2015 april grayreports - student demand trends
TRANSCRIPT
GRAYREPORTS Demand for Educational Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through April 2015
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Who Is Gray?
GrayData
Completions and Enrollments IPEDS
Employment BLS/O*NET
Placement Rates Gray Research
Industry Inquiries GrayReports
Demographics US Census
Job Postings WANTED Analytics
Students Programs Strategy Locations § Demographic
priorities § Geo-priorities § Market share
§ City selection § Location selection § Relocation analysis § Consolidation
§ Program selection § Program development § Curriculum enhancement § Market reports
§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation § Pricing § Outcome improvement
Advanced Analytics Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Educational Institutions and Investors
Program Pricing: Coming in 2015
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What is GrayReports?
GrayReports tracks demand trends in higher education. § Overall industry trend reports are a free monthly service, which includes these webinars. § Custom reports on trends by market and programs, which we provide to our paid subscribers:
─ Monthly reports for their specific programs and markets ─ On-line access to detailed data for their programs and markets
Over 38 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present
Over 920,000 new inquiries in April 2015 Over 185 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Why GrayReports?
To tell if you are winning, you need data on your performance—and your competition’s.
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Both Scores Matter
Down by one, in the bottom of the ninth requires specific actions by managers, coaches and players.
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Both Scores Mater
Up by one in the bottom of the ninth, requires a very different approach.
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Why GrayReports?
GrayReports fills in the scoreboard—so you know if you are winning or losing the battle for market share.
• GrayReports
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Key Demand Trends and Observations
1. April has the best year-over-year inquiry results in 2015, down only 2%.
2. Year-over-year...
1. Inquiries for on-line programs reversed their decline, finishing up 4%.
2. Inquiries for on-ground programs weakened.
3. Conversion rates trended lower.
4. Average cost per converted inquiry continued to rise.
3. The largest programs and markets continued to lose inquiry volume.
4. Though the gap has fluctuated, the market remained bifurcated: - Struggling institutions dropped 4%. - Sustainers were up 1%
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Marketing Implications
5. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Overall Student Inquiries
April demand held steady with March and only dropped 2% year-over-year. § January and February were each down 10% or more. § March was down 6%. § April has the best year-over-year results in 2015.
-2% YOY
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
3.4%
3.1%
3.6%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.8%
3.3%
3.4%
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.3%
2.3%
1.6%
2.7% 2.3%
1.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Education Industry Inquiry Conversion Rates 2014 2015 Average Immature Conversion Rate
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates
Although the inquiry gap was closing in April, year-over-year conversion rate comparisons were weak. § January inquiries, now mature, converted at a lower rate than year-ago levels for the month, and
compared with the 2014 mature average. § February, March and April were at or below norms for immature months.
Immature Months1
2014 Mature Average: 3.4%
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Number of Conversions
Lower inquiry levels and conversion rates drove down conversions. § Conversions in January 2015, now a mature month, were down a significant 26% year-over-year. § February, March and April conversions are also likely to fall short, but it is too soon to be sure.
Immature Months1
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
- 5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Education Industry Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2013
Immature Months1
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries
The average price for external inquiries continued to increase slightly month-over-month. § This slow increase mirrored the pattern observed during the first four months of 2014. § In April, inquiry prices increased just 2% to $44.55. § Through April, average prices were 4%-5% higher year-over-year.
$44.01 $44.20 $44.24 $44.55
$42.13 $42.24 $42.13 $42.87 $41.59
$44.97 $44.67 $44.86 $46.15 $46.45 $45.94
$43.11
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average Price per Pay-per-Lead Inquiry All Programs and Award Levels
2015 2014
Note: Inquiry price is the average price for pay-per-lead inquiries.
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Average Cost Per Converted Inquiry
The cost per converted inquiry continued to rise. § January, the most recent mature month, closed at $1,559 up 24% from the prior year. § February, March and April also trended well above prior year levels. § As February, March and April mature, cost per conversion will drop, but will likely remain above 2014.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $1,255.10 $1,360.79 $1,179.69 $1,233.57 $1,175.09 $1,270.14 $1,185.53 $1,357.09 $1,351.38 $1,164.42 $1,538.47 $1,428.85 2015 $1,559.39 $1,914.91 $1,938.86 $2,726.17 2013 $1,367.42 $1,521.58 $1,326.79 $1,387.29 $1,376.81 $1,135.58 $1,267.35 $1,322.75 $1,455.19 $1,405.89 $1,379.73 $1,377.45
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000 Cost Per Converted Inquiry All Programs and Award Levels
Immature Months
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Marketing Implications
5. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Inquiries for On-Line Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change On-line inquiry volumes in April bucked the negative trend by finishing up 4% from prior-year levels. § Inquiry volume for the first quarter of 2015 was down 11% from cumulative first quarter 2014 volume. § April is the first month since January 2013 to have positive year-over-year on-line inquiry growth.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015
4% YOY
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs
January 2015 matured, but continued the negative trend established in the latter part of 2014. § Inquiry conversions for on-line programs in January, now mature, were down 17% from prior year. § With one month left to mature, February looks like it could mature at levels comparable to last year. § March and April are trending well below prior-year levels.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2013
Immature Months1
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs
Inquiries for on-ground programs declined over 10% in March and April. § March was the weakest month in 2015.
─ Lowest on-ground inquiry volume, ─ 15% drop from prior year.
