apollo tyres result updated

7/31/2019 Apollo Tyres Result Updated

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E March - Consolidated (` cr) 4QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) Angel est. % diff.Net sales 3,231 2,730 18.4 3,344 (3.4)EBITDA 360 308 16.9 348 3.6

EBITDA margin (%) 11.1 11.3 (15)bp 10.4 75bp

Adjusted PAT 157 193 (18.6) 146 7.2Source: Company, Angel Research

Mixed performance on the consolidated front: Apollo Tyres (APTY) reported amixed set of 4QFY2012 results, as strong performance in domestic operations

was overshadowed by poor South African operations. APTYs consolidated top

line jumped by 18.4% yoy (flat qoq) to `3,231cr, driven by 8.8% yoy growth each

in total volumes and net average realization. While domestic operations witnessedstrong 14% yoy growth in volumes, Europe witnessed 4% yoy volume growth and

South Africa witnessed an 18% yoy decline in volumes as its operations were

impacted by planned shutdowns and rising threat of imported tyres. The

companys EBITDA margin expanded by 110bp sequentially (down 15bp yoy) to

11.1%, mainly due to margin improvement in the domestic business (EBITDA

margin improved 200bp yoy and 160bp sequentially) led by lower

raw-material expenses. Net profit declined by 18.6% yoy to `157cr mainly on

account of higher interest (up 31.5%) and depreciation (up 22.1%) expenses.

Healthy standalone performance: APTYs standalone net sales grew by strong28.2% yoy (7.9% qoq) to `2,259cr, driven by volume growth of 14% yoy (6.5%

qoq) and net average realization growth of 12.5% yoy (1.3% qoq). EBITDA

margin expanded by 200bp yoy (160bp qoq) to 9.6%, largely due to a decline in

raw-material expenses, leading to 61.9% yoy growth in operating profit. However,

net profit grew by just 9.2% yoy to `72cr, led by higher interest, depreciation and

tax expenses during the quarter.

Outlook and valuation: We revise upwards our earnings estimates forFY2013/14E at the standalone level, led by the likely improvement in OEM

demand as well as replacement segments and stable raw-material prices.

We expect APTY to deliver a healthy revenue CAGR of 11.8% over FY201214E,

led by production ramp-up at Chennai facility and revival in South Africa

operations. We expect the companys operating margin to improve in FY2013E,

driven by gradual softening of raw-material prices. At `82, APTY is trading at

attractive levels of 6.1x FY2014E earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on thestock with a target price of `100.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014ENet sales 8,868 12,153 13,699 15,184% chg 9.2 37.1 12.7 10.8

Net profit 440 439 610 671% chg (32.6) (0.2) 38.8 10.1

EBITDA margin (%) 10.9 9.6 10.5 10.1

EPS (`) 8.7 8.7 12.1 13.3P/E (x) 9.4 9.3 6.8 6.1

P/BV (x) 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0

RoE (%) 20.1 16.8 19.7 18.4

RoCE (%) 15.2 15.4 18.7 18.7

EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 5.6 4.4 3.9

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP `82

Target Price `100

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 46.9

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 20.0

FII / NRIs / OCBs 23.3

Indian Public / Others 9.8

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (7.5) (11.3) 38.3

Apollo Tyres 8.3 13.8 205.2

APTY@IN

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Tyre

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

16,420

4,966

APLO.BO

4,123

1.1

95/51

411,032

1

Yaresh Kothari022-3935 7800 Ext: [email protected]

Apollo TyresPerformance Highlights

4QFY2012 Result Update | Tyre

May 10, 2012


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Apollo Tyres | 4QFY2012 Result Update

2May 10, 2012

Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY12 4QFY11 % chg FY2012 FY2011 % chgNet sales 2,259 1,762 28.2 8,158 5,490 48.6Consumption of RM 1,635 1,279 27.9 5,997 3,712 61.5(% of sales) 72.4 72.6 73.5 67.6

Staff costs 95 75 26.8 369 307 20.1

(% of sales) 4.2 4.2 4.5 5.6

Purchases of TG 53 48 11.7 238 159 49.5

(% of sales) 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.9

Other expenses 259 227 14.4 888 791 12.3

(% of sales) 11.5 12.9 10.9 14.4

Total expenditure 2,042 1,628 25.5 7,492 4,969 50.8EBITDA 217 134 61.9 666 521 27.8EBITDA margin (%) 9.6 7.6 8.2 9.5

