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12/13/2011
1
Reducing green house gas emissions from land use changes for
oil palm development
Roundtable 9, RSPO, 22-24 November, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
Fahmuddin Agus1, Petrus Gunarso2, Bambang H. Saharjo3, Abdul
Rashid4, K.T. Joseph5, Khali Hamzah4, Nancy Harris6,
and Meine van Noordwijk7
1Indonesian Soil Research Institute, Bogor, Indonesia; 2Tropenbos International Indonesia Programme,
Bogor, Indonesia; 3Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia; 4University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia; 5Forest Research Institute Malaysia, Kepong, Malaysia ; 6Winrock International, Little Rock, USA, 7World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya
KohKohKohKoh and and and and WilcoveWilcoveWilcoveWilcove 2008200820082008
Conservation Conservation Conservation Conservation Letters XX, 1Letters XX, 1Letters XX, 1Letters XX, 1----5555....
“…….during the period 1990–2005,
55%–59% of oil palm expansion in Malaysia, and at least
56% of that in Indonesia
occurred at the expense of forests.”
Widely held view that is unsubstantiated by scientific studies.
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2
Objectives
� Analyze land use changes in OP producing countries (Indonesia, Malaysia and PNG)
� Estimate of the rate of emissions
� Document sources and dimensions of GHG emissions (Peat & LUC) and CO2 removals (Plantations)
� Evaluate uncertainty in emission estimates
� Model emission reduction scenarios
LU/LC spatial
analysis
Historical
LUC matrix
Govt. Policy
Market pulls
Projected LUC
C fluxes
- Soil
- Burning
C stocks -Plant Biomass
-Necromass
-Soil
Historical and predicted
emission under BAU
Mitigation
scenarios
Emission under
different scenarios
Legal and
institutional
systems
EF, R
F
Coverage of the study
12/13/2011
3
0~250 t C/ha
Emission Factors
60
cm
(2) Soil C oxidation
30-50 t C/ha
(1) Change in time average C stock
300-800 t C/m/ha in peat soilCompare to 15-200 t C/ha in surface layer of mineral soil
CH4 & N2O?
(3) Peat (soil) burning
1. Above ground C stock 1. Above ground C stock 1. Above ground C stock 1. Above ground C stock
0
50
100
150
200
250
Hardja et al. (2011)
Various sources
Bio
ma
ss C
(t/
ha
)
Forest
PlantationField crops,
grass
Source of significant uncertainty in GHG emission estimates
from LUCEmission = ∆C * 44/12 (to convert C to CO2)
12/13/2011
4
2.2.2.2.a. a. a. a. Emission from peat soil [oxidation]Emission from peat soil [oxidation]Emission from peat soil [oxidation]Emission from peat soil [oxidation]Hooijer (2010)
Emission = 0.91 * drainage depth (cm) [t CO2/ha/yr]
Modified to discount for root respiration, based on (Handayani, 2010)
Emission = 0.7 * 0.91 * drainage depth (cm) [t CO2/ha/yr]
= 0.7 * 0.91 * 60 cm drainage depth (BMP)
= 38 t CO2/ha/yr
Range in literatures 23 to 90 t CO2/ha/yr � another source of uncertainty
2.b. 2.b. 2.b. 2.b. Emission from mineral soilEmission from mineral soilEmission from mineral soilEmission from mineral soil
Initial LU Successive LU Remarks
Logged forest
Oil palm 32% and 15% soil C increase in 0-45 cm (Mathews et al., 2010)
Forest
Forest
Degraded land
Long term cultivation
Degraded’ land
Plantation
30% soil C decrease (Murty et al. 2002) from 120±60 t/ha (IPCC, 2006)
50% decrease
