified to

2021. Nevertheless, SPI’s projection indicates that employment growth was already higher than identified

in the OP identified as of the 2011 Census.


27

Exhibit 13: Comparison of City-wide Employment Projections (Watson & Associates, 2009)

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

SPI Population Projection 21,957 21,870 22,842 23,871 24,824 25,648 26,131 26,159

OP Population Target 23,100 23,400 24,100 24,200 24,600

Difference -1,230 -558 -229 624 1,048

SPI Employment Projection 14,020 14,585 14,992 15,619 15,846 15,988 16,054 16,036

OP Employment Target 14,190 14,580 14,970 15,250 15,520

Difference 395 412 649 596 468

b. Control for Work at Home

Consistent with Provincial land budgeting methodology, the space requirements associated with people

that work at home need to be excluded from employment area job projections (Government of Ontario,

1995; 2008). This is necessary because space requirements for these workers are allocated as part of

separate residential land budgeting planning processes. The Study Team therefore calculated the City’s

2011 work at home rates by each of the major North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)

sector and factored these employees out of SPI’s City-wide projection. It is assumed that the work-from-

home rates are fixed to 2041.

c. Employment Area Employment Proportions

The Study Team was then able to estimate the proportion of City-wide workers located on employment

lands by major NAICS sector in 2011 by comparing custom place-of-work based Census Dissemination

Area (DA) employment counts. Since Census DA boundaries do not align perfectly with the City’s

designated employment land boundaries, as provided in Exhibit 15, the Study Team manually determined

whether to include or exclude DAs from employment areas based on parcel, tax, and businesses data as

well as orthophotography. This information was then used as control totals to calibrate the estimates

generated using a second more granular process. The Study Team worked with the City to verify the

estimated number of employees and the primary major NAICS sector on each parcel within the

employment area designations.

Based on this analysis, it was estimated that approximately 21% of the City’s total employment is

currently located on designated employment lands. The sector-specific proportions were used to generate

a 2014 base estimate for the number of employees located in employment areas. However, it would not

be prudent to assume that the status quo proportions by sector will be valid for new employment area

development going forward. This is because the City’s existing businesses were established at different

times in the past when location context and criteria may have been different than those applied today.


28

The Study Team, therefore, adjusted the status-quo rates on the basis of empirical norms seen in other

parts of eastern Ontario and accounted for City-specific factors identified in the background review as well

as through consultation with City staff. The resulting go-forward rates, shown in Exhibit 14, are in line with

rates used in recent studies in other parts of eastern Ontario and are consistent with assumptions applied

in the City’s 2009 Employment Lands Study.

Exhibit 14: Employment Area Sectoral Share of City-wide Employment

NAICS Sector Existing Go Forward

Total employment 21% 25%

Agriculture, other primary 0% 100%

Mining, oil and gas 0% 100%

Utilities 40% 100%

Construction 0% 100%

Manufacturing 99% 100%

Transportation, warehousing & wholesale trade 45% 100%

Retail trade 1% 1%

Professional, scientific, technical services 2% 5%

Government 8% 10%

All other sectors 0% 0%

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TotalEmployment: 445DAUID:35070198

TotalEmployment: 110DAUID:35070246

TotalEmployment: 1015DAUID: 35070191






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City of Brockville - Employment Land ReviewLegend

Designated Employment Area

Statistics Canada 2011 Dissemination Areas

Title: Statistic Canada 2011 Dissemination Areas by Designated Employment Areas

St Lawrence River


0 0.5 1 1.5 20.25Km


30

d. Employment Projections for Employment Areas Only

The number of employees that will require accommodation within the City’s employment areas was

calculated by multiplying the City-wide sectoral employment counts by their respective sectoral go-

forward employment area proportion. Summary projection results are provided in Exhibit 16, highlighting

the key sectors that have significant influence on the overall employment within employment areas.

Exhibit 16: Total Employment Projection (within Employment Areas)

2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Manufacturing 2,352 2,289 2,092 1,912 1,739 1,575 1,419

Construction 10 24 81 127 173 221 268

Transportation, Warehousing & Wholesale Trade 536 550 616 639 650 650 640

All other sectors 110 112 120 124 128 130 130

Total Employment Area Wide 3,008 2,975 2,909 2,802 2,690 2,576 2,457

This analysis projects that the City’s employment areas will experience a net decline in jobs from 2014

reaching -358 jobs by 2031 and -591 by 2041. Virtually this entire decline however is concentrated in the

manufacturing sector. As outlined in Section 3.0b.ii, this Sector is experiencing significant change within

Brockville and at the national and provincial scales. Within Brockville, it is not currently anticipated that

manufacturing sector job losses will result in a net loss of manufacturing economic activity due to the

jobless growth and rapid productivity increase trends outlined in Section 3.0b.ii and the fact that

employment area land is still being absorbed in Brockville on a net basis.

Exhibit 17 outlines the employment area job projection if the manufacturing sector were excluded.

Exhibit 17: Cumulative Employment Change (within Employment Areas)

2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Total Employment Area Wide -40 -73 -139 -246 -358 -472 -591

Total Employment Area Wide, excluding manufacturing 15 45 177 249 310 360 398

Factoring manufacturing out, employment is projected to grow by 310 jobs by 2031 and 398 jobs by 2041.

The vast majority of employment area job gains are projected to manifest in the construction and

transportation, warehousing and wholesale trade sectors, with some growth in the professional scientific

and technical services sectors.


31

5.0 SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS

The process used to refine and characterize the employment land supply in Brockville is based on the

geographic distribution and magnitude of lands available. The process also considers the viability of the

supply based on location criteria from a private sector developer’s point of view. The supply analysis

included the following steps:

■ Confirming which lands are protected and prioritized for employment area uses and consistent with the provincial planning framework;

■ Considering the impact of development constraints on lands that make them unsuitable for employment development;

■ Categorizing the resulting refined supply inventory according to key location criteria including transportation access, lot size and location in relation to existing and potential employment area clustering patterns; and,

■ Using existing information, synthesizing results on the basis of:

o supply viable in the shorter term,

o supply potentially viable in the longer term, and

o supply that is unlikely to be viable.

a. Evaluation of Brockville’s Land Supply

The City’s Employment Area policies are consistent with the Provincial definition and criteria for

Employment Areas as outlined in Section 2.0a. Lands subject to this designation are predominantly

located within the Broome Business Park to the north-east and the Western Business Park, located south

of Highway 401. There are also several small and isolated pockets of lands which remain designated

along the rail corridor in the southern portion of Brockville.

i. Screening Criteria

A screening process was used to identify designated parcels that could be considered employment area

land supply (i.e. available for future employment development) on the basis of the nature of their existing

land use and a high-level review of their developable area. The process involved the following steps:

1. The employment area parcels were reviewed against the mapped Natural Heritage System

(NHS) within the City’s OP and the screening area of the Cataraqui Region Conservation

Authority. It was confirmed that there was virtually no overlap between the parcels and the NHS

screening area.

