foresight & open innovation at volkswagen - an approach

Foresight & Open Innovation at Volkswagen An approach: Combining the Scenario & Information Market Methods

Caroline V. Rudzinski, AutoUni – Volkswagen AG

2

FRAMING

Theoretical approach

and understanding

INSIGHTS

Volkswagen project

Interference Circle

3

STRATEGY

„the Frame“

INNOVATION

„the New“

Organization

(secure existence)

Short term Long term

Expectations

of the future

influence the

actuel decisions

(Backcasting)

Innovations

influence

the future.

Interdependence of Innovation Future Strategy

3D-Printer (Mass Customization)

Crowd Funding

Source: kickstarter

Connectivity

(Gamification)

Interference Circle

5

STRATEGY

„the Frame“

INNOVATION

„the New“

Organization

(secure existence)

Short term Long term

Expectations

of the future

influence the

actuel decisions

(Backcasting)

Innovations

influence

the future.

Abteilung: K-SE-6 Stand: 04.12.2014 6

“It is also about knowing where to look more

carefully for clues, how to interpret the weak

signals, and how to act when the signals are still

ambiguous.”

George S. Day & Paul J.H. Schoemaker

Strategic Foresight

Organizational challenges

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“Most organizations lack sufficient capacity to detect, interpret and act on the

critically important but weak and ambiguous signals of fresh threats or new

opportunities that emerge on the periphery of their usual business

environment.”

George S. Day & Paul J.H. Schoemaker

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Volkswagen Future Affairs & Trendtransfer: Supporting Strategy &

Innovation by Foresight

Competence of the AutoUni

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Based on innovative methods and formats the AutoUni provides access to relevant knowledge in

cooperation with top level universities/institutions and experts worldwide.

Volkswagen Group

Knowledge generation

Knowledge transfer

Knowledge supply

Advisory

Board

(Experts)

Departe-

ment

Universities, technical

colleges and research

establishments

The approach: The Volkswagen Project

Interference Circle

11

INNOVATION

„the New“

STRATEGY

„the New“

Organization

(secure existence)

Short term Long term

Expectations

of the future

influence the

actuel decisions

(Backcasting)

Innovations

influence

the future.

Interference Circle

12

INNOVATION

„the New“

STRATEGY

„the New“

Organization

(secure existence)

Short term Long term

Oscillation

between the two

contrary poles

contributes to

ensure the

company's

survival

Different characteristics

Combination of the Wind Tunneling Approach with the Information Market

Method

„…knowing where to look…“:

Identifying relevant future fields

Wind Tunneling

Wisdom of the

crowd

can lead to better

estimations than

asking a single

person

Market

mechanism

aggregates

knowledge

efficiently

Infor-

mation

Markte

Information Market

„…how to act …“:

Aggregation and transparency of the

Wisdom of the crowd

+

= FOCUS = DIFFUSION

1. Phase: Creating four Scenarios

2. Phase: Identifying consistent strategic options by "Wind Tunneling"

approach

3. Phase: Identification of

promising fields for future innovation using

Open Innovation approach

4. Phase:

Decision on strategy and top innovations

Identifying relevant future fields and strategic options via the Wind

Tunneling approach

Plane: Own strategy

Tunnel: Environmental scenarios

Wind: Robustness check

(best fit strategies)

Identifying consistent strategic options by using scenario "Wind Tunneling"

Strategic options

Environmental scenarios

Key

Factors

Projections

Scenario 1

Consistent

strategic option

for scenario 1

Projections

Key

factors

Matching between scenarios and strategic options

Identification of consistent and robust strategy

Gap analysis for current strategy

Based on the results from the “Wind Tunneling phase”, relevant

future fields of innovation have been identified and via an Open

Innovation approach the “crowd” was invited to give their input.

The Open Innovation Approach: Information Markets

Process overview

Defining relevant questions

Idea generation & evaluation

Screening “Selection Board”

Top 10 ideas

Selection “Jury”

Winning idea(s)

The Open Innovation Approach: Information markets

Information markets effectively pool the “wisdom of the crowd” through a virtual “stock exchange”

Each participant may

bring his own idea(s)

to the market.

Each participant receives

play money and can “bet“

on good ideas.

The provider of top ideas,

comments and the best

traders will be rewarded.

Participants can

comment on ideas.

Outcome Strategic Options

Critical success factors were identified.

Identification of consistent and robust strategy.

All departments of the Group Research participated on the Information

Market.

Relevant strategic issues were placed across the organization.

The winning ideas are being further elaborated.

136 ideas, 250 comments and 2642 trades.

