Why I think Apple’s next product has 4 wheels. by Dan Roam

A is for iCar

The other day, I got to thinking…

Apple is the world’s richest company.

That’s a lot of cheddar.

But Apple has a problem.

It’s a wormhole!

Part One

The Apple Problem.

Apple has too much money. I believe that our best creativity comes from constraint. When we’ve accumulated more than enough of any resource, two things happen:

1)We get more cautious. (We have more to lose.)

2)We have a harder time making decisions. (When we can do anything, it’s hard to know which things to do.)

How much is too much?

See, Apple exists to change the world.

Because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do.

- Steve Jobs (1955-2011)

That’s Apple’s DNA.

This was never “just another PC.”

Nor was this.

This was never “just another MP4 player.”

This was never “just another phone.”

This was never “just another tablet.”

So, what changes the world?

Oooo! Show me show me show me!!

A watch? Seriously?

You want me to buy a what?

There’s more at stake here than a watch.

I’m feeling let down.

Tim Cook needs to prove he gets it.

He’s great with the $$$, but…

Jony Ive needs a new passion project.

And a hug!

And Apple is just too quiet.

Part Two

Rumor hates silence.

The rumor mill is spinning.

What’s it spinning? It’s wheels.

What’s behind the rumors?

It sure feels like there’s something here…

Reports

emerged this

week… an

electric car…

Apple’s plans

are unclear

and

unconfirmed

… a few

hundred

people to

work…

And now

there is

speculation

that the

company

is working

on a car…

surely be

designed in

the famous

studio where

Ive and his

colleagues

work.

Autos have

become the latest

obsession for

Silicon Valley,

with Apple

assigning about

200 people to

work on an

electric vehicle

technology…

Investors have long dreamed of Apple acquiring Tesla Motors, given the disruptive characteristics and cultural similarities between the two companies.

And from Apple, just more silence.

Part Three

What Apple really does. (That few others can.)

Apple designs. Apple is the greatest product design and business design* company in industrial history.

*This part tends to be forgotten in all our excitement about the toys, but it is the real reason Apple continually surprises the skeptics.

Apple makes manufacturing happen. A huge part of Apple’s success is the company’s ability to effectively outsource high-quality manufacturing.

Apple kicks ‘supply chain’. Nobody is better than Apple at integrating every step of the industrial process, from beginning to end. Apple delivers exactly what it says it is going to deliver exactly when it says it will.

Apple markets. No company has ever established the cult-like connection with customers that Apple has. Calling what Apple does “marketing” is like calling the Pacific Ocean a ‘big puddle.’

Laaaa! Laaaa!

Apple makes markets. Speaking of oceans, Apple excels at finding blue oceans* that other companies – other industries, actually – seem to miss. *Blue Ocean is the business-speak term for an untapped new growth opportunity.

Apple understands.

Enough said.

Part Four

Meanwhile, back in Detroit…

The auto guys seem clueless.

“If there were a rumor that Mercedes planned to start building smartphones, then Apple would not be sleepless at night. And the same applies to me.”

- Dieter Zetsche, Chairman Daimler AG *and former CEO Daimler-Chrysler. (And who just lost his head of North

American R&D to… Apple.)

“We take steel, raw steel, and turn it into car. They have no idea what they're getting into if they get into that.”

-Dan Akerson, former CEO

General Motors

“Absolutely silly.”

- Praveen Narayanan, automotive research

manager at Frost & Sullivan

The auto guys are right, but in the wrong way.

Detroit says, “Cars are about bending metal & that's hard.”

Sure, but that assumes a 100 year old business model.

A better way to think outside that iron box is to ask a few questions…

Q: What is the Amazon of taxis? A: Uber Q: What is the iTunes of commuting? A: Zip car Don't ask, ‘How heavy is iron?’ Ask, ‘What is purpose of a car?’

If the purpose of a car is to get me from A-to-B with convenience, comfort and style, then car ownership is the business to disrupt. I suspect that’s the business Apple is thinking about. (Yes, as a car-guy, I totally get that I need to own. But I used to say that about movies and music too.)

