growth model users group growth model run-off january 2002

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Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

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Page 1: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Growth Model Users Group

Growth Model Run-Off

January 2002

Page 2: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Growth Model Run-OffObjectives

• Compare the projections of three “typical” stands of predominately Douglas-fir using GMUG member growth models.

• Evaluate the repeatability of projections by the same model among users.

• Evaluate the consistency of projections among models.

Page 3: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

• Each GMUG member was provided with a dbh-class based tree list for each stand with heights, crown ratios and expansion factors.

• Site Index (King’s Douglas-fir) and total age were provided.

• Each member to project stands in 10-year increments to age 60.

Growth Model Run-OffMethods

Page 4: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

• 16 members responded.• 7 models used.

– CRYPTOS– DFSIM– FPS– FVS– ORGANON– SPS– TADAM (as TASS-derived model)

• 11 model versions.

Growth Model Run-OffResults

Page 5: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

– FPS• Oregon region - 5

• Washington region - 1

– FVS• Pacific NW Coast - 2

• West Cascades - 1

– TADAM - 1– CRYPTOS - 1

Growth Model Run-OffModel Versions

– ORGANON• SMC - 6

• Assisi - 1

– SPS• 4.1h - 1

• Pacific NW Region (2.HT) - 1

– DFSIM - 1

Page 6: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

• Problems/comments:– No location information given.

– Site index was not consistent with some stands’ exhibited height.

– Stand treatment history had to be assumed.

– Maximum SDI not specified.

– Some models (DFSIM, TADAM, CRYPTOS) do not know about western hemlock.

– Clumpiness and plot-level information not provided.

Growth Model Run-OffResults

Page 7: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

• 30 Years Old (from planting)• Site Index 115• TPA: 230• BA: 106 ft2

• QMD: 9.2 inches• 95% Douglas-fir, 5% western hemlock

Page 8: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1Stand 1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22

DBH

Tre

es p

er A

cre

western hemlock

Douglas-fir

Page 9: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1Stand 1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

0 5 10 15 20 25

DBH

To

tal H

eig

ht

Douglas-fir

western hemlock

Page 10: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1Stand 1

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0 5 10 15 20 25

DBH

Cro

wn

Rat

io

Douglas-fir

western hemlock

Page 11: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

100

150

200

250

300

Bas

al A

rea

per

Acr

e

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 12: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

50

70

90

110

Ave

rage

Hei

ght

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 13: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

140

160

180

200

220

Tre

es p

er A

cre

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 14: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

CV

TS

per

Acr

e

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 15: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Average Height

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

CV

TS

per

Acr

e

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 16: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

Per

cent

DF

Bas

al A

rea

Page 17: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Min

imum

DB

H

Page 18: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS

29

30

31

32

33

34

Max

imum

DB

H

Page 19: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 1

Model TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTSCRYPTOS 183.9 237.5 106.3 10237 183.9 237.5 106.3 10237 183.9 237.5 106.3 10237DFSIM 175.0 249.6 117.8 12077 175.0 249.6 117.8 12077 175.0 249.6 117.8 12077FPS 147.9 214.7 97.4 9112 160.7 226.6 104.0 9514 190.9 236.1 105.9 9874FVS - PN 187.4 276.6 100.5 11259 200.5 301.2 100.9 12283 213.6 325.8 101.4 13306FVS - WC 203.2 227.3 96.3 9328 203.2 227.3 96.3 9328 203.2 227.3 96.3 9328ORGANON 160.2 224.3 86.1 9181 190.2 236.6 97.8 9519 197.0 271.5 105.2 11050SPS 175.0 232.5 98.7 9935 175.8 239.5 101.5 10205 176.5 246.5 104.4 10474TADAM 222.7 302.5 118.4 14709 222.7 302.5 118.4 14709 222.7 302.5 118.4 14709

Minimum Mean Maximum

Page 20: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2

• 40 Years Old (natural stand origin).• Site Index 99• TPA: 235• BA: 113 ft2

• QMD: 9.4 inches• 100% Douglas-fir

Page 21: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2Stand 2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

DBH

Tre

es p

er A

cre

Douglas-fir

Page 22: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2Stand 2

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

0 5 10 15 20 25

DBH

To

tal H

eig

ht

Douglas-fir

Page 23: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2Stand 2

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

0 5 10 15 20 25

DBH

Cro

wn

Rat

io

Douglas-fir

Page 24: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2

35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

100

150

200

250

300

Bas

al A

rea

per

Acr

e

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 25: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2

35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ave

rage

Hei

ght

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 26: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2

35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

180

190

200

210

220

230

Tre

es p

er A

cre

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 27: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2

35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

CV

TS

per

Acr

e

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 28: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2

50 60 70 80 90 100

Average Height

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

CV

TS

per

Acr

e

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 29: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2

CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS

1

2

3

4

5

Min

imum

DB

H

Page 30: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2

CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

Max

imum

DB

H

Page 31: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 2

Model TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTSCRYPTOS 200.0 206.2 88.8 7608 200.0 206.2 88.8 7608 200.0 206.2 88.8 7608DFSIM 193.0 185.9 101.3 8062 193.0 185.9 101.3 8062 193.0 185.9 101.3 8062FPS 189.6 178.1 85.1 6627 199.0 183.5 87.0 6706 214.5 192.1 88.1 6933FVS - PN 202.8 275.1 86.7 9512 214.1 291.6 86.8 10085 225.3 308.1 86.9 10659FVS - WC 217.1 214.0 87.3 7916 217.1 214.0 87.3 7916 217.1 214.0 87.3 7916ORGANON 194.6 208.9 80.0 7257 218.1 211.2 82.3 7375 223.2 219.0 84.7 7696SPS 208.5 170.6 83.6 6239 209.2 179.4 84.9 6661 209.9 188.3 86.2 7084TADAM 233.0 215.6 101.0 9388 233.0 215.6 101.0 9388 233.0 215.6 101.0 9388

Minimum Mean Maximum

Page 32: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

• 30 Years Old (from planting)• Site Index 124• TPA: 239• BA: 95 ft2

• QMD: 8.5 inches• 89% Douglas-fir, 11% western hemlock

Page 33: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3Stand 3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

DBH

Tre

es p

er A

cre

western hemlock

Douglas-fir

Page 34: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3Stand 3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

DBH

To

tal H

eig

ht

Douglas-fir

western hemlock

Page 35: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3Stand 3

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

DBH

Cro

wn

Rat

io

Douglas-fir

western hemlock

Page 36: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

50

100

150

200

250

300

Bas

al A

rea

per

Acr

e

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 37: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

50

70

90

110

130

Ave

rage

Hei

ght

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 38: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

140

160

180

200

220

240

Tre

es p

er A

cre

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 39: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Total Age

0

5000

10000

15000

CV

TS

per

Acr

e

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 40: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

60 80 100 120

Average Height

0

5000

10000

15000

CV

TS

per

Acr

e

CRYPTOSDFSIMFPSFVS - PNFVS - WCORGANONSPSTADAM

Page 41: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

Per

cent

DF

Bas

al A

rea

Page 42: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS

2

3

4

5

Min

imum

DB

H

Page 43: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

CRYPTOS FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS

25

27

29

31

Max

imum

DB

H

Page 44: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Stand 3

Model TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTS TPA BA Ave Height CVTSCRYPTOS 191.9 236.4 109.7 10549 191.9 236.4 109.7 10549 191.9 236.4 109.7 10549DFSIM 176.0 222.1 128.5 11991 176.0 222.1 128.5 11991 176.0 222.1 128.5 11991FPS 147.8 208.2 97.7 9143 160.1 217.3 105.3 9466 192.4 229.2 108.2 9961FVS - PN 195.4 274.3 103.6 11643 208.5 298.7 103.8 12685 221.6 323.1 104.0 13727FVS - WC 211.1 224.9 98.4 9432 211.1 224.9 98.4 9432 211.1 224.9 98.4 9432ORGANON 170.3 216.0 85.4 9232 197.2 230.7 99.5 9592 204.5 275.2 107.4 11354SPS 175.0 224.9 102.2 9865 179.6 230.5 106.3 10265 184.1 236.1 110.3 10665TADAM 222.7 307.6 128.4 16204 222.7 307.6 128.4 16204 222.7 307.6 128.4 16204

Minimum Mean Maximum

Page 45: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Model Projections at Age 60

CRYPTOS DFSIM FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS TADAM

200

300

200

300

200

300

Bas

al A

rea

per

Acr

e

stand: 1.00

stand: 2.00

stand: 3.00

Page 46: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Model Projections at Age 60

CRYPTOS DFSIM FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS TADAM

90

130

90

130

90

130

Ave

rage

Hei

ght

stand: 1.00

stand: 2.00

stand: 3.00

Page 47: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Model Projections at Age 60

CRYPTOS DFSIM FPS FVS - PN FVS - WC ORGANON SPS TADAM

150

200

150

200

150

200

Tre

es p

er A

cre

stand: 1.00

stand: 2.00

stand: 3.00

Page 48: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Model Projections at Age 60

CRYPTOS DFSIM FPS FVS - PN FVS - WCORGANON SPS TADAM

6000

12000

6000

12000

6000

12000

CV

TS

per

Acr

e

stand: 1.00

stand: 2.00

stand: 3.00

Page 49: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Model Projections at Age 60

60 80 100 120

Average Height

0

5000

10000

15000

CV

TS

per

Acr

e

Stand 3

Stand 1

Stand 2

The models appear toconform with Eichorn’sRule.

Page 50: Growth Model Users Group Growth Model Run-Off January 2002

Growth Model Run-OffObservations

• “Region” effects are very large. FVS in particular can more than double volume between regions.

• There was variation among users running the same model and version.

• All models maintain a remarkably consistent relationship between stand height and volume.

• CRYPTOS projections were very similar to northern growth models.