RSPO

Scientific Panels

(Works Stream 3)

Making Knowledge Work for Forests and People

PROGRESS ON

IndonesiaLAND USE CHANGE ANALYSIS

RT 9, Kota Kinabalu – Sabah, Malaysia 22 November 2011

OUTLINE

• Introduction

• Method

• Land Cover Classes used in this analysis

• Indonesia Land Cover Change (2005-2010)• Indonesia Land Cover Change (2005-2010)

• Land Cover Change in Three Main Islands (Sumatra,

Kalimantan, and Papua)

• Conclusion

• Recommendation

INTRODUCTION

• Indonesia, together with Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea

produce almost 97% of CPO of the world with total area of

more than 13.2 millions of palm oil plantation in 2010.

However, the three countries were also known as countries

with the highest rate of forest cover loss (Konuma, 2011).

• We analyze land use change for the past two decades in the • We analyze land use change for the past two decades in the

three countries using Landsat TM data that were downloaded

from the Internet. We visually digitized or on screen digitation

of polygons of 22 different land cover types, equally for the

three countries.

• This presentation is the progress for Indonesia.

Methodology

High Resolution

Image from

Google Earth

Landsat 7 ETM image

+ / Landsat 5 TM

Image ( multi year)

INTERPRETATION V/M

- Delineation

-Labeling

Interpretation Key

Land Cover 2005 Land Cover 2010

Land Cover Change

2000-2005

Land Cover Change

2005 - 2010

Land Cover 2000Land Cover 1990

Land Cover Change

1990- 2000

The 22 Land Cover Classification

No. LAND COVER CLASSES CODE

1 UNDISTURBED FOREST UDF

2 DISTURBED FOREST DIF

3 UNDISTURBED SWAMP FOREST USF

4 UNDISTURBED MANGROVE UDM

5 DISTURBED SWAMP FOREST DSF

6 DISTURBED MANGROVE DIM

7 CROP PLANTATION (Rubber, Cocoa, Coconut) CPL

8 OIL PALM PLANTATION OPL

9 TIMBER PLANTATION TPL9 TIMBER PLANTATION TPL

10 MIXED TREE CROPS MTC

11 SCRUB SCR

12 SWAMP SCRUBS SSC

13 DRY CULTIVATION LAND DCL

14 SETTLEMENTS SET

15 GRASS GRS

16 SWAMP GRASS SGR

17 RICE FIELD RCF

18 COASTAL FISH POND CFP

19 BARELAND BRL

20 MINING MIN

21 WATER BODIES WAB

22 UNCLASSIFIED NCL

MATRIX OF LAND COVER CHANGE

INDONESIA 2005-2010

LAND

COVER

LAND COVER INDONESIA 2005 (PAPUA, KALIMANTAN, SUMATRA)

CODE BRL CFP CPL DCL DIF DIM DSF GRS MIN MTC NCL OPL RCF RPL SCH SET SGR SSH TPL UDF UDM USF WAB Grand Total

IND

ON

ES

IA 2

00

5 (

PA

PU

A,

KA

LIM

AN

TA

N,

SU

MA

TR

A)

BRL 2.264,1 0,0 46,5 27,9 0,2 0,1 0,6 0,2 15,2 91,7 6,5 66,8 4,2 52,0 32,8 12,1 2.621,0

CFP 0,2 440,9 0,1 0,5 0,1 441,7

CPL 10,6 1.889,2 4,5 0,0 21,4 247,6 1,2 3,4 1,6 0,1 2.179,5

DCL 13,3 0,1 45,8 6.798,6 4,6 1,5 129,9 44,2 2,1 6,9 7,8 5,0 0,0 7.059,8

DIF 38,0 7,9 141,6 22.519,8 1,1 14,3 210,4 644,1 0,2 0,7 733,4 7,8 14,4 2,0 24.335,6

DIM 0,4 4,0 0,0 0,2 717,7 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,0 1,1 1,7 0,1 725,5

DSF 33,7 32,1 39,7 46,5 4.505,6 0,6 57,2 287,6 1,1 16,8 1,2 0,8 421,4 185,6 0,9 5.630,7

GRS 314,4 0,1 7,1 1,1 322,6

MIN 0,1 246,7 0,0 0,2 247,0

LAN

D C

OV

ER

IN

DO

NE

SIA

20

05

(P

AP

UA

, K

ALI

MA

NT

AN

, S

UM

AT

RA

)

