iran and russia relations after cold war

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    anRUSSIARelations after Cold WAr

    Abbas [email protected]

    IPIS

    Feb. 26, 2008

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 2

    Introduction

    Iran and Russia: Their relations and its impactson 4 levels

    -International-Regional

    -Bilateral

    -Provincial Conclusions

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    Iran and the North, Abbas Maleki 3

    Russia: The Biggest Countryin the World

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 4

    Russia at a glance

    Population: 143.2 million (UN, 2003) Capital: Moscow

    Major language: Russian Major religions: Christianity, Islam Life expectancy: 61 years (men), 73 years (women) (UN) Monetary unit: 1 ruble = 100 kopecks Main exports: Oil and oil products, natural gas, wood and

    wood products, metals, chemicals, weapons and militaryequipment GNI per capita: US $2,130 (World Bank, 2002)

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 5

    Iran at a glance

    Population: 68.9 million (UN, 2003) Capital: Tehran Area: 1.65m sq km (636,313 sq miles) Major language: Persian Major religion: Islam Life expectancy: 69 years (men), 72 years (women)

    (UN) Monetary unit: 10 Iranian Rials = 1 Toman Main exports: Petroleum, carpets, agricultural products GNI per capita: US $1,720 (World Bank, 2002)

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 6

    International

    Level World New Order NATO expansion to the East

    UN Security Council Nuclear Issue Asian Identity

    North-South Corridor

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 7

    Regional Level

    Symmetric Interests in Central Asia-Tajik Civil War

    Asymmetric interests in Caucasia-Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

    -Chechnya

    Bi-polar Roles in Afghanistan

    -Northern Alliance Caspian Sea Legal Regime ECO

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 8

    Bilateral Level

    Economic RelationsNon-military ties are not more than $800 millionsin 2004

    Educational and Scientific ties

    Launching SatelliteAssembling airplanes, textiles, heavy industries

    Pharmaceutical, Biotechnology, Polymers

    Nuclear Technology Air Space Technology Energy

    -Electricity

    -Oil and Gas

    Defense Cooperation

    Missile Defense Systems

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 9

    Provincial Level

    Connections between Iranianprovinces and Russian

    Federations Republics: -Gilan and Astrakhan

    -East Azerbaijan and Dagestan

    -Kerman and Moscow

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 10

    Soviets Foreign

    Policy Soviets Foreign Policy was the conclusion of

    interaction between national interests andCommunism ideology

    Marx: Proletariat doesnt have the country. From 1947, Soviet competition with US:

    -Cold War-Peaceful Coexistence-Detent-Deterrence

    Gorbachev and Regan meeting in Iceland, 1986:-2 superpowers nuclear weapons reduction-Soviet economic deterioration

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 11

    Russias Foreign

    Policy (1) 1992-1996: Full coordination with

    US, idealism and democracy

    1996-2000: Strategic alliance withChina and India, focus to Asia,Middle East

    2000-Sep. 20001: Eurasianism Sep. 2001-now: acceptance of

    unipolar system

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 12

    Russias ForeignPolicy (2)

    Schools ofThoughts Westerners (Atlanticism): Andrea Kozyrov (Aug. 1991-Dec. 1992) Jion to Democratic Club,

    Cooperation with EU, NATO, IMF, WB, OECD, G7 Reduction of relations with Near Abroad

    TWO GROUPS:

    Kozyrovs Followers: Assertive to the West

    Liberal Politicians: Civilized dialogue both with

    the West and CIS

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    Iran and the North, Abbas Maleki 13

    Russias ForeignPolicy (3)

    Schools ofThoughts Eurasianists

    Response to the Westerners.

    Focus on Russians GeopoliticsTWO GROUPS:

    -The Democratic Version

    (Reformists)-The Slavophil Version

    Derzhavniki (National Power)

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 14

    Countries with Oil Reserves >1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 15

    Oil Proved Reserves

    41100.00%1147.71146.3Total World

    92.911.40%130.7130.7Iran

    22.26.00%69.167

    Russian

    Federation

    Share of total

    Thousands

    million barrels

    Thousands

    million barrels R/P ratio

    At end 2003At end 2002

    Proved reserves

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 16

    US behavior impacts on

    Iran and Russia United States is the worlds largest

    energy producer, consumer, and

    importer as respectively 7.45,20.07, 12.85 mbd US various sanctions on Iran like

    ILSA May 2002 Summit between Bush

    and Putin: Signing an agreementon Energy Partnership.

