annual meeting presentation 06.17.16

By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.

June 17th, 2016

The Economist Who Loved Me

On Behalf of

Susquehanna Workforce Network, Inc. Annual Meeting 2016

The World is Not (Growing) Enough

*1999: Pierce Brosnan; Sophie Marceau

BrazilMexico

Latin America & the CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan

India (1)China

Emerging & developing AsiaRussia

Emerging & developing EuropeSub-Saharan Africa

Emerging market & developing economiesUnited States

AustraliaCanada

United KingdomJapanSpain

ItalyGermany

FranceEuro area

Advanced economies

-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%-3.8%

2.4%-0.5%

3.1%7.5%

6.5%6.4%

-1.8%3.5%

3.0%4.1%

2.4%2.5%

1.5%1.9%

0.5%2.6%

1.0%1.5%

1.1%1.5%1.9%

Annual % Change

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2016 Projected

Notes: 1. For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with fiscal year 2011/12 as a base year. 2. For World Output, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 90 percent of annual world output at purchasing-power-parity weights. For Emerging Market and Developing Economies, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of annual emerging market and developing economies’ output at purchasing-power-parity weights.

2016 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.2%Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2016.

May-01Jan

-02

Sep-0

2

May-03Jan

-04

Sep-0

4

May-05Jan

-06

Sep-0

6

May-07Jan

-08

Sep-0

8

May-09Jan

-10

Sep-1

0

May-11Jan

-12

Sep-1

2

May-13

Jan-14

Sep-1

4

May-15Jan

-16$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$/B

arre

l

May 2016:$46.79 /Bar-

rel

NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. DollarsMay 2001 through May 2016

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

World Oil Demand Growth2007Q1 through 2016Q1*

Source: The World Bank; International Energy Agency

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0 Other Non-OECDOECDChina

mb/

d, g

row

th y

ear

over

yea

r

*2016Q1 is an estimate

Moneypenny—Metal Price IndicesMay 2007 through May 2016

Source: The World Bank

US$ NominalBase metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.

May-07

Jan-08

Sep-08

May-09

Jan-10

Sep-10

May-11

Jan-12

Sep-12

May-13

Jan-14

Sep-14

May-15

Jan-16

25

45

65

85

105

125

145

165

Base Metals

Iron Ore

Precious Metals

2010

=10

0

Source: Quandl.com

Baltic Dry IndexJune 2009 through June 2016

Jun-09

Oct-09

Feb-10

Jun-10

Oct-10

Feb-11

Jun-11

Oct-11

Feb-12

Jun-12

Oct-12

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000

June 10th 610

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.

Quantum of Solace

*2008: Daniel Craig; Olga Kurylenko

1990Q1 1993Q1 1996Q1 1999Q1 2002Q1 2005Q1 2008Q1 2011Q1 2014Q1-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Perc

ent

Cha

nge

from

Pre

cedi

ng P

erio

d (S

AAR

)

2016Q1: +0.8%

Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2016Q1*

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis * 2nd Estimate

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2015Q2 – 2016Q1*

Personal Consumption

Government Spending

Net Exports Gross Invest-ment

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.02.4

0.50.2

0.9

2.0

0.3

-0.3 -0.1

1.7

0.0

-0.1 -0.2

1.29

0.20

-0.21-0.45

Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15

SAA

R (

%)

GDP0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

3.9

2.0

1.4

0.8

Perc

ent

Cha

nge

from

Pre

cedi

ng P

erio

d (S

AAR

)

2016Q1: +0.8%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis * 2nd Estimate

May-02

Jan-03

Sep-0

3

May-04

Jan-05

Sep-0

5

May-06

Jan-07

Sep-0

7

May-08

Jan-09

Sep-0

9

May-10

Jan-11

Sep-1

1

May-12

Jan-13

Sep-1

3

May-14

Jan-15

Sep-1

5

May-16

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Thou

sand

s

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

May 2016: +38K

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSMay 2002 through May 2016

National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorMay 2015 v. May 2016

Mining and Logging

Manufacturing

Information

Other Services

Government

Financial Activities

Construction

Leisure and Hospitality

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Professional and Business Services

Education and Health Services

-300 -100 100 300 500 700 900

-129

-39

4

63

101

157

219

394

425

525

678Chart Title

Thousands, SA

All told 2,398K Jobs gained


Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)April 2015 v. April 2016Absolute Change

Information

Government

Manufacturing


Other Services




Mining, Logging, and Construction


-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

-1,000

-700

2,000

3,000

3,300

6,300

8,900

9,100

10,500

14,500

MD Total: +55.9K; +2.1%US Total (SA): +2,633K; +1.9%


*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD added 53,266 jobs between April 2015 and April 2016.

