2010 midterm election
DESCRIPTION
2010 Midterm Election. What happened?. 2010 Midterm. 60+ GOP seat gain in US House 6 Seat GOP Gain in US Senate 11 state leg. Changed GOP; 7 Governors to GOP. RESULTS. 2010 Midterm. How interpret? Mandate for GOP programs? Referendum on Obama? Voters looking back in anger at economy?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2010 Midterm Election2010 Midterm ElectionWhat happened?
2010 Midterm2010 Midterm
RESULTS
60+ GOP seat gain in US House
6 Seat GOP Gain in US Senate
11 state leg. Changed GOP; 7 Governors to GOP
2010 Midterm2010 Midterm
What trends?
Does the Tea Party really exist?
How interpret?
◦Mandate for GOP programs?
◦Referendum on Obama?
◦Voters looking back in anger at economy?
Electoral context different in Washington
Obama net negative nationally
Obama net positive in WA, CA, OR
Electoral context different in Washington
Republican Favorability near par w/ Dems nationally
Republicans viewed far less favorably than Dems on West Coast
Electoral context different in Washington
Your vote express support for Obama, opposition to Obama, or Obama not a factor
Graph shows “support Obama” + “not a factor” as No
The economy, stupid. And health care. Outside of the west.
Economy dominant everywhere
Huge increase over 2006
Any year, voters punish incumbents
Voter evaluations of the economyVoter evaluations of the economy
2010
15% family situation “better” (60% Dem)
9% natl economy “excellent” or “good” (77% Dem)
37% economy “poor” (68% GOP)
2006
30% family situation “better” (71% GOP)
49% natl economy “excellent” or “good” (70% GOP)
13% economy “poor” (85% Dem)
Tea PartyTea Party
No such thing as a Tea PartyNo such thing as a Tea Party
Republicans
◦92% strong disapprove Congress
◦94% vote GOP in House races
◦13% blame Bush for economy
◦Older, male, educated, affluent, registered GOP
“Tea Party”
◦90% strong disapprove Congress
◦92%◦5% blame Bush for
economy◦Older, male, affluent,
registered GOP◦Hands of social
programs
No such thing as a Tea PartyNo such thing as a Tea Party
Tea Party (?) 2010
◦ Older, affluent(-ish) voters angry at Obama about economy
◦ 12% under 30; 14% 30-39 (majority D)
◦ Only 3% first time voters 45% D, 43% R
2006, 2008
◦ Younger, less affluent voters angry at Bush about economy
◦ 18% under 30; 18% 30-39 (majority D)
◦ 11% first time voters in 2008 69% D, 30% R
Mandate?
Most important issue facing the country today?
Afghanistan, immigration in single digits
Mandate?
What is the highest priority for the new Congress?
40% “reduce deficit” (65% R)
37% “spend to create jobs” (68% D)
Seat Gain/Loss For President's Party in US House
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
19301932193419361938194019421944194619481950195219541956195819601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010
Surge and Decline: President’s party gain ‘on year,’ Lose in midterm. Avg= 24 seat loss in midterm
It Takes Seats to Lose Seats: 2010 looks like 1994, 1974,1946, 1938…. (but worse)
Public opinion after elections2010 weakest of weak mandates
Public opinion after elections2010 less about Obama than 1994 about Clinton, 2006 about Bush
What is Responsible for Turnover of Congress?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2006 1994
Support ChallengerParty ProgramsOppose IncumbentParty ProgramsDissapproval ofPresident
2010 Midterm2010 MidtermWhy surge and decline?
◦Presidential elections higher turnout
◦Many voters mobilized by presidential elections stay home 2 years later
2010 ->40% 88 million2008 ->62% 133 million2006 ->40% 86 million2004 ->60% 124 million2002 ->40% 80 million2000 ->54% 107 million1998 ->38% 75 million
Not many voters Not many voters changing their votes…changing their votes…it’s who shows upit’s who shows up
Marginal Dems Marginal Dems LostLost
Marginal seats = moderates
Dem more ‘cohesive’
GOP caucus also?
Greater polarization
Reapportionment: Dividing the losses
No change of party control state leg:
NV, UT, AZ, TX, FL, GA, SC
GOP win control of state leg:
OH, PA, MI, WI, NC, MN, IN, AL, MT (1)
GOP Gains larger than ‘expected’GOP Gains larger than ‘expected’
Forecasting models Under-predicted 2010 GOP gains
Why?
Economy, presidential approval, ‘generic ballot’ not enough◦ Turnout?◦ fundraising?
A curious bit about pollingRepublican vote over-estimated in close Senate races
How did 2010 play out West?How did 2010 play out West?
2010 Midterm in US 2010 Midterm in WA
The Economy East of Rockies, huge
GOP gains +6 GOP US Senate +55 GOP US House
Limited referendum on Obama Ltd. angst about health
care
The Economy◦ West of the Rockies,
different story No Senate change +6 GOP US House
◦ Referendum on economy Not much care about
health care
Trends in WashingtonEvidence of slight GOP gain in Party Identification
GOP Gains in WA State Leg.Not on par with 1994
Steady decline in voter approvalWashington Poll data
Trends in WA Voters' Opinions: 2006-2010
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%Approve Gov%Approve Leg%Right Track
Decline of economy, rise of issueWashington Poll data…several D seats 2006 due to Iraq
Least popular, most popularWashington Poll, 2010….few have heard of McKenna
What about 2012?What about 2012?
Economic Recovery No Recovery
Presidents clobbered in midterm who won
◦ FDR 1940, ‘44◦ Truman 1948◦ Reagan 1984◦ Clinton 1996
Presidents (party) who lost
◦ IKE/GOP 1960◦ LBJ/Dems 1968◦ Carter/Dems 1980◦ Bush I 1992
2010 Midterm: An Outlier?2010 Midterm: An Outlier?
Conclusions◦Predictable, but
bigger shift than ‘expected?’
◦Why so big? No recovery Deep recession Dems went for HC,
not stimulus Obama factor (?)
Not mentioned
◦Spending Citizen’s United
◦WA ballot measures
◦Whatcom County, 42nd LD.