iran and russia relations after cold war
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anRUSSIARelations after Cold WAr
Abbas Malekimaleki@caspianstudies.com
IPIS
Feb. 26, 2008
mailto:maleki@caspianstudies.commailto:maleki@caspianstudies.com -
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Introduction
Iran and Russia: Their relations and its impactson 4 levels
-International-Regional
-Bilateral
-Provincial Conclusions
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Russia: The Biggest Countryin the World
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Russia at a glance
Population: 143.2 million (UN, 2003) Capital: Moscow
Major language: Russian Major religions: Christianity, Islam Life expectancy: 61 years (men), 73 years (women) (UN) Monetary unit: 1 ruble = 100 kopecks Main exports: Oil and oil products, natural gas, wood and
wood products, metals, chemicals, weapons and militaryequipment GNI per capita: US $2,130 (World Bank, 2002)
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Iran at a glance
Population: 68.9 million (UN, 2003) Capital: Tehran Area: 1.65m sq km (636,313 sq miles) Major language: Persian Major religion: Islam Life expectancy: 69 years (men), 72 years (women)
(UN) Monetary unit: 10 Iranian Rials = 1 Toman Main exports: Petroleum, carpets, agricultural products GNI per capita: US $1,720 (World Bank, 2002)
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International
Level World New Order NATO expansion to the East
UN Security Council Nuclear Issue Asian Identity
North-South Corridor
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Regional Level
Symmetric Interests in Central Asia-Tajik Civil War
Asymmetric interests in Caucasia-Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
-Chechnya
Bi-polar Roles in Afghanistan
-Northern Alliance Caspian Sea Legal Regime ECO
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Bilateral Level
Economic RelationsNon-military ties are not more than $800 millionsin 2004
Educational and Scientific ties
Launching SatelliteAssembling airplanes, textiles, heavy industries
Pharmaceutical, Biotechnology, Polymers
Nuclear Technology Air Space Technology Energy
-Electricity
-Oil and Gas
Defense Cooperation
Missile Defense Systems
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Provincial Level
Connections between Iranianprovinces and Russian
Federations Republics: -Gilan and Astrakhan
-East Azerbaijan and Dagestan
-Kerman and Moscow
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Soviets Foreign
Policy Soviets Foreign Policy was the conclusion of
interaction between national interests andCommunism ideology
Marx: Proletariat doesnt have the country. From 1947, Soviet competition with US:
-Cold War-Peaceful Coexistence-Detent-Deterrence
Gorbachev and Regan meeting in Iceland, 1986:-2 superpowers nuclear weapons reduction-Soviet economic deterioration
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Russias Foreign
Policy (1) 1992-1996: Full coordination with
US, idealism and democracy
1996-2000: Strategic alliance withChina and India, focus to Asia,Middle East
2000-Sep. 20001: Eurasianism Sep. 2001-now: acceptance of
unipolar system
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Russias ForeignPolicy (2)
Schools ofThoughts Westerners (Atlanticism): Andrea Kozyrov (Aug. 1991-Dec. 1992) Jion to Democratic Club,
Cooperation with EU, NATO, IMF, WB, OECD, G7 Reduction of relations with Near Abroad
TWO GROUPS:
Kozyrovs Followers: Assertive to the West
Liberal Politicians: Civilized dialogue both with
the West and CIS
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Russias ForeignPolicy (3)
Schools ofThoughts Eurasianists
Response to the Westerners.
Focus on Russians GeopoliticsTWO GROUPS:
-The Democratic Version
(Reformists)-The Slavophil Version
Derzhavniki (National Power)
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Countries with Oil Reserves >1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse
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Oil Proved Reserves
41100.00%1147.71146.3Total World
92.911.40%130.7130.7Iran
22.26.00%69.167
Russian
Federation
Share of total
Thousands
million barrels
Thousands
million barrels R/P ratio
At end 2003At end 2002
Proved reserves
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US behavior impacts on
Iran and Russia United States is the worlds largest
energy producer, consumer, and
importer as respectively 7.45,20.07, 12.85 mbd US various sanctions on Iran like
ILSA May 2002 Summit between Bush
and Putin: Signing an agreementon Energy Partnership.
