growth model users group growth model run-off january 2002
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Growth Model Users Group
Growth Model Run-Off
January 2002
Growth Model Run-OffObjectives
• Compare the projections of three “typical” stands of predominately Douglas-fir using GMUG member growth models.
• Evaluate the repeatability of projections by the same model among users.
• Evaluate the consistency of projections among models.
• Each GMUG member was provided with a dbh-class based tree list for each stand with heights, crown ratios and expansion factors.
• Site Index (King’s Douglas-fir) and total age were provided.
• Each member to project stands in 10-year increments to age 60.
Growth Model Run-OffMethods
• 16 members responded.• 7 models used.
– CRYPTOS– DFSIM– FPS– FVS– ORGANON– SPS– TADAM (as TASS-derived model)
• 11 model versions.
Growth Model Run-OffResults
– FPS• Oregon region - 5
• Washington region - 1
– FVS• Pacific NW Coast - 2
• West Cascades - 1
– TADAM - 1– CRYPTOS - 1
Growth Model Run-OffModel Versions
– ORGANON• SMC - 6
• Assisi - 1
– SPS• 4.1h - 1
• Pacific NW Region (2.HT) - 1
– DFSIM - 1
• Problems/comments:– No location information given.
– Site index was not consistent with some stands’ exhibited height.
– Stand treatment history had to be assumed.
– Maximum SDI not specified.
– Some models (DFSIM, TADAM, CRYPTOS) do not know about western hemlock.
– Clumpiness and plot-level information not provided.
Growth Model Run-OffResults
Stand 1
• 30 Years Old (from planting)• Site Index 115• TPA: 230• BA: 106 ft2
• QMD: 9.2 inches• 95% Douglas-fir, 5% western hemlock
Stand 1Stand 1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22
DBH
Tre
es p
er A
cre
western hemlock
Douglas-fir
Stand 1Stand 1
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
DBH
To
tal H
eig
ht
Douglas-fir
western hemlock
Stand 1Stand 1
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 5 10 15 20 25
DBH
Cro
wn
Rat
io
Douglas-fir
western hemlock
Stand 1
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
100
150
200
250
300
Bas
al A
rea
per
Acr
e
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 1
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
50
70
90
110
Ave
rage
Hei
ght
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 1
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
140
160
180
200
220
Tre
es p
er A
cre
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 1
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
CV
TS
per
Acr
e
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 1
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Average Height
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
CV
TS
per
Acr
e
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 1
CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
Per
cent
DF
Bas
al A
rea
Stand 1
CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Min
imum
DB
H
Stand 1
CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS
29
30
31
32
33
34
Max
imum
DB
H
Stand 1
Model TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTSCRYPTOS 183.9 237.5 106.3 10237 183.9 237.5 106.3 10237 183.9 237.5 106.3 10237DFSIM 175.0 249.6 117.8 12077 175.0 249.6 117.8 12077 175.0 249.6 117.8 12077FPS 147.9 214.7 97.4 9112 160.7 226.6 104.0 9514 190.9 236.1 105.9 9874FVS - PN 187.4 276.6 100.5 11259 200.5 301.2 100.9 12283 213.6 325.8 101.4 13306FVS - WC 203.2 227.3 96.3 9328 203.2 227.3 96.3 9328 203.2 227.3 96.3 9328ORGANON 160.2 224.3 86.1 9181 190.2 236.6 97.8 9519 197.0 271.5 105.2 11050SPS 175.0 232.5 98.7 9935 175.8 239.5 101.5 10205 176.5 246.5 104.4 10474TADAM 222.7 302.5 118.4 14709 222.7 302.5 118.4 14709 222.7 302.5 118.4 14709
Minimum Mean Maximum
Stand 2
• 40 Years Old (natural stand origin).• Site Index 99• TPA: 235• BA: 113 ft2
• QMD: 9.4 inches• 100% Douglas-fir
Stand 2Stand 2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
DBH
Tre
es p
er A
cre
Douglas-fir
Stand 2Stand 2
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
DBH
To
tal H
eig
ht
Douglas-fir
Stand 2Stand 2
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0 5 10 15 20 25
DBH
Cro
wn
Rat
io
Douglas-fir
Stand 2
35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
100
150
200
250
300
Bas
al A
rea
per
Acr
e
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 2
35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ave
rage
Hei
ght
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 2
35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
180
190
200
210
220
230
Tre
es p
er A
cre
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 2
