aging trends and patterns in the united states and the world
DESCRIPTION
Argentum 2016 Senior Living Executive Conference concurrent session Original session date: Tuesday, May 10, 2016, 1:30 - 2:45 PM Speaker: Wan He, PhD, Technical Expert on Aging Research, U.S. Census BureauTRANSCRIPT
Aging Trends and Patterns:
World and United States
Wan He, Ph.D. U.S. Census Bureau
Presentation at Argentum Senior Executive Conference, May 10, 2016, Denver, CO
Any views expressed on statistical and methodological issues are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.
2
FINDINGS FROM CENSUS BUREAU PUBLICATIONS
An Aging World: 2015 (Issued 2016)
65+ in the United States: 2010 (Issued 2014)
Older Americans With a Disability: 2008-2012 (Issued 2014)
3
4
FOCUS OF THE PRESENTATION
• Global aging trends & patterns • Variations among world regions/countries
• Growth and geographic distribution of U.S.
older population
• Societal support burden
• Summary and discussion
Population Size & Proportion
5
World Total Population and Population Aged 65 and Over by Sex: 2015, 2030, and 2050
(Numbers in millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
Year Total population Population aged 65 and over Percentage aged 65 and over
of total
Both sexes Male Female
Both sexes Male Female
Both sexes Male Female
2015 7,253.3 3,652.0 3,601.3 617.1 274.9 342.2 8.5 7.5 9.5
2030 8,315.8 4,176.7 4,139.1 998.7 445.2 553.4 12.0 10.7 13.4
2050 9,376.4 4,681.7 4,694.7 1,565.8 698.5 867.3 16.7 14.9 18.5
6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Population Aged 65 and Over by World Region: 2015 to 2050 (In millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America/Oceania
7
6.6%
55.3%
21.0%
7.6%
9.5%
2015
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin Americaand theCaribbeanNorthernAmerica/Oceania
9.6%
62.3%
12.6%
8.9%
6.6%
2050
Percent Distribution of Population Aged 65 and Over by World Region: 2015 and 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
8
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
65+ All ages
China Japan
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
65+ All ages
China
Japan
Egypt
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
65+ All ages
China
Japan
Egypt
Germany
Australia
2015 2030 2050
China’s Older Population vs. Total Populations of Selected Countries
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
(In thousands)
9
The World’s 25 Oldest Countries: 2015 and 2050 (Percentage of population aged 65 and over)
Asia Europe
Northern America
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
2015 2050
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population (left scale) As percent of total population (right scale)
Population Aged 65 and Over in the United States: 1900 to 2050
Millions Percent
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses, 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.
11
Speed of Aging
12
18
23
25
21
26
45
53
69
73
85
115
9
11
12
17
16
13
27
20
26
40
42
South Korea (2000-2027)
China (2001-2035)
Japan (1970-2007)
Brazil (2012-2050)
Chile (1999-2041)
Poland (1966-2024)
Hungary (1941-2021)
United States (1944-2033)
Australia (1938-2037)
Sweden (1890-2015)
France (1865-2022)
From 7 percent to 14 percent From 14 percent to 21 percent
Number of Years for Percent Aged 65 and Older in Total Population to Triple: Selected Countries
157
Sources: Kinsella and Gist, 1995; U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base, 2014 National Population Projections.
125
99
80
58
42
38
37
34
27
89
13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
65 and over
Under 5
(In percent)
Young Children and Older People as a Percentage of Global Population: 1950 to 2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.
14
Causes of Population Aging
15
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base, unpublished lifetables.
