resizing for effect€¦ · resizing for effect presented by benjamin m brooks whitney raas lonn...
TRANSCRIPT
Courtesy of Benjamin Brooks, Whitney Raas, and Lonn Waters. Used with permission.
1
Resizing for EffectResizing for EffectPresented by
Benjamin M Brooks Whitney Raas Lonn Waters
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9 December 2004 2
US Grand StrategyUS Grand Strategy -Very Selective EngagementVery Selective Engagement¾ Secure American Vital Interests ¾ Deter Strategic Competitors ¾ Develop and Reinforce Alliance
Cooperation ¾ Encourage Regional Partnerships ¾ Humanitarian Missions
ber 20049 Decem 3
Threats to US SecurityThreats to US Security
Chinese Forces as of 2005 •Navy
-67 Submarines -24 Destroyers -273 Other Attack Vessels
•Air Force -120 bombers -1400 fighters
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9 December 2004 4
¾ China ¾ Terrorism ¾ North Korea ¾ Middle East ¾ WMD Proliferation
Worldwide ThreatsWorldwide Threats
9 December 2004 5
US ArmyUS Army -- Lean and LethalLean and Lethal
¾ 1 Major Theater War – 8 Division Equivalents (~275,000)
¾ 1 Small Regional Contingency (Korea) – 2 Division Equivalent (~70,000)
¾ Humanitarian and Peacekeeping Missions – 1 Division Equivalent (~35,000)
9 December 2004 6
Results of ResizingResults of Resizing
¾ Cuts Current End Strength ¾ Army Active Duty 82,503 485,315 402,812 ¾ Army Reserve 26,850 179,000 152,150 ¾ Army Guard 70,000 350,000 280,000
9 December 2004 7
¾ Active Duty (13 Brigades, 1 Corp Headquarters) ~ $10B
¾ Reserve (8 Brigades) ~ $800M ¾ National Guard (2 Divisions) ~ $800M ¾ 12 Guard Field Artillery Brigades ~ $1.2 ¾ Future Combat System $3B ¾ MILCON Savings ~$280M
ARMY Cuts and SavingsARMY Cuts and Savings per Yearper Year
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9 December 2004 8
Army RestructuringArmy Restructuring
¾ 82nd, 101st, 10 Mountain – (reduced by 3 brigades each and reconsolidated
into light and airborne brigade teams with organic heavy lift CH-47s)
¾ Cut I Corp Headquarters – Reassign subordinate units to V Corp
¾ Cut 3rd Infantry Division (Fort Stewart)
9 December 2004 9
¾ Identify Threat ¾ Determine Response ¾ Spin-up Units (Train and Equip) ¾ Backstop for deployed units
6 Month Response Time6 Month Response Time
9 December 2004 10
¾ Move to Brigade Combat Teams instead of Divisions
¾ Accelerate Stryker Acquisition and Deployment (Approp Title 2033) – $975M per year, per Unit Cost $3.2M
¾ Increase RDTE and Initial Procurement for Communications Upgrades and Sensors (Approp Title 2035) – $1B per year redirected from FCS
Army ModernizationArmy Modernization Image removed due to
copyright reasons.
9 December 2004 11
Army ProcurementArmy Procurement
¾ Refit and Upgrade Abrams and Bradleys – $700M (Approp Title 2033)
¾ Buy Patriot PAC-3 for deployment in Japan and Taiwan (65 per year at 4.5M per)
– $300M (Approp Title 2032)
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9 December 2004 12
Overseas Army BasingOverseas Army Basing
Europe •Halve force •Rotate 6 BCTs •~$76M/year savings
Iraq •25,000 permanent troops •~$2550M/year cost
Korea •Land Partnership Plan
--- 28,000 permanent troops
-- no $ change
9 December 2004 13
Army Base Realignment inArmy Base Realignment in KoreaKorea
¾ Korea - Land Partnership Plan (LPP) – Close Outdated Facilities – Concentrate Troops at Camp Humphreys and Osan Airfield – Mitigate Land Tensions with South Koreans (esp. around
Seoul) – Reduced Costs of Base Maintenance and Travel – Remove forward-deployed units from DPRK artillery Range – Koreans pay for 85% – Net Cost ~ $0.00
9 December 2004 14
Future Army BudgetsFuture Army Budgets2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
F2007 FYDP Army Total
103.9 105.3 105.3 107.2 109.2
Restructured Army Budget
90.85 92.3 92.3 94.2 96.2
9 December 2004
Effective Cuts on 2007 BudgetEffective Cuts on 2007 Budget
90.85-13.035103.885Total 1.4901.49Other 2.444-0.282.724MilCon 63.794-12.7376.524O&S 8.187-210.187RDT&E 14.9351.97512.96Proc.