Government

Information


Other Services

Manufacturing






-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

-2,100

200

400

1,200

1,600

2,100

3,300

3,800

7,200

12,500Chart Title

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)April 2015 v. April 2016Absolute Change

Baltimore MSA Total: +30.2K; +2.2%MD Total (SA): +55.9K; +2.1%US Total (SA): +2,633K; +1.9%


Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

-2,500

-1,500

-500

500

1,500

2,500

12-M

onth

Net

Cha

nge


Cecil County EmploymentApril 2002 – April 2016 (NSA)

April 2015 v. April 2016: +1,341; +2.7%

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

12-M

onth

Net

Cha

nge

April 2015 v. April 2016:

+1,791; +1.4%


Harford County EmploymentApril 2002 – April 2016 (NSA)

Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) April 2015 v. April 2016 Percent Change

RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 IDAHO 3.8 17 MARYLAND 2.1 32 MONTANA 1.32 DELAWARE 3.7 17 MASSACHUSETTS 2.1 32 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.33 OREGON 3.5 20 HAWAII 2.0 32 OHIO 1.34 UTAH 3.4 21 KENTUCKY 1.9 38 CONNECTICUT 1.25 GEORGIA 3.3 21 VERMONT 1.9 39 ILLINOIS 1.15 WASHINGTON 3.3 23 INDIANA 1.6 39 RHODE ISLAND 1.17 FLORIDA 3.2 23 NEW JERSEY 1.6 41 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.08 ARIZONA 3.1 23 TEXAS 1.6 42 PENNSYLVANIA 0.99 TENNESSEE 2.9 26 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.5 43 MAINE 0.5

10 CALIFORNIA 2.8 26 NEBRASKA 1.5 44 NEW MEXICO 0.211 COLORADO 2.7 26 WISCONSIN 1.5 45 KANSAS 0.011 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.7 29 MINNESOTA 1.4 46 OKLAHOMA -0.113 NEVADA 2.6 29 MISSISSIPPI 1.4 47 LOUISIANA -0.614 MICHIGAN 2.5 29 NEW YORK 1.4 47 WEST VIRGINIA -0.615 NORTH CAROLINA 2.3 32 ALABAMA 1.3 49 ALASKA -1.016 VIRGINIA 2.2 32 IOWA 1.3 50 WYOMING -3.717 ARKANSAS 2.1 32 MISSOURI 1.3 51 NORTH DAKOTA -3.8


U.S. Year-over-year Percent ChangeApril: +1.9%May: +1.7%

Source: Moody’s Economy

Recession Watchas of March 2016

U.S. Unemployment Rate April: 5.0%May: 4.7%

Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) April 2016


RANK STATE % RAN

K STATE % RANK STATE %

1 SOUTH DAKOTA 2.5 16 MONTANA 4.2 32 RHODE ISLAND 5.32 NEW HAMPSHIRE 2.6 19 MISSOURI 4.3 36 NORTH CAROLINA 5.43 NEBRASKA 3.0 19 TENNESSEE 4.3 37 ARIZONA 5.54 COLORADO 3.1 21 TEXAS 4.4 37 GEORGIA 5.55 HAWAII 3.2 21 WISCONSIN 4.4 37 WYOMING 5.55 NORTH DAKOTA 3.2 23 OKLAHOMA 4.5 40 CONNECTICUT 5.75 VERMONT 3.2 23 OREGON 4.5 41 NEVADA 5.88 MAINE 3.4 25 MARYLAND 4.6 41 SOUTH CAROLINA 5.89 IDAHO 3.7 26 NEW JERSEY 4.7 41 WASHINGTON 5.89 UTAH 3.7 27 FLORIDA 4.8 44 MISSISSIPPI 6.011 KANSAS 3.8 27 MICHIGAN 4.8 45 ALABAMA 6.111 MINNESOTA 3.8 29 NEW YORK 4.9 46 NEW MEXICO 6.213 ARKANSAS 3.9 30 INDIANA 5.2 47 LOUISIANA 6.313 IOWA 3.9 30 OHIO 5.2 48 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 6.413 VIRGINIA 3.9 32 CALIFORNIA 5.3 48 WEST VIRGINIA 6.416 DELAWARE 4.2 32 KENTUCKY 5.3 50 ALASKA 6.616 MASSACHUSETTS 4.2 32 PENNSYLVANIA 5.3 50 ILLINOIS 6.6

Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)April 2016


Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.4 7 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5

2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.5 7 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical

Area (1) 4.5

2 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 3.5 13 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan

Statistical Area 4.6

2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.5 14 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan

Statistical Area 4.7

5 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.7 15 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.8

6 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.3 15 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX


7 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 15 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL


7 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 18 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-

MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.9

7 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 19 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA


7 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 20 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI


1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

MD County Unemployment RatesApril 2016


Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR1 Howard County 3.2 13 Prince George's County 4.52 Montgomery County 3.3 14 Baltimore County 4.73 Carroll County 3.5 14 Caroline County 4.74 Anne Arundel County 3.7 16 Cecil County 5.04 Frederick County 3.7 16 Washington County 5.04 Queen Anne's County 3.7 18 Garrett County 5.77 Calvert County 3.8 19 Wicomico County 6.08 Talbot County 4.0 20 Allegany County 6.39 St. Mary's County 4.1 21 Dorchester County 6.6

