resizing for effect€¦ · resizing for effect presented by benjamin m brooks whitney raas lonn...

Courtesy of Benjamin Brooks, Whitney Raas, and Lonn Waters. Used with permission.

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Resizing for EffectResizing for EffectPresented by

Benjamin M Brooks Whitney Raas Lonn Waters

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9 December 2004 2

US Grand StrategyUS Grand Strategy ­-Very Selective EngagementVery Selective Engagement¾ Secure American Vital Interests ¾ Deter Strategic Competitors ¾ Develop and Reinforce Alliance

Cooperation ¾ Encourage Regional Partnerships ¾ Humanitarian Missions

ber 20049 Decem 3

Threats to US SecurityThreats to US Security

Chinese Forces as of 2005 •Navy

-67 Submarines -24 Destroyers -273 Other Attack Vessels

•Air Force -120 bombers -1400 fighters

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9 December 2004 4

¾ China ¾ Terrorism ¾ North Korea ¾ Middle East ¾ WMD Proliferation

Worldwide ThreatsWorldwide Threats

9 December 2004 5

US ArmyUS Army -- Lean and LethalLean and Lethal

¾ 1 Major Theater War – 8 Division Equivalents (~275,000)

¾ 1 Small Regional Contingency (Korea) – 2 Division Equivalent (~70,000)

¾ Humanitarian and Peacekeeping Missions – 1 Division Equivalent (~35,000)

9 December 2004 6

Results of ResizingResults of Resizing

¾ Cuts Current End Strength ¾ Army Active Duty 82,503 485,315 402,812 ¾ Army Reserve 26,850 179,000 152,150 ¾ Army Guard 70,000 350,000 280,000

9 December 2004 7

¾ Active Duty (13 Brigades, 1 Corp Headquarters) ~ $10B

¾ Reserve (8 Brigades) ~ $800M ¾ National Guard (2 Divisions) ~ $800M ¾ 12 Guard Field Artillery Brigades ~ $1.2 ¾ Future Combat System $3B ¾ MILCON Savings ~$280M

ARMY Cuts and SavingsARMY Cuts and Savings per Yearper Year

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9 December 2004 8

Army RestructuringArmy Restructuring

¾ 82nd, 101st, 10 Mountain – (reduced by 3 brigades each and reconsolidated

into light and airborne brigade teams with organic heavy lift CH-47s)

¾ Cut I Corp Headquarters – Reassign subordinate units to V Corp

¾ Cut 3rd Infantry Division (Fort Stewart)

9 December 2004 9

¾ Identify Threat ¾ Determine Response ¾ Spin-up Units (Train and Equip) ¾ Backstop for deployed units

6 Month Response Time6 Month Response Time

9 December 2004 10

¾ Move to Brigade Combat Teams instead of Divisions

¾ Accelerate Stryker Acquisition and Deployment (Approp Title 2033) – $975M per year, per Unit Cost $3.2M

¾ Increase RDTE and Initial Procurement for Communications Upgrades and Sensors (Approp Title 2035) – $1B per year redirected from FCS

Army ModernizationArmy Modernization Image removed due to

copyright reasons.

9 December 2004 11

Army ProcurementArmy Procurement

¾ Refit and Upgrade Abrams and Bradleys – $700M (Approp Title 2033)

¾ Buy Patriot PAC-3 for deployment in Japan and Taiwan (65 per year at 4.5M per)

– $300M (Approp Title 2032)

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9 December 2004 12

Overseas Army BasingOverseas Army Basing

Europe •Halve force •Rotate 6 BCTs •~$76M/year savings

Iraq •25,000 permanent troops •~$2550M/year cost

Korea •Land Partnership Plan

--- 28,000 permanent troops

--­ no $ change

9 December 2004 13

Army Base Realignment inArmy Base Realignment in KoreaKorea

¾ Korea - Land Partnership Plan (LPP) – Close Outdated Facilities – Concentrate Troops at Camp Humphreys and Osan Airfield – Mitigate Land Tensions with South Koreans (esp. around

Seoul) – Reduced Costs of Base Maintenance and Travel – Remove forward-deployed units from DPRK artillery Range – Koreans pay for 85% – Net Cost ~ $0.00

9 December 2004 14

Future Army BudgetsFuture Army Budgets2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

F2007 FYDP Army Total

103.9 105.3 105.3 107.2 109.2

Restructured Army Budget

90.85 92.3 92.3 94.2 96.2

9 December 2004

Effective Cuts on 2007 BudgetEffective Cuts on 2007 Budget

90.85-13.035103.885Total 1.4901.49Other 2.444-0.282.724MilCon 63.794-12.7376.524O&S 8.187-210.187RDT&E 14.9351.97512.96Proc.