Interest 75 53 40 241 159 51.8

Depreciation 52 39 34 186 147 26.0

Other Income 16 39 (60.0) 18 49 (62.5)

PBT (excl. extr. Items) 106 81 30.8 258 264 (2.3)Exceptional items - - - - - -

PBT (incl. extr. Items) 106 81 30.8 258 264 (2.3)(% of sales) 4.7 4.6 3.2 4.8

Provision for taxation 33 14 129.9 76 65 16.7

(% of PBT) 31.5 17.9 29.6 24.8

Reported PAT 72 66 9.2 181 198 (8.5)PATM (%) 3.2 3.8 2.2 3.6

Equity capital (cr) 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4

EPS (`) 1.4 1.3 9.2 3.6 3.9 (8.5)Source: Company, Angel Research

Net sales up 28.2% yoy on a 14% yoy increase in volumes: On a standalone basis,APTY registered strong top-line growth of 28.2% yoy (7.9% qoq) to `2,259cr,

backed by a strong 14% yoy increase each in volumes and net average realization,

respectively. Volume growth was led by strong OEM demand during the quarter

due to which proportion of OEM sales increased to ~34%.


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4May 10, 2012

Standalone net profit up 9.2% yoy: Net profit for the quarter witnessed modest9.2% yoy (69.7% qoq) growth to `72cr despite strong growth in operating profit.

This can be attributed to higher interest (up 40.2% yoy) and depreciation expense

(up 34.4% yoy), led by ramping up of Chennai facility. Further, lower other income(down yoy) and high tax rate (31.5% in 4QFY2012) restricted the companys

profitability during the quarter.

Exhibit 6:Net profit up 9.2% yoy

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Standalone performance

8.8

3.63.2

3.8 3.8

2.31.2 2.0

3.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.04.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

(%)(`cr) Net profit Net profit margin (RHS)


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5May 10, 2012

Exhibit 7:Quarterly performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY12 4QFY11 % chg FY2012 FY2011 % chgNet sales 3,231 2,730 18.4 12,153 8,868 37.1Consumption of RM 1,891 1,612 17.3 7,379 4,841 52.4(% of sales) 58.5 59.1 60.7 54.6

Staff costs 302 229 32.0 1,335 1,134 17.7

(% of sales) 9.4 8.4 11.0 12.8

Purchases of TG 202 149 35.4 658 481 36.7

(% of sales) 6.2 5.5 5.4 5.4

Other expenses 476 431 10.4 1,615 1,446 11.7

(% of Sales) 14.7 15.8 13.3 16.3

Total expenditure 2,871 2,421 18.6 10,987 7,903 39.0EBITDA 360 308 16.9 1,166 965 20.8EBITDA margin (%) 11.1 11.3 9.6 10.9

Interest 87 66 31.5 287 197 45.9Depreciation 90 74 22.1 326 272 19.7

Other Income 26 42 (37.2) 33 51 (35.9)

PBT (excl. extr. items) 210 210 (0.3) 586 547 7.1Exceptional Items - - 29 -

PBT (incl. extr. items) 210 210 (0.3) 556 547 1.7(% of sales) 6.5 7.7 4.6 6.2

Provision for taxation 51.5 18 191.3 144.4 106.3 35.8

(% of PBT) 24.6 8.4 25.9 19.4

Share in loss/(profit) of associates 1 (0) 2 1

Minority interest (0) 0 (0) (0)

Reported PAT 157 193 (18.6) 410 440 (6.9)Adjusted PAT 157 193 (18.6) 439 440 (0.2)PATM (%) 4.9 7.1 3.6 5.0

Equity capital 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4

Reported EPS (`) 3.1 3.8 (18.7) 8.1 8.7 (6.9)Adjusted EPS (`) 3.1 3.8 (18.7) 8.7 8.7 (0.2)


Consolidated performance: For 4QFY2012, APTY registered strong net salesgrowth of 18.4% yoy (flat qoq) to `3,231cr, driven by 8.8% yoy growth each in

total volumes and net average realization. Indian operations were the prime

growth driver, with total sales increasing by 28.2% yoy, driven by 14% growth eachin volumes and net average realization. While European operations witnessed

slightly lower-than-expected growth of 8.7% yoy, poor performance in South Africa

impacted the overall performance. South Africa operations witnessed an 18% yoy

decline in volumes, led by poor demand, higher imports and on account of plant

shutdown due to national as well as company-specific issues.

