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Reducing green house gas emissions from land use changes for

oil palm development

Roundtable 9, RSPO, 22-24 November, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia

Fahmuddin Agus1, Petrus Gunarso2, Bambang H. Saharjo3, Abdul

Rashid4, K.T. Joseph5, Khali Hamzah4, Nancy Harris6,

and Meine van Noordwijk7

1Indonesian Soil Research Institute, Bogor, Indonesia; 2Tropenbos International Indonesia Programme,

Bogor, Indonesia; 3Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia; 4University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur,

Malaysia; 5Forest Research Institute Malaysia, Kepong, Malaysia ; 6Winrock International, Little Rock, USA, 7World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya

KohKohKohKoh and and and and WilcoveWilcoveWilcoveWilcove 2008200820082008

Conservation Conservation Conservation Conservation Letters XX, 1Letters XX, 1Letters XX, 1Letters XX, 1----5555....

“…….during the period 1990–2005,

55%–59% of oil palm expansion in Malaysia, and at least

56% of that in Indonesia

occurred at the expense of forests.”

Widely held view that is unsubstantiated by scientific studies.

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Objectives

� Analyze land use changes in OP producing countries (Indonesia, Malaysia and PNG)

� Estimate of the rate of emissions

� Document sources and dimensions of GHG emissions (Peat & LUC) and CO2 removals (Plantations)

� Evaluate uncertainty in emission estimates

� Model emission reduction scenarios

LU/LC spatial

analysis

Historical

LUC matrix

Govt. Policy

Market pulls

Projected LUC

C fluxes

- Soil

- Burning

C stocks -Plant Biomass

-Necromass

-Soil

Historical and predicted

emission under BAU

Mitigation

scenarios

Emission under

different scenarios

Legal and

institutional

systems

EF, R

F

Coverage of the study

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0~250 t C/ha

Emission Factors

60

cm

(2) Soil C oxidation

30-50 t C/ha

(1) Change in time average C stock

300-800 t C/m/ha in peat soilCompare to 15-200 t C/ha in surface layer of mineral soil

CH4 & N2O?

(3) Peat (soil) burning

1. Above ground C stock 1. Above ground C stock 1. Above ground C stock 1. Above ground C stock

0

50

100

150

200

250

Hardja et al. (2011)

Various sources

Bio

ma

ss C

(t/

ha

)

Forest

PlantationField crops,

grass

Source of significant uncertainty in GHG emission estimates

from LUCEmission = ∆C * 44/12 (to convert C to CO2)

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2.2.2.2.a. a. a. a. Emission from peat soil [oxidation]Emission from peat soil [oxidation]Emission from peat soil [oxidation]Emission from peat soil [oxidation]Hooijer (2010)

Emission = 0.91 * drainage depth (cm) [t CO2/ha/yr]

Modified to discount for root respiration, based on (Handayani, 2010)

Emission = 0.7 * 0.91 * drainage depth (cm) [t CO2/ha/yr]

= 0.7 * 0.91 * 60 cm drainage depth (BMP)

= 38 t CO2/ha/yr

Range in literatures 23 to 90 t CO2/ha/yr � another source of uncertainty

2.b. 2.b. 2.b. 2.b. Emission from mineral soilEmission from mineral soilEmission from mineral soilEmission from mineral soil

Initial LU Successive LU Remarks

Logged forest

Oil palm 32% and 15% soil C increase in 0-45 cm (Mathews et al., 2010)

Forest

Forest

Degraded land

Long term cultivation

Degraded’ land

Plantation

30% soil C decrease (Murty et al. 2002) from 120±60 t/ha (IPCC, 2006)

50% decrease

30% increase (Germer and Sauerborn, 2008)

Emission = ∆C * 44/12 for one agronomic cycle of~25 yr

OP Development in SumatraOP Development in SumatraOP Development in SumatraOP Development in Sumatra

1.0

2.2

3.03.3

0.3

0.7

1.0

1.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1990 2000 2005 2010

Are

a (

Mh

a)

Peatland

Minaral soil

2000 20102005

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Land use change matrix, Sumatra, Mineral soil 2000-2005

No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Land use types Symbol UDF DIF USF UDM DSF DIM RPL OPL TPL

UNDISTURBED FORESTUDF 5,749,375 3,139

DISTURBED FORESTDIF 5,753,788 6,535 11,043 4,129

UNDISTURBED SWAMP FORESTUSF 48,160 29 283

UNDISTURBED MANGROVEUDM 198,110 1,682

DISTURBED SWAMP FORESTDSF 545,611 5,657 12,280 9,377

DISTURBED MANGROVEDIM 304,122 892

RUBBER PLANTATIONRPL 1,677,071 519,338

OIL PALM PLANTATIONOPL 2,188,807

TIMBER PLANTATIONTPL 1,460 823,063

MIXED TREE CROPSMTC 415 180,844

SCHRUB SCH 48 11,937 1,243

SWAMP SCHRUB SSH 6,133 6,163 276

DRY CULTIVATION LANDDCL 162 15,300

SETTLEMENTS SET 55

GRASS GRS 1,702 2,322

SWAMP GRASS SGR 28

RICE FIELD RCF 12,398

COASTAL FISH PONDCFP 454

BARELAND BRL 11,709 13,647 37,890

MINING MIN 1,267

WATER BODIES WAB

CLOUD NCL

Total 2005 (ha) 5,749,375 5,756,927 48,160 198,110 545,640 305,804 1,709,460 2,978,490 876,066

