1. health and diseases · 2018. 4. 13. · 1. health and diseases a) who guidelines on tobacco...

1. HEALTH AND DISEASES

A) WHO Guidelines on Tobacco Testing

Overview

WHO has launched new guidance, Tobacco product regulation: Building laboratory testing capacity, on

tobacco product regulation in response to the need for clear, practical advice on building laboratory

testing capacity.

It provides practical, stepwise approaches to implementing tobacco testing. Such guidance is relevant to

a wide range of countries in various settings, even those with inadequate resources to establish a testing

facility.

The new tobacco laboratory guide is a useful resource for countries, and provides regulators and

policymakers with comprehensible information on how to test tobacco products, what products to test,

and how to use testing data in a meaningful way to support regulation.

It provides a step-by-step guide to developing a testing laboratory, using an existing internal laboratory,

contracting an external laboratory, and making use of the available support mechanisms both within

WHO and externally.

Possible routes to a testing laboratory:

1. Contracting with an external laboratory

2. Using an existing internal laboratory

3. Developing a dedicated laboratory

B) UPDATES ON TB

Context

The government recently passed a gazette notification making the non-reporting of tuberculosis (TB)

cases a punishable offence, with even a jail term of up to two years.

The move comes against the backdrop of the Prime Minister’s call to end TB in India by 2025,

ushering in a ‘mission mode’ approach to defeat the disease.

Under-reporting of cases

The TB Programme continues to face the challenge of under-reporting of cases from the private

sector, which caters to a majority of cases.

A study in The Lancet in 2016 estimated that as many as 22 lakh cases of TB were treated in the

private sector in 2014; in the public sector, the figure was 14 lakh.

Despite efforts in the past decade to encourage higher case notifications, the private sector reported

just over three lakh cases in 2016.

Going by The Lancet’s estimates, almost 19 lakh cases are still ‘missing’, a term used to define the gap

between the estimated cases in the private sector and those reported to the government.

What is the harm if a patient is not reported to the government and is being diagnosed and treated in the

private sector?

Not being reported to the government means the true burden of the disease remains unknown.

The absence of drug distribution controls and poor treatment practices accentuate the emergence

of drug-resistant TB.

TB is five times more common among the economically weaker sections of society and the disease

can have devastating financial and social consequences.

Using Nikshay

A web-based application called ‘Nikshay’ was launched in 2012 to help providers notify cases to the

authorities.

Doctors need to download the app. The data of the patients entered in the app will be linked to a

server in CTD. This will help avoid its duplication

Apart from web based technology, SMS services have been used effectively for communication with

patients and monitoring the programme on a day-to-day basis.

It has been developed by National Informatics Centre (NIC)

However, low awareness about this portal among private providers and technical difficulties in the

software resulted in its low use.

Considering that punitive action can be taken against providers for not reporting cases, it is imperative that the

reporting process itself becomes more accessible.

Way forward

Collaboration with forums such as the Indian Medical Association should also be explored to conduct

sensitisation workshops to improve knowledge among private providers.

Thus, the notification policy, supplemented by the comprehensive strengthening of the public health

system, greater engagement with the private sector, the simplification of the reporting process and

more awareness among public and health-care providers, is sure to reach the goal of a TB-free India.

National Anti-TB Drug Resistance Survey report

Context

The first-ever survey of drug-resistant (DR) tuberculosis (TB) has found that over a quarter

of patients in India could be resistant to one or more drugs that can cure them.

Among the 4,958 patients on whom drug susceptibility testing (DST) was conducted

(necessary to find out if a person has drug resistant TB), 28% had resistance to one or the

other anti-TB drug, while 6.19% had multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB.

Stats

India is home to 2.8 million TB patients, the largest in the world.

With 879 XDR patients, Maharashtra has the highest number of such patients.

Uttar Pradesh has the highest number of cases of drug-resistant TB (9,138)

No private sector data

The survey was done at designated microscopy centres (DMCs) within the laboratory

network of the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP), and provides a

conservative estimate of India’s actual disease burden.

The survey does not reveal the national burden of DR-TB as it does not include data from

patients being treated in the private sector.

Targets

India has set itself the target of eliminating TB by 2025, five years ahead of the global target

set under the Sustainable Development Goals.

To reach the ‘elimination’ target, the country will have to restrict new infections to less than

one case per 100,000 people as against the current rate of 211 new infections per 100,000

people.

2. POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

A) Looming Water Crisis

Background

Climate change is also impacting the global water cycle with wetter regions generally becoming

wetter and drier regions drier.

An estimated 3.6 billion people now live in areas that could face water scarcity for at least a

month in a year, with that number increasing to 4.8 and 5.7 billion by 2050.

The International Water Management Institute estimates that total demand could increase

from 680 billion cubic metres (BCM) to 833 BCM by 2025, and to 900 BCM by 2050.

India faces major threats to its water security, with most water bodies near urban centres

heavily polluted. Inter-State disputes over river resources are also becoming more intense and

widespread.

Deteriorating water quality

Water pollution has worsened in most rivers in Africa, Asia and Latin America, according to the

UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

An estimated 80% of industrial and municipal wastewater is released without any prior

treatment, with detrimental impacts on human health and ecosystems.

Nature-Based Solution

The environmental co-benefits of nature-based solutions to increasing sustainable agricultural

production are substantial as there are decreased pressures on land conversion and reduced

pollution, erosion and water requirements.

