ADVICE for the WISE

Newsletter – JUNE 2012

2

Economic Update 4

Equity Outlook 8

Debt Outlook 11

Forex 13

Commodities 14

Index Page No.

Contents

Real Estate 15

From the Desk of the CIO…

“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.18”

Dear Investor,

The domestic investors in Indian equities markets can use the approach

used by several companies in the developed markets when their stock

prices are unusually depressed for reasons beyond their control. Such

companies routinely buy back their stock with spare cash. They believe

that the stock prices do not reflect the fundamental value of their

company and use the opportunity to buy back the cheaply available stock.

As global investors shun India with several doubts regarding the India

growth story coupled with their own domestic fears of a financial

meltdown, Indian investors would do well to use this opportunity to

increase their holding of Indian equities. Just as the beaten down mid-cap

stock recovers once normalcy returns, the equities valuations in a country

such as India will tend to recover quite sharply once the sentiment

stabilizes globally.

This is not to trivialize the challenges facing the India growth story since

there are quite a few. However we believe that in falling markets investors

often look for confirmatory negative evidence to their beliefs. Hence even

data of relatively limited relevance becomes suddenly the centre of

attention if it happens to confirm the existing pessimistic beliefs. The price

volatility hence tends to be significantly higher than volatility of earnings,

as everyone tries to makes sure that she is not without the chair when the

proverbial music stops. The mirror image of this behavior occurs in the

bullish markets when most analysts spend better part of their energy on

justifying already high valuations by projecting good recent past into an

infinite future.

We believe that this tendency of majority to over-react to negative and

positive news alike can be exploited rather systematically by having the

gumption to buy into falling markets. The flipside is of course that

attractive markets get even more attractive before they get fairly valued

again. One who has the patience to ignore the noise on the way will tend

to make the most of the turbulence.

In the short term the events in Europe will dominate the investor

sentiment globally. We have seen mood swings of epic proportion in

recent weeks. Eurobonds, political union, fiscal compact, Spanish banks on

the eastern side of Atlantic and a renewed talk of QE-III on the western

side of it have kept investors guessing regarding the present times are

“risk-on” or “risk-off”. We continue to believe that Euro will continue to

survive even if and when Greece exits it. The talk of Lehman-like meltdown

underestimates the degree of preparedness around the world on another

Greek default (after the “voluntary” write-down last year). The battle of

wits between the stronger Euro-area countries including Germany and the

weaker section (increasingly led by France) is more of a poker game than a

shoot-out. The stronger countries will foot a large part of the bill for

further fiscal integration (through Eurobonds, debt mutualization etc) and

they want to extract a good price for it – potentially through a higher say

in the future United States of Europe. As we maintained earlier, in absence

of an unforeseen financial accident, Euro is unlikely to break up. The path

to the crisis resolution is very bumpy however.

Ignore all news (noise!) till it settles down or actively buy when others sell

are the only two sensible strategies through such turbulence.

4

As on 31st May 2012

Change over last month

Change over last year

Equity Markets

BSE Sensex 16219 (6.4%) (12.3%)

S&P Nifty 4924 (6.2%) (11.4%)

S&P 500 1310 (6.3%) (2.6%)

Nikkei 225 8542 (10.3%) (11.9%)

Debt Markets

10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.38% (30 bps) (3 bps)

Call Markets 8.09% (30 bps) 76 bps

Fixed Deposit* 9.00% 0 bps 75 bps

Commodity Markets

RICI Index 3354 (11.5%) (19.7%)

Gold (`/10gm) 29183 0.2% 29.7%

Crude Oil ($/bbl) 103.85 (12.5%) (11.4%)

Forex

Markets

Rupee/Dollar 56.42 (6.9%) (20.2%)

Yen/Dollar 79.25 1.2% 2.0%

Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets

10 yr Gsec

Gold

* Indicates SBI one-year FD

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225

6.80

7.30

7.80

8.30

8.80

9.30

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

`/$ `/$

5

US

Europe

Japan

Emerging economies

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined slightly in April, fell further in

May. The Index now stands at 64.9 (1985=100), down from 68.7 in April.

• The jobless rate rose to 8.2% in May from 8.1% in April, although the increase reflected more people

entering the labour force to look for work, a possible sign of growing confidence.

• The seasonally adjusted Markit Euro zone Manufacturing PMI fell to a near three-year low of 45.1 in May

2012, down from 45.9 in April 2012

• Unemployment in the euro zone rose to a 15-year high of 10.9% in March 2012, driven by lay-offs in Italy

and Spain, and economists said worse was to come as the impact of the debt crisis extracts an ever

greater toll.