On the operating front, the companys margin expanded by 110bp sequentially

(flat on yoy basis) to 11.1%, mainly due to margin improvement in the domestic

business (EBITDA margin improved by 200bp yoy and 160bp sequentially), led by

a decline in raw-material expenses. However, weak performance in South Africa

nullified the positive impact of strong domestic performance. While South Africaoperations reported operating loss largely due to a decline in volumes, Europe

operations witnessed a 200bp margin contraction sequentially during the quarter.

Net profit declined by 18.6% yoy to `157cr mainly on account of higher interest


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6May 10, 2012

(up 31.5%) and depreciation (up 22.1%) expense and lower other income (down

37%). Further, higher tax rate (24.6% as against 8.4% in 4QFY2011) impacted the

companys bottom line negatively.

Exhibit 8:Segmental performance

4QFY12 4QFY11 % chg FY2012 FY2011 % chgRevenue (` cr)India 2,259 1,762 28.2 8,158 5,490 48.6

South Africa 339 354 (4.1) 1,305 1,183 10.3

Europe 677 623 8.7 2,850 2,234 27.5

Others 29 - - 105 - -

EBIT (` cr)India 180.4 134.1 34.6 498.8 422.5 18.1South Africa (11.2) 25.1 (144.5) (43.3) 32.5 (233.4)

Europe 119.0 116.5 2.2 386.4 299.2 29.1

Others 5.4 (1.2) (559.9) 1.4 (3.0) (146.9)

EBIT margin (%)India 8.0 7.6 6.1 7.7

SA (3.3) 7.1 (3.3) 2.7

Europe 17.6 18.7 13.6 13.4


Conference call Key highlights

Management expects standalone business momentum (expects growth of

~20% in FY2013E) to continue, led by double-digit growth expected in the

truck segment, while passenger cars is likely to witness high single-digit

growth. South Africa is expected to grow on the back of growth in the cars and

truck segments. Demand in Europe is likely to remain weak in FY2013.

Overall, management expects the companys consolidated top line to grow by

~15% in FY2013E.

Management expects raw-material prices to remain stable in FY2013.

However, adverse forex movement remains a major concern as two-thirds of

total raw material is imported.

APTY took an average price increase of ~1% in the domestic truck segment in

May 2012. In South Africa, the company increased prices by ~3% each in

February and April 2012.

Ramp-up at Chennai facility is on track. Current production is at 300MT/day

and is expected to reach 450MT/day by 3QFY2012.

APTY does not intend to incur any major capex in FY2013, except for

maintenance capex, which will be around `300cr. Of this, around

`100cr-120cr will be for Indian operations and rest for overseas.

On a consolidated basis, net debt stood at `2,700cr as of March 2012

(`2,900cr as of December 2011).

According to management, radialization levels in the TBR segment increased

to ~17% in FY2012.


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7May 10, 2012

Investment arguments Tyre industry set for a structural shift: Currently, manufacturing radial tyres is

far more capital intensive than manufacturing cross-ply tyres. Investment

required for radial tyres per tpd is 3.2x that of cross-ply tyres at `6.1cr/tpd.

On the other hand, the selling price of radial tyres is ~20% higher than that of

cross-ply tyres. Thus, to generate similar RoCE and RoE, tyre companies would

need to earn EBITDA margin of ~21% compared to ~9% earned on

cross-ply tyres, considering the difference in capital requirements and the

consequent impact on asset turnover, interest cost and depreciation.

Therefore, higher capital requirements will help protect margins from

upward-bound input costs, as the business model evolves bearing in mind

final RoEs rather than margins. With the sector set for a structural shift and the

apparent pricing flexibility, RoCE and RoE of tyre manufacturers are expected

to improve going forward.