Constructed wetlands for wastewater treatment can also be a cost-effective, nature-based

solution that provides effluent of adequate quality for several non-potable uses (irrigation) and

additional benefits that include energy production.

Watershed management is another nature-based solution that is seen not only as a

complement to built or “grey” infrastructure but also one that could also spur local economic

development, job creation, biodiversity protection and climate resilience.

Day-zero

Cape Town, South Africa, is about to run out of water completely.

Authorities are warning that as soon as July 9th — which they’ve ominously dubbed “Day Zero” —

the drought-stricken city will have to cut off taps to all homes and most businesses, leaving nearly all

of the city’s 4 million residents without access to running water.

Residents will then have to go to roughly 200 collection points scattered across the city to collect

strictly rationed water. People will be allowed just 25 liters — about 6.5 gallons — of water a day.

That’s all the water they’ll have for drinking, bathing, flushing toilets, and washing their hands.

How did things get this bad in Cape Town?

Up until a few years ago, the city was held up as an example of a place with particularly

sophisticated water conservation policies.

In 2015, Cape Town even won a prestigious international award for its water conservation

policies.

But 2015 also marked the beginning of a devastating three-year drought unlike anything the city

had seen in more than a century.

The drought exposed a key problem in the city’s water supply: its near-total reliance on

rainwater.

B) Great Pacific Garbage Patch

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is a collection of marine debris in the North Pacific Ocean. Marine

debris is litter that ends up in oceans, seas, and other large bodies of water.

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch, also known as the Pacific trash vortex, spans waters from the

West Coast of North America to Japan. The patch is actually comprised of the Western Garbage

Patch, located near Japan, and the Eastern Garbage Patch, located between the U.S. states of Hawaii

and California.

These areas of spinning debris are linked together by the North Pacific Subtropical Convergence

Zone, located a few hundred kilometers north of Hawaii.

This convergence zone is where warm water from the South Pacific meets up with cooler water

from the Arctic. The zone acts like a highway that moves debris from one patch to another.

The amount of debris in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch accumulates because much of it is not

biodegradable. Many plastics, for instance, do not wear down; they simply break into tinier and

tinier pieces.

These patches are almost entirely made up of tiny bits of plastic, called microplastics.

Microplastics can’t always be seen by the naked eye.

Marine Debris

About 80% of the debris in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch comes from land-based activities in

North America and Asia.

The remaining 20% of debris in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch comes from boaters, offshore

oil rigs, and large cargo ships that dump or lose debris directly into the water.

While many different types of trash enter the ocean, plastics make up the majority of marine

debris.

In the ocean, the sun breaks down these plastics into tinier and tinier pieces, a process known

as photodegradation.

Scientists have collected up to 750,000 bits of microplastic in a single square kilometer of the

Great Pacific Garbage Patch.

Harmful Effects

Loggerhead sea turtles often mistake plastic bags for jellies. Albatrosses mistake plastic resin

pellets for fish eggs and feed them to chicks, which die of starvation or ruptured organs.

Seals and other marine mammals can get entangled in abandoned plastic fishing nets, which are

being discarded more often because of their low cost.

As microplastics and other trash collect on or near the surface of the ocean, they block sunlight

from reaching plankton and algae below.

New Study

Researchers based in the Netherlands used a fleet of boats and aircraft to scan the immense

accumulation of bottles, containers, fishing nets and microparticles and found an astonishing

build-up of plastic waste.

They found that the dump now contains around 1.8 trillion pieces of plastic, posing a dual

threat to marine life.

Global plastics production hit 322 million tonnes in 2015, according to the International

Organization for Standardization.

C) Microplastic Contamination

Plastics that are less than five millimeters in length (or about the size of a sesame seed) are

called “microplastics.”

Microbeads are tiny pieces of polyethylene plastic added to health and beauty products, such as

some cleansers and toothpastes.

Microplastics come from a variety of sources, including from larger plastic debris that degrades

into smaller and smaller pieces.

In addition, microbeads, a type of microplastic, are very tiny pieces of manufactured

polyethylene plastic that are added as exfoliants to health and beauty products, such as some

cleansers and toothpastes.

New Study

More than 90 per cent of bottled water is contaminated with microplastics.

Researchers from the State University of New York in the US tested 259 individual bottles from

27 different lots across 11 brands sold in 9 countries. Samples from 19 locations, including New

Delhi, Chennai, and Mumbai in India, were analysed.

After accounting for possible laboratory contamination, 93 per cent of bottled water showed

some sign of microplastic contamination.

Leading international brands in this study included Aquafina, Dasani, Evian, Nestle Pure Life,

and San Pellegrino. Leading national brands included Aqua (Indonesia), Bisleri (India), Epura

(Mexico), Gerolsteiner (Germany), Minalba (Brazil), and Wahaha (China).

Only seventeen bottles out of the 259 bottles analysed showed no microplastic contamination,

indicating that 93 per cent of the bottled water tested showed some sign of contamination.

The densities of microplastic contamination were quite variable ranging from the 17 bottles

with no contamination to one bottle that showed an excess of 10,000 microplastic particles per

litre.

Polypropylene, often used to make plastic bottle caps, was found to be the most common

polymeric material (54 per cent), while Nylon was the second most abundant (16 per cent).

Polyethylene corresponded to 10 per cent of the particles analysed.