2. Parcels that were allocated to roads and infrastructure were screened out.

3. The remaining designated Employment Area parcels were divided into categories shown below.


32

■ Parcels that were identified to be vacant were classified as confirmed supply;

■ Parcels that have been acquired by area businesses for expansion purposes were categorized as possible supply. Further subcategories were created representing infill parcels, parcels with vacant buildings and parcels intended purely for storage expansion; and,

■ Occupied industrial and residential parcels were screened out.

It should be noted that the few small residential parcels, particularly those fronting onto North Augusta

Road, are very unlikely to be redeveloped for employment area uses unless a private developer or the

municipality is able assemble them in a strategic or comprehensive manner. Given that non-employment

uses are already existing and permitted to persist on these properties, and the fact that there is no

reliable way to identify when or if these uses may become available for assembly, the Study Team

screened the parcels out of the analysis.

ii. Evaluation Criteria

It should be noted that the quality or attractiveness of the employment area land supply is just as

important as the quantity. In particular, the provincial policy framework requires that a range of

employment lands be made available to meet projected demand in a sustainable manner.

There are countless characteristics which affect the desirability of employment land supply. In light of the

purpose and objectives of this report; however, the Study Team, in consultation with City staff, has

focused on key characteristics that form the evaluation criteria and include:

1. parcel ownership, size and fragmentation;

2. access to and visibility from major transportation infrastructure;

3. proximity and contiguity with other employment uses and areas; and

4. land costs and other site-specific development feasibility factors.

Each of these factors are further explained in the following subsections.

Parcel Ownership, Size & Fragmentation

Employment area developers and businesses often seek large and sufficiently assembled parcels due to

the site servicing needs of employment uses, such as shipping, storage, parking and loading. Visual

screening and future expansion considerations are also often applicable.

Different industries have different parcel size location requirements, depending on their operations. For

instance, traditional manufacturing and transportation and warehousing facilities will generally require

larger land holdings than office developments.


33

While a variety of parcel sizes is needed, the availability of large parcels plays a disproportionately

important role in ensuring viable employment area land supplies. This is because while large parcels can

accommodate businesses with large land requirements, they can also be sub-divided to accommodate

businesses with smaller land requirements, and they can accommodate business clusters that prefer to

locate near competition and/or suppliers for efficiency reasons. Another key factor to note is that large

parcels will generally accommodate businesses with more extensive employment needs, and therefore

have a larger impact overall.

Small parcels, on the other hand, can only accommodate businesses with small land requirements. While

it may be said that smaller parcels can be aggregated, this is generally viewed as more onerous than the

subdivision of large parcels. Land assembly is dependent on the availability of adjacent parcels, as well

as the willingness of their owners to sell. Due to encroachment, smaller parcels can often become

isolated and in the long term do not represent valuable employment supply. Smaller parcels are often

remnants from historic employment uses, particularly those located along rail corridors.

Based on the Study Team’s industry knowledge, 4-hectare (10-acre) sites are optimal for accommodating

an industrial facility of approximately 9,300 square metres (100,000 square feet) or an office facility of

approximately 18,500 to 28,000 square metres (200,000 to 300,000 square feet) due to greater site

coverage and depending on building coverage (Metropolitan Knowledge International (MMM Group

Limited), 2008). It therefore stands to reason, that to accommodate a cluster of these businesses, vacant

employment lands greater than 4 hectares should be provided in strategic locations.

Another key consideration is that larger parcels typically have greater servicing and infrastructure

requirements (e.g. internal road and stormwater management). The Study Team therefore applied a

gross-to-net factor to parcels over 2 hectares in size (MMM Group Limited, 2014; Metropolitan Knowledge

International (MMM Group Limited), 2008; Watson & Associates, 2009; Watson & Associates, 2015). This

control assumes that 20% of the gross lot area of these parcels would be consumed by on-site roads,

servicing and storm water management, and therefore would not be available for development. Given that

smaller parcels generally represent infill and intensification opportunities, which would already have these

features in place, the gross and net areas for small parcels were considered to be identical.

Access to, and Visibility from, Major Transportation Infrastructure

Primary employment area uses typically fit within complex transportation logistics systems, requiring the

regular, and often frequent, delivery and/or shipping of large-scale goods and supplies via highways, rail,

air and sea. For knowledge-based sectors, access to major transportation and transit routes allows the

workforce to commute to and from the business’ location. This enhances potential connections with

relevant institutions, such as university campuses that provide potential labour pool, partnership


34

opportunities and access to new technologies. As a result, it is beneficial for employment lands to be

located in proximity to major transportation routes and hub facilities. The entirety of Brockville’s business

park supply benefits from proximity to high capacity transportation infrastructure.

Proximity & Contiguity with Other Employment Uses and Areas

Consideration was given to the distribution of the employment land supply with respect to existing and

potential employment areas. As industries concentrate and cluster, the need for a business to locate in

the same geographic area with its suppliers and competitors increases due to efficiencies achieved by

operating in a zone that has already developed to service the sector. This factor is also closely related to

access to available transportation connections in terms of forming viable employment area nodes and

corridors which can reinforce each other and leverage opportunities from other neighbouring urban uses.

The Broome Business Park, and to a lesser extent, the Western Industrial Park, contain viable amounts

of short-term employment land supply. The City’s remaining designated employment lands are relatively

isolated from Highway 401; however, they are located in proximity to the rail network. Based on the

Planning Act criteria for employment areas (See Section 2.0a), and the Study Team’s experience with

other similar studies, these isolated remnant parcels lack the critical mass of large employment parcels

and proximal businesses necessary to thrive over the longer term (MMM Group Limited, 2014;

Metropolitan Knowledge International (MMM Group Limited), 2008; Watson & Associates, 2009; Watson

& Associates, 2015).