OP Development in Indonesia on peat OP Development in Indonesia on peat OP Development in Indonesia on peat OP Development in Indonesia on peat

and mineral soilsand mineral soilsand mineral soilsand mineral soils

1.22

2.893.99

4.74

0.09

0.74

1.10

2.90

0.03

0.05

0.07

0.08

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

1990 2000 2005 2010

Are

a (m

illio

n h

a)

Papua

Kalimantan

Sumatra

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Development of OP plantation in Indonesia’s Development of OP plantation in Indonesia’s Development of OP plantation in Indonesia’s Development of OP plantation in Indonesia’s

three major islands on peat and mineral soilsthree major islands on peat and mineral soilsthree major islands on peat and mineral soilsthree major islands on peat and mineral soils

OP on peatland 20%, 20%, 20%, 22%, respectively

Better to use

the term

mineral soils

1.07

2.954.10

6.02

0.27

0.72

1.05

1.70

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

1990 2000 2005 2010

Are

a (

Mil

lio

n h

a)

Peatland

Mineral soil

Land use change to OP from 1990Land use change to OP from 1990Land use change to OP from 1990Land use change to OP from 1990----2010201020102010

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

UN

DIS

T F

OR

ES

T

DIS

T F

OR

ES

T

UN

DIS

T S

WA

MP

FO

R

UN

DIS

T M

AN

GR

OV

E

DIS

T S

WA

MP

FO

RE

ST

DIS

T M

AN

GR

OV

E

OIL

PA

LM

19

90

RU

BB

ER

TIM

BE

R P

LA

NT

AT

ION

TIM

BE

R P

LA

NT

AT

ION

SH

RU

B

SW

AM

P S

HR

UB

AN

NU

AL

UP

LA

ND

GR

AS

S

SW

AM

P G

RA

SS

RIC

E F

IEL

D

BA

RE

LA

ND

OT

HE

RS

Are

a (

Mil

lio

nh

a)

Non-peatland

Peatland

Non-forest, 55%

17

%

Forest, 28%

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DDDDeforestationeforestationeforestationeforestation of disturbed and undisturbed of disturbed and undisturbed of disturbed and undisturbed of disturbed and undisturbed

forests (ha/yr, %), inforests (ha/yr, %), inforests (ha/yr, %), inforests (ha/yr, %), in the 3 islands of the 3 islands of the 3 islands of the 3 islands of Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia

2000-2005 2005-2010

34,257

, 7%

25,850 , 6%

149,939 ,

33%

243,631 ,

54%

OP

Timber

Shrub

Others

237,530 ,

27%

53,849 , 6%

286,958 ,

32%

311,963 ,

35%

OP

Timber

Shrub

Others

More than 30% deforestation ended up in shrub which is prone to fire

Development of OP Plantation in Malaysia Development of OP Plantation in Malaysia Development of OP Plantation in Malaysia Development of OP Plantation in Malaysia

Year OP on Peatland (ha)

Total OP plantation (ha)

% OP on Peatland

Peninsular1990 111,954 1,418,263 0.8

2006 212,924 2,545,893 8.3

2009 226,532 2,683,217 8,4

Sarawak2000 40,010 473,114 3.1

2005 193,031 543,514 15,0

2009 434,057 1,164,386 33.7

Sabah2000 11,139 1,115,020 9,5

2005 18,675 1,151756 15,9

2009 21,043 1,452,199 18,0

Malaysia

2009 681,632 5,299,802 13%

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Oil Palm

Oil Palm0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1990 2000 2005 2010

Development of OP Plantation in PNG

Initial land uses that

changed to OP in

three periods, PNG

4,302 ,

12%

11,854 ,

35%

1,995 , 6%

16,123 ,

47%

Primary forest

Secondary forest

Agriculture

Shrub

1990-2000

316 , 2%

12,066 ,

64%

1,683 , 9%

4,629 ,

25% Primary forest

Secondary forest

Agriculture

Shrub

2000-2005316 , 1%

25,214 ,

59%

1,968 , 5%

15,108 ,

35%

Primary forest

Secondary forest

Agriculture

Shrub

2005-2010

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Emission calculationEmission calculationEmission calculationEmission calculation

Emission = activity data * ∆ Cstock

= area of LU and LUC * Emission factor

= LUC matrix * emission factors

Sample matrix of calculation result (Sumatra 2000-2005)AG (plant biomass) CO2 emission from mineral soil 2000-2005 (t CO2/yr)

5 years

No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Land cover Symbol UDF DIF USF UDM DSF DIM RPL OPL TPL

