1q-2011 long is - douglas elliman · 2011. 4. 20. · visit our website to browse listings and...
TRANSCRIPT
• Price indicators mixed Median sales
price for a Long Island property was
$350,000 in the first quarter, unchanged
from same period last year. Average
sales price edged up 2.5% to $439,085
over the same period.
• Number of sales edged higher Sales edged up 0.7% to 3,841 from
the prior year quarter. Pending sales
fell 10.1% over same period, due to the
federal homebuyer tax credit expiration.
• Absorption rate stabilized Absorption
remained essentially unchanged at 16.6
months over the past year, slower than
the 14.1 month 5-year average rate.
Housing prices on Long Island remained
relatively stable in the first quarter of 2011.
The median sales price was $350,000 in the
first quarter of 2011, unchanged from the same
period last year. Average sales price edged 2.5%
higher over the same period to $439,085. The
increase in average sales price reflected gains
seen in higher end markets such as North Shore
and Luxury. Both saw modest year over year
gains in average sales price in the first quarter.
The number of closed sales edged 0.7% higher
to 3,841 sales from 3,814 sales in the prior
year quarter. However, pending sales—signed
contracts—fell 10.1% to 4,297 sales over the
same period. The decline in contracts was
attributable to the surge in signed contracts over
the same period last year, due to the federal
homebuyer tax credit that subsequently expired
in April 2010. Many buyers were incentivized
to move their purchase before the expiration
date last year. As a result, the number of signed
contracts in the first quarter of 2010 were
inflated and are being compared to the first
quarter of 2011.
Listing inventory over the same period increased
a modest 1.6% to 21,229 resulting in an
absorption rate of 16.6 months. The absorption
rate—the number of months to sell all active
inventory at the current pace of sales—has
averaged 13.4 months over the past 5 years.
Days on market averaged 127 days, 3 days
longer than the same period a year ago. With
sellers faced with a modest increase in listing
competition, the listing discount increased to
7.6% from 6.7% last year at this time.
Mortgage lending continues to be a challenge
to the housing market as lenders maintain
historically tight conditions. Unemployment in
the region is improving, but remains at high
levels. Current sales activity and prices are
below the peak levels seen in the middle of the
past decade, but that period was an anomaly
driven by a credit boom. However, the Long
Island housing market is beginning to show
overall stabilization of prices and sales.
The Douglas Elliman Report series is recognized as the industry standard for providing
the state of the residential real estate market in the New York City metropolitan region.
The report includes an extensive suite of tools to help readers objectively identify and
measure market trends, provide historical context to current information and provide
comprehensive analysis of the results.
Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc. Appraisal and consulting services covering the New York City metropolitan area
1Q-2011 quarterly survey of residential sales
Long IsLand
Long IsLand Long isLand Market MatrIx Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr
Average Sales Price $439,085 1.1% $434,424 2.5% $428,234
Median Sales Price $350,000 -1.7% $356,050 0.0% $350,000
Number of Sales 3,841 -9.7% 4,252 0.7% 3,814
Days on Market (From Original List Date) 127 6.8% 119 2.4% 124
Listing Discount (From Original List Price) 7.6% 6.9% 6.7%
Listing Inventory 21,229 13.3% 18,742 1.6% 20,902
Absorption Rate (mos) 16.6 25.4% 13.2 0.9% 16.4
Pending Sales 4,297 -3.4% 4,447 -10.1% 4,779
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
[The Hamptons and the North Fork reported separately]
Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends
1Q-2011 The Douglas Elliman Report • Quarterly Survey of Long Island Residential Sales
Condo Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year QtrAverage Sales Price $317,822 1.2% $314,111 8.7% $292,433Median Sales Price $250,000 -5.7% $265,000 2.0% $245,000Number of Sales 484 -17.3% 585 -4.5% 507Days on Market (From Original List Date) 153 11.0% 138 -5.2% 161Listing Discount (From Original List Price) 7.2% 6.4% 6.8%Listing Inventory 3,424 13.8% 3,010 -1.1% 3,461Absorption Rate (mos) 21.2 37.5% 15.4 3.6% 20.5Pending Sales 585 0.2% 584 -13.2% 674
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
Quintiles Current Qtr Prior Yr % Chg 5/5 $615,000 18.3%4/5 $365,000 9.0%3/5 $250,000 2.0%2/5 $185,000 0.0%1/5 $115,000 7.5%
1-3 FaMily Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year QtrAverage Sales Price $446,953 -1.5% $453,618 -0.5% $449,054Median Sales Price $358,500 -2.8% $369,000 -2.6% $368,000Number of Sales 3,357 -8.5% 3,667 1.5% 3,307Days on Market (From Original List Date) 121 4.6% 116 2.5% 118Listing Discount (From Original List Price) 7.7% 7.3% 6.9%Listing Inventory 19,450 13.2% 17,188 2.2% 19,025Absorption Rate (mos) 17.4 23.6% 14.1 0.7% 17.3Pending Sales 3,712 -3.9% 3,863 -9.6% 4,104
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
Quintiles Current Qtr Prior Yr % Chg 5/5 $738,500 -1.4%4/5 $455,000 -1.0%3/5 $358,500 -2.6%2/5 $285,000 -1.7%1/5 $167,450 -7.0%
luxury Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year QtrAverage Sales Price $1,282,916 5.2% $1,218,973 4.0% $1,233,544Median Sales Price $967,000 1.8% $950,000 -1.3% $980,000Number Of Sales 371 -12.7% 425 3.9% 357Days on Market (From Original List Date) 141 1.7% 139 -4.8% 148Listing Discount (From Original List Price) 11.3% 10.5% 10.3%Listing Inventory 4,130 11.0% 3,722 -8.0% 4,491Absorption Rate (mos) 33.4 27.1% 26.3 -11.5% 37.7Pending Sales 530 -3.5% 549 4.1% 509
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
Quintiles Current Qtr Prior Yr % Chg 5/5 $2,125,000 7.6%4/5 $1,250,000 2.5%3/5 $967,000 -1.3%2/5 $836,250 -1.6%1/5 $750,000 -1.3%
suFFolk Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year QtrAverage Sales Price $356,665 0.3% $355,566 3.2% $345,725Median Sales Price $305,000 -3.2% $315,000 0.0% $305,000Number of Sales 1,976 -10.4% 2,205 3.9% 1,901Days on Market (From Original List Date) 127 6.0% 120 -0.1% 127Listing Discount (From Original List Price) 6.5% 5.7% 5.5%Listing Inventory 11,300 10.8% 10,199 0.0% 11,298Absorption Rate (mos) 17.2 23.6% 13.9 -3.8% 17.8Pending Sales 2,217 -3.3% 2,293 -10.7% 2,483
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
Quintiles Current Qtr Prior Yr % Chg 5/5 $597,218 5.7%4/5 $390,000 0.5%3/5 $305,000 0.0%2/5 $225,000 -3.6%1/5 $129,000 -5.0%
• Number of sales declined There were
484 sales in the first quarter, 4.5%
below the same period last year, which
saw a federal tax credit-related surge.
• Price indicators increased over prior year quarter Median sales price
increased 2% to $250,000 from the
same period last year as average sales
price increased 8.7% to $317,822 over
the same period.
• Price indicators were mixed The
median sales price was $967,000 in
the first quarter, down 1.3% from the
prior year quarter. Average sales price
increased 4% over the same period with
more activity at the upper end.
• Listing inventory declined Inventory
fell 8% to 4,130 listings as compared to
the same period last year.
• Number of sales below prior year level There were 3,357 sales in the
first quarter, 1.5% more than the same
period a year ago.
• Price indicators were mixed Median
sales price slipped 2.6% to $358,500
compared to the prior year quarter.
Average sales price was essentially
stable at $446,953 over the same
period.
• More sales than prior year quarter There were 1,976 sales in the first
quarter, 3.9% more than the same
period last year.
• Price indicators were mixed Median
sales price was unchanged from the
same period last year at $305,000.
