ADVICE for the WISE

Newsletter – SEPTEMBER 2012

2

Economic Update 4

Equity Outlook 8

Debt Outlook 11

Forex 13

Commodities 14

Index Page No.

Contents

Real Estate 15

From the Desk of the CIO…

“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.18”

Dear Investor,

September is likely to be a decisive month as regards investor sentiment as

well as broad equity market direction. This is owing to the three monetary

policy “events” – RBI monetary policy announcement, US Fed stand on QE-

3 and ECB’s monetary policy meeting. Over last few weeks, investors

globally have come to hope positive outcomes from the second and third

while the Indian investors have started to assume no change in RBI’s

hawkish stance as regards the first.

We expect these three “events” to have very different degrees of impact

on Indian equity and debt markets. The RBI policy announcement is likely

to be least influential – largely owing the widespread expectation of no

repo rate cut. ECB policy is likely to somewhat more influential – to the

extent that it is widely believed to be at least incrementally useful in

resolving the sovereign debt crisis in Eurozone. We expect a mildly positive

influence on Indian equity markets from the ECB meeting. The Fed

announcement of QE-3, if it does happen, is likely to be a massive

sentiment and liquidity boost to all risk assets including Indian equities.

Also, owing to at least some anticipation having already been built into

global investors’ calculation as regards this, a decisive lack of anything like a

QE would also lead to a mild dampening of sentiment, leading potentially

to a mild correction. As we highlighted in the last month’s newsletter, we

do not expect a QE announcement to be very likely.

A very positive development in recent weeks has been a finance ministry-

driven top-down “directed” transmission of earlier repo rate cuts made by

RBI into lower cost of loans extended by banks. This helps to correct the

unusual divergence which had developed between some monetary easing

– which RBI did do earlier this year – and almost no change in cost of credit

for the real economy – which was because banks held their base rates

nearly unchanged through this monetary easing. Now that the finance

ministry has forced some of the monetary easing into the banking system,

we may expect some delayed positive influence on infrastructure spending

and automobile sales, and potentially end-user driven real estate

transactions. That might help boost the sagging growth momentum.

This does open up a very interesting debate though – if banks are reluctant

to lend at lower interest rates, that was probably because their credit

growth was satisfactory at the earlier lending rates. This is also borne out

by the deposit and credit growth numbers through last few months. If that

is the case, it remains to be seen if the lower cost of credit brought about

by finance ministry intervention would increase inflationary pressure. If so,

RBI’s cautious stance on interest rates would not be incorrect.

4

As on 31st Aug 2012

Change over last month

Change over last year

Equity Markets

BSE Sensex 17429 1.1% 4.5%

S&P Nifty 5258 0.6% 5.1%

S&P 500 1406 2.0% 16.0%

Nikkei 225 8839 1.7% (1.3%)

Debt Markets

10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.24% (1 bps) (8 bps)

Call Markets 7.95% (8 bps) (7 bps)

Fixed Deposit* 9.00% 0 bps (25 bps)

Commodity Markets

RICI Index 3813 4.8% (5.2%)

Gold (`/10gm) 30735 2.8% 14.8%

Crude Oil ($/bbl) 112.6 6.3% (2.6%)

Forex

Markets

Rupee/Dollar 55.7 0.2% (17.4%)

Yen/Dollar 78.6 (0.4%) (2.4%)

Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets

10 yr Gsec

Gold

• Indicates SBI one-year FD •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225

22000

24000

26000

28000

30000

32000

40

45

50

55

60

`/$

6.80

7.30

7.80

8.30

8.80

9.30

5

US

Europe

Japan

Emerging economies

• Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.7% annual rate in the second quarter. Industrial production

increased 0.6% in July after a 0.1% gain in June, offering more hope the economy was improving after

growth slowed in the second quarter

• The US unemployment rate increased to 8.3% in month of July, slightly higher than 8.2% in June. Gross

domestic product expanded at a 1.5% annual rate between April and June, the weakest pace of growth

since the third quarter of 2011.

• Markit's final PMI was 45.1, above July's three-year low of 44.0. However, the figure was the 13th month

in a row that it was below the 50 mark that indicates growth. The PMI has now signalled contraction for

12 consecutive months.

• The 17-nation euro zone contracted by 0.2% on the quarter.

• Euro zone inflation held steady at 2.4% in July - just above the ECB's target of close to but below 2%.

Economy Update - Global

• The Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted

47.7 in August from 47.9 in July. Japanese manufacturing production declined for a Third successive

month in August, and at an accelerated rate.

• The inflation rate in Japan was recorded at -0.40% in July of 2012, which was at -0.2% in the month of

June 2012.

• The HSBC Flash China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) - a preliminary read-out that

provides an early peek at data for August - fell to 47.8 this month, its lowest level since November and

well down from July's final figure of 49.3.

• India's wholesale price index (WPI) Inflation dropped to 6.87% in July from 7.25% in June as domestic

petrol and vegetable prices fell in July & consumer price inflation slowed slightly in July to 9.86% lower

than 10.02% in June.

