research 2008: vulnerability to climate change (2008)
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Vulnerability to climate change in Umkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Report written by Dr Alison Misselhorn on behalf of Oxfam Australia
Research 2008
3
Contents
1. Summary 5
2. Background 6
3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district 7
4 Climate change and vulnerability 9
5. Projected climate change in Umkhanyakude district 10
5.1 Background: climate change research and data 10
5.2 Climate change impacts 10
6. Food security, livelihoods and climate change in Umkhanyakude 11
6.1 Introduction 11
6.2 Crop production 13
6.3 Rangelands 13
6.4 Human health 13
6.5. Degradation of biodiversity 16
6.6 Sea levels 17
6.7 Tourism 17
6.8. Natural disasters 17
7. Mapping vulnerability in Umkhanyakude 18
7.1 Introduction 18
7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI) 18
8. Conclusion 24
9. Glossary of terms 26
10. References 27
Contact details 30
Acknowledgements
Oxfam Australia acknowledges the input
of partners and community members from
the Umkhanyakude Partnership Program
who participated in an earlier research
process that informed the development
of this publication.
Thanks also go to Oxfam Australia staff
in Melbourne and South Africa as well as
editor Cathy Moloney for her contribution.
Left: Elphinia Ngubane is a volunteer for the Simbambisene Community Centre and is seen here working on one of the Ubambo Community food security projects. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
Front Cover: Thandi Diamini standing in her hut made of wood and mud.
Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
2
3
Contents
1. Summary 5
2. Background 6
3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district 7
4 Climate change and vulnerability 9
5. Projected climate change in Umkhanyakude district 10
5.1 Background: climate change research and data 10
5.2 Climate change impacts 10
6. Food security, livelihoods and climate change in Umkhanyakude 11
6.1 Introduction 11
6.2 Crop production 13
6.3 Rangelands 13
6.4 Human health 13
6.5. Degradation of biodiversity 16
6.6 Sea levels 17
6.7 Tourism 17
6.8. Natural disasters 17
7. Mapping vulnerability in Umkhanyakude 18
7.1 Introduction 18
7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI) 18
8. Conclusion 24
9. Glossary of terms 26
10. References 27
Contact details 30
Acknowledgements
Oxfam Australia acknowledges the input
of partners and community members from
the Umkhanyakude Partnership Program
who participated in an earlier research
process that informed the development
of this publication.
Thanks also go to Oxfam Australia staff
in Melbourne and South Africa as well as
editor Cathy Moloney for her contribution.
Left: Elphinia Ngubane is a volunteer for the Simbambisene Community Centre and is seen here working on one of the Ubambo Community food security projects. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
Front Cover: Thandi Diamini standing in her hut made of wood and mud.
Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
2
55
1. Summary
1. Summary
The impacts of climate change apply
significant risk on top of existing stressors
that characterise the lives of vulnerable
people. In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated
the Umkhanyakude Parternship Program,
a food security program in the
Umkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal
(South Africa) that aims to strengthen food
and nutrition security within the context of
HIV and AIDS in the region. During the
early stages of this program, climate
change was identified as a particular threat
to food security development, and Oxfam
Australia commissioned this report to map
a range of climate-related risks in the
district and assess the vulnerability of
communities to these risks.
Food security is determined by agricultural
production as well as by food availability (eg
food markets); food access (such as being
able to afford to buy food); consistency of
food supply; and food utilisation and safety
factors, which are affected by health and
sanitation. In all municipalities of
Umkhanyakude, except Mtubatuba,
households spend more than half their
income on food which underscores that
food security is determined as much by the
ability to buy food as by the ability to grow
it. It is clear that multiple factors shape
people’s food security, and that the impact
of climate change on food security is highly
complex and extends beyond direct
environmental impacts.
Vulnerability to climate change is profoundly
determined by underdevelopment, and this
is the key challenge that faces the
Umkhanyakude district. The district has a
history of underdevelopment, and is
characterised by abject poverty, high rates
of unemployment, and low levels of literacy
and education. Umkhanyakude has the
highest malaria prevalence in the country,
and HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB)
are the leading causes of morbidity and
mortality. Poor infrastructure and an
absence of basic services are additional
challenges facing the district. Overall,
changes in water resources and the
hydrological system are arguably the most
profound environmental changes expected
with climate change.
There is a strong two-way relationship
between human health and food insecurity.
Water is critical for food preparation and
protecting against disease; with the
likelihood of less water being available for
drinking and sanitation, there is a greater
risk of water-borne disease. The climate
is also likely to become more suitable for
malaria. Rainfall variability, humidity,
standing water, extreme rainfall and rainfall
timing, and extreme temperatures all affect
mosquito larval development, range, and
malarial transmission rates.
Left: Uthoko Nophila and her baby outside their home in Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
4
55
1. Summary
1. Summary
The impacts of climate change apply
significant risk on top of existing stressors
that characterise the lives of vulnerable
people. In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated
the Umkhanyakude Parternship Program,
a food security program in the
Umkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal
(South Africa) that aims to strengthen food
and nutrition security within the context of
HIV and AIDS in the region. During the
early stages of this program, climate
change was identified as a particular threat
to food security development, and Oxfam
Australia commissioned this report to map
a range of climate-related risks in the
district and assess the vulnerability of
communities to these risks.
Food security is determined by agricultural
production as well as by food availability (eg
food markets); food access (such as being
able to afford to buy food); consistency of
food supply; and food utilisation and safety
factors, which are affected by health and
sanitation. In all municipalities of
Umkhanyakude, except Mtubatuba,
households spend more than half their
income on food which underscores that
food security is determined as much by the
ability to buy food as by the ability to grow
it. It is clear that multiple factors shape
people’s food security, and that the impact
of climate change on food security is highly
complex and extends beyond direct
environmental impacts.
Vulnerability to climate change is profoundly
determined by underdevelopment, and this
is the key challenge that faces the
Umkhanyakude district. The district has a
history of underdevelopment, and is
characterised by abject poverty, high rates
of unemployment, and low levels of literacy
and education. Umkhanyakude has the
highest malaria prevalence in the country,
and HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB)
are the leading causes of morbidity and
mortality. Poor infrastructure and an
absence of basic services are additional
challenges facing the district. Overall,
changes in water resources and the
hydrological system are arguably the most
profound environmental changes expected
with climate change.
There is a strong two-way relationship
between human health and food insecurity.
Water is critical for food preparation and
protecting against disease; with the
likelihood of less water being available for
drinking and sanitation, there is a greater
risk of water-borne disease. The climate
is also likely to become more suitable for
malaria. Rainfall variability, humidity,
standing water, extreme rainfall and rainfall
timing, and extreme temperatures all affect
mosquito larval development, range, and
malarial transmission rates.
Left: Uthoko Nophila and her baby outside their home in Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
4
6 76
2. Background
2. Background
In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated the
Umkhanyakude Partnership Program, with
the aim of strengthening food and nutrition
security within the context of HIV and AIDS
in the region. The food security program
partners identified climate change as one
of the issues that needs to be addressed
within Umkhanyakude. In all municipalities
a number of long-term environmental trends
are occurring. These include increasing
deforestation due to people removing wood
for domestic use which is leading to soil
degradation, increased rainfall variability,
warmer winters, and increased incidence
and length of drought. These in turn are
affecting crop productivity, diversity, quality,
and food security.1
Figure one: The municipalities within
South Africa’s Umkhanyakude district.2
Umkhanyakude District Municipality is one
of KwaZulu-Natal’s 10 district councils and
consists of five local municipalities and one
district-managed area. The 2001 census
estimates a population of some 590,000
people, with the highest dependency ratio
(children under 15 years to adults) and one
of the highest percentages of vulnerable
groups (women, children and the elderly)
of all districts in KwaZulu-Natal. Abject
poverty is experienced by about 77% of the
district’s population.3 The district has the
highest malaria prevalence in the country.
HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) are the
leading causes of morbidity and mortality.4
7
3. Overview
The northern municipality of
Umhlabuyalingana has the highest levels
of chronic malnutrition and underweight
children, ahead of Hlabisa, which is the
largest municipality in terms of population
size. The municipalities of Mtubatuba, rural
Umkhanyakude (where 62,000 households
are reported to suffer from lack of food) and
The Big Five False Bay show improving
trends in wasting5 indicating a general
improvement in the malnutrition situation.
In all municipalities except Mtubatuba,
households spend more than half their
income on food, even in areas where crops
are grown intensively. A significant
percentage of income is also spent on
transport due to remoteness from urban
areas and markets (in some municipalities
more than 20% of income is spent
on transport).6
The Integrated Sustainable Rural
Development Programme (ISRDP) forms
part of the South African Government’s
strategy to improve the wellbeing and
opportunities of the rural poor. The first
phase of the ISRDP targets 13 district
municipalities, known as nodes, of which
Umkhanyakude District Municipality is
one. Initial findings indicate that poor
infrastructure and basic services are
some of the key challenges facing the
municipality. More than 60% of households
do not have a telephone connection, less
than 30% of households are connected to
the electricity supply, and more than 75%
of households do not have access to basic
sanitation facilities and a potable water
supply.7 Critical shortages of health facilities
are of great concern considering HIV and
AIDS prevalence is higher in KwaZulu-Natal
than in other South African provinces. HIV
and AIDS prevalence ranges from about
20% to 44% and is estimated to average
between 20% and 30% within
Umkhanyakude district.8
2. At the time of writing, the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The new name is used throughout this report except in the maps which were compiled prior to the name change.
3. Karumbidza (2007).
4. Zondi (2004). 5. Children whose weight for height is significantly
below the norm.
6. DoA (2006). 7. IDT (2007). 8. KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health Annual
Report available at http://www.kznhealth.gov.za/annualreport2002.2003.pdf
Above: Nokhutula Dlamini is 23 years old and looks after four other children in this parentless household. Here she is seen outside in the open with her hut in the background. The Ubombo Centre helps this family by giving them food parcels, school uniforms and paying their school fees. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
1. Sterrett (2007).
3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district
Jozini
Umhlabuyalingana
Hlabisa
St Lucia Park
Mtubatuba
The Big 5 False Bay
6 76
2. Background
2. Background
In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated the
Umkhanyakude Partnership Program, with
the aim of strengthening food and nutrition
security within the context of HIV and AIDS
in the region. The food security program
partners identified climate change as one
of the issues that needs to be addressed
within Umkhanyakude. In all municipalities
a number of long-term environmental trends
are occurring. These include increasing
deforestation due to people removing wood
for domestic use which is leading to soil
degradation, increased rainfall variability,
warmer winters, and increased incidence
and length of drought. These in turn are
affecting crop productivity, diversity, quality,
and food security.1
Figure one: The municipalities within
South Africa’s Umkhanyakude district.2
Umkhanyakude District Municipality is one
of KwaZulu-Natal’s 10 district councils and
consists of five local municipalities and one
district-managed area. The 2001 census
estimates a population of some 590,000
people, with the highest dependency ratio
(children under 15 years to adults) and one
of the highest percentages of vulnerable
groups (women, children and the elderly)
of all districts in KwaZulu-Natal. Abject
poverty is experienced by about 77% of the
district’s population.3 The district has the
highest malaria prevalence in the country.
HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) are the
leading causes of morbidity and mortality.4
7
3. Overview
The northern municipality of
Umhlabuyalingana has the highest levels
of chronic malnutrition and underweight
children, ahead of Hlabisa, which is the
largest municipality in terms of population
size. The municipalities of Mtubatuba, rural
Umkhanyakude (where 62,000 households
are reported to suffer from lack of food) and
The Big Five False Bay show improving
trends in wasting5 indicating a general
improvement in the malnutrition situation.
