2010 election update evan tracey president campaign media analysis group, a kantar media solution

2010 ELECTION UPDATE

EVAN TRACEYPRESIDENT CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYSIS GROUP, A KANTAR MEDIA SOLUTION

Kantar Media – Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG)

Innovative technology, experienced professionals

Providing Political Ad Research Since 1997

Tracking and Analyzing Political, Public Affairs and Issue-Advocacy Advertising

Experienced Political Researchers

Advising Clients on Media Strategy, Forecasting Media Buys, Public Relations and Crisis Communication

2© 2010 Kantar Media


Unique Insights…Unique Insights…

CUSTOM SYNDICATED MODEL

Campaign Media Analysis Group

…Easily Viewed In Flexible Formats

…Easily Viewed In Flexible Formats

2010 Election Ad Outlook

2010 Ad Landscape

2010 Election Themes

2010 Stretch Run


2010 ELECTION OUTLOOK

Political Media Trends Campaigns Still Spend At

the End Ad Spending $160m Above

The Same Time Period in 2006.

Broadcast Media Receiving Bulk of Campaign Spending.

Digital and Social Media, Radio and Cable spending Also Up.


2010 CAMPAIGN LANDSCAPE

What is Driving Ad Spending in 2010?

1. Competitive, Multi-Candidate and Special Elections

2. Control of Congress is at Stake

3. Big Issues Nationally and Locally

4. Early Voting and Changes to Campaign Law


Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon – Federal Races

Party Control at Stake U.S. House & Senate

• House and Senate Over 100 U.S. House Races

are Considered ‘In-Play’ Bonus & Surprisingly

Competitive Senate Races


Political Climate = The Return of Incumbent Return of Incumbent InsecurityInsecurity

Political Climate = The Return of Incumbent Return of Incumbent InsecurityInsecurity

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Dollars (millions)

1/1/10-9/6/10 1/1/06-9/6/06

Time Period

Federal Level Spending

Candidate

Group/Party

Issue


Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon State & Local

State & Local Races

37 Governors Running

More than Half of Governors will be New the Day After 2010 Elections

Big State & Stakes

Strong Party Committees

Angry Unions

Ballot Measures

Down-Ballot Turnover


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Dollars (millions)

1/1/10-9/6/10 1/1/06-9/6/06

Time Period

State Level Spending

Candidate

Group/Party

Issue


Candidates &Groups/Party Spending Up

Candidates &Groups/Party Spending Up

2010 Issue Ads

• Year Over Year Consistent Spending

• Migrating to Network & Cable 2/3 of Spending is National

• Remainder of 2010 Policy Becomes Politics in

Even Years “Obamacare” Rebranding &

Post Gulf Spill Energy Bill New England Triangle Possibility of a “Lame Duck”

Session


Role of the Digital Media in 2010

More Spending… But Still a Fraction

Campaign Doing More With Social Media Tools & Video

Web Video Grabbing Headlines, Not Winning Elections

OFA is MIA Online Working to Become a

Bigger Part of the End Game Online Raising More Money

for Traditional

“In the past, campaigns may have had a conversation about whether they should invest time and resources in new media, now they just do it naturally,” said Jennifer Crider, deputy executive director/communications director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Doug Heye, communications director of the Republican National Committee: As for the future, “hasn’t seen anyone cut their television advertising budget,” because of the advances in technology, but, he added, that he has seen direct-mail budgets slashed.

“In the past, campaigns may have had a conversation about whether they should invest time and resources in new media, now they just do it naturally,” said Jennifer Crider, deputy executive director/communications director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Doug Heye, communications director of the Republican National Committee: As for the future, “hasn’t seen anyone cut their television advertising budget,” because of the advances in technology, but, he added, that he has seen direct-mail budgets slashed.


The Political Climate & Themes For 2010


2010 Political Climate

– Republicans are leading Democrats on the economy, jobs and federal spending

– The president’s approval rating among Independents is only 40%, share of voters who identify as Independents is up to 16%

– Polls show that the engagedengaged voters are angry about spending and the stimulus package; advantage GOP

Mostly bad news for the DemocratsMostly bad news for the Democrats


“A month is a light year in politics.”

— Gov. Haley Barbour

“A month is a light year in politics.”

— Gov. Haley Barbour

Political Theme2010 is the “Break Room” Election

• Swing Voter is Employed »Economic Insecurity = Incumbent Insecurity»Impact or Lack There Of – Washington Policy Making »Spending, Debt & Bailouts»This is a “Role of Government” Election»Over Half of All Ads Negative So Far


Incumbents are running away from Washington and Directly Toward Their Opponents

Incumbents are running away from Washington and Directly Toward Their Opponents

The Stretch Run


What to “Expect” the Final 7 Weeks

• Historically 75% of Political Ad Spending

• Local Campaigns Going On The Air

• Extremely Negative Rhetoric

• Democrats Leverage Money & Firewall Strategy

House, Senate & Gov’s Spending More than $5 Million Per Day on Average

House, Senate & Gov’s Spending More than $5 Million Per Day on Average


2010 FORECAST: THE BIG QUESTIONWILL THERE BE MONEY?

•2010 Record Fundraising

•$1 Billion COH & $1.2 Billion Raised this Year (Federal)

Some Party Committees Lagging, While Others are Setting Records

Groups/Unions Filling the Gaps

“There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.”

…William McKinley

“There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.”

…William McKinley


Impact of “Citizens United”

Groups Come in Various Sizes

•Return of the Super PAC’s

•State & Race Specific Groups

•No More Magic Words

•Limited Role For Corporations


Fighting Over the Same Ground

•Heaviest Spend at the End•Moving In and Out of the “Hot Races”•Targeting “Trophy Races”

Fighting Over the Same Ground

•Heaviest Spend at the End•Moving In and Out of the “Hot Races”•Targeting “Trophy Races”

End Game For Political Ads

Personal, Negative & Plentiful Final Ad Push Could Go

National Unclear Role of the Groups Online Working to be a Bigger

Part of the End Game

At this time, we feel ad spending in the 2010 elections along with issue spending will be better than the 2008 & 2006 cycles, and there is greater upside at this point.


Numbers to Watch This Fall

•Last Day of Oktoberfest •How Many Democrat Strategists on Cable News Shows Predict The U.S. House is a “Lost Cause”• Status of the Bush Tax Cuts•Approval Ratings for the President vs. Tea Party •Poll Numbers in Senate & Governors’ Races •Late Fundraising Totals by Party

•Halloween•October Surprises? •Financial Markets•Final Unemployment Numbers •Consumer Confidence •Right Track/Wrong Track Numbers

•Last Day of Oktoberfest •How Many Democrat Strategists on Cable News Shows Predict The U.S. House is a “Lost Cause”• Status of the Bush Tax Cuts•Approval Ratings for the President vs. Tea Party •Poll Numbers in Senate & Governors’ Races •Late Fundraising Totals by Party

•Halloween•October Surprises? •Financial Markets•Final Unemployment Numbers •Consumer Confidence •Right Track/Wrong Track Numbers


How Many Of These People Are In Iowa on November 3, 2010!


2010 election update evan tracey president campaign media analysis group, a kantar media solution

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