Economy Update - Global

• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 50.7 in May’12. The index remained above the 50

threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the sixth consecutive month, but output,

domestic new orders and export orders all slowed.

• Japan's economy grew an annualized 4.1% in the January-March 2012 quarter as resurgent domestic

demand and government spending helped fuel recovery from last year's natural disasters and supply

chain disruptions that suppressed growth.

• The seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for India, posted 55.3 in May 2012, up from

53.8 in April 2012. India's annual economic growth rate slumped in the January-March quarter to a nine-

year low of 5.3% dragged down by a moderation in services and consumption and contraction in the

manufacturing sector.

• China’s HSBC PMI registered 48.4 in May 2012, down slightly from 49.3 in April, signalling a seventh

successive month-on-month worsening of Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions.

6

Economy Outlook - Domestic

• India's economic growth fell below the psychologically

significant 6% level for the first time in last 3 years, signalling

that country’s slowdown is deepening and affecting all sectors

of the economy. Sharp falls in the manufacturing & Agriculture

sectors have led to India’s GDP growing only at 5.3% as

compared to 7.8% growth a year earlier.

• The economy has slowed in the face of weaker external

demand, rising global uncertainty, elevated interest rates, high

inflation, a stagnant government and declining business

confidence. With the economy battling multiple

macroeconomic problems, the Reserve Bank of India is under

pressure to both curtail inflation and reduce key interest rates

to boost the investment climate in the economy.

GDP growth

• India’s Industrial Production unexpectedly shrank 3.5% in March

2012 against a robust growth of 9.4% in March 2011, as high

inflation and high interest rates pulled down manufacturing sector

while mining was mired in policy morass.

• A sector-wise analysis of the IIP data shows that primarily

responsible for the dismal performance was the capital goods

segment owing to a sharp drop in fresh investment. Output of this

segment contracted by a hefty 21.3% in March 2012 & as a result,

the manufacturing sector, as a whole, which has a share of nearly

75% in the IIP basket, also shrank by 4.4% during March 2012.

• IIP growth slowed in April-March (2011-12) period too, deepening

fears of an economic slowdown that could force the central bank

to ease monetary policy further despite inflation risks. Industrial

output growth for 2011-12 stood at 2.8% compared to 8.2% in the

previous year.

IIP

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Mar 11

Apr 11

May 11

Jun 11

Jul 11 Aug 11

Sep 11

Oct 11

Nov 11

Dec 11

Jan 12

Feb 12

Mar 12

8.1 8.4 8.3

7.8 7.7

6.9

6.1

5.1

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4)

Economic Outlook - Domestic

As on 27th April 2012, Bank credits grew by 17.6% on a Y-o-Y basis which is 410 Bps lower than the growth witnessed in April 2011(i.e. 21.8%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 13.7%, viz-a viz a growth of 16.6% in April 2011.

Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet stronger before March 31, and meet their targets, and so there was a spurt in short-term deposits and advances.

On 17th April 2012, Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates for the first time in three years by reducing the repo rate by 50 bps to 8%, to give boost to flagging economic growth but warned that there is limited scope for further rate cuts.

India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a faster-than-expected 7.23% in April 2012 from a year earlier, mainly driven by higher food prices and manufactured items. It was 6.89% for the previous month. The February Inflation number was revised from 6.95% to 7.36%

Food inflation, which makes up 14.33% of the wholesale price index, touched a 13-month high at 10.5% in April. It was led by a 26.3% spurt in vegetable prices during the month. Vegetable prices rose 61% in the month from a year ago.

India's new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-India General Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) rose to 10.36% in April 2012 – the fourth month of such a measure in the country of retail prices - against 9.38% in the previous month due to a sharp increase in prices of vegetables, edible oil and milk products.

Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs

7 * End of period figures

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Wholesale Price Index

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

23.0%

25.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits

8

Equity Outlook

The Month of May saw renewed volatility in Global Financial markets because of fresh concerns about Greek exit from the euro area.

Spanish bond yields have also spiked up. We would expect the monetary and fiscal authorities in Europe to address these issues in a

meaningful way this month. US growth has also slowed down resulting in renewed expectations about announcement of further

quantitative easing by US Federal Reserve. QE II announced in second half of 2010 resulted in significant upsides in risk assets like

equities and commodities.