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RussiasPolicies after
9/11-Each country has its specific
terrorists-Russian long-term
Cooperation with US inenergy market
-New Terminals in Murmansk,Primorsk,
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Iran: an OPEC MemberRussia: a non-OPEC Iran is obliged to OPEC share and therefore is avoiding
flooding the market with its oil. Russia is not obligated to abide by any quota system. Russia as a non-OPEC producer, has produces and export
more of its oil since the late 1990s and most of the increasein non-OPEC production has come from Russia
This surge in Russias share in global oil markets is at theexpense of OPEC.
But OPEC and Russia have sought Moscows cooperation.-To restrain production to a certain level to prevent a
collapse of oil prices-The investment in Siberia was very high-Russian oil companies wanted to recover market shares
lost since the demise of the Soviet Union.
Russia cut only 150,000 bd in the first quarter of 2002.
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between Iran andRussias oil and gas
sectors: Major oil and gas industries in Russia has been largelyprivatized.
5 companies have 70% of countrys oil production:
Yokus, LUKoil, Surgutneftegaz, TNK and Sibneft. All of Iranian oil and gas companies are SOEs. Mergers like TNK-BP means more barriers for
Russian companies for investing in Iran. Production costs are much higher in Russia than in
Iran. Iran makes money at $10 per barrel, butproduction becomes unprofitable for Russiancompanies at this low price.
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Caspian importance
for US Caspian is not important for US as it was before 11/9
-War against terrorism
-The change in US strategy in the regionfrom political-economic to security-military
approach
-The importance of countries with strong
ability to fight against terrorism instead ofrich energy countries.
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Agreements among 5
Littoral States The Convention on Environment was
signed in November 2003 in Tehran. Consensus over transportation as 1940
agreement says The different agreement on species of
the Caspian, 50% of sturgeon trade is forIran
The next summit will be in Iran in 2006?? 14 round of negotiations among littoral
states Several bilateral, trilateral discussions.
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PIPELINEROUTES: AN
IMPRESSIONBottlenecks andPipelines 11 oil pipeline
projects/ 6operational 6 natural gaspipelineprojects/2operational. Of particularnotice:
CPC BTC TCP
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Relations with China
Chinas Asymmetric Deterrence:China with
modernized military is ready to fight along its border withoutpermit the third party to intervene.
Instability inside China: Socio-economic crisis inNorthern part of China causes vast emigration to Russia
Islamic Fundamentalism: Xinjiang independenceshould be a bed for Islamic fundamentalism and a copy forCentral Asia.
Future of Relations: Russians dont know Chinesetendency after economic growth and solving Taiwan problem:
-Shift to the South, no threats on Russian borders
-Shift to the North, tension increases in China-CIS borders.
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Differences
Caspian Sea Legal Affairs Military presence in Caspian Sea
Interactions with US, Israel Irans Nuclear file Energy Security concerning Supply
to Europe
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Conclusions (I)1. Russia wants to have good relations with Islamic countries.
Iran is frontier of Islamic countries.
2. Iran is eager to show to the US, Policies such regimechange is not working.
3. The large hydrocarbon reserves can be used as a basis for
either cooperation or rivalry between Russia and Iran.
4. Iran-Russia energy policies should not be seen in zero-sumterms.
5. More cooperation between two countries means enhancing
global energy security.
6. Both countries are heavily dependent on oil revenues
7. Both countries are dangerously vulnerable to thefluctuations of oil prices.
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Conclusions (II)
Iran could join to Shanghai Cooperation Organization Two countries benefit from keeping prices at a certain
level (roughly between $25-30).
OPECs policy of reduced production benefits Russia bykeeping prices high and enabling Moscow to sell more ofits oil.
Irans share of the worlds proven reserves (11.4%) higherthan Russia (6%), encourages Russian companies toinvest in Iran.
Irans Transportation network is complimentary ofRussian system and can support more oil production inRussia.
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Conclusions (III)
NorthSouth Corridor should embrace new members Partnership on gas industries between the first and
second gas owners: Iran has huge underexploredand unused gas deposits. Russia has thetechnological skills and expertise to develop them.
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