Land Cost & Development Feasibility

The feasibility of development is greatly dependent upon the land costs. Once a business has identified

prospective locations that provide competitive advantages, the cumulative capital costs and long-term

operating costs that are likely to be incurred are considered.

The cost of land, construction, development charges and municipal fees are typical capital costs for

parties buying land and undertaking construction. Operating costs usually include taxes, utility charges,

labour costs, and long-term financing. At times, low long-term operating costs can offset factors such as

high land costs.

Fiscal conditions for employment area development in Brockville are generally competitive based on the

background analysis undertaken in Section 3.0c.iv. However, within any employment area, the

development feasibility of some lands will still be affected by factors beyond those identified above The

development constraints posed by these other considerations is referred to as structural, systemic or

long-term vacancy. The effects of this type of vacancy are evidenced by seemingly viable supply parcels

which, for some reason, are never developed or formerly viable parcels that lie vacant and are never


35

redeveloped. The Study Team therefore applied a 15% long term vacancy factor to the supply to account

for this phenomenon, which is consistent with most employment land studies in Southern Ontario, which

generally apply factors ranging from 10% to 20% on the whole (MMM Group Limited, 2014; Metropolitan

Knowledge International (MMM Group Limited), 2008; Watson & Associates, 2015; Watson & Associates,

2009).

iii. Quantity

The following exhibits illustrate which parcels within the employment areas were screened and evaluated

against the criteria discussed above. Exhibit 18 is the classification of parcels based on their current use

and highlights those parcels within the employment areas which as not serviced. Exhibit 19 classifies all

parcels within the employment area by size.

401 HY E

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Designated Employment Area

No Servicing

Land ClassificationOccupied

Residential

Intensification Potential

Future Expansion

Vacant (public)

Vacant (private)

Vacant (building)

Title:Classification of Employment Areas

0 0.5 1 1.5 20.25Km

St Lawrence River


401 HY E

401 HY W

CENTENNIAL RD

KING ST W

STEWART BLVD

PAR

K ST

LAURIER BLVD

BROCK ST

KING ST E

OR

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ABBOTT STJAMES ST E

VICTORIA RD

GEORGE ST

DAN

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PEARL ST WBR

OO

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FRONT AVE W

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DesignatedEmployment Area

Parcel Size1) < 0.5 ha

1) < 1 ha

2) 1 - 2 ha

3) 2 - 4 ha

4) 4 - 6 ha

5) > 6 ha

Title: Parcel Size of Employment Area

St Lawrence River


0 0.5 1 1.5 20.25Km


38

Using the screening criteria, it was determined that just under 2601 net ha of land are occupied with

employment area land uses. Approximately 97% of these uses are concentrated in the Broome Business

and Western Industrial Parks.

Exhibit 20: Employment Area Parcel Classification Areas

Status Classification Total Net Ha

Net Ha In Business Parks

Parcels Parcels in Business Parks

Not Supply Future Expansion 3.68 3.68 1 1 Not Supply Occupied 259.79 251.63 88 81 Not Supply Residential 19.31 19.31 24 24 Possible Supply Intensification Potential 6.84 6.84 4 4 Possible Supply Vacant (Building) 1.01 0.83 2 1 Supply Vacant (Private) 30.87 28.91 15 11 Supply Vacant (Public) 13.00 13.00 5 5

There are approximately 43.87 net ha of land supply and a further 7.85 net ha of possible land supply

available and almost 95% of this supply is located within the existing business parks.

The designated employment lands that lie along the east-west rail corridor were excluded from the

calculated supply because they are isolated in nature and no longer meet the “cluster” requirements for

employment areas established under the Planning Act (See Section 2.0a).

iv. Summary Characterization

The combined employment land supply held in either public or private ownership is summarized in Exhibit

21. Generally, there are currently 16 confirmed supply parcels (vacant parcels either privately or publicly

owned) totalling just under 50 gross2 ha or 42 net ha of supply in the City’s employment areas. There are

a further 5 possible supply parcels (privately-owned potential infill sites) totalling approximately 8.5 gross

ha or just under 7.7 net ha.

Upon the application of the evaluation criteria and accounting for the long term vacancy factor (see

Section 5.0ii), there is approximately 19 ha of serviced, shovel-ready, supply, about half of which is

1 Including utility parcels with no identified jobs and parcels straddling designation boundaries 2 See parcel size under Evaluation Criteria for a description of gross vs net parcel size.


39

privately-owned. There is an additional 16.7 ha of unserviced supply that could be brought online in the

longer term. Overall, the City has just over 35 net ha of available employment area supply remaining.

Exhibit 21: Supply within Business Parks

Parcels Gross Area Net Area After Vacancy Private Ownership

Total Serviced 5 14.18 11.85 10.07 1) < 1 ha 2 0.88 0.88

2) 1 - 2 ha 1 1.66 1.66

4) 4 - 6 ha 1 4.45 3.56

5) > 6 ha 1 7.18 5.74 Total Unserviced 6 19.76 17.06 14.50 1) < 1 ha 1 0.78 0.78

2) 1 - 2 ha 3 5.47 5.47

4) 4 - 6 ha 1 4.67 3.74

5) > 6 ha 1 8.84 7.07

Total Private Ownership

11 33.94 28.91 24.57

Public Ownership

Total Serviced 3 12.98 10.39 8.83 3) 2 - 4 ha 2 4.51 3.61

5) > 6 ha 1 8.47 6.78 Total Unserviced 2 3.07 2.61 2.22 1) < 1 ha 1 0.77 0.77

3) 2 - 4 ha 1 2.30 1.84

Total Public Ownership

5 16.05 13.00 11.05

Grand Total 16 49.99 41.91 35.62

Several potential infill sites and vacant buildings were also identified in Section 5.0i, which represent an

additional potential supply (Exhibit 22). These parcels represent approximately 8.5 gross ha or 7.7 net ha

of potential supply.


40

Exhibit 22: Possible Supply within Business Parks

Parcels Gross Area Net Area After Vacancy Serviced 5 8.50 7.68 6.53

1) < 1 ha 2 1.53 1.53

2) 1 - 2 ha 2 2.90 2.90

3) 4 - 6 ha 1 4.08 3.26 Grand Total 5 8.50 7.68 6.53

Combining the above results from Exhibit 21 and Exhibit 22, it is apparent that there is a limited range of

larger lot (> 4 ha) supply available. Exhibit 23 demonstrates that only 6 of these parcels remain,

amounting to just over 30 net ha. Of these, only 4 parcels are serviced, amounting to less than 19 net ha.

