research 2008: vulnerability to climate change (2008)

Vulnerability to climate change in Umkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Report written by Dr Alison Misselhorn on behalf of Oxfam Australia

Research 2008

Contents

1. Summary 5

2. Background 6

3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district 7

4 Climate change and vulnerability 9

5. Projected climate change in Umkhanyakude district 10

5.1 Background: climate change research and data 10

5.2 Climate change impacts 10

6. Food security, livelihoods and climate change in Umkhanyakude 11

6.1 Introduction 11

6.2 Crop production 13

6.3 Rangelands 13

6.4 Human health 13

6.5. Degradation of biodiversity 16

6.6 Sea levels 17

6.7 Tourism 17

6.8. Natural disasters 17

7. Mapping vulnerability in Umkhanyakude 18

7.1 Introduction 18

7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI) 18

8. Conclusion 24

9. Glossary of terms 26

10. References 27

Contact details 30

Acknowledgements

Oxfam Australia acknowledges the input

of partners and community members from

the Umkhanyakude Partnership Program

who participated in an earlier research

process that informed the development

of this publication.

Thanks also go to Oxfam Australia staff

in Melbourne and South Africa as well as

editor Cathy Moloney for her contribution.

Left: Elphinia Ngubane is a volunteer for the Simbambisene Community Centre and is seen here working on one of the Ubambo Community food security projects. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

Front Cover: Thandi Diamini standing in her hut made of wood and mud.

Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

Contents

1. Summary 5

2. Background 6

3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district 7

4 Climate change and vulnerability 9

5. Projected climate change in Umkhanyakude district 10

5.1 Background: climate change research and data 10

5.2 Climate change impacts 10

6. Food security, livelihoods and climate change in Umkhanyakude 11

6.1 Introduction 11

6.2 Crop production 13

6.3 Rangelands 13

6.4 Human health 13

6.5. Degradation of biodiversity 16

6.6 Sea levels 17

6.7 Tourism 17

6.8. Natural disasters 17

7. Mapping vulnerability in Umkhanyakude 18

7.1 Introduction 18

7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI) 18

8. Conclusion 24

9. Glossary of terms 26

10. References 27

Contact details 30

Acknowledgements

Oxfam Australia acknowledges the input

of partners and community members from

the Umkhanyakude Partnership Program

who participated in an earlier research

process that informed the development

of this publication.

Thanks also go to Oxfam Australia staff

in Melbourne and South Africa as well as

editor Cathy Moloney for her contribution.

Left: Elphinia Ngubane is a volunteer for the Simbambisene Community Centre and is seen here working on one of the Ubambo Community food security projects. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

Front Cover: Thandi Diamini standing in her hut made of wood and mud.

Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

1. Summary

The impacts of climate change apply

significant risk on top of existing stressors

that characterise the lives of vulnerable

people. In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated

the Umkhanyakude Parternship Program,

a food security program in the

Umkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal

(South Africa) that aims to strengthen food

and nutrition security within the context of

HIV and AIDS in the region. During the

early stages of this program, climate

change was identified as a particular threat

to food security development, and Oxfam

Australia commissioned this report to map

a range of climate-related risks in the

district and assess the vulnerability of

communities to these risks.

Food security is determined by agricultural

production as well as by food availability (eg

food markets); food access (such as being

able to afford to buy food); consistency of

food supply; and food utilisation and safety

factors, which are affected by health and

sanitation. In all municipalities of

Umkhanyakude, except Mtubatuba,

households spend more than half their

income on food which underscores that

food security is determined as much by the

ability to buy food as by the ability to grow

it. It is clear that multiple factors shape

people’s food security, and that the impact

of climate change on food security is highly

complex and extends beyond direct

environmental impacts.

Vulnerability to climate change is profoundly

determined by underdevelopment, and this

is the key challenge that faces the

Umkhanyakude district. The district has a

history of underdevelopment, and is

characterised by abject poverty, high rates

of unemployment, and low levels of literacy

and education. Umkhanyakude has the

highest malaria prevalence in the country,

and HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB)

are the leading causes of morbidity and

mortality. Poor infrastructure and an

absence of basic services are additional

challenges facing the district. Overall,

changes in water resources and the

hydrological system are arguably the most

profound environmental changes expected

with climate change.

There is a strong two-way relationship

between human health and food insecurity.

Water is critical for food preparation and

protecting against disease; with the

likelihood of less water being available for

drinking and sanitation, there is a greater

risk of water-borne disease. The climate

is also likely to become more suitable for

malaria. Rainfall variability, humidity,

standing water, extreme rainfall and rainfall

timing, and extreme temperatures all affect

mosquito larval development, range, and

malarial transmission rates.

Left: Uthoko Nophila and her baby outside their home in Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

1. Summary

The impacts of climate change apply

significant risk on top of existing stressors

that characterise the lives of vulnerable

people. In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated

the Umkhanyakude Parternship Program,

a food security program in the

Umkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal

(South Africa) that aims to strengthen food

and nutrition security within the context of

HIV and AIDS in the region. During the

early stages of this program, climate

change was identified as a particular threat

to food security development, and Oxfam

Australia commissioned this report to map

a range of climate-related risks in the

district and assess the vulnerability of

communities to these risks.

Food security is determined by agricultural

production as well as by food availability (eg

food markets); food access (such as being

able to afford to buy food); consistency of

food supply; and food utilisation and safety

factors, which are affected by health and

sanitation. In all municipalities of

Umkhanyakude, except Mtubatuba,

income on food which underscores that

food security is determined as much by the

ability to buy food as by the ability to grow

it. It is clear that multiple factors shape

people’s food security, and that the impact

of climate change on food security is highly

complex and extends beyond direct

environmental impacts.

Vulnerability to climate change is profoundly

determined by underdevelopment, and this

is the key challenge that faces the

Umkhanyakude district. The district has a

history of underdevelopment, and is

characterised by abject poverty, high rates

of unemployment, and low levels of literacy

and education. Umkhanyakude has the

highest malaria prevalence in the country,

and HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB)

are the leading causes of morbidity and

mortality. Poor infrastructure and an

absence of basic services are additional

challenges facing the district. Overall,

changes in water resources and the

hydrological system are arguably the most

profound environmental changes expected

with climate change.

between human health and food insecurity.

Water is critical for food preparation and

protecting against disease; with the

likelihood of less water being available for

drinking and sanitation, there is a greater

risk of water-borne disease. The climate

is also likely to become more suitable for

malaria. Rainfall variability, humidity,

standing water, extreme rainfall and rainfall

timing, and extreme temperatures all affect

mosquito larval development, range, and

malarial transmission rates.

Left: Uthoko Nophila and her baby outside their home in Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

2. Background

In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated the

Umkhanyakude Partnership Program, with

the aim of strengthening food and nutrition

security within the context of HIV and AIDS

in the region. The food security program

partners identified climate change as one

of the issues that needs to be addressed

within Umkhanyakude. In all municipalities

a number of long-term environmental trends

are occurring. These include increasing

deforestation due to people removing wood

for domestic use which is leading to soil

degradation, increased rainfall variability,

warmer winters, and increased incidence

and length of drought. These in turn are

affecting crop productivity, diversity, quality,

and food security.1

Figure one: The municipalities within

South Africa’s Umkhanyakude district.2

Umkhanyakude District Municipality is one

of KwaZulu-Natal’s 10 district councils and

consists of five local municipalities and one

district-managed area. The 2001 census

estimates a population of some 590,000

people, with the highest dependency ratio

(children under 15 years to adults) and one

of the highest percentages of vulnerable

groups (women, children and the elderly)

of all districts in KwaZulu-Natal. Abject

poverty is experienced by about 77% of the

district’s population.3 The district has the

highest malaria prevalence in the country.

HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) are the

leading causes of morbidity and mortality.4

3. Overview

The northern municipality of

Umhlabuyalingana has the highest levels

of chronic malnutrition and underweight

children, ahead of Hlabisa, which is the

largest municipality in terms of population

size. The municipalities of Mtubatuba, rural

Umkhanyakude (where 62,000 households

are reported to suffer from lack of food) and

The Big Five False Bay show improving

trends in wasting5 indicating a general

improvement in the malnutrition situation.

In all municipalities except Mtubatuba,

income on food, even in areas where crops

are grown intensively. A significant

percentage of income is also spent on

transport due to remoteness from urban

areas and markets (in some municipalities

more than 20% of income is spent

on transport).6

The Integrated Sustainable Rural

Development Programme (ISRDP) forms

part of the South African Government’s

strategy to improve the wellbeing and

opportunities of the rural poor. The first

phase of the ISRDP targets 13 district

municipalities, known as nodes, of which

Umkhanyakude District Municipality is

one. Initial findings indicate that poor

infrastructure and basic services are

some of the key challenges facing the

municipality. More than 60% of households

do not have a telephone connection, less

than 30% of households are connected to

the electricity supply, and more than 75%

of households do not have access to basic

sanitation facilities and a potable water

supply.7 Critical shortages of health facilities

are of great concern considering HIV and

AIDS prevalence is higher in KwaZulu-Natal

than in other South African provinces. HIV

and AIDS prevalence ranges from about

20% to 44% and is estimated to average

between 20% and 30% within

Umkhanyakude district.8

2. At the time of writing, the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The new name is used throughout this report except in the maps which were compiled prior to the name change.

3. Karumbidza (2007).

4. Zondi (2004). 5. Children whose weight for height is significantly

below the norm.

6. DoA (2006). 7. IDT (2007). 8. KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health Annual

Report available at http://www.kznhealth.gov.za/annualreport2002.2003.pdf

Above: Nokhutula Dlamini is 23 years old and looks after four other children in this parentless household. Here she is seen outside in the open with her hut in the background. The Ubombo Centre helps this family by giving them food parcels, school uniforms and paying their school fees. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

1. Sterrett (2007).

3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district

Jozini

Umhlabuyalingana

Hlabisa

St Lucia Park

Mtubatuba

The Big 5 False Bay

2. Background

In 2005, Oxfam Australia initiated the

Umkhanyakude Partnership Program, with

the aim of strengthening food and nutrition

security within the context of HIV and AIDS

in the region. The food security program

partners identified climate change as one

of the issues that needs to be addressed

within Umkhanyakude. In all municipalities

a number of long-term environmental trends

are occurring. These include increasing

deforestation due to people removing wood

for domestic use which is leading to soil

degradation, increased rainfall variability,

warmer winters, and increased incidence

and length of drought. These in turn are

affecting crop productivity, diversity, quality,

and food security.1

Figure one: The municipalities within

South Africa’s Umkhanyakude district.2

Umkhanyakude District Municipality is one

of KwaZulu-Natal’s 10 district councils and

consists of five local municipalities and one

district-managed area. The 2001 census

estimates a population of some 590,000

people, with the highest dependency ratio

(children under 15 years to adults) and one

of the highest percentages of vulnerable

groups (women, children and the elderly)

of all districts in KwaZulu-Natal. Abject

poverty is experienced by about 77% of the

district’s population.3 The district has the

highest malaria prevalence in the country.

HIV and AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) are the

leading causes of morbidity and mortality.4

3. Overview

The northern municipality of

Umhlabuyalingana has the highest levels

of chronic malnutrition and underweight

children, ahead of Hlabisa, which is the

largest municipality in terms of population

size. The municipalities of Mtubatuba, rural

Umkhanyakude (where 62,000 households

are reported to suffer from lack of food) and

The Big Five False Bay show improving

trends in wasting5 indicating a general

improvement in the malnutrition situation.

In all municipalities except Mtubatuba,

income on food, even in areas where crops

are grown intensively. A significant

percentage of income is also spent on

transport due to remoteness from urban

areas and markets (in some municipalities

more than 20% of income is spent

on transport).6

The Integrated Sustainable Rural

Development Programme (ISRDP) forms

part of the South African Government’s

strategy to improve the wellbeing and

opportunities of the rural poor. The first

phase of the ISRDP targets 13 district

municipalities, known as nodes, of which

Umkhanyakude District Municipality is

one. Initial findings indicate that poor

infrastructure and basic services are

some of the key challenges facing the

municipality. More than 60% of households

do not have a telephone connection, less

than 30% of households are connected to

the electricity supply, and more than 75%

of households do not have access to basic

sanitation facilities and a potable water

supply.7 Critical shortages of health facilities

are of great concern considering HIV and

AIDS prevalence is higher in KwaZulu-Natal

than in other South African provinces. HIV

and AIDS prevalence ranges from about

20% to 44% and is estimated to average

between 20% and 30% within

Umkhanyakude district.8

2. At the time of writing, the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The new name is used throughout this report except in the maps which were compiled prior to the name change.

3. Karumbidza (2007).

4. Zondi (2004). 5. Children whose weight for height is significantly

below the norm.