Average sales price increased 3.2% to
$356,665 over the same period.
Condos
Luxury
1-3 FaMILy
suFFoLkNote: This sub-category is the analysis of the top ten percent of all sales. The data is also contained within the other markets presented.
Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends
1Q-2011The Douglas Elliman Report • Quarterly Survey of Long Island Residential Sales
nassau Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year QtrAverage Sales Price $526,410 1.4% $519,369 3.2% $510,226Median Sales Price $400,000 -1.2% $405,000 0.0% $400,000Number of Sales 1,865 -8.9% 2,047 -2.5% 1,913Days on Market (From Original List Date) 127 7.6% 118 5.0% 121Listing Discount (From Original List Price) 8.8% 8.3% 7.8%Listing Inventory 9,929 16.2% 8,543 3.4% 9,604Absorption Rate (mos) 16.0 27.6% 12.5 6.0% 15.1Pending Sales 2,080 -3.4% 2,154 -9.4% 2,296
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
Quintiles Current Qtr Prior Yr % Chg 5/5 $880,000 3.5%4/5 $530,000 1.9%3/5 $400,000 0.0%2/5 $324,500 -0.2%1/5 $210,000 1.2%
nassau no. shore Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year QtrAverage Sales Price $919,230 0.2% $917,449 5.6% $870,689Median Sales Price $665,000 -7.6% $720,000 4.3% $637,500Number of Sales 438 2.8% 426 5.3% 416Days on Market (From Original List Date) 142 11.7% 127 3.2% 138Listing Discount (From Original List Price) 11.5% 10.9% 10.1%Listing Inventory 2,348 18.1% 1,988 -3.1% 2,423Absorption Rate (mos) 11.1 -35.1% 17.1 -21.3% 14.1Pending Sales 474 2.8% 461 7.0% 443
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
Quintiles Current Qtr Prior Yr % Chg 5/5 $1,712,500 8.0%4/5 $900,000 -2.2%3/5 $665,000 4.3%2/5 $500,000 3.2%1/5 $317,500 8.4%
Middle island Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year QtrAverage Sales Price $396,732 -3.5% $411,164 -2.3% $406,200Median Sales Price $360,000 -4.0% $375,000 -2.7% $370,000Number of Sales 1,322 -4.8% 1,388 -0.2% 1,324Days on Market (From Original List Date) 119 7.8% 111 5.0% 114Listing Discount (From Original List Price) 6.4% 6.3% 6.2%Listing Inventory 5,847 16.5% 5,018 6.3% 5,502Absorption Rate (mos) 13.3 22.3% 10.8 6.4% 12.5Pending Sales 1,300 -5.0% 1,369 -15.7% 1,543
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
Quintiles Current Qtr Prior Yr % Chg 5/5 $625,000 -1.6%4/5 $430,000 -3.4%3/5 $360,000 -2.7%2/5 $307,000 -1.0%1/5 $200,000 1.6%
south shore Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year QtrAverage Sales Price $319,310 -7.2% $344,133 -4.0% $332,505Median Sales Price $285,000 -9.5% $315,000 -5.0% $300,000Number of Sales 678 -19.0% 837 -1.3% 687Days on Market (From Original List Date) 130 -4.0% 136 3.5% 126Listing Discount (From Original List Price) 7.5% 6.8% 5.9%Listing Inventory 4,617 8.8% 4,242 -1.1% 4,669Absorption Rate (mos) 20.4 34.4% 15.2 0.2% 20.4Pending Sales 800 -2.3% 819 -5.2% 844
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
Quintiles Current Qtr Prior Yr % Chg 5/5 $550,000 -1.8%4/5 $375,000 -2.6%3/5 $285,000 -5.0%2/5 $205,000 -8.9%1/5 $113,423 -11.0%
• Price indicators were mixed Median
sales price was unchanged from the
same period last year at $400,000.
Average sales price increased 3.2% to
$526,410 over the same period.
• Fewer sales than prior year quarter There were 1,865 sales in the first
quarter, 2.5% less than the same
period last year.
