extreme events, scenario developments across disciplines. peter koltermann natural risk assessment...
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Extreme events, Scenario Developments across Disciplines.
Peter Koltermann Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography,
Moscow State University
NRAL Seminar, P P Shirshov Institute, Moscow
March 23, 2012
- Task Team on Catalogue of extreme events- Develop Scenarios for Model Runs- Next work and activities- logistics, travel, work shops- NRAL Summer-Workshop
- Business: consumables, software, travel, meetings, workshops
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Agenda• 9.30 Coffee and snacks• 10.00 Peter Koltermann Introduction • Sergey Gulev On which Time-Scales does the Ocean
drive the Atmosphere ?• Igor Zveryaev Russian Summer Heat Wave 2010:
Climatological Background and Intraseasonal Evolution»
• Vladimir Semenov Cold winters of the 21st century as a non-linear atmosphere circulation response to the Arctic sea ice melt
• Natalya Tilinina Intercomparison of Cyclone Characteristics from different Methods and Products
• Evgenii Kulikov Modelling Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea• Victor Arkhipkin Time series of significant wave heights on
the Сaspian Sea
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• Daria Gushina Synoptical situations associated to the various types of inundations in European part of Russia
• Inna Krylenko Flooding of the coastal zones• Elena Ilyushina Calculating risk, economical and
individual»• Break 12:30 – 14:00• Sergey Mukhametov Report of Task Team «Catalogue
of hazards of the coastal zone»• Discussion with participants
• General Discussion• - Next work and activities• - logistics, travel, work shops• - NRAL Summer-Workshop• Any other business
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Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes
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Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011
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Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011,
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Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011, Shin-shi railway station,
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Historical Data Bases
Risk Assessment
Coastal impactsHazard - Uncertainty
Exposure
Vulnerability
( )Zf z
( )xf x
( )z g x
( )E z
( )V z
( ) ( ) ( ) ,ZR f z E z V z dz
risk
vulnerability
haza
rd
exposure
The “risk triangle” after Crichton (1999)
Methodology
Castaneda
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Flooding level= MSL+ astronomical tide+ storm surge+ wave run-up
500 years return level (m)Long-term trend of annual maxima of flooding level (cm/year)
parallel isobaths (Snell’s law) + Stockdon et al. (2006)
Castaneda