ADVICE FOR THE WISE

October 2016

CONTENTS • From The CEO’s Desk

• Did You Know?

• Domestic Equity Outlook

• Domestic Debt Outlook

• Domestic Debt Strategy

• Global Equity Outlook

• Global Economy Update

• Global Debt Outlook

• Sector Outlook

• Real Estate Outlook

• Commodities

• Foreign Exchange

• What’s Trending.

• Disclaimer

FROM THE CEO’s DESK

Dear Investors,

Geo-political tensions have overshadowed all other headlines the last few days. The Indian Government’s strategy has been lauded by many though

the event triggered a minor correction in the Indian equity markets, bringing the indices down by 1.6%. Stock markets will be watchful this month for

any follow-up political developments. In case of an adverse political event, markets would react negatively. However, these corrections provide

investors a good opportunity to buy for the long term.

On the global economic front, both the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged during their respective policy meets. In her

policy statement, US Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that while the case for a rate hike had increased, she was not expecting it to happen before

December this year. Back home, the formation of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was completed with the government appointing

three independent members to it. All three members - Pammi Dua, Ravindra Dholakia and Chetan Ghate, come with excellent credentials and have

vast experience in their respective fields. From the RBI’s side, the MPC will feature the Governor, the Deputy Governor and the Executive Director in

charge of monetary policy. The creation of the MPC lays the foundation for a collaborative Government-RBI approach towards tackling inflation and

the panel is expected to bring value and transparency to future rate-setting decisions. The MPC will deliver its first policy review on 4th Oct, and going

by the pro-growth statements made by Governor Urjit Patel, the likelihood of a rate cut appears to be high.

The government’s decision to double the Provident Fund investment in equities from 5% to 10% of incremental flows in FY17 bodes well for the

Indian equity markets. Encouraged by the returns it has made from ETFs in the previous year, and considering the downward trend in bond

yields, the EPFO is seriously looking at equities to maintain the high returns that it provides to its subscribers. The decision translates into an

investment of Rs.13,000 crores in equity markets in FY17. Added to this, we continue to receive foreign flows from global investors, who see

value and believe in the India growth story. While valuations may appear to be stretched in certain stocks and sectors, the overall YTD Sensex

returns have been in the range of 8.5%. This is a fairly modest figure when compared to other emerging markets like Brazil and Russia which

have given YTD returns in excess of 30%. Being majorly commodity driven economies, these markets have seen a sharp pullback from the

lows of last year, corresponding with the recovery in oil prices and other commodities.

Corporates will start coming out with their second quarter results in a few days; we expect the results to be better than previous quarters and

this should give markets reason to move further upwards.

I hope you enjoy the Navratri festival and wish you and your families a Happy Dassera in advance!

DID YOU KNOW

Hong Kong leads world’s IPO

market in first nine month.

Germany is largest automobile

exporting country in the world

followed By japan.

The bond market has largely been

dominated by the United States, which

accounts for about 44% of the market.

DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK

As on 23rd

September 2016 1 Month Change

1 Year

Change

Equity Markets

BSE Sensex 28,668 2.42% 11.02%

CNX Nifty 8831 2.30% 12.56%

BSE Mid Cap 13331 2.99% 26.08%

BSE Small Cap 12,958 4.22% 19.11%

Equity markets continue to exhibit strength; building up on

positives and swiftly discounting negative news flows. However,

profit booking was witnessed at higher levels. The fall got

extended due to surgical strikes by the Indian Army across the

LoC. A knee jerk reaction was quickly negated as markets

realized that it was an Anti-Terror operations and not a military

one. Global scene too has slightly turned sober with ECB and

Fed officials showing their reluctance to extend stimulus. Larger

macro trend is also expected to be positive on back of increased

consumer spend that should happen with the disbursements of

7th Pay Commission. Festive season in coming months should

also drive spending and overall growth, benefiting sectors like

consumer durables, fmcg, financials and automobiles. Domestic

driven earnings and superior growth is likely to keep Indian

markets in a stronger position vis-à-vis global markets 80

90

100

110

120

130

140 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

DOMESTIC EQUITY OUTLOOK

GOVERNMENT POLICY

• The much awaited GST bill has been finally passed by both houses of Parliament and is likely to be ratified by half the Indian

state legislatures paving the way for its rollout for FY17-18. Railway budget is likely to be subsumed in the Union budget for

FY17-18 marking a historic departure from convention.

WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX

• India's wholesale prices index continued in positive territory at

3.74% for August, 2016 as compared to 3.55% for the month

of July.

• Food articles inflation increased in the month of August by

8.23%. Vegetables decreased by 0.17%. Inflation in the fuel

and power segment was 1.62%, while that of manufactured

products it was 2.42% in August.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

• CPI for the month of August eased at 5.05% as compared to

6.07% in July.

• Year-on-year, cost of food and beverages decreased 5.83

percent (7.96 percent in July).

• The food prices slowed by 5.91% compared to downwardly

revised 8.35% in the previous month.

Source – Tradingeconomics

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16

WPI CPI

IIP

• Industrial output in India contracted by 2.4 percent year-on-year in

July of 2016, against upwardly revised 2.1% in June 2016.

• Manufacturing decline 3.04%, as against increase 0.9% in June.

Meanwhile, the mining sector output increased by 0.8% in July

2016.

GDP

• India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter

of the current financial year slowed down to 7.1% versus 7.9% for

the previous quarter.

• Private consumption growth eased to 6.7 percent from 8.3 percent

in the previous quarter while government spending jumped 18.8

percent, accelerating from a 2.9 percent growth in Q1. Gross fixed

capital formation shrank at a faster 3.1 percent, following a 1.9

percent contraction in the previous period.

Source – Tradingeconomics

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

GDP

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jul 15

Aug 15

Sep 15

Oct 15

Nov 15

Dec 15

Jan 16

Feb 16

Mar 16

Apr 16

May 16

Jun 16

Jul 16

IIP

DOMESTIC DEBT OUTLOOK

The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 6.96% which is 16 bps

lower than the last months close of 7.12%

About half of the 113-billion rupee ($1.7 billion) inflow that

Indian bonds have garnered this quarter followed Patel’s

promotion. The 52-year old former RBI deputy governor had

established his inflation-fighting credentials by spearheading a

report that led the government to adopt the nation’s first formal

consumer-price target last month.

As on 23rd

September 2016

1 Month

Change 1 Year Change

Debt Markets

10-Yr G-Sec-

Yield 6.96 (13bps) (67bps)

Fixed Deposit 7.25 0bps (75bps)

Source – Reuters

6.80 7.00 7.20 7.40 7.60 7.80 8.00 8.20 8.40 8.60 8.80 G-Sec

10 YR Gsec Yield 5 YR Gsec Yield 15 YR Gsec Yield

0

50

100

150

200

250

AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+

Corporate Bond Spreads

5 Years 10 Years 15 Years

DOMESTIC DEBT STRATEGY

SHORT TERM DEBT

Investors who have a low appetite for interest rate volatility and seeking accrual returns with moderate duration can

look at short term debt funds with the time horizon of 1 year to 2 years. Even though, most of the short term fund’s

YTMs have fallen to sub-8%, our recommended short term debt funds still have high YTMs (8%-10%) providing

interesting investment opportunities.

CORPORATE BOND FUNDS

The macro economic outlook along with corporate profitability seems to be improving. We remain positive on the

credit outlook and look for opportunities in the credit space. The corporate bond market segment continues to be

attractive over the medium to long term. The yields are at elevated levels and interest rate outlook seems favorable.

The current scenario offers the potential opportunity to lock in higher accruals, with the expectation that these levels of

yields may not sustain over the short to medium term. With credit easing, there are chances that the companies’ rating

will be upgraded that would further cause a rally in bonds, which in turn will benefit corporate bond funds.

DYNAMIC BOND FUNDS As RBI has reduced the key policy rates, dynamic bond funds have benefited a lot as most of them have a mix of gilt and

long term bonds in their portfolio. Going ahead, we expect RBI to further reduce key policy rates only after studying the

macro-economic data such as inflation, movement in crude oil prices and so on. Investors who don’t want to time the

market and who can depend on fund managers to take view on interest rates can look at dynamic bond funds.

LONG TERM DEBT FUNDS

As RBI has little room left for further rate cuts, we expect Indian Debt Market to factor the same. Since the US Fed rate

hike is expected in the medium term, we expect there will be very little juice left in staying invested in long term debt

funds. Investors should start exiting their investments in Gilt Funds and Long Term Income Funds and go for accrual

based short to medium term debt funds.

GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK

As on 23rd

September2016

1 Month

Change

1 Year

Change

Equity Markets

MSCI World 1729 -0.08% 8.97%

Hang Seng 23686 3.82% 12.28%

S&P 500 2173 -0.10% 12.48%

Nikkei 16754 1.20% -4.65%

GLOBAL INDICES

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140 MSCI World Hang Seng S&P 500 Nikkei

GLOBAL EQUITY OUTLOOK

US Fed once again kept the key interest rates on hold at its latest policy meeting. However, improving macros and support from key members

indicate a rate hike by December. Recent comments from the Fed and ECB officials indicate that global central banks would be less

accommodative compared to earlier times.

GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE

UNITED STATES U.S. factories ramped up activity in September, shaking off a one-month contraction in a sign America

was resisting the downward pull of the sluggish global economy, national factory activity rose to 51.5 from

49.4 the prior month

U.S. job market firming; tight inventories constraining housing.The number of Americans filing for

unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to a two-month low, pointing to labor market strength

that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by December.

JAPAN

Japan's core consumer prices fell in the year to August, a sixth straight month of declines and a daunting

challenge for the Bank of Japan's relaunched stimulus campaign. Household spending fell 4.6 percent

year-on-year in the month, considerably exceeding the 2.5 percent drop expected by economists, and

highlighting the weakness in private consumption which makes up roughly two-thirds of the economy.

Fed, BOJ add shine to risk-parity strategy The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan's actions have given a

second wind to an alternative investment strategy that relies on cheap money and low market volatility to

produce outsized returns.

Source – Reuters

GLOBAL ECONOMY UPDATE

EUROPE European Central Bank interest rates are probably close to the bottom, even though the bank had hoped

the euro zone economy would respond better to its stimulus measures, With ECB rates now well into

negative territory, the potential for detrimental side effects are increasing as they cut into banking

profitability and raise the risk of asset bubbles and market distortions two top policymakers said.

This month as growth paths diverged and firms stopped discounting for the first time in a year, Markit's

composite survey showed a big split between buoyant manufacturers and a struggling service sector, and

a similar divide in growth rates among members of the currency union: French business activity hit a 15-

month high, while Germany's private sector growth slowed to a 16-month low.

EMERGING

ECONOMIES

China's business people reported better operational conditions for the third quarter of 2016 and were more

confident with the broader economy, According to the central bank. The business index grew to 50.3

percent from 48.3 percent in the second quarter and the profitability index rose to 54.7 percent from 52.7

percent, according to a survey by the People's Bank of China.

Indian factory activity cooled in September on slowing growth in new orders and production and as

manufacturers charged slightly higher prices, although muted inflation should give the central bank room

to ease policy further, a survey showed..

Source – Reuters

GLOBAL DEBT OUTLOOK

• China’s September foreign exchange reserve data will be scrutinized

for signs of a significant uptick in capital outflow and insights into the

central bank’s strategy. Expectations are that forex reserves won’t

change much after a larger-than-expected but still modest $15.9 billion

drop in August, the second consecutive monthly decline.

• India’s foreign exchange reserves increased $1.17 billion to reach

$370.8 billion in September 23 on account of rise in foreign currency

assets, according to Reserve Bank of India data.

• China’s Yuan Just Joined An Elite Club Of International Monetary Fund

Reserve Currencies, milestone for the government’s campaign for

recognition as a global economic power.

Ratings Country 10 Yr G-Sec Yield 1 Month

Change

AAA

Germany -0.10% (4 bps)

Hong Kong 1.01% 4 bps

Sweden 0.18% 9 bps

Switzerland -0.55% (8 bps)

AA+ USA 1.62% 3 bps

AA-

China 2.74% (8 bps)

Japan -0.07% (2 bps)

Source – Reuters

SECTOR OUTLOOK

SECTOR OUTLOOK

SECTOR STANCE REMARKS

Automobiles

Passenger vehicles and CVs will continue to outperform two-wheeler segment. Tractors to benefit on account of base

effect and expected normal monsoons.

Auto-ancillaries expected to do well due to revival of demand and stable global markets.

