2010 election update evan tracey president campaign media analysis group, a kantar media solution
Post on 29-Jan-2016
222 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
2010 ELECTION UPDATE
EVAN TRACEYPRESIDENT CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYSIS GROUP, A KANTAR MEDIA SOLUTION
Kantar Media – Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG)
Innovative technology, experienced professionals
Providing Political Ad Research Since 1997
Tracking and Analyzing Political, Public Affairs and Issue-Advocacy Advertising
Experienced Political Researchers
Advising Clients on Media Strategy, Forecasting Media Buys, Public Relations and Crisis Communication
2© 2010 Kantar Media
3© 2010 Kantar Media
Unique Insights…Unique Insights…
CUSTOM SYNDICATED MODEL
Campaign Media Analysis Group
…Easily Viewed In Flexible Formats
…Easily Viewed In Flexible Formats
2010 Election Ad Outlook
2010 Ad Landscape
2010 Election Themes
2010 Stretch Run
4© 2010 Kantar Media
2010 ELECTION OUTLOOK
Political Media Trends Campaigns Still Spend At
the End Ad Spending $160m Above
The Same Time Period in 2006.
Broadcast Media Receiving Bulk of Campaign Spending.
Digital and Social Media, Radio and Cable spending Also Up.
5© 2010 Kantar Media
2010 CAMPAIGN LANDSCAPE
What is Driving Ad Spending in 2010?
1. Competitive, Multi-Candidate and Special Elections
2. Control of Congress is at Stake
3. Big Issues Nationally and Locally
4. Early Voting and Changes to Campaign Law
6© 2010 Kantar Media
Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon – Federal Races
Party Control at Stake U.S. House & Senate
• House and Senate Over 100 U.S. House Races
are Considered ‘In-Play’ Bonus & Surprisingly
Competitive Senate Races
7© 2010 Kantar Media
Political Climate = The Return of Incumbent Return of Incumbent InsecurityInsecurity
Political Climate = The Return of Incumbent Return of Incumbent InsecurityInsecurity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Dollars (millions)
1/1/10-9/6/10 1/1/06-9/6/06
Time Period
Federal Level Spending
Candidate
Group/Party
Issue
8© 2010 Kantar Media
Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon State & Local
State & Local Races
37 Governors Running
More than Half of Governors will be New the Day After 2010 Elections
Big State & Stakes
Strong Party Committees
Angry Unions
Ballot Measures
Down-Ballot Turnover
9© 2010 Kantar Media
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Dollars (millions)
1/1/10-9/6/10 1/1/06-9/6/06
Time Period
State Level Spending
Candidate
Group/Party
Issue
10© 2010 Kantar Media
Candidates &Groups/Party Spending Up
Candidates &Groups/Party Spending Up
2010 Issue Ads
• Year Over Year Consistent Spending
• Migrating to Network & Cable 2/3 of Spending is National
• Remainder of 2010 Policy Becomes Politics in
Even Years “Obamacare” Rebranding &
Post Gulf Spill Energy Bill New England Triangle Possibility of a “Lame Duck”
Session
11© 2010 Kantar Media
Role of the Digital Media in 2010
More Spending… But Still a Fraction
Campaign Doing More With Social Media Tools & Video
Web Video Grabbing Headlines, Not Winning Elections
OFA is MIA Online Working to Become a
Bigger Part of the End Game Online Raising More Money
for Traditional
“In the past, campaigns may have had a conversation about whether they should invest time and resources in new media, now they just do it naturally,” said Jennifer Crider, deputy executive director/communications director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Doug Heye, communications director of the Republican National Committee: As for the future, “hasn’t seen anyone cut their television advertising budget,” because of the advances in technology, but, he added, that he has seen direct-mail budgets slashed.
“In the past, campaigns may have had a conversation about whether they should invest time and resources in new media, now they just do it naturally,” said Jennifer Crider, deputy executive director/communications director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Doug Heye, communications director of the Republican National Committee: As for the future, “hasn’t seen anyone cut their television advertising budget,” because of the advances in technology, but, he added, that he has seen direct-mail budgets slashed.