6. DoA (2006). 7. IDT (2007). 8. KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health Annual

Report available at http://www.kznhealth.gov.za/annualreport2002.2003.pdf

Above: Nokhutula Dlamini is 23 years old and looks after four other children in this parentless household. Here she is seen outside in the open with her hut in the background. The Ubombo Centre helps this family by giving them food parcels, school uniforms and paying their school fees. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

1. Sterrett (2007).

3. Overview of vulnerability in Umkhanyakude district

Jozini

Umhlabuyalingana

Hlabisa

St Lucia Park

Mtubatuba

The Big 5 False Bay

Several other health risks characterise

vulnerability in Umkhanyakude. The

second-highest cause of mortality in the

district after HIV is tuberculosis, with about

65% of TB cases being co-infected with

HIV. The climate throughout the district is

also suitable for endemic malaria, with

northern Umkhanyakude considered a high

risk area where anti-malarial drugs are

recommended for all travellers.9

The high incidence of orphans throughout

South Africa is of particular concern. It is

estimated that, given no significant changes

in sexual behaviour or health interventions,

by 2015 around one third of children under

the age of 18 in South Africa will have lost

one or both parents, largely as a result of

the impact of the HIV and AIDS pandemic.10

Orphans are already at enormous socio-

economic risk, being more vulnerable than

children with parents to food insecurity,

desertion, illness, poverty, poor housing,

poor access to services and education,

emotional problems, and abuse.11 Climate

change is likely to add a further dimension

to this risk profile.

4. Climate change and vulnerability

Vulnerability to climate change in

Umkhanyakude is characterised by the

nature of these climate changes and by

the interaction between climate and the

area’s current and future socio-economic

and biophysical conditions. These

conditions determine its sensitivity

and adaptive capacity.

There are enormous gaps in the

understanding of the characteristics of

climate change globally, and for southern

Africa, including the nature of its impacts

on key areas such as human health,

agriculture, tourism and ecosystems.

Much of the climate-related research

on human health has focused on malaria,

but many uncertainties still exist about

how malaria will spread and research

is also needed into other diseases,

such as dengue fever and meningitis.12

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report

confirms that Africa is one of the most

vulnerable continents to climate change

and climate variability, particularly in

the face of multiple stresses and

underlying vulnerabilities.13

4. Vulnerability

Above: Coordinator for the Ingwavuma Orphan Care Centre speaks with Ugogo Eunice Thumbela, Nomobo Mavundia and Ncamsile Mavundla about the issues they are dealing with in their community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

9. See www.mara.org.za and www.malaria.org.za/

Malaria_Risk/Risk_Maps/risk_maps.htm

10. Freeman & Nkomo (2006). 11. Ibid.

Right: Mrs Mbhele's grandson, one tiny member of the 22-member household. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

12. Boko et al (2007). 13. Ibid.

Several other health risks characterise

vulnerability in Umkhanyakude. The

second-highest cause of mortality in the

district after HIV is tuberculosis, with about

65% of TB cases being co-infected with

HIV. The climate throughout the district is

also suitable for endemic malaria, with

northern Umkhanyakude considered a high

risk area where anti-malarial drugs are

recommended for all travellers.9

The high incidence of orphans throughout

South Africa is of particular concern. It is

estimated that, given no significant changes

in sexual behaviour or health interventions,

by 2015 around one third of children under

the age of 18 in South Africa will have lost

one or both parents, largely as a result of

the impact of the HIV and AIDS pandemic.10

Orphans are already at enormous socio-

economic risk, being more vulnerable than

children with parents to food insecurity,

desertion, illness, poverty, poor housing,

poor access to services and education,

emotional problems, and abuse.11 Climate

change is likely to add a further dimension

to this risk profile.

4. Climate change and vulnerability

Vulnerability to climate change in

Umkhanyakude is characterised by the

nature of these climate changes and by

the interaction between climate and the

area’s current and future socio-economic

and biophysical conditions. These

conditions determine its sensitivity

and adaptive capacity.

There are enormous gaps in the

understanding of the characteristics of

climate change globally, and for southern

Africa, including the nature of its impacts

on key areas such as human health,

agriculture, tourism and ecosystems.

Much of the climate-related research

on human health has focused on malaria,

but many uncertainties still exist about

how malaria will spread and research

is also needed into other diseases,

such as dengue fever and meningitis.12

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report

confirms that Africa is one of the most

vulnerable continents to climate change

and climate variability, particularly in

the face of multiple stresses and

underlying vulnerabilities.13

4. Vulnerability

Above: Coordinator for the Ingwavuma Orphan Care Centre speaks with Ugogo Eunice Thumbela, Nomobo Mavundia and Ncamsile Mavundla about the issues they are dealing with in their community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

9. See www.mara.org.za and www.malaria.org.za/

Malaria_Risk/Risk_Maps/risk_maps.htm

10. Freeman & Nkomo (2006). 11. Ibid.

Right: Mrs Mbhele's grandson, one tiny member of the 22-member household. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

12. Boko et al (2007). 13. Ibid.

10 1110

5. Projected climate change

in Umkhanyakude district

5.1 Background:

climate change research and data

Extremely limited climate change research

has been undertaken in KwaZulu-Natal,

despite the enormous and diverse quantity

of environmental research that has gone into

the development of the iSimangaliso

Wetland Park, a World Heritage Site.14

At present, the only climate change-related

research in the park is looking at changes

in river flow and is very much in its early

stages. No research into climate

change vulnerability and adaptation

in Umkhanyakude could be sourced to

inform this report, indicating the urgent

need for expanding adaptation-orientated

climate change research in South and

southern Africa.

5.2 Climate change impacts

A number of general conclusions about

the future climate (2070–2100) are relevant

to the Umkhanyakude district and climate

modelling is constantly being refined.

Climate responses may in reality vary within

kilometres.15 Generalisations do not consider

anthropogenic interventions, responses and

adaptations, such as land-use change,

policy changes, demographic changes, and

so on. Thus they can only highlight

directions for thinking about risk analysis in

the district. Some of the main impacts of

climate change on the district are likely to be:

• lowerrainfall;

•wettersummers,drierwinters;

•highertemperatures;

• increasedhydrological

risk and uncertainty;

•highincidenceofextremerainfalldays;

•dryingoftopsoils;

• lesswaterfordrinking,

sanitation and irrigation;

• lesswaterinthesoilforplants;and

• increasesinirrigation

requirements for crops.16

Water is arguably South Africa’s most

limiting natural resource.17 The impacts on

vulnerability described in this section are

extensively, though not exclusively, shaped

by rainfall and hydrological responses to

climate change. There are numerous links

between climate change and water

resources, and changes in water resources

are arguably the most profound

environmental changes related to climate

change.18 South Africa is already a high risk

hydro-climatic environment characterised

by some of the most highly variable rainfalls

and stream-flows worldwide, and the

management of surface water and

groundwater is already challenging.19

6. Food security, livelihoods and

climate change in Umkhanyakude

6.1 Introduction

It has long been recognised that food

security is about more than food production.

There are a number of determinants of

food security, each of which applies

across scales:20

•Food availability: ensuring that a wide

variety of food is available in local markets

and from own production to supply

sufficient per capita food.

•Food access: focuses on demand-side

failures; even where there is sufficient

production of food, food insecurity may

still result due to entitlement failure —

inability to buy it, grow it, be given

it or work for it.

•Food stability: maintaining the

availability, accessibility and use of

food over time in the face of a variety

of natural, economic, social and policy

shocks and stresses.

•Food utilisation: food is chosen, stored,

prepared, distributed and eaten in ways

that are nutritionally adequate for all

members of the household, including

men and women, girls and boys.

Possible impacts of climate change

on three aspects of food security are

summarised in Figure two. It is clear

from this summary that the impacts will

be extremely complex, and will involve

direct changes to food production systems

and affect employment and livelihoods.

Many of the interactions and outcomes

will be highly localised, being dependent on

local socio-economic dynamics, resources,

and human responses. It is therefore

difficult to predict the exact food security

vulnerabilities that will arise.

6. Food security

14. The most recent available climate change research for South Africa is a report by multiple authors and institutions, published by the South African Water Research Commission, entitled Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation (2005).

15. Jarvis et al (2006).

16. Schulze (2005b).

17. Schulze (2005c).

18. Ibid.

19. Schulze (2005d).

Above: Cabangile Myeni is a single mother of three, from Jozini, South Africa, cares for her sister’s two orphaned children. Local partner Simbambisene supports the family with food parcels and seeds to grow a home garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

20. FAO (2007).

10 1110

5. Projected climate change

in Umkhanyakude district

5.1 Background:

climate change research and data

Extremely limited climate change research

has been undertaken in KwaZulu-Natal,

despite the enormous and diverse quantity

of environmental research that has gone into

the development of the iSimangaliso

Wetland Park, a World Heritage Site.14

At present, the only climate change-related

research in the park is looking at changes

in river flow and is very much in its early

stages. No research into climate

change vulnerability and adaptation

in Umkhanyakude could be sourced to

inform this report, indicating the urgent

need for expanding adaptation-orientated

climate change research in South and

southern Africa.

5.2 Climate change impacts

A number of general conclusions about

the future climate (2070–2100) are relevant

to the Umkhanyakude district and climate

modelling is constantly being refined.

Climate responses may in reality vary within

kilometres.15 Generalisations do not consider

anthropogenic interventions, responses and

adaptations, such as land-use change,

policy changes, demographic changes, and

so on. Thus they can only highlight

directions for thinking about risk analysis in

the district. Some of the main impacts of

climate change on the district are likely to be:

• lowerrainfall;

•wettersummers,drierwinters;

•highertemperatures;

• increasedhydrological

risk and uncertainty;

•highincidenceofextremerainfalldays;

•dryingoftopsoils;

• lesswaterfordrinking,

sanitation and irrigation;

• lesswaterinthesoilforplants;and

• increasesinirrigation

requirements for crops.16

Water is arguably South Africa’s most

limiting natural resource.17 The impacts on

vulnerability described in this section are

extensively, though not exclusively, shaped

by rainfall and hydrological responses to

climate change. There are numerous links

between climate change and water

resources, and changes in water resources

are arguably the most profound

environmental changes related to climate

change.18 South Africa is already a high risk

hydro-climatic environment characterised

by some of the most highly variable rainfalls

and stream-flows worldwide, and the

management of surface water and

groundwater is already challenging.19

6. Food security, livelihoods and

climate change in Umkhanyakude

6.1 Introduction

It has long been recognised that food

security is about more than food production.

There are a number of determinants of

food security, each of which applies

across scales:20

•Food availability: ensuring that a wide

variety of food is available in local markets

and from own production to supply

sufficient per capita food.

•Food access: focuses on demand-side

failures; even where there is sufficient

production of food, food insecurity may

still result due to entitlement failure —

inability to buy it, grow it, be given

it or work for it.

•Food stability: maintaining the

availability, accessibility and use of

food over time in the face of a variety

of natural, economic, social and policy

shocks and stresses.

•Food utilisation: food is chosen, stored,

prepared, distributed and eaten in ways

that are nutritionally adequate for all

members of the household, including

men and women, girls and boys.

Possible impacts of climate change

on three aspects of food security are

summarised in Figure two. It is clear

from this summary that the impacts will

be extremely complex, and will involve

direct changes to food production systems

and affect employment and livelihoods.

Many of the interactions and outcomes

will be highly localised, being dependent on

local socio-economic dynamics, resources,

and human responses. It is therefore

difficult to predict the exact food security

vulnerabilities that will arise.

6. Food security

14. The most recent available climate change research for South Africa is a report by multiple authors and institutions, published by the South African Water Research Commission, entitled Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation (2005).

17. Schulze (2005c).

18. Ibid.

Above: Cabangile Myeni is a single mother of three, from Jozini, South Africa, cares for her sister’s two orphaned children. Local partner Simbambisene supports the family with food parcels and seeds to grow a home garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

20. FAO (2007).

Figure two: Links between

climate change in Africa and

three major components of

food security (this synthesis

first appeared in published

form in the IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report).

Food availability

1. Direct effect on crop yields (cereals,

vegitables, fruits and edible oils), rangelands

and meat production, fisheries and wild food

sources; through elevated CO2 levels,

variations in temperature and precipitation,

and length of growing season, increases in

crop pests and diseases and altering soil

fertility (eg desiccation and salination)1

2. Indirect environmental feedbacks through

responses such as use of marginal lands

increasing degradation and influencing

micro - and macro climates.2

Food access

1. Direct impact on agricultural zones

affecting incomes and jobs, and the macro

economy, which in turn shape livelihoods in

number of ways, eg forms of social protection.3

2. Direct effect on human health and susceptibility

to diseases such as malaria and AIDS which

undermine livelihoods capability and food security.4

3. Indirect alterations to social economic aspects

of livelihoods, food systems and development

processes through human responses, eg

land use and adaption responses.5

6.2 Crop production

2001 census data indicate that nearly

95% of the district’s population are rural

dwellers, and many households in

Umkhanyakude rely at least partially

on subsistence agriculture to meet some

of their food requirements. Hlabisa is

the municipality in which subsistence

agriculture is the most wide-spread,

covering most of the municipality.

