20 Red Hot Angles To

Create Your Own Horse Racing Betting Systems

By

Matt Bisogno

www.HorseRacingExperts.co.uk

Introduction, and Foreword .......................................................................................3 1. The Betting Market ................................................................................................4 2. Official Handicap Ratings......................................................................................7 3. Speed Ratings.........................................................................................................9 4. Weight..................................................................................................................11 5. Sex........................................................................................................................13 6. Margins of Victory / Defeat .................................................................................14 7. Trainers ................................................................................................................16 8. Jockeys.................................................................................................................19 9. The Going ............................................................................................................21 10. The Track ...........................................................................................................24 11. Stalls Position.....................................................................................................25 12. Race Class..........................................................................................................26 13. Pace....................................................................................................................28 14. Breeding.............................................................................................................29 15. Juveniles.............................................................................................................30 16. Maiden Races.....................................................................................................31 17. Dosage Index .....................................................................................................32 18. Profiling .............................................................................................................33 19. The Tote .............................................................................................................35 20. Other People’s Systems! ....................................................................................36 Conclusions..............................................................................................................37

Introduction, and Foreword Hi, and welcome to Horse Racing Experts! Firstly, congratulations on taking the exciting and hugely profitable first step towards creating your own horse racing betting system (or systems). The benefits of building your own approaches to betting are too numerous to mention. However, some of the key benefits you’ll enjoy are: - Unique information not available anywhere else - Betting strategies that specifically suit your needs - Increased confidence in your betting - The possibility to make further profits by sharing your system with others One of the toughest (if not the toughest) part of creating your own system is finding a starting point, or an angle. We here at Horse Racing Experts know this which is why, in this supplementary manual, you’ll find twenty different angles from which you might decide to begin your research. Of course, as you start to play with some of these angles, you’ll quickly think of your own ideas, which will in turn throw up still more possible angles. The trick is to ‘fuse’ more than one angle, to find either positive or negative sub-trends that lend themselves to systematic betting. This will become much clearer as you read through these pages. When we did the group exercise on this, it was astonishing how many differing entry points the teams came up with. I’m sure you’ll have a lot of fun devising your very own system angles but, to get you started, I’ve included twenty that I’ve considered and / or used in this guide. Enjoy!

Matt Bisogno www.HorseRacingExperts.co.uk

1. The Betting Market This is an obvious place to start, as many people believe the betting market to be the single most important factor in determining the outcome of a race. Certainly, it’s true that – on average – about a third of all favourites win and, as you descend down the market, the chances of finding the winner diminish. The betting market may well be the best indicator of who’s likely to win, but this in itself is not sufficient for us to make a profit. The problem is that market position is only one element, and market price is somewhat more important where profits are concerned. For instance, although the favourite wins on average one in three races, backing favourites blindly will lose you around 6.31% of your stake money.

That however, is a pretty good place to start looking for a betting system. To exemplify this, if you backed favourites who were aged two to four years old, and who were male, your loss would reduce to just 3.78%, and you’d probably be able to turn a profit betting on Betfair.

Taking that a step further, and concentrating only on those 2-4 year old male favourites that ran in big field races (17+ runners), and you’d actually have turned a profit of 8.57% at SP. You could add at least five per cent to this if using the betting exchanges.

Obviously, taking a converse view and looking at laying systems, you might like to consider the inverse of the above. That is, female favourites, aged five or older, and racing in small fields (10 runners or less). These returned a loss of a whopping 21.53% loss on stakes from 2004-8 (flat only).

So we can clearly see that the betting market is a great place to start when researching racing systems.

2. Official Handicap Ratings The handicapper has the undisputed toughest job in horse racing. His task is to assign a rating to every single horse that runs in the UK in three or more races. To make his task ever more difficult, trainers such as Sir Mark Prescott and Luca Cumani persistently and notoriously run their horses over inadequate distances, in order to secure a lenient rating. Whilst this makes the job of handicapping very tricky, it presents opportunities for systems analysts to make money. For instance, taking Sir Mark’s horses: if we simply backed every horse on their fourth start (i.e. first in a handicap) when stepping up 25% or more in distance (e.g. six furlongs to a mile or more), we’d have secured a profit of 8.26% at SP. A different approach to handicap ratings is to acknowledge the pre-eminence of the top-weighted (and therefore top-rated) horse in the race.

