2016 july grayreports - demand trends in higher education
TRANSCRIPT
GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through July 2016
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Today’s Presenters
§ Bob Atkins – CEO at Gray Associates ─ Bob led Gray’s entry into the education industry and the development of Gray’s proprietary
industry databases and service offerings. He has worked with all of Gray’s education clients, consulting with CEOs and CMOs on business strategy, pricing, location selection, and program strategy. He is an expert in business strategy, marketing, sales and high-tech distribution channels. He has helped AT&T, American Express, HP, IBM, and a number of higher education clients to develop growth strategies, enter new markets, and build their sales and channel organizations. He has also led efforts that have eliminated tens of millions of dollars in cost, particularly in sales and channel management. He is a published author, whose articles have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Sales and Marketing Management, and other publications around the world. He received an MBA, with honors, from Harvard Business School and a BA, magna cum laude, from Harvard College.
§ Amanda Opperman – Senior Institutional Effectiveness Specialist at Wonderlic ─ Amanda leads initiatives to help institutions with the achievement and measurement of outcomes,
including assessment implementation and effectiveness planning. She began her career in the field of higher education as a Rhetoric & Writing Studies professor at San Diego State University. Most recently, she served as the Assistant Dean at California University of Management and Sciences. She has also served as Vice Chancellor at Southern States University and Academic Director at Hancock International College.
─ Amanda is currently writing her dissertation on the correlation of cognition and attainment of learning outcomes as part of her doctoral studies in the San Diego State University/Claremont Graduate University joint-PhD in Education. She also holds a B.A. and an M.A. in English Literature.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Who Is Gray?
GrayData
Employment BLS/O*NET
Placement Rates Gray Research
Student Inquiries GrayReports
Demographics US Census
Job Postings CEB TalentNeuron
Programs Price Projects Place § Program portfolio
strategy § Program Profiles § Program development
§ City targeting § Location selection § Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity § Price positioning § Price optimization
§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation § Acquisition analysis § Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition IPEDS+
Program Evaluation System
§ Custom Scoring
§ Scorecards
- By Program
- By Market
- 100+ Markets
- 1,000+ Programs
Enhanced Crosswalks
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
What Is GrayReports?
GrayReports tracks demand for higher education. § Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. § Paid subscribers have online access to detailed data for their programs and markets.
Over 48 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present
Over 750,000 new inquiries in July 2016 Nearly 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries Over 700 metro areas with over 10,000 inquiries
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Job Postings
5. Wonderlic - Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness
6. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
We will share data from 2014, 2015, and 2016
Introduce how to read chart: years and colors
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Inquiries have decreased an average of 10% year-over-year in 2016.
-10%
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
In July, inquiry volumes dropped 10% year-over-year.
-10% YoY
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiries have increased almost every month this year. They jumped 11% in July.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
+11% YoY
Define Branded Inquiries: Inquiries for a particular school’s brand name
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
External Inquiries: Overall Results
External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 15% year-over-year. § In July, external inquiries fell 17%.
-17% YoY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
Define External Inquiries: Inquiries from a third-party site that generates inquiries for higher education.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile. § Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 0% and as much as 21%. § They appear to be stabilizing at Q1 2014 levels. § Behind the scenes, Branded conversion rates are falling. Conversion rates for External inquiries are flat.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
+11%
+21%
+0% +4%
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For April inquiries, total student conversions crashed 22% year-over-year. § This is the worst decline so far this year. § Conversions of May inquiries have a lot of ground to make up to reach last year’s levels.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0 5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-22% YoY
Transition: Let’s turn to April May and June
Immature Months1
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $45.00 $44.48
$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
In July, the price of an external inquiry decreased 1% year-over-year. § In the first six months of 2016, the average price for paid inquiries is up 2% year-over-year.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
-1%
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Job Postings
5. Wonderlic - Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness
6. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Year-to-date, inquiries for online programs have slipped 3% year-over-year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016 -3%
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Reversing the trend, June inquiries for online programs jumped 16% year-over-year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
16% YoY
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online programs declined 16% in April. § Conversions are taking longer, rising from three months to four or five. § For example, March inquiries continued to convert; they are now up 7%. § April results may improve as conversions continue to drift in.
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
10,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
-16% YoY 1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In July, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 26% year-over-year. § The first six months of 2016 have all fallen below year-ago and 2014 levels. § Year-over-year, inquiries for on-campus programs are down 14% so far this year.
2012
0 50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-26% YoY 1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 18% YoY in March. § May, June and July are poised to beat last year.