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 17

    RussiasPolicies after

    9/11-Each country has its specific

    terrorists-Russian long-term

    Cooperation with US inenergy market

    -New Terminals in Murmansk,Primorsk,

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 18

    Iran: an OPEC MemberRussia: a non-OPEC Iran is obliged to OPEC share and therefore is avoiding

    flooding the market with its oil. Russia is not obligated to abide by any quota system. Russia as a non-OPEC producer, has produces and export

    more of its oil since the late 1990s and most of the increasein non-OPEC production has come from Russia

    This surge in Russias share in global oil markets is at theexpense of OPEC.

    But OPEC and Russia have sought Moscows cooperation.-To restrain production to a certain level to prevent a

    collapse of oil prices-The investment in Siberia was very high-Russian oil companies wanted to recover market shares

    lost since the demise of the Soviet Union.

    Russia cut only 150,000 bd in the first quarter of 2002.

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 19

    between Iran andRussias oil and gas

    sectors: Major oil and gas industries in Russia has been largelyprivatized.

    5 companies have 70% of countrys oil production:

    Yokus, LUKoil, Surgutneftegaz, TNK and Sibneft. All of Iranian oil and gas companies are SOEs. Mergers like TNK-BP means more barriers for

    Russian companies for investing in Iran. Production costs are much higher in Russia than in

    Iran. Iran makes money at $10 per barrel, butproduction becomes unprofitable for Russiancompanies at this low price.

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    Caspian importance

    for US Caspian is not important for US as it was before 11/9

    -War against terrorism

    -The change in US strategy in the regionfrom political-economic to security-military

    approach

    -The importance of countries with strong

    ability to fight against terrorism instead ofrich energy countries.

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 21

    Agreements among 5

    Littoral States The Convention on Environment was

    signed in November 2003 in Tehran. Consensus over transportation as 1940

    agreement says The different agreement on species of

    the Caspian, 50% of sturgeon trade is forIran

    The next summit will be in Iran in 2006?? 14 round of negotiations among littoral

    states Several bilateral, trilateral discussions.

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    PIPELINEROUTES: AN

    IMPRESSIONBottlenecks andPipelines 11 oil pipeline

    projects/ 6operational 6 natural gaspipelineprojects/2operational. Of particularnotice:

    CPC BTC TCP

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    Iran and the North, Abbas Maleki 23

    Relations with China

    Chinas Asymmetric Deterrence:China with

    modernized military is ready to fight along its border withoutpermit the third party to intervene.

    Instability inside China: Socio-economic crisis inNorthern part of China causes vast emigration to Russia

    Islamic Fundamentalism: Xinjiang independenceshould be a bed for Islamic fundamentalism and a copy forCentral Asia.

    Future of Relations: Russians dont know Chinesetendency after economic growth and solving Taiwan problem:

    -Shift to the South, no threats on Russian borders

    -Shift to the North, tension increases in China-CIS borders.

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 24

    Differences

    Caspian Sea Legal Affairs Military presence in Caspian Sea

    Interactions with US, Israel Irans Nuclear file Energy Security concerning Supply

    to Europe

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 25

    Conclusions (I)1. Russia wants to have good relations with Islamic countries.

    Iran is frontier of Islamic countries.

    2. Iran is eager to show to the US, Policies such regimechange is not working.

    3. The large hydrocarbon reserves can be used as a basis for

    either cooperation or rivalry between Russia and Iran.

    4. Iran-Russia energy policies should not be seen in zero-sumterms.

    5. More cooperation between two countries means enhancing

    global energy security.

    6. Both countries are heavily dependent on oil revenues

    7. Both countries are dangerously vulnerable to thefluctuations of oil prices.

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    Conclusions (II)

    Iran could join to Shanghai Cooperation Organization Two countries benefit from keeping prices at a certain

    level (roughly between $25-30).

    OPECs policy of reduced production benefits Russia bykeeping prices high and enabling Moscow to sell more ofits oil.

    Irans share of the worlds proven reserves (11.4%) higherthan Russia (6%), encourages Russian companies toinvest in Iran.

    Irans Transportation network is complimentary ofRussian system and can support more oil production inRussia.

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    Iran & Russia, Maleki 27

    Conclusions (III)

    NorthSouth Corridor should embrace new members Partnership on gas industries between the first and

    second gas owners: Iran has huge underexploredand unused gas deposits. Russia has thetechnological skills and expertise to develop them.