MIN 0,1 246,7 0,0 0,2 247,0

MTC 15,1 0,1 21,5 986,7 0,6 0,6 8.602,7 76,9 0,3 0,6 85,3 1,3 0,1 6,9 0,1 9.798,6

NCL 1,8 2,4 104,5 1,3 0,3 3,2 32,3 246,3 1,0 12,7 0,2 0,8 2,4 0,1 0,3 409,5

OPL 5.155,2 5.155,2

RCF 0,8 0,1 0,3 12,2 8,8 2.367,9 6,7 0,0 2,6 2.399,5

RPL 0,9 25,9 670,9 697,7

SCH 13,1 0,9 27,1 722,0 6,6 0,1 2,8 29,7 85,4 674,4 3,8 5,5 14.209,8 2,4 33,9 0,5 15.817,9

SET 0,6 0,5 6,8 0,4 1.159,0 1.167,3

SGR 0,2 0,2 304,7 44,6 349,7

SSH 15,3 16,4 10,5 66,9 1,0 8,6 1,3 3,6 319,0 30,6 19,0 0,1 29,4 6.467,2 14,9 18,2 7.022,0

TPL 46,0 0,1 1,8 4,5 0,1 5,9 24,4 33,0 0,1 1.629,1 1.744,9

UDF 5,8 21,6 1.970,8 5,1 1,9 3,2 8,7 396,6 0,7 7,7 38.056,4 40.478,5

UDM 0,1 0,0 0,2 76,8 0,0 0,1 0,1 4,9 1.584,7 0,3 1.667,1

USF 0,8 0,9 1,9 622,1 1,8 0,3 9,5 4,4 1,0 0,7 5,1 116,3 6,0 9.018,8 6,5 9.796,2

WAB 7,0 0,1 0,5 1,7 0,0 0,0 5,4 0,5 11,4 145,9 2.366,9 2.539,5

Grand

Total 2.466,8 495,7 2.091,7 8.938,8 24.498,7 795,8 5.140,6 327,8 303,0 9.039,8 246,3 7.723,9 2.457,4 690,8 15.597,9 1.189,8 340,0 7.254,4 1.940,6 38.056,4 1.584,7 9.019,1 2.407,5 142.607,3

800

1000

1200

x 1

00

0 H

aLand Cover Change To Oil Palm in Indonesia 1990 -2010

UNDISTURBED FOREST

DISTURB FOREST

TIMBER PLANTATION

0

200

400

600

1990 2000 2005 2010

x 1

00

0 H

a TIMBER PLANTATION

AGRICULTURE

HOME GARDEN

MINING

NOT CLASIFIED

WASTE LAND

INDONESIA SPATIAL PLAN 2008

Sumatra Oil Palm Development 1990 -2010

958,000 ha

Total Oil Palm :

958,000 ha

2,893,000 ha

3,990,000 ha

4,743,000 ha

2188.807

2978.490

3347.576

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

4500.0

5000.0

In 1

00

0 H

a

Oil Palm Development in Sumatra 0

50

100

150

200

250

x 1

00

0 H

a

Land Cover in 2005 Change to Oil

palm 2010 on Mineral Soil

264.310

704.4741011.902

1395.733958.004

2188.807

.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

1990 2000 2005 2010

In 1

00

0 H

a

Mineral

Peatland

020406080

100120140160180

x 1

00

0 H

a

Land Cover in 2005 Change to Oil

palm 2010 on PEATLAND

85,000 ha

737,000 ha

Total Oil Palm :

Kalimantan Oil Palm Development 1990 -2010

1,096,000 ha

2,897,000 ha

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

Oil Palm Development in Kalimantan

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

x 1

00

0 H

a

Land Cover in 2005 change to Oil palm

2010 on Mineral Soil in Kalimantan

.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

1 2 3 4

in 1

00

0 H

a

Mineral Soil

Peatland

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Agriculture Disturbed

Forest

Undisturbed

Forest

Waste Land

Ax

is T

itle

Land Cover in 2005 change to Oil Palm

2010 on Peatland in Kalimantan

Papua 1990 - 2000

28,740 ha

Total Oil Palm :

69,910 ha

85,349 ha

47,560 ha

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

x1

00

0 H

a

Oil Palm Development in Papua

On Mineral Soil

0

2

4

6

8

10

Agriculture Disturbed Forest Undisturbed

Forest

Waste Land

x 1

00

0 H

a

Land Cover 2005 change to Oil

Palm 2010 on Mineral Soil In

Papua

.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

1990 2000 2005 2010

x1

00

0 H

a

On Mineral Soil

On Peatland

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Disturbed Forest Undisturbed Forest Waste land

He

cta

re

Land Cover in 2005 change to Oil

Palm 2010 on Peatland In Papua

Conclusion - 1

• Data variability among provinces are so diverse, therefore generalization of a country wide data often misleading. This in particular related to source of deforestation and land cover change.

• In general in Indonesia – in the island of Kalimantan and Papua the conversion of Kalimantan and Papua the conversion of undisturbed forest exist during 2005-2010. Although currently the palm oil area in Papua relatively small, the potential of expansion is very high. If biodiversity is our utmost concern –action related to REDD+ compensation should be addressed for these two islands in Indonesia.

Conclusion - 2

• Trend in using peatland (Sumatra and Kalimantan)– Large private company can be avoided with permit regime

– Small scale – more difficult to deal with

• Trend in using undisturbed forest (Kalimantan partly and Papua mainly)– Should be avoided, if we concern about biodiversity

– Should be avoided, if we concern about run-off– Should be avoided, if we concern about run-off

– Should be avoided, if we concern about GHG/CO2 sequestration

• Trend in using higher slope exist in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua– Issue of run-off; flood and landslide

– Better for other crop plantations (rubber, or industrial forest plantation) with more controllable run-off

Recommendation

• The data suggest that fire, soil run-off, and biodiversity loss is more dominant problem than the issue of carbon loss from palm oil expansion.

• Sustainable approach promoted by RSPO, in particular related to HCV area on palm oil particular related to HCV area on palm oil may reduce and potentially address the negative impacts of those three land cover change trends. Therefore it need to be further promoted.

• Further study is needed – for subsequent years, to provide time series of the data for policy and planning.