3. SPACE TECHNOLOGY

A) Privatization in ISRO

ISRO has issued a tender to the private industry for Assembly, Integration and Testing (AIT) of

30-35 satellites.

Under this, 4-5 companies would be selected after evaluation and awarded parallel contracts.

They would be responsible for the AIT of satellites at ISRO facilities.

ISRO currently launches 3-4 launches per year but the demand is for 16-18 satellites.

The idea is to let the private industry build their own facilities after gaining enough expertise.

The private sector already supplies majority of the sub-systems in satellite manufacturing.

B) Copernicus

India has joined Europe’s mega global arrangement of sharing data from earth observation

satellites, called Copernicus.

Data from a band of Indian remote sensing satellites will be available to the European

Copernicus programme, while designated Indian institutional users will in return get to access

free data from Europe’s six Sentinel satellites and those of other space agencies that are part of

the programme, at their cost.

The space-based information will be used for forecasting disasters, providing emergency

response and rescue of people during disasters; to glean land, ocean data; and for issues of

security, agriculture, climate change and atmosphere.

The multi-billion-euro Copernicus is Europe’s system for monitoring the earth using satellite

data. It is coordinated and managed by the EC.

C) Space Travel can alter DNA

Space travel caused lasting changes to seven per cent genes of astronaut Scott Kelly, according

to a NASA study which compared his DNA to that of his identical twin brother, who remained on

Earth.

By measuring large numbers of metabolites, cytokines, and proteins, researchers learned that

spaceflight is associated with oxygen deprivation stress, increased inflammation, and dramatic

nutrient shifts that affect gene expression.

Scott’s telomeres – end caps of chromosomes that shorten as one ages – actually became

significantly longer in space.

Researchers now know that 93 per cent of Scott’s genes returned to normal after landing.

However, the remaining seven per cent point to possible longer term changes in genes related

to his immune system, DNA repair, bone formation networks, hypoxia and hypercapnia.

What is a telomere?

Telomeres are distinctive structures found at the ends of our chromosomes. They consist of the

same short DNA sequence repeated over and over again.

Telomeres are sections of DNA found at the ends of each of our chromosomes

They consist of the same sequence of bases repeated over and over.

In humans the telomere sequence is TTAGGG.

This sequence is usually repeated about 3,000 times and can reach up to 15,000 base

pairs in length.

What do telomeres do?

Telomeres serve three major purposes:

1. They help to organise each of our 46 chromosomes in the nucleus of our cells

2. They protect the ends of our chromosomes by forming a cap, much like the plastic tip on

shoelaces. If the telomeres were not there, our chromosomes may end up sticking to other

chromosomes.

3. They allow the chromosome to be replicated properly during cell division

4. BIODIVERSITY

A) New species of water strider found in Nagaland river

Scientists from the Zoological Survey of India (ZSI) have discovered a new species of water

strider from Nagaland. The species, named Ptilomera nagalanda Jehamalar and Chandra , was

found in the river Intanki, Peren district.

Water striders are a group of insects adapted to life on the surface of water, using surface

tension to their advantage.

Orange with black stripes on the dorsal side and a pale yellowish brown ventral part of the

body, this particular species has long slender legs and measures about 11.79 mm.

So far, only five species of water striders under the subgenus Ptilomera were known in India.

Other than being a good indicator of water quality, water striders also play an important role in

the food chain by feeding on mosquito larvae.

What is unique about Ptilomera is that they are only found in rocky, fast flowing streams and

rivers that are not exposed to a lot of sunlight.

Ptilomera has hair on the middle legs that help the insects resist the strong current of streams.

Water striders have three pairs of legs.

B) Last male white rhino dies in Kenya

Sudan, the last male northern white rhino, has died in Kenya at the age of 45, after becoming a

symbol of efforts to save his sub-species from extinction.

When Sudan was born in 1973 in the wild in Shambe, South Sudan, there were about 700 of his

kind left in existence.

Sudan was suffering from age-related infections, according to his keepers at the Ol Pejeta

Conservancy, where he lived under protection from potential poachers.

Demand for rhino horn in traditional Chinese medicine and dagger handles in Yemen fuelled a

poaching crisis in the 1970s and 1980s that largely wiped out the northern white rhino

population in Uganda, Central African Republic, Sudan and Chad.

A final remaining wild population of about 20-30 rhinos in the Democratic Republic of Congo

died out during the fighting in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and by 2008 the northern white

rhino was considered extinct in the wild.

IVF techniques

Scientists have gathered Sudan’s genetic material and are working on developing IVF

techniques to preserve the subspecies.

The plan is to use sperm from several northern white rhino males that is stored in Berlin, and

eggs from the two remaining northern white females and implant the embryo in a surrogate

southern white female.

4. DEFENSE

A) BRAHMOS with indigenous technology tested

The BrahMos supersonic cruise missile was successfully test-fired with an indigenous seeker for the

first time. So far the seeker came from Russia.

Expert tie-up

The seeker was jointly developed by the Defence Research and Development Laboratory (DRDL),

Hyderabad, and BrahMos Aerospace.

What are seekers?

Seeker missiles area passive weapon guiding system which uses the infrared light aka heat

emission from a target to track and follow it.

Missiles which use infrared seeking are often referred to as "heat-seekers", since infrared is

radiated strongly by hot bodies.