In the Big Five False Bay municipality,

there are large areas under commercial

and subsistence agriculture.21

One of the greatest difficulties in

considering the impact of climate change

on agriculture is that crop and vegetation

responses to change have been projected

to be highly localised. For the majority of

cultivated land, the most likely best-case

scenario is that small reductions in yield

will occur.22

The most recent climate projections for

the country suggest that rain-fed agriculture

in Umkhanyakude is likely to be negatively

affected due to lower annual rainfall, higher

temperatures, increased hydrological risk,

increased rainfall variability, drying of top

soils, less water in the soil for plants, and

increased irrigation requirements.23 Such

a change may have serious implications

for food security and livelihoods locally

and nationally.

6.3 Rangelands

South Africa has extensive land

degradation challenges. Much of the land

covered by the Umkhanyakude district is

estimated to suffer from light to moderate

combined soil and veldt degradation. The

former homeland areas — which include

the Umkhanyakude district — are estimated

to be the most susceptible to further

degradation in the face of climate change.24

6.4 Human health

The links between health and food security

Food insecurity and poor health are closely

related. Food insecurity may lead to a state

of malnutrition which impairs physical

functioning, compromises the ability to

work, and affects development processes

such as growth (height and weight),

pregnancy and foetal development,

lactation, and resistance to and recovery

from disease. In turn, disease prevents

people from being able to invest in the

human capital necessary to avoiding

food insecurity, for example the capacity

to develop successful responses and

adaptations to vulnerability.

The choice, preparation and intake of

food are influenced by food access and

availability, education, culture, and food

preferences. It necessitates access to

clean water, and is also highly influenced by

access to refrigeration, sanitation and other

resources. The effects of climate change

described above, in which there is likely to

be reduced water for drinking and sanitation

in the district, could increase the likelihood

of disease.

1. Rosegrant & Cline, 2003; AIACC, 2004; Turpie et al, 2002; The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al, 2002; Swaminathan, 2000.

2. The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al., 2002.

3. Turpie et al, 2002; AU, 2005.

4. Turpie et al, 2002; Mano et al, 2003; Piot & Pinstrup-Andersen, 2002; van Lieshout et al, 2004; Gommes et al, 2004; USAID, 2003.

5. Brooks et al, 2005; AIACC, 2004; Gregory et al, 2005; Thomas & Twyman, 2005; O'Brien, 2006; Adger & Vincent, 2005.

6. The Royal Society, 2005.

7. Gommes et al, 2004; Schulze et al, 2001; Swaminathan, 2000.

Above: Hillcrest AIDS Centre Trust community food garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

21. DoA (2006).

23. Schulze (2005a).

24. Meadows & Hoffman (2003).

Nutrient access

1. Direct effect on the nutrient content of foods,

including protein contents, gluten content of grains,

and toxin levels from pests and diseases.6

2. Direct effect on human health and thus ability

to absorb nutrients through increasing vunerability

to disease (such as AIDS and malaria).7

Climate change

food security

Figure two: Links between

climate change in Africa and

three major components of

food security (this synthesis

first appeared in published

form in the IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report).

Food availability

1. Direct effect on crop yields (cereals,

vegitables, fruits and edible oils), rangelands

and meat production, fisheries and wild food

sources; through elevated CO2 levels,

variations in temperature and precipitation,

and length of growing season, increases in

crop pests and diseases and altering soil

fertility (eg desiccation and salination)1

2. Indirect environmental feedbacks through

responses such as use of marginal lands

increasing degradation and influencing

micro - and macro climates.2

Food access

1. Direct impact on agricultural zones

affecting incomes and jobs, and the macro

economy, which in turn shape livelihoods in

number of ways, eg forms of social protection.3

2. Direct effect on human health and susceptibility

to diseases such as malaria and AIDS which

undermine livelihoods capability and food security.4

3. Indirect alterations to social economic aspects

of livelihoods, food systems and development

processes through human responses, eg

land use and adaption responses.5

6.2 Crop production

2001 census data indicate that nearly

95% of the district’s population are rural

dwellers, and many households in

Umkhanyakude rely at least partially

on subsistence agriculture to meet some

of their food requirements. Hlabisa is

the municipality in which subsistence

agriculture is the most wide-spread,

covering most of the municipality.

In the Big Five False Bay municipality,

there are large areas under commercial

and subsistence agriculture.21

One of the greatest difficulties in

considering the impact of climate change

on agriculture is that crop and vegetation

responses to change have been projected

to be highly localised. For the majority of

cultivated land, the most likely best-case

scenario is that small reductions in yield

will occur.22

The most recent climate projections for

the country suggest that rain-fed agriculture

in Umkhanyakude is likely to be negatively

affected due to lower annual rainfall, higher

temperatures, increased hydrological risk,

increased rainfall variability, drying of top

soils, less water in the soil for plants, and

increased irrigation requirements.23 Such

a change may have serious implications

for food security and livelihoods locally

and nationally.

6.3 Rangelands

South Africa has extensive land

degradation challenges. Much of the land

covered by the Umkhanyakude district is

estimated to suffer from light to moderate

combined soil and veldt degradation. The

former homeland areas — which include

the Umkhanyakude district — are estimated

to be the most susceptible to further

degradation in the face of climate change.24

6.4 Human health

The links between health and food security

Food insecurity and poor health are closely

related. Food insecurity may lead to a state

of malnutrition which impairs physical

functioning, compromises the ability to

work, and affects development processes

such as growth (height and weight),

pregnancy and foetal development,

lactation, and resistance to and recovery

from disease. In turn, disease prevents

people from being able to invest in the

human capital necessary to avoiding

food insecurity, for example the capacity

to develop successful responses and

adaptations to vulnerability.

The choice, preparation and intake of

food are influenced by food access and

availability, education, culture, and food

preferences. It necessitates access to

clean water, and is also highly influenced by

access to refrigeration, sanitation and other

resources. The effects of climate change

described above, in which there is likely to

be reduced water for drinking and sanitation

in the district, could increase the likelihood

of disease.

1. Rosegrant & Cline, 2003; AIACC, 2004; Turpie et al, 2002; The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al, 2002; Swaminathan, 2000.

2. The Royal Society, 2005; Fischer et al., 2002.

3. Turpie et al, 2002; AU, 2005.

4. Turpie et al, 2002; Mano et al, 2003; Piot & Pinstrup-Andersen, 2002; van Lieshout et al, 2004; Gommes et al, 2004; USAID, 2003.

5. Brooks et al, 2005; AIACC, 2004; Gregory et al, 2005; Thomas & Twyman, 2005; O'Brien, 2006; Adger & Vincent, 2005.

6. The Royal Society, 2005.

7. Gommes et al, 2004; Schulze et al, 2001; Swaminathan, 2000.

Above: Hillcrest AIDS Centre Trust community food garden. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

21. DoA (2006).

23. Schulze (2005a).

24. Meadows & Hoffman (2003).

Nutrient access

1. Direct effect on the nutrient content of foods,

including protein contents, gluten content of grains,

and toxin levels from pests and diseases.6

2. Direct effect on human health and thus ability

to absorb nutrients through increasing vunerability

to disease (such as AIDS and malaria).7

Climate change

food security

14 1514 15

Climate related diseases

A number of climate-mediated diseases

exist, and climate has impacts on human

health beyond affecting sanitation, drinking

water and food. In general, warmer and

more extreme climate shifts are likely

to exacerbate disease and health risks.25

Changes in climate have the potential

to exacerbate:

•mortalityamongthosewhoaresick,

old or weak through illness due to extreme

heat or cold, which also has implications

for maternal health;

•airpollution;

•aero-allergens;

•fungiandmoulds;

•water-andfood-bornediseases,

for example, giardia, cholera,

cryptosporidium, rotaviruses,

enteroviruses, coxsackie viruses,

cyclospora, and hepatitis A and E viruses;

•seasonalinfluenza;

•rodent-bornedisease;and

•changesindistributionofinsectvectors

of disease, for example, malaria.

In general, Umkhanyakude might expect to

see increases in illness or mortality related

to higher temperatures, water-borne

diseases, and malaria.

Cholera

A recent study in KwaZulu-Natal

demonstrates the widespread primary

and secondary impacts that climate change

might have on aspects of human health and

disease risk. While cholera is associated

with a number of anthropogenic factors,

including poor sanitation and overcrowding,

climate-related environmental factors affect

the survival of environmental reservoirs of

the pathogen that causes cholera outbreaks.

Malaria

The incidence and transmission of malaria

is largely limited by climate. Seasonal

changes (inter-annual changes) in the

number of cases of malaria in KwaZulu-

Natal have been found to be significantly

associated with several climate variables.26

Rainfall variability, humidity and standing

water affect the water available for

breading. Small differences in climate

were found to have marked effects on

the intensity of malaria transmission,

even in areas subject to malaria control

for many years.27

Moreover, both drug resistance and levels

of HIV infection have been found to be

particularly significant factors in the

incidence of malaria. A 2005 study found

estimated proportional increases of 28%

for malaria incidence and 114% for malaria

deaths across southern Africa due to the

impact of HIV.28 Increased malaria would

have extensive repercussions for

livelihoods and resilience, and would

also result in a considerable burden

on health services.

Other vector-borne diseases

Africa is susceptible to a number of

vector-borne diseases over and above

malaria. These include diseases such

as schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis,

trypanosomiasis, yellow fever and

tick-borne haemorrhagic fevers.29 South

Africa has been found to be one of the most

vulnerable countries in Africa to climate-

induced changes in tick distributions and

tick-borne diseases.30 These changes are

likely to herald an associated increase in

numerous tick-borne pathogens which

infect livestock and people.

Left: Collecting water at Ingwavuma Orphan Care. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

25. Comrie (2007).

26. Craig et al (2004b).

27. Kleinschmidt et al (2001).

28. Korenromp et al (2005).

29. Githeko et al (2000).

30. Olwoch (2005).

14 1514 15

Climate related diseases

A number of climate-mediated diseases

exist, and climate has impacts on human

health beyond affecting sanitation, drinking

water and food. In general, warmer and

more extreme climate shifts are likely

to exacerbate disease and health risks.25

Changes in climate have the potential

to exacerbate:

•mortalityamongthosewhoaresick,

old or weak through illness due to extreme

heat or cold, which also has implications

for maternal health;

•airpollution;

•aero-allergens;

•fungiandmoulds;

•water-andfood-bornediseases,

for example, giardia, cholera,

cryptosporidium, rotaviruses,

enteroviruses, coxsackie viruses,

cyclospora, and hepatitis A and E viruses;

•seasonalinfluenza;

•rodent-bornedisease;and

•changesindistributionofinsectvectors

of disease, for example, malaria.

In general, Umkhanyakude might expect to

see increases in illness or mortality related

to higher temperatures, water-borne

diseases, and malaria.

Cholera

A recent study in KwaZulu-Natal

demonstrates the widespread primary

and secondary impacts that climate change

might have on aspects of human health and

disease risk. While cholera is associated

with a number of anthropogenic factors,

including poor sanitation and overcrowding,

climate-related environmental factors affect

the survival of environmental reservoirs of

the pathogen that causes cholera outbreaks.

Malaria

The incidence and transmission of malaria

is largely limited by climate. Seasonal

changes (inter-annual changes) in the

number of cases of malaria in KwaZulu-

Natal have been found to be significantly

associated with several climate variables.26

Rainfall variability, humidity and standing

water affect the water available for

breading. Small differences in climate

were found to have marked effects on

the intensity of malaria transmission,

even in areas subject to malaria control

for many years.27

Moreover, both drug resistance and levels

of HIV infection have been found to be

particularly significant factors in the

incidence of malaria. A 2005 study found

estimated proportional increases of 28%

for malaria incidence and 114% for malaria

deaths across southern Africa due to the

impact of HIV.28 Increased malaria would

have extensive repercussions for

livelihoods and resilience, and would

also result in a considerable burden

on health services.

Other vector-borne diseases

Africa is susceptible to a number of

vector-borne diseases over and above

malaria. These include diseases such

as schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis,

trypanosomiasis, yellow fever and

tick-borne haemorrhagic fevers.29 South

Africa has been found to be one of the most

vulnerable countries in Africa to climate-

induced changes in tick distributions and

tick-borne diseases.30 These changes are

likely to herald an associated increase in

numerous tick-borne pathogens which

infect livestock and people.