30% increase (Germer and Sauerborn, 2008)
Emission = ∆C * 44/12 for one agronomic cycle of~25 yr
OP Development in SumatraOP Development in SumatraOP Development in SumatraOP Development in Sumatra
1.0
2.2
3.03.3
0.3
0.7
1.0
1.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1990 2000 2005 2010
Are
a (
Mh
a)
Peatland
Minaral soil
2000 20102005
12/13/2011
5
Land use change matrix, Sumatra, Mineral soil 2000-2005
No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Land use types Symbol UDF DIF USF UDM DSF DIM RPL OPL TPL
UNDISTURBED FORESTUDF 5,749,375 3,139
DISTURBED FORESTDIF 5,753,788 6,535 11,043 4,129
UNDISTURBED SWAMP FORESTUSF 48,160 29 283
UNDISTURBED MANGROVEUDM 198,110 1,682
DISTURBED SWAMP FORESTDSF 545,611 5,657 12,280 9,377
DISTURBED MANGROVEDIM 304,122 892
RUBBER PLANTATIONRPL 1,677,071 519,338
OIL PALM PLANTATIONOPL 2,188,807
TIMBER PLANTATIONTPL 1,460 823,063
MIXED TREE CROPSMTC 415 180,844
SCHRUB SCH 48 11,937 1,243
SWAMP SCHRUB SSH 6,133 6,163 276
DRY CULTIVATION LANDDCL 162 15,300
SETTLEMENTS SET 55
GRASS GRS 1,702 2,322
SWAMP GRASS SGR 28
RICE FIELD RCF 12,398
COASTAL FISH PONDCFP 454
BARELAND BRL 11,709 13,647 37,890
MINING MIN 1,267
WATER BODIES WAB
CLOUD NCL
Total 2005 (ha) 5,749,375 5,756,927 48,160 198,110 545,640 305,804 1,709,460 2,978,490 876,066
OP Development in Indonesia on peat OP Development in Indonesia on peat OP Development in Indonesia on peat OP Development in Indonesia on peat
and mineral soilsand mineral soilsand mineral soilsand mineral soils
1.22
2.893.99
4.74
0.09
0.74
1.10
2.90
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1990 2000 2005 2010
Are
a (m
illio
n h
a)
Papua
Kalimantan
Sumatra
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6
Development of OP plantation in Indonesia’s Development of OP plantation in Indonesia’s Development of OP plantation in Indonesia’s Development of OP plantation in Indonesia’s
three major islands on peat and mineral soilsthree major islands on peat and mineral soilsthree major islands on peat and mineral soilsthree major islands on peat and mineral soils
OP on peatland 20%, 20%, 20%, 22%, respectively
Better to use
the term
mineral soils
1.07
2.954.10
6.02
0.27
0.72
1.05
1.70
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1990 2000 2005 2010
Are
a (
Mil
lio
n h
a)
Peatland
Mineral soil
Land use change to OP from 1990Land use change to OP from 1990Land use change to OP from 1990Land use change to OP from 1990----2010201020102010
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
UN
DIS
T F
OR
ES
T
DIS
T F
OR
ES
T
UN
DIS
T S
WA
MP
FO
R
UN
DIS
T M
AN
GR
OV
E
DIS
T S
WA
MP
FO
RE
ST
DIS
T M
AN
GR
OV
E
OIL
PA
LM
19
90
RU
BB
ER
TIM
BE
R P
LA
NT
AT
ION
TIM
BE
R P
LA
NT
AT
ION
SH
RU
B
SW
AM
P S
HR
UB
AN
NU
AL
UP
LA
ND
GR
AS
S
SW
AM
P G
RA
SS
RIC
E F
IEL
D
BA
RE
LA
ND
OT
HE
RS
Are
a (
Mil
lio
nh
a)
Non-peatland
Peatland
Non-forest, 55%
17
%
Forest, 28%
12/13/2011
7
DDDDeforestationeforestationeforestationeforestation of disturbed and undisturbed of disturbed and undisturbed of disturbed and undisturbed of disturbed and undisturbed
forests (ha/yr, %), inforests (ha/yr, %), inforests (ha/yr, %), inforests (ha/yr, %), in the 3 islands of the 3 islands of the 3 islands of the 3 islands of Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia
2000-2005 2005-2010
34,257
, 7%
25,850 , 6%
149,939 ,