Many objects such as people, vehicle engines and aircraft generate and emit heat, and as such,

are especially visible in the infrared wavelengths of light compared to objects in the

background.

Infrared seekers are passive devices, which, unlike radar, provide no indication that they are

tracking a target. This makes them suitable for sneak attacks during visual encounters, or over

longer ranges when used with a forward looking infrared system or similar cuing system.

5. ENERGY

A) Decisions at International Solar Alliance Meeting

India on Sunday announced one of the world’s largest investment plans in solar energy at the

Founding Conference of the International Solar Alliance (ISA). The $1.4 billion line of credit will cover

27 projects in 15 countries and boost the much-required financial power to the solar sector.

10-point plan

The Founding Conference was co-chaired by Mr. Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron. Mr.

Modi presented a 10-point action plan aimed at making solar power more affordable while raising

the share of power generated.

Mr. Macron identified three issues to be addressed — the solar energy potential in each country

should be be identified; mobilisation of finance; and the provision of a favourable framework.

C O V E R S T O R Y

A group of young girls dig up a dried riverbed to get water in Turkana county in northern Kenya

40-50Cover Story.indd 40 09/03/18 5:45 PM

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hile the world’s most dramatic urban crisis unfolds in Africa, recent stud-ies say at least 200 cities across the world are fast running out of water. An analysis by Down To Earth shows 10 of them are headed towards Day Zero—when the taps will run dry (see map ‘Global sinks’ on p46). This

comes as a surprise because cities across the world have grown, thrived and expand-ed along rich, perennial sources of water, be it lakes, rivers, springs or even seas. So, where did all the water go?

Robert McDonald, lead scientist at the US-based environmental group Nature Conservancy offers an explanation. “The main long-term driver of these shortages is the unprecedented urban growth occurring around the world,” he says. Rightly so. There has been a massive redistribution of populations in recent decades. Urban ar-eas, which account for just 3 per cent of the total landmass, are now home to 54 per cent of the global population today, says a study published in Nature this January. The UN expects this rapid urbanisation will go on at least till the mid of 21st century. By then, urban populations would make up about 66 per cent of the world’s total pop-ulation. Around 90 percent of this growth is expected to be in developing countries.

“With growth in population come changes in land-use pattern, which can affect water availability in a city,” explains T V Ramachandra, professor of ecological engi-neering at the Indian Institute of Science (iisc), Bengaluru. For instance, he says, fol-lowing Bengaluru’s rise as the information technology hub, built-up area of the city

Bengaluru, Beijing, Mexico City and Istanbul are some of the cities that are headed towards Day Zero

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has increased from a mere 8 per cent in 1973 to 77 per cent now. A study by Ramachandra and his colleagues at iisc shows that the number of waterbodies like lakes has also re-duced in Bengaluru by 79 per cent due to unplanned urbanisation and encroachment. This has severely restricted groundwater recharge. To make matters worse, the Bangalore Development Authority predicts that the city’s population might grow to reach 20.3 mil-lion by 2031.

Beijing, the capital city of China, also faces a similar predicament. Though more than 200 rivers and streams can still be found on official maps of this arid city, they have all dried up. For the past three decades the city has survived by digging, boring and drilling for groundwater. Now hydrologists warn that groundwater too is running out. “Groundwater is depleting at a rate of 1 metre per year and becoming polluted,” says Scientist Lixia Wang of the Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences under the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Nanjing. Today, only 119 cubic metres of water is available per person per year in Beijing, says Wang. Anything less than 1,000 cubic metres per capita annually is considered “water scarce” by the UN. Overextraction of groundwa-ter has already caused the city to sink up to 11 cm a year, shows a research led by Mi Chen of the College of Resources Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing. Experts say land subsidence can damage infrastructure like roads and bridges and in-

crease the chances of flooding and earthquake.Half way across the globe, Mexico City’s experience is

even more tragic story of urban growth. This largest me-tropolis in the Western Hemisphere is located in the Valley of Mexico where 700 years ago the Aztecs had built a city of floating gardens, known as “the Venice of the New World”. Over the years, the lakes that once filled the plains have been steadily drained by settlers. The lake beds now remain covered by a grey sea of concrete, tarmac and steel, forcing the city to source its supplies by pumping water from hun-dreds of metres underground or from a distance of over 100 kilometres. But these projects are taking a toll on the city. While overextraction of groundwater has caused the city’s soft base (heavily saturated clay) to sink at 40 cm per year, transporting billions of litres to the megalopolis at 2,400 metres above the sea level through seismically active moun-tains is fraught with danger.

Then there are cities like Sanaa of Yemen, which after exploiting the last drops of groundwater are looking for alternative sources. The city is growing at 7 per cent a year. World Bank officials working on water projects in the Sanaa basin say groundwater level in the basin has fallen from 30 metres in the 1970s to around 150 metres in the 1990s. Media reports speculate that the city might reach Day Zero in 2019. To avert the crisis city authorities have started tapping fossil aquifers—deep pock-ets under rock layers where water has remained stored for millennia. Once tapped there is no way to replenish these aquifers.

But the crises faced by Bengaluru, Beijing, Mexico City and Sanaa are not the making of sprawling urban areas alone. These are among the cities where urban planners have failed miserably to manage their water resources.