In all municipalities except Mtubatuba,
households spend more than half their
income on food, even in areas where crops
are grown intensively. A significant
percentage of income is also spent on
transport due to remoteness from urban
areas and markets (in some municipalities
more than 20% of income is spent
on transport).6
The Integrated Sustainable Rural
Development Programme (ISRDP) forms
part of the South African Government’s
strategy to improve the wellbeing and
opportunities of the rural poor. The first
phase of the ISRDP targets 13 district
municipalities, known as nodes, of which
Umkhanyakude District Municipality is
one. Initial findings indicate that poor
infrastructure and basic services are
some of the key challenges facing the
municipality. More than 60% of households
do not have a telephone connection, less
than 30% of households are connected to
the electricity supply, and more than 75%
of households do not have access to basic
sanitation facilities and a potable water
supply.7 Critical shortages of health facilities
are of great concern considering HIV and
AIDS prevalence is higher in KwaZulu-Natal
than in other South African provinces. HIV
and AIDS prevalence ranges from about
20% to 44% and is estimated to average
between 20% and 30% within
Umkhanyakude district.8
2. At the time of writing, the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The new name is used throughout this report except in the maps which were compiled prior to the name change.
3. Karumbidza (2007).
4. Zondi (2004). 5. Children whose weight for height is significantly
below the norm.
6. DoA (2006). 7. IDT (2007). 8. KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health Annual
Report available at http://www.kznhealth.gov.za/annualreport2002.2003.pdf
Above: Nokhutula Dlamini is 23 years old and looks after four other children in this parentless household. Here she is seen outside in the open with her hut in the background. The Ubombo Centre helps this family by giving them food parcels, school uniforms and paying their school fees. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
1. Sterrett (2007).
3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district
Jozini
Umhlabuyalingana
Hlabisa
St Lucia Park
Mtubatuba
The Big 5 False Bay
8 9
Several other health risks characterise
vulnerability in Umkhanyakude. The
second-highest cause of mortality in the
district after HIV is tuberculosis, with about
65% of TB cases being co-infected with
HIV. The climate throughout the district is
also suitable for endemic malaria, with
northern Umkhanyakude considered a high
risk area where anti-malarial drugs are
recommended for all travellers.9
The high incidence of orphans throughout
South Africa is of particular concern. It is
estimated that, given no significant changes
in sexual behaviour or health interventions,
by 2015 around one third of children under
the age of 18 in South Africa will have lost
one or both parents, largely as a result of
the impact of the HIV and AIDS pandemic.10
Orphans are already at enormous socio-
economic risk, being more vulnerable than
children with parents to food insecurity,
desertion, illness, poverty, poor housing,
poor access to services and education,
emotional problems, and abuse.11 Climate
change is likely to add a further dimension
to this risk profile.
4. Climate change and vulnerability
Vulnerability to climate change in
Umkhanyakude is characterised by the
nature of these climate changes and by
the interaction between climate and the
area’s current and future socio-economic
and biophysical conditions. These
conditions determine its sensitivity
and adaptive capacity.
There are enormous gaps in the
understanding of the characteristics of
climate change globally, and for southern
Africa, including the nature of its impacts
on key areas such as human health,
agriculture, tourism and ecosystems.
Much of the climate-related research
on human health has focused on malaria,
but many uncertainties still exist about
how malaria will spread and research
is also needed into other diseases,
such as dengue fever and meningitis.12
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report
confirms that Africa is one of the most
vulnerable continents to climate change
and climate variability, particularly in
the face of multiple stresses and
underlying vulnerabilities.13
8
4. Vulnerability
Above: Coordinator for the Ingwavuma Orphan Care Centre speaks with Ugogo Eunice Thumbela, Nomobo Mavundia and Ncamsile Mavundla about the issues they are dealing with in their community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
9. See www.mara.org.za and www.malaria.org.za/
Malaria_Risk/Risk_Maps/risk_maps.htm
10. Freeman & Nkomo (2006). 11. Ibid.
Right: Mrs Mbhele's grandson, one tiny member of the 22-member household. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
12. Boko et al (2007). 13. Ibid.
9
8 9
Several other health risks characterise
vulnerability in Umkhanyakude. The
second-highest cause of mortality in the
district after HIV is tuberculosis, with about
65% of TB cases being co-infected with
HIV. The climate throughout the district is
also suitable for endemic malaria, with
northern Umkhanyakude considered a high
risk area where anti-malarial drugs are
recommended for all travellers.9
The high incidence of orphans throughout
South Africa is of particular concern. It is
estimated that, given no significant changes
in sexual behaviour or health interventions,
by 2015 around one third of children under
the age of 18 in South Africa will have lost
one or both parents, largely as a result of
the impact of the HIV and AIDS pandemic.10
Orphans are already at enormous socio-
economic risk, being more vulnerable than
children with parents to food insecurity,
desertion, illness, poverty, poor housing,
poor access to services and education,
emotional problems, and abuse.11 Climate
change is likely to add a further dimension
to this risk profile.
4. Climate change and vulnerability
Vulnerability to climate change in
Umkhanyakude is characterised by the
nature of these climate changes and by
the interaction between climate and the
area’s current and future socio-economic
and biophysical conditions. These
conditions determine its sensitivity
and adaptive capacity.
There are enormous gaps in the
understanding of the characteristics of
climate change globally, and for southern
Africa, including the nature of its impacts
on key areas such as human health,
agriculture, tourism and ecosystems.
Much of the climate-related research
on human health has focused on malaria,
but many uncertainties still exist about
how malaria will spread and research
is also needed into other diseases,
such as dengue fever and meningitis.12
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report
confirms that Africa is one of the most
vulnerable continents to climate change
and climate variability, particularly in
the face of multiple stresses and
underlying vulnerabilities.13
8
4. Vulnerability
Above: Coordinator for the Ingwavuma Orphan Care Centre speaks with Ugogo Eunice Thumbela, Nomobo Mavundia and Ncamsile Mavundla about the issues they are dealing with in their community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
9. See www.mara.org.za and www.malaria.org.za/
Malaria_Risk/Risk_Maps/risk_maps.htm
10. Freeman & Nkomo (2006). 11. Ibid.
Right: Mrs Mbhele's grandson, one tiny member of the 22-member household. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
12. Boko et al (2007). 13. Ibid.
9
10 1110
5. Projected climate change
5. Projected climate change
in Umkhanyakude district
5.1 Background:
climate change research and data
Extremely limited climate change research
has been undertaken in KwaZulu-Natal,
despite the enormous and diverse quantity
of environmental research that has gone into
the development of the iSimangaliso
Wetland Park, a World Heritage Site.14
At present, the only climate change-related
research in the park is looking at changes
in river flow and is very much in its early
stages. No research into climate
change vulnerability and adaptation
in Umkhanyakude could be sourced to
inform this report, indicating the urgent
need for expanding adaptation-orientated
climate change research in South and
southern Africa.
11
5.2 Climate change impacts
A number of general conclusions about
the future climate (2070–2100) are relevant
to the Umkhanyakude district and climate
modelling is constantly being refined.
Climate responses may in reality vary within
kilometres.15 Generalisations do not consider
anthropogenic interventions, responses and
adaptations, such as land-use change,
policy changes, demographic changes, and
so on. Thus they can only highlight
directions for thinking about risk analysis in
the district. Some of the main impacts of
climate change on the district are likely to be:
• lowerrainfall;
•wettersummers,drierwinters;
•highertemperatures;
• increasedhydrological
risk and uncertainty;
•highincidenceofextremerainfalldays;
•dryingoftopsoils;
• lesswaterfordrinking,
sanitation and irrigation;
• lesswaterinthesoilforplants;and
• increasesinirrigation
requirements for crops.16
Water is arguably South Africa’s most
limiting natural resource.17 The impacts on
vulnerability described in this section are
extensively, though not exclusively, shaped
by rainfall and hydrological responses to
climate change. There are numerous links
between climate change and water
resources, and changes in water resources
are arguably the most profound
environmental changes related to climate
change.18 South Africa is already a high risk
hydro-climatic environment characterised
by some of the most highly variable rainfalls
and stream-flows worldwide, and the
management of surface water and
groundwater is already challenging.19
6. Food security, livelihoods and
climate change in Umkhanyakude
6.1 Introduction
It has long been recognised that food
security is about more than food production.
There are a number of determinants of
food security, each of which applies
across scales:20
•Food availability: ensuring that a wide
variety of food is available in local markets
and from own production to supply
sufficient per capita food.
•Food access: focuses on demand-side
failures; even where there is sufficient
production of food, food insecurity may
still result due to entitlement failure —
inability to buy it, grow it, be given
it or work for it.
•Food stability: maintaining the
availability, accessibility and use of
food over time in the face of a variety
of natural, economic, social and policy
shocks and stresses.
•Food utilisation: food is chosen, stored,
prepared, distributed and eaten in ways
that are nutritionally adequate for all
members of the household, including
men and women, girls and boys.
Possible impacts of climate change
on three aspects of food security are
summarised in Figure two. It is clear
from this summary that the impacts will
be extremely complex, and will involve
direct changes to food production systems
and affect employment and livelihoods.
Many of the interactions and outcomes
will be highly localised, being dependent on
local socio-economic dynamics, resources,
and human responses. It is therefore
difficult to predict the exact food security
vulnerabilities that will arise.
6. Food security
14. The most recent available climate change research for South Africa is a report by multiple authors and institutions, published by the South African Water Research Commission, entitled Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation (2005).
15. Jarvis et al (2006).
16. Schulze (2005b).
17. Schulze (2005c).
18. Ibid.
19. Schulze (2005d).
Above: Cabangile Myeni is a single mother of three, from Jozini, South Africa, cares for her sister’s two orphaned children. Local partner Simbambisene supports the family with food parcels and seeds to grow a home garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
20. FAO (2007).
10 1110
5. Projected climate change
5. Projected climate change
in Umkhanyakude district
5.1 Background:
climate change research and data
Extremely limited climate change research
has been undertaken in KwaZulu-Natal,
despite the enormous and diverse quantity
of environmental research that has gone into
the development of the iSimangaliso
Wetland Park, a World Heritage Site.14
At present, the only climate change-related
research in the park is looking at changes
in river flow and is very much in its early
stages. No research into climate
change vulnerability and adaptation
in Umkhanyakude could be sourced to
inform this report, indicating the urgent
need for expanding adaptation-orientated
climate change research in South and
southern Africa.
11
5.2 Climate change impacts
A number of general conclusions about
the future climate (2070–2100) are relevant
to the Umkhanyakude district and climate
modelling is constantly being refined.
Climate responses may in reality vary within
kilometres.15 Generalisations do not consider
anthropogenic interventions, responses and
adaptations, such as land-use change,
policy changes, demographic changes, and
so on. Thus they can only highlight
directions for thinking about risk analysis in
the district. Some of the main impacts of
climate change on the district are likely to be:
• lowerrainfall;
•wettersummers,drierwinters;
•highertemperatures;
• increasedhydrological
risk and uncertainty;
•highincidenceofextremerainfalldays;
•dryingoftopsoils;
• lesswaterfordrinking,
sanitation and irrigation;
• lesswaterinthesoilforplants;and
• increasesinirrigation
requirements for crops.16
Water is arguably South Africa’s most
limiting natural resource.17 The impacts on
vulnerability described in this section are
extensively, though not exclusively, shaped
by rainfall and hydrological responses to
climate change. There are numerous links
between climate change and water
resources, and changes in water resources
are arguably the most profound
environmental changes related to climate
change.18 South Africa is already a high risk
hydro-climatic environment characterised
by some of the most highly variable rainfalls
and stream-flows worldwide, and the
management of surface water and
groundwater is already challenging.19
6. Food security, livelihoods and
climate change in Umkhanyakude
6.1 Introduction
It has long been recognised that food
security is about more than food production.
There are a number of determinants of
food security, each of which applies
across scales:20
•Food availability: ensuring that a wide
variety of food is available in local markets
and from own production to supply
sufficient per capita food.
•Food access: focuses on demand-side
failures; even where there is sufficient
production of food, food insecurity may
still result due to entitlement failure —
inability to buy it, grow it, be given
it or work for it.
•Food stability: maintaining the
availability, accessibility and use of
food over time in the face of a variety
of natural, economic, social and policy
shocks and stresses.
•Food utilisation: food is chosen, stored,
prepared, distributed and eaten in ways
that are nutritionally adequate for all
members of the household, including
men and women, girls and boys.
Possible impacts of climate change
on three aspects of food security are
summarised in Figure two. It is clear
from this summary that the impacts will
be extremely complex, and will involve
direct changes to food production systems
and affect employment and livelihoods.