12© 2010 Kantar Media
The Political Climate & Themes For 2010
13© 2010 Kantar Media
2010 Political Climate
– Republicans are leading Democrats on the economy, jobs and federal spending
– The president’s approval rating among Independents is only 40%, share of voters who identify as Independents is up to 16%
– Polls show that the engagedengaged voters are angry about spending and the stimulus package; advantage GOP
Mostly bad news for the DemocratsMostly bad news for the Democrats
14© 2010 Kantar Media
“A month is a light year in politics.”
— Gov. Haley Barbour
“A month is a light year in politics.”
— Gov. Haley Barbour
Political Theme2010 is the “Break Room” Election
• Swing Voter is Employed »Economic Insecurity = Incumbent Insecurity»Impact or Lack There Of – Washington Policy Making »Spending, Debt & Bailouts»This is a “Role of Government” Election»Over Half of All Ads Negative So Far
15© 2010 Kantar Media
Incumbents are running away from Washington and Directly Toward Their Opponents
Incumbents are running away from Washington and Directly Toward Their Opponents
The Stretch Run
16© 2010 Kantar Media
What to “Expect” the Final 7 Weeks
• Historically 75% of Political Ad Spending
• Local Campaigns Going On The Air
• Extremely Negative Rhetoric
• Democrats Leverage Money & Firewall Strategy
House, Senate & Gov’s Spending More than $5 Million Per Day on Average
House, Senate & Gov’s Spending More than $5 Million Per Day on Average
17© 2010 Kantar Media
2010 FORECAST: THE BIG QUESTIONWILL THERE BE MONEY?
•2010 Record Fundraising
•$1 Billion COH & $1.2 Billion Raised this Year (Federal)
Some Party Committees Lagging, While Others are Setting Records
Groups/Unions Filling the Gaps
“There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.”
…William McKinley
“There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.”
…William McKinley
18© 2010 Kantar Media
Impact of “Citizens United”
Groups Come in Various Sizes
•Return of the Super PAC’s
•State & Race Specific Groups
•No More Magic Words
•Limited Role For Corporations
19© 2010 Kantar Media
Fighting Over the Same Ground
•Heaviest Spend at the End•Moving In and Out of the “Hot Races”•Targeting “Trophy Races”
Fighting Over the Same Ground
•Heaviest Spend at the End•Moving In and Out of the “Hot Races”•Targeting “Trophy Races”
End Game For Political Ads
Personal, Negative & Plentiful Final Ad Push Could Go
National Unclear Role of the Groups Online Working to be a Bigger
Part of the End Game
At this time, we feel ad spending in the 2010 elections along with issue spending will be better than the 2008 & 2006 cycles, and there is greater upside at this point.
20© 2010 Kantar Media
Numbers to Watch This Fall
•Last Day of Oktoberfest •How Many Democrat Strategists on Cable News Shows Predict The U.S. House is a “Lost Cause”• Status of the Bush Tax Cuts•Approval Ratings for the President vs. Tea Party •Poll Numbers in Senate & Governors’ Races •Late Fundraising Totals by Party
•Halloween•October Surprises? •Financial Markets•Final Unemployment Numbers •Consumer Confidence •Right Track/Wrong Track Numbers
•Last Day of Oktoberfest •How Many Democrat Strategists on Cable News Shows Predict The U.S. House is a “Lost Cause”• Status of the Bush Tax Cuts•Approval Ratings for the President vs. Tea Party •Poll Numbers in Senate & Governors’ Races •Late Fundraising Totals by Party
•Halloween•October Surprises? •Financial Markets•Final Unemployment Numbers •Consumer Confidence •Right Track/Wrong Track Numbers
21© 2010 Kantar Media
How Many Of These People Are In Iowa on November 3, 2010!
22© 2010 Kantar Media
top related