2007 Final

Cuts/ Savings

2007 FYDP

15

9 December 2004 16

Air SuperiorityAir Superiority

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9 December 2004 17

Strategy Effects on theStrategy Effects on theAir ForceAir Force

¾ Non-intervention policy – Short-range air force

¾ Undisputed US control of the air – No pressing need for extensive expenditures on

advanced air capabilities ¾ Heavier, smaller Army

– Large, but fewer, transport aircraft

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9 December 2004 18

AF O&S and MilitaryAF O&S and Military ConstructionConstruction

¾ Reduce Active and Reserve forces by 10% ¾ Reduce Air National Guard by 20% ¾ Suspend 100% of pilot bonus

Total Savings of $22.7B over five years

9 December 2004 19

RDT&ERDT&E

¾ Reduce RDT&E for JSF by $200M/year ¾ Fund Space-Based Radar at $100M/year

Total Savings of $3.73B over five years

9 December 2004 20

Procurement: AirliftProcurement: Airlift¾ Cancel scheduled

buy of 13 C-17s in 2007 (167/180)

¾ Reduce C-130J purchases (81/111)

¾ Push back C-5 RERP procurement (10/50)

¾ Reduce number of CV-22s (10/15)

Total Savings of $10.9B over five years

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9 December 2004 21

Procurement: FProcurement: F--2222

¾No need for the F-22 – No hostile country can challenge US fighter

planes – SLEP of F-15s reduces need to procure new

planes

11800000118Adjusted Schedule

2172831323232118Original Schedule

TotalFY11FY10FY08FY08FY07Prior Years

9 December 2004 22

Procurement: Joint StrikeProcurement: Joint Strike FighterFighter

¾ Delay in procurement offset by SLEP F-15, previous F-22 buys

3020100000Adjusted Schedule

13760302512100Original Schedule

TotalFY11FY10FY08FY0 8

FY07Prior Years

Total Savings in procurement of $37B over five years

9 December 2004 23

Total Air Force SavingsTotal Air Force Savings by Programby Program

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Fiscal Year

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs (F

Y05) SBR

CV-22 C-5 C-130J C-17 JSF F-22 Milcon O&S

9 December 2004 24

Total AF Savings byTotal AF Savings by Budget AuthorityBudget Authority

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fiscal Year

Savi

ngs

in M

illio

ns (F

Y05)

MilCon O&S RDT&E Procurement

9 December 2004 25

Missile DefenseMissile Defense

Fund RDT&E at $1 B per year

Total Savings of $47.6B over five years

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9 December 2004 26

Sea PowerSea Power

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9 December 2004 27

MethodologyMethodology

¾ Decided how VSE would affect USN ¾ Defined the threat China posed ¾ Looked for savings only in the difference

between projected budget and resized force – Saved by cutting ships and their crews

¾ Redefined force projection

9 December 2004 28

VSE Effects on US Navy andVSE Effects on US Navy and MarinesMarines

¾ Naval Forces Should be Resized – Force projection limited to areas of high threat

and/or interest only ¾ Keep Marines and Amphibious Ships as is

– Resizing of Army suggests need for ground forces

– Resizing of Airlift suggests need for high amounts of Sealift

9 December 2004 29

Sizing up the Chinese NavySizing up the Chinese Navy

¾ Large Fleet ~280 ships – Strengths

z ~ 60 Submarines z ~ 90 Missile Ships

– Weaknesses z Our ships are much more advanced z They have very little to no Naval Air Power

¾ Our Fleet will be able to deter them because of the force multipliers obtained by our technology and Naval Air