UNDISTURBED FOREST UDF 0 62,151 0 0 0 0 0 0

DISTURBED FOREST DIF 0 0 0 0 0 0 752,448 1,320,064 501,156

UNDISTURBED SWAMP FORESTUSF 0 0 0 0 861 0 0 32,348

UNDISTURBED MANGROVEUDM 0 0 0 0 0 61,691 0 0

DISTURBED SWAMP FORESTDSF 0 0 0 0 0 0 452,175 1,035,576 807,990

DISTURBED MANGROVE DIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52,318

RUBBER PLANTATION RPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,285,088

OIL PALM PLANTATION OPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TIMBER PLANTATION TPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2,676

MIXED TREE CROPS MTC 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4,867 -1,326,188 -481

SCHRUB SCH 0 0 0 0 0 0 -559 -87,537 -6,837

SWAMP SCHRUBS SSH 0 0 0 0 0 0 -71,966 -45,198 -1,520

DRY CULTIVATION LANDDCL 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4,271 -336,609

SETTLEMENTS SET 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1,414

GRASS GRS 0 0 0 0 0 0 -52,161 -60,958

SWAMP GRASS SGR 0 0 0 0 0 0 -892 0

RICE FIELD RCF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -345,482

COASTAL FISH POND CFP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13,319

BARELAND BRL 0 0 0 0 0 0 -394,985 -400,313 -1,041,971

MINING MIN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -37,168

WATER BODIES WAB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CLOUD NCL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 62,151 0 0 861 61,691 674,922 2,068,532 258,337

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Emission from OP Plantation in Emission from OP Plantation in Emission from OP Plantation in Emission from OP Plantation in

three major islands of Indonesiathree major islands of Indonesiathree major islands of Indonesiathree major islands of Indonesia

Increase in new

plantings

•Low Biomass

•Peat

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

90-00 00-05 05-10

Em

issi

on

(M

t C

O2

/yr)

Min BG

Min AG

Peat BG

Peat AG

29%71%

37%

Increase in new

plantation

• Peat

• Low

biomass

New Plantation

Old Plantation16%

13%

20%

51%

9%

28%

LULULULU----LUC Emission in LUC Emission in LUC Emission in LUC Emission in

Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sumatra, Kalimantan and

Papua OP Papua OP Papua OP Papua OP vsvsvsvs all LUCs all LUCs all LUCs all LUCs

LUC to OP

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

00-05 05-10 00-05 05-09

Em

issi

on

(M

t C

O2

-e)/

yr)

Min BG

Min AG

Peat BG

Peat AG

20

% o

f a

ll L

Us

Sumatra

19

% o

f a

ll L

Us

(50)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

00-05 05-10 00-05 05-09

Em

issi

on

(M

t C

O2

-e/y

r)

Kalimantan

4%

of

all

LU

s

22

% o

f a

ll L

Us

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

00-05 05-10 00-05 05-09

Em

issi

on

(M

t C

O2

-e/y

r)

Papua

1%

of

all

LU

s

2%

of

all

LU

s

All LUCs LUC to OP All LUCs

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Emission from OP and all LUCs, IndonesiaEmission from OP and all LUCs, IndonesiaEmission from OP and all LUCs, IndonesiaEmission from OP and all LUCs, Indonesia

n.a

. (100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

00-05 05-10 00-05 05-09

Em

issi

on

(M

t C

O2

-e/y

r)

Min BG

Min AG

Peat BG

Peat AG

Indonesia

9%

of

all

LUs

19

% o

f a

ll L

Us

LUC to OP All LUCs

Land cover summary in the three Land cover summary in the three Land cover summary in the three Land cover summary in the three

major islands ofmajor islands ofmajor islands ofmajor islands of Indonesia, in 2010Indonesia, in 2010Indonesia, in 2010Indonesia, in 2010

7.6 3.7 3.9 4.2

0.1

40.8

27.1 28.9

18.7

0.5 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Undist

forest

Dist forest Agric Shrub Grassland

Mineral soil

Peatland

Are

a (

milli

on

ha

)

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ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions� Most land converted to OP were relatively low C stock shrub and other

agricultural lands.

� Forest areas converted are mostly disturbed forest.

� Plantations on peat represent ~20% (Indonesia) and 13% (Malaysia)

� LUC to OP in Indonesia :

� 2000-2005: 7% of total deforestation

� 2005-2010: 27% of total deforestation

� Other deforestation due to agriculture and intensive logging (+fire).

� Emissions from LUC to OP in Indonesia (excludes fire)

� 2000-2005: 0.05 Gt CO2-e /yr (9% of 0.61 Gt total LUC emission)

� 2005-2010: 0.14 Gt CO2-e /yr (19% of 0.76 Gt total LUC emission

� All sectors emissions in 2005 ~1.79 Gt (MoE, 2010).

� Peat Emission as % of the total OP emissions (inlc. Old plnttion):

� 1990-2000: 29%

� 2000-2005: 71%

� 2005-2010: 37%

Recommendations

� Future development should prioritize low C stock lands

� The use of peatland should be a last resort

� In ‘peat districts’ and ‘peat provinces’ implementation

of Best Management Practices is imperative

� Utilization of drainage-affected degraded peatland

should be a priority

� Management of water tables in land banks and set

asides must contemplate near-natural water levels.

� Land use planning in Papua is urgent priority