With the crude oil prices falling more than 20% in last two months, we expect monetary easing cycle to accelerate in India. The

biggest concerns about India have been due to high fiscal and current account deficit both of which are a function of crude oil prices.

As crude oil prices come down, inflation and fiscal deficit numbers will look better giving RBI more leeway to cut rates. Q4FY12

earnings have been more or less in line with expectations with private banks and consumer companies recording impressive earnings

growth. The current valuations provide opportunity to pick several undervalued bottom up ideas, which have the potential to deliver

returns superior to broader markets in the next few years.

9

Sector View

Sector Stance Remarks

Automobiles Overweight

Demand outlook is subdued with weak earnings growth. However, raw material prices have started

coming down which would boost margins. The rate cuts have already started to trickle down which

will boost demand. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to

lesser competition and higher pricing power.

BFSI Overweight

Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from

consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has

good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in

managing asset quality better and would lead to increase in credit growth

IT/ITES Neutral

While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order inflows might

slow down in near term. However, in the next few quarters big rupee depreciation will provide

cushion to IT companies earnings .

Cement Neutral Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. With pricing power returning, e are

becoming constructive on this space.

Power Utilities Neutral We like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in

earnings and decent return on capital.

FMCG Neutral We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the

growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.

10

Sector View

Sector Stance Remarks

Healthcare Neutral

We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in

generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the

developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian

pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and

CRAMS space

E&C Neutral

The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. However, The significant slowdown in order

inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector. Now since the interest rate

cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space.

Telecom Neutral

The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability

levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly

and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.

Energy Underweight We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying

economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.

Metals Underweight

Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about

growth in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices might stay depressed as

growth slows down significantly in China and other emerging markets

12

Debt Outlook

• The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield dipped by 30 bps in May to close at 8.38%.

• Bond yields have dropped 30 basis points in the month of may, after January-March economic growth data came in at a

much-lower-than-expected 5.3%, setting up expectations the central bank would be more open to monetary easing

despite its previous concerns about inflation along with the recent slump in oil prices, with both US crude and Brent

futures below $100 a barrel.

• The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond spread has increased to 102 bps on 31st may 2012 from a 76 Bps spread

on 30th April 2012. On the contrary, The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9.4% on 31st May as compared to 9.44% on 30th

April 2012.

10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve

(%)

(%)

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

0.0

0.8

1.6

2.4

3.2

4.0

4.7

5.5

6.3

7.1

7.9

8.7

9.5

10.2

11.0

11.8

12.6

13.4

14.2

15.0

15.7

16.5

17.3

18.1

18.9

19.7

6.80

7.30

7.80

8.30

8.80

9.30

Debt Strategy

Outlook Category Details

Long Tenure Debt

With the much awaited trend reversal in the interest rates coming as a 50 Bps rate cut and signals of no more cuts in near future, we would recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24 months in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the same. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.

Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.

13

The much awaited and expected trend reversal of the interest rates starting with a 50 Bps rate cut, we would recommend investment in short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing interesting investment opportunities.

Short Tenure Debt

Credit

14

Forex

• INR has depreciated against all the major currencies. It depreciated by 6.9%, in May ( 2.6% in April 2012) against the US Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it has depreciated by 5.5%

• However, surging crude oil prices and their cascading impact on inflation and growth in India, which imports about 80 per cent of its oil requirements, is expected to limit the rise in the rupee.

• Rupee depreciated against Euro by 0.5%. The euro was seen recovering its losses on account of smooth Italian bond auction, which tried to cool the European markets which were sparked by the downgrade of Spain.

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data

• Exports during April, 2012 were valued at US$ 24.46 bn which was 3.23% higher in Dollar terms than the level of US$ 23.69 bn during April, 2011 while Imports during April, 2012 were valued at US$ 37.94 bn representing a growth of 3.83% in Dollar terms over the level of imports valued at US$ 36.54 bn in April, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $13.49 bn.

• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.

• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.

-10000

40000

90000

140000

FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)

Capital Account Balance

(6.92%)

(2.15%)

(0.48%)

(8.43%) -9.00%

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

USD GBP EURO YEN

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

(20)

-

20

40

60

80

100 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)

15

Commodities

Precious

Metals

Oil & Gas

Crude oil fell below $100 a mark in line with our expectation and we continue to maintain that crude shall be under pressure for some time to come unless the liquidity glut arising out of QE pushes prices up. The slew of fundamentals keep prices under pressure. The US stockpiles are at multi-year high; the Saudi oil production is at 23 years peak. On the flip side, the growing Euro zone concerns and drastic slow down in China dented oil demand as global economies risk moving into recession. Expect oil to remain stable and all eyes shall now be on Fed and Euro zone members for more QE’s.