9 December 2004

Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007

¾ Carriers – Approp 1453N, 1804N – Decommission USS JFK, Kitty Hawk, and

Enterprise

12181218121820702070Total

81281281213801380Mil Pers

406406406690690O&M

20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$

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9 December 2004

Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007

¾ Submarines– Approp 1453N, 1804N – Resized number of LA Class from 51 to 38 – Resized number of Ohio Class SSBNs from 14

to 9

417.75377.55377.55377.55377.55Total

278.5251.7251.7251.7251.7Mil Pers

139.25125.8125.85125.85125.85O&M

20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$

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9 December 2004

Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007

¾ Destroyers – Approp 1453N, 1804N – Resized number of Arleigh Burke Class from

55 to 45 – Decommissioned all 5 Spruance Class

484.5484.5484.5484.5484.5Total

323323323323323Mil Pers

161.5161.5161.5161.5161.5O&M

20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$

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9 December 2004

Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007

¾ Frigates – Approp 1453N, 1804N – Resized number of Frigates form 25 to 20

161.25161.25161.25161.25161.25Total

107.5107.5107.5107.5107.5Mil Pers

53.7553.7553.7553.7553.75O&M

20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$

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9 December 2004

Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007

¾ Marines – Approp 1105N, 1106N – Reduced 3000 enlisted Marines across the

service

900900900900900Total

600600600600600Mil Pers

300300300300300O&M

20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$

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9 December 2004 35

Procurement ChangesProcurement Changes

¾ Submarines – Approp 1611N

5 8

Total

12011Reduced 22211Original

20112010200920082007Virginia Class

9 December 2004 36

Procurement ChangesProcurement Changes

¾ Littoral Combat Ship(LCS)– Approp 1611N

3 20

Total

00111Reduced 55631Original

20112010200920082007LCS

9 December 2004 37

Procurement ChangesProcurement Changes

¾ DDX – Approp 1611N

5 11

Total

11111Reduced 22322Original

20112010200920082007DDX

9 December 2004 38

Procurement ChangesProcurement Changes

¾ Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) – Approp 1506N

75 110

Total

202020132Reduced 322832162Original

20112010200920082007JSF

9 December 2004 39

Total SavingsTotal Savings

In Millions of FY05$

8111.755294.811645.85603.35393.3Total 46401960844016101400Proc

3471.753234.83205.83993.33993.3O&S

20112010200920082007

9 December 2004 40

Redefining Force ProjectionRedefining Force Projection

¾ All bases will remain ¾ Carriers will work off of a resized Fast

Response Plan ¾ Carrier deployments will be limited in the

Atlantic, and focused on the Mediterranean and Pacific

¾ More attack submarines will be deployed off the Taiwanese East Coast

9 December 2004

TotalTotal DoDDoD SavingsSavings

200.0742.6737.3744.5536.0739.41Total

-12.75-2.55-2.55-2.55-2.55-2.55Iraq

0.380.0760.0760.0760.0760.076Basing

47.61312.5117.6067.4119.096Defense Wide

36.058.115.2911.655.605.39Navy

63.6011.5010.5114.7612.4914.36AF

65.17513.03513.03513.03513.03513.035Army

FY07­FY11

FY11FY10FY09FY08FY07

41

9 December 2004 42

¾ Resizing the military was easy. We don’t understand why it hasn’t been done yet. Seriously.

ConclusionsConclusions

9 December 2004 43

¾ We would like to thank: – Prof. Cindy Williams – All Military Fellows

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

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References:

Assistant Secretary of the Army for Financial Management and

Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans: Detailed Update for Fiscal Year 2005 (September 2004), Figures 3-20, 3-24, 3-30. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=5863&sequence=0.

9 December 2004

Comptroller - ASA (FM&C) - Current Year's Army Budget Materials. Available at: http://www.asafm.army.mil/budget/fybm/fybm.asp.

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Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Options for Changing the Army’s Overseas Basing. May 2004. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=5415&sequence=0.

Cote, Owen. “Buying ‘...From the Sea’: A Defense Budget for a Maritime Strategy.” In Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Alternatives for the Early 21st Century, 141-180. Cambridge, Mass. and London: MIT Press, 2001.

Department of the Air Force. Fiscal Year 2005 Budget Estimates: Research, Development, Test & Evaluation (RDT&E) Vol. 2 (February 2004). Available at: http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2005/#.

9 December 2004

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GlobalSecurity.org: U.S. Army. Available at: http://globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/

Office of the Secretary of Defense. Budget Materials (DOD Comptrollers Procurement Programs P-1). Available at: http://www.dod.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2005/fy2005_p1.xls.

Quinlivan, James. “Flexible Ground Forces.” In Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Alternatives for the Early 21st Century, 228. Cambridge, Mass. and London: MIT Press, 2001.

9 December 2004

Mikos, Lt. Col. Mike. Interview with author (Lonn Waters).