Many of the interactions and outcomes
will be highly localised, being dependent on
local socio-economic dynamics, resources,
and human responses. It is therefore
difficult to predict the exact food security
vulnerabilities that will arise.
6. Food security
14. The most recent available climate change research for South Africa is a report by multiple authors and institutions, published by the South African Water Research Commission, entitled Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation (2005).
15. Jarvis et al (2006).
16. Schulze (2005b).
17. Schulze (2005c).
18. Ibid.
19. Schulze (2005d).
Above: Cabangile Myeni is a single mother of three, from Jozini, South Africa, cares for her sister’s two orphaned children. Local partner Simbambisene supports the family with food parcels and seeds to grow a home garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
20. FAO (2007).
12 13
Figure two: Links between
climate change in Africa and
three major components of
food security (this synthesis
first appeared in published
form in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report).
Food availability
1. Direct effect on crop yields (cereals,
vegitables, fruits and edible oils), rangelands
and meat production, fisheries and wild food
sources; through elevated CO2 levels,
variations in temperature and precipitation,
and length of growing season, increases in
crop pests and diseases and altering soil
fertility (eg desiccation and salination)1
2. Indirect environmental feedbacks through
responses such as use of marginal lands
increasing degradation and influencing
micro - and macro climates.2
Food access
1. Direct impact on agricultural zones
affecting incomes and jobs, and the macro
economy, which in turn shape livelihoods in
number of ways, eg forms of social protection.3
2. Direct effect on human health and susceptibility
to diseases such as malaria and AIDS which
undermine livelihoods capability and food security.4
3. Indirect alterations to social economic aspects
of livelihoods, food systems and development
processes through human responses, eg
land use and adaption responses.5
6.2 Crop production
2001 census data indicate that nearly
95% of the district’s population are rural
dwellers, and many households in
Umkhanyakude rely at least partially
on subsistence agriculture to meet some
of their food requirements. Hlabisa is
the municipality in which subsistence
agriculture is the most wide-spread,
covering most of the municipality.
In the Big Five False Bay municipality,
there are large areas under commercial
and subsistence agriculture.21
One of the greatest difficulties in
considering the impact of climate change
on agriculture is that crop and vegetation
responses to change have been projected
to be highly localised. For the majority of
cultivated land, the most likely best-case
scenario is that small reductions in yield
will occur.22
The most recent climate projections for
the country suggest that rain-fed agriculture
in Umkhanyakude is likely to be negatively
affected due to lower annual rainfall, higher
temperatures, increased hydrological risk,
increased rainfall variability, drying of top
soils, less water in the soil for plants, and
increased irrigation requirements.23 Such
a change may have serious implications
for food security and livelihoods locally
and nationally.
6.3 Rangelands
South Africa has extensive land
degradation challenges. Much of the land
covered by the Umkhanyakude district is
estimated to suffer from light to moderate
combined soil and veldt degradation. The
former homeland areas — which include
the Umkhanyakude district — are estimated
to be the most susceptible to further
degradation in the face of climate change.24
6.4 Human health
The links between health and food security
Food insecurity and poor health are closely
related. Food insecurity may lead to a state
of malnutrition which impairs physical
functioning, compromises the ability to
work, and affects development processes
such as growth (height and weight),
pregnancy and foetal development,
lactation, and resistance to and recovery
from disease. In turn, disease prevents
people from being able to invest in the
human capital necessary to avoiding
food insecurity, for example the capacity
to develop successful responses and
adaptations to vulnerability.
The choice, preparation and intake of
food are influenced by food access and
availability, education, culture, and food
preferences. It necessitates access to
clean water, and is also highly influenced by
access to refrigeration, sanitation and other
resources. The effects of climate change
described above, in which there is likely to
be reduced water for drinking and sanitation
in the district, could increase the likelihood
of disease.
1. Rosegrant & Cline, 2003; AIACC, 2004; Turpie et al, 2002; The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al, 2002; Swaminathan, 2000.
2. The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al., 2002.
3. Turpie et al, 2002; AU, 2005.
4. Turpie et al, 2002; Mano et al, 2003; Piot & Pinstrup-Andersen, 2002; van Lieshout et al, 2004; Gommes et al, 2004; USAID, 2003.
5. Brooks et al, 2005; AIACC, 2004; Gregory et al, 2005; Thomas & Twyman, 2005; O'Brien, 2006; Adger & Vincent, 2005.
6. The Royal Society, 2005.
7. Gommes et al, 2004; Schulze et al, 2001; Swaminathan, 2000.
Above: Hillcrest AIDS Centre Trust community food garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
21. DoA (2006).
22. Jarvis et al (2006).
23. Schulze (2005a).
24. Meadows & Hoffman (2003).
Nutrient access
1. Direct effect on the nutrient content of foods,
including protein contents, gluten content of grains,
and toxin levels from pests and diseases.6
2. Direct effect on human health and thus ability
to absorb nutrients through increasing vunerability
to disease (such as AIDS and malaria).7
Climate change
and
food security
12 13
Figure two: Links between
climate change in Africa and
three major components of
food security (this synthesis
first appeared in published
form in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report).
Food availability
1. Direct effect on crop yields (cereals,
vegitables, fruits and edible oils), rangelands
and meat production, fisheries and wild food
sources; through elevated CO2 levels,
variations in temperature and precipitation,
and length of growing season, increases in
crop pests and diseases and altering soil
fertility (eg desiccation and salination)1
2. Indirect environmental feedbacks through
responses such as use of marginal lands
increasing degradation and influencing
micro - and macro climates.2
Food access
1. Direct impact on agricultural zones
affecting incomes and jobs, and the macro
economy, which in turn shape livelihoods in
number of ways, eg forms of social protection.3
2. Direct effect on human health and susceptibility
to diseases such as malaria and AIDS which
undermine livelihoods capability and food security.4
3. Indirect alterations to social economic aspects
of livelihoods, food systems and development
processes through human responses, eg
land use and adaption responses.5
6.2 Crop production
2001 census data indicate that nearly
95% of the district’s population are rural
dwellers, and many households in
Umkhanyakude rely at least partially
on subsistence agriculture to meet some
of their food requirements. Hlabisa is
the municipality in which subsistence
agriculture is the most wide-spread,
covering most of the municipality.
In the Big Five False Bay municipality,
there are large areas under commercial
and subsistence agriculture.21
One of the greatest difficulties in
considering the impact of climate change
on agriculture is that crop and vegetation
responses to change have been projected
to be highly localised. For the majority of
cultivated land, the most likely best-case
scenario is that small reductions in yield
will occur.22
The most recent climate projections for
the country suggest that rain-fed agriculture
in Umkhanyakude is likely to be negatively
affected due to lower annual rainfall, higher
temperatures, increased hydrological risk,
increased rainfall variability, drying of top
soils, less water in the soil for plants, and
increased irrigation requirements.23 Such
a change may have serious implications
for food security and livelihoods locally
and nationally.
6.3 Rangelands
South Africa has extensive land
degradation challenges. Much of the land
covered by the Umkhanyakude district is
estimated to suffer from light to moderate
combined soil and veldt degradation. The
former homeland areas — which include
the Umkhanyakude district — are estimated
to be the most susceptible to further
degradation in the face of climate change.24
6.4 Human health
The links between health and food security
Food insecurity and poor health are closely
related. Food insecurity may lead to a state
of malnutrition which impairs physical
functioning, compromises the ability to
work, and affects development processes
such as growth (height and weight),
pregnancy and foetal development,
lactation, and resistance to and recovery
from disease. In turn, disease prevents
people from being able to invest in the
human capital necessary to avoiding
food insecurity, for example the capacity
to develop successful responses and
adaptations to vulnerability.
The choice, preparation and intake of
food are influenced by food access and
availability, education, culture, and food
preferences. It necessitates access to
clean water, and is also highly influenced by
access to refrigeration, sanitation and other
resources. The effects of climate change
described above, in which there is likely to
be reduced water for drinking and sanitation
in the district, could increase the likelihood
of disease.
1. Rosegrant & Cline, 2003; AIACC, 2004; Turpie et al, 2002; The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al, 2002; Swaminathan, 2000.
2. The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al., 2002.
3. Turpie et al, 2002; AU, 2005.
4. Turpie et al, 2002; Mano et al, 2003; Piot & Pinstrup-Andersen, 2002; van Lieshout et al, 2004; Gommes et al, 2004; USAID, 2003.
5. Brooks et al, 2005; AIACC, 2004; Gregory et al, 2005; Thomas & Twyman, 2005; O'Brien, 2006; Adger & Vincent, 2005.
6. The Royal Society, 2005.
7. Gommes et al, 2004; Schulze et al, 2001; Swaminathan, 2000.
Above: Hillcrest AIDS Centre Trust community food garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
21. DoA (2006).
22. Jarvis et al (2006).
23. Schulze (2005a).
24. Meadows & Hoffman (2003).
Nutrient access
1. Direct effect on the nutrient content of foods,
including protein contents, gluten content of grains,
and toxin levels from pests and diseases.6
2. Direct effect on human health and thus ability
to absorb nutrients through increasing vunerability
to disease (such as AIDS and malaria).7
Climate change
and
food security
14 1514 15
Climate related diseases
A number of climate-mediated diseases
exist, and climate has impacts on human
health beyond affecting sanitation, drinking
water and food. In general, warmer and
more extreme climate shifts are likely
to exacerbate disease and health risks.25
Changes in climate have the potential
to exacerbate:
•mortalityamongthosewhoaresick,
old or weak through illness due to extreme
heat or cold, which also has implications
for maternal health;
•airpollution;
•aero-allergens;
•fungiandmoulds;
•water-andfood-bornediseases,
for example, giardia, cholera,
cryptosporidium, rotaviruses,
enteroviruses, coxsackie viruses,
cyclospora, and hepatitis A and E viruses;
•seasonalinfluenza;
•rodent-bornedisease;and
•changesindistributionofinsectvectors
of disease, for example, malaria.
In general, Umkhanyakude might expect to
see increases in illness or mortality related
to higher temperatures, water-borne
diseases, and malaria.
Cholera
A recent study in KwaZulu-Natal
demonstrates the widespread primary
and secondary impacts that climate change
might have on aspects of human health and
disease risk. While cholera is associated
with a number of anthropogenic factors,
including poor sanitation and overcrowding,
climate-related environmental factors affect
the survival of environmental reservoirs of
the pathogen that causes cholera outbreaks.
Malaria
The incidence and transmission of malaria
is largely limited by climate. Seasonal
changes (inter-annual changes) in the
number of cases of malaria in KwaZulu-
Natal have been found to be significantly
associated with several climate variables.26
Rainfall variability, humidity and standing
water affect the water available for
breading. Small differences in climate
were found to have marked effects on
the intensity of malaria transmission,
even in areas subject to malaria control
for many years.27
Moreover, both drug resistance and levels
of HIV infection have been found to be
particularly significant factors in the
incidence of malaria. A 2005 study found
estimated proportional increases of 28%
for malaria incidence and 114% for malaria
deaths across southern Africa due to the
impact of HIV.28 Increased malaria would
have extensive repercussions for
livelihoods and resilience, and would
also result in a considerable burden
on health services.
Other vector-borne diseases
Africa is susceptible to a number of
vector-borne diseases over and above
malaria. These include diseases such
as schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis,
trypanosomiasis, yellow fever and
tick-borne haemorrhagic fevers.29 South
Africa has been found to be one of the most
vulnerable countries in Africa to climate-
induced changes in tick distributions and
tick-borne diseases.30 These changes are
likely to herald an associated increase in
numerous tick-borne pathogens which
infect livestock and people.
Left: Collecting water at Ingwavuma Orphan Care. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
25. Comrie (2007).
26. Craig et al (2004b).
27. Kleinschmidt et al (2001).
28. Korenromp et al (2005).
29. Githeko et al (2000).
30. Olwoch (2005).
14 1514 15
Climate related diseases
A number of climate-mediated diseases
exist, and climate has impacts on human
health beyond affecting sanitation, drinking
water and food. In general, warmer and
more extreme climate shifts are likely
to exacerbate disease and health risks.25
Changes in climate have the potential
to exacerbate:
•mortalityamongthosewhoaresick,
old or weak through illness due to extreme
heat or cold, which also has implications
for maternal health;
•airpollution;
•aero-allergens;
•fungiandmoulds;
•water-andfood-bornediseases,
for example, giardia, cholera,
cryptosporidium, rotaviruses,
enteroviruses, coxsackie viruses,
cyclospora, and hepatitis A and E viruses;
•seasonalinfluenza;
•rodent-bornedisease;and
•changesindistributionofinsectvectors
of disease, for example, malaria.