Left: Collecting water at Ingwavuma Orphan Care. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

25. Comrie (2007).

26. Craig et al (2004b).

27. Kleinschmidt et al (2001).

28. Korenromp et al (2005).

29. Githeko et al (2000).

30. Olwoch (2005).

KwaZulu-Natal holds about one sixth

of South Africa’s remaining indigenous

forest, and is unique in that it supports

both the major forest types of the southern

African subcontinent — Afromontane forest

and Indian Ocean coastal belt forest —

and their eight subtypes.33 The province

is thus important for maintaining forest

diversity, and thus the biodiversity in

South Africa. Umkhanyakude contains

several areas comprising more than

50 hectares of indigenous forest,

representing all eight subtypes.

Importance of biodiversity

Ecosystems and their biodiversity offer a

number of “services” for human wellbeing

including provisioning services, such

as game, wild foods, fodder and fibre;

regulating services, such as climate and

water regulation, air and water purification,

disease and pest regulation and protection

from natural hazards such as floods; and

cultural services, which satisfy human

spiritual and aesthetic needs.34

Indigenous forest is a critical element

in the maintenance of biodiversity and

provides an important livelihood resource

for many KwaZulu-Natal communities.

6.6 Sea levels

Changes in sea level are expected to

affect beaches, cliffs, deltas, estuaries

and lagoons, mangroves and coral reefs.

Major impacts are expected on freshwater

availability (for example from affected

groundwater resources), fisheries, health,

recreation and tourism, biodiversity and

human settlements resulting from extreme

events, flooding, seawater temperature

changes, rising water tables, and salt

water intrusions.35

While the exact biophysical and human

impacts on the Umkhanyakude district are

not yet known, scientists are confident that

livelihoods in coastal areas of developing

countries are more vulnerable to the

impacts of sea-level rises than those in

developed countries.36 The impact on the

coast of KwaZulu-Natal is likely to be

largely erosion of the coastline.37

6.7 Tourism

Climate change is expected to have a

significant impact on the tourism sector,

which will have associated impacts on

livelihoods in Umkhanyakude through

effects on employment and incomes.

The coastal areas of Umkhanyakude

are some of the most pristine dune

environments in the world, and their

erosion would be a significant loss in

terms of tourism and livelihoods.

The impacts on tourism and livelihoods for

South Africa that will accrue from factors

such as loss of biodiversity and sea level

changes are not yet possible to quantify.38

6.8 Natural disasters

There is wide agreement that climate

change will result in an increased risk

of frequency and intensity of droughts

and floods in southern Africa.39 The

observations of farmers and development

practitioners as well as policy makers and

planners to some extent support that

drought frequency is increasing in southern

Africa as well as South Africa.

Highly variable rainfall between years is

already a natural feature of South African

rainfall patterns, and much of the country

has always been affected by aridity,

droughts and floods.40 The climate impacts

predicted for Umkhanyakude suggest

increased deviations in annual precipitation

from the average. There is also predicted

to be an increase in extreme rainfall days.41

6.5 Degradation of biodiversity

Changes in biodiversity in South Africa

The ability of many ecosystems to adapt

naturally is likely to be exceeded by a

combination of global change drivers

(such as land-use change) and climate

change.31 This will be associated with a high

risk of extinction of many plant and animal

species. Aquatic ecosystems, including

wetlands, are in the worst condition:

about 54% of rivers in South Africa are

considered endangered, more than 50% of

wetlands have already been destroyed, and

about 34% of terrestrial ecosystems are

considered threatened.32

Above: Visiting one of the child headed households in the Kwamandonya district, volunteers meet with the eldest member of the household to discuss how they are doing and how their situation can be improved on. These types of households are indicative of the poverty in the district highlighting the vulnerabilities experienced within the community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

31. Fischlin et al (2007).

32. DEAT (2006).

33. Eeley et al (1999).

35. Nicholls et al (2007).

36. Ibid.

37. Turpie et al (2002).

38. Ibid.

39. Boardley & Schulze (2005); Reid et al (2005).

KwaZulu-Natal holds about one sixth

of South Africa’s remaining indigenous

forest, and is unique in that it supports

both the major forest types of the southern

African subcontinent — Afromontane forest

and Indian Ocean coastal belt forest —

and their eight subtypes.33 The province

is thus important for maintaining forest

diversity, and thus the biodiversity in

South Africa. Umkhanyakude contains

several areas comprising more than

50 hectares of indigenous forest,

representing all eight subtypes.

Importance of biodiversity

Ecosystems and their biodiversity offer a

number of “services” for human wellbeing

including provisioning services, such

as game, wild foods, fodder and fibre;

regulating services, such as climate and

water regulation, air and water purification,

disease and pest regulation and protection

from natural hazards such as floods; and

cultural services, which satisfy human

spiritual and aesthetic needs.34

Indigenous forest is a critical element

in the maintenance of biodiversity and

provides an important livelihood resource

for many KwaZulu-Natal communities.

6.6 Sea levels

Changes in sea level are expected to

affect beaches, cliffs, deltas, estuaries

and lagoons, mangroves and coral reefs.

Major impacts are expected on freshwater

availability (for example from affected

groundwater resources), fisheries, health,

recreation and tourism, biodiversity and

human settlements resulting from extreme

events, flooding, seawater temperature

changes, rising water tables, and salt

water intrusions.35

While the exact biophysical and human

impacts on the Umkhanyakude district are

not yet known, scientists are confident that

livelihoods in coastal areas of developing

countries are more vulnerable to the

impacts of sea-level rises than those in

developed countries.36 The impact on the

coast of KwaZulu-Natal is likely to be

largely erosion of the coastline.37

6.7 Tourism

Climate change is expected to have a

significant impact on the tourism sector,

which will have associated impacts on

livelihoods in Umkhanyakude through

effects on employment and incomes.

The coastal areas of Umkhanyakude

are some of the most pristine dune

environments in the world, and their

erosion would be a significant loss in

terms of tourism and livelihoods.

The impacts on tourism and livelihoods for

South Africa that will accrue from factors

such as loss of biodiversity and sea level

changes are not yet possible to quantify.38

6.8 Natural disasters

There is wide agreement that climate

change will result in an increased risk

of frequency and intensity of droughts

and floods in southern Africa.39 The

observations of farmers and development

practitioners as well as policy makers and

planners to some extent support that

drought frequency is increasing in southern

Africa as well as South Africa.

Highly variable rainfall between years is

already a natural feature of South African

rainfall patterns, and much of the country

has always been affected by aridity,

droughts and floods.40 The climate impacts

predicted for Umkhanyakude suggest

increased deviations in annual precipitation

from the average. There is also predicted

to be an increase in extreme rainfall days.41

6.5 Degradation of biodiversity

Changes in biodiversity in South Africa

The ability of many ecosystems to adapt

naturally is likely to be exceeded by a

combination of global change drivers

(such as land-use change) and climate

change.31 This will be associated with a high

risk of extinction of many plant and animal

species. Aquatic ecosystems, including

wetlands, are in the worst condition:

about 54% of rivers in South Africa are

considered endangered, more than 50% of

wetlands have already been destroyed, and

about 34% of terrestrial ecosystems are

considered threatened.32

Above: Visiting one of the child headed households in the Kwamandonya district, volunteers meet with the eldest member of the household to discuss how they are doing and how their situation can be improved on. These types of households are indicative of the poverty in the district highlighting the vulnerabilities experienced within the community. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

32. DEAT (2006).

33. Eeley et al (1999).

35. Nicholls et al (2007).

36. Ibid.

37. Turpie et al (2002).

38. Ibid.

39. Boardley & Schulze (2005); Reid et al (2005).

7. Mapping vulnerability

in Umkhanyakude

7.1 Introduction

Because adaptive capacity is an element

of vulnerability, the indicators used to

“measure” vulnerability to climate change

(in terms of exposure to risk) and the

capacity to adapt to it are frequently similar.

Factors that are typically considered

determinants of vulnerability include

economic wellbeing and stability,

demographic structure, institutional

stability and wellbeing, and the connections

between individuals, communities and

institutions beyond the local level and

the ability to help shape policy.42 Similarly,

adaptive capacity is considered a function

of factors such as economic wellbeing,

education and skills, information access

and access to other resources,

infrastructure, and institutional issues.43

Recent research fielding expert opinion

on the effects of climate change on human

health, for example, found that experts

regarded per capita income, inequality

in the distribution of income, universal

healthcare coverage, and high access to

information as important determinants of

the capacity to adapt to climate change.44

7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability

Index (UVI)

The indicators

Table one summarises the factors that

are included in a vulnerability index for

Umkhanyakude district. These were

developed through drawing on the

vulnerability literature, but choices

were necessarily also determined by

available information.

Notes: The figures in brackets indicate the

percentage contribution of each indicator

to its broad component of the UVI, and the

percentage contribution of each broad

component to the overall index.

These indicators represent primarily

“internal” factors that determine the

sensitivity of people to hazards, including

climate change, and their capacity to

respond and adapt.45 The “external” or

exposure factors might include, in addition

to climate changes, national policies,

national economic issues and global

policies.46 However, it would be too

complex to include such external factors

in a map of this scale.

Each broad component of vulnerability

in the table contributes a given percentage

to the composite index.47 This percentage

is based on a theoretical understanding

of that component’s relative importance to

vulnerability, based on an understanding

of the dynamics of vulnerability in

KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the wider

literature on vulnerability, and uncertainties

regarding the importance of the indicators

the literature.

Table one: Breakdown of the Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)

Broad determinants of vulnerability,

and components of the UVI

Indicators Description Data source

and components of the UVIClinics (15%)

Ratio of population to clinics. Calculated at municipal level since

many wards have no clinics, and some clinics fall on ward boundaries.Department of Health

Interconnectivity (20%)Schools (15%)

Ratio of population under 18 years to schools.

Calculated at municipal level since many schools fall on ward boundaries.Department of Education

Education (50%) Percentage of adults with no high school education. Census 2001

Road access (20%) Ratio of total population to km of road per square km area. Knowledge Factory 2006

Economic wellbeing (25%) Poverty (50%) Percentage of households in each ward with no income. Census 2001

Employment (50%) Percentage of unemployed adults in each ward. Census 2001

Health and security (25%) Malnutrition (10%)

Percentage below average height-for-age. This only contributed

10% as the data were available only at municipal level, not ward level.

Human Sciences Resource

Council (HSRC) 2007

Sanitation (10%) Percentage of people in each ward without flushing toilets or pit latrines. Census 2001

Access to

potable water (20%)

Percentage of people in each ward without access to piped water

within the dwelling, within the yard, or on a community stand within

200m from house.

Census 2001

Water-borne

disease risk (20%)

Percentage of people in each ward relying on water from a river,

stream, dam, pool or stagnant source.Census 2001

Orphans (20%)Percentage of children (below age 15) in each ward who responded

“no” to the question “Is your mother alive?” in the 2001 census.Census 2001

Informal housing (20%) Percentage of households living in informal housing or shack. Census 2001

Demographic structure (20%) Age distribution (60%) Ratio of children under 15 and adults over 65 to adults (over 18yrs). Census 2001

Gender ratio (40%) Percentage of female- to male-headed households in each ward. Census 2001

Natural resource dependence (10%) Employment in

agricultural sector (50%)

Percentage of adults employed in agricultural, hunting, forestry

and fishing sectors in each ward.Census 2001

42. Vincent (2004).

43. O’Brien et al (2004).

44. Alberini et al (2006)

45. Adger (2006); Fussel (2005).

46. Fussel (2005).

47. Vincent (2004); Vincent (2007).

in Umkhanyakude

7.1 Introduction

Because adaptive capacity is an element

of vulnerability, the indicators used to

“measure” vulnerability to climate change

(in terms of exposure to risk) and the

capacity to adapt to it are frequently similar.

Factors that are typically considered

determinants of vulnerability include

economic wellbeing and stability,

demographic structure, institutional

stability and wellbeing, and the connections

between individuals, communities and

institutions beyond the local level and

the ability to help shape policy.42 Similarly,

adaptive capacity is considered a function

of factors such as economic wellbeing,

education and skills, information access

and access to other resources,

infrastructure, and institutional issues.43

Recent research fielding expert opinion

on the effects of climate change on human

health, for example, found that experts

regarded per capita income, inequality

in the distribution of income, universal

healthcare coverage, and high access to

information as important determinants of

the capacity to adapt to climate change.44

7.2 An Umkhanyakude Vulnerability

Index (UVI)

The indicators

Table one summarises the factors that

are included in a vulnerability index for

Umkhanyakude district. These were

developed through drawing on the

vulnerability literature, but choices

were necessarily also determined by

available information.