Information market: Knowledge is made transparent across departments

• New insights into complex issues.

• Access to otherwise unconsidered input.

• Possibility to easily localize experts with

relevant insights.

• Evaluation of the potential success of the implementation of

the ideas.

Information market encourages the innovative capacity of companies

Transaction data of the Information Markets.

Colors according organizational unit.

It enabled a

• structured and transparent, bottom-up

and top-down analysis,

• qualified discussion on different

consistent possible future strategies and

future innovations and

• it also provided the basis for identifying

white spots within the current research

agenda.

Combining the Strategic Foresight and Open Innovation approach is able

to generate strategic insights/value and to establish a long term

perspective on strategy, embedded within an iterative learning cycle on

strategy and innovation.

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It is about anticipating future development,

by having a plan (strategy),

but also about knowing how to act (innovation)

Thank you.

Caroline V. Rudzinski

AutoUni

VOLKSWAGEN AG

caroline.rudzinski@volkswagen.de

Learning

Abteilung: K-SE-6 Stand: 04.12.2014 27

•Supported by top management.

•Allocated sufficient resource and capacity.

•Cross functional teams.

•Embedded with business units.

Organisational enablers

Futures thinking must be owned and adequately supported.

•Clear objectives.

•Sufficiently broad to generate new thinking.

•Accepting of multiple futures.

•Consultative: Internally and externally.

Prozess enablers

The process must be plural, engaging and focused.

•Make the process transparent

•Outputs tailored to be relevant to corporate strategy.

• Iterative.

• Integrated into planning process.

•Established audience.

Implementation enablers

The implementation must be strategic and sufficiently

embedded.

Combining Foresight and Open Innovation fosters a vigilant organizational

mind-set.

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It is characterized by

• the ability to “think outside the box” (peripheral vision)

• resources/capacity devoted to long-term strategy making

Defining a

consistence

strategy

Input of the crowd to

relevant

future fields

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Organization

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XXX

Secure Existence.

The wisdom of the crowd – at Volkswagen

App my Ride Open idea contest for development of apps for car infotainment (2010):

385 ideas (from 104 persons), 96 apps (from 49 persons),

528 participants, 1991 evaluations, 1283 messages, 1448 comments

Idea contest “Think Blue. Ideas.” On the Think Blue internet platform people could contribute ideas that represent the

Think Blue philosophy and concern the issue of sustainability.

People’s Car Project Chinese internet users could bring their ideas about how a car of the future might look

via the “People‘s Car Project“ internet platform.

Information Market Employees of the Group Research were able to contribute ideas and comments to,

and evaluations of, strategically relevant questions.

Abteilung: K-SE-6 Stand: 04.12.2014 32

“The essence of strategy is

choosing what not to do. ”

Michael E. Porter

“Leaders establish the vision for the future and set the

strategy for getting there.”

John P. Kotter

“You’ve got to think about big things while

you’re doing small things, so that all the small

things go in the right direction.”

Alvin Toffler

Function of Strategy

Identifying relevant future fields an strategic options via the Wind

Tunneling approach

Plane: Own strategy

Tunnel: Environmental scenarios

Wind: Robustness check

(best fit strategies)

Der Wind Tunneling Ansatz als

dynamische Strategieentwicklung in

Abhängigkeit von zukünftig denkbaren

Umfeldentwicklungen:

Eigene Strategieoptionen –definiert durch

erfolgskritische Schlüsselfelder—werden

einem „Stresstest“ unterzogen.

Es wird überprüfen, wie das Unternehmen

für die möglichen Zukunftsentwicklungen

aufgestellt ist und ob an der Strategie ggf.

nachjustieren werden muss.

The Open Innovation Approach supports structures for a “Learning

Organization”

“Open Innovation means that valuable ideas can come from inside or outside

the company can go to market from inside or outside the company as well. This

approach places external ideas and external paths to market on the same level

of importance as that reserved for internal ideas and paths to market during the

Closed Innovation era.”

Henry Chesbrough

Caroline V. Rudzinski

The Open Innovation Approach supports structures for a “Learning

Organization”

“Open Innovation means that valuable ideas can come from inside or outside

the company can go to market from inside or outside the company as well. This

approach places external ideas and external paths to market on the same level

of importance as that reserved for internal ideas and paths to market during the

Closed Innovation era.”

Henry Chesbrough

Keep the organization „on the go“

in order to ensure progress:

Maintenance of routine

while opening up for new

things and questioning

existing options.

BUT:

What are the relevant (new)

fields/options to question?

The power of Open Innovation

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Crowd Sourcing 855

Personen

Quelle: Quirky

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