In general, Umkhanyakude might expect to
see increases in illness or mortality related
to higher temperatures, water-borne
diseases, and malaria.
Cholera
A recent study in KwaZulu-Natal
demonstrates the widespread primary
and secondary impacts that climate change
might have on aspects of human health and
disease risk. While cholera is associated
with a number of anthropogenic factors,
including poor sanitation and overcrowding,
climate-related environmental factors affect
the survival of environmental reservoirs of
the pathogen that causes cholera outbreaks.
Malaria
The incidence and transmission of malaria
is largely limited by climate. Seasonal
changes (inter-annual changes) in the
number of cases of malaria in KwaZulu-
Natal have been found to be significantly
associated with several climate variables.26
Rainfall variability, humidity and standing
water affect the water available for
breading. Small differences in climate
were found to have marked effects on
the intensity of malaria transmission,
even in areas subject to malaria control
for many years.27
Moreover, both drug resistance and levels
of HIV infection have been found to be
particularly significant factors in the
incidence of malaria. A 2005 study found
estimated proportional increases of 28%
for malaria incidence and 114% for malaria
deaths across southern Africa due to the
impact of HIV.28 Increased malaria would
have extensive repercussions for
livelihoods and resilience, and would
also result in a considerable burden
on health services.
Other vector-borne diseases
Africa is susceptible to a number of
vector-borne diseases over and above
malaria. These include diseases such
as schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis,
trypanosomiasis, yellow fever and
tick-borne haemorrhagic fevers.29 South
Africa has been found to be one of the most
vulnerable countries in Africa to climate-
induced changes in tick distributions and
tick-borne diseases.30 These changes are
likely to herald an associated increase in
numerous tick-borne pathogens which
infect livestock and people.
Left: Collecting water at Ingwavuma Orphan Care. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
25. Comrie (2007).
26. Craig et al (2004b).
27. Kleinschmidt et al (2001).
28. Korenromp et al (2005).
29. Githeko et al (2000).
30. Olwoch (2005).
16
KwaZulu-Natal holds about one sixth
of South Africa’s remaining indigenous
forest, and is unique in that it supports
both the major forest types of the southern
African subcontinent — Afromontane forest
and Indian Ocean coastal belt forest —
and their eight subtypes.33 The province
is thus important for maintaining forest
diversity, and thus the biodiversity in
South Africa. Umkhanyakude contains
several areas comprising more than
50 hectares of indigenous forest,
representing all eight subtypes.
Importance of biodiversity
Ecosystems and their biodiversity offer a
number of “services” for human wellbeing
including provisioning services, such
as game, wild foods, fodder and fibre;
regulating services, such as climate and
water regulation, air and water purification,
disease and pest regulation and protection
from natural hazards such as floods; and
cultural services, which satisfy human
spiritual and aesthetic needs.34
Indigenous forest is a critical element
in the maintenance of biodiversity and
provides an important livelihood resource
for many KwaZulu-Natal communities.
6.6 Sea levels
Changes in sea level are expected to
affect beaches, cliffs, deltas, estuaries
and lagoons, mangroves and coral reefs.
Major impacts are expected on freshwater
availability (for example from affected
groundwater resources), fisheries, health,
recreation and tourism, biodiversity and
human settlements resulting from extreme
events, flooding, seawater temperature
changes, rising water tables, and salt
water intrusions.35
While the exact biophysical and human
impacts on the Umkhanyakude district are
not yet known, scientists are confident that
livelihoods in coastal areas of developing
countries are more vulnerable to the
impacts of sea-level rises than those in
developed countries.36 The impact on the
coast of KwaZulu-Natal is likely to be
largely erosion of the coastline.37
6.7 Tourism
Climate change is expected to have a
significant impact on the tourism sector,
which will have associated impacts on
livelihoods in Umkhanyakude through
effects on employment and incomes.
The coastal areas of Umkhanyakude
are some of the most pristine dune
environments in the world, and their
erosion would be a significant loss in
terms of tourism and livelihoods.
The impacts on tourism and livelihoods for
South Africa that will accrue from factors
such as loss of biodiversity and sea level
changes are not yet possible to quantify.38
6.8 Natural disasters
There is wide agreement that climate
change will result in an increased risk
of frequency and intensity of droughts
and floods in southern Africa.39 The
observations of farmers and development
practitioners as well as policy makers and
planners to some extent support that
drought frequency is increasing in southern
Africa as well as South Africa.
Highly variable rainfall between years is
already a natural feature of South African
rainfall patterns, and much of the country
has always been affected by aridity,
droughts and floods.40 The climate impacts
predicted for Umkhanyakude suggest
increased deviations in annual precipitation
from the average. There is also predicted
to be an increase in extreme rainfall days.41
6.5 Degradation of biodiversity
Changes in biodiversity in South Africa
The ability of many ecosystems to adapt
naturally is likely to be exceeded by a
combination of global change drivers
(such as land-use change) and climate
change.31 This will be associated with a high
risk of extinction of many plant and animal
species. Aquatic ecosystems, including
wetlands, are in the worst condition:
about 54% of rivers in South Africa are
considered endangered, more than 50% of
wetlands have already been destroyed, and
about 34% of terrestrial ecosystems are
considered threatened.32
Above: Visiting one of the child headed households in the Kwamandonya district, volunteers meet with the eldest member of the household to discuss how they are doing and how their situation can be improved on. These types of households are indicative of the poverty in the district highlighting the vulnerabilities experienced within the community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
31. Fischlin et al (2007).
32. DEAT (2006).
33. Eeley et al (1999).
34. Fischlin et al (2007).
35. Nicholls et al (2007).
35. Nicholls et al (2007).
36. Ibid.
37. Turpie et al (2002).
38. Ibid.
39. Boardley & Schulze (2005); Reid et al (2005).
40. Schulze (2005d).
41. Schulze (2005b).
17
16
KwaZulu-Natal holds about one sixth
of South Africa’s remaining indigenous
forest, and is unique in that it supports
both the major forest types of the southern
African subcontinent — Afromontane forest
and Indian Ocean coastal belt forest —
and their eight subtypes.33 The province
is thus important for maintaining forest
diversity, and thus the biodiversity in
South Africa. Umkhanyakude contains
several areas comprising more than
50 hectares of indigenous forest,
representing all eight subtypes.
Importance of biodiversity
Ecosystems and their biodiversity offer a
number of “services” for human wellbeing
including provisioning services, such
as game, wild foods, fodder and fibre;
regulating services, such as climate and
water regulation, air and water purification,
disease and pest regulation and protection
from natural hazards such as floods; and
cultural services, which satisfy human
spiritual and aesthetic needs.34
Indigenous forest is a critical element
in the maintenance of biodiversity and
provides an important livelihood resource
for many KwaZulu-Natal communities.
6.6 Sea levels
Changes in sea level are expected to
affect beaches, cliffs, deltas, estuaries
and lagoons, mangroves and coral reefs.
Major impacts are expected on freshwater
availability (for example from affected
groundwater resources), fisheries, health,
recreation and tourism, biodiversity and
human settlements resulting from extreme
events, flooding, seawater temperature
changes, rising water tables, and salt
water intrusions.35
While the exact biophysical and human
impacts on the Umkhanyakude district are
not yet known, scientists are confident that
livelihoods in coastal areas of developing
countries are more vulnerable to the
impacts of sea-level rises than those in
developed countries.36 The impact on the
coast of KwaZulu-Natal is likely to be
largely erosion of the coastline.37
6.7 Tourism
Climate change is expected to have a
significant impact on the tourism sector,
which will have associated impacts on
livelihoods in Umkhanyakude through
effects on employment and incomes.
The coastal areas of Umkhanyakude
are some of the most pristine dune
environments in the world, and their
erosion would be a significant loss in
terms of tourism and livelihoods.
The impacts on tourism and livelihoods for
South Africa that will accrue from factors
such as loss of biodiversity and sea level
changes are not yet possible to quantify.38
6.8 Natural disasters
There is wide agreement that climate
change will result in an increased risk
of frequency and intensity of droughts
and floods in southern Africa.39 The
observations of farmers and development
practitioners as well as policy makers and
planners to some extent support that
drought frequency is increasing in southern
Africa as well as South Africa.
Highly variable rainfall between years is
already a natural feature of South African
rainfall patterns, and much of the country
has always been affected by aridity,
droughts and floods.40 The climate impacts
predicted for Umkhanyakude suggest
increased deviations in annual precipitation
from the average. There is also predicted
to be an increase in extreme rainfall days.41
6.5 Degradation of biodiversity
Changes in biodiversity in South Africa
The ability of many ecosystems to adapt
naturally is likely to be exceeded by a
combination of global change drivers
(such as land-use change) and climate
change.31 This will be associated with a high
risk of extinction of many plant and animal
species. Aquatic ecosystems, including
wetlands, are in the worst condition:
about 54% of rivers in South Africa are
considered endangered, more than 50% of
wetlands have already been destroyed, and
about 34% of terrestrial ecosystems are
considered threatened.32
Above: Visiting one of the child headed households in the Kwamandonya district, volunteers meet with the eldest member of the household to discuss how they are doing and how their situation can be improved on. These types of households are indicative of the poverty in the district highlighting the vulnerabilities experienced within the community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
31. Fischlin et al (2007).
32. DEAT (2006).
33. Eeley et al (1999).
34. Fischlin et al (2007).
35. Nicholls et al (2007).
35. Nicholls et al (2007).
36. Ibid.
37. Turpie et al (2002).
38. Ibid.
39. Boardley & Schulze (2005); Reid et al (2005).
40. Schulze (2005d).
41. Schulze (2005b).
17
18 19
7. Mapping vulnerability
in Umkhanyakude
7.1 Introduction
Because adaptive capacity is an element
of vulnerability, the indicators used to
“measure” vulnerability to climate change
(in terms of exposure to risk) and the
capacity to adapt to it are frequently similar.
Factors that are typically considered
determinants of vulnerability include
economic wellbeing and stability,
demographic structure, institutional
stability and wellbeing, and the connections
between individuals, communities and
institutions beyond the local level and
the ability to help shape policy.42 Similarly,
adaptive capacity is considered a function
of factors such as economic wellbeing,
education and skills, information access
and access to other resources,
infrastructure, and institutional issues.43
Recent research fielding expert opinion
on the effects of climate change on human
health, for example, found that experts
regarded per capita income, inequality
in the distribution of income, universal
healthcare coverage, and high access to
information as important determinants of
the capacity to adapt to climate change.44
7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability
Index (UVI)
The indicators
Table one summarises the factors that
are included in a vulnerability index for
Umkhanyakude district. These were
developed through drawing on the
vulnerability literature, but choices
were necessarily also determined by
available information.
Notes: The figures in brackets indicate the
percentage contribution of each indicator
to its broad component of the UVI, and the
percentage contribution of each broad
component to the overall index.
These indicators represent primarily
“internal” factors that determine the
sensitivity of people to hazards, including
climate change, and their capacity to
respond and adapt.45 The “external” or
exposure factors might include, in addition
to climate changes, national policies,
national economic issues and global
policies.46 However, it would be too
complex to include such external factors
in a map of this scale.
Each broad component of vulnerability
in the table contributes a given percentage
to the composite index.47 This percentage
is based on a theoretical understanding
of that component’s relative importance to
vulnerability, based on an understanding
of the dynamics of vulnerability in
KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the wider
literature on vulnerability, and uncertainties
regarding the importance of the indicators
the literature.
Table one: Breakdown of the Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)
Broad determinants of vulnerability,
and components of the UVI
Indicators Description Data source
Broad determinants of vulnerability,
and components of the UVIClinics (15%)
Ratio of population to clinics. Calculated at municipal level since
many wards have no clinics, and some clinics fall on ward boundaries.Department of Health
Interconnectivity (20%)Schools (15%)
Ratio of population under 18 years to schools.