Exhibit 23: Larger Lot Supply in Business Parks

Parcels Gross Area Net Area After Vacancy Serviced 4 24.18 19.35 16.45

Unserviced 2 13.51 10.81 9.19

Total 6 37.69 30.16 25.63

Exhibit 24 identifies the location of the supply within the business parks in City of Brockville and

characterizes the supply based on servicing, ownership and parcel size. Exhibit 25 is an overview of the

location of the possible supply within the business parks. All of the possible supply is serviced and within

private ownership.

401 HY E

401 HY W

CENTENNIAL RD

KING ST W

STEWART BLVD

PAR

K ST

LAURIER BLVD

BROCK ST

KING ST E

OR

MO

ND

ST

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N A

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REYNOLDS DR

PEARL ST E

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ABBOTT STJAMES ST E

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GEORGE ST

DAN

A S

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Title: Possible Supply Characterization

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0 0.5 1 1.5 20.25Km


43

b. Brockville’s Projected Land Demand

Multiplying the employment projections for employment areas from Section 4.0d by an average density

assumption enables the land demand projection to be generated. Land demand represents the collective

amount of land that each new worker will consume up out of the City’s supply (i.e. absorption). The

density assumption was calculated using the estimated number of employment area jobs in 2014

(identified in Section 4.0d), divided by the area of the occupied parcels (identified in Section 5.0a).

The estimated employment area jobs in 2014 (3,048), divided by the total occupied area (approximately

2483 net ha), yields an estimated density of just over 12 jobs/ha. Note that this figure is nearly half the

approximately 18-20 jobs/ha identified in the City’s 2009 Growth Analysis (Watson & Associates, 2009,

pp. 7-1). This indicates that each worker in the employment areas now requires nearly twice the amount

of land than was identified in the 2009 Study.

The amount of employment area land demand projected (i.e. land that will be absorbed starting from the

year 2014), is summarized in Exhibit 26.

Exhibit 26: Baseline Employment Area Land Demand Projection

Land Demand (net ha) 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Total 0 1.23 3.68 14.40 20.33 25.35 29.66 33.77

Based on the density assumption, it is anticipated that just over 25 net ha of employment area lands will

be required to meet projected demand by 2031, rising to just under 30 net ha by 2036 and just under 34

net ha by 2041. Virtually all of this demand is anticipated to be realized in the construction and

transportation, warehousing & wholesale trade sectors.

Based on the results outlined in Section 4.0d, the manufacturing sector in Brockville has experienced a

steady decline, which is projected to continue, while the transportation, warehousing & wholesale trade

sectors have shown modest employment growth overall since the last recession. As established in

Section 3.0b.ii, Brockville appears to be experiencing a significant level of “jobless”4, and very low density,

3 Including parcels which straddle designation boundaries and excluding utility parcels with no identified jobs. 4 For more on jobless growth, see Section 3.0b.ii


44

industrial growth. As a result, it is anticipated that the continued job decline projected in the manufacturing

sector will not result in the net release of occupied employment parcels. Overall net absorption of

employment lands in Brockville has remained positive due to rapid productivity increases in the industrial

sectors and the growth in construction and transportation, warehousing & wholesale trade, which are

extremely low density.

c. Baseline Land Needs

Baseline land needs evaluate how quickly the land demand projection will consume the available supply.

Based on the analysis of the City’s current employment area land supply in Section 5.0a.iii, Brockville has

anywhere between 19.49 and 45.10 net ha of supply remaining within its business parks, after accounting

for long term vacancy5, as shown in Exhibit 27. The supply remaining is broken out into confirmed supply

and possible supply as defined in Section 5.0a.i, which describes how the supply was categorized. The

summary also differentiates between the total (serviced + unserviced) supply and the serviced supply

only.

Exhibit 27: Baseline Supply Remaining

Supply in 2014 Total Serviced Confirmed Supply + Possible Supply (Best case) 42.15 25.43

Confirmed Supply 35.62 18.90

Confirmed Supply larger than 4 ha (Worst case) 22.86 13.67

Brockville’s baseline employment area land needs are summarized in Exhibit 28. . The baseline land

demand projection is shown as the diagonal line. The supply categories (as of 2014) are shown as the

horizontal lines.

5 For a description of Long Term Vacancy, see Section 5.0a.ii


45

Exhibit 28: Cumulative Land Need

Under the baseline projection (from 2014), which was generated using confirmed trends identified in

Section 3.0, it is anticipated that Brockville’s total supply will be exhausted soon after 2041. However, it is

likely that the supply of large parcels, which Section 5.0a.ii3.0 demonstrated to be the most desirable,

would likely be exhausted between 2026 and 2031.

Exhibit 29 summarizes the serviced supply remaining under the baseline land demand projection. Section

5.0a.ii demonstrated that the availability of servicing is a key consideration for employment area

developers and that servicing of land is often a lengthy process. This includes the time required to

manoeuvre through City processes (capital budget), undertake a Municipal Class Environmental

Assessment for the extension of servicing, and undertake construction. Should additional lands be

required, an integrated process would likely be undertaken as part of a Secondary Plan. Furthermore the

OP requires that employment area uses be serviced (see Section 2.0).


46

Exhibit 29: Serviced Land Need

This analysis indicates that the serviced supply will be consumed between 2021 and 2026, with the

serviced large lots likely to be exhausted earlier, between 2016 and 2021.

Collectively, the baseline analysis indicates that while the total supply is likely sufficient to 2041, the larger

lot supply will likely be consumed before 2031. In addition, the serviced supply will likely be consumed

between 2016 and 2026 regardless of parcel size.

d. Scenarios & Sensitivity

The baseline employment and land demand projection is based on recent and historical employment area

development trends. Scenarios are necessary to test the plausible range of alternatives in order to take

into account emerging trends in developing alternative employment absorption rates. The effect of these

alternative absorption rates are tested in the following subsection.

i. Near Term Development Scenario

It is important to consider the impact of near term development on land needs. This “near-term”

development accounts for recent/active development applications and confirmed development interests

even though they have not been built or initiated construction. This is based on the reality that even

though they have not been constructed, they represent a guaranteed removal of land supply from the


47

Employment Area and, as such, the estimated jobs that they could represent have been included into the

baseline job projection in 2014. The input used in this scenario for the calculations is based on

information provided by the City of Brockville.