Riding on high domestic demand: The Indian tyre industry is witnessing strongdemand from the replacement as well as OEM markets, keeping capacities

running at peak. APTY is poised to achieve market leadership on the back of

increasing production from 820tpd in FY2010 to ~1,300tpd in 1HFY2013E.

Strategic overseas investment offers synergies in the long term: Acquisitionsdone by the company in the past two-three years are increasingly contributing

to its revenue. We estimate Vredestein Banden combined with Dunlop SA to

contribute close to 35% to the companys overall consolidated revenue,

helping it to further strengthen its foothold in the Indian tyre industry.Acquisitions offer synergies by way of access to radial tyre technology, wider

product portfolio and presence in newer geographies.

Outlook and valuation

We revise upwards our earnings estimates for FY2013/14E at the standalone level,

driven by the likely improvement in demand in the OEM as well replacement

segments and stable raw-material prices.

Exhibit 9: Change in estimates

Y/E March (` cr) Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates % chgFY2013E FY2014E FY2013E FY2014E FY2013E FY2014E

Net sales 13,580 15,007 13,699 15,184 0.9 1.2OPM (%) 10.1 10.2 10.5 10.1 41bp (0)bp

EPS (`) 10.5 12.5 12.1 13.3 14.8 6.5Source: Company, Angel Research

We remain positive on the tyre industry in view of the structural shift that the

industry is witnessing and due to softening raw-material prices, mainly natural

rubber. We expect the company to deliver a healthy revenue CAGR of 11.8% over

FY201214E, led by production ramp-up at Chennai facility and revival in South

Africa operations. We expect the companys operating margin to improve in

FY2013E, driven by gradual softening of raw-material prices.


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8May 10, 2012

At `82, APTY is trading at attractive levels of 6.1x FY2014E earnings. We maintainour Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `100.Key downside risks to our call: A sharp rise in input costs from current levels,slower growth in international business and lower-than-anticipated domestic

replacement demand pose downside risks to our estimates.

Exhibit 10: Angel vs. consensus forecastAngel estimates Consensus Variation (%)

FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14ENet sales (` cr) 13,699 15,184 13,669 14,888 0.2 2.0EPS (`) 12.1 13.3 11.0 12.6 10.2 5.7

ource: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: One-year forward P/E band

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: One-year forward P/E chart


Exhibit 13: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band


Exhibit 14: One-year forward EV/EBITDA chart


0

20

40

60

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120

140

160

Apr-0

3

Jan-0

4

Oct-0

4

Jul-0

5

Apr-0

6

Jan-0

7

Oct-0

7

Jul-0

8

Apr-0

9

Jan-1

0

Oct-1

0

Jul-1

1

Apr-1

2

(`) Share Price (`) 2x 5x 8x 11x

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

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5

Mar

-06

Oct-06

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-07

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-08

Aug

-08

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-09

Nov

-09

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-10

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-11

Sep-1

1

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-12

(x) One-yr forward P/E Five-yr average P/E

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Apr-03

Dec-0

3

Aug-0

4

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6

Sep-0

6

Jun-0

7

Feb-0

8

Oct-08

Jul-09

Mar-10

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0

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Apr-12

(`cr) EV (`cr) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

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8.0

Jul-05

Mar-06

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Jun-0

7

Jan-0

8

Aug-0

8

Apr-09

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9

Jun-1

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1

Sep-1

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Apr-12

(x) One-yr forward EV/EBITDA Five-yr average EV/EBITDA


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9May 10, 2012

Exhibit 15: Tyre - Recommendation summary

Company Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%)P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY11-13E EPS

FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E CAGR (%)Apollo Tyres* Buy 82 100 22.1 6.8 6.1 4.4 3.9 19.7 18.4 15.1Ceat Buy 97 164 68.5 2.5 2.4 3.6 3.5 18.8 16.5 84.7

JK Tyre* Buy 76 113 48.3 3.1 2.4 5.2 4.9 11.4 13.2 26.1

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Consolidated


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10May 10, 2012

Profit and Loss Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14ETotal operating income 4,995 8,121 8,868 12,153 13,699 15,184% chg 6.4 62.6 9.2 37.1 12.7 10.8Total Expenditure 4,573 6,936 7,903 10,987 12,263 13,643Net Raw Materials 3,411 4,581 5,322 8,037 8,756 9,726