Calculated at municipal level since many schools fall on ward boundaries.Department of Education
Education (50%) Percentage of adults with no high school education. Census 2001
Road access (20%) Ratio of total population to km of road per square km area. Knowledge Factory 2006
Economic wellbeing (25%) Poverty (50%) Percentage of households in each ward with no income. Census 2001
Employment (50%) Percentage of unemployed adults in each ward. Census 2001
Health and security (25%) Malnutrition (10%)
Percentage below average height-for-age. This only contributed
10% as the data were available only at municipal level, not ward level.
Human Sciences Resource
Council (HSRC) 2007
Sanitation (10%) Percentage of people in each ward without flushing toilets or pit latrines. Census 2001
Access to
potable water (20%)
Percentage of people in each ward without access to piped water
within the dwelling, within the yard, or on a community stand within
200m from house.
Census 2001
Water-borne
disease risk (20%)
Percentage of people in each ward relying on water from a river,
stream, dam, pool or stagnant source.Census 2001
Orphans (20%)Percentage of children (below age 15) in each ward who responded
“no” to the question “Is your mother alive?” in the 2001 census.Census 2001
Informal housing (20%) Percentage of households living in informal housing or shack. Census 2001
Demographic structure (20%) Age distribution (60%) Ratio of children under 15 and adults over 65 to adults (over 18yrs). Census 2001
Gender ratio (40%) Percentage of female- to male-headed households in each ward. Census 2001
Natural resource dependence (10%) Employment in
agricultural sector (50%)
Percentage of adults employed in agricultural, hunting, forestry
and fishing sectors in each ward.Census 2001
42. Vincent (2004).
43. O’Brien et al (2004).
44. Alberini et al (2006)
45. Adger (2006); Fussel (2005).
46. Fussel (2005).
47. Vincent (2004); Vincent (2007).
7. Mapping vulnerability
18 19
7. Mapping vulnerability
in Umkhanyakude
7.1 Introduction
Because adaptive capacity is an element
of vulnerability, the indicators used to
“measure” vulnerability to climate change
(in terms of exposure to risk) and the
capacity to adapt to it are frequently similar.
Factors that are typically considered
determinants of vulnerability include
economic wellbeing and stability,
demographic structure, institutional
stability and wellbeing, and the connections
between individuals, communities and
institutions beyond the local level and
the ability to help shape policy.42 Similarly,
adaptive capacity is considered a function
of factors such as economic wellbeing,
education and skills, information access
and access to other resources,
infrastructure, and institutional issues.43
Recent research fielding expert opinion
on the effects of climate change on human
health, for example, found that experts
regarded per capita income, inequality
in the distribution of income, universal
healthcare coverage, and high access to
information as important determinants of
the capacity to adapt to climate change.44
7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability
Index (UVI)
The indicators
Table one summarises the factors that
are included in a vulnerability index for
Umkhanyakude district. These were
developed through drawing on the
vulnerability literature, but choices
were necessarily also determined by
available information.
Notes: The figures in brackets indicate the
percentage contribution of each indicator
to its broad component of the UVI, and the
percentage contribution of each broad
component to the overall index.
These indicators represent primarily
“internal” factors that determine the
sensitivity of people to hazards, including
climate change, and their capacity to
respond and adapt.45 The “external” or
exposure factors might include, in addition
to climate changes, national policies,
national economic issues and global
policies.46 However, it would be too
complex to include such external factors
in a map of this scale.
Each broad component of vulnerability
in the table contributes a given percentage
to the composite index.47 This percentage
is based on a theoretical understanding
of that component’s relative importance to
vulnerability, based on an understanding
of the dynamics of vulnerability in
KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the wider
literature on vulnerability, and uncertainties
regarding the importance of the indicators
the literature.
Table one: Breakdown of the Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)
Broad determinants of vulnerability,
and components of the UVI
Indicators Description Data source
Broad determinants of vulnerability,
and components of the UVIClinics (15%)
Ratio of population to clinics. Calculated at municipal level since
many wards have no clinics, and some clinics fall on ward boundaries.Department of Health
Interconnectivity (20%)Schools (15%)
Ratio of population under 18 years to schools.
Calculated at municipal level since many schools fall on ward boundaries.Department of Education
Education (50%) Percentage of adults with no high school education. Census 2001
Road access (20%) Ratio of total population to km of road per square km area. Knowledge Factory 2006
Economic wellbeing (25%) Poverty (50%) Percentage of households in each ward with no income. Census 2001
Employment (50%) Percentage of unemployed adults in each ward. Census 2001
Health and security (25%) Malnutrition (10%)
Percentage below average height-for-age. This only contributed
10% as the data were available only at municipal level, not ward level.
Human Sciences Resource
Council (HSRC) 2007
Sanitation (10%) Percentage of people in each ward without flushing toilets or pit latrines. Census 2001
Access to
potable water (20%)
Percentage of people in each ward without access to piped water
within the dwelling, within the yard, or on a community stand within
200m from house.
Census 2001
Water-borne
disease risk (20%)
Percentage of people in each ward relying on water from a river,
stream, dam, pool or stagnant source.Census 2001
Orphans (20%)Percentage of children (below age 15) in each ward who responded
“no” to the question “Is your mother alive?” in the 2001 census.Census 2001
Informal housing (20%) Percentage of households living in informal housing or shack. Census 2001
Demographic structure (20%) Age distribution (60%) Ratio of children under 15 and adults over 65 to adults (over 18yrs). Census 2001
Gender ratio (40%) Percentage of female- to male-headed households in each ward. Census 2001
Natural resource dependence (10%) Employment in
agricultural sector (50%)
Percentage of adults employed in agricultural, hunting, forestry
and fishing sectors in each ward.Census 2001
42. Vincent (2004).
43. O’Brien et al (2004).
44. Alberini et al (2006)
45. Adger (2006); Fussel (2005).
46. Fussel (2005).
47. Vincent (2004); Vincent (2007).
7. Mapping vulnerability
20 21
Method of developing the UVI
The smallest scale at which the above
data was consistently available was at ward
level. In creating the UVI, values for each
indicator and each ward were extracted.
All indicators were standardised so that
the highest value in the range equated to 1,
and the lowest value in the range equated
to 0. In some cases this involved a
transformation of the data so that the
highest figure always equated to the
greatest vulnerability. These values were
then summed to make up the six broad
components, contributing the stated
percentages to the total. In turn, each
component was summed to contribute its
stated percentage to the overall UVI for
each ward. The summed figures for the
wards were then ranked as a percentage of
the whole data set, thus returning a number
indicating the overall vulnerability of each
ward relative to other wards (figure three).
It is important to emphasise that the UVI
is not an absolute measure of vulnerability,
but rather an indicator of relative
vulnerability between wards in the
Umkhanyakude district. The whole of
the Umkhanyakude district is considered
economically and socially vulnerable;
the aim of this mapping is to give some
indication of relative vulnerability,
suggesting which wards may be more or
less vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change than others.
Two factors that would have been ideal
to include in the UVI had to be omitted.
These were HIV and AIDS which would
have contributed to the health and security
component, and environmental sensitivity
which would have been included among
the broad components of vulnerability.
HIV and AIDS were omitted because no
data are available below provincial level.
Land degradation would have been the
indicator selected for environmental
sensitivity. However, in some wards
some of the area is classified as “severely
degraded” while other land within the
same ward is classified as only “marginally
degraded” or even “good”. Creating
an average figure for each ward would
therefore not have been meaningful.
Below: Orphaned children who come to the centre once a day to have a good meal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
48. As noted earlier, at the time of writing the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The old name is used in the maps, however, since these were compiled prior to the name change.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
uMkhanykudeUVI Index 52702015 52702016
52702013
52702014
52702011
52702012
52701008
52701008 52701004
52702010
52701007
52702005
5270200252702004
52702003
52702001
52704006
52704005
52703003
52704007
52704006
52704009
5270401052704011
52704019
5270401852704017
52704012
52705003
5270401552704016
5270401352704014
52705005
5270500452705001
52705002
NYALAZI RIVER
MTHETHWA
HLABISA NS/NU
SOMKELE
HLABISA
UBATUBA
HLUHLUWE
UBOMBO (NATAL)
UBOMBO NS/NU
MKUZE
MBAZWANA
INGWAVUMA
NDUMO
INGWAVUMA NS/NU
JOZINI
EMANGUSI
MAPUTA
RIVER VIEW
ST.LUCIA ESTUARY
KWAMSAME
20 10 0
Kilometers
20
5270400452704003
52704001
52704002
52799000
52799000
52799000
52799000
52703002
52703001
52703004
52701002 52701003
52701005
52702009
52702006
52702008
52702007
5270101252701010
52701011
52701009JoziniJozini
UmhlabuyalinganaUmhlabuyalingana
St Lucia ParkSt Lucia Park
St Lucia ParkSt Lucia Park
Legend
Municipality
0.000 - 0.200
0.201 - 0.300
0.301 - 0.400
0.401 - 0.500
0.501 - 0.600
0.601 - 0.700
0.701 - 0.800
0.801 - 1.000
Towns
St Lucia ParkSt Lucia Park
HlabisaHlabisa
MtubatubaMtubatuba
The Big 5 False BayThe Big 5 False Bay
N
Figure three:
The Umkhanyakude
Vulnerability Index (UVI). 48
20 21
Method of developing the UVI
The smallest scale at which the above
data was consistently available was at ward
level. In creating the UVI, values for each
indicator and each ward were extracted.
All indicators were standardised so that
the highest value in the range equated to 1,
and the lowest value in the range equated
to 0. In some cases this involved a
transformation of the data so that the
highest figure always equated to the
greatest vulnerability. These values were
then summed to make up the six broad
components, contributing the stated
percentages to the total. In turn, each
component was summed to contribute its
stated percentage to the overall UVI for
each ward. The summed figures for the
wards were then ranked as a percentage of
the whole data set, thus returning a number
indicating the overall vulnerability of each
ward relative to other wards (figure three).
It is important to emphasise that the UVI
is not an absolute measure of vulnerability,
but rather an indicator of relative
vulnerability between wards in the
Umkhanyakude district. The whole of
the Umkhanyakude district is considered
economically and socially vulnerable;
the aim of this mapping is to give some
indication of relative vulnerability,
suggesting which wards may be more or
less vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change than others.
Two factors that would have been ideal
to include in the UVI had to be omitted.
These were HIV and AIDS which would
have contributed to the health and security
component, and environmental sensitivity
which would have been included among
the broad components of vulnerability.
HIV and AIDS were omitted because no
data are available below provincial level.
Land degradation would have been the
indicator selected for environmental
sensitivity. However, in some wards
some of the area is classified as “severely
degraded” while other land within the
same ward is classified as only “marginally
degraded” or even “good”. Creating
an average figure for each ward would
therefore not have been meaningful.