In the City of Brockville, the City owns the majority of developable lands in the Business Parks and sells

the lands to businesses with the intent that they will be built and occupied in a timely manner. As such, all

of the privately-owned vacant supply in the Business Parks can be considered as having near-term

development opportunities. As referenced in Section 5.0a.iv, there were a total of 11 confirmed supply

parcels and a further 5 possible supply parcels between the two Business Parks (Broome and Western

Industrial).

However, to be conservative, the Study Team only included two confirmed and two possible supply

parcels with near-term development opportunities due to the firm development interest that has been

expressed for them. Development proposals for these parcels have advanced to the point where

estimated employment and use information are available. Key information regarding these four parcels is

summarized in Exhibit 30.

Exhibit 30: Confirmed Near Term Development

Parcel Size Proposed Jobs Development Timeframe Parcel Type 1 4 – 6ha 75 – 100 3 years Intensification Potential

2 1 - 2 ha 30 3 years Intensification Potential

3 > 6 ha 160 1 year Vacant (private)

4 4 – 6 ha 15 - 20 1 – 3 months Vacant (private)

Upon completing the calculations and accounting for the near-term development, the amount of total

occupied employment land increases to just over 2656 net ha, and employment increases by

approximately 300 jobs over the baseline scenario. Furthermore, and based on the type and use of these

near-term development’s (large lots and fewer employees), it is noted that the calculations result in an

approximate density of 11 jobs per ha, which is 9 jobs per ha lower than the density provided in the 2009

Growth Analysis undertaken for the OP project.

6 Including parcels which straddle designation boundaries and excluding utility parcels with no identified jobs.


48

Based on these results, and after accounting for long term vacancy7, the total employment land supply is

reduced to 16 parcels (30 net ha). When considering that servicing is required under the OP (See Section

2.0) and not all parcels currently have servicing available, only 8 parcels (12.7 net ha) remain. Once the

remaining parcels have been determined, the next step is to identify a reasonable supply available that

will actually be developed in the near-term based on recent development trends. Focusing on the recent

trends that demonstrate the desirability for large lots (See Section 5.0a.ii), and the City’s requirement for

servicing, only one (5.76 net ha) parcel is available. However, it should be noted that should servicing be

extended to a couple of the vacant, larger-lot parcels, an additional 9 net ha could be added to the

immediate supply.

Exhibit 31 summarizes the resulting scenario land needs, beginning in 2014, based on the density and

supply assumptions in the preceding two paragraphs. Comparison figures are also provided to the

baseline land needs that were introduced in Section 5.0c.

Exhibit 31: Total Land Need Accounting for Near Term Development

7 For a description of Long Term Vacancy, see Section 5.0a.ii


49

Similar to the total land needs shown in Exhibit 31, Exhibit 32 focuses on the serviced land needs alone.

Exhibit 32: Serviced Land Need Accounting for Near Term Development

Based on the above analysis (Exhibit 31 and Exhibit 32), the total supply may be completely exhausted

just before 2036, which is outside of the current Official Plan’s planning horizon. However, given the City’s

requirement for servicing availability and the recent trends confirming the desirability of large lot parcels, it

is likely that the supply may be exhausted prior to 2021, which is within the scope of the City’s Official

Plan, demonstrating a more urgent need to locate additional supply.

ii. Recent Density Trends Scenario

Recently, the City has experienced the trend for large-lot parcels in its Employment Areas, as

demonstrated in the preceding section. Furthermore, this need for large-lot parcels has also translated

into developments that have less employees working at a business that requires more land including, but

not limited to, transportation and warehousing operations. As a result, to understand how this may impact

supply over the long-term, this “Recent Density Trends” scenario examines the density of Brockville’s

post-recession developments within its employment areas by reviewing the total employment (jobs) and

combined area of any new or expanded businesses.


50

Based on the information received from the City, a total of six developments have occurred since the

2008/2009 recession including two new build projects and four expansions to existing facilities. Due to the

limited number of new build projects, which makes it difficult to determine “trends”, the Study Team

looked at businesses with multiple locations in both of the Business Parks and combined them (including

employees). This was undertaken based on the assumption that businesses would generally prefer to

consolidate their land holdings on a single site in Brockville wherever possible thereby improving

efficiency, land and transportation costs. By assuming this, it also allows for a more comprehensive

understanding of trends based on the actual land need required for existing and expanding businesses in

the City’s Employment Area. For example, Northern Cables expanded one of their facilities in the Broome

Business Park in 2010. For the purposes of completing the density calculation, and based on our

assumption that employers would generally prefer to consolidate their land holdings, all of Northern

Cables employees and the total land area of their operations in the business parks were included and

treated as though one site.

Upon performing the calculation, the results of this analysis reduced the average employment area from

the baseline density (See Section 5.0b) of just over 12 jobs per net ha, to approximately 10 jobs per net

ha. As a result, this lower density assumption increases land demand and the associated rate of land

absorption as more land is associated with each job (less people working at a business that requires

more land to operate). Exhibit 33 summarizes the resulting scenario land needs, beginning in 2014.

Comparison figures are also provided to the baseline land needs that were introduced in Section 5.0c.


51

Exhibit 33: Total Land Need Accounting for Emerging Density

Similar to the total land needs shown in Exhibit 33, Exhibit 34 focuses on the serviced land needs alone.


52

Exhibit 34: Serviced Land Need Accounting for Emerging Density

Based on the above analysis (Exhibit 33 and Exhibit 34), the total supply may be exhausted between

2031 and 2036 and the confirmed large lot supply before 2026, which as identified in the near-term

scenario, is outside of the current Official Plan’s planning horizon. However, given the City’s requirement

for servicing availability and the recent trends confirming the desirability of large lot parcels, it is likely that

the supply may be exhausted prior to 2021, which is within the scope of the City’s Official Plan,

demonstrating a more urgent need to locate additional supply.

iii. Summary

The baseline land needs projection provides an assessment of Brockville’s employment area resulting

from established trends. The results of this baseline land need analysis indicate that the total land supply

will be sufficient to accommodate demand to 2031.However, to understand how the City’s Employment

Area supply may be impacted by recent trends, two scenarios were developed: “Near Term Development”

and “Recent Density Trends”. As was stated within each scenario, there is a significant and urgent need

to phase in new, serviced, large-lot parcels into the available supply earlier than is contemplated in the

City’s Official Plan planning horizon of 2031. The results of this section clearly demonstrate that the need

to phase in new lands will be required prior to 2021 and as early as 2016.