The top weighted horse in handicaps wins 12.51% of the time, or one in every eight races. From there, it is a sliding scale down to 10th+ in the weights, where horses win just one in twenty times. Of course, that in itself is not enough to secure you a profit, but it makes an excellent place to begin your research.

For instance, if you’d only looked at top weights in handicaps, who were carrying less weight than last time, and went off 7/2 or shorter, you’d have made a profit:

3. Speed Ratings Every race is won by the fastest horse in that race on the day, obviously. However, it doesn’t necessarily follow that the horse who has been historically fastest will win today’s event. This is for two reasons:

1. A horse may run faster today than any horse in the race has run before (especially if there are a number of lightly raced horses in the race).

2. The race may be run slowly, such that it is not a true test of speed, aside from the closing stages. In this case, a horse who is well positioned could ‘steal’ the race from the front rank.

Speed rating information is very powerful nonetheless, in the right context. So, how do we use speed ratings profitably? As ever, we have options to back or to lay, and again as always, they are two halves of the same whole. It follows that a fast horse can only take advantage of his/her speed in a fast run race. For example, in a 1,500m athletics race, the world leader for the year (i.e. fastest runner that year) would normally win a race where there were pacemakers in the field (e.g. a Grand Prix meeting). However, in a Championship event like the Olympics, where there are no pacemakers, it is possible for the race to become tactical and for the fastest athletes to be brought down to the level of lower class runners as a result of a mediocre pace being set. The same is true in horse racing. Typically, in shorter distance races, there is less chance of a false pace. Interestingly, it is also usually the case that all weather races up to around a mile and a quarter and almost always ‘truly run’. That is, they are usually run at a solid end to end gallop. So, put simply, if we can be confident that a race will be fast run, we should back the fastest horse(s) in the race, all other things (ground, draw, class, etc) being equal. Conversely, if we think there will be a slow pace, then it may be a good idea to lay fast horses near the top of the market, as the race will probably not play out in a way that enables them to use their superior speed. To find out if a race will be quickly or slowly run, we need to look at the previous form of the runners. We’re looking for two or more front runners in the race, who are likely to contest the lead, thereby ensuring that all the other horses are carried along by the fast pace. These horses usually ‘cut each other’s throats’, in racing parlance. This means by

using up so much energy early, they concede their chance of winning. Obviously, a front-running speed horse who is likely to be taken on for the lead will struggle to last home. But a speed horse who likes to sit just off the pace against multiple front-running types is normally a very solid wager. The table below may help clarify: # of Front Runners Speed Horse’s Style Best Betting Approach 1 Front Runner Back (uncontested lead) 1 Stalks Pace No bet 2 Front Runner No bet 2 Stalks Pace Back 3+ Front Runner Lay (speed duel on front) 3+ Stalks Pace Back As you’ll notice, I only refer to the running styles of front runners or horses that race close to the pace. This is because, whilst hold up horses do win, they are often the type to look ‘unlucky’ in races. These types of animal can end up costing you a lot of money!

4. Weight Weight and its effects on the performance of horses, and therefore the outcomes of races, is a subject that has excited a lot of people in recent years. There are many who believe that weight has little or no bearing on the outcome of a race and, of course (because nothing in horse racing is straightforward), those who believe in the absolute methodology of collateral form, and ‘pounds and lengths’. My personal opinion is that neither can be completely correct and yet both are partly valid. No, I’m not being deliberately obstreperous. Rather, I believe that a small weight change has no bearing on the performance of a horse, but a large weight change (say seven pounds or more) will begin to impact performance. So how do we use this in system terms? Well, we can examine the manner in which the betting market reacts to horses whose performances (positive or negative) have led to significant weight changes. In fact, if we followed favourites in handicap races (7/2 or shorter), who were carrying 8lbs or less in additional weight, we’d see that they very nearly break even, losing just 3.37% of stakes:

This comes down to less than 2% if we exclude female horses. So, whilst not profitable to SP (though highly likely profitable on the betting exchanges), we have the foundation of a betting approach here. Another way to consider weight is in conjunction with ground conditions. It stands to reason that logically that horses lugging bigger weights will struggle on muddier terrain. But is this borne out in the betting? Here is the chart for top-weighted favourites (National Hunt) by going:

We can see that on heavy ground, they lost almost 32% of stakes, whereas on good to firm or quicker, these types lost just 10.7% of the time. Again, not profitable in or of itself, but a starting point for a system. Alternatively, you might choose simply to lay top-weighted favourites over jumps when the going is heavy.

5. Sex As I’ve already touched on, the sex of a horse can have a bearing on races. Before I get attacked by the gender equality unit, let me explain myself. At the highest level, the physiological superiority of males means females have it all to do to compete. That is not to say that they cannot win, and indeed exceptional fillies do win championship races (for instance, Rachel Alexander in the US). However, for the most part, the top level girls will be competing against each other. As we descend the class scale, some interesting things happen. Take a look at this comparison of the genders by class: (Females to the left, males on the right)

We can see that, outside of Group 1 class, the male strike rate is consistently higher, and losses to level stakes are consistently lower. Incidentally, the reason for the Group 1 anomaly is due to the disproportionate number of female only Group 1 races, compared with other classes of race. Quite simply, the boys win more often than the girls, and the girls lose more often than the boys. This is something I almost always factor into flat racing systems (including all weather).

6. Margins of Victory / Defeat Our task when constructing a betting system is to outfox the general public, as represented by the betting market and, therefore, the available odds. One of the best ways to do this is to take a contrarian view on things. What I mean by this is that we should take evidence that the masses believe to be material when trying to establish the outcome of a race, and place our own weighting on that evidence (either higher, lower, or the same). Where our weighting is lower or higher than that of the masses, we have an opportunity. One such area where the general public seem to overestimate the importance of evidence is that of margins of victory or defeat. Put simply, very often facile winners are over bet next time out, and well-beaten horses are under bet next time out. Let’s take a look at this. Firstly, chase favourites who failed to finish last time and had a break of at least a month (31 days) since that run:

This is a group of favourites that the general betting public turns its back on, due to the presence of a letter rather than a number in the form column for its last run. And

yet, these horses win 16% more often than those under the same circumstances that completed last time out! Now let’s take a look at the flip side. Flat race favourites who won last time out and were off the track more than a month:

A strike rate significantly lower than our non-finishing chasers, and a consistent year on year loss to level stakes. Here is a sample of data with the makings of a laying system.

7. Trainers Creating systems around trainer angles has a very special place in my heart, as it’s where all of this started for me. I’d always felt that trainers, being creatures of habit like everybody else, probably had certain repeatable cycles in their training methods. And I was further convinced that they would go to certain tracks specifically with certain types of horse. My research with TrainerTrackStats (or TTS, for short, now successfully owned and published by Gavin Priestley) proved unequivocally that this was the case. TTS has sold over 2,000 copies and is now in its fourth year. In the preceding three seasons, it has manage to make over 50 points profit each season, showing it to be one of the best and most reliable services available. Let me give you a quick résumé of how TTS is researched. Firstly, we identify the top 300 trainers in Racing Post for the previous season, thus:

From this list, we then remove all those who had less than ten winners last season, and we end up with around half that number. Then we analyse all the potentially profitable tracks, as shown on the following page. [Note that a lot of these will start off being unprofitable with the overall figures, and it’s only when we delve more deeply that we find sub-trends of profitability.]

The next stage is to review the ‘under the covers’ story for each combination. Let’s take Oliver Sherwood at Ludlow as an example. The overall research shows the following:

Six winners from 36 runners is an acceptable enough strike rate, but it’s not profitable. However, the deeper analysis revealed that if we focused on his younger stayers, the world looked a good bit more lucrative:

All of Oliver Sherwood’s horses could be confidently dismissed, as none of the other 21 horses he ran here had won. Of course, with this approach, sometimes we have to project somewhat from a smaller than desirable sample of data. But, with the approach TTS takes, where there are a number of trainers at most tracks, it has been proven to be well worth following overall.