Below: Orphaned children who come to the centre once a day to have a good meal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
48. As noted earlier, at the time of writing the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The old name is used in the maps, however, since these were compiled prior to the name change.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
uMkhanykudeUVI Index 52702015 52702016
52702013
52702014
52702011
52702012
52701008
52701008 52701004
52702010
52701007
52702005
5270200252702004
52702003
52702001
52704006
52704005
52703003
52704007
52704006
52704009
5270401052704011
52704019
5270401852704017
52704012
52705003
5270401552704016
5270401352704014
52705005
5270500452705001
52705002
NYALAZI RIVER
MTHETHWA
HLABISA NS/NU
SOMKELE
HLABISA
UBATUBA
HLUHLUWE
UBOMBO (NATAL)
UBOMBO NS/NU
MKUZE
MBAZWANA
INGWAVUMA
NDUMO
INGWAVUMA NS/NU
JOZINI
EMANGUSI
MAPUTA
RIVER VIEW
ST.LUCIA ESTUARY
KWAMSAME
20 10 0
Kilometers
20
5270400452704003
52704001
52704002
52799000
52799000
52799000
52799000
52703002
52703001
52703004
52701002 52701003
52701005
52702009
52702006
52702008
52702007
5270101252701010
52701011
52701009JoziniJozini
UmhlabuyalinganaUmhlabuyalingana
St Lucia ParkSt Lucia Park
St Lucia ParkSt Lucia Park
Legend
Municipality
0.000 - 0.200
0.201 - 0.300
0.301 - 0.400
0.401 - 0.500
0.501 - 0.600
0.601 - 0.700
0.701 - 0.800
0.801 - 1.000
Towns
St Lucia ParkSt Lucia Park
HlabisaHlabisa
MtubatubaMtubatuba
The Big 5 False BayThe Big 5 False Bay
N
Figure three:
The Umkhanyakude
Vulnerability Index (UVI). 48
22 2322
The UVI is intended to indicate which wards
are likely to be the most vulnerable to the
negative impacts of climate change across
the district, while the component maps
provide an additional sense of the possible
nature of vulnerability in those wards. While
there are differences in the vulnerability of
wards across Umkhanyakude, figure three
clearly shows that a large percentage of
wards are classified as comparably
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,
and are likely to have poor capacities to
adapt. iSimangaliso Park falls into the most
vulnerable category of the UVI (0.8-1), and
in the most vulnerable categories of all
component indices. iSimangaliso Park
(formerly Greater St Lucia Wetland Park),
which is classified as one ward, is the only
ward to do so. Despite its low population,
the park’s inhabitants fall into the highest
risk category for malnutrition, and the
absence of services in these areas
markedly increase their vulnerability rating.
23
Table two lists all the wards that fall into the
most vulnerable category of the UVI. It also
notes under which component indices these
wards were classified as most vulnerable.
This summary is intended to highlight the
most vulnerable aspects of people’s lives in
the most vulnerable wards. For example, in
ward 52702016 of Jozini municipality, the
demographic structure of households
appears to be the characteristic that makes
households particularly vulnerable. By
contrast, the vulnerability of ward 52704019
in Hlabisa municipality is characterised by
poor interconnectivity, a vulnerable
demographic structure, poor health and
security, as well as a high dependence
on natural resources.
Table two: The most vunerable wards in Umkhanyakude district according to the UVI
In the light of this report as a whole,
it is clear that the majority of communities
in Umkhanyakude are poor and resource-
constrained. Such communities in
KwaZulu-Natal typically face multiple
stresses that limit their livelihoods and
options in the face of change.49 This
makes for complex local dynamics in
assessing vulnerability to climate change,
and developing options of response.
Recent climate research among farmers
in KwaZulu-Natal clearly confirms
this.50 While the vulnerability maps are
not intended to be “desktop guides”
to programming in Umkhanyakude,
they flag particular vulnerabilities
in geographic areas.
Municipalities Wards falling into the most vulnerable UVI category
Inter-connectivity
Economic wellbeing
Health and security
Demo-graphic structure
Natural resource dependency
Land degradation
Jozini 52702015 a a Some minimal
52702016 a Marginal
52702013 a a Marginal
52702008 a Marginal
52702006 a Marginal
Umhlabuya-lingana 52701009 a a a Marginal
52701012 a a a Most moderate
52701001 a a Marginal
52701008 a Most marginal
52701006 a a Marginal
52701007 a a Marginal
Hlabisa 52704003 a a Mixed
52704004 a a Mixed
52704005 a a Mixed
52704007 a a Mixed
52704008 a a Mixed
52704010 a a Mostly poor
52704019 a a a a Mixed
52704018 a a Mixed
52704012 a a Marginal
Mtubatuba 52705004 a a a a Pristine
iSimangaliso (labelled St Lucia in the maps) 52799000 a a a a a Mixed49. Reid, Massey & Vogel (2005).
50. Ibid.
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in one component index in addition to the UVI
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in two component indices in addition to the UVI
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in three component indices in addition to the UVI
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in four component indices in addition to the UVI
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in all five component indices in addition to the UVI
Ward colour key: Narrow range of vulnerabilities
Wider range of vulnerabilities
22 2322
The UVI is intended to indicate which wards
are likely to be the most vulnerable to the
negative impacts of climate change across
the district, while the component maps
provide an additional sense of the possible
nature of vulnerability in those wards. While
there are differences in the vulnerability of
wards across Umkhanyakude, figure three
clearly shows that a large percentage of
wards are classified as comparably
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,
and are likely to have poor capacities to
adapt. iSimangaliso Park falls into the most
vulnerable category of the UVI (0.8-1), and
in the most vulnerable categories of all
component indices. iSimangaliso Park
(formerly Greater St Lucia Wetland Park),
which is classified as one ward, is the only
ward to do so. Despite its low population,
the park’s inhabitants fall into the highest
risk category for malnutrition, and the
absence of services in these areas
markedly increase their vulnerability rating.
23
Table two lists all the wards that fall into the
most vulnerable category of the UVI. It also
notes under which component indices these
wards were classified as most vulnerable.
This summary is intended to highlight the
most vulnerable aspects of people’s lives in
the most vulnerable wards. For example, in
ward 52702016 of Jozini municipality, the
demographic structure of households
appears to be the characteristic that makes
households particularly vulnerable. By
contrast, the vulnerability of ward 52704019
in Hlabisa municipality is characterised by
poor interconnectivity, a vulnerable
demographic structure, poor health and
security, as well as a high dependence
on natural resources.
Table two: The most vunerable wards in Umkhanyakude district according to the UVI
In the light of this report as a whole,
it is clear that the majority of communities
in Umkhanyakude are poor and resource-
constrained. Such communities in
KwaZulu-Natal typically face multiple
stresses that limit their livelihoods and
options in the face of change.49 This
makes for complex local dynamics in
assessing vulnerability to climate change,
and developing options of response.
Recent climate research among farmers
in KwaZulu-Natal clearly confirms
this.50 While the vulnerability maps are
not intended to be “desktop guides”
to programming in Umkhanyakude,
they flag particular vulnerabilities
in geographic areas.
Municipalities Wards falling into the most vulnerable UVI category
Inter-connectivity
Economic wellbeing
Health and security
Demo-graphic structure
Natural resource dependency
Land degradation
Jozini 52702015 a a Some minimal
52702016 a Marginal
52702013 a a Marginal
52702008 a Marginal
52702006 a Marginal
Umhlabuya-lingana 52701009 a a a Marginal
52701012 a a a Most moderate
52701001 a a Marginal
52701008 a Most marginal
52701006 a a Marginal
52701007 a a Marginal
Hlabisa 52704003 a a Mixed
52704004 a a Mixed
52704005 a a Mixed
52704007 a a Mixed
52704008 a a Mixed
52704010 a a Mostly poor
52704019 a a a a Mixed
52704018 a a Mixed
52704012 a a Marginal
Mtubatuba 52705004 a a a a Pristine
iSimangaliso (labelled St Lucia in the maps) 52799000 a a a a a Mixed49. Reid, Massey & Vogel (2005).
50. Ibid.
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in one component index in addition to the UVI
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in two component indices in addition to the UVI
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in three component indices in addition to the UVI
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in four component indices in addition to the UVI
Ward categorised as most vulnerable in all five component indices in addition to the UVI
Ward colour key: Narrow range of vulnerabilities
Wider range of vulnerabilities
24 2524
8. Conclusion
25
In response to climate change vulnerability
in Umkhanyakude, interventions aimed
at enhancing food security must consider
that food security is determined by
agricultural production as well as by
food availability and food markets, food
access, consistency of food supply,
and food utilisation and safety factors.
Vulnerability and adaptive capacity are
profoundly determined by underdevelopment.
Umkhanyakude has a number of particular
risks in this regard, including low levels
of education and literacy, high levels of
unemployment and poverty, and poor
infrastructure and basic services (more
than 75% of households have no basic
sanitation or access to a potable water
supply). High levels of HIV and AIDS,
and numerous orphaned children deepen
the district’s development challenges.
Vulnerability to climate change is
considered a function of exposure,
response and adaptation. In terms
of exposure to future climate-related
risks, a number of vulnerabilities in
Umkhanyakude stand out. Enormous
gaps and uncertainties in the understanding
of climate change and the nature of its
impacts on key areas such as human
health, agriculture, tourism and
ecosystems still exist.
In terms of response, key vulnerabilities
are likely to be a decrease in crop
production potential locally, which will
affect subsistence agriculture, local market
availability and household incomes from
food sales. Possible losses in biodiversity,
including threats to indigenous forests and
conservation areas, will affect wild food
availability and grazing and have negative
impacts on tourism. Further, conflicts of
interest may well arise between the need
to conserve biodiversity in conservation
areas, and other needs such as crops,
grazing, or habitation.
There is a strong two-way relationship
between human health and food insecurity,
and climate change is likely to have a
particular bearing on human health. There
is a likelihood of less water being available
for drinking and sanitation, and thus a
greater risk of water-borne disease. Water
is also necessary for food preparation and
protecting against disease. Further, the
climate is likely to become more suitable
for malaria, with Umkhanyakude being the
most affected district of South Africa.
Like vulnerability, adaptive capacity is
determined by multiple factors. The two
are closely related, and for this reason
when thinking about responses to climate
change, assessments of vulnerability and
adaptive capacity frequently consider
the same or similar factors.
The information provided offers
generalisations about the risks people
in Umkhanyakude are likely to face in
the future, and the factors that need to
be addressed to enhance people’s capacity
to adapt. This report thus provides only
a loose framework in developing
programming and in flagging issues or
areas of particular concern. Successful
programming will depend on the additional,
ongoing input of those that live with
vulnerability, and experience the challenges
of adaptation, together with input from other
stakeholders including government and
non-government practitioners working in
communities in the district .
From the above it is clear that multiple
factors shape people’s food security, and
that the impact of climate change on food
security is highly complex and extends
beyond direct environmental impacts.
Right: School children help to plant and water vegetables at school in KwaZulu-Natal province. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
24 2524
8. Conclusion
25
In response to climate change vulnerability
in Umkhanyakude, interventions aimed
at enhancing food security must consider
that food security is determined by
agricultural production as well as by
food availability and food markets, food
access, consistency of food supply,
and food utilisation and safety factors.
Vulnerability and adaptive capacity are
profoundly determined by underdevelopment.
Umkhanyakude has a number of particular
risks in this regard, including low levels
of education and literacy, high levels of
unemployment and poverty, and poor
infrastructure and basic services (more
than 75% of households have no basic
sanitation or access to a potable water
supply). High levels of HIV and AIDS,
and numerous orphaned children deepen
the district’s development challenges.
Vulnerability to climate change is
considered a function of exposure,
response and adaptation. In terms
of exposure to future climate-related
risks, a number of vulnerabilities in
Umkhanyakude stand out. Enormous
gaps and uncertainties in the understanding
of climate change and the nature of its
impacts on key areas such as human
health, agriculture, tourism and
ecosystems still exist.
In terms of response, key vulnerabilities
are likely to be a decrease in crop
production potential locally, which will
affect subsistence agriculture, local market
availability and household incomes from
food sales. Possible losses in biodiversity,
including threats to indigenous forests and
conservation areas, will affect wild food
availability and grazing and have negative
impacts on tourism. Further, conflicts of
interest may well arise between the need
to conserve biodiversity in conservation
areas, and other needs such as crops,
grazing, or habitation.
There is a strong two-way relationship
between human health and food insecurity,
and climate change is likely to have a
particular bearing on human health. There
is a likelihood of less water being available
for drinking and sanitation, and thus a
greater risk of water-borne disease. Water
is also necessary for food preparation and
protecting against disease. Further, the
climate is likely to become more suitable
for malaria, with Umkhanyakude being the
most affected district of South Africa.
Like vulnerability, adaptive capacity is
determined by multiple factors. The two
are closely related, and for this reason
when thinking about responses to climate
change, assessments of vulnerability and
adaptive capacity frequently consider
the same or similar factors.
The information provided offers
generalisations about the risks people
in Umkhanyakude are likely to face in
the future, and the factors that need to
be addressed to enhance people’s capacity
to adapt. This report thus provides only
a loose framework in developing
programming and in flagging issues or
areas of particular concern. Successful
programming will depend on the additional,
ongoing input of those that live with
vulnerability, and experience the challenges
of adaptation, together with input from other
stakeholders including government and
non-government practitioners working in
communities in the district .