Notes: The figures in brackets indicate the

percentage contribution of each indicator

to its broad component of the UVI, and the

percentage contribution of each broad

component to the overall index.

These indicators represent primarily

“internal” factors that determine the

sensitivity of people to hazards, including

climate change, and their capacity to

respond and adapt.45 The “external” or

exposure factors might include, in addition

to climate changes, national policies,

national economic issues and global

policies.46 However, it would be too

complex to include such external factors

in a map of this scale.

Each broad component of vulnerability

in the table contributes a given percentage

to the composite index.47 This percentage

is based on a theoretical understanding

of that component’s relative importance to

vulnerability, based on an understanding

of the dynamics of vulnerability in

KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the wider

literature on vulnerability, and uncertainties

regarding the importance of the indicators

the literature.

Table one: Breakdown of the Umkhanyakude Vulnerability Index (UVI)

and components of the UVI

Indicators Description Data source

and components of the UVIClinics (15%)

Ratio of population to clinics. Calculated at municipal level since

many wards have no clinics, and some clinics fall on ward boundaries.Department of Health

Interconnectivity (20%)Schools (15%)

Ratio of population under 18 years to schools.

Calculated at municipal level since many schools fall on ward boundaries.Department of Education

Education (50%) Percentage of adults with no high school education. Census 2001

Road access (20%) Ratio of total population to km of road per square km area. Knowledge Factory 2006

Economic wellbeing (25%) Poverty (50%) Percentage of households in each ward with no income. Census 2001

Employment (50%) Percentage of unemployed adults in each ward. Census 2001

Health and security (25%) Malnutrition (10%)

Percentage below average height-for-age. This only contributed

10% as the data were available only at municipal level, not ward level.

Human Sciences Resource

Council (HSRC) 2007

Sanitation (10%) Percentage of people in each ward without flushing toilets or pit latrines. Census 2001

Access to

potable water (20%)

Percentage of people in each ward without access to piped water

within the dwelling, within the yard, or on a community stand within

200m from house.

Census 2001

Water-borne

disease risk (20%)

Percentage of people in each ward relying on water from a river,

stream, dam, pool or stagnant source.Census 2001

Orphans (20%)Percentage of children (below age 15) in each ward who responded

“no” to the question “Is your mother alive?” in the 2001 census.Census 2001

Informal housing (20%) Percentage of households living in informal housing or shack. Census 2001

Demographic structure (20%) Age distribution (60%) Ratio of children under 15 and adults over 65 to adults (over 18yrs). Census 2001

Gender ratio (40%) Percentage of female- to male-headed households in each ward. Census 2001

Natural resource dependence (10%) Employment in

agricultural sector (50%)

Percentage of adults employed in agricultural, hunting, forestry

and fishing sectors in each ward.Census 2001

42. Vincent (2004).

43. O’Brien et al (2004).

44. Alberini et al (2006)

45. Adger (2006); Fussel (2005).

46. Fussel (2005).

47. Vincent (2004); Vincent (2007).

Method of developing the UVI

The smallest scale at which the above

data was consistently available was at ward

level. In creating the UVI, values for each

indicator and each ward were extracted.

All indicators were standardised so that

the highest value in the range equated to 1,

and the lowest value in the range equated

to 0. In some cases this involved a

transformation of the data so that the

highest figure always equated to the

greatest vulnerability. These values were

then summed to make up the six broad

components, contributing the stated

percentages to the total. In turn, each

component was summed to contribute its

stated percentage to the overall UVI for

each ward. The summed figures for the

wards were then ranked as a percentage of

the whole data set, thus returning a number

indicating the overall vulnerability of each

ward relative to other wards (figure three).

It is important to emphasise that the UVI

is not an absolute measure of vulnerability,

but rather an indicator of relative

vulnerability between wards in the

Umkhanyakude district. The whole of

the Umkhanyakude district is considered

economically and socially vulnerable;

the aim of this mapping is to give some

indication of relative vulnerability,

suggesting which wards may be more or

less vulnerable to the impacts of climate

change than others.

Two factors that would have been ideal

to include in the UVI had to be omitted.

These were HIV and AIDS which would

have contributed to the health and security

component, and environmental sensitivity

which would have been included among

the broad components of vulnerability.

HIV and AIDS were omitted because no

data are available below provincial level.

Land degradation would have been the

indicator selected for environmental

sensitivity. However, in some wards

some of the area is classified as “severely

degraded” while other land within the

same ward is classified as only “marginally

degraded” or even “good”. Creating

an average figure for each ward would

therefore not have been meaningful.

Below: Orphaned children who come to the centre once a day to have a good meal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

48. As noted earlier, at the time of writing the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The old name is used in the maps, however, since these were compiled prior to the name change.

uMkhanykudeUVI Index 52702015 52702016

52702013

52702014

52702011

52702012

52701008

52701008 52701004

52702010

52701007

52702005

5270200252702004

52702003

52702001

52704006

52704005

52703003

52704007

52704006

52704009

5270401052704011

52704019

5270401852704017

52704012

52705003

5270401552704016

5270401352704014

52705005

5270500452705001

52705002

NYALAZI RIVER

MTHETHWA

HLABISA NS/NU

SOMKELE

HLABISA

UBATUBA

HLUHLUWE

UBOMBO (NATAL)

UBOMBO NS/NU

MBAZWANA

INGWAVUMA

INGWAVUMA NS/NU

JOZINI

EMANGUSI

MAPUTA

RIVER VIEW

ST.LUCIA ESTUARY

KWAMSAME

20 10 0

Kilometers

5270400452704003

52704001

52704002

52799000

52703002

52703001

52703004

52701002 52701003

52701005

52702009

52702006

52702008

52702007

5270101252701010

52701011

52701009JoziniJozini

UmhlabuyalinganaUmhlabuyalingana

St Lucia ParkSt Lucia Park

Legend

Municipality

0.000 - 0.200

0.201 - 0.300

0.301 - 0.400

0.401 - 0.500

0.501 - 0.600

0.601 - 0.700

0.701 - 0.800

0.801 - 1.000

HlabisaHlabisa

MtubatubaMtubatuba

The Big 5 False BayThe Big 5 False Bay

Figure three:

The Umkhanyakude

Vulnerability Index (UVI). 48

Method of developing the UVI

The smallest scale at which the above

data was consistently available was at ward

level. In creating the UVI, values for each

indicator and each ward were extracted.

All indicators were standardised so that

the highest value in the range equated to 1,

and the lowest value in the range equated

to 0. In some cases this involved a

transformation of the data so that the

highest figure always equated to the

greatest vulnerability. These values were

then summed to make up the six broad

components, contributing the stated

percentages to the total. In turn, each

component was summed to contribute its

stated percentage to the overall UVI for

each ward. The summed figures for the

wards were then ranked as a percentage of

the whole data set, thus returning a number

indicating the overall vulnerability of each

ward relative to other wards (figure three).

It is important to emphasise that the UVI

is not an absolute measure of vulnerability,

but rather an indicator of relative

vulnerability between wards in the

Umkhanyakude district. The whole of

the Umkhanyakude district is considered

economically and socially vulnerable;

the aim of this mapping is to give some

indication of relative vulnerability,

suggesting which wards may be more or

less vulnerable to the impacts of climate

change than others.

Two factors that would have been ideal

to include in the UVI had to be omitted.

These were HIV and AIDS which would

have contributed to the health and security

component, and environmental sensitivity

which would have been included among

the broad components of vulnerability.

HIV and AIDS were omitted because no

data are available below provincial level.

Land degradation would have been the

indicator selected for environmental

sensitivity. However, in some wards

some of the area is classified as “severely

degraded” while other land within the

same ward is classified as only “marginally

degraded” or even “good”. Creating

an average figure for each ward would

therefore not have been meaningful.

Below: Orphaned children who come to the centre once a day to have a good meal. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

48. As noted earlier, at the time of writing the name of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park was changed to iSimangaliso Wetland Park, applicable as of 1 November 2007. The old name is used in the maps, however, since these were compiled prior to the name change.

uMkhanykudeUVI Index 52702015 52702016

52702013

52702014

52702011

52702012

52701008

52701008 52701004

52702010

52701007

52702005

5270200252702004

52702003

52702001

52704006

52704005

52703003

52704007

52704006

52704009

5270401052704011

52704019

5270401852704017

52704012

52705003

5270401552704016

5270401352704014

52705005

5270500452705001

52705002

NYALAZI RIVER

MTHETHWA

HLABISA NS/NU

SOMKELE

HLABISA

UBATUBA

HLUHLUWE

UBOMBO (NATAL)

UBOMBO NS/NU

MBAZWANA

INGWAVUMA

INGWAVUMA NS/NU

JOZINI

EMANGUSI

MAPUTA

RIVER VIEW

ST.LUCIA ESTUARY

KWAMSAME

20 10 0

Kilometers

5270400452704003

52704001

52704002

52799000

52703002

52703001

52703004

52701002 52701003

52701005

52702009

52702006

52702008

52702007

5270101252701010

52701011

52701009JoziniJozini

UmhlabuyalinganaUmhlabuyalingana

Legend

Municipality

0.000 - 0.200

0.201 - 0.300

0.301 - 0.400

0.401 - 0.500

0.501 - 0.600

0.601 - 0.700

0.701 - 0.800

0.801 - 1.000

HlabisaHlabisa

MtubatubaMtubatuba

The Big 5 False BayThe Big 5 False Bay

Figure three:

The Umkhanyakude

Vulnerability Index (UVI). 48

22 2322

The UVI is intended to indicate which wards

are likely to be the most vulnerable to the

negative impacts of climate change across

the district, while the component maps

provide an additional sense of the possible

nature of vulnerability in those wards. While

there are differences in the vulnerability of

wards across Umkhanyakude, figure three

clearly shows that a large percentage of

wards are classified as comparably

vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,

and are likely to have poor capacities to

adapt. iSimangaliso Park falls into the most

vulnerable category of the UVI (0.8-1), and

in the most vulnerable categories of all

component indices. iSimangaliso Park

(formerly Greater St Lucia Wetland Park),

which is classified as one ward, is the only

ward to do so. Despite its low population,

the park’s inhabitants fall into the highest

risk category for malnutrition, and the

absence of services in these areas

markedly increase their vulnerability rating.

Table two lists all the wards that fall into the

most vulnerable category of the UVI. It also

notes under which component indices these

wards were classified as most vulnerable.

This summary is intended to highlight the

most vulnerable aspects of people’s lives in

the most vulnerable wards. For example, in

ward 52702016 of Jozini municipality, the

demographic structure of households

appears to be the characteristic that makes

households particularly vulnerable. By

contrast, the vulnerability of ward 52704019

in Hlabisa municipality is characterised by

poor interconnectivity, a vulnerable

demographic structure, poor health and

security, as well as a high dependence

on natural resources.

Table two: The most vunerable wards in Umkhanyakude district according to the UVI

In the light of this report as a whole,

it is clear that the majority of communities

in Umkhanyakude are poor and resource-

constrained. Such communities in

KwaZulu-Natal typically face multiple

stresses that limit their livelihoods and

options in the face of change.49 This

makes for complex local dynamics in

assessing vulnerability to climate change,

and developing options of response.

Recent climate research among farmers

in KwaZulu-Natal clearly confirms

this.50 While the vulnerability maps are

not intended to be “desktop guides”

to programming in Umkhanyakude,

they flag particular vulnerabilities

in geographic areas.

Municipalities Wards falling into the most vulnerable UVI category

Inter-connectivity

Economic wellbeing

Health and security

Demo-graphic structure

Natural resource dependency

Land degradation

Jozini 52702015 a a Some minimal

52702016 a Marginal

52702013 a a Marginal

52702008 a Marginal

52702006 a Marginal

Umhlabuya-lingana 52701009 a a a Marginal

52701012 a a a Most moderate

52701008 a Most marginal

Hlabisa 52704003 a a Mixed

52704004 a a Mixed

52704005 a a Mixed

52704007 a a Mixed

52704008 a a Mixed

52704010 a a Mostly poor

52704019 a a a a Mixed

52704018 a a Mixed

Mtubatuba 52705004 a a a a Pristine

iSimangaliso (labelled St Lucia in the maps) 52799000 a a a a a Mixed49. Reid, Massey & Vogel (2005).