CRISIS OF MANAGEMENTOver the years, Bengaluru has become increasingly dependent on the Cauvery river for drinking water. In fact, in February while delivering a long-awaited verdict on the shar-ing of the Cauvery water between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the Supreme Court allo-cated around 6.5 thousand million cubic feet of water specifically for Karnataka’s capital Bengaluru. The court said that this was made keeping in mind the “global status of the city” and the demands of its burgeoning population. But analysts say the increased allo-cation will bring little relief to the city unless it manages the water well. The 2013-14 re-

Only 119 cubic metres of water is available per person per year in Beijing. Anything

less than 1,000 cubic metres per capita

annually is considered "water scarce" by the

UN. Overextraction of groundwater has

already caused the city to sink up to 11 cm a year

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port of the Comptroller and Auditor General states that half of the Cauvery waters, sup-plied to Bengaluru between 2009 and 2013, was wasted either due to pilferage or leakage due to antiquated plumbing. Mexico City also loses 40 per cent of the water due to leak-age, aged piping, lack of maintenance and illegal connections. Some estimates show that the lost water, if saved, could provide supply for up to 4 million people every day. Beijing’s water crisis is, however, the culmination short-sighted policies that have promoted over-use of limited water resources since 1949. This policy of guaranteeing water supply to the capital at little or no cost has wreaked havoc on Beijing’s farmers and encouraged wasteful consumption by industrial and urban consumers, says a 2008 report by Probe International, a Canadian public interest research group.

Eric Odada, professor of geology at the University of Nairobi and director of the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System, says lack of water governance is also at the helm of Nairobi’s long-standing crisis. The city is so heavily dependent on surface water that it plunges into a crisis whenever the monsoon plays truant. The water short-age became acute in 2016 because the city had not received adequate rainfall for four consecutive years. But heavy rains in April 2017 had caused severe floods. Ideally, this should have ended the city’s water woes. Instead, people continue to queue up for wa-ter in several localities. “This situation would not have arrived had the government har-vested the excess floodwater,” says Odada. The other major problem is inadequate wa-ter supply network. About 75 per cent of the Nairobians buy water from the kiosks and pushcart vendors at a higher price—up to 300 times the supply rate—because they are either not covered under the city’s water supply system or do not receive adequate sup-ply (see ‘Running out’ on p38).

The problems of Istanbul, the most populous city in Turkey, are quite similar to that of Nairobi. In 2014 and 2015, Istanbul faced severe droughts. Water in the reservoir

A man fills water from a public tap in a low-income area in Karachi

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C O V E R S T O R YC O V E R S T O R Y

Ten metropolitan cities ofthe world that are on the verge of an imminent water crisis

GlobalSINKS S O U T H

A M E R I C A

Number of months in which water scarcity is >100%

0 1 2-3

4-5 6-7 8-9

10-11 12 No data

200 water-stressed cities of the world

Buenos Aires, ArgentinaAnnual population growth: 1%Sources: La Plata river, groundwaterCrisis: Over-extraction of groundwater near the sea has led to saltwater intrusion, making groundwater non-potable. Only 5.8% sewage treated, rest discharged in the city's waterbodies

Mexico City, MexicoAnnual population growth: 1.5%Source: Surface and groundwater Crisis: The city extracts three times more groundwater than it can recharge. The over-exploitation of groundwater is causing land subsidence, making the city prone to flooding. The supply infrastructure is very poor, with 40% distribution loss

Sao Paulo, BrazilAnnual population growth: 1%Sources: Six reservoirsCrisis: The city loses 30% of its treated supply to leaks. The two main rivers are heavily polluted and rainforest destruction has reduced precipitation

Istanbul, TurkeyAnnual population growth: 1.3%Sources: 10 dams in the Marmara and the Black Sea regions and groundwater Crisis: By 2020, the demand supply gap will reach 607 million m3 per year. The decline in the water table due to unsustainable extraction is as much as 150 m in some areas and has led to salt water intrusion in coastal areas

Nairobi, KenyaAnnual population growth: 3% Source: Dams, springs, aquifers. Crisis: A water deficit of 0.2 million cubic metres per day. Only 50% of households are connected to a distribution system, where leakage loss is 50%. Waterbodies are highly polluted due to dumping of raw sewage

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C O V E R S T O R YC O V E R S T O R Y

Prepared by DTE/CSE Data CentreInfographics: Raj Kumar Singh; Analysis: Sushmita Sengupta Source: The United Nations World Water Development Report 2017; Martina Florke et al, 2018, Water competition between cities and agriculture driven by climate change and urban growth, Nature Sustainability

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Sanaa, YemenAnnual population growth: 7%Source: Mainly groundwater Crisis: The city has to dig to 200-300 m in search of water and has dug into the fossil aquifer, which, estimates say, will be over in a decade. Less than 50% of the population receives piped water and leakage loss is 60%

Karachi, PakistanAnnual population growth: 5% Source: Surface and groundwater Crisis: Huge influx of rural population to urban. The pipe lines are over 40 years old, with 25 per cent distribution leakage. Over 50% of the population in the city lives in informal slums, which are not connected to the piped supply. Wastewater from slums seeps and contaminates shallow aquifers

Beijing, ChinaAnnual population growth: 3.9%Sources: Mainly groundwaterCrisis: In 2012, its water use was over 3.6 billion m3, against the available 2.1 billion m3. The available water per person is only about 3% of the world's average. Due to over-extraction of groundwater the city has been sinking