• Price indicators slipped Median sales
price declined 2.7% to $360,000 from
the same period last year. Average
sales price followed the same pattern,
declining 2.3% to $396,732.
• Number of sales unchanged There
were 1,322 sales in the first quarter,
essentially unchanged from the same
period last year.
• Price indicators above prior year levels Median sales price increased
4.3% to $665,000 from the same period
last year. Average sales price increased
5.6% to $919,230 over the same period.
• Only sub-market to see rise in sales
There 438 sales in the first quarter, 5.3%
more than the 416 sales in the same
period a year ago.
• Number of sales unchanged
There were 678 sales in the first
quarter, 1.3% less than the same
period last year.
• Price indicators slipped Median sales
price declined 5% to $285,000 from
the same period last year. Average
sales price followed the same pattern,
declining 4% to $319,310.
nassau
south shore
MIddLe IsLand Nassau
north shore Nassau
Nassau & suffolk
1Q-2011 The Douglas Elliman Report • Quarterly Survey of Long Island Residential Sales
• Despite mixed market, properties do sell above list price Roughly 4.4%
of all sales in the first quarter sold for
more than their original list price.
• Original list price does influence the time it takes to sell For the past two
years, properties that sold above their
original list were sold an average of 64
days faster than the overall market.
• Market share of properties that sold above list has stabilized over past 7 quarters The number of sales that
sold above original list price began to
rise in mid-2009 in connection with the
federal homebuyer tax credit.
In-FoCus
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE LONG�ISLAND NUMBER�OF�SALES
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESCONDOS
�SALES�ABOVE�ORIGINAL�LIST�PRICE LONG�ISLAND REDUCED�MARKETING�TIME
24
35
46
57
68
79
90
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 104Q 093Q 092Q 091Q 094Q 083Q 082Q 081Q 08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$450,000
$600,000
$750,000
111009080706050403
200
400
600
800
1,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALES�-��FAMILY
1,200
2,400
3,600
4,800
6,000
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESLUXURY
200
400
600
800
1,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESSUFFOLK
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000
$350,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAU
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUMIDDLE�ISLAND
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$345,000
$365,000
$385,000
$405,000
$425,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUSOUTH�SHORE
300
500
700
900
1,100
$250,000
$280,000
$310,000
$340,000
$370,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE NO�of SALESNASSAUNORTH�SHORE
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
$370,000
$390,000
$410,000
$430,000
$450,000
1Q 114Q 103Q 102Q 101Q 10
BaBylon 124 East Main St. 631.422.7510 Cherry Grove Ocean/Bay Walk 631.597.3100 dix hills 1772 East Jericho Tnpk. 631.499.9191 east islip 100 West Main St. 631.581.8855 east Meadow 2373 Hempstead Tnpk. 516.796.4000
east norwiCh 6326 Northern Blvd. 516.624.9000 Franklin sQuare 390 Franklin Ave. 516.354.6500 Great neCk 11 Bond St. 516.466.2100 huntinGton 156 East Main St. 631.549.4400 loCust valley 71 Forest Ave. 516.759.0400
lonG BeaCh 30A West Park Ave. 516.432.3400 Manhasset 154 Plandome Rd. 516.627.2800 MassapeQua 5066 Sunrise Hwy. 516.795.3456 MassapeQua south 4804 Merrick Rd. 516.798.1353 MedFord 2222 Route 112. 631.758.2552 MerriCk 2300 Merrick Rd. 516.623.4500 Miller plaCe 275-23 Route 25A 631.474.4242 northport 700 Fort Salonga Rd. 631.261.6800 plainview 998A Old Country Rd. 516.681.2600 port washinGton 475 Port Washington Blvd. 516.883.5200 ronkonkoMa 4949 Express Dr. North 631.585.8500 roslyn 1528 Old Northern Blvd. 516.621.3555 sayville 150 Main St. 631.589.8500 setauket 750 Route 25A 631.751.6000 sMithtown 996 Jericho Tnpk. 631.543.9400 syosset 317 Jackson Ave. 516.921.2262 williston park 192 Hillside Ave. 516.746.0654
©2011 Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. All worldwide rights reserved.