33%
243,631 ,
54%
OP
Timber
Shrub
Others
237,530 ,
27%
53,849 , 6%
286,958 ,
32%
311,963 ,
35%
OP
Timber
Shrub
Others
More than 30% deforestation ended up in shrub which is prone to fire
Development of OP Plantation in Malaysia Development of OP Plantation in Malaysia Development of OP Plantation in Malaysia Development of OP Plantation in Malaysia
Year OP on Peatland (ha)
Total OP plantation (ha)
% OP on Peatland
Peninsular1990 111,954 1,418,263 0.8
2006 212,924 2,545,893 8.3
2009 226,532 2,683,217 8,4
Sarawak2000 40,010 473,114 3.1
2005 193,031 543,514 15,0
2009 434,057 1,164,386 33.7
Sabah2000 11,139 1,115,020 9,5
2005 18,675 1,151756 15,9
2009 21,043 1,452,199 18,0
Malaysia
2009 681,632 5,299,802 13%
12/13/2011
8
Oil Palm
Oil Palm0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1990 2000 2005 2010
Development of OP Plantation in PNG
Initial land uses that
changed to OP in
three periods, PNG
4,302 ,
12%
11,854 ,
35%
1,995 , 6%
16,123 ,
47%
Primary forest
Secondary forest
Agriculture
Shrub
1990-2000
316 , 2%
12,066 ,
64%
1,683 , 9%
4,629 ,
25% Primary forest
Secondary forest
Agriculture
Shrub
2000-2005316 , 1%
25,214 ,
59%
1,968 , 5%
15,108 ,
35%
Primary forest
Secondary forest
Agriculture
Shrub
2005-2010
12/13/2011
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Emission calculationEmission calculationEmission calculationEmission calculation
Emission = activity data * ∆ Cstock
= area of LU and LUC * Emission factor
= LUC matrix * emission factors
Sample matrix of calculation result (Sumatra 2000-2005)AG (plant biomass) CO2 emission from mineral soil 2000-2005 (t CO2/yr)
5 years
No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Land cover Symbol UDF DIF USF UDM DSF DIM RPL OPL TPL
UNDISTURBED FOREST UDF 0 62,151 0 0 0 0 0 0
DISTURBED FOREST DIF 0 0 0 0 0 0 752,448 1,320,064 501,156
UNDISTURBED SWAMP FORESTUSF 0 0 0 0 861 0 0 32,348
UNDISTURBED MANGROVEUDM 0 0 0 0 0 61,691 0 0
DISTURBED SWAMP FORESTDSF 0 0 0 0 0 0 452,175 1,035,576 807,990
DISTURBED MANGROVE DIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52,318
RUBBER PLANTATION RPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,285,088
OIL PALM PLANTATION OPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TIMBER PLANTATION TPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2,676
MIXED TREE CROPS MTC 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4,867 -1,326,188 -481
SCHRUB SCH 0 0 0 0 0 0 -559 -87,537 -6,837
SWAMP SCHRUBS SSH 0 0 0 0 0 0 -71,966 -45,198 -1,520
DRY CULTIVATION LANDDCL 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4,271 -336,609
SETTLEMENTS SET 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1,414
GRASS GRS 0 0 0 0 0 0 -52,161 -60,958
SWAMP GRASS SGR 0 0 0 0 0 0 -892 0
RICE FIELD RCF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -345,482
COASTAL FISH POND CFP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13,319
BARELAND BRL 0 0 0 0 0 0 -394,985 -400,313 -1,041,971
MINING MIN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -37,168
WATER BODIES WAB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUD NCL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 62,151 0 0 861 61,691 674,922 2,068,532 258,337
12/13/2011
10
Emission from OP Plantation in Emission from OP Plantation in Emission from OP Plantation in Emission from OP Plantation in
