2015 september grayreports - student demand trends

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Educational Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through September 2015

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Who Is Gray?

GrayData

Completions

Enrollment Pricing Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Industry Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings WANTED Analytics

Students Programs Strategy Locations §  Demographic priorities §  Geo-priorities §  Market share

§  City selection §  Location selection §  Relocation analysis §  Consolidation

§  Program selection §  Program development §  Curriculum enhancement §  Market reports

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Pricing §  Outcome improvement

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Investors

Competition (IPEDS)

Program Evaluation System

§  Custom Scoring

§  Scorecards

-  By Program

-  By Market

-  100+ Markets

-  800+ Programs



What is GrayReports?

GrayReports tracks demand for higher education.

§  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. §  Paid subscribers receive custom monthly reports for their markets and programs. §  Paid subscribers also have on-line access to detailed data for their programs and markets.

Over 41 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 800,000 new inquiries in September 2015 Over 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries

Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries



Key Demand Trends and Observations

For the first time since May 2014, year-over-year inquiry volume increased.

1.  September inquiries rose 3% year-over-year. §  Internal/Branded inquiries rose a whopping 14%

§  Inquiries for On-line programs rose 20%; On-ground dropped only 3.5% §  Three of the five largest cities grew

§  Higher-level degrees continued to outperform

2.  September conversion rates beat 2015 norms and may exceed 2014 results. 3.  Price-per-inquiry rose from $43.44 to $45.42. 4.  Channels are shifting quickly.

§  Traditional channels (e.g., inbound phone) fell by double digits §  Social media is booming, up 347%

§  Rumors of PPI’s death are grossly exaggerated—PPI rose 17%

5.  Gray’s analysis of student demand, employment, and competition identified the top 10 programs nationwide:

§  HVAC ranks 4th

§  Electrician ranks 8th



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  High-Potential Programs and Markets

5.  Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

In September, student inquiries for higher education programs increased 3% year-over-year.

§  May 2014 was the last month in which there was year-over-year growth. §  In total, 2015 inquiries have fallen 6% year-over-year. §  September broke this long series of declines.

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015

3% YOY



Branded Inquiries: Overall Results

Branded inquiries (e.g., organic search) rose 14% in September.

§  Year-to-date, branded inquiries for education programs have risen 3%. §  May, June and July results trailed last year. §  August and September were up, and may be the start of a positive trend.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015

14% YOY



1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

3.6% 3.1%

2.0% 2.8% 2.5%

1.8%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%


Education Industry Conversion Rates 2014 2015 Average Immature Conversion Rate

Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates

Conversion rates so far in 2015 are down 0.3% year-over-year—but they are trending up. §  Year to date, the average mature month conversion rate is 3.2% down from 3.5 last year §  All immature months are ahead of the averages for their month. §  July and August are poised to reach last year’s levels.

Immature Months1

2015 Mature Month Average: 3.2%



Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries

In September prices continued to rise, reaching $45.42.

§  In 2015, PPI prices have risen every month, except June. §  Year-to-date average prices for PPI inquiries have risen $1.35 year-over-year. §  In 2015, the average price is $44. §  But, September prices jumped 3%, to approximately $45.50.

$43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.42

$41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94

$44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.41 $44.79

$42.18

$30

$32

$34

$36

$38

$40

$42

$44

$46

$48


Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2014

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.



Agenda





5.  Summary



Inquiries for On-Line Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change In September, inquiries for on-line higher education programs rose 20% year-over-year.

§  Year-to-date, inquiries for on-line programs are now down just 3% year-over-year. §  September marks the first year-over-year increase since April—and the largest increase since December.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

20% YOY



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs

In June, conversions for on-line programs dropped 25%, immature months (Jul-Sept) are trending up.

§  While June fell sharply, August and September are likely to show year-over-year growth.


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

Immature Months1 -25% YOY



Inquiries for On-Ground Programs

Inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs nearly reached last year’s levels.

§  Inquiries for on-ground programs have fallen 10% or more every month since February. §  Year-to-date, student demand for on-ground programs has fallen 12% behind 2014 levels. §  In contrast, September 2015 declined just 3.5%.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

-3.5% YOY



The 2015 decline in conversions for on-ground higher education programs has accelerated. §  June matured 41% behind last year’s levels. §  Excluding immature months (July through September), 2015 is 36% behind 2014 levels.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

Immature Months1

Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs


-41% YOY



Agenda





5.  Summary



Largest Programs: September Growth

Inquiry volumes for Registered Nursing grew much faster than any other large program.

§  Student demand for Registered Nursing jumped 80% in September. §  The inquiry volumes for Health Care Admin rose slightly year-over-year. §  Business Admin, Medical Assisting and Criminal Justice all dropped more than 12% year-over-year.

29%

-25% -20% -32%

-64%

80%

7%

-12% -13% -24%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse.

Health/Health Care Administration/Management.

Business Administration and Management, General.

Medical/Clinical Assistant. Criminal Justice/Police Science.

Demand for Higher Education Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries

Five Largest Programs

2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change



-43% -36% -28% -31%

3%

844%

184% 140% 118% 99%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

Curriculum and Instruction. Educational Leadership and Administration, General.

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder.

Special Education and Teaching, General.

Psychology, General.

Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Programs


The 5 Fastest-Growing Programs in August

In September, all five of the fastest-growers at least doubled their year-over-year inquiry volume.

§  Three of the five programs are in the education sector. §  After a drop in 2014, inquiries for curriculum and instruction programs grew over 800%.