BFSI Private sector banks continue to deliver earnings in line with expectations. However, PSBs delivering poor numbers on

higher slippages and lower credit growth. We expect this trend to continue for next few quarters.

FMCG

We prefer “discretionary consumption” theme within FMCG. Key beneficiaries such as durables and branded garments,

as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. A bounce in

raw materials could put pressure on margins. Expect uptick in volumes post monsoons.

E&C Order inflows expected to improve as spending and capital expenditure likely to move up on economic recovery.

Moreover, sluggish execution and weak macros create a challenging environment.

SECTOR OUTLOOK

SECTOR STANCE REMARKS

Cement Cement volumes and realizations saw uptick in South region. Early signs of recovery, specifically hopes of bounce back

in North and West region due to pick up in infrastructure. Cost benefits would continue to drive earnings.

IT/ITES Positive impact would be due to currency volatility which would be offset by the Negative impact from the slower volume

growth in the EU regions

Power Utilities Lack of fuel linkages , poor SEB health, adverse CERC guidelines have compromised the ROE’s leading to de-rating in

near term. Reform initiatives through UDAY can improve sector prospects in long run.

Healthcare Regulatory risks have become more evident and frequent with FDA inspections for Pharma companies. US growth

continues to be muted for large caps due to lower approvals and regulatory issues.

SECTOR OUTLOOK

SECTOR STANCE REMARKS

Energy Crude prices at 6 month high though at substantially lower on annual basis. Nil subsidy in FY16 for OMC’s is a positive.

Trend expected to continue.

Telecom Regulatory uncertainties have come down. However, aggressive bids for spectrum has revived fears of sub-optimal

returns on capital. Further launch of R-Jio would lead to price disruption thereby impacting the entire sector

Metals Lower global growth and Chinese slowdown has kept the growth subdued. Some recovery seen over past few months

with Chinese economy stabilizing. Long term prospects continue to remain weak.

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

The Central Government has eased FDI norms and lifted

restrictions on ticket size, Project size and stage of entry

of capital thus, paving way for virtually any project to

receive Foreign equity funds. Residential Prices have

remained stagnant across Tier I markets. All Tier I

markets have continued to witness moderate decrease in

demand with sluggish market sentiments.

With improvements in infrastructure across cities like

Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,

Nagpur, Patna and Cochin and quality products being

offered the end users /investors are being spoilt for

choice. The Demand drivers have increased

nuclearization, rising disposable incomes and easier

availability of credit.

RESIDENTIAL Tier I Tier II

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

Bangalore NCR and Hyderabad have seen strong

demand in the commercial segment and even Mumbai

has picked up in the later half of the year. The capital

values have also been on rise in major markets except in

NCR where values have remained stable. Absorption

volumes have been surpassing new completions

consistently, since H1 2014, as a result of which, the

vacancy levels in India have been dwindling.

Low unit sizes have played an important role in

maintaining the absorption levels in these markets. Lease

rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at

their current levels in the commercial asset class.

COMMERCIAL Tier I Tier II

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

In Mumbai demand for space in successful malls

continued to be on the rise and categories such as F&B,

premium apparel and entertainment dominated leasing

activity. International brands were seen increasing their

footprints . Hyderabad has seen a steady growth in

demand while markets like NCR, Bangalore and Chennai

remained stagnant.

The Mall concept is new to Tier II cities and High Street

retail is still popular. Anecdotal evidence suggests that

rentals have remained stagnant in this space.

RETAIL Tier I Tier II

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

Fringe areas with improving connectivity to Metro cities

and other top 8 to 10 cities in India have seen interest in

purchase of Plotted / Villa developments due to lower

ticket size and better marketing by developers

/aggregators. There is an uptick in demand for

warehousing with the growth of E commerce.

Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established

growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation

due to low investment base in such areas.

LAND Tier I Tier II

COMMODITIES

GOLD

Gold has seen a smart appreciation in this calendar year. Global

uncertainties have pushed international gold prices beyond $1300.

Any risk aversion due to macro or geo-political news flows could

strengthen its prices. Near term range remains $1300-1400.

• As on 23rd September, 2016 : 31,316 per 10gm

• 1 month change : 0.80%

• 1 year change : 18.51%

24000

26000

28000

30000

32000 Gold

COMMODITIES

CRUDE OIL

Crude prices have stabilized between $40- $50 per barrel.