8. Jockeys It is perfectly possible to take a similar approach with jockeys, as to trainers. However, although there are definite jockey angles, a track based one may be quite difficult to quantify, simply because so many of the variables are outside of the jockey’s control. That said, there’s no doubt that, for instance, certain jockeys form profitable allegiances with certain trainers, or that some jockeys ride certain tracks much better than their colleagues. One of the best approaches to jockey based systematic betting may be to oppose certain ‘over bet’ pilots. Let’s take Tony McCoy, the greatest jockey of our time, and arguably ever. As brilliant a rider as he undoubtedly is, this information is known by anyone and everyone who’s ever struck a wager on jumps racing. Consequently, it is heavily factored into the price of any horse he climbs aboard. Looking at all of McCoy’s mounts that started 7/2 or shorter reveals the following:

A loss of 14% of stakes would have been suffered if backing McCoy blindly. Given that his horses go off at roughly 5% over SP on the betting exchanges, a profit of around 4% could have been secured by laying them, even after allowing for commissions. On the other hand, let’s take a look at Noel Fehily, McCoy’s deputy at the Jonjo O’Neill yard:

A whopping 15%+ profit would have been secured by following his horses when sent off at 7/2 or shorter, and that’s without factoring in the near 10% above SP they’re sent off at on Betfair. Take out commissions, and that alone gives you 20% return on your money!

9. The Going There is absolutely no doubt that one of the pre-eminent factors in the outcome of horse races is the ability of a horse to handle the going conditions. In the UK, conditions vary from road-like ‘firm’ to extremely muddy ‘heavy’ descriptions. And this is before we even think about the presence of the all weather surfaces, which bear little to no relation to their turf counterparts (a fact often overlooked by the media, and other punters, when placing a bet). Let’s look, for example, at horses that finished in the first three on all weather last time and now tackle a turf surface (having never won on turf before):

Despite ostensibly having a form chance (the number 1, 2 or 3 next to their name for their last run), these horses lost a thumping 26.5% of stakes. In fact, if we narrow it down to just those horses sent off at evens to 7/2 (where the betting exchange lay odds are closest to the actual on course odds), we still see the makings of a cracking little lay system:

Another angle to consider when looking at the effect of the going is performance of the favourite on various surfaces:

We can see that on the flat, favourites lose a lot more when the ground is heavy. So, again, this is a great starting point for a laying system.

10. The Track In the US and many other countries, there is a great deal of homogeny between race tracks. That is, they’re pretty much all ovals, the surface is the same or similar, they race in the same direction, and they’re broadly the same distance. Here, and in Ireland, there is a glorious diversity of course constitution that again lends itself to the systematic bettor. In simple terms, some horses are ‘built’ to race on certain tracks. For example, Chester is a very tight almost circular course, where the runners are turning almost the whole way round. This very much suits nippy, agile, smaller horses; and, consequently, disadvantages longer, bigger-striding animals. The converse is true at a track like Chepstow, where the big gangly gallopers hold sway. With a little research, it is possible to put together a ‘profile’ for each race distance at each track. You’ll find rudimentary information on course constitutions on my website at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/uk-race-courses/

11. Stalls Position Obviously, only relevant on the flat, as stalls are not used over jumps, the draw position of a horse can have a significant bearing on how races pan out. However, a note of caution should be sounded here. There is rarely a year passes when a subset of racecourses amend their drainage system, re-lay their racing surface, or otherwise tamper with punters’ expectations of how the draw will play out. It is certainly possible to identify profitable trends within the various course and distance combinations at some tracks. For instance, low drawn horses continue to hold a significant advantage in five and six furlong sprints at Chester. Despite the fact that this is very widely held knowledge, profits are still available from wagering those drawn close to the strongly favoured inside rail. A number of traditional draw biases do seem to have been eroded in recent seasons, and especially this season (2009). Notable cases of this erosion include, but are not limited to, Beverley (high at less than a mile) and Thirsk (high over six furlongs). In summary, I counsel extreme caution when seeking systematic tools based on the respective draw positions of horses. This information can change, even on a meeting to meeting basis. That said, for those who are prepared to dedicate themselves to the task, there are likely to be some very healthy profits at which to pitch.

