2014 january grayreports - student demand trends

GRAYREPORTS Inquiry Intelligence

www.GrayAssociates.com

January 2014

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Contents

1.  Education Industry Inquiry Growth 2.  Fastest-Growing Cities in January 3.  Fastest Growing Programs in January 4.  Online Inquiry Share 5.  Conversion Rates 6.  Average Price per Inquiry



1.  Education Industry Inquiry Growth: 2012 vs. 2013

In 2013, year-over-year inquiries for educational programs in GrayReports’ sample fell sharply from 2012. §  In 2013, year-over-year education industry inquiries fell 13%, from 14.9 million to 12.9 million. §  Inquiries reached a low of 0.83 million in June.

1.24 1.13 1.09

1.06 1.24

1.10 1.15 1.21 1.17

1.11 1.14 0.98

1.11 0.98 1.04 1.00

0.98 0.83

0.92 1.02 0.95 1.04 0.99 0.93

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

Inqu

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(Mill

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Industry Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2012

2013



1. Education Industry Inquiry Growth: 2012 vs. 2013, Percent Change Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Year-over year, demand for education bottomed out in June 2013—which was 24% below 2012. §  May through July year-over-year inquiries for educational programs were 20% or more below 2012. §  Starting in October, year-over-year results began to improve, averaging less than 10% below 2012.

-11%

-13%

-5% -6%

-21%

-24%

-20%

-16%

-19%

-6%

-13%

-5%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

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Education Industry Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2013 YoY Percent Change 2014 YoY Percent Change



1.  Education Industry Inquiry Growth: January 2014 Results

The education industry is off to a relatively good start this year. January 2014 inquiries for educational programs were flat year-over-year—a large improvement from the previous January, which was down nearly 11% year-over-year.

1.244 1.109 1.102

-

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1.400

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Inqu

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(Mill

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Education Industry Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

-0.7% -10.8%



2.  Fastest-Growing Cities in January

All of the fastest-growing cities1 met or exceeded last year’s inquiry volumes. §  Phoenix, AZ was the fastest-growing market, up 37% from January 2013. §  Only three of the top five cities managed to grow. §  Atlanta and Miami were roughly flat year-over-year.

-17% -11%

-14%

-12% -14%

37%

9% 5% 0%

-1%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

Los Angeles CA Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

Industry Inquiries Top 5 Markets – January 2014

2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change

1. Includes only cities with over 25,000 inquiries for all programs from January 2012-2014, 15-mile radius.



3.  Fastest Growing Programs in January

The five fastest-growing programs1 all grew over 100% year-over-year in January. §  Respiratory Therapy Technician continued impressive gains, after posting a 45% gain in the prior year. §  Medical Records jumped over 500% after a soft 2012. §  Interestingly, Liberal Arts continues to grow, despite a tough job market.

45%

-42%

17%

-37% -19%

948%

728%

207% 201% 132%

-50%

150%

350%

550%

750%

950%

1150%

Respiratory Therapy Technician

Medical Records Liberal Arts and Sciences Adult Development and Aging.

Web Page, Digital Design.

Industry Inquiries Top 5 Programs – January 2014

2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change

1. Includes only programs with more than 5,000 inquiries in the month of January 2014.

-42%



4.  Online Inquiry Share

Online programs lost share in 2013. §  Online share peaked at 51% of education industry inquiries in 2012. §  It fell to a low of 36% of inquiries for educational programs in October 2013. §  In January 2014, online won only 37% of total inquiries, down from 43% in January 2013.

37%

0

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0.5

0.6

Per

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Edu

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Online Share of Education Industry Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2012 2013



2.5%

2.6%

2.7%

2.5%

2.6%

2.6%

3.0%

2.6%

2.5%

2.1%

2.3%

3.0%

2.6%

2.9%

2.7%

2.8%

3.3%

3.0%

2.8%

2.5%

2.5%

2.3%

2.2%

2.9%

1.

6%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

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Education Industry Inquiry Conversion Rates All Programs and Award Levels

2012 2013 2014

5. Conversion Rates

Immature Months

Through September 2013, conversion rates have increased to an average of 2.79% from 2.42% in 2012. §  As Q4 inquiries continue to convert, the rates for 2013 are likely to rise and exceed 2012. §  Overall, the 15% increase in conversions may have offset much of the 13% decline in inquiries.

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the conversion rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.



6. Average Price Per Inquiry

In 2013, the average price per inquiry rose an average of $1.09. The average price-per-lead in January reached $42.42, the highest level in two years.

$42.42

$39.69 $39.76 $40.22 $40.06 $39.71 $40.07 $40.16 $40.08 $40.34 $40.34

$41.05 $39.94

$40.79 $41.61 $41.22

$42.20

$40.18

$41.45 $42.11

$41.67 $41.55

$40.27 $41.13 $42.03

38 39 40 41 42 43

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PP

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Average Price Per Inquiry and YoY Change All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2012 2013

$1.10

$1.86

$1.01

$2.14

$0.47

$1.38 $1.95

$1.59 $1.21

-$0.07 $0.08

$0.40

-$0.50

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

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Avg

. PP

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Average YoY Change