From the above it is clear that multiple
factors shape people’s food security, and
that the impact of climate change on food
security is highly complex and extends
beyond direct environmental impacts.
Right: School children help to plant and water vegetables at school in KwaZulu-Natal province. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
26 2726
9. Glossary
9. Glossary of terms
Adaptation: Adaptation to climate change
describes the adjustment people make
to the things they do, the way they do
them, or to the organisational or physical
elements of their environment in response
to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate.
Biodiversity: Describes the “natural
variety” of an environment, including
the habitat variety, number of species,
interactions between species, and
genetic variation among individuals
within a species.
Climate change: In the context of this
report, this refers to changes in variability
and/or changes in the average state of
climatic conditions over time, caused by
human activities.
Climate variability: In the context of this
report, this refers to “natural” changes in
climate conditions over time, as opposed
to those that are caused by human
activities. This variability may occur from
year to year or in cycles over decades.
Food security: The physical or economic
access of all people at all times to sufficient,
safe and nutritious food to meet their
dietary needs and food preferences for
an active and healthy life.
Human capital: The capability of
individuals residing in their knowledge,
health and skills.
Hydrological cycle: The continuous
movement, as well as conservation,
of water throughout the earth’s system,
including rainfall, run-off, condensation,
evaporation from water surfaces, plant
transpiration, and infiltration into the soil.
Institutions: Organisations founded
formally or informally for a particular body
of work, as well as social rules, customs,
precedents or constant practices that
characterise society.
Malnutrition: Deficiencies and imbalances
in the macro- or micro- nutrient dietary
content, which may lead to abnormalities
and disease.
Social capital: Features of social
organisation, such as networks,
norms and trust; the sum of resources,
actual and virtual, that accrue to an
individual or a group by virtue of possessing
a durable network; and/or less
institutionalised relationships of
mutual acquaintance and recognition.
Vector-borne disease: A disease is one
in which the pathogenic micro-organism
is transmitted from one infected individual
to another by an arthropod (such
as a tick or mosquito) or other agent,
sometimes with other animals serving
as intermediary hosts.
Vulnerability: Reflects the extent to which
a system (or community) reacts adversely
to a crisis or hazardous event. Vulnerability
denotes the likelihood of exposure and
sensitivity to livelihood shocks, thus having
an external component (the shocks
or stresses to which a household or
community are subjected), and an internal
component (the negative response of a
system or inadequate capacity to cope).
Wasting: Children whose weight for
height is significantly below the norm.
27
10. References
10. References
Adger, W. N. & Vincent, K. (2005)
Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. Comptes
Rendus Geoscience, 337, 399–410.
AIACC (2004) Messages from Dakar: Report
of the Second AIACC Regional Workshop
for Africa and the Indian Islands, Senegal,
2004. Assessments of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate Change Project
(AIACC), funded by the Global
Environmental Facility.
Alberini, A., Chiabai, A. & Muehlenbachs,
L. (2006) Using expert judgment to assess
adaptive capacity to climate change:
Evidence from a conjoint choice survey.
Global Environmental Change, 16, 123–144.
Andrews, G., Skinner, D. & Zuma, K. (2006)
Epidemiology of health and vulnerability
among children orphaned and made
vulnerable by HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan
Africa. AIDS Care, 18, 269–276.
AU (2005) Status of Food Security and
Prospects for Agricultural Development in
Africa. AU Ministerial Conference of Ministers
of Agriculture January 31– February 1, 2006.
Bamako, Mali, African Union.
Boardley, S. & Schulze, R. E. (2005)
Chapter Twenty-Two: Why adopt a
vulnerability approach? In Schulze, R. E.
(Ed.) Climate Change and Water Resources
in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios,
Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation.
Pretoria, Water Research Commission.
Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C.,
Githeko, A., Medany, M., Osman-Elasha, B.,
Tabo, R. & Yanda, P. (2007) Africa. In Parry,
M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der
Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.)
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability to Climate Change.
Contribution of Working Group II to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Brooks, N., Adger, W. N. & Kelly, P. M.
(2005) The Determinants of Vulnerability
and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level
and the Implications for Adaptation.
Global Environmental Change, 15, 151–163.
Comrie, A. (2007) Climate Change and
Human Health. Geography Compass,
1/3 2007, 325–339.
Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Le Sueur, D.
& Sharp, B. L. (2004a) Exploring 30 years
of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal,
South Africa: Part II. The impact of non-
climatic factors. Durban, Malaria Research
Programme, Medical Research Council.
Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Nawn, J. B.,
Le Sueur, D. & Sharp, B. L. (2004b)
Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in
KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Part I. The
impact of climatic factors. Tropical Medicine
and International Health, 9, 1247–1257.
Craig, M. H. & Sharp, B. L. (2000)
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment.
Health Section. Part One: Malaria. The
South African Country Studies Report.
National Malaria Research Programme,
Medical Research Council.
DEAT (2006) South Africa Environment
Outlook: A report on the state of the
environment, Pretoria, Department
of Environmental Affairs and Tourism.
DoA (2006) Food Insecurity in
Umkhanyakude: Poster. Data sources:
Department of Agriculture; ARC-ISCW;
Statistics South Africa – GHS (2005); 2001
Census; National Food Consumption Survey
(2000). Human Sciences Research Council.
Eeley, H. A. C., Lawes, M. J. & Piper, S. E.
(1999) The influence of climate change on
the distribution of indigenous forest in
KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Journal of
Biogeography, 26, 595–617.
FAO (2007) Assessment of the World
Food Security Situation. Committee on
World Food Security Thirty-third Session,
7 – 10 May 2007. Rome, Committee on
World Food Security.
Fischlin, A., Midgley, G. F., Price, J. T.,
Leemans, R., Gopal, B., Turley, C.,
Rounsevell, M. D. A., Dube, O. P., Tarazona,
J. & Velichko, A. A. (2007) Ecosystems, their
properties, goods, and services. In Parry, M.
L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der
Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.) Climate
Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Fischer, F., Shah, M. & van Velthuizen, H.
(2002) Climate Change and Agricultural
Vulnerability. A special report, prepared
by the International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis under United Nations
Institutional Contract Agreement No. 1113
on “Climate Change and Agricultural
26 2726
9. Glossary
9. Glossary of terms
Adaptation: Adaptation to climate change
describes the adjustment people make
to the things they do, the way they do
them, or to the organisational or physical
elements of their environment in response
to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate.
Biodiversity: Describes the “natural
variety” of an environment, including
the habitat variety, number of species,
interactions between species, and
genetic variation among individuals
within a species.
Climate change: In the context of this
report, this refers to changes in variability
and/or changes in the average state of
climatic conditions over time, caused by
human activities.
Climate variability: In the context of this
report, this refers to “natural” changes in
climate conditions over time, as opposed
to those that are caused by human
activities. This variability may occur from
year to year or in cycles over decades.
Food security: The physical or economic
access of all people at all times to sufficient,
safe and nutritious food to meet their
dietary needs and food preferences for
an active and healthy life.
Human capital: The capability of
individuals residing in their knowledge,
health and skills.
Hydrological cycle: The continuous
movement, as well as conservation,
of water throughout the earth’s system,
including rainfall, run-off, condensation,
evaporation from water surfaces, plant
transpiration, and infiltration into the soil.
Institutions: Organisations founded
formally or informally for a particular body
of work, as well as social rules, customs,
precedents or constant practices that
characterise society.
Malnutrition: Deficiencies and imbalances
in the macro- or micro- nutrient dietary
content, which may lead to abnormalities
and disease.
Social capital: Features of social
organisation, such as networks,
norms and trust; the sum of resources,
actual and virtual, that accrue to an
individual or a group by virtue of possessing
a durable network; and/or less
institutionalised relationships of
mutual acquaintance and recognition.
Vector-borne disease: A disease is one
in which the pathogenic micro-organism
is transmitted from one infected individual
to another by an arthropod (such
as a tick or mosquito) or other agent,
sometimes with other animals serving
as intermediary hosts.
Vulnerability: Reflects the extent to which
a system (or community) reacts adversely
to a crisis or hazardous event. Vulnerability
denotes the likelihood of exposure and
sensitivity to livelihood shocks, thus having
an external component (the shocks
or stresses to which a household or
community are subjected), and an internal
component (the negative response of a
system or inadequate capacity to cope).
Wasting: Children whose weight for
height is significantly below the norm.
27
10. References
10. References
Adger, W. N. & Vincent, K. (2005)
Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. Comptes
Rendus Geoscience, 337, 399–410.
AIACC (2004) Messages from Dakar: Report
of the Second AIACC Regional Workshop
for Africa and the Indian Islands, Senegal,
2004. Assessments of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate Change Project
(AIACC), funded by the Global
Environmental Facility.
Alberini, A., Chiabai, A. & Muehlenbachs,
L. (2006) Using expert judgment to assess
adaptive capacity to climate change:
Evidence from a conjoint choice survey.
Global Environmental Change, 16, 123–144.
Andrews, G., Skinner, D. & Zuma, K. (2006)
Epidemiology of health and vulnerability
among children orphaned and made
vulnerable by HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan
Africa. AIDS Care, 18, 269–276.
AU (2005) Status of Food Security and
Prospects for Agricultural Development in
Africa. AU Ministerial Conference of Ministers
of Agriculture January 31– February 1, 2006.
Bamako, Mali, African Union.
Boardley, S. & Schulze, R. E. (2005)
Chapter Twenty-Two: Why adopt a
vulnerability approach? In Schulze, R. E.
(Ed.) Climate Change and Water Resources
in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios,
Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation.
Pretoria, Water Research Commission.
Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C.,
Githeko, A., Medany, M., Osman-Elasha, B.,
Tabo, R. & Yanda, P. (2007) Africa. In Parry,
M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der
Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.)
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability to Climate Change.
Contribution of Working Group II to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Brooks, N., Adger, W. N. & Kelly, P. M.
(2005) The Determinants of Vulnerability
and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level
and the Implications for Adaptation.
Global Environmental Change, 15, 151–163.
Comrie, A. (2007) Climate Change and
Human Health. Geography Compass,
1/3 2007, 325–339.
Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Le Sueur, D.
& Sharp, B. L. (2004a) Exploring 30 years
of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal,
South Africa: Part II. The impact of non-
climatic factors. Durban, Malaria Research
Programme, Medical Research Council.
Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Nawn, J. B.,
Le Sueur, D. & Sharp, B. L. (2004b)
Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in
KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Part I. The
impact of climatic factors. Tropical Medicine
and International Health, 9, 1247–1257.
Craig, M. H. & Sharp, B. L. (2000)
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment.
Health Section. Part One: Malaria. The
South African Country Studies Report.
National Malaria Research Programme,
Medical Research Council.
DEAT (2006) South Africa Environment
Outlook: A report on the state of the
environment, Pretoria, Department
of Environmental Affairs and Tourism.
DoA (2006) Food Insecurity in
Umkhanyakude: Poster. Data sources:
Department of Agriculture; ARC-ISCW;
Statistics South Africa – GHS (2005); 2001
Census; National Food Consumption Survey
(2000). Human Sciences Research Council.
Eeley, H. A. C., Lawes, M. J. & Piper, S. E.
(1999) The influence of climate change on
the distribution of indigenous forest in
KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Journal of
Biogeography, 26, 595–617.
FAO (2007) Assessment of the World
Food Security Situation. Committee on
World Food Security Thirty-third Session,
7 – 10 May 2007. Rome, Committee on
World Food Security.
Fischlin, A., Midgley, G. F., Price, J. T.,
Leemans, R., Gopal, B., Turley, C.,
Rounsevell, M. D. A., Dube, O. P., Tarazona,
J. & Velichko, A. A. (2007) Ecosystems, their
properties, goods, and services. In Parry, M.
L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der
Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.) Climate
Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Fischer, F., Shah, M. & van Velthuizen, H.
(2002) Climate Change and Agricultural
Vulnerability. A special report, prepared
by the International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis under United Nations
Institutional Contract Agreement No. 1113
on “Climate Change and Agricultural
28 29
Vulnerability” as a contribution to the World
Summit on Sustainable Development,
Johannesburg 2002.