12. Race Class Another favourite angle of mine is class. The fact is horses all have class thresholds. Think about it like this: what is the one thing that you’re best at it? Now consider how you’d fare against the people in your family at that thing. You’d probably be the best, right? But what if you were comparing with the best people in your street? You might well still be the best. Or your town? Still the best? What about your country? At some point, you’d reach a level where you weren’t the best at that thing any more. (It’s ok, there’s no crime in it. I still remember the day when I realised I wasn’t going to make it as a footballer – long story, and for another day!) My point here is that horses are the same. For most horses, apart from the very best and worst animals, there is a level at which they’re competitive, and there is a ceiling beyond which they cannot win. This lends itself very well to system creation. Within class, let’s take a look at two and three year old horses (male only) dropping two or more levels in class from their last run, from the first three in the betting, and beaten six lengths or more last time:

Although a small loss last season is a worry, this simple example demonstrates how easily the market overlooks horses that were well beaten when outclassed last time out, and now race in their ‘right’ grade. There are also opportunities to review the performance of horses that won last time out and are now up in grade. For example, two and three year old males that have been raised one or two grades since winning last time, and are now racing in a conditions or Group race:

That’s another excellent little class-based system.

13. Pace Pace is one of those tricky concepts to quantify here in the UK. This is largely because, unlike in the States and other places, there is a real dearth of sectional timings. For those of you who don’t know, sectional timings are the interim stopwatch times for races. In the USA, they calculate the sectional time every two furlongs (or quarter mile) from the start of the race, and you can see after 23 seconds or so whilst watching a race whether the horses in front have gone off too fast. Here in UK, such timings are allegedly available but have not been published in the racing press. It’s likely that this will change in the near future but, for now, it presents a challenge to those who want to try to create a system based on pace angles. As I said in the speed ratings section, there are certain things to look out for when reviewing a race, and they form a method at least, if not a system. To recap, here’s the table I presented in that section: # of Front Runners Speed Horse’s Style Best Betting Approach 1 Front Runner Back (uncontested lead) 1 Stalks Pace No bet 2 Front Runner No bet 2 Stalks Pace Back 3+ Front Runner Lay (speed duel on front) 3+ Stalks Pace Back The method of looking at pace angles has been written about a great deal by excellent US authors, such as Tom Brohamer. And it is much more than just the ‘shape’ of the race, as outlined above. I have been unable to find sectional times for races anywhere on the internet so, for now, any systematic approach would be limited to working out whether the race was likely to be quickly or slowly run and, consequently, which horse(s) is best placed to take advantage of that.

14. Breeding If pace is a little ethereal and difficult to pin down from a systems perspective, then breeding is an area of horse race analysis that is ripe for analysis. Obviously, breeding is a strong influence on the trip that a horse is likely to be most effective at. In some instances, this one element of data (race distance) in relation to a sire is sufficient to record a profit. Take for instance the performance of Pivotal’s progeny over 5f. (For this example, I’ve actually limited it to 2-5 year olds:

A mind-boggling 55% profit on investment, just for blindly backing 2-5yo offspring of Pivotal over the minimum trip. Other angles for consideration here would include preferences of progeny for specific ground conditions, course constitutions, and obstacles (in National Hunt racing).

15. Juveniles As with everything in life, the more you do something, the better you get at it. This is as true for creating your own racing systems as it is for immature race horses. I am of course talking about two year old horses, which are a rich seam of systematic gold just waiting to be mined. It is clear that horses that have had a race will be more experienced than those which are stepping onto the track for the first time. But how does this convert to profit? In the below example, we’re looking at 2yo colts on their second start, having finished 5th or worse on debut; at the top end of the market (15/2 or shorter), and now running 8-31 days after that debut, in the months of April to September (the advantages of experience are somewhat nullified at the end of the season when the best 2yo’s are given a run by top trainers):

A very healthy one in four strike rate, and 15% return on investment. Other angles for 2yo’s that you might want to explore is the impact of weight (especially in nurseries); increasing in race distance; and how they perform in various race types.