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-18% YOY Immature Months1
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 20
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Job Postings
5. Wonderlic - Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness
6. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
Only one of The Big 5 cities grew year-over-year. § Atlanta grew 3% in July. § Los Angeles had the largest decline.
-34%
-17%
-41%
6%
-32%
3%
-9% -14%
-26% -31%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Atlanta, GA New York, NY Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA Los Angeles, CA
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
The Big 5 Programs: June Growth
Only one of The Big Five programs grew in June. § Registered Nursing grew 5% year-over-year. § Criminal Justice/Police Science remained flat. § Medical Assistant dropped 11%. § Business Administration dropped over 26% at the Bachelor’s and Associate’s levels.
5%
0%
-11%
-26%
-36% -40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Registered Nursing (ADN, BSN)
Criminal Justice Medical Assistant Business Admin: Bachelor's +
Business Admin: Associate's
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
-88% -39%
-3% -24%
-82%
563%
384%
186%
108% 78%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
Counseling Psychology
Public Administration
Medical Insurance Coding
Health Info./Medical Records Technology
Computer Programming
The Fast 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Three new programs showed up in the five fastest-growing programs1. § Four of the five programs increased over 100% in July2. § Computer Programing and Counseling Psychology are both repeats from last month.
1. Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012).
2. May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
In addition to inquiries, a program evaluation requires data on competition, jobs, wages, and degree fit.
Organizational Leadership: Philadelphia
The demand is strong for this program. But demand is not all you should consider.
It is primarily Bach and Grad program
Relatively little competition in Phil.
But, fewer job postings than graduates. This is unusually low (the average is 5 job postings per grad for a typical large program)
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
In addition to inquiries, a program evaluation requires data on competition, jobs, wages, and degree fit.
Organizational Leadership: Philadelphia
The demand is strong for this program. But demand is not all you should consider.
It is primarily Bach and Grad program
Relatively little competition in Phil.
But, fewer job postings than graduates. This is unusually low (the average is 5 job postings per grad for a typical large program)
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 26
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
In addition to inquiries, a program evaluation requires data on competition, jobs, wages, and degree fit.
Organizational Leadership: Philadelphia
The demand is strong for this program. But demand is not all you should consider.
It is primarily Bach and Grad program
Relatively little competition in Phil.
But, fewer job postings than graduates. This is unusually low (the average is 5 job postings per grad for a typical large program)
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 27
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
-26%
-19%
-17%
-8%
-6%
-5%
-2%
-1%
4%
16%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Associate's External Campus Bachelor's Certificate Doctorate Master's Unknown Degree Online Branded
Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2016/2015 (May to July)
Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing Three Months
Only Branded and Online Modality inquiries grew for the quarter. § Higher degree levels continue to perform better, but they are now declining.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months
For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries. § Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel. § Five different branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter. § Two external channels grew year-over-year for this period.
-60% -46% -39% -34% -27% -22% -19% -16%
4% 10%
22% 26%
77% 134%
396%
-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%
Branded: All Other Internal Branded: Display External: PPL Branded: Referral Branded: PPC - Inbound Call Branded: Offline Media Branded: Email Branded: Interactive External: Affiliate Branded: PPC Branded: Website Branded: Organic Branded: Inbound Phone External: Affiliate - PPC Branded: Social Media
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels
(April through July YoY)
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Job Postings
5. Wonderlic - Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness
6. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
NCES Cross Walks
NCES crosswalks assume a tight link between program of study and occupation.
§ NCES crosswalks a B.A. in English Language and Literature to just two occupations (SOCs).
English Language and Literature, General
CIP 23.0101
English Teachers SOC 25-1123
Secondary School Teachers SOC 25-2031
Source: National Center for Education Statistics: SOC 2010 mapped to CIP
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Reality: Loose Alignment, especially for Liberal Arts
According to the U.S. Census, English majors are actually employed in over 400 SOCs, not two.
1 2
446
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Gray analysis of over 2.0 million records
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
CIPs (Programs) NCES Matched SOCs Actual Employment: SOCs
Count of Programs and Occupations CIP 23.0101 English Language and Literature, General
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
What Do English Majors Do? Teach, go to law school, become CEOs….