three major islands of Indonesiathree major islands of Indonesiathree major islands of Indonesiathree major islands of Indonesia
Increase in new
plantings
•Low Biomass
•Peat
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
90-00 00-05 05-10
Em
issi
on
(M
t C
O2
/yr)
Min BG
Min AG
Peat BG
Peat AG
29%71%
37%
Increase in new
plantation
• Peat
• Low
biomass
New Plantation
Old Plantation16%
13%
20%
51%
9%
28%
LULULULU----LUC Emission in LUC Emission in LUC Emission in LUC Emission in
Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sumatra, Kalimantan and
Papua OP Papua OP Papua OP Papua OP vsvsvsvs all LUCs all LUCs all LUCs all LUCs
LUC to OP
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
00-05 05-10 00-05 05-09
Em
issi
on
(M
t C
O2
-e)/
yr)
Min BG
Min AG
Peat BG
Peat AG
20
% o
f a
ll L
Us
Sumatra
19
% o
f a
ll L
Us
(50)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
00-05 05-10 00-05 05-09
Em
issi
on
(M
t C
O2
-e/y
r)
Kalimantan
4%
of
all
LU
s
22
% o
f a
ll L
Us
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
00-05 05-10 00-05 05-09
Em
issi
on
(M
t C
O2
-e/y
r)
Papua
1%
of
all
LU
s
2%
of
all
LU
s
All LUCs LUC to OP All LUCs
12/13/2011
11
Emission from OP and all LUCs, IndonesiaEmission from OP and all LUCs, IndonesiaEmission from OP and all LUCs, IndonesiaEmission from OP and all LUCs, Indonesia
n.a
. (100)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
00-05 05-10 00-05 05-09
Em
issi
on
(M
t C
O2
-e/y
r)
Min BG
Min AG
Peat BG
Peat AG
Indonesia
9%
of
all
LUs
19
% o
f a
ll L
Us
LUC to OP All LUCs
Land cover summary in the three Land cover summary in the three Land cover summary in the three Land cover summary in the three
major islands ofmajor islands ofmajor islands ofmajor islands of Indonesia, in 2010Indonesia, in 2010Indonesia, in 2010Indonesia, in 2010
7.6 3.7 3.9 4.2
0.1
40.8
27.1 28.9
18.7
0.5 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Undist
forest
Dist forest Agric Shrub Grassland
Mineral soil
Peatland
Are
a (
milli
on
ha
)
12/13/2011
12
ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions� Most land converted to OP were relatively low C stock shrub and other
agricultural lands.
� Forest areas converted are mostly disturbed forest.
� Plantations on peat represent ~20% (Indonesia) and 13% (Malaysia)
� LUC to OP in Indonesia :
� 2000-2005: 7% of total deforestation
� 2005-2010: 27% of total deforestation
� Other deforestation due to agriculture and intensive logging (+fire).
� Emissions from LUC to OP in Indonesia (excludes fire)
� 2000-2005: 0.05 Gt CO2-e /yr (9% of 0.61 Gt total LUC emission)
� 2005-2010: 0.14 Gt CO2-e /yr (19% of 0.76 Gt total LUC emission
� All sectors emissions in 2005 ~1.79 Gt (MoE, 2010).
� Peat Emission as % of the total OP emissions (inlc. Old plnttion):
� 1990-2000: 29%
� 2000-2005: 71%
� 2005-2010: 37%
Recommendations
� Future development should prioritize low C stock lands
� The use of peatland should be a last resort
� In ‘peat districts’ and ‘peat provinces’ implementation
of Best Management Practices is imperative
� Utilization of drainage-affected degraded peatland
should be a priority
� Management of water tables in land banks and set
asides must contemplate near-natural water levels.
� Land use planning in Papua is urgent priority
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