16. Maiden Races Maiden races are specifically for horses who have never won a race, and they are usually the starting point for any horse entering the racing fraternity. Consequently, there is often a much wider array of talent than in non-maiden races. For instance, in selling races, you’ll usually only find low ability horses; in handicaps, the horses are grouped together by ability; and in Group races the horses are normally very high class. Maiden races are the only ones where you might find all of these ability levels competing against each other! So how can we profit from that? Let’s consider the case of horses stepping up in trip after a break (this might often be 3yo’s stepping up in trip at the start of a season, having been outpaced as a 2yo at shorter distances – usually bred to be better over further). So, 3yo colts running in one mile plus maiden races, from the first three in the betting, and having been off the track for 80 days or more:

Material factors for maidens are distance, class, and last time out performance.

17. Dosage Index The Dosage Index was created by Dr Steven Roman, an eminent American racing scholar, and pedigree student. The objectives of dosage indices are to establish the most favourable distance for a horse, based on its breeding. Specifically, the five genetic aptitudes of horses – Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, and Professional – create a continuum from speed to stamina, with Brilliant being the fastest, and Professional the most stamina-laden. The dosage figures are calculated according to these aptitudes as they appear in the last four generations of a horse’s male lineage. Doctor Roman famously predicted several long shot winners of the Kentucky Derby in the 80’s and 90’s by ‘outing’ the favourites as dubious stayers over the ten furlong trip. So, to create a Dosage Profile for a horse, one would look at the sire, grand sire, great grand sire, and great great grand sire, and sum each of five genetic aptitudes as accumulated across these four generations of heritage. Each preceding generation is attributed a weighting of half the previous weighting, such that the sire has 8, grand sire 4, great grand sire 2, and great great grand sire 1. Thus, a figure such as 7-5-9-1-2 might be established, meaning the horse is likely to be a talented speedster, but unlikely to be effective over longer races. There are table for what are known as ‘chef-de-race’ sires, notably on Dr Roman’s own website, which you can access here: http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/chefs.htm In fact, this entire website is worthy of attention for the more scholastic amongst you… http://www.chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm It’s an absolutely fascinating mine of information and, for the scientific enthusiast, there’s a lot to get excited about!

18. Profiling Although time consuming, and therefore not to everybody’s tastes, horse profiling is an excellent way to understand the optimum time to place a bet on certain horses. The approach that profiling takes is to ignore the other runners in a race and, instead, concentrate on the factors that specific horses require to be at their best. David Peat’s excellent horse profiling manuals demonstrate this notably. Here’s an example of a horse called Just Lille: JUST LILLE (IRE) 6-y-o b m (Mrs A Duffield, Constable Burton, N Yorks) 546113800711115326/21200- Breeding: Mull Of Kintyre(USA) (8.9f) - Tamasriya(IRE) (Doyoun(10.3f)) Highest winning mark 83 Current mark 88 Usually races prominently (Cheekpieces: 1111532621200) LH: 56113800132620 RH: 471115210 Straight: NE/NW/Yorks: 5461380011536212 Central: 0 South: 0 Scotland/Wales: 1112 When racing at Ayr: 12 When racing at Beverley: 4711 When racing at Hamilton: 11 When racing at Haydock: 112 When racing at Newcastle: 08 When racing on GTF or faster ground: 5461171126210 When racing on GTF ground only: 41711126210 When racing on good ground: 0320 When racing on GTS ground: 301 When racing on soft or heavy: 58 When racing at 7f to 1m 2½ f: 7 wins from 20 runs When racing at 1m4f: 36 When ridden by Roysten French: 5 wins from 14 runs When racing with 1 to 7 runners: 11521 When racing with 8 to 11 runners: 2 wins from 10 runs When racing with 12 runners or more: 80710100 When racing 1 to 15 days after last race: 1816317121 When racing 16 to 30 days after last race: 6015304120 When racing 121 days or more after last race: 025 When racing in May to July: 54611111152120 When NOT racing in May to July: 380073260 The horse has won 7 from 13 when priced at up to 8-1 The horse has lost all 10 runs when priced at 17-2 or higher. When racing as clear favourite: 181 Profitable Profiles When racing at Ayr, Beverley, Hamilton and Haydock in May to July 411111112 OPTIMUM PROFILES When racing at Ayr, Beverley, Hamilton and Haydock in May to July on GTF ground 411111 NEGATIVE PROFILES When racing on soft or heavy ground 58 When racing in August and September 3832006