Other Mfg costs 337 539 648 546 630 720

Personnel 415 1,088 1,134 1,335 1,644 1,828

Other 410 727 798 1,069 1,233 1,370

EBITDA 422 1,185 965 1,166 1,436 1,541% chg (29.3) 180.7 (18.6) 20.8 23.1 7.3

(% of Net Sales) 8.5 14.6 10.9 9.6 10.5 10.1

Depreciation & Amort. 129 254 272 326 342 363

EBIT 294 931 693 840 1,094 1,178% chg (37.2) 216.9 (25.5) 21.3 30.1 7.7

(% of Net Sales) 5.9 11.5 7.8 6.9 8.0 7.8

Interest & other charges 112 134 197 287 258 258

Other Income 31 117 51 33 36 39

(% of PBT) 14.7 13.7 9.3 5.9 4.1 4.1

Recurring PBT 213 914 547 586 871 959% chg (47.3) 328.3 (40.1) 7.1 48.7 10.1

Extraordinary Items (1) 59 - 29 - -

PBT 214 855 547 556 871 959Tax 74 261 106 144 261 288

(% of PBT) 34.7 30.5 19.4 25.9 30.0 30.0

PAT (reported) 140 594 440 410 610 671Adj. PAT 139 653 440 439 610 671% chg (48.4) 369.5 (32.6) (0.2) 38.8 10.1

(% of Net Sales) 2.8 8.0 5.0 3.6 4.5 4.4

Basic EPS (`) 2.8 11.8 8.7 8.1 12.1 13.3Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 2.8 13.0 8.7 8.7 12.1 13.3% chg (50.0) 369.5 (32.6) (0.2) 38.8 10.1


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11May 10, 2012

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 50 50 50 50 50 50Reserves & Surplus 1,299 1,917 2,362 2,774 3,301 3,890

Shareholders Funds 1,350 1,968 2,413 2,825 3,352 3,940Minority Interest - - 1 1 1 1

Total Loans 891 1,707 2,480 2,550 2,350 2,350

Deferred Tax Liability 194 251 316 316 316 316

Total Liabilities 2,435 3,926 5,210 5,691 6,018 6,607APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 2,284 5,563 6,903 7,624 7,964 8,436

Less: Acc. Depreciation 882 3,120 3,501 3,826 4,169 4,531

Net Block 1,402 2,443 3,403 3,798 3,796 3,904Capital Work-in-Progress 281 536 503 557 581 616

Goodwill 24 118 117 117 117 117

Investments 5 6 11 17 21 26Current Assets 1,423 2,439 3,290 3,901 4,331 5,020

Cash 362 349 191 173 130 363

Loans & Advances 206 310 395 583 658 729

Other 855 1,780 2,704 3,144 3,544 3,929

Current liabilities 700 1,614 2,113 2,697 2,828 3,075

Net Current Assets 723 824 1,177 1,204 1,504 1,945Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 2,435 3,926 5,210 5,691 6,018 6,607


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12May 10, 2012

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14EProfit before tax 213 914 547 586 871 959

Depreciation 129 254 272 326 342 363Change in Working Capital 32 (115) (510) (45) (343) (208)

Less: Others 212 637 263 - - -

Other income (31) (117) (51) (33) (36) (39)

Direct taxes paid (74) (261) (106) (144) (261) (288)

Cash Flow from Operations 480 1,312 415 689 573 787(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (517) (3,533) (1,307) (774) (365) (506)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments 0 (1) (5) (6) (4) (5)

Other income 31 117 51 33 36 39

Cash Flow from Investing (485) (3,417) (1,262) (747) (334) (471)Issue of Equity 46 - - - -- -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 245 816 773 70 (200) -

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 27 44 29 29 83 83

Others (234) 1,231 (114) - - -

Cash Flow from Financing 83 2,091 689 40 (283) (83)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 77 (13) (158) (18) (43) 233

Opening Cash balance 285 362 349 191 173 130Closing Cash balance 362 349 191 173 130 363


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Disclosure of Interest Statement Apollo Tyres

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies

referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and

risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

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The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliablesources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as thisdocument is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any wayresponsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report .Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. WhileAngel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

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apollo tyres result updated

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