53

6.0 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS

The key study conclusions resulting from our analysis are presented below. Our conclusions and

recommendations also address Brockville’s readiness to lever employment area investment and provide

policy recommendations to foster more sustainable economic growth and conditions.

a. Employment Land Needs

1. Brockville has sufficient aggregate supply to last throughout 2031 if historical trends

continue; however, large-lot opportunities are highly constrained.

If historic trends persist, the total supply is sufficient to 2031 and beyond, with large lots

exhausted before 2031. However, the total serviced supply will likely be consumed before 2026,

with large serviced lots exhausted as early as 2021.

2. Recent development activity appears to be increasing and associated densities appear to

be rapidly declining

The results of the scenario and sensitivity analysis indicate that the recent and rapid increase in

development / proposals may exceed recent historical trends. It is notable that of the 16 vacant

parcels available in the City’s Business Parks, 11 (69%) have already been purchased by

businesses. If sustained, this trend would significantly reduce the City’s aggregate supply, far

exceeding the baseline projection.

There is a significant risk that the large lot supply will be exhausted between 2021 and 2026, and

that the few remaining serviced large parcels will be exhausted as early as 2016.

3. The need to bring serviced, large-lot supply online is urgent

As the City is the primary employment area developer, as described in Section 3.0a., much of the

privately-owned supply is likely to be developed in the near-term. As a result, maintaining an

adequate supply of publicly-owned parcels becomes vital for the City to attract new businesses

and allow existing businesses to expand.

Only five of the more desirable large (>4 ha) lots remain vacant in the business parks and only

three of these are serviced. Of the three serviced large lots, only one remains in public ownership

and available for a new business to acquire. Of the remaining two unserviced large parcels, both

have already been purchased, implying that there is already intent to develop them as well.


54

Furthermore, the City’s economic development staff have reported that a number of investors that

had recently approached them have now located projects / operations in competing business

parks owing to a lack of suitable large-lot parcels in Brockville. This would indicate that the City is

already forgoing a significant degree of investment and potential economic benefit as a result of

constrained large-lot development opportunities.

4. Recent interest by companies requiring large lots vastly exceeds the magnitude of

historical norms

There has been recent interest by several businesses in establishing new land extensive

operations in the City, potentially accommodating several hundred employees. One specific

interest has been identified by a company that requires a significant amount of land to

accommodate a large distribution facility. To assist the City in understanding their ability to

accommodate these facilities, the City requested that the Study Team analyze and evaluate their

ability to accommodate a land extensive distribution or logistical operation, based on typical

industry standards for such facilities. As a result, the Study Team concluded that Brockville is

unable to accommodate an operation such as this within its existing designated employment land

supply. Therefore, the “Urban Reserve” lands in the North West Quadrant will be required to

accommodate land extensive facilities such as these.

It should be noted that the nature of these developments and the magnitude of their impact on the

City’s economic and land absorption patterns (both residential and non-residential), relative to

historic and recent trends, is substantial. Consequently, it is advisable that the City undertake an

economic impact study that would potentially influence the City’s overall residential and non-

residential land needs. This is particularly pertinent given the significant spin-off economic

benefits and land absorptions effects that such a development would trigger.

b. Strategic Direction

Based on the results of this ELR, the following actions are recommended for the City’s consideration:

1. Expedited Servicing of Remaining Designated Large Lots

One unserviced large parcel remains within the Broome Business Park that, if serviced, could

accommodate the development of low density, land extensive employment uses. It may be cost-

effective and strategically desirable to extend municipal services to this large lot as an interim

action until more large lot supply can be brought online. However, this option will require

technical evaluation with respect to cost-benefit as part of Item #2.


55

2. Planning Study for Future Employment Area / Urban Reserve Area in Northwest Quadrant

There are only two remaining areas that could accommodate large-lot employment area

development in the City including the Future Employment Area reserve and the Urban Reserve

Area in the northwest quadrant. Based on a preliminary review of both areas against the City’s

Official Plan and input received from the City, the most appropriate candidate is the northwest

quadrant given its ability to accommodate larger lots, ability to be easily serviced, its topography,

and its access to the necessary transportation infrastructure.

However, should the lands within the northwest quadrant be considered for future development,

additional planning studies will be required, in accordance with Sections 3.2.7, 4.10, and 6.4.1 of

the Official Plan. These would include an analysis to confirm feasibility of lands in the northwest

quadrant for this purpose, followed by a Secondary Plan process, which would include a phasing

and implementation program.

3. Economic Impact Study to Accommodate Proposed Land Extensive Developments

The City does not have designated employment lands available to accommodate proposed

developments that require large parcels of land. Should these projects advance, it is

recommended that the City undertake an Economic Impact Study that would:

a) Redefine the overall baseline residential and non-residential land needs in the City;

b) Identify the spin-off economic benefits; and

c) Redefine the City’s needs for community and neighbourhood services.


56

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CITY OF BROCKVILLEEMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW

JUNE 2015 | Final1415025-001

in association with Strategic Projections Inc.

APPENDIX A SPI EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION ASSUMPTIONS

SPI Economic Region (Sub-Provincial) Based Model Framework Introduction Most population projections at the economic region or community level are prepared using an age cohort model that ages people in place by one year each year, projects births by applying assumed rates of fertility by age of mother, projects deaths by applying assumed mortality rates by age and gender, and assumes an annual profile for net migration by age and gender that reflects past trends. In this framework the key driver of the economic region’s population growth is net migration. Missing from this straight forward and time tested framework, however, is a link between net migration and the economic potential of the economic region. Projecting net migration into the future at a rate that reflects the past is unrealistic given the major changes in industrial and consumer spending trends underway across the country and around the world. The SPI population projection framework amends the above framework in a significant way by turning net migration from an assumed variable into one that is determined by the economic region’s economic prospects and its availability of workers. Economic Activities at the Economic Region Level The economic activities occurring in an economic region can be divided into those that are export-based and those that are community-based. Export-based industries produce goods that are shipped to markets outside the economic region (agriculture, forestry, fishing and manufacturing), or they provide services to visitors and seasonal residents of the economic region (hotels, restaurants, recreation attractors, specialized hospitals, colleges and universities) or to businesses outside the economic region (specialized financial, professional, scientific and technical services). Community-based industries produce services that meet the needs primarily of the local residents in the economic region (retail, medical, education, personal services, etc.). Growth in an economic region will typically occur only if its export base is expanding. Expansion of the export-based industries drives the growth of the economic region at large. Without growth in an economic region’s export-based industries growth in its economic community-based activities is unlikely to occur. The export-based industries in an area as a group are often referred to as the economic base of the area. The terms export-based industries and economic-base industries can be used interchangeably as they refer to the same concept. The SPI Projection Framework The SPI projection framework explicitly recognizes the distinction between these two types of economic activities and establishes a link between total employment – the sum of both economic-base and community-base employment – and the number of people available for work in an economic region. In the SPI framework, if employment growth exceeds the number of workers available net migration increases to clear the labour market (reflecting the situation today in the Calgary and Golden Horseshoe areas where the population is growing rapidly due to significant net in-migration). In sharp contrast, if employment growth falls short of the number of workers available net migration turns negative in the SPI framework and workers leave to find jobs where they are more plentiful, thus again clearing the local labour market (reflecting the situation today in most rural areas of Canada where the population is declining).