2007 Final
Cuts/ Savings
2007 FYDP
15
9 December 2004 16
Air SuperiorityAir Superiority
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9 December 2004 17
Strategy Effects on theStrategy Effects on theAir ForceAir Force
¾ Non-intervention policy – Short-range air force
¾ Undisputed US control of the air – No pressing need for extensive expenditures on
advanced air capabilities ¾ Heavier, smaller Army
– Large, but fewer, transport aircraft
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9 December 2004 18
AF O&S and MilitaryAF O&S and Military ConstructionConstruction
¾ Reduce Active and Reserve forces by 10% ¾ Reduce Air National Guard by 20% ¾ Suspend 100% of pilot bonus
Total Savings of $22.7B over five years
9 December 2004 19
RDT&ERDT&E
¾ Reduce RDT&E for JSF by $200M/year ¾ Fund Space-Based Radar at $100M/year
Total Savings of $3.73B over five years
9 December 2004 20
Procurement: AirliftProcurement: Airlift¾ Cancel scheduled
buy of 13 C-17s in 2007 (167/180)
¾ Reduce C-130J purchases (81/111)
¾ Push back C-5 RERP procurement (10/50)
¾ Reduce number of CV-22s (10/15)
Total Savings of $10.9B over five years
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9 December 2004 21
Procurement: FProcurement: F--2222
¾No need for the F-22 – No hostile country can challenge US fighter
planes – SLEP of F-15s reduces need to procure new
planes
11800000118Adjusted Schedule
2172831323232118Original Schedule
TotalFY11FY10FY08FY08FY07Prior Years
9 December 2004 22
Procurement: Joint StrikeProcurement: Joint Strike FighterFighter
¾ Delay in procurement offset by SLEP F-15, previous F-22 buys
3020100000Adjusted Schedule
13760302512100Original Schedule
TotalFY11FY10FY08FY0 8
FY07Prior Years
Total Savings in procurement of $37B over five years
9 December 2004 23
Total Air Force SavingsTotal Air Force Savings by Programby Program
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Fiscal Year
Mill
ions
of D
olla
rs (F
Y05) SBR
CV-22 C-5 C-130J C-17 JSF F-22 Milcon O&S
9 December 2004 24
Total AF Savings byTotal AF Savings by Budget AuthorityBudget Authority
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fiscal Year
Savi
ngs
in M
illio
ns (F
Y05)
MilCon O&S RDT&E Procurement
9 December 2004 25
Missile DefenseMissile Defense
Fund RDT&E at $1 B per year
Total Savings of $47.6B over five years
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9 December 2004 26
Sea PowerSea Power
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9 December 2004 27
MethodologyMethodology
¾ Decided how VSE would affect USN ¾ Defined the threat China posed ¾ Looked for savings only in the difference
between projected budget and resized force – Saved by cutting ships and their crews
¾ Redefined force projection
9 December 2004 28
VSE Effects on US Navy andVSE Effects on US Navy and MarinesMarines
¾ Naval Forces Should be Resized – Force projection limited to areas of high threat
and/or interest only ¾ Keep Marines and Amphibious Ships as is
– Resizing of Army suggests need for ground forces
– Resizing of Airlift suggests need for high amounts of Sealift
9 December 2004 29
Sizing up the Chinese NavySizing up the Chinese Navy
¾ Large Fleet ~280 ships – Strengths
z ~ 60 Submarines z ~ 90 Missile Ships
– Weaknesses z Our ships are much more advanced z They have very little to no Naval Air Power
¾ Our Fleet will be able to deter them because of the force multipliers obtained by our technology and Naval Air
9 December 2004
Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007
¾ Carriers – Approp 1453N, 1804N – Decommission USS JFK, Kitty Hawk, and
Enterprise
12181218121820702070Total
81281281213801380Mil Pers
406406406690690O&M
20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$
30
9 December 2004
Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007
¾ Submarines– Approp 1453N, 1804N – Resized number of LA Class from 51 to 38 – Resized number of Ohio Class SSBNs from 14
to 9
417.75377.55377.55377.55377.55Total
278.5251.7251.7251.7251.7Mil Pers
139.25125.8125.85125.85125.85O&M
20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$
31
9 December 2004
Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007
¾ Destroyers – Approp 1453N, 1804N – Resized number of Arleigh Burke Class from
