extreme events, scenario developments across disciplines. peter koltermann natural risk assessment...

Extreme events, Scenario Developments across Disciplines.

Peter Koltermann Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography,

Moscow State University

NRAL Seminar, P P Shirshov Institute, Moscow

March 23, 2012

- Task Team on Catalogue of extreme events- Develop Scenarios for Model Runs- Next work and activities- logistics, travel, work shops- NRAL Summer-Workshop

- Business: consumables, software, travel, meetings, workshops

Agenda• 9.30 Coffee and snacks• 10.00 Peter Koltermann Introduction • Sergey Gulev On which Time-Scales does the Ocean

drive the Atmosphere ?• Igor Zveryaev Russian Summer Heat Wave 2010:

Climatological Background and Intraseasonal Evolution»

• Vladimir Semenov Cold winters of the 21st century as a non-linear atmosphere circulation response to the Arctic sea ice melt

• Natalya Tilinina Intercomparison of Cyclone Characteristics from different Methods and Products

• Evgenii Kulikov Modelling Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea• Victor Arkhipkin Time series of significant wave heights on

the Сaspian Sea

.

• Daria Gushina Synoptical situations associated to the various types of inundations in European part of Russia

• Inna Krylenko Flooding of the coastal zones• Elena Ilyushina Calculating risk, economical and

individual»• Break 12:30 – 14:00• Sergey Mukhametov Report of Task Team «Catalogue

of hazards of the coastal zone»• Discussion with participants

• General Discussion• - Next work and activities• - logistics, travel, work shops• - NRAL Summer-Workshop• Any other business

Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011,

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011, Shin-shi railway station,

Historical Data Bases

Risk Assessment

Coastal impactsHazard - Uncertainty

Exposure

Vulnerability

( )Zf z

( )xf x

( )z g x

( )E z

( )V z

( ) ( ) ( ) ,ZR f z E z V z dz

risk

vulnerability

haza

rd

exposure

The “risk triangle” after Crichton (1999)

Methodology

Castaneda

Flooding level= MSL+ astronomical tide+ storm surge+ wave run-up

500 years return level (m)Long-term trend of annual maxima of flooding level (cm/year)

parallel isobaths (Snell’s law) + Stockdon et al. (2006)

Castaneda