This rings a bell. “There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”

- Steve Ballmer, 2007

“It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.”

- Bill Gates, 2010

Here’s a word: Tesla.

Okay, it won’t be profitable until 2020, but come on, Detroit – take a hint!

• A Silicon Valley start-up.

• No previous auto manufacturing experience.

• Breakthrough technology.

• All electric. • Beautiful design. • People with

money want it.

What happened to Detroit’s emotional intelligence?

1953 Chevrolet Corvette 1965 Ford Mustang

Part Five

What will the product look like?

A rectangle with round corners. “Well, circles and ovals are good, but how about drawing rectangles with rounded corners? Rectangles with rounded corners are everywhere!”

- Steve Jobs

“The project is codenamed ‘Titan,’ and it ‘resembles a minivan.’”

- The Wall Street Journal, Feb 13, 2015

I predict the Titan will be a cubic, 4-door minivan with lots of glass.

I think Titan will look like…

Dan Roam

I imagine something incredibly simple.

A rectangle with rounded corners.

Dan Roam

With typical Apple polish, this elemental design could be beautiful.

It’s an iPhone on wheels!

Dan Roam

It’s a simple riff on this successful theme:

Why not? They are all rounded cubes – and are the bestselling cars among hipsters…

Or this.

(With sincere love and apologies to Richard Scarry.)

Part Six

What will the business look like?

The key will be the business model. Those who know technology know that the products Apple makes aren’t really the key to their success.

What has been more critical is Apple’s ability to use their products to redefine entire businesses.

Whether music and movie licensing and distribution, the creation of the app universe, or redefining publishing, Apple makes most of its money by making those new markets.

Apple products create new industries. This thing changed graphic design, which in turn changed printing, which changed publishing, which in time created a new industry called “interaction design.”

This thing changed album-oriented music by offering on-demand singles, which changed how music is produced, which changed how music is licensed, which changed how music is sold.

This thing changed software development by offering an online app market, which changed how software is created, which changed how tech companies attract investors, which changed how capital flows in the tech sector.

I’d expect the same thing from iCar.

When the Detroit CEOs and experts say, “Cars are about bending iron and that’s hard,” they’re right.

But they miss the point.

Apple isn’t interested in bending iron;

Apple is interested in distorting reality.

2020 vision required.

What AirBnb is doing to Marriott.

What will Apple’s iCar do to Detroit, Stuttgart, and Toyota City?

What Uber is doing to Yellow.

What Amazon did to Borders.

What iTunes did to Tower Records.

What Starbucks did to every café in the world.

Part Seven

In the driver’s seat.

Steve Jobs’ car.

Jony Ive’s cars.

Your car.

Available in:

White Silver Black Dan Roam

And one more thing…

Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.

Dan Roam is a car nut, a computer nut, and a design nut. He also writes picture books for businesspeople.

www.danroam.com

BTW, I’d love to show you how to make presentations like this one:

www.napkinacademy.com

Sources • Bloomberg Business, Nov. 25, 2014. “Apple Tops

700 Billion…” by Tim Higgins, Joseph Ciolli, Callie Bost

• The New Yorker, Feb. 23, 2015. “The Shape of Things to Come.” by Ian Parker.

• The New Yorker online, Feb. 24, 2015. “Could Jony Ive Pull off and Apple Car?” by John Cassidy.

• Business Insider, Aug 4, 2014. “Tim Cook Will Have to Prove Himself…” by Steve Kovach.

• The Economist, Feb. 21, 2015. “Upsetting the Apple Car.”

• Marketplace Radio, Feb. 20, 2015. “Will Apple Put the Pedal to the Metal?” by Nova Safo

• Bloomberg Business, Feb 18, 2015. “Apple Hairball?...” by Tim Higgins

• Medium.com, Feb. 18, 2015. “Apple will buy Tesla…” by Jason Calacanis (@jason)