55 to 45 – Decommissioned all 5 Spruance Class
484.5484.5484.5484.5484.5Total
323323323323323Mil Pers
161.5161.5161.5161.5161.5O&M
20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$
32
9 December 2004
Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007
¾ Frigates – Approp 1453N, 1804N – Resized number of Frigates form 25 to 20
161.25161.25161.25161.25161.25Total
107.5107.5107.5107.5107.5Mil Pers
53.7553.7553.7553.7553.75O&M
20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$
33
9 December 2004
Force Reductions EffectiveForce Reductions Effective FY2007FY2007
¾ Marines – Approp 1105N, 1106N – Reduced 3000 enlisted Marines across the
service
900900900900900Total
600600600600600Mil Pers
300300300300300O&M
20112010200920082007Savings in Millions of FY05$
34
9 December 2004 35
Procurement ChangesProcurement Changes
¾ Submarines – Approp 1611N
5 8
Total
12011Reduced 22211Original
20112010200920082007Virginia Class
9 December 2004 36
Procurement ChangesProcurement Changes
¾ Littoral Combat Ship(LCS)– Approp 1611N
3 20
Total
00111Reduced 55631Original
20112010200920082007LCS
9 December 2004 37
Procurement ChangesProcurement Changes
¾ DDX – Approp 1611N
5 11
Total
11111Reduced 22322Original
20112010200920082007DDX
9 December 2004 38
Procurement ChangesProcurement Changes
¾ Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) – Approp 1506N
75 110
Total
202020132Reduced 322832162Original
20112010200920082007JSF
9 December 2004 39
Total SavingsTotal Savings
In Millions of FY05$
8111.755294.811645.85603.35393.3Total 46401960844016101400Proc
3471.753234.83205.83993.33993.3O&S
20112010200920082007
9 December 2004 40
Redefining Force ProjectionRedefining Force Projection
¾ All bases will remain ¾ Carriers will work off of a resized Fast
Response Plan ¾ Carrier deployments will be limited in the
Atlantic, and focused on the Mediterranean and Pacific
¾ More attack submarines will be deployed off the Taiwanese East Coast
9 December 2004
TotalTotal DoDDoD SavingsSavings
200.0742.6737.3744.5536.0739.41Total
-12.75-2.55-2.55-2.55-2.55-2.55Iraq
0.380.0760.0760.0760.0760.076Basing
47.61312.5117.6067.4119.096Defense Wide
36.058.115.2911.655.605.39Navy
63.6011.5010.5114.7612.4914.36AF
65.17513.03513.03513.03513.03513.035Army
FY07FY11
FY11FY10FY09FY08FY07
41
9 December 2004 42
¾ Resizing the military was easy. We don’t understand why it hasn’t been done yet. Seriously.
ConclusionsConclusions
9 December 2004 43
¾ We would like to thank: – Prof. Cindy Williams – All Military Fellows
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
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References:
Assistant Secretary of the Army for Financial Management and
Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans: Detailed Update for Fiscal Year 2005 (September 2004), Figures 3-20, 3-24, 3-30. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=5863&sequence=0.
9 December 2004
Comptroller - ASA (FM&C) - Current Year's Army Budget Materials. Available at: http://www.asafm.army.mil/budget/fybm/fybm.asp.
45
Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Options for Changing the Army’s Overseas Basing. May 2004. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=5415&sequence=0.
Cote, Owen. “Buying ‘...From the Sea’: A Defense Budget for a Maritime Strategy.” In Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Alternatives for the Early 21st Century, 141-180. Cambridge, Mass. and London: MIT Press, 2001.
Department of the Air Force. Fiscal Year 2005 Budget Estimates: Research, Development, Test & Evaluation (RDT&E) Vol. 2 (February 2004). Available at: http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2005/#.
9 December 2004
46
GlobalSecurity.org: U.S. Army. Available at: http://globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/
Office of the Secretary of Defense. Budget Materials (DOD Comptrollers Procurement Programs P-1). Available at: http://www.dod.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2005/fy2005_p1.xls.
Quinlivan, James. “Flexible Ground Forces.” In Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Alternatives for the Early 21st Century, 228. Cambridge, Mass. and London: MIT Press, 2001.
9 December 2004
Mikos, Lt. Col. Mike. Interview with author (Lonn Waters).