Kabul, AfghanistanAnnual population growth: 0.2 million Source: Groundwater Crisis: 68% of Kabul residents don't have access to piped water and just 10% have access to potable water. Over-extraction of groundwater has reduced the water table

Bengaluru, IndiaAnnual population growth: 3.5%Source: Cauvery, Arkavathy rivers, groundwaterCrisis: Rivers and groundwater are the main sources. The total number of extraction wells has shot up from 5,000 to 0.45 million in the past 30 years. The water table has shrunk from 10-12 metre (m) to about 76-91 m in just two decades. Recharge of groundwater is minimal due to unplanned urbanisation. The city only uses half of its treatment capacity to treat the waste and as a result a substantial amount of waste is dumped in the waterbodies

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dipped down enormously in 2014 and in January it was just enough for 100 days, show official records. The city authority had to plan for transport of water from other basins. The city got relief in 2016 after a smattering of rain and the reservoirs filled to 85 per cent of the capacity. However, poor planning has again put Istanbul in the list of water scarce cities. The decline in the water table due to unsustainable extraction ranges from 30-150 metres in some areas. By 2020, the demand-supply gap will reach 607 million cubic metres per year, says a study published in the journal Environment, Development and Sustainability in 2015.

Heavy dependence on surface water is also the reason São Paulo, one of the 10 largest metropolitan cities in the world, faces water crisis. The city depends on six reservoirs on the Tietê river and its tributary for water supply. But this also makes it vulnerable to pre-cipitation anomalies. In 2015, the Brazilian city experienced its greatest water crisis in over 80 years after rainfall was below-average for two consecutive years. As the author-ities introduced a water rationing system, residents endured 12-hour water cutoffs dai-ly; the licences that authorise businesses, agricultural enterprises and private entities to draw directly from rivers, reservoirs and artesian wells were also suspended. Brazilian scientists, including its water utility officials, claimed that large-scale felling of rainfor-ests in the Amazon basin was a major cause of the drought; rainfall was half in 2014-15 when compared to the previous worst year. While analysts do not ignore the connection,

they say it’s time the utilities diversified their water resourc-es and plugged leakages. São Paulo loses almost 30 per cent of its treated supply due to leaks in the piping system.

IS ASSURED SUPPLY ENOUGH?Dearth of water is not always the reason for water stress. In several cities people suffer due to lack of access to suffi-cient clean or potable water. Consider Karachi. This pre-mier industrial and financial centre of Pakistan is also the country’s most populous city. Media reports say the Karachi Water and Sewerage Board (kwsb) barely meets 50 per cent of the city’s total requirement even as its popu-lation grows by 5 per cent per annum. Mahmood Ahmed of the Shahid Javed Burki Institute of Public Policy at NetSol, a non-profit in Lahore, says kwsb is infamous for its irregu-lar and inequitable water supply. Though 60 per cent of the

households are covered by kwsb network, all they receive is water at a low pressure and for a few hours. The 12 community points meant for informal settlements, catering to over 50 per cent of the city’s population, barely yield any water and people invariably resort to tanker mafias. The worsening water crisis resulted in civil unrest in the city in June 2016.

But do the ones who receive assured water supply receive clean water? In 2011, the World Wide Fund for Nature (wwf) released a report “Big cities, big water, big challeng-es”, which says a big No. In Karachi, for instance, only 57 per cent of the households have proper sewerage systems. This means a large amount of raw sewage gets washed away into open drains, contaminating leaky pipes, shallow aquifers and the Lyari and Malir rivers that are the major water sources of the city. A 2007 report of the Asian Development Bank says Karachi dumps around 340 million cubic metres of wastewater into the Arabian Sea every day; the Lyari and Malir get polluted immensely. Small wonder, outbreaks of wa-terborne diseases are a regular feature in the city.

Buenos Aires, the capital city of Argentina, has no reason to be water stressed. The Argentine city is crisscrossed by the La Plata river and dotted with waterbodies. But un-checked expansion of industrial units, including tanneries, along its shores has now made the river into a receptacle of heavy metal-laced industrial waste. Since the city has the ca-pacity to treat only 5.3 per cent of its untreated sewage, most waterbodies remain choked with waste. Since 1940, the city has turned to groundwater to meet its growing industri-al and private consumption demands. But over the years, effluents from industries and

Sao Paulo depends on six reservoirs on the Tiete river for water supply.

This makes it vulnerable to precipitation

anomalies. In 2015, it experienced its greatest

water crisis in over 80 years after receiving

deficit rainfall for two consecutive years



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domestic sewage have contaminated groundwater. The wwf report says groundwater at several places is no longer potable.

In cities like Kabul, however, conflicts are the reason people do not have access to ad-equate potable water. Bombings have destroyed a large section of supply networks and treatment facilities in this city, where only 20 per cent of the residents had access to treat-ed water. While internal strife has hit water availability in Kabul, in several other cit-ies, water has also resulted in more conflicts—both internal as well as trans-boundary.

CONFLICTS IN THE MAKING?As Chennai struggles for water, there are instances where farmers from surrounding rural districts have been selling water meant for irrigation to the city to the detriment of neighbouring farmers. Now consider this. A city like Delhi depends on neighbour-ing Haryana and Uttar Pradesh for water. It gets 60 per cent of its water from Haryana alone. Last summer, the Delhi government approached the prime minister for help af-ter Haryana released less water. The Delhi Jal Board officials said that if this continued the city would face a major crisis.