Ten Countries With Highest Life Expectancy at Birth in 2015: At Birth, Age 65, and Age 80 by Sex, in 2015 and 2050
(In years)
16
Life Expectancy at Birth Life Expectancy at 65 Life Expectancy at 80
2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050 Both
sexes Male Female Both
sexes Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
Japan 84.7 81.4 88.3 91.6 88.4 95.0 20.0 25.2 25.0 30.6 9.4 12.6 12.6 16.8
Singapore 84.7 82.1 87.5 91.6 88.7 94.6 20.6 24.5 25.5 30.3 11.5 12.9 14.1 16.9
Macau 84.5 81.6 87.6 85.1 82.2 88.1 20.2 24.9 20.7 25.3 10.1 13.4 10.5 13.8
Hong Kong 82.9 80.2 85.8 84.4 81.6 87.4 18.9 23.1 20.1 24.6 8.5 10.9 9.8 12.8
Switzerland 82.5 80.2 84.9 84.2 81.6 87.0 19.0 22.4 20.1 24.3 8.4 10.4 9.7 12.6
Australia 82.2 79.7 84.7 84.1 81.4 86.9 19.0 22.5 20.1 24.3 8.9 11.0 9.9 12.8
Italy 82.1 79.5 84.9 84.1 81.3 87.0 18.6 22.4 20.0 24.3 8.7 10.7 9.8 12.7
Sweden 82.0 80.1 84.0 84.0 81.5 86.6 18.6 21.5 20.0 23.9 7.9 9.8 9.5 12.3
Canada 81.8 79.2 84.5 83.9 81.1 86.8 18.9 22.7 20.1 24.4 9.4 11.6 10.1 13.0
France 81.8 78.7 85.0 83.9 80.9 87.0 18.9 22.9 20.0 24.5 8.6 10.8 9.7 12.7
4.4
2.1
1.6
2.1 2.0 2.2
3.5
2.0
1.6 1.9
2.0 2.0
2.8
1.9 1.7 1.8
2.0 1.8
Africa Asia Europe Latin America andthe Caribbean
Northern America Oceania
2015 2030 2050
Total Fertility Rate by World Region: 2015, 2030, and 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
Replacement Level (2.1)
17
18
2015 2030 2050 Singapore 0.8 Singapore 1.0 Singapore 1.2 Macau 0.9 Macau 1.0 Macau 1.1 Taiwan 1.1 Taiwan 1.2 Taiwan 1.3 Hong Kong 1.2 Hong Kong 1.3 Hong Kong 1.4 Korea, South 1.3 Korea, South 1.4 Korea, South 1.5 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.5
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.7
Lithuania 1.3 Lithuania 1.5 Lithuania 1.7 Ukraine 1.3 Ukraine 1.4 Ukraine 1.6 Romania 1.3 Romania 1.5 Romania 1.7 Poland 1.3 Poland 1.5 Poland 1.7 China 1.6 China 1.6 China 1.7 India 2.5 India 2.2 India 2.1 United States 2.0 United States 2.0 United States 2.0
Ten Countries With Lowest Total Fertility Rate in 2015: 2015, 2030, and 2050
(In years)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
Population Age Structure
19
Population by Age and Sex in China: 2015 and 2050 (In millions)
2015 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
20
20 10 0 10 20
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84
85 and over
1970
Male Female
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84
85 and over
2010
Male Female
Baby Boom
Population by Age and Sex in the United States: 1970 and 2010 (In millions)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 and 2010 censuses.
21
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0 to 45 to 9
10 to 1415 to 1920 to 2425 to 2930 to 3435 to 3940 to 4445 to 4950 to 5455 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 7475 to 7980 to 84
85 and over
2050
Male Female
Baby Boom
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.
22
Population by Age and Sex in the United States: 2030 and 2050 (In millions)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
China India China India China India
65+15-640-14
2015 2030 2050
Population by Age Group for China and India: 2015, 2030, and 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
(In millions)
23
Societal Support Burden
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Youth dependency ratio
Older dependency ratio
Dependency Ratios for the World: 2015 to 2050
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Youth dependency ratio
Older dependency ratio
Dependency Ratios for the United States: 1980 to 2050
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses and 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.
26
Healthy Aging
27
28
-30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
RomaniaSlovakiaCroatiaPoland
DenmarkEstonia
United KingdomGreece
NetherlandsNorway
SloveniaSweden
GermanyAustria
PortugalFinlandFrance
HALE LE with activity limitations HALE LE with activity limitations
Source: European Commission, 2014 Eurostat.
Male Female
Life Expectancy (LE) and Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at Age 65 by Sex for Selected European Countries: 2012
(In years)
30.6 21.1
14.8 31.4 30.5
36.6 20.2
37.7 30.0
24.4
29.9
59.9 73.5
80.0 58.4 60.2
52.6 73.0
45.0 62.0
70.8
60.9
9.5 5.4
5.2 10.3 9.3
10.8 6.8
17.4 8.0
4.8
9.2
Not HispanicHispanic
AsianBlackWhite
FemaleMale
85 and over75 to 8465 to 74
Total
Household living alone Household living with others Group quarters
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year estimates, 2008-2012.
Living Arrangement of Population Aged 65 and Over With a Disability in the United States: 2008-2012
(In percent)
29
30
31
Summary and Discussion
• The world population is aging rapidly and the pace of aging will continue to accelerate in the next few decades.
• A distinct feature of global population aging is its uneven speed across regions and countries.
• Asia leads world regions in speed of aging and size of older population.
32
Summary and Discussion (cont.)
• The U.S. older population will almost double by 2050 although its aging pace is expected to be slower than some countries.
• The rapid reduction of fertility rates and extended life expectancy shifted the societal support ratio towards the older population.
• Older Americans with a disability vary in living arrangements and geographic distribution.
33
Aging is Reshaping Our World
34
35
36
37
www.census.gov
www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
38
This study is supported under an interagency agreement with the Division of Behavioral and Social Research, National Institute on Aging, U.S. National Institutes of Health.