Crude

Gold Gold staged a strong come back at the start of this month in line with our. We expect gold prices to remain at an elevated levels for the rest of this calendar year. As a quasi currency, we see more safe haven purchases to happen going forward in the yellow metal given restrictions in purchases of Swiss and other perceived safe haven currencies of the Euro zone. The recent fall in rupee denominated gold prices amid some relaxation of the budgetary provision with respect to gold purchases further improved physical buying in India. With global markets at a key inflection points with the forth coming events ahead in the month of June, expect gold prices to remain at an elevated levels.

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31

-May

-11

30

-Ju

n-1

1

31

-Ju

l-1

1

31

-Au

g-1

1

30

-Sep

-11

31

-Oct

-11

30

-No

v-1

1

31

-Dec

-11

31

-Jan

-12

29

-Feb

-12

31

-Mar

-12

30

-Ap

r-1

2

31

-May

-12

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

31

-May

-20

11

30

-Ju

n-2

01

1

31

-Ju

l-2

01

1

31

-Au

g-2

01

1

30

-Sep

-20

11

31

-Oct

-20

11

30

-No

v-2

01

1

31

-Dec

-20

11

31

-Jan

-20

12

29

-Feb

-20

12

31

-Mar

-20

12

30

-Ap

r-2

01

2

31

-May

-20

12

Real Estate Outlook - I

15

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Residential

The FY12 year ended in vain with lots of expectation of price correction.

Though, all prime pockets in Mumbai, Pune, Gurgaon and Bangalore

have recorded 8-9% better sales in the last quarter of the FY12

compared to FY11, majorly due to new project launches. Markets like

Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune and Bangalore to an extent remained

stagnant due to bigger projects being launched by all major local

developers. Mumbai is majorly affected by the building plans not being

sanctioned from almost over a year. The new Development Control

Rules (DCR) and have only indicated a rise in price and precisely due the

same reasons Thane has gained enormously on appreciation and

investment last year. Gurgon expansion in sectors like 114, 90 and 65

all far ends, have only taken the price of prime sectors 10-12% high.

The UP elections kept Noida unattractive for almost 3 quarter in FY12.

Not much change in prices, though the investors

demand in these sectors increased since prices being

still affordable. Also the infrastructure development in

Tier II cities have been dramatic in last 2-3 years and

opened the city wide on real estate developments with

high-rise buildings taking the glam quotient high with

the new generation or emergence of nuclear families

in last decade. With the new Finance Bill approving of

ECB in Affordable Housing sector, lot of change is

expected in demand since it targets houses in the

range of 15-20 lacs.

Commercial/IT

Though 30% better on lease transaction than last year, the capital

values have taken a major hit due to the rent being compressed. The

supply seems still a concern and will only even out in 2014-15. IT/ITES

and Services consuming over 70% of real estate in India is now seen

governing the market dynamics. Average rentals other than Mumbai for

warm shell remains still under Rs. 40 per sqft.

High streets have seen appreciation, traditional

commercial locations still preferred and are intact on

values. Cities like Lucknow, Indore, Jaipur, Ahmedabad,

Surat, Vishakatnam, Chandigarh, Madurai are thriving

on better consume aspirations.

Real Estate Outlook - II

16

Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Retail

Other than India’s top 10-15 malls, most have vacancy of

minimum 30% and lately many have changed plans to suit

commercial demand. Traditional investors exposure to the

segment came down drastically making exits of developer

difficult. The revenue share model with retailers remains a

concern to all mall developers.

Nothing to beat local traditional markets. Malls are many and

footfalls keep reducing year on year putting heavy conversion

pressure on retailers to keep innovating lease as well as product

to achieve break-even. Many brands have increased their

presence in Hi-streets than malls.

Land

Very attractive, still have scope of high appreciation. India’s

Infrastructure story will only keep demand high and the Real

Estate Investors (small and big) are exploring the unexplored.

Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit since the

trend of standalone homes are prevalent.

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We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

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Honest, unbiased advise

18

A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.

Pedigreed Senior Management Team

19

Disclaimer

The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group

companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the

accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on

their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any

information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of

Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

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time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that

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20

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