Such conflicts will become common as more than 27 per cent of cities across the world will have water demands that would exceed the surface-water availability, says a study by Nature Sustainability this January. The study analysed 482 world’s largest cities. Almost 19 per cent of cities, dependent on surface water transfers, have a high potential for con-flict between the urban and agricultural sectors, since both sectors cannot obtain their estimated future water demands. McDonald, who is part of the study, says policymakers should make agricultural practices efficient to reduce rural-urban conflicts.

But such conflicts would be just the tip of the iceberg in a changing climate. Are the governments equipped for an unforeseen future?

The Sao Paulo water crisis, or "hydric collapse" as many are calling it, has left this city of 20 million teetering on the brink

COURTESY: CITY.IO



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HE CRISIS at Cape Town has shown what unplanned urbanisation can do to water avail-ability in the world’s urban centres. Not only are our metropolises headed to a dry future, the scarcity will increase as people are migrating to urban areas at unprecedented rates. About 54 per cent of the world,or 3.9 billion people, live in urban areas and they will grow between 60 and 92 per cent by the end of the century, says a study published in Nature this January. As a result, the urban water demand will increase by 80 per cent by 2050, it adds. Most worryingly, “climate change will alter the timing and distribution of water,” it says.

About 400 million urban dwellers currently face water shortage, states a 2014 study published in Global Environmental Change (see ‘36 per cent cities to face water crisis by 2050’ on p54). This when the average global temperature has not even risen by 1.5°C above pre-industrialisation levels. What will happen when it rises by 2°C? A study, published in Earth System Dynamics in November 2017, has made projections for those scenarios. A 1.5°C rise in the average global temperature will expose 357 million urban dwellers to ex-treme droughts while the figure for a 2°C rise will be 696 million, it says (see ‘A dry future’ on p55). The number of city dwellers facing water shortage by 2050 could be much high-er, about 1 billion, says the Nature study.

These rises in temperature are no longer hypothetical scenarios. A draft report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc) leaked this February warns that the av-erage global temperature is set to rise by 1.5°C by the 2040s. What will happen to our cities?

Parched is the new reality: Practically every instance of water shortage that has blighted cities across the world in the past two decades has been preceded by protracted droughts. California, which endured the worst drought in its history between 2012 and 2017, is one glaring example of this trend. Since 2011, the state has received the lowest annual precip-itation and highest annual temperature in its history. In 2014, the government declared a drought emergency after the state received one of the lowest rainfalls in centuries (see ‘Dehydrated state of America’, Down To Earth, 16-31 May, 2015). The following year, gov-ernor Jerry Brown for the first time announced strict water restrictions after the snowpack

An estimated 400 million people currently live in cities with perennial water shortage. The number is slated to go up to 1 billion by 2050 due to rising urban population and the impact of climate change

URBAN

DESERTS

T


51-56Cover Story-sec3.indd 51 09/03/18 4:47 PM

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on the Sierra Nevada mountain range reached the lowest point in 500 years. After a smat-tering of precipitation in winters this year, the US’ National Drought Mitigation Center said that over 91 per cent of the state is suffering “abnormally dry” conditions, which means drought is likely to hit soon.

Half way across the globe, Australia is still struggling to emerge from the millennium drought that lasted from 1996 to 2010. As southeastern Australia received below medi-an rainfall during these 14 years, many areas had their driest period on record. The impact was more pronounced in cities, including Perth, Canberra, Adelaide, Hobart, Brisbane and Sydney, which were pushed to the kind of scarce situation Cape Town faces today. Water reserves of Melbourne, for instance, fell from 97 per cent to 33 per cent in the same period.

What’s worse, most studies say that the situation is worsening globally. “Cities and Climate Change”, a 2011 report by UN-Human Settlements Programme, says the area un-der extreme drought conditions is likely to increase drastically in the coming decades. From less than 1 per cent of the total landmass now, extreme drought could affect as much as 30 per cent of the land by 2100 due to changing precipitation patterns and increasing water demand. A 2015 study, published in the Global Environmental Change, says expanding drylands and increasing urbanisation could make nearly 0.5 million sq km of urban area drought-prone by 2030. This is nearly 300 per cent increase from the 0.17 million sq km of urban area identified as drought-prone in 2000. The expansion is expected to be multi-fold in China, South Asia, North Africa, West Asia and North America. A study published in

In September 2013, Mexico city witnessed

the worst-ever floods in its history,

due to which the groundwater and

extraction wells were contaminated

REUTERS



C O V E R S T O R Y

How will expansion of cities affect global water demand?With global urban growth set to add more than 2 billion addition-al people by 2030, our cities will expand. Today, approximately 54 per cent of the global population, or 3.9 billion people, live in cit-ies. This is likely to grow between 60 and 92 per cent by the end of the century. Historically, as urban population increased by leaps and bounds, domestic water use al-most quadrupled in the past 60 years. Factors such as wealth and access to drinking water infra-structure contributed to high wa-ter usage. The worrying point is this trend will continue with do-mestic water use forecast set to increase by another 80 per cent by 2030.