1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012). Minimum of 1,000 inquiries in 2014.



Student Inquiries: Largest Cities

In the five cities with the highest number of inquiries for higher education, volume dropped in September. §  Philadelphia and Atlanta experienced the smallest decline at 18%. §  Los Angeles remains volatile, posting a 27% decline in 2015 compared to an 18% increase in 2014.

-4%

3%

11%

-6%

18%

-18% -18% -20% -20% -27%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA New York, NY Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA

Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries Top Five Cities for Inquiries


Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries

With a 21% surge in inquiries for higher education, Oklahoma City had the fastest inquiry growth in the US.

§  The student demand for higher education jumped over 7% in all five cities. §  Year-over-year, Oklahoma City was the only city of the five to record back-to-back increases.

1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

5%

-29%

-8% -10%

-24%

21% 10% 9% 8% 7%

-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

Oklahoma City, OK New Orleans, LA Las Vegas, NV Houston, TX Tucson, AZ

Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries




-17%

-10%

-8%

-3%

0%

2%

3%

15%

68%

-35% -10% 15% 40% 65%

Associate's

Certificates

On-campus Programs

External Inquiries

PhD

Online Programs

Branded Inquiries

Bachelor's

Master's

Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries 2014 vs. 2015 (July – September)

Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3-Months

Strong growth for graduate degrees is the highlight of the last three months.

§  Demand for Certificate and Associate’s programs were well below average. §  On-ground programs declined 8%, while on-line programs increased 3%. §  Interest in Bachelor’s degrees is up 15%.

Monthly Average



347% 252%

57% 38%

17% -4% -7% -8%

-11% -20% -21% -22%

-30% -36%

-68%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%

Internal: Social Media Branded: All Other Internal Branded: Email Branded: Organic External: PPI External: Affiliate - PPC Branded: Interactive Branded: Website Branded: PPC Branded: Referral External: Affiliate Branded: Display Branded: PPC - Inbound Call Branded: Offline Media Branded: Inbound Phone

Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

Inquiry Volumes by Channel in Trailing 3-Months

Social media, Email and Organic inquiries are far outpacing other channels.



Sustainers vs. Strugglers: Inquiry Volume

For the first time in over 20 months, the strugglers outpaced the sustainers – growing 8% in September 2015 compared to a decline of 3% for the sustainers.

-12% -15% -15% -12%

0%

-3% -13% -16%

-31% -44% -46%

-27%

49% 45% 32%

11% 11% 6%

-2% -8% -3% -3% -7% -5%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%


Sustainers vs. Strugglers Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2014

-15% -11% -9%

-4%

-20%

-12% -14% -8%

8%

-3% -5%

0% 1%

-2%

12% 14% 9%

-3%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%


Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2015

Strugglers

Sustainers



Agenda





5.  Summary



Program Evaluation System

What programs should we “Stop, Start, Sustain,

or Grow?”



High Potential Programs

For Certificate and Associate’s programs, HVAC and Electrician programs made the top 10.

§  In this example, we focused scoring on Certificate and Associate’s programs nationally. §  Over 800 programs received scores ranging from +22 to -30.

Program 1

Program 2

Program 3

Program 5

Program 6

Program 7

Program 9

Program 10

HVAC

Electrician

22

20

19

19

19

19

17

16

16

15



High Potential Program: HVAC Technology/Technician

HVAC scored a 19, with 95th percentile inquiry volumes and completions.



High Potential Markets for HVAC

The Gray Market Evaluation System identifies Charlotte, NC as one of the top 10 cities for HVAC.

Market 1

Market 2

Market 3

Market 5

Market 6

Market 8

Market 9

Market 10

Market 4

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

22

22

22

22

21

21

21

21

21

21

HVAC



Employment Market Research

WANTED Analytics confirms that Charlotte-Gastonia is one of the hardest places to hire HVAC technicians.

HVAC 20 US Cities with Highest Hiring Difficulty



High Potential Program: Electrician

Electrician scored a 16, with strong inquiry volume, completions, job openings, and jobs per graduate.



High Potential Markets for Electrician

Houston, Texas is one of the top 10 markets for an Electrician program.

Market 1

Market 2

Market 3

Market 5

Market 6

Market 7

Market 9

Market 10

Market 4

Houston-The Woodlands TX

26

25

23

23

22

22

22

22

22

21

Electrician



Program Employers

Once attractive programs are identified, we research employers, skills and certifications.

Excerpt from WANTED Skills Table Excerpt from WANTED Employer Table



Agenda




4.  Program Evaluation System

5.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

For the first time since May 2014, year-over-year inquiry volume increased.

1.  September inquiries rose 3% year-over-year. §  Internal/Branded inquiries rose a whopping 14%

§  Inquiries for On-line programs rose 20%; On-ground dropped only 3.5% §  Three of the five largest cities grew

§  Higher-level degrees continued to outperform

2.  September conversion rates beat 2015 norms and may exceed 2014 results. 3.  Price-per-inquiry rose from $43.44 to $45.42. 4.  Channels are shifting quickly.

§  Traditional channels (e.g., inbound phone) fell by double digits §  Social media is booming, up 347%

§  Rumors of PPI’s death are grossly exaggerated—PPI rose 17%

5.  Gray’s analysis of student demand, employment, and competition identified the top 10 programs nationwide:

§  HVAC ranks 4th

§  Electrician ranks 8th

6.  You can accurately evaluate all of your current and potential programs, by campus.



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Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact: Bob Atkins

CEO Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]

617-366-2836