6

Economy Outlook - Domestic

• India's economic growth fell below the psychologically

significant 6% level for the Second consecutive time in last 3

years, signalling that country’s slowdown is deepening and

affecting all sectors of the economy. GDP marginally grew by 2

bps when compared with the Last quarter of FY 12 reading of

5.3%. Sharp falls in the manufacturing & Agriculture sectors

have led to India’s GDP growing only at 5.5% as compared to

7.7% growth a year earlier.

• While the deceleration in the overall economy is apparent

across all industry groups, the construction sector has seen a

sharp year-on-year growth of 10.9% in the June quarter, which

is a five-year high. This has also driven demand for steel and

cement. The activities which gained substantially in this quarter

compared to a year-ago were ‘Financing, insurance, real estate

and business services’ at 10.84% and ‘Community, social

and personal services’ at 7.92%.

GDP growth

• India's industrial output fell for the third time in four months in

June. India's industrial production has contracted 1.8% during June

2012 compared with 2.5% growth in May 2012. The cumulative

growth for the period April‐June 2012‐13 stood at ‐0.1% against

6.9% recorded in the corresponding period of the previous yea

r. IIP grew by 8.8% a year earlier in June 2011. The May’12 IIP has

been revised to 2.5% from earlier estimate of 2.4%.

• This was mainly due to sharp fall of 27.9% in capital goods & a

slump in manufacturing. Manufacturing, which constitutes about

76% of industrial production, shrank an annual 3.2% from a year

earlier. 14 out of the 22 industry groups have reported positive

growth on year-on-year basis.

• Mining reported a growth of 0.6% after prolonged contraction

for a year on the back of series of bans in various states

following illegal mining activities. Electricity surprisingly rose by

8.80% y-o-y from 5.90% y-o-y in the previous month.

IIP

8.4 8.3

7.8 7.7

6.9

6.1

5.3 5.5

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1)

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Jun

11

Jun

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Jul 1

1

Au

g 11

Au

g 11

Sep

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Oct

11

No

v 11

No

v 11

No

v 11

Dec

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Jan

12

Feb

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Mar

12

Ap

r 12

Ap

r 12

May

12

May

12

May

12

Economic Outlook - Domestic

As on 27th July 2012, Bank credits grew by 17.4% on a Y-o-Y basis which is 189 Bps lower than the growth witnessed in July 2011 (i.e. 19.3%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 13.9%, viz-a viz a growth of 18.1% in July 2011.

Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet stronger before March 31, and meet their targets, and so there was a spurt in short-term deposits and advances, post that there has been a decline in both the months.

On 31st July 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the key policy rates unchanged and cut the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) by 100 bps to 23%, as the primary focus of policy remained on inflation control in order to secure a sustainable growth path over the medium-term

The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI (Wholesale Price Index), stood at 6.87% for the month of July, 2012 as compared to 7.25% for the previous month and 9.36% during the corresponding month of the previous year.

The Food inflation, which plays a major role in influencing the headline number, grew at 10.06% in July against 10.81% in June. The index for ‘Food Articles’ group rose by 1.4% to 212.2 from 209.2 for the previous month due to higher prices of certain food items. the Core inflation is estimated to have inched up to 5.44% from 4.9% in June.

India's new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-India General Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) declined slightly to 9.86% in July 2012. Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the inflation for June was revised downwards to 9.93% from the provisional estimate of 10.02%

Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs

7 * End of period figures

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

23.0%

25.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

Wholesale Price Index

8

Equity Outlook

Global equity markets continued to be positively biased in anticipation of further monetary easing from European central bank and US

Fed. In the month of August, FIIs brought over Rs. 8,000 crores in Indian Equity Markets taking the calendar year till date (CYTD) number

to 65000 crores. Nifty crossed the 5,400 mark but couldn’t sustain it because of profit booking. Markets await positive policy action and

reforms announcements by the central government.

After a very turbulent CY11 in which nifty corrected 24%, Indian equity markets have bounced back this year with a 14% return on CYTD

basis. In last six months, sectors like consumer, healthcare and private sector banking have done quite well with robust earnings growth

and double digit stock price gains.

India's GDP for first quarter grew by 5.5% which was in line with market expectations, driven by a rebound in construction and financial

services. We believe that growth might have bottomed out this quarter. Monsoon rains continued to pick up momentum with the

seasonal deficit narrowing to 12% and agricultural growth for the year should moderate only slightly.

With Indian government expected to raise petrol and diesel prices very soon, pressure on fiscal side should ease off. This should also

give some comfort to RBI when it carries out the mid-quarterly monetary policy review on 17th September. We are expecting a 25bps

cut in repo rate in this policy. As interest rates come down, corporate investment cycle will revive leading to a bounce back in economic

growth.

The inflation number for the month of July came in at 6.9%. We expect inflation to stay around 7% for this fiscal thus giving the

necessary comfort to RBI to carry out the required monetary easing

We believe that macro-economic environment should stabilize going forward before growth starts trending up by year end. While

headlines remain weak, markets continue to trade at attractive valuations with the worst behind us. We believe cautiousness in the near

term should be used to accumulate quality stocks with a slightly longer-term view

9

Sector View

Sector Stance Remarks

Healthcare Overweight

We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in

generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the

developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian

Pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and

CRAMS space

BFSI Overweight

.The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to

increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better

management quality and higher balance sheet discipline

FMCG Overweight

We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as

the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable

incomes.