SPI’s projections for an individual economic region’s prospects are prepared using this detailed economic and demographic framework following on a detailed evaluation of the economic region’s economic base and on an assessment of the prospects for growth of the region’s economic drivers. SPI prepares and routinely updates detailed economic projections at the national, provincial and metropolitan area level that can be readily used to assess the prospects for growth in individual communities throughout the country.

Schematic Diagram of the SPI Projection Framework

ExportDrivers

ExportBased

Employed

TotalEmployed

Populationby

Ageand

Gender

HeadshipRates

DwellingsRequired

FertilityRates

MortalityRates

Births

Deaths

Net NaturalPopulation

Growth

NetMigration

AvailableLabourForce

CommunityBased

EmployedLabourForce

Participationand

UtilizationRates

ECONOMICS DEMOGRAPHICS

The SPI framework handles the demographic projections of an economic region as do most forecasters, drawing on information regarding the population by age and gender in a base year and altering it in the future using assumed fertility and mortality rates (the right side of the schematic diagram above). The SPI framework, however, drives net migration by linking it to the economic region’s labour market requirements. This need is driven by the potential for the economic region to grow its economic base which, in turn, is determined by the potential for growth in its exportable goods and services (the left side of the schematic diagram above). The above framework underpins the Canada-wide base case projections we update on a regular basis and is used when required by clients to develop customized projections based on alternative assumptions.

For further information contact: Tom McCormack Strategic Projections Inc. 125 Wilson Street West, P5 Ancaster, Ontario L9G 0B3 Direct Phone Line: 1-888-774-9009 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Brockville Projections At the request of MMM Group Strategic Projections Inc. (SPI) has developed detailed population, dwelling and household projections from 2011 to 2041 for the Brockville Census Agglomeration (CA) and detailed employment projections for the City of Brockville. Methodology In developing these projections SPI used its community based projection system for the CA. This projection system:

Assesses the existing economic base of employment by place-of-work (EPOW) in the CA on an industry by industry basis

Grows the CA’s economic base jobs by place-of-work in the future at a pace relative to jobs Ontario-wide that reflects its relative pace of achievement in the past

Grows the CA’s population in the future at a pace that reflects the impacts on the local availability of workers of the current population’s aging in place and adds (via in-migration) or subtracts (via out-migration) to the population according to the pace of overall job development (I.e. labour requirements) expected in the area

Grows the City’s employment by place-of-work within the CA to reflect the dominant role it plays in providing jobs to residents not only of the City of Brockville but also to the residents of the two other municipalities within the CA, the Townships of Augusta and Elizabethtown-Kitley

A more detailed description of this system is attached. The Brockville Census Agglomeration The Brockville CA is located within Leeds and Grenville County to the east of the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) and to the south of the Ottawa CMA (Exhibit 1). The number of Brockville residents who worked in 2011 (18,415) slightly exceeded the number of jobs provided by employers within the CA (17,655) indicating that the CA is relatively self-contained, that only a small portion of its working residents commute to job centres outside the CA itself. Between 2001 and 2011 the total population of the CA changed very little (it was 39,050 in 2001 and 39,025 in 2011 though it was as higher at 39,670 in 2006). Over that same span total employment by place-of-work also changed very little (18,050 in 2001, 18,290 in 2006 and 17,655 in 2011). Within the CA Brockville accounts for the largest share both of the residents of the CA (56 percent in 2011) and of the jobs provided (83 percent). Exhibit 2 illustrates these relative distributions.

Exhibit 1 Map of the Brockville CA by Constituent Municipality

Source: Statistics Canada

Exhibit 2 Brockville CA by Constituent Municipality Population and Employment by Place-of-Work in 2011

Source: Statistics Canada, Census and National Household Survey 2011

21,870

9,724

7,430

14,585

2,210

860

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Brockville Elizabethtown Augusta

Population

Employment by Place-of-Work

The Economic Base of the Brockville Census Agglomeration Using location quotient analysis SPI has decomposed the jobs in the Brockville CA in 2011 into those that form part of its economic base (EB jobs) and those that serve the residents of the community (community base or CB jobs). This assessment in summarized in Exhibit 3. The first two data columns in Exhibit 3 show the number of people employed in Ontario and in the CA by industry in 2011. The next two data columns show the number employed in each area in each industry on a per-1,000 resident basis. The total number of jobs available in the CA per 1,000 residents – the activity rate – was 453 in the CA, higher than that of the average community across Ontario at 425. The fifth data column provides the location quotient (LQ) for each industry for the CA. Location quotients are indices that indicate the relative importance of each industry to the CA in terms of jobs per capita compared to the province as a whole. For example, the CA’s index of 163 for health care and social assistance means jobs in that industry are present 63 percent more often per capita in the CA than they are in the average community in Ontario. Location quotients exceeding 100 indicate which industries are, relatively speaking, the most important in the CA in providing jobs. Industries with indices exceeding 100 can be considered to be those underpinning the economic base of the CA, the industries providing for the economic wellbeing of its residents. Exhibit 3 Employment by Place-of-Work Ontario and the Brockville CA in 2011

Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey 2011 with calculations by SPI

In carrying out a location quotient assessment SPI assumes that the agriculture, mining and manufacturing industries are all economic base industries since most of their products are produced for people and businesses located outside the CA. For all other industries with an LQ greater than 100 SPI assigns the “excess” jobs to the economic base category.