10 Harford County 4.2 21 Baltimore City 6.611 Charles County 4.3 23 Somerset County 7.011 Kent County 4.3 24 Worcester County 9.4

Harford County Unemployment RateApril 2002 – April 2016 (NSA)

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Rat

e

April 2016: 4.2%


Cecil County Unemployment RateApril 2002 – April 2016 (NSA)

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

0123456789

1011

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Rat

e

April 2016: 5.0%


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-1525 Year

Compositional Change

Mining and Logging 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% -0.1%

Construction 5.0% 4.5% 5.2% 5.3% 4.3% 4.5% -0.4%

Manufacturing 16.3% 14.8% 13.2% 10.7% 8.8% 8.8% -7.5%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

20.8% 20.3% 19.9% 19.4% 18.9% 19.0% -1.8%

Information 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% -0.5%

Financial Activities 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 6.1% 6.0% 5.7% -0.3%Professional and Business Services 9.9% 10.8% 12.5% 12.5% 12.7% 13.8% 3.9%Education and Health Services 9.9% 11.3% 11.5% 13.2% 15.3% 15.5% 5.6%Leisure and Hospitality 8.5% 8.9% 8.9% 9.5% 10.0% 10.6% 2.1%

Other Services 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1%

Government 16.6% 16.7% 15.7% 16.4% 17.3% 15.6% -1.0%

National Nonfarm Employment, Sectoral Composition

Maryland Nonfarm EmploymentSectoral Composition

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-1525 Year Change

Compositional Change


7.5% 6.2% 6.5% 7.2% 5.8% 5.8% -1.8%

Manufacturing 9.1% 8.1% 7.1% 5.6% 4.6% 3.9% -5.2%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

20.6% 19.8% 19.2% 18.4% 17.3% 17.4% -3.2%

Information 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% -0.7%Financial Activities 6.3% 6.2% 6.0% 6.2% 5.7% 5.5% -0.8%Professional and Business Services

11.8% 12.8% 15.0% 15.2% 15.3% 16.1% 4.4%Education and Health Services 10.2% 12.2% 12.5% 13.8% 15.8% 16.4% 6.1%Leisure and Hospitality 8.5% 8.6% 8.3% 8.9% 9.1% 10.1% 1.6%

Other Services 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.3% -0.1%

Government 19.4% 19.5% 18.4% 18.3% 19.9% 19.1% -0.3%

People Persons will Persist through AutomationAdvantage: Women

Source: Fivethirtyeight.com, David J. Deming, “The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market

• Interpersonal skills are increasingly a requirement of top jobs;

• While STEM skills are still desirable, they are more likely to be assumed by computers;

• A 2013 study by Oxford researchers estimated half of U.S jobs would be vulnerable to automation by 2033;

• Cognitive skills don’t vary by gender, but women perform better on tests of social perceptiveness and emotional intelligence.

Tomorrow Never Dies

*1997: Pierce Brosnan; Michelle Yeoh; Teri Hatcher

Gasoline StationsElectronics & Appliance Stores

General Merchandise StoresClothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

Furniture & Home Furn. StoresMotor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

Food & Beverage StoresBuilding Material & Garden Supplies Dealers

Miscellaneous Store RetailersSporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores

Food Services & Drinking PlacesHealth & Personal Care Stores

Internet, etc. Retailers

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

-9.5%-3.1%

-0.7%-0.5%

0.2%2.1%2.6%

3.6%4.5%5.2%

6.5%8.3%

12.2%

12-month % change

Sales Growth by Type of Business May 2015 v. May 2016*

Source: U.S. Census Bureau *May 2016 advanced estimate

Total Retail Sales: +2.5% YOY

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through April 2016

Source: Conference Board

Aug-07

Apr-08

Dec-08

Aug-09

Apr-10

Dec-10

Aug-11

Apr-12

Dec-12

Aug-13

Apr-14

Dec-14

Aug-15

Apr-16

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

One

-mon

th P

erce

nt C

hang

e

April 2016: 123.9 where 2010: 100

Dr. Know

• Not a Happy New Year so far. Everyone knows about China and N. Korea, but we have problems right here;

• Corporate profit margins are slipping and inflationary pressures are building – does not sound like a great recipe for stock prices or for corporate investment;

• Only the consumer is really contributing significantly to growth, with state and local government spending playing a supporting role;

• Job growth should remain decent in the near-term – we ended 2015 with a near-record in total job openings and recent JOLTS data have indicated high demand for human capital;

• It’s really about meaningful credentials – that’s just the way it is – here are some of the areas of focus – health, homebuilding, logistics, IT, finance, equipment repair/maintenance and assembly;

• We may be transitioning very quickly from the mid-cycle stage of the recovery to the late-stage: 2017-18 outlook very murky.

*1962: Sean Connery; Ursula Andress

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annual meeting presentation 06.17.16

Government & Nonprofit