Crude along with Gold continues be the prime indicator of

global risk appetite. A breakout from current range is expected

soon.

• As on 23rd September, 2016 : $46.71 per bbl

• 1 month change : -1.80%

• 1 year change : -1.20%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Crude

Currency As on 23rd

September 2015 1 Month Change 1 Year Change

USD/INR 66.65 -0.72% -0.83%

GBP/INR 86.92 -1.66% 16.07%

Euro/INR 74.67 -1.50% -0.95%

Yen/INR 66.08 -1.23% -16.65%

USD/Euro 0.89 0.61% -0.61%

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

• The World Bank issued 500 million SDR units ($698

million) of three-year notes in China’s interbank market this

week, the first sale of debt in the International Monetary

Fund’s alternative reserve assets since the 1980s.

• The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) bragged the

Lion City remains the largest foreign exchange centre in

the Asia-Pacific region and the third largest globally after

London and New York. MAS revealed that the average

daily trading volume of Singapore’s forex market swelled

35% to US$517 billion in April 2016 from US$383 billion in

the same month three years ago.

• The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.3

billion to $367.2 billion in the week to August 26 on account

of increase in foreign currency assets.

-0.72%

-1.66% -1.50%

-1.23%

-2.00%

-1.60%

-1.20%

-0.80%

-0.40%

0.00%

USD GBP EURO YEN

WHAT’S TRENDING

“Telecom Revolution ?”

Profile

• Reliance Industries is launching its fourth generation wireless broadband service under the brand name, Jio. The service is not just about offering

wireless telephony service. This fourth generation (4G) LTE service will offer significantly faster data speeds.

• Fourth generation technology standards allow to take advantage of more bandwidth and better output. So what has been done traditionally through

wired applications can be now done on wireless devices at an equal speed. So consumers with 4G devices can access high-speed data, high-

definition voice and do real-time video conferencing. The network also offers superior latency for gaming.

• Reliance Jio launch At one point, it seemed to be the only thing Indians were talking about. The promise of fast, affordable Internet access really

seems to have struck a chord with the average citizen. Of course, a lot of this has to do with the fact that broadband speeds and tariffs in India

remain amongst the worst in the APAC region, and any improvement would be welcome, but you cannot deny that a lot of the excitement is also due

to how better access to high-speed mobile data services could revolutionise how we live and work.

• In 2015, a study conducted by the Boston Consulting Group threw up some interesting perspectives on how mobile technologies have an impact on

our economy. Conducted in six countries, including India, the study found a quarter of SMEs that use mobile tech in a big way can expect double the

revenue growth and job creation at 8 times the rate of their peers.

• Jio's network and strategy revolves around data consumption, and that's what makes this exciting for the SME sector. As faster, cheaper data

connections become available, common sense suggests we can expect every sector of the economy to take advantage of this.

• Benefit we can expect to see is that of greater operational efficiency. Faster speeds and cheaper devices will enable a shift towards new tools and

services tailor-made for SMEs.

Source – www.rbi.org.in, www.wikipedia.com, www.businessstandard.com

WHAT’S TRENDING

Jio’s Impact

• Reliance Jio's aggressive pricing could force other telecom firms to cut voice and data tariffs. The price war may strain finances of most telecom

operators, who are already laden with high debt.

• As access improves, as lower prices allow greater adoption, and as faster speeds allow for usage in ways we wouldn't have imagined till now, our

love affair with the Internet is bound to grow.

The Problems With Reliance’s Jio

• The Reliance Jio launch has aroused huge interest among subscribers. However, after the launch, a number of issues related to the new services

have surfaced which could pose a challenge.

• Reliance Jio has been stuck in a dispute with incumbent operators over points of interconnectivity. Jio has accused Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea

Cellular of providing insufficient points of interconnectivity leading to call drop.

• With addition of users to the Jio network, the speed of Jio's 4G data services has come down drastically after September 5. Now, the internet speed

has come down to 6-10 Mbps from 50Mbps during the launch stage.

• The Jio TV app is subjected to frequent crashes and has a long boot-time, which is also the case with most apps released by Jio.

• All those who don't have VOLTE technology-supported phones cannot make voice calls without the use of Jio4G Voice app. This one drawback

makes the lucrative free voice-calling feature obsolete for most new consumers.

Source – www.Businesstoday.com

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