Ontario CA Ontario CA LQ EB CB

Total population 13,263,544 38,940 ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

Total employed by place of work 5,632,230 17,655 425 453 5,569 12,086

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 87,820 520 7 13 202 520 0

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 23,855 0 2 0 0 0 0

Utilities 49,280 55 4 1 38 0 55

Construction 187,300 540 14 14 98 0 540

Manufacturing 630,365 2,965 48 76 160 2,965 0

Wholesale trade 266,170 915 20 23 117 134 781

Retail trade 672,275 2,550 51 65 129 576 1,974

Transportation and warehousing 221,110 530 17 14 82 0 530

Information and cultural industries 156,410 135 12 3 29 0 135

Finance and insurance 459,985 815 35 21 60 0 815

Professional, scientific and technical services 446,120 740 34 19 56 0 740

Other business services 212,930 845 16 22 135 220 625

Educational services 436,150 1,235 33 32 96 0 1,235

Health care and social assistance 626,900 2,995 47 77 163 1,155 1,840

Arts, entertainment and recreation 115,490 325 9 8 96 0 325

Accommodation and food services 359,900 940 27 24 89 0 940

Other services (except public administration) 254,975 560 19 14 75 0 560

Public administration 425,195 990 32 25 79 0 990

Jobs per 1,000 Jobs by TypeEmployment POW

So, for example, in the health care and social assistance industry – with an LQ of 163 – 39 percent of all the jobs in that industry (63 divided by 163 times 100) represent jobs exceeding the normal health care needs of an Ontario community and, therefore, they are jobs in that industry in the CA that are providing such services not only to Brockville CA residents but also to residents of other nearby Ontario communities (specialized health care services, for example, or simply basic services not available in those other communities). Using this approach the final two columns decompose all the jobs in the CA by industry in 2011 into their EB and CB components. This assessment reveals that in 2011 economic base jobs in the Brockville CA totaled 5,569 while community base jobs totaled 12,086. Thus economic base jobs in the area account for almost one-third of all the jobs in the CA (a relatively high share as economic base jobs typically account for 20 to 30 percent of all the jobs in most other Ontario communities). Accounting for the EB jobs are manufacturing (2,965 employed), health care and social services (1,155), retail trade (576 reflecting the area’s role as a tourism-regional shopping destination), agriculture (520), business services other than professional and scientific services (220) and wholesale trade (134 reflecting its growing role as a logistics centre). Population, Dwelling and Employment Projections for the Brockville CA Drawing on the above assessment of jobs in the area SPI used its community projection system to develop detailed population, dwelling and employment projections using the methodology described earlier:

Grow EB jobs locally at a pace relative to projections for Ontario reflecting the CA’s relative growth of the past

Grow the population in line with projected labour market requirements The detailed population, dwelling and employment projections for the CA are provided in the accompanying Excel file (Brockville Projections – 2015 – SPI). Exhibit 4 illustrates the projected future levels for the CA’s total population, population aged 15 and over, labour force source population (the population 15 and over less those living in institutions or on reserves), the labour force, and employment both by place-of-residence and place-of-work. The population of the area will grow at a rate faster than its labour force and employment due to the fact that over the 2011 to 2031 span most Baby Boomers will retire. As they do they will need to be replaced in the labour market resulting in the in-migration of young people (20 to 40) to take those jobs (which means population growth). Most of the Baby Boomers will retire in the area so out-migration of that group will be minimal. Hence the population will grow faster than the labour market base. This phenomenon will occur throughout all communities in Ontario and the rest of Canada. Employment Projections for the City of Brockville Employment projections by place-of-work by industry were developed for the City of Brockville assuming that the City will retain its dominant position within the CA regarding the provision of jobs. The employment projections by industry for the City are summarized in Exhibit 5 and are provided in detail in the accompanying Excel file (Brockville Projections – 2015 – SPI).

Exhibit 4 Brockville CA Key Variable Projections Summary Actual Data 2006 to 2011 and Projections from 2012 to 2041

Source: Statistics Canada and SPI

Exhibit 5 City of Brockville Employment by Place-of-Work Projections Actual Data 2001, 2006 and 2011, 2016 to 2041

Source: Statistics Canada and SPI

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Population

Population 15+

LF Source Population

Labour Force

Employed (POR)

Employed (POW)

Change

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 01-11 11-21 21-31 31-41 11-41

Total population 21,375 21,957 21,870 22,842 23,871 24,824 25,648 26,131 26,159 495 2,001 1,777 511 4,289

Activity rate (jobs per 1,000 residents) 646 639 667 656 654 638 623 614 613

Total employment 13,805 14,020 14,585 14,992 15,619 15,846 15,988 16,054 16,036 780 1,034 369 48 1,451

Agriculture, other primary 25 45 60 48 39 31 25 20 16 35 -21 -14 -9 -44

Mining, oil and gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Utilities 70 60 20 21 22 23 24 24 25 -50 2 2 1 5

Construction 300 315 325 368 443 502 563 625 686 25 118 120 123 361

Manufacturing 3,605 2,700 2,550 2,348 2,147 1,964 1,788 1,620 1,462 -1,055 -403 -359 -326 -1,088

Wholesale trade 415 650 710 727 767 779 783 780 769 295 57 16 -14 59

Retail trade 2,075 2,010 2,430 2,469 2,522 2,492 2,436 2,360 2,264 355 92 -85 -172 -166

Transportation, warehousing 410 480 460 481 507 518 525 529 528 50 47 18 4 68

Information, culture 290 235 135 116 110 103 95 86 78 -155 -25 -16 -17 -57

Finance, insurance 580 640 730 763 803 817 823 822 815 150 73 20 -8 85

Professional, scientific, technical services 570 395 590 648 762 845 927 1,006 1,081 20 172 165 154 491

Other business services 555 1,060 740 857 984 1,073 1,158 1,239 1,312 185 244 175 154 572

Education 875 1,005 1,135 1,261 1,352 1,403 1,446 1,480 1,504 260 217 94 58 369

Health, social services 1,635 1,915 2,260 2,371 2,527 2,611 2,677 2,727 2,758 625 267 150 81 498

Arts, entertainment, recreation 90 215 285 267 277 281 283 284 283 195 -8 6 0 -2

Accommodation, food 1,210 1,065 900 1,030 1,118 1,173 1,223 1,267 1,304 -310 218 106 81 404

Other services 520 635 450 443 441 428 411 392 371 -70 -9 -30 -40 -79

Government 580 595 805 775 800 804 801 793 780 225 -5 1 -22 -25

Employed by Place-of-Work Totals Ten Year Change