Telecom Neutral

The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability

levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly

and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.

E&C Neutral

The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the

sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive

on this space.

10

Sector View

Sector Stance Remarks

Automobiles Neutral Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on

two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.

Cement Neutral Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong

view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.

Power Utilities Neutral We like the regulated return Characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in

earnings and decent return on capital.

Energy Underweight We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying

economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.

Metals Underweight Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth

in China and developed parts of the world.

IT/ITES Underweight With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might slow

down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive intensity.

12

Debt Outlook

• The 10-year benchmark G-sec yield fell marginally by 1 bps to 8.24%, during the month August 2012.

• In G-sec auction, RBI auctioned 4 G-Sec (Rs. 16,000 cr) -namely -8.19% GS 2020 (Rs. 4000 cr), 8.33% GS 2026 (Rs. 7000 cr),

8.28% GS 2032 (Rs, 2000 cr) and 8.83% GS 2041 (Rs. 2000 cr) with cut-off yield of 8.34%, 8.40%, 8.58% and 8.62%

respectively.

• The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond spread marginally decreased to 100 Bps (31st August 2012) from 102 bps

(31st July 2012). The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9.24% on 31st August 2012.

10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve

(%)

(%)

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

0.0

0

.8

1.6

2

.4

3.2

4

.0

4.9

5

.7

6.5

7

.3

8.1

8

.9

9.7

1

0.5

1

1.3

1

2.1

1

2.9

1

3.7

1

4.5

1

5.3

1

6.1

1

6.9

1

7.7

1

8.5

1

9.4

6.80

7.30

7.80

8.30

8.80

9.30

Debt Strategy

Outlook Category Details

Long Tenure Debt

With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps SLR cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, and signals passive cuts in near future, we would recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24 months in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the same. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.

Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.

13

With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps SLR cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend investment in short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing interesting investment opportunities.

Short Tenure Debt

Credit

14

Forex

• INR has appreciated against USD & Japanese Yen, whereas it witnessed a depreciation against GBP & Euro. INR appreciated by 0.15%, in Aug (Appreciated by 0.9% in July 2012) against the US Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it has depreciated by 4.4%

• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the month with an appreciation.

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been taking a series of steps to rein in the currency’s loss, including curbing banks’ abilities to speculate in the currency market since last two months. The central bank sold at least $20 billion to stabilize the currency.

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data

• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.

• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.

-10000

40000

90000

140000

FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)

Capital Account Balance

• Exports during July, 2012 were valued at US $ 22.44 bn which was 14.80% lower than the level of US $ 26.34 bn during July, 2011. Imports during July, 2012 were valued at US $ 37.94 Bn representing a negative growth of 7.61% over the level of imports valued at US $ 41.06 Bn in July, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $15.49 Bn.

0.15%

-0.32%

-1.73%

0.44%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

USD GBP EURO YEN

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)

15

Commodities

Precious

Metals

Oil & Gas

As the central bankers across the world pumping liquidity into the system, oil prices are unlikely to see any major fall. Combined with this is the refinery shutdowns due to hurricane Issac triggering a reduction in supplies. Oil prices are likely to be firmer after an industry report showed stockpiles shrank to the lowest in more than five months in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer. Expect prices to move higher.

Crude

Gold

We continue to maintain our bullish stance on gold. The bond purchase program of ECB is viewed as a big positive steps supporting prices amid the German Constitutional Court verdict awaited on the status of ESM. This shall bound to impact the currency markets. Having said that, gold is entering into its seasonally best quarter and one can expect only prices to go north.

24000

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Real Estate Outlook - I

15

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Residential

With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence

coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and

shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have

seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user

transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,

Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2

quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,

the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these

markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a

good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well

under 1500 sqft)

Prices surged since last quarter, factors being

largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring

first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,

Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh

highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft

range

Commercial/IT

Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends

getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai

still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small

office spaces from investors

Very less benchmarks available but the rents are

growing 8-10% every year for commercial

properties in Tier-II cities

Real Estate Outlook - II

16

Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Retail

Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have

been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well

awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major

cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied

and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in

prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up

of FDI.

Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated

beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a

re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial

offices, call centers, super-market etc

Land

30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming

expensive month on month. Interest from investors has

drawn lot of attention in well connected areas.

Land has given better appreciation in these markets than

Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land

property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming

areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land

valuable

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Open Architecture – Widest array of products

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We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-S Service Promise” :

• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products

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Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like all banks do.

Honest, unbiased advise

18

A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.

Pedigreed Senior Management Team

19

Disclaimer

The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group

companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the

accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on

their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any

information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of

Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to

time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that

they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other

securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further

restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their

respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new

Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments

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20

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