LEV GHG Greenhouse

Gas Reductions

ZEV Technology

Advancement

LEV Criteria Air Quality

Improvements

2015 Update to the Board: Advanced Clean Cars Program

Midterm Review

Diamond Bar, CA October 22, 2015

Advanced Clean Cars

Role of Advanced Clean Cars

2

2020 GHG Emission

Target

2050 GHG Emission

Target

Ozone and PM2.5

Attainment

Stable Global Climate

Healthy Air Quality

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

LEV III – Criteria and GHG: Improving Conventional

Vehicle Technology

ZEV Program: Accelerating Advanced

Technology Development

Advanced Clean Cars II?? Technology Commercialization

and Fleet Transformation

100% ZEV Sales by 2050

2030 GHG Emission

Target

70 ppb 8-hr Ozone Attainment

Maintain Clean Air Act Attainment

75 ppb 8-hr Ozone Attainment

Mobile Source Modeling Re-affirms Need for ZEVs

Required to average

60% eVMT to meet targets

GHG (with Federal Partners) Load and mass reduction studies

Testing and benchmarking of advanced engines and drivetrains

Review of market acceptance of emerging GHG technologies

Teardowns of new vehicle technologies

ZEV Review ZEV credit analysis

Technology assessment

Role of PHEVs/OEM Data Analysis

Consumer awareness and attitudes

Infrastructure Assessment

1 mg/mi PM Standard Measurement feasibility Vehicle feasibility and testing

ARB’s Midterm Review

4

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Midterm Review Timeline

2014 2015 2016 2020 2017 2018 2019

National GHG Joint Technical

Report

Joint Decision on appropriateness of National standards

[Due No Later than April 1]

PM Measurement

Capability Update

ZEV Infrastructure

Update

5

Full CA Midterm Review

Presented

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

ARB

EPA/ NHTSA/ARB

LEV-GHG Review Status

• Manufacturers are over-complying with current GHG standards

• Initial findings show manufacturers on track to comply with future standards – NAS Committee Report concluded

compliance with future standards is feasible – ARB research shows road load reduction can

contribute substantially (powertrain/engine improvements contribute remainder)

6

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

CA vs. US Compliance with One National Program for GHG

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

US CA

CO

2-eq

uiv

gram

s/m

ile

Final Compliance Off-Cycle CreditsFederal Standard

MY 2012 MY 2013 Standards calculated based on sales from the six large volume manufacturers subject to CA GHG regulations for MY 2012-2013 including credits.

US CA

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Tailpipe-only Emissions

Over-compliance

2015 NAS CAFE Study Conclusions

• “The committee found the analysis conducted by NHTSA and EPA in their development of the 2017-2025 standards to be thorough and of high caliber on the whole.”

• “Most of the vehicles use spark-ignition gasoline engines and demonstrate the potential for conventional technologies to meet these standards.”

• Acknowledged the California ZEV regulation in driving higher ZEV volumes than would be likely required through the GHG tailpipe and fuel economy standards alone.

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

GHG

ZEV

Criteria ARB Research Contract on Road Load Reduction Potential

9

263

236

5 5

7

10

220

225

230

235

240

245

250

255

260

265

270

BaselineMY 2014

ImprovedAerodynamics

+ ReducedTire RollingResistance

+ MassReduction

+ EngineResizing/

Optimization

Final

Tailp

ipe

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(g/m

i)

Vehicle Load Scenario

Applying 2014 best-in-class of these technologies to all vehicles

could yield ~25% of needed reductions for 2025 requirements

ZEV Review Status

• Credits will continue to provide flexibility for manufacturers’ compliance, but requirements continue to push ZEV commercialization

• Pure ZEV sales are increasing • Consumers pleased with PEV decision but

many willing to pay for more electric range • Vehicle usage data show eVMT to be

highly variable, even for same vehicle type 10

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

What is the status of ZEV Credits?

11

Assuming current sales levels, and using all credits as quickly as possible, manufacturers would deplete credit banks after 2021 MY compliance

CA

+ S

177

Ann

ual R

equi

rem

ents

(in

Vehi

cles

) GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Minimum Future ZEV Sales

Minimum Future PHEV Sales ZEVs

PHEVs

Current ZEV Sales

Current PHEV Sales

Scenario 1

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202512

Minimum Future PHEV Sales

Minimum Future ZEV Sales

ZEVs

PHEVs

Manufacturers could supplement compliance with the ZEV requirement through 2025 with banked credits, assuming increasing sales

GHG

ZEV

Criteria C

A +

S17

7 A

nnua

l Req

uire

men

ts (i

n Ve

hicl

es)

Current ZEV Sales

Current PHEV Sales

What is the status of ZEV Credits?

Scenario 2

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 2015

*Projected

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

ZEV

+ PH

EV M

arke

t Sha

re

Size of State's Light-Duty Vehicle Market (Thousands)

Bubbles scaled to annual new

ZEVs+PHEVs.