§ April was slightly better: inquiry volume was higher than March, and was only down 12% from 2014.
2012
0 50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015
-12% YOY
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Conversions of on-ground inquiries continue to weaken. § Conversions for on-ground programs plummeted in the final months of 2014. § January 2015 finished 30% behind 2014. § February, March and April are likely to mature more than 15% below year-ago levels.
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2013
Immature Months1
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Conversions of External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2013
Conversions of External Inquiries
Conversions from external inquiries also continue to decline. § Conversions of external inquiries in January matured 35% behind year-ago levels. § February and March appear unlikely to meet prior-year levels. § April conversions are off to a slow start.
Immature Months
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Conversions of Internal Inquiries
January’s decline in internal inquiries was not as severe as declines in the final months of 2014. § Conversions of internal inquiries fell over 20% in November and December. § January conversions were down 18% from prior-year levels. § February, March and April are likely to mature below last year.
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Conversions of Internal Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2013
Immature Months
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Marketing Implications
5. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Largest Programs: April Growth
Only two of the five largest programs grew year-over-year in April.
§ Business Admin inquiry volumes grew 10%. § Health Care Admin grew 8%. § Medical Assisting and Accounting, which grew in March, dropped 17% in April. § Criminal Justice was the biggest loser once again, dropping 64%.
-8%
-28% -25%
6%
-29%
10% 8%
-17% -17%
-64% -70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Business Admin and Management
Health Care Admin/Management
Accounting Medical Assisting Criminal Justice/Police Science
Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries Five Largest Programs
2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Top 5 Fastest-Growing Programs in April
The five fastest-growing programs each grew at least 60% in April. § Health Information, a new program on the list, was the fastest-growing program in April. § Welding Tech was the second fastest-growing program. § Registered Nursing and Nursing Science remained on the list of fastest-growing programs, while
Electrical, Technician is new to the list in April.
122%
33% 28%
101%
10%
129%
75% 69% 65%
60%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
Health Info./Medical Records Admin.
Welding Tech Registered Nursing Electrical, Technician Nursing Science
Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Programs
2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change
1. Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012)
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Largest Cities for Inquiries
April inquiries for four of the five largest markets were down 5% or more. § Only New York declined by less than 5%. § Los Angeles was once again the worst-performing market, down 26%.
-14% -12%
-14%
-9%
3%
-3% -5%
-8%
-12%
-26% -30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
New York Atlanta Chicago Philadelphia Los Angeles
Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries Top Five Cities for Inquiries
2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries
One new city joined the list of fastest-growing cities in April. § Oklahoma City, the fast-growing market, followed 56% growth in March with 52% growth in April. § Wichita, new to the list in March, had growth of 33% in April. § Kansas City and Bridgeport remained on the list with growth of 13% and 12%, respectively. § Denver, CO replaced Indianapolis, IN on the list of fastest-growing cities.
-7%
-19% -16%
-7%
-16%
52%
33%
13% 10% 12%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
Oklahoma City, OK Wichita, KS Kansas City, MO/KS Denver, CO Bridgeport, CT
Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries
2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change
1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Sustainers vs. Strugglers: Inquiry Volume
While the gap between Strugglers and Sustainers has fluctuated in 2015, the Sustainers grew in April!
-12% -15% -15% -12%
0%
-3% -13% -16%
-31% -44% -46%
-27%
47% 44%
28%
10% 9% 7%
-6% -13%
-7% -7% -11% -9%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Sustainers vs. Strugglers Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2014
-15% -11% -8%
-4% -6% -8%
0%
1%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2015
Strugglers
Sustainers
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Marketing Implications
5. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Winning or Losing
You can’t tell if you are winning or losing the battle for market share just by looking at your own results.
Inquiry Scoreboard
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Down, but Winning
Being down just 4% when your markets and programs are down 9% is quite an accomplishment.
§ Communicate market constraints § Exploit pockets of inquiry growth - By program - By market - By neighborhood
§ Improve conversion rates - Pricing? - Admissions practices?
§ Improve retention § Cut costs
Inquiry Scoreboard Potential Implications
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
But, being down 4% when the market is growing 9% is not so great.
Down and Losing
§ Revamp marketing strategy and
tactics - Messaging? - Channels? - Brand? - Programs? - Investment?
Potential Implications Inquiry Scoreboard
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. National Inquiry Trends
2. Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs
3. Views by Program and Segment
4. Marketing Implications
5. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
Key Findings
§ The mix of inquiries is shifting to:
- Internal
- Healthy schools (Sustainers)
- Higher degree levels
- Smaller cities in the mid-west.
§ There are tremendous variations by city, program, and modality. - Three of the five fastest-growing cities are new to the list since February.
- Three of the five fastest-growing programs have also joined the list during the past 2 months.
- Large cities are shrinking, small mid-western cities are growing
§ You need a custom view that reflects the markets in which you compete.
§ You could know if you are winning or losing the battle for share. - Adapt your strategy to the market situation
- Correctly assess company and management performance
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GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]
A Special Offer
Today, we would like thank you with a special offer.
We will work with you to make the trial a success.
§ Customize data for your markets and programs.
§ Compare your results with industry results.
§ Create reports for senior management.
§ Help identify marketing tactics tailored to your markets, programs, and neighborhoods.
Trial Support
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Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webinars
Please join us next month!
June Webinar (May Results)
Friday, June 26th at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time
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Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact: Bob Atkins
CEO Gray Associates, Inc.
617-366-2836