climate change vulnerability in jakarta
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta
Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.
Bandung Institute of Technology
National Council on Climate ChangeRepublic of Indonesia
OUTLINE
Background Objective Basic Concept Data and Methodology Result Analysis Conclusions
Background
Global climate change causes many areas in Indonesia to be vulnerable on its impacts.
Jakarta is projected to be a vulnerable region with high magnitude as compared with the other Indonesia regions.
Up to recent, disaster frequently occurred in Jakarta as impact of pattern change in rainfall.
Objective
Building model to make map of vulnerable index to climate change impacts in Jakarta.
Performing analysis regarding to Jakarta vulnerable index to find the solution as adaptation planning to climate change.
Basic Concept
(IPCC, 2001)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Including VariabilityHuman Interference
MITIGATION
Of Climate Change via
GHG Sources and Sinks
Exposure
Initial Impacts
Of Effects
Autonomous
Adaptations
Residual or
Net Impacts
Planned ADAPTATION
To the Impacts and Vulnerability
Policy Responses
IMP
AC
TS
VU
LNE
RA
BILIT
IES
Vulnerability
‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effect of climate change, including climate
variability and extremes’
Adaptive Capacity AC
‘The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope
with consequences’
Potential Impacts PI
‘All impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without
considering adaptation’
Exposure E
‘The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic
variations’
Sensitivity S
‘The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-
related stimuli.
+ -
+ +
Components of Vulnerability
Data and Methodology
Data required:1. Projection of rainfall, land use change, sea level rise, subsidence, and distribution of population.2. Map of rivers, prosperity
Methodology:1. Projection using Fast Fourier Transform and Least Square Non-Linear on variable parameters. 2. Overlay and analysis using GIS software (Geographical Information System)
Flow of the Work
Variable Parameters -1 Prediction Model
Model Output
Building Spatial Map
Overlay
Variable Parameters -2
Variable Parameters -3
Variable Parameters -4
Variable Parameters -5
Vulnerability Index
Building map of climate change vulnerability
Constant Parameters -1
Constant Parameters -2
Rainfall Variable
Subsidence Variable
Land-use Change Variable
Rivers Constant
Population Distribution Variable
Sea Level Rise
Variable
Prosperity Constant
Projection of Mean Rainfall in Wet Months over Jakarta
Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2010)
100
136
172
208
244
280
316
352
388
424
460
496
532
568
600
mm
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
Projection of Rainfall inJakarta (Wet Months 2015)
100
136
172
208
244
280
316
352
388
424
460
496
532
568
600
mm
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta(Wet Months 2020)
100
136
172
208
244
280
316
352
388
424
460
496
532
568
600
mm
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta(Wet Months 2025)
100
136
172
208
244
280
316
352
388
424
460
496
532
568
600
mm
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta(Wet Months 2030)
100
136
172
208
244
280
316
352
388
424
460
496
532
568
600
mm
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta(Wet Months 2035)
100
136
172
208
244
280
316
352
388
424
460
496
532
568
600
mm
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
Projection of Sea Level Rise at North of Jakarta
2010
Tanjung Priok
Cilincing
North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2015
PademanganTanjung Priok
Koja
Cilincing
North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2020
PademanganTanjung Priok
Koja
Cilincing
North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2025
Penjaringan
PademanganTanjung Priok
Koja
Cilincing
North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2030
Penjaringan
PademanganTanjung Priok
Koja
Cilincing
Soekarno-Hatta AirportNorth
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2035
Penjaringan
PademanganTanjung Priok
Koja
Cilincing
Soekarno-HattaAirportNorth
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
Subsidence in 1982 - 1991
(Hasanuddin, 2008)
Subsidence in 1991 - 1997
(Hasanuddin, 2008)
Population in Jakarta (1972)
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Population in Jakarta (1983)
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Population in Jakarta (1993)
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Population in Jakarta (1998)
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Population in Jakarta (2002)
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Projection of Population in Jakarta (2010)
Sum up of population:8,981,200 people
Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Sum up of population:9,168,500 people
Projection of Population in Jakarta (2015)
Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Sum up of population:9,262,600 people
Projection of Population in Jakarta (2020)
Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Sum up of population:9,259,900 people
Projection of Population in Jakarta (2025)
Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Sum up of population:9,533,550 people
Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005
Projection of Population in Jakarta (2030)
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Projection of Population in Jakarta (2035)
Sum up of population:9,715,575 people
Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005
AIR/SUNGAIFASILITAS UMUMLAHAN TERBUKAPEMUKIMANRAWA, TAMBAK, LAUTSAWAHVEGETASI
Map of Rivers in Jakarta
(Hasanuddin, 2008)
Map of Prosperity in Jakarta
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Index of Prosperity
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
Result:“Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta”2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035
Climate Change Vulnerability in Southeast Asia
Flood
Drought
Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentage of Index Range:
0.0 – 0.2 = 50 %
0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %
0.4 – 0.6 = 30 %
0.6 – 0.8 = 0 %
0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)
2010
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta
2015
(Susandi et. al, 2009)0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentage of Index Range:
0.0 – 0.2 = 30 %
0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %
0.4 – 0.6 = 50 %
0.6 – 0.8 = 0 %
0.8 – 1.0 = 0 %
Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentage of Index Range:
0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %
0.2 – 0.4 = 20 %
0.4 – 0.6 = 40 %
0.6 – 0.8 = 40 %
0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)
2020
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentage of Index Range:
0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %
0.2 – 0.4 = 5 %
0.4 – 0.6 = 30 %
0.6 – 0.8 = 65 %
0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)
2025
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentage of Index Range:
0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %
0.2 – 0.4 = 0 %
0.4 – 0.6 = 10 %
0.6 – 0.8 = 70 %
0.8 – 1.0 = 20 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)
2030
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentage of Index Range:
0.0 – 0.2 = 0 %
0.2 – 0.4 = 0 %
0.4 – 0.6 = 5 %
0.6 – 0.8 = 20 %
0.8 – 1.0 = 75 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035
Adaptation to Climate Change
From North Area
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2010Mangrove 30 % of the distance
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
2015
(Susandi et. al, 2009)0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
From North AreaMangrove 60 % of the distance
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2020
From North AreaMangrove 100 % of the distance
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2025
From North AreaSea Wall 30 % of the distance
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2030
From North AreaSea Wall 60 % of the distance
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035
From North AreaSea Wall 100 % of the distance
From South Area
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2010
Development:
1. Water Resource
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
2015
(Susandi et. al, 2009)0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
From South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2020
From South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
3. Polder
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2025
From South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
3. Polder
4. Networking Pipes
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2030
From South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
3. Polder
4. Networking Pipes
5. More Pipes & Polder
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035
From South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
3. Polder
4. Networking Pipes
5. More Pipes & Polder
Combination From North and South Area
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2010Mangrove 30 % of the distance
Development:
1. Water Resource
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
2015
(Susandi et. al, 2009)0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Mangrove 60 % of the distance
Combination From North and South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2020Mangrove 100 % of the distance
Combination From North and South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
3. Polder
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2025Sea Wall 30 % of the distance
Combination From North and South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
3. Polder
4. Networking Pipes
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2030Sea Wall 60 % of the distance
Combination From North and South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
3. Polder
4. Networking Pipes
5. More Pipes & Polder
Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035Sea Wall 100 % of the distance
Combination From North and South Area
Development:
1. Water Resource
2. Water Collector
3. Polder
4. Networking Pipes
5. More Pipes & Polder
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