50. Ibid.

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in one component index in addition to the UVI

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in two component indices in addition to the UVI

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in three component indices in addition to the UVI

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in four component indices in addition to the UVI

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in all five component indices in addition to the UVI

Ward colour key: Narrow range of vulnerabilities

Wider range of vulnerabilities

22 2322

The UVI is intended to indicate which wards

are likely to be the most vulnerable to the

negative impacts of climate change across

the district, while the component maps

provide an additional sense of the possible

nature of vulnerability in those wards. While

there are differences in the vulnerability of

wards across Umkhanyakude, figure three

clearly shows that a large percentage of

wards are classified as comparably

vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,

and are likely to have poor capacities to

adapt. iSimangaliso Park falls into the most

vulnerable category of the UVI (0.8-1), and

in the most vulnerable categories of all

component indices. iSimangaliso Park

(formerly Greater St Lucia Wetland Park),

which is classified as one ward, is the only

ward to do so. Despite its low population,

the park’s inhabitants fall into the highest

risk category for malnutrition, and the

absence of services in these areas

markedly increase their vulnerability rating.

Table two lists all the wards that fall into the

most vulnerable category of the UVI. It also

notes under which component indices these

wards were classified as most vulnerable.

This summary is intended to highlight the

most vulnerable aspects of people’s lives in

the most vulnerable wards. For example, in

ward 52702016 of Jozini municipality, the

demographic structure of households

appears to be the characteristic that makes

households particularly vulnerable. By

contrast, the vulnerability of ward 52704019

in Hlabisa municipality is characterised by

poor interconnectivity, a vulnerable

demographic structure, poor health and

security, as well as a high dependence

on natural resources.

Table two: The most vunerable wards in Umkhanyakude district according to the UVI

In the light of this report as a whole,

it is clear that the majority of communities

in Umkhanyakude are poor and resource-

constrained. Such communities in

KwaZulu-Natal typically face multiple

stresses that limit their livelihoods and

options in the face of change.49 This

makes for complex local dynamics in

assessing vulnerability to climate change,

and developing options of response.

Recent climate research among farmers

in KwaZulu-Natal clearly confirms

this.50 While the vulnerability maps are

not intended to be “desktop guides”

to programming in Umkhanyakude,

they flag particular vulnerabilities

in geographic areas.

Municipalities Wards falling into the most vulnerable UVI category

Inter-connectivity

Economic wellbeing

Health and security

Demo-graphic structure

Natural resource dependency

Land degradation

Jozini 52702015 a a Some minimal

52702016 a Marginal

52702008 a Marginal

52702006 a Marginal

Umhlabuya-lingana 52701009 a a a Marginal

52701012 a a a Most moderate

52701008 a Most marginal

Hlabisa 52704003 a a Mixed

52704004 a a Mixed

52704005 a a Mixed

52704007 a a Mixed

52704008 a a Mixed

52704010 a a Mostly poor

52704019 a a a a Mixed

52704018 a a Mixed

Mtubatuba 52705004 a a a a Pristine

iSimangaliso (labelled St Lucia in the maps) 52799000 a a a a a Mixed49. Reid, Massey & Vogel (2005).

50. Ibid.

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in one component index in addition to the UVI

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in two component indices in addition to the UVI

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in three component indices in addition to the UVI

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in four component indices in addition to the UVI

Ward categorised as most vulnerable in all five component indices in addition to the UVI

Ward colour key: Narrow range of vulnerabilities

Wider range of vulnerabilities

24 2524

8. Conclusion

In response to climate change vulnerability

in Umkhanyakude, interventions aimed

at enhancing food security must consider

that food security is determined by

agricultural production as well as by

food availability and food markets, food

access, consistency of food supply,

and food utilisation and safety factors.

Vulnerability and adaptive capacity are

profoundly determined by underdevelopment.

Umkhanyakude has a number of particular

risks in this regard, including low levels

of education and literacy, high levels of

unemployment and poverty, and poor

infrastructure and basic services (more

than 75% of households have no basic

sanitation or access to a potable water

supply). High levels of HIV and AIDS,

and numerous orphaned children deepen

the district’s development challenges.

Vulnerability to climate change is

considered a function of exposure,

response and adaptation. In terms

of exposure to future climate-related

risks, a number of vulnerabilities in

Umkhanyakude stand out. Enormous

gaps and uncertainties in the understanding

of climate change and the nature of its

impacts on key areas such as human

health, agriculture, tourism and

ecosystems still exist.

In terms of response, key vulnerabilities

are likely to be a decrease in crop

production potential locally, which will

affect subsistence agriculture, local market

availability and household incomes from

food sales. Possible losses in biodiversity,

including threats to indigenous forests and

conservation areas, will affect wild food

availability and grazing and have negative

impacts on tourism. Further, conflicts of

interest may well arise between the need

to conserve biodiversity in conservation

areas, and other needs such as crops,

grazing, or habitation.

between human health and food insecurity,

and climate change is likely to have a

particular bearing on human health. There

is a likelihood of less water being available

for drinking and sanitation, and thus a

greater risk of water-borne disease. Water

is also necessary for food preparation and

protecting against disease. Further, the

climate is likely to become more suitable

for malaria, with Umkhanyakude being the

most affected district of South Africa.

Like vulnerability, adaptive capacity is

determined by multiple factors. The two

are closely related, and for this reason

when thinking about responses to climate

change, assessments of vulnerability and

adaptive capacity frequently consider

the same or similar factors.

The information provided offers

generalisations about the risks people

in Umkhanyakude are likely to face in

the future, and the factors that need to

be addressed to enhance people’s capacity

to adapt. This report thus provides only

a loose framework in developing

programming and in flagging issues or

areas of particular concern. Successful

programming will depend on the additional,

ongoing input of those that live with

vulnerability, and experience the challenges

of adaptation, together with input from other

stakeholders including government and

non-government practitioners working in

communities in the district .

From the above it is clear that multiple

factors shape people’s food security, and

that the impact of climate change on food

security is highly complex and extends

beyond direct environmental impacts.

Right: School children help to plant and water vegetables at school in KwaZulu-Natal province. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

24 2524

8. Conclusion

In response to climate change vulnerability

in Umkhanyakude, interventions aimed

at enhancing food security must consider

that food security is determined by

agricultural production as well as by

food availability and food markets, food

access, consistency of food supply,

and food utilisation and safety factors.

Vulnerability and adaptive capacity are

profoundly determined by underdevelopment.

Umkhanyakude has a number of particular

risks in this regard, including low levels

of education and literacy, high levels of

unemployment and poverty, and poor

infrastructure and basic services (more

than 75% of households have no basic

sanitation or access to a potable water

supply). High levels of HIV and AIDS,

and numerous orphaned children deepen

the district’s development challenges.

Vulnerability to climate change is

considered a function of exposure,

response and adaptation. In terms

of exposure to future climate-related

risks, a number of vulnerabilities in

Umkhanyakude stand out. Enormous

gaps and uncertainties in the understanding

of climate change and the nature of its

impacts on key areas such as human

health, agriculture, tourism and

ecosystems still exist.

In terms of response, key vulnerabilities

are likely to be a decrease in crop

production potential locally, which will

affect subsistence agriculture, local market

availability and household incomes from

food sales. Possible losses in biodiversity,

including threats to indigenous forests and

conservation areas, will affect wild food

availability and grazing and have negative

impacts on tourism. Further, conflicts of

interest may well arise between the need

to conserve biodiversity in conservation

areas, and other needs such as crops,

grazing, or habitation.

between human health and food insecurity,

and climate change is likely to have a

particular bearing on human health. There

is a likelihood of less water being available

for drinking and sanitation, and thus a

greater risk of water-borne disease. Water

is also necessary for food preparation and

protecting against disease. Further, the

climate is likely to become more suitable

for malaria, with Umkhanyakude being the

most affected district of South Africa.

Like vulnerability, adaptive capacity is

determined by multiple factors. The two

are closely related, and for this reason

when thinking about responses to climate

change, assessments of vulnerability and

adaptive capacity frequently consider

the same or similar factors.

The information provided offers

generalisations about the risks people

in Umkhanyakude are likely to face in

the future, and the factors that need to

be addressed to enhance people’s capacity

to adapt. This report thus provides only

a loose framework in developing

programming and in flagging issues or

areas of particular concern. Successful

programming will depend on the additional,

ongoing input of those that live with

vulnerability, and experience the challenges

of adaptation, together with input from other

stakeholders including government and

non-government practitioners working in

communities in the district .

From the above it is clear that multiple

factors shape people’s food security, and

that the impact of climate change on food

security is highly complex and extends

beyond direct environmental impacts.

Right: School children help to plant and water vegetables at school in KwaZulu-Natal province. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

26 2726

9. Glossary

9. Glossary of terms

Adaptation: Adaptation to climate change

describes the adjustment people make

to the things they do, the way they do

them, or to the organisational or physical

elements of their environment in response

to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate.

Biodiversity: Describes the “natural

variety” of an environment, including

the habitat variety, number of species,

interactions between species, and

genetic variation among individuals

within a species.

Climate change: In the context of this

report, this refers to changes in variability

and/or changes in the average state of

climatic conditions over time, caused by

human activities.

Climate variability: In the context of this

report, this refers to “natural” changes in

climate conditions over time, as opposed

to those that are caused by human

activities. This variability may occur from

year to year or in cycles over decades.

Food security: The physical or economic

access of all people at all times to sufficient,

safe and nutritious food to meet their

dietary needs and food preferences for

an active and healthy life.

Human capital: The capability of

individuals residing in their knowledge,

health and skills.

Hydrological cycle: The continuous

movement, as well as conservation,

of water throughout the earth’s system,

including rainfall, run-off, condensation,

evaporation from water surfaces, plant

transpiration, and infiltration into the soil.

Institutions: Organisations founded

formally or informally for a particular body

of work, as well as social rules, customs,

precedents or constant practices that

characterise society.

Malnutrition: Deficiencies and imbalances

in the macro- or micro- nutrient dietary

content, which may lead to abnormalities

and disease.

Social capital: Features of social

organisation, such as networks,

norms and trust; the sum of resources,

actual and virtual, that accrue to an

individual or a group by virtue of possessing

a durable network; and/or less

institutionalised relationships of

mutual acquaintance and recognition.

Vector-borne disease: A disease is one

in which the pathogenic micro-organism

is transmitted from one infected individual

to another by an arthropod (such

as a tick or mosquito) or other agent,

sometimes with other animals serving

as intermediary hosts.

Vulnerability: Reflects the extent to which

a system (or community) reacts adversely

to a crisis or hazardous event. Vulnerability

denotes the likelihood of exposure and

sensitivity to livelihood shocks, thus having

an external component (the shocks

or stresses to which a household or

community are subjected), and an internal

component (the negative response of a

system or inadequate capacity to cope).

Wasting: Children whose weight for

height is significantly below the norm.

10. References

Adger, W. N. & Vincent, K. (2005)

Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. Comptes

Rendus Geoscience, 337, 399–410.

AIACC (2004) Messages from Dakar: Report

of the Second AIACC Regional Workshop

for Africa and the Indian Islands, Senegal,

2004. Assessments of Impacts and

Adaptations to Climate Change Project

(AIACC), funded by the Global

Environmental Facility.

Alberini, A., Chiabai, A. & Muehlenbachs,

L. (2006) Using expert judgment to assess

adaptive capacity to climate change:

Evidence from a conjoint choice survey.

Global Environmental Change, 16, 123–144.

Andrews, G., Skinner, D. & Zuma, K. (2006)

Epidemiology of health and vulnerability

among children orphaned and made

vulnerable by HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan

Africa. AIDS Care, 18, 269–276.

AU (2005) Status of Food Security and

Prospects for Agricultural Development in

Africa. AU Ministerial Conference of Ministers

of Agriculture January 31– February 1, 2006.

Bamako, Mali, African Union.

Boardley, S. & Schulze, R. E. (2005)

Chapter Twenty-Two: Why adopt a

vulnerability approach? In Schulze, R. E.

(Ed.) Climate Change and Water Resources

in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios,

Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation.

Pretoria, Water Research Commission.

Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C.,

Githeko, A., Medany, M., Osman-Elasha, B.,

Tabo, R. & Yanda, P. (2007) Africa. In Parry,

M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der

Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.)

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation

and Vulnerability to Climate Change.

Contribution of Working Group II to the

Fourth Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Brooks, N., Adger, W. N. & Kelly, P. M.

(2005) The Determinants of Vulnerability

and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level

and the Implications for Adaptation.

Comrie, A. (2007) Climate Change and

Human Health. Geography Compass,

1/3 2007, 325–339.

Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Le Sueur, D.

& Sharp, B. L. (2004a) Exploring 30 years

of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal,

South Africa: Part II. The impact of non-

climatic factors. Durban, Malaria Research

Programme, Medical Research Council.

Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Nawn, J. B.,

Le Sueur, D. & Sharp, B. L. (2004b)

Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in

KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Part I. The

impact of climatic factors. Tropical Medicine

and International Health, 9, 1247–1257.

Craig, M. H. & Sharp, B. L. (2000)

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment.