We can see at a glance that the horse performs optimally in the early part of the season, and cannot give her best on soft ground. But, when raced over optimum conditions, her overall record of 546113800711115326/21200- (prior to the 2009 season), becomes 411111

There are very few horses who can handle a diverse array of differing conditions, which makes it perplexing that so many are tried on all grounds, at varying trips, and in many different grades. Profiling enables us to see through a horse’s overall profile to the profitable hub. Obviously, in order to form a profile on a horse, that horse must have run a number of times (suggestion is at least eight and ideally twelve or more). So, typically, we’ll be looking for exposed handicappers. Following this approach with Flat Racing Profiles, a manual I published this season (2009) and written by David, the horses running under their optimum conditions are showing a profit of over 50 points at the time of writing (mid-September).

19. The Tote The ‘nanny goat’, or Tote as it is more commonly known, is a form of pool betting where the amount you win depends on how many other people agree with you on the outcome of the event. This presents some excellent opportunities for the contrarian thinkers amongst you. Basically, if your horse doesn’t have an obvious chance of winning, you may very well be rewarded with greater odds by betting with the Tote. And that, in a nutshell, is an angle into Tote betting systems. For instance, when I do a placepot bet (where you’re required to select a horse to be placed in each of six races), the first thing I will do is try to identify what I believe to be ‘dodgy’ favourites, or horses that will take more money in the market than perhaps they should. The challenge, in other words, is twofold. Firstly, I’m trying to correctly predict a horse to be placed in each race. But secondly, I’m trying to find the less likely horses that will pay the most money if I am successful. So, it is unlikely that I will win the bet if all of the favourites win. And that is fine, because in such a case the placepot may only pay £10 or so (or 9/1). I am interested in much bigger prizes, and will choose bigger priced ‘dark horses’ to try to win the bet and also make it worth winning. The same approach is true in all tote bets, and a system or service can readily enough be framed around these. For instance, if you’re planning to do a forecast and you will be against the first two or three in the betting, you should definitely consider doing a Tote Exacta rather than a computer straight forecast. The nature of the bet lends itself very well to tote betting. The Tote is definitely an area that a successful and popular betting system or service could be built around.

20. Other People’s Systems! There is a lot of promising systems out on the market that ultimately just fail to make the grade. Their approach has merit but the execution just lets things down somewhat and, when push comes to shove, they’re just not profitable. These angles can be taken and improved upon. For instance, when I first created Trainer Track Stats (TTS) back in 2006, that was based on another product that I really liked but I thought could be improved, called Trainer Trends. I went to work and created my own product for the National Hunt market. TTS is now one of the most popular betting manuals on the market and, whilst I don’t any longer publish it (my friend and colleague Gavin Priestley does), I am still very proud of the improvements I made to an existing product. Another opportunity out there that I’ve noticed recently is an in-running system, based on identifying horses’ running style and backing or laying them accordingly before the ‘off’, with a view to reversing out of the bet for a profit once the race has started.

Conclusions So there we are: twenty different angles from which to begin creating your very own super-profitable betting systems. Lots of food for thought, and possibilities aplenty. Once you’ve built your own goldmine, all that remains is to use it for profit. This could be just ‘secretly’ following the selections yourself, or sharing it with a few close friends. Alternatively, you might want to take the approach that I took with Trainer Track Stats, and offer it to the general public for a fee. If you’re interested in taking your newly created betting system, and offering it to the public, then I may be able to help you. Watch out for more details soon… Right, I’m off to create a(nother!) profitable betting system. And so should you be. What are you waiting for?!

Matt Bisogno www.HorseRacingExperts.co.uk