35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
CV
TS
per
Acr
e
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 2
50 60 70 80 90 100
Average Height
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
CV
TS
per
Acr
e
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 2
CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS
1
2
3
4
5
Min
imum
DB
H
Stand 2
CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Max
imum
DB
H
Stand 2
Model TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTSCRYPTOS 200.0 206.2 88.8 7608 200.0 206.2 88.8 7608 200.0 206.2 88.8 7608DFSIM 193.0 185.9 101.3 8062 193.0 185.9 101.3 8062 193.0 185.9 101.3 8062FPS 189.6 178.1 85.1 6627 199.0 183.5 87.0 6706 214.5 192.1 88.1 6933FVS - PN 202.8 275.1 86.7 9512 214.1 291.6 86.8 10085 225.3 308.1 86.9 10659FVS - WC 217.1 214.0 87.3 7916 217.1 214.0 87.3 7916 217.1 214.0 87.3 7916ORGANON 194.6 208.9 80.0 7257 218.1 211.2 82.3 7375 223.2 219.0 84.7 7696SPS 208.5 170.6 83.6 6239 209.2 179.4 84.9 6661 209.9 188.3 86.2 7084TADAM 233.0 215.6 101.0 9388 233.0 215.6 101.0 9388 233.0 215.6 101.0 9388
Minimum Mean Maximum
Stand 3
• 30 Years Old (from planting)• Site Index 124• TPA: 239• BA: 95 ft2
• QMD: 8.5 inches• 89% Douglas-fir, 11% western hemlock
Stand 3Stand 3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
DBH
Tre
es p
er A
cre
western hemlock
Douglas-fir
Stand 3Stand 3
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
DBH
To
tal H
eig
ht
Douglas-fir
western hemlock
Stand 3Stand 3
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
DBH
Cro
wn
Rat
io
Douglas-fir
western hemlock
Stand 3
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
50
100
150
200
250
300
Bas
al A
rea
per
Acr
e
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 3
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
50
70
90
110
130
Ave
rage
Hei
ght
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 3
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
140
160
180
200
220
240
Tre
es p
er A
cre
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 3
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Total Age
0
5000
10000
15000
CV
TS
per
Acr
e
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 3
60 80 100 120
Average Height
0
5000
10000
15000
CV
TS
per
Acr
e
CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM
Stand 3
CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
Per
cent
DF
Bas
al A
rea
Stand 3
CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS
2
3
4
5
Min
imum
DB
H
Stand 3
CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS
25
27
29
31
Max
imum
DB
H
Stand 3
Model TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTSCRYPTOS 191.9 236.4 109.7 10549 191.9 236.4 109.7 10549 191.9 236.4 109.7 10549DFSIM 176.0 222.1 128.5 11991 176.0 222.1 128.5 11991 176.0 222.1 128.5 11991FPS 147.8 208.2 97.7 9143 160.1 217.3 105.3 9466 192.4 229.2 108.2 9961FVS - PN 195.4 274.3 103.6 11643 208.5 298.7 103.8 12685 221.6 323.1 104.0 13727FVS - WC 211.1 224.9 98.4 9432 211.1 224.9 98.4 9432 211.1 224.9 98.4 9432ORGANON 170.3 216.0 85.4 9232 197.2 230.7 99.5 9592 204.5 275.2 107.4 11354SPS 175.0 224.9 102.2 9865 179.6 230.5 106.3 10265 184.1 236.1 110.3 10665TADAM 222.7 307.6 128.4 16204 222.7 307.6 128.4 16204 222.7 307.6 128.4 16204
Minimum Mean Maximum
Model Projections at Age 60
CRYPTOS DFSIM FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS TADAM
200
300
200
300
200
300
Bas
al A
rea
per
Acr
e
stand: 1.00
stand: 2.00
stand: 3.00
Model Projections at Age 60
CRYPTOS DFSIM FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS TADAM
90
130
90
130
90
130
Ave
rage
Hei
ght
stand: 1.00
stand: 2.00
stand: 3.00
Model Projections at Age 60
CRYPTOS DFSIM FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS TADAM
150
200
150
200
150
200
Tre
es p
er A
cre
stand: 1.00
stand: 2.00
stand: 3.00
Model Projections at Age 60
CRYPTOS DFSIM FPS FVS - PN FVS - WCORGANON SPS TADAM
6000
12000
6000
12000
6000
12000
CV
TS
per
Acr
e
stand: 1.00
stand: 2.00
stand: 3.00
Model Projections at Age 60
60 80 100 120
Average Height
0
5000
10000
15000
CV
TS
per
Acr
e
Stand 3
Stand 1
Stand 2
The models appear toconform with Eichorn’sRule.
Growth Model Run-OffObservations
• “Region” effects are very large. FVS in particular can more than double volume between regions.
• There was variation among users running the same model and version.
• All models maintain a remarkably consistent relationship between stand height and volume.
• CRYPTOS projections were very similar to northern growth models.
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