Health Section. Part One: Malaria. The

South African Country Studies Report.

National Malaria Research Programme,

Medical Research Council.

DEAT (2006) South Africa Environment

Outlook: A report on the state of the

environment, Pretoria, Department

of Environmental Affairs and Tourism.

DoA (2006) Food Insecurity in

Umkhanyakude: Poster. Data sources:

Department of Agriculture; ARC-ISCW;

Statistics South Africa – GHS (2005); 2001

Census; National Food Consumption Survey

(2000). Human Sciences Research Council.

Eeley, H. A. C., Lawes, M. J. & Piper, S. E.

(1999) The influence of climate change on

the distribution of indigenous forest in

KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Journal of

Biogeography, 26, 595–617.

FAO (2007) Assessment of the World

Food Security Situation. Committee on

World Food Security Thirty-third Session,

7 – 10 May 2007. Rome, Committee on

World Food Security.

Fischlin, A., Midgley, G. F., Price, J. T.,

Leemans, R., Gopal, B., Turley, C.,

Rounsevell, M. D. A., Dube, O. P., Tarazona,

J. & Velichko, A. A. (2007) Ecosystems, their

properties, goods, and services. In Parry, M.

L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der

Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.) Climate

Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and

Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group

II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

Fischer, F., Shah, M. & van Velthuizen, H.

(2002) Climate Change and Agricultural

Vulnerability. A special report, prepared

by the International Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis under United Nations

Institutional Contract Agreement No. 1113

on “Climate Change and Agricultural

26 2726

9. Glossary

9. Glossary of terms

Adaptation: Adaptation to climate change

describes the adjustment people make

to the things they do, the way they do

them, or to the organisational or physical

elements of their environment in response

to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate.

Biodiversity: Describes the “natural

variety” of an environment, including

the habitat variety, number of species,

interactions between species, and

genetic variation among individuals

within a species.

Climate change: In the context of this

report, this refers to changes in variability

and/or changes in the average state of

climatic conditions over time, caused by

human activities.

Climate variability: In the context of this

report, this refers to “natural” changes in

climate conditions over time, as opposed

to those that are caused by human

activities. This variability may occur from

year to year or in cycles over decades.

Food security: The physical or economic

access of all people at all times to sufficient,

safe and nutritious food to meet their

dietary needs and food preferences for

an active and healthy life.

Human capital: The capability of

individuals residing in their knowledge,

health and skills.

Hydrological cycle: The continuous

movement, as well as conservation,

of water throughout the earth’s system,

including rainfall, run-off, condensation,

evaporation from water surfaces, plant

transpiration, and infiltration into the soil.

Institutions: Organisations founded

formally or informally for a particular body

of work, as well as social rules, customs,

precedents or constant practices that

characterise society.

Malnutrition: Deficiencies and imbalances

in the macro- or micro- nutrient dietary

content, which may lead to abnormalities

and disease.

Social capital: Features of social

organisation, such as networks,

norms and trust; the sum of resources,

actual and virtual, that accrue to an

individual or a group by virtue of possessing

a durable network; and/or less

institutionalised relationships of

mutual acquaintance and recognition.

Vector-borne disease: A disease is one

in which the pathogenic micro-organism

is transmitted from one infected individual

to another by an arthropod (such

as a tick or mosquito) or other agent,

sometimes with other animals serving

as intermediary hosts.

Vulnerability: Reflects the extent to which

a system (or community) reacts adversely

to a crisis or hazardous event. Vulnerability

denotes the likelihood of exposure and

sensitivity to livelihood shocks, thus having

an external component (the shocks

or stresses to which a household or

community are subjected), and an internal

component (the negative response of a

system or inadequate capacity to cope).

Wasting: Children whose weight for

height is significantly below the norm.

10. References

Adger, W. N. & Vincent, K. (2005)

Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. Comptes

Rendus Geoscience, 337, 399–410.

AIACC (2004) Messages from Dakar: Report

of the Second AIACC Regional Workshop

for Africa and the Indian Islands, Senegal,

2004. Assessments of Impacts and

Adaptations to Climate Change Project

(AIACC), funded by the Global

Environmental Facility.

Alberini, A., Chiabai, A. & Muehlenbachs,

L. (2006) Using expert judgment to assess

adaptive capacity to climate change:

Evidence from a conjoint choice survey.

Andrews, G., Skinner, D. & Zuma, K. (2006)

Epidemiology of health and vulnerability

among children orphaned and made

vulnerable by HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan

Africa. AIDS Care, 18, 269–276.

AU (2005) Status of Food Security and

Prospects for Agricultural Development in

Africa. AU Ministerial Conference of Ministers

of Agriculture January 31– February 1, 2006.

Bamako, Mali, African Union.

Boardley, S. & Schulze, R. E. (2005)

Chapter Twenty-Two: Why adopt a

vulnerability approach? In Schulze, R. E.

(Ed.) Climate Change and Water Resources

Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C.,

Githeko, A., Medany, M., Osman-Elasha, B.,

Tabo, R. & Yanda, P. (2007) Africa. In Parry,

M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der

Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.)

and Vulnerability to Climate Change.

Contribution of Working Group II to the

Fourth Assessment Report of the

Brooks, N., Adger, W. N. & Kelly, P. M.

(2005) The Determinants of Vulnerability

and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level

and the Implications for Adaptation.

Comrie, A. (2007) Climate Change and

Human Health. Geography Compass,

1/3 2007, 325–339.

Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Le Sueur, D.

& Sharp, B. L. (2004a) Exploring 30 years

of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal,

South Africa: Part II. The impact of non-

climatic factors. Durban, Malaria Research

Programme, Medical Research Council.

Craig, M. H., Kleinschmidt, I., Nawn, J. B.,

Le Sueur, D. & Sharp, B. L. (2004b)

Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in

KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Part I. The

impact of climatic factors. Tropical Medicine

and International Health, 9, 1247–1257.

Craig, M. H. & Sharp, B. L. (2000)

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment.

Health Section. Part One: Malaria. The

South African Country Studies Report.

National Malaria Research Programme,

Medical Research Council.

DEAT (2006) South Africa Environment

Outlook: A report on the state of the

environment, Pretoria, Department

of Environmental Affairs and Tourism.

DoA (2006) Food Insecurity in

Umkhanyakude: Poster. Data sources:

Department of Agriculture; ARC-ISCW;

Statistics South Africa – GHS (2005); 2001

Census; National Food Consumption Survey

(2000). Human Sciences Research Council.

Eeley, H. A. C., Lawes, M. J. & Piper, S. E.

(1999) The influence of climate change on

the distribution of indigenous forest in

KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Journal of

Biogeography, 26, 595–617.

FAO (2007) Assessment of the World

Food Security Situation. Committee on

World Food Security Thirty-third Session,

7 – 10 May 2007. Rome, Committee on

World Food Security.

Fischlin, A., Midgley, G. F., Price, J. T.,

Leemans, R., Gopal, B., Turley, C.,

Rounsevell, M. D. A., Dube, O. P., Tarazona,

J. & Velichko, A. A. (2007) Ecosystems, their

properties, goods, and services. In Parry, M.

L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der

Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.) Climate

Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and

Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group

II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

Fischer, F., Shah, M. & van Velthuizen, H.

(2002) Climate Change and Agricultural

Vulnerability. A special report, prepared

by the International Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis under United Nations

Institutional Contract Agreement No. 1113

on “Climate Change and Agricultural

Vulnerability” as a contribution to the World

Summit on Sustainable Development,

Johannesburg 2002.

Freeman, M. & Nkomo, N. (2006)

Guardianship of orphans and vulnerable

children. A survey of current and prospective

South African caregivers. AIDS Care,

18, 302–310.

Fussel, H. M. (2005) Vulnerability in Climate

Change Research: A Comprehensive

Conceptual Framework. University of

California International and Area Studies.

Githeko, A. K., Lindsay, S. W., Confalonieri,

U. E. & Patz, J. A. (2000) Climate change

and vector-borne diseases: a regional

analysis. Bulletin of the World Health

Organisation, 78, 1136-1148.

Gommes, R., du Guerny, J., Glantz, M. H.

& Hsu, L. N. (2004) Climate and HIV/AIDS:

A hotspots analysis for Early Warning Rapid

Response Systems. UNDP, FAO and NCAR.

Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. S. I. & Brklacich,

M. (2005) Climate change and food security.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal

Society B 360, 2139-2148.

IDT (2007) Poverty Eradication: 04

Umkhanyakude DC27. http://www.idt.org.za/.

Independent Development Trust.

Jarvis, A., Fisher, M., P., J., Cook, S. &

Guarino, L. (2006) Agriculture, Risk and

Climate Change. http://www.cgiar.org/

pdf/2006_Jarvis%20and%20others-Ag_

Risk_ClimateChange_2006_FINAL.pdf,

Consultative Group in International

Agricultural Research.

Karumbidza, J. B. (2007) uMkhanyakude:

Livelihood Profile of uMkhanyakude and

Situational Analysis of DSD Services in

the node. Second Draft. South African

Department of Social Development.

Kleinschmidt, I., Sharp, B. L., Clarke, G. P.

Y., Curtis, B. & Fraser, C. (2001) Use of

Generalized Linear Mixed Models in the

Spatial Analysis of Small-Area Malaria

Incidence Rates in KwaZulu Natal, South

Africa. American Journal of Epidemiology,

153, 1213–1221.

Korenromp, E. L., Williams, B. G., De Vlas,

S. J., Gouws, E., Gilks, C. F., Ghys, P. D.

& Nahlen, B. L. (2005) Malaria attributable

to the HIV-1 epidemic, sub-Saharan

Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases,

11, 1410–1419.

Mano, R., Isaacson, B. & Dardel, P. (2003)

Identifying Policy Determinants of Food

Security Response and Recovery in the

SADC Region: The Case of the 2002 Food

Emergency. Keynote paper prepared for the

FANRPAN Regional Dialogue on Agricultural

Recovery, Food Security and Trade Policies

in Southern Africa, Gaborone, Botswana,

26–27 March 2003.

Meadows, M. E. & Hoffman, T. M. (2002)

The Nature, Extent and Causes of Land

Degradation in South Africa; legacy of

the past, lessons for the future? Area, 33,

429–437.

Land degradation and climate change in

South Africa. The Geographical Journal,

169, 168–177.

Mukheibir, P. & Sparks, D. (2003) Water

resource management and climate change

in South Africa: Visions, driving factors and

sustainable development indicators: Report

for Phase I of the Sustainable Development

and Climate Change project. Energy and

Development Research Centre, University

of Cape Town.

Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., Burkett, V. R.,

Codignotto, J. O., Hay, J. E., McLean, R. F.,

Ragoonaden, S. & Woodroffe, C. D. (2007)

Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In

Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P.,

van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.)

and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working

Group II to the Fourth Assessment

Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge

University Press.

O’Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U.,

Venema, H., Aandahl, G., Tompkins, H.,

Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nygaarda,

L. & West, J. (2004) Mapping vulnerability to

multiple stressors: climate change and

globalization in India. Global Environmental

Change, 14, 303-313.

Olwoch, J. M. (2005) Climate change and

tick-host relationships in Africa. Faculty of

Natural & Agricultural Sciences. Pretoria,

University of Pretoria.

Piot, P. & Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2002)

2001-2002 IFPRI Annual Report Essay

AIDS: The New Challenge to Food Security.

Washington DC, International Food Policy

Research Institute.

Poulsen, H. (2006) The gendered impact of

HIV/AIDS on education in South Africa and

Swaziland: Save the Children's experiences.

Gender & Development, 14, 47–56.

Reid, P., Massey, R. & Vogel, C.

(2005) Chapter Twenty-Five: Climate

and Development:

Experiences of Farmers in KwaZulu-Natal,

South Africa. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.) Climate

Change and Water Resources in Southern

Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts,

Vulnerabilities and Adaptation. Pretoria,

Water Research Commission.

Rosegrant, M. W. & Cline, S. A. (2003)

Global Food Security: Challenges and

Policies. Science, 302, 1917–1919.

The Royal Society (2005) Food crops in

a changing climate: Report of a Royal

Society Discussion Meeting held in April

2005. Royal Society Policy Document 10/05.

The Royal Society.

Schulze, R. E. (2005a) Chapter Eight: The

Southern African Quaternary Catchments

Database: Refinements to, and Links with,

the ACRU System as a Framework for

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on

Water Resources. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.)

Climate Change and Water Resources

Schulze, R. E. (2005b) Chapter Nine:

An Assessment of Impacts of Climate

Change on Agrohydrological Responses

over Southern Africa. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.)

Climate Change and Water Resources in

Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios,

Schulze, R. E. (2005c) Chapter One:

Looking into the Future: Why Research

Impacts of Possible Climate Change on

Hydrological Responses in Southern Africa?