Market area groupIngs of towns In Long IsLand
Lake Success Lattingtown Laurel Hollow Locust Valley Manhasset Manhasset Hills Matinecock Mill Neck Munsey Park Muttontown North Hills Old Brookville Old Westbury Oyster Bay Oyster Bay Cove Plandome Plandome Heights Plandome Manor Port Washington Port Washington N.
Roslyn Roslyn Estates Roslyn Harbor Roslyn Heights Russell Gardens Saddle Rock Sands Point Sea Cliff Syosset Thomaston Upper BrookvilleNassau Middle islaNdAlbertson Baldwin Bellerose Terrace Bellerose Village Bellmore Bethpage Carle Place
Nassau North shore Baxter Estates Bayville Brookville Centre Island Cove Neck East Hills East Norwich Flower Hill Glen Cove Glen Head Glenwood Landing Great Neck Great Neck Estates Great Neck Plaza Greenvale Harbor Hills Kensington Kings Point
Cedarhurst East Meadow East Rockaway East Williston Elmont Farmingdale Floral Park Franklin Square Garden City Garden City Park Garden City S. Hempstead Hewlett Hicksville Inwood Island Park Jericho Lake Success Lakeview Lawrence
Levittown Lynbrook Malverne Massapequa Massapequa Park Merrick Mineola New Hyde Park North Baldwin N. Bellmore N. Massapequa N. Merrick N. Woodmere N. Valley Stream Old Bethpage Plainview Rockville Centre Roosevelt Seaford Searingtown
S. Floral Park S. Hempstead Stewart Manor Uniondale Valley Stream Wantagh W. Hempstead Westbury Williston Park Woodbury Woodmere WoodsburghNassau & suffolksouth shoreAmity Harbor Amityville Atlantic Beach Babylon Baldwin Harbor Bay Shore
Bayport Bellport Blue Point Brightwaters Brookhaven Center Moriches Copiague East Atlantic Beach East Islip East Moriches East Patchogue Freeport Great River Hewlett Bay Park Hewlett Harbor Hewlett Neck Islip Islip Terrace Lido Beach Lindenhurst
Long Beach Mastic Mastic Beach Moriches Oakdale Oceanside Patchogue Point Lookout Sayville South Bellmore South Merrick West Bay Shore West Islip West Sayville
©2011. An Independently owned and operated member of the Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc. is a service mark of Prudential Insurance Company of America Equal Housing Opportunity. All material presented herein is intended for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. All property outlines and square footage in property listings are approximate.
For more information or electronic copies of this report please visit elliman.com/marketreports. Email report author Jonathan Miller at [email protected] with questions or comments. Report methodology: http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/methodology.php
Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate575 Madison AvenueNew York, NY 10022212.891.7000elliman.com
Miller Samuel Inc.Real Estate Appraisers21 West 38th StreetNew York, NY 10018212.768.8100millersamuel.com
what type of conditions may exist. The amount
of properties that sell above list price fluctuates
with changes in the conditions of the market.
In the spring of 2008, 5.4% of properties sold
above their original list price. This amount could
have been a nominal or a large premium above
original list price. After the onset of the credit
crunch in the third quarter of 2008, the market
share fell to 3.4% at the end of the year. As the
market improved in late 2009 and the first half
of 2010 largely due to the federal homebuyers
tax credit-related surge in sales activity, market
In our experience, one of the characteristics
of most housing markets is that properties sell
above, below and at original list price no matter
share rose to 7% in the first quarter of 2010.
Market share has steadily declined over the next
four quarters, reaching 4.4% in the first quarter
of 2011.
Properties that were sold above their original list
price were on the market an average of 64 days
less than the overall market, which averaged
121 days over the same period. Market share for
properties that sell above original list have been
falling over the past year, however, marketing
time for those units have been getting faster for
two consecutive quarters.