Russian Summer Heat Wave 2010: Climatological Background and Intraseasonal Evolution

Igor Zveryaev, Yulia Zyulyaeva Sergey Gulev, Klaus Peter Koltermann

P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RASMoscow State University

H500 height 30.07.2010 – 10.08.2010

Polland, SE Germany, Czech Rep.

Central Russia

Pakistan

Long-lasting and stable blocking over the Central and Western Eurasia resulted in disastrous heat wave in European Russia, anomalous precipitation

and associated flooding in Western Europe and in Pakistan

Impacts of anomalous summer 2010

Questions:

- The extent to which Russian Heat Wave 2010 was similar/different compared to the past anomalous summers of the last century. - Whether the circulation conditions over the Northern Hemisphere and SST anomalies in the Atlantic were different. - If the intraseasonal evolution of the Russian Heat Wave 2010 was different from other similar events.

Approach:

To select cases of strong positive temperature anomalies over European Russia during the last century and to analyze associated quasi-time series of SLP and SST in order to retrieve the leading modes in these potentially provoking hot summers. To compare the key features of the Russian summer heat waves of 2010 and 1972.

2010 Monthly Air Temperature Anomalies over European RussiaNASA-GISSNCEP/NCAR

July

Aug

1972 1981 2002

Normalized AT Anomalies over European Russia (35-45E, 50-60N)

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010years

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

norm

aliz

ed a

nom

aly

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010years

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

norm

aliz

ed a

nom

aly

2010 anomaly is the strongest in the record (6.93 K) The macrostructure of the anomaly was different from the other years At the same time, regional structure of the anomaly in European Russia was comparable to that in earlier years

AUG anomalies

JUL anomalies

Northern Hemisphere SLP Anomalies Associated with Hot Summers over European Russia

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010years

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

norm

aliz

ed a

nom

aly

1972 2010

Leading EOF Modes of the Summer SLP over the Atlantic-Eurasian Sector

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

norm

aliz

ed P

Cs

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

norm

aliz

ed P

Cs

Leading EOF Modes of the Summer Atlantic SST

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

norm

aliz

ed P

Cs

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

norm

aliz

ed P

Cs

Pre-selection of “warm” (+) and “hot” (1σ) years and building virtual space-time series of SLP and SST

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010years

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

norm

aliz

ed a

nom

aly

EOF analysis of the pre-selected times series: considerations of only SLP and SST patterns associated with “warm” and “hot” months

EOFs of SLP obtained for pre-selected Russian “Warm” and “Hot” summers06

_194

8

08_1

948

08_1

951

08_1

953

06_1

954

07_1

954

06_1

956

08_1

967

06_1

972

07_1

972

08_1

972

06_1

981

07_1

981

08_1

985

06_1

988

07_1

988

06_1

989

06_1

991

06_1

995

06_1

998

06_1

999

07_1

999

07_2

001

07_2

002

06_2

006

08_2

007

06_2

010

07_2

010

08_2

010

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

“Warm”

“Hot”

PC1

PC2

EOFs of Atlantic SST obtained for pre-selected Russian “Warm” and “Hot” summers

“Warm”

“Hot”

2010

1972

08_1

951

08_1

953

06_1

954

07_1

954

06_1

956

08_1

967

06_1

972

07_1

972

08_1

972

06_1

981

07_1

981

08_1

985

06_1

988

07_1

988

06_1

989

06_1

991

06_1

995

06_1

998

06_1

999

07_1

999

07_2

001

07_2

002

06_2

006

08_2

007

06_2

010

07_2

010

08_2

010

-2

-1

0

1

2

PC1PC2

JJA SLP anomalies for 2010 (a), for 1972 (b) and 500 hPa heights anomalies for 2010 (c) and for 1972 (d).

Summer (JJA) daily air temperature anomalies (red curve) and NAO index (blue curve) for 2010 (a) and 1972 (b).

Correlations between AT over European Russia and SLP for 2010 (a) and for 1972 (b). The same for 500 hPa for 2010 (c) and for 1972 (d).

EOF-1(18%) and EOF-2 (11%) of the daily JJA SLP for 2010 (a, b respectively). EOF-1(19%) and EOF-2 (11%) of the daily JJA SLP for 1972 (c, d respectively).

Correlations between AT anomalies over European Russia (50N-60N, 35E-45E), the NAO index and the leading principal components (PC-1 and PC-2) of SLP.

CONCLUSIONS-While the regional (over European Russia) structure of the surface AT anomalies during 2010 summer was similar to the previous anomalous events of e.g. 1972, 1981, 2002, large scale AT anomaly patterns during those summers were quite different.

- EOF analysis applied to the SLP and SST for the pre-selected “warm” and “hot” Russian summers allowed for identification of the circulation modes and SST patterns associated with anomalously warm cases.

- SLP pattern, although retrieves the blocking conditions, does not provide insights on the mechanisms leading to the AT anomaly. SST patterns show a clear association of the AT anomaly either with the EOF-1 (like in 2010) or with the EOF-2 (like in 1972) of pre-selected time series.

- During the two hottest summers of 2010 and 1972 intraseasonal evolution of the AT anomalies over European Russia was quite different. Moreover, their relation to the NAO was also different. Overall, results of the present analysis suggest that there are at least two (probably more) different mechanisms that drive Russian summer heat waves.