In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.) Climate Change and

Water Resources in Southern Africa:

Studies on Scenarios, Impacts,

Schulze, R. E. (2005d) Chapter Six:

Setting the Scene: The Current

Hydroclimatic “Landscape” in Southern

Africa. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.) Climate

Sen, A. K. (1981) Poverty and famines:

an essay on entitlement and deprivation,

Oxford, Clarendon Press.

Sterrett, C. (2007) Where has all the water

gone? Understanding climate change from

a community perspective Northern KwaZulu-

Natal, South Africa. Oxfam Australia.

Swaminathan, M. S. (2000) Climate change

and food security. In Gomez-Echeveri, C.

(Ed.) Climate Change and Development.

UNDP Regional Bureau for Latin.

Thomas, D. S. G. & Twyman, C. (2005)

Equity and justice in climate change

adaptation amongst natural-resource-

dependent societies. Global Environmental

Change Part A, 15, 115 124.

Turpie, J., Winkler, H., Spalding-Fecher, R.

& Midgley, G. (2002) Economic Impacts of

Climate Change in South Africa: A

Preliminary Analysis of Unmitigated Damage

Costs. Cape.

van Lieshout, M., Kovats, R. S., Livermore,

M. T. J. & Martens, P. (2004) Climate change

and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate

and socio-economic scenarios. Global

Environmental Change, 14, 87–99.

USAID (2003) RCSA Food Security

Strategic Option: Synthesis and Analysis

of Selected Readings. Report prepared by

Nathan and Associates for USAID Regional

Centre for Africa. USAID.

Vincent, K. (2004) Creating an index of

social vulnerability to climate change for

Africa. Working Paper 56. Norwich, Tyndall

Centre for Climate Change Research.

Vincent, K. (2007) Gendered vulnerability to

climate change in Limpopo Province, South

Africa. Unpublished Doctoral Thesis. Tyndall

Centre for Climate Change Research School

of Environmental Sciences. University of

East Anglia.

Zondi, T. (2004) Health Systems Trust

Initiative for sub-district exit report for

Umkhanyakude District Municipality,

KwaZulu-Natal Province. March 2002 –

September 2004. An end of project report

on the Health Systems Trust’s commissioned

role to facilitate the Rural District Health

Systems Project (RDHSP) as per the

European Union tender (Tender RT 1397

GP). Pietermarizburg, Health Systems Trust.

10. References

Vulnerability” as a contribution to the World

Summit on Sustainable Development,

Johannesburg 2002.

Freeman, M. & Nkomo, N. (2006)

Guardianship of orphans and vulnerable

children. A survey of current and prospective

South African caregivers. AIDS Care,

18, 302–310.

Fussel, H. M. (2005) Vulnerability in Climate

Change Research: A Comprehensive

Conceptual Framework. University of

California International and Area Studies.

Githeko, A. K., Lindsay, S. W., Confalonieri,

U. E. & Patz, J. A. (2000) Climate change

and vector-borne diseases: a regional

analysis. Bulletin of the World Health

Organisation, 78, 1136-1148.

Gommes, R., du Guerny, J., Glantz, M. H.

& Hsu, L. N. (2004) Climate and HIV/AIDS:

A hotspots analysis for Early Warning Rapid

Response Systems. UNDP, FAO and NCAR.

Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. S. I. & Brklacich,

M. (2005) Climate change and food security.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal

Society B 360, 2139-2148.

IDT (2007) Poverty Eradication: 04

Umkhanyakude DC27. http://www.idt.org.za/.

Independent Development Trust.

Jarvis, A., Fisher, M., P., J., Cook, S. &

Guarino, L. (2006) Agriculture, Risk and

Climate Change. http://www.cgiar.org/

pdf/2006_Jarvis%20and%20others-Ag_

Risk_ClimateChange_2006_FINAL.pdf,

Consultative Group in International

Agricultural Research.

Karumbidza, J. B. (2007) uMkhanyakude:

Livelihood Profile of uMkhanyakude and

Situational Analysis of DSD Services in

the node. Second Draft. South African

Department of Social Development.

Kleinschmidt, I., Sharp, B. L., Clarke, G. P.

Y., Curtis, B. & Fraser, C. (2001) Use of

Generalized Linear Mixed Models in the

Spatial Analysis of Small-Area Malaria

Incidence Rates in KwaZulu Natal, South

Africa. American Journal of Epidemiology,

153, 1213–1221.

Korenromp, E. L., Williams, B. G., De Vlas,

S. J., Gouws, E., Gilks, C. F., Ghys, P. D.

& Nahlen, B. L. (2005) Malaria attributable

to the HIV-1 epidemic, sub-Saharan

Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases,

11, 1410–1419.

Mano, R., Isaacson, B. & Dardel, P. (2003)

Identifying Policy Determinants of Food

Security Response and Recovery in the

SADC Region: The Case of the 2002 Food

Emergency. Keynote paper prepared for the

FANRPAN Regional Dialogue on Agricultural

Recovery, Food Security and Trade Policies

in Southern Africa, Gaborone, Botswana,

26–27 March 2003.

The Nature, Extent and Causes of Land

Degradation in South Africa; legacy of

the past, lessons for the future? Area, 33,

429–437.

Land degradation and climate change in

South Africa. The Geographical Journal,

169, 168–177.

Mukheibir, P. & Sparks, D. (2003) Water

resource management and climate change

in South Africa: Visions, driving factors and

sustainable development indicators: Report

for Phase I of the Sustainable Development

and Climate Change project. Energy and

Development Research Centre, University

of Cape Town.

Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., Burkett, V. R.,

Codignotto, J. O., Hay, J. E., McLean, R. F.,

Ragoonaden, S. & Woodroffe, C. D. (2007)

Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In

Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P.,

van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.)

and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working

Group II to the Fourth Assessment

Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change. Cambridge, Cambridge

University Press.

O’Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U.,

Venema, H., Aandahl, G., Tompkins, H.,

Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nygaarda,

L. & West, J. (2004) Mapping vulnerability to

multiple stressors: climate change and

globalization in India. Global Environmental

Change, 14, 303-313.

Olwoch, J. M. (2005) Climate change and

tick-host relationships in Africa. Faculty of

Natural & Agricultural Sciences. Pretoria,

University of Pretoria.

Piot, P. & Pinstrup-Andersen, P. (2002)

2001-2002 IFPRI Annual Report Essay

AIDS: The New Challenge to Food Security.

Washington DC, International Food Policy

Research Institute.

Poulsen, H. (2006) The gendered impact of

HIV/AIDS on education in South Africa and

Swaziland: Save the Children's experiences.

Gender & Development, 14, 47–56.

Reid, P., Massey, R. & Vogel, C.

(2005) Chapter Twenty-Five: Climate

and Development:

Experiences of Farmers in KwaZulu-Natal,

South Africa. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.) Climate

Rosegrant, M. W. & Cline, S. A. (2003)

Global Food Security: Challenges and

Policies. Science, 302, 1917–1919.

The Royal Society (2005) Food crops in

a changing climate: Report of a Royal

Society Discussion Meeting held in April

2005. Royal Society Policy Document 10/05.

The Royal Society.

Schulze, R. E. (2005a) Chapter Eight: The

Southern African Quaternary Catchments

Database: Refinements to, and Links with,

the ACRU System as a Framework for

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on

Water Resources. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.)

Climate Change and Water Resources

Schulze, R. E. (2005b) Chapter Nine:

An Assessment of Impacts of Climate

Change on Agrohydrological Responses

over Southern Africa. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.)

Climate Change and Water Resources in

Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios,

Schulze, R. E. (2005c) Chapter One:

Looking into the Future: Why Research

Impacts of Possible Climate Change on

Hydrological Responses in Southern Africa?

In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.) Climate Change and

Water Resources in Southern Africa:

Studies on Scenarios, Impacts,

Schulze, R. E. (2005d) Chapter Six:

Setting the Scene: The Current

Hydroclimatic “Landscape” in Southern

Africa. In Schulze, R. E. (Ed.) Climate

Sen, A. K. (1981) Poverty and famines:

an essay on entitlement and deprivation,

Oxford, Clarendon Press.

Sterrett, C. (2007) Where has all the water

gone? Understanding climate change from

a community perspective Northern KwaZulu-

Natal, South Africa. Oxfam Australia.

Swaminathan, M. S. (2000) Climate change

and food security. In Gomez-Echeveri, C.

(Ed.) Climate Change and Development.

UNDP Regional Bureau for Latin.

Thomas, D. S. G. & Twyman, C. (2005)

Equity and justice in climate change

adaptation amongst natural-resource-

dependent societies. Global Environmental

Change Part A, 15, 115 124.

Turpie, J., Winkler, H., Spalding-Fecher, R.

& Midgley, G. (2002) Economic Impacts of

Climate Change in South Africa: A

Preliminary Analysis of Unmitigated Damage

Costs. Cape.

van Lieshout, M., Kovats, R. S., Livermore,

M. T. J. & Martens, P. (2004) Climate change

and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate

and socio-economic scenarios. Global

Environmental Change, 14, 87–99.

USAID (2003) RCSA Food Security

Strategic Option: Synthesis and Analysis

of Selected Readings. Report prepared by

Nathan and Associates for USAID Regional

Centre for Africa. USAID.

Vincent, K. (2004) Creating an index of

social vulnerability to climate change for

Africa. Working Paper 56. Norwich, Tyndall

Centre for Climate Change Research.

Vincent, K. (2007) Gendered vulnerability to

climate change in Limpopo Province, South

Africa. Unpublished Doctoral Thesis. Tyndall

Centre for Climate Change Research School

of Environmental Sciences. University of

East Anglia.

Zondi, T. (2004) Health Systems Trust

Initiative for sub-district exit report for

Umkhanyakude District Municipality,

KwaZulu-Natal Province. March 2002 –

September 2004. An end of project report

on the Health Systems Trust’s commissioned

role to facilitate the Rural District Health

Systems Project (RDHSP) as per the

European Union tender (Tender RT 1397

GP). Pietermarizburg, Health Systems Trust.

10. References

Contact details

30 3130

Oxfam Australia

132 Leicester Street,

Carlton, Victoria, Australia 3053

Telephone +61 3 9289 9444

www.oxfam.org.au

ABN 18 055 208 636

For more information on Oxfam Australia’s

work in South Africa visit Oxfam KIC at

http://hivaids.oxfamkic.org and click

on the “Communities: Oxfam in

South Africa” link.

Right: 95% of the population in UMkhanyakude district are rural dwellers and many households rely at least partially on subsistence agriculture to meet food requirements. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

Back cover: Workers heading home at the end of the day. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

NAMIBIA

UpingtonKimberley

Mafikeng

Klerksdorp

Polokwane

Pretoria

Johannesburg

Nelspruit

Hoedspruit

Bloemfontein

Umtata

Cape TownMossel Bay

Port Elizabeth

East London

Durban

Pietermaritzburg

Hluhluwe

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

ZIMBABWE

NORTHERN CAPE

WESTERN CAPE

EASTERN CAPE

FREE STATE

NORTH WEST GAUTENG

MPUMALANGA

KWAZULUNATAL

INDIANOCEAN

ATLANTICOCEAN

LIMPOPO

Contact details

30 3130

Oxfam Australia

132 Leicester Street,

Carlton, Victoria, Australia 3053

Telephone +61 3 9289 9444

www.oxfam.org.au

ABN 18 055 208 636

For more information on Oxfam Australia’s

work in South Africa visit Oxfam KIC at

http://hivaids.oxfamkic.org and click

on the “Communities: Oxfam in

South Africa” link.

Right: 95% of the population in UMkhanyakude district are rural dwellers and many households rely at least partially on subsistence agriculture to meet food requirements. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

Back cover: Workers heading home at the end of the day. Photo: Matthew Willman/OxfamAUS.

NAMIBIA

UpingtonKimberley

Mafikeng

Klerksdorp

Polokwane

Pretoria

Johannesburg

Nelspruit

Hoedspruit

Bloemfontein

Umtata

Cape TownMossel Bay

Port Elizabeth

East London

Durban

Pietermaritzburg

Hluhluwe

BOTSWANA

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

ZIMBABWE

NORTHERN CAPE

WESTERN CAPE

EASTERN CAPE

FREE STATE

NORTH WEST GAUTENG

MPUMALANGA

KWAZULUNATAL

INDIANOCEAN

ATLANTICOCEAN

LIMPOPO

Oxfam Australia is part of a global movement of dedicated

people working hard to fight poverty and injustice.

To learn more about Oxfam in action visit www.oxfam.org.au

ISBN 978-1-875870-72-1OXF1

research 2008: vulnerability to climate change (2008)

Documents