Which cities risk facing water crisis?In a recent research published in the online journal, Nature

Sustainability, my colleagues and I found that 16 per cent of the cities featured in our sam-ple experienced water short-age. These cities witnessed at least one month of surface water deficit during the 1971-2000 baseline period. This happened even after they pri-oritised water over agricul-ture. According to the study, by 2050, Los Angeles, Jaipur and Dar es Salaam are pre-dicted to witness the greatest surface-water deficit. On an average, this will exceed 100 million cubic metre (m3) per

year. It also says that urban sur-face-water deficit of the top 20 cit-ies is currently about 2,338 million m3, which is around 35 per cent of the total deficit.

How will climate change hit supply?While growth in urban population is leading to increased water de-mand, climate change will make supply more variable. In some places, it will lead to a reduction of availability. It is likely that by 2050, 36 per cent of the world's cities will face water crisis. The common opinion of various studies is that water shortage will increase in the years to come. In future, one in six large cities is likely to be at the risk of water deficit.

Increased demand for urban water supply will put pressure on groundwater resources. We investi-gated urban groundwater stress by calculating the urban groundwa-ter footprint of regional aquifers.

Climate change and socio-econom-ic factors like urbanisation will lead to an increasing urban groundwa-ter footprint. Historically, many cit-ies in less developed countries had systems that were inadequate to provide 24X7 water access to its people, a goal that will become even harder to reach in the future.

Are we heading towards a dry future?Everyone is talking about Cape Town. Prior to this, droughts hit Sao Paulo and California. As weath-er varies, it is impossible to predict which cities may face drought in the future. However, what we can say with certainty is that increased water demand and less regular supply due to climate change will make events like the Cape Town drought frequent.

How can we avoid more Cape Towns?There are two solutions. One is ex-panding water supply and increas-ing storage. This will ensure that cities survive under drought. This can be done by long-distance water transfers, but can also come from groundwater or desalination. When cities appropriate more water, they impact the freshwater ecosystem. Sometimes urban water usage is more than in agriculture. Also, so-ciety should make more efficient use of water. This can be done by fixing leaky pipes, which causes wastage. Steps must be taken to make farmers efficient in use of ir-rigation water. Water reuse is an option too.

`36% cities to face water crisis by 2050'ROBERT MCDONALD, scientist at the US-based environmental organisation The Nature Conservancy, talks to SUSHMITA SENGUPTA on water crisis in cities and how climate change will add on to the problem



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February 2018 in the Environmental Research Letters, warns that by the end of the century southern European cities, especially in Spain and Portugal, could be experiencing droughts 14 times as intense as those they experienced between 1951 and 2000. In Africa, one in three people live in drought-prone conditions. This number, estimates the World Water Council, could be as high as two in three within a decade.

Cities turn into heat islands: Unplanned urbanisation has turned cities into settlements that trap heat due to widespread concretisation. Trapped heat increases the rate of sur-face water evaporation, and, as a result, dependency on groundwater. It also pushes the consumption levels of potable water, aggravating the water crisis. ‘Urban Heat Island: Causes, Effects & Mitigating Strategies’, a study published in the Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research in 2017, says urban heat islands increase demand for water for cooling such as use of swimming pools and fountains or for watering plants. At the same

The Amazon, northeastern Brazil, South Africa and central Europe are at high risk of drought if the average global temperature rises more than 1.5 0C above the pre-industrialisation levels

A dry future

PDSI** difference

357 millionadditional people* in urban areas could be exposed to extreme droughts if the world gets warmer by

1.5ÊC

Source: Earth Systems Dynamics Discussions;*Projections are from baseline period of 1986-2005

696 million additional people* in urban areas could be exposed to extreme droughts if the world gets warmer by

2ÊC

-2 20**Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) uses readily available temperature and precipitation data to estimate relative dryness for predicting long-term droughts. The index factors in drought duration, intensity and severity



C O V E R S T O R Y

California, which is emerging from its worst dry spell from 2012 to 2017, is likely to face yet another drought following an unusually dry winter

REUTERS

time it degrades water quality of streams, rivers and lakes due to thermal pollution caused by storm water runoff from heated urban surfaces such as pavements and rooftops.

Scarcity amid plenty: Apart from drought-prone areas, even cities that are close to wa-ter sources or receive excessive rains and floods, are reporting water crisis. In September 2013, Mexico city witnessed its worst-ever floods. Flood water levels reached 1.6 m above the ground, ravaging 3,500 houses and submerging water-extraction wells. Soon, the re-gion reported a 300 per cent increase in intestinal infections and cholera because the flood had contaminated the city’s groundwater reserves.

Rising sea level, another impact of climate change, threatens the water security of some 360 million people in coastal cities like Kolkata, Shanghai, Dhaka and Jakarta. Most of these cities heav-ily rely on groundwater, and overextraction has resulted in seawater intrusion, rendering surface and groundwa-ter saline. In Dhaka, one of the most vulnerable cities to sea level rise, salt content in soil could decrease the yields of some rice crops by over 15 per cent by 2050, says a 2015 news release by World Bank. Even road construction will rise by over 250 per cent because higher salt levels in soil cause paved surfaces to crack, adds the report.

Is there a way out? The only way to reverse the trend is by ensuring that the average global temperature does not rise beyond 1.5°C. As per the leaked ipcc report, this would require historic and unprecedented changes in countries’ emission trajectories and that appears unlikely. It’s time the governments started managing their waters wisely.

About 54 per cent of the world,

or 3.9 billion people, live in urban areas

and this percentage will grow between 60 and 92 per cent

by the end of the century. The urban water demand will

increase by 80 per cent by 2050



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