Trends in California and S177 ZEV States

13

Source: IHS Automotive, Polk new vehicle registrations for CYE2010-14. *2015 projections based on ARB calculations, using IHS Automotive, Polk new vehicle registrations for January 2015 through August 2015.

S177 ZEV States

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

CA

CA

CA

CA

CA

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 todate

ZEV+

PHEV

Sha

re

of T

otal

Lig

ht-D

uty

Vehi

cle

Sale

s BMWCadillacChevroletFiatFordHondaHyundaiKiaMercedes-BenzMitsubishiNissanSmartcarTeslaToyotaVolkswagenZEVsZEVs+PHEVs

CA 2015 ZEV Market Growth Outpacing PHEVs

14 Source: IHS Automotive, Polk new vehicle registrations for CY2010-2015 as of August 2015.

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

ZEVs and PHEVs

ZEVs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mod

el O

fferin

gs

New PHEVPHEVBEVxBEVFCV

Consumer ZEV Choices Continue to Expand

15

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Expected Releases in Late 2015

Driver Satisfaction High for Both BEV and PHEVs

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Definitely No Probably No Probably Yes Definitely Yes

“Would you recommend your PEV to someone you know looking for a new

car?”

BEV (n=3405)PHEV (n=3086)

16

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Source: Ownership Experience Survey of CVRP Recipients, April-May 2015.

PEV Drivers Likely to Buy Again

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

FCEV BEV PHEV HEV ICE Diesel OtherStated Hypothetical Replacement Vehicle Technology

“If you suddenly needed to replace your PEV tomorrow, what kind of vehicle do you

think you would get?”

BEV (n=3456)PHEV (n=3055)

Current Vehicle Technology

17

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Source: Ownership Experience Survey of CVRP Recipients, April-May 2015.

Both BEV and PHEV Drivers Want More e-Range

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Give upPower for

Range

Give upRange for

Power

Give upRange for

Money

Pay forRange

Pay forSize

Pay forFaster

Charging

Pay forWirelessCharging

NoChanges

Other

“If you could, how would you change your PEV?”

BEV (n=3436)PHEV (n=3145)

18

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Respondents able to choose more than one. Totals will sum to more than 100%. Source: Ownership Experience Survey of CVRP Recipients, April-May 2015.

2012 Advanced Clean Car Staff

Report Projected Range

Nykvist and Nilson, 2015

AABC Tesla Battery Report, 2014

Chevrolet Bolt Announcement, 2015

DOE 2022 Target

$50

$150

$250

$350

$450

$550

$650

$750

Bat

tery

Cos

t ($/

kWh)

Projected Battery Cost for 2018

Battery Costs Falling Faster Than Expected

19

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Potential Pack Cost Range

Nykvist and Nilson, Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles, March 23, 2015, http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html Anderman, The Tesla Battery Report, November 12, 2014, https://www.advancedautobat.com/industry-reports/2014-Tesla-report/Extract-from-the-Tesla-battery-report.pdf Chevrolet Bolt Announcement, October 2, 2015, http://www.hybridcars.com/gm-ev-battery-cells-down-to-145kwh-and-still-falling/ DOE 2022 Target, January 31, 2013, http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/02/f8/eveverywhere_blueprint.pdf

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

% e

lect

ric V

ehic

le M

iles

Trav

eled

(eVM

T)

Projected Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus EV

Honda Fit EV

Honda Accord Plug-In

Toyota Prius Plug-In

Ford Fusion Energi

Ford C-MAX Energi

PEV eVMT Distribution Wide eVMT variability across PEV platforms,

design, drivers, charging usage

20

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Ford Fusion Energi

Ford C-Max Energi

Honda Accord Plug-In

Toyota Prius Plug-In

84

76

82

13

11

20

20

E-Range

Ford Focus EV

Nissan Leaf Honda Fit EV

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

% e

lect

ric V

ehic

le M

iles

Trav

eled

(eVM

T)

Projected Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

E-Range

Tesla Model S 208-270

Nissan Leaf 81

Ford Focus EV 76

Honda Fit 82

Honda Accord Plug-In 13

Toyota Prius Plug-In 11

Ford Fusion Energi 20

Ford C-MAX Energi 20

PEV eVMT Distribution Wide eVMT variability across PEV platforms,

design, drivers, charging usage

21

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

Ford Fusion Energi

Ford C-Max Energi

Honda Accord Plug-In

Toyota Prius Plug-In

Ford Focus EV

Nissan Leaf Tesla Model S Honda Fit EV

Summary and Next Steps

2014 2015 2016 2020 2018 2019 2017

National GHG Joint Technical

Report

Joint Decision on appropriateness of National standards

[Due No Later than April 1]

PM Measurement

Capability Update

ZEV Infrastructure

Update

22

Full CA Midterm Review

Presented

ACC Technical

Symposium

• On track to come back to the Board by the end of 2016 with California’s full midterm review

• 2016 ACC Technical Symposium (September)

GHG

ZEV

Criteria

ARB

EPA/ NHTSA/ARB