Freeman, M. & Nkomo, N. (2006)
Guardianship of orphans and vulnerable
children. A survey of current and prospective
South African caregivers. AIDS Care,
18, 302–310.
Fussel, H. M. (2005) Vulnerability in Climate
Change Research: A Comprehensive
Conceptual Framework. University of
California International and Area Studies.
Githeko, A. K., Lindsay, S. W., Confalonieri,
U. E. & Patz, J. A. (2000) Climate change
and vector-borne diseases: a regional
analysis. Bulletin of the World Health
Organisation, 78, 1136-1148.
Gommes, R., du Guerny, J., Glantz, M. H.
& Hsu, L. N. (2004) Climate and HIV/AIDS:
A hotspots analysis for Early Warning Rapid
Response Systems. UNDP, FAO and NCAR.
Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. S. I. & Brklacich,
M. (2005) Climate change and food security.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society B 360, 2139-2148.
IDT (2007) Poverty Eradication: 04
Umkhanyakude DC27. http://www.idt.org.za/.
Independent Development Trust.
Jarvis, A., Fisher, M., P., J., Cook, S. &
Guarino, L. (2006) Agriculture, Risk and
Climate Change. http://www.cgiar.org/
pdf/2006_Jarvis%20and%20others-Ag_
Risk_ClimateChange_2006_FINAL.pdf,
Consultative Group in International
Agricultural Research.
Karumbidza, J. B. (2007) uMkhanyakude:
Livelihood Profile of uMkhanyakude and
Situational Analysis of DSD Services in
the node. Second Draft. South African
Department of Social Development.
Kleinschmidt, I., Sharp, B. L., Clarke, G. P.
Y., Curtis, B. & Fraser, C. (2001) Use of
Generalized Linear Mixed Models in the
Spatial Analysis of Small-Area Malaria
Incidence Rates in KwaZulu Natal, South
Africa. American Journal of Epidemiology,
153, 1213–1221.
Korenromp, E. L., Williams, B. G., De Vlas,
S. J., Gouws, E., Gilks, C. F., Ghys, P. D.
& Nahlen, B. L. (2005) Malaria attributable
to the HIV-1 epidemic, sub-Saharan
Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases,
11, 1410–1419.
Mano, R., Isaacson, B. & Dardel, P. (2003)
Identifying Policy Determinants of Food
Security Response and Recovery in the
SADC Region: The Case of the 2002 Food
Emergency. Keynote paper prepared for the
FANRPAN Regional Dialogue on Agricultural
Recovery, Food Security and Trade Policies
in Southern Africa, Gaborone, Botswana,
26–27 March 2003.
Meadows, M. E. & Hoffman, T. M. (2002)
The Nature, Extent and Causes of Land
Degradation in South Africa; legacy of
the past, lessons for the future? Area, 33,
429–437.
Meadows, M. E. & Hoffman, T. M. (2003)
Land degradation and climate change in
South Africa. The Geographical Journal,
169, 168–177.
Mukheibir, P. & Sparks, D. (2003) Water
resource management and climate change
in South Africa: Visions, driving factors and
sustainable development indicators: Report
for Phase I of the Sustainable Development
and Climate Change project. Energy and
Development Research Centre, University
of Cape Town.
Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., Burkett, V. R.,
Codignotto, J. O., Hay, J. E., McLean, R. F.,
Ragoonaden, S. & Woodroffe, C. D. (2007)
Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In
Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P.,
van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.)
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment
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Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge
University Press.
O’Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U.,
Venema, H., Aandahl, G., Tompkins, H.,
Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nygaarda,
L. & West, J. (2004) Mapping vulnerability to
multiple stressors: climate change and
globalization in India. Global Environmental
Change, 14, 303-313.
Olwoch, J. M. (2005) Climate change and
tick-host relationships in Africa. Faculty of
Natural & Agricultural Sciences. Pretoria,
University of Pretoria.
Piot, P. & Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2002)
2001-2002 IFPRI Annual Report Essay
AIDS: The New Challenge to Food Security.
Washington DC, International Food Policy
Research Institute.
Poulsen, H. (2006) The gendered impact of
HIV/AIDS on education in South Africa and
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Reid, P., Massey, R. & Vogel, C.
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Global Food Security: Challenges and
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28 29
Vulnerability” as a contribution to the World
Summit on Sustainable Development,
Johannesburg 2002.
Freeman, M. & Nkomo, N. (2006)
Guardianship of orphans and vulnerable
children. A survey of current and prospective
South African caregivers. AIDS Care,
18, 302–310.
Fussel, H. M. (2005) Vulnerability in Climate
Change Research: A Comprehensive
Conceptual Framework. University of
California International and Area Studies.
Githeko, A. K., Lindsay, S. W., Confalonieri,
U. E. & Patz, J. A. (2000) Climate change
and vector-borne diseases: a regional
analysis. Bulletin of the World Health
Organisation, 78, 1136-1148.
Gommes, R., du Guerny, J., Glantz, M. H.
& Hsu, L. N. (2004) Climate and HIV/AIDS:
A hotspots analysis for Early Warning Rapid
Response Systems. UNDP, FAO and NCAR.
Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. S. I. & Brklacich,
M. (2005) Climate change and food security.
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Society B 360, 2139-2148.
IDT (2007) Poverty Eradication: 04
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Independent Development Trust.
Jarvis, A., Fisher, M., P., J., Cook, S. &
Guarino, L. (2006) Agriculture, Risk and
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Risk_ClimateChange_2006_FINAL.pdf,
Consultative Group in International
Agricultural Research.
Karumbidza, J. B. (2007) uMkhanyakude:
Livelihood Profile of uMkhanyakude and
Situational Analysis of DSD Services in
the node. Second Draft. South African
Department of Social Development.
Kleinschmidt, I., Sharp, B. L., Clarke, G. P.
Y., Curtis, B. & Fraser, C. (2001) Use of
Generalized Linear Mixed Models in the
Spatial Analysis of Small-Area Malaria
Incidence Rates in KwaZulu Natal, South
Africa. American Journal of Epidemiology,
153, 1213–1221.
Korenromp, E. L., Williams, B. G., De Vlas,
S. J., Gouws, E., Gilks, C. F., Ghys, P. D.
& Nahlen, B. L. (2005) Malaria attributable
to the HIV-1 epidemic, sub-Saharan
Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases,
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Mano, R., Isaacson, B. & Dardel, P. (2003)
Identifying Policy Determinants of Food
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Emergency. Keynote paper prepared for the
FANRPAN Regional Dialogue on Agricultural
Recovery, Food Security and Trade Policies
in Southern Africa, Gaborone, Botswana,
26–27 March 2003.
Meadows, M. E. & Hoffman, T. M. (2002)
The Nature, Extent and Causes of Land
Degradation in South Africa; legacy of
the past, lessons for the future? Area, 33,
429–437.
Meadows, M. E. & Hoffman, T. M. (2003)
Land degradation and climate change in
South Africa. The Geographical Journal,
169, 168–177.
Mukheibir, P. & Sparks, D. (2003) Water
resource management and climate change
in South Africa: Visions, driving factors and
sustainable development indicators: Report
for Phase I of the Sustainable Development
and Climate Change project. Energy and
Development Research Centre, University
of Cape Town.
Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., Burkett, V. R.,
Codignotto, J. O., Hay, J. E., McLean, R. F.,
Ragoonaden, S. & Woodroffe, C. D. (2007)
Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In
Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P.,
van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.)
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge
University Press.
O’Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U.,
Venema, H., Aandahl, G., Tompkins, H.,
Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nygaarda,
L. & West, J. (2004) Mapping vulnerability to
multiple stressors: climate change and
globalization in India. Global Environmental
Change, 14, 303-313.
Olwoch, J. M. (2005) Climate change and
tick-host relationships in Africa. Faculty of
Natural & Agricultural Sciences. Pretoria,
University of Pretoria.
Piot, P. & Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2002)
2001-2002 IFPRI Annual Report Essay
AIDS: The New Challenge to Food Security.
Washington DC, International Food Policy
Research Institute.
Poulsen, H. (2006) The gendered impact of
HIV/AIDS on education in South Africa and
Swaziland: Save the Children's experiences.
Gender & Development, 14, 47–56.
Reid, P., Massey, R. & Vogel, C.
(2005) Chapter Twenty-Five: Climate
and Development:
Experiences of Farmers in KwaZulu-Natal,
South Africa. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.) Climate
Change and Water Resources in Southern
Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts,
Vulnerabilities and Adaptation. Pretoria,
Water Research Commission.
Rosegrant, M. W. & Cline, S. A. (2003)
Global Food Security: Challenges and
Policies. Science, 302, 1917–1919.
The Royal Society (2005) Food crops in
a changing climate: Report of a Royal
Society Discussion Meeting held in April
2005. Royal Society Policy Document 10/05.
The Royal Society.
Schulze, R. E. (2005a) Chapter Eight: The
Southern African Quaternary Catchments
Database: Refinements to, and Links with,
the ACRU System as a Framework for
Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on
Water Resources. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.)
Climate Change and Water Resources
in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios,
Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation.
Pretoria, Water Research Commission.
Schulze, R. E. (2005b) Chapter Nine:
An Assessment of Impacts of Climate
Change on Agrohydrological Responses
over Southern Africa. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.)
Climate Change and Water Resources in
Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios,
Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation.
Pretoria, Water Research Commission.
Schulze, R. E. (2005c) Chapter One:
Looking into the Future: Why Research
Impacts of Possible Climate Change on
Hydrological Responses in Southern Africa?
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10. References
3030
Contact details
30 3130
Oxfam Australia
132 Leicester Street,
Carlton, Victoria, Australia 3053
Telephone +61 3 9289 9444
www.oxfam.org.au
ABN 18 055 208 636
For more information on Oxfam Australia’s
work in South Africa visit Oxfam KIC at
http://hivaids.oxfamkic.org and click
on the “Communities: Oxfam in
South Africa” link.
Right: 95% of the population in UMkhanyakude district are rural dwellers and many households rely at least partially on subsistence agriculture to meet food requirements. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
Back cover: Workers heading home at the end of the day. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
NAMIBIA
UpingtonKimberley
Mafikeng
Klerksdorp
Polokwane
Pretoria
Johannesburg
Nelspruit
Hoedspruit
Bloemfontein
Umtata
Cape TownMossel Bay
Port Elizabeth
East London
Durban
Pietermaritzburg
Hluhluwe
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
ZIMBABWE
NORTHERN CAPE
WESTERN CAPE
EASTERN CAPE
FREE STATE
NORTH WEST GAUTENG
MPUMALANGA
KWAZULUNATAL
INDIANOCEAN
ATLANTICOCEAN
LIMPOPO
3030
Contact details
30 3130
Oxfam Australia
132 Leicester Street,
Carlton, Victoria, Australia 3053
Telephone +61 3 9289 9444
www.oxfam.org.au
ABN 18 055 208 636
For more information on Oxfam Australia’s
work in South Africa visit Oxfam KIC at
http://hivaids.oxfamkic.org and click
on the “Communities: Oxfam in
South Africa” link.
Right: 95% of the population in UMkhanyakude district are rural dwellers and many households rely at least partially on subsistence agriculture to meet food requirements. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
Back cover: Workers heading home at the end of the day. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.
NAMIBIA
UpingtonKimberley
Mafikeng
Klerksdorp
Polokwane
Pretoria
Johannesburg
Nelspruit
Hoedspruit
Bloemfontein
Umtata
Cape TownMossel Bay
Port Elizabeth
East London
Durban
Pietermaritzburg
Hluhluwe
BOTSWANA
LESOTHO
SWAZILAND
ZIMBABWE
NORTHERN CAPE
WESTERN CAPE
EASTERN CAPE
FREE STATE
NORTH WEST GAUTENG
MPUMALANGA
KWAZULUNATAL
INDIANOCEAN
ATLANTICOCEAN
LIMPOPO
Oxfam Australia is part of a global movement of dedicated
people working hard to fight poverty and injustice.
To learn more about Oxfam in action visit www.oxfam.org.au
ISBN 978-1-875870-72-1OXF1
340_
BRO
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