$18,840 $22,480
$28,340 $29,700
$39,690 $42,380
$44,180 $44,290 $44,580 $45,520
$59,210 $60,450
$64,150 $65,290
$73,640
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
Retail salespersons Other teachers and instructors
Secretaries and administrative assistants First-line supervisors of retail sales workers
Editors Writers and authors
Elementary and middle school teachers Postsecondary teachers
Librarians Secondary school teachers
Miscellaneous managers Management analysts
Education administrators Chief executives and legislators
Lawyers, judges, and other judicial workers
25th-Percentile Annual Wage for Each Occupation
Top 15 Occupations and Wages Program: BA in English
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Programs with the Fastest Job Postings Growth over the Trailing 12 Months
Pharmacy Technician has the fastest growing job market with a 20% increase in job postings. § Healthcare occupations grew the fastest, with six of the top fifteen programs. § Nursing programs hold two of the top 15 slots: RN and LVN
6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
8% 8%
9% 9%
15% 16% 16% 16%
20%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Plumbing Applied Horticulture
Medical Biller Computer Networking and Telecom
Landscaping Computer and Information Systems Security
Computer Engineering, General Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse
Painting Registered Nursing
Pharmacy Criminal Justice
Special Education Physical Therapy
Pharmacy Technician
Change in Job Postings By Program July 2015-July 2016 vs. Prior Year
Year-Over-Year Change
Healthcare
Source: CEB TalentNeuron, Gray Analysis. National Job Postings by CIP Code. Includes only the top 100 programs based on job postings.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Nursing: Competition for Jobs
There are jobs for nurses…but hundreds of thousands of graduates compete for these jobs.
§ 48,000 students completed LVN programs § 86,000 students completed ADN programs § 131,000 students completed BSN programs
47,679
86,307
131,281
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
LPN/LVN ADN BSN
2015 Nursing Completions
How can 131,281 BSN graduates differentiate themselves?
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 35
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Job Postings
5. Wonderlic - Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness
6. Summary
36
Presentation © Wonderlic, Inc. 2016
Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness:
Using competency-based digital badges to meet the hiring expectations of Allied Health employers
What is a competency?
• A competency is a specific kind of learning objective
• A competency is the capability to apply a set of related knowledge, skills, and abilities required to successfully perform critical work functions
• A competency can be measured through direct assessment: • Direct assessment is based on an analysis of
student behaviors in which they demonstrate how well they have mastered learning outcomes
§ Examples of Nursing competencies: � Perform first aid to immobilize fractures and
control bleeding � Assist patients with range of motion exercises,
using crutches and crutch gaits � Measure an infant's height, weight, and head
circumference, and plot on growth chart
What is a competency? cont.
§ Direct assessment items are: � Interactive � Competency-based � Scenario-based � Student-centered
§ The best direct assessments are: � Employer-vetted � Third-party
How can I measure a competency?
How can I measure a competency? cont.
1.6% of employers agreed that local colleges provided
them with credentials that clearly verified
graduates’ knowledge and
skills.”
8.2% of employers agreed that they find
academic transcripts, grades,
and GPAs to be highly reflective of
students’ on-the-job skills.”
How do employers verify competencies?
83% of employers stated that they prefer digital badges over
academic transcripts when making hiring
decisions.”
86% of employers stated that they
would encourage local educators to
provide students with competency-based
digital badges.”
How do employers verify competencies?
§ Badges are digital icons awarded by institutions and/or organizations that signify accomplishments such as completion of a project, mastery of a skill, or marks of experience
What is a digital badge?
Certified Nursing Assistant Seeking Employment
Highly trained nursing assistant with a track record of professional behavior and exhibited critical thinking skills. I have earned credentials for being a team player and I have received recognition for my abilities in workplace communication. Please take some time to review my certifications below. By clicking on each, you can view the digital badges I have earned to verify my competency.
Certified Nursing Assistant Extern Associate’s Degree, Nursing Assistant 2016
Certified Nursing Assistant Seeking Employment
Highly trained nursing assistant with a track record of professional behavior and exhibited critical thinking skills. I have earned credentials for being a team player and I have received recognition for my abilities in workplace communication. Please take some time to review my credentials below. By clicking on the
This Nursing Assistant badge was awarded for demonstrated competency in Basic Phlebotomy based on the criteria below:
This Nursing Assistant badge was awarded for demonstrated competency in Basic Phlebotomy based on the criteria below:
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Job Postings
5. Wonderlic - Measuring and Verifying Job Readiness
6. Summary
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 49
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Key Demand Trends and Observations
The downward trend in inquiries continued in July, but jobs are growing.
§ Inquiry volumes fell 10% but branded and online grew. § Conversions of April inquiries were down 22% YoY. § Average inquiry prices dropped below $45. § Higher degree levels continued to outperform. § Social Media continues to be a strong channel. § Better data and systems are available to support your decisions. ─ Where to focus your marketing—by program and market ─ What careers to focus on ─ What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
[email protected] @Gray_Associates
617.366.2836
Amanda Opperman Senior Institutional Effectiveness Specialist
Wonderlic [email protected]
@SpecialOppsEdu
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
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