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Floodplain Management 2050 Are Gilbert’s Adjustment

Factors Sufficient?

Larry A. Larson, P.E. CFMAssociation of State Floodplain Managers

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Overview

Early approaches to Flood losses The Foundation for change in last

60 yrs- Human Adjustments To Floods

Trends/drivers of change in 2050 Strategies to adapt in 2050 A Charge to Forum participants

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Early approaches to Flood losses

Engineering solutions

1850-Congress asked the Corps to study flood control on lower Miss. River

1917-$45 M for levees on Lower Miss. 1927 flood affected social change 1936 FCA—Federal lead in flood control Billions spent on structural works Damages continued to mount

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A Shift in Managing Floods

Engineering had some success, but long term losses continued and risk increased

Contributions to losses from external factors such as land use, population, etc

Gilbert’s dissertation suggests adjusting human behavior, not engineering nature

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Importance of White’s Work

Defined what was later called Floodplain Management

Introduced the human element Impact Responsibility Need to Adjust

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Human Adjustments to Floods Elevation Flood Abatement (Watershed management) Flood Protection (Structural flood control) Emergency Measures Structural Adjustments (adjustments to

buildings and infrastructure) Land Use Public Relief Insurance(Adapted from Gilbert F. White- 1942 Dissertation)

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Experiences of the last 60 years?

NFIP biggest added tool Quid pro quo flood insurance—land use Over 20,000 communities participate

by Regulating land use in floodplain Keeping floodways open Elevating structures in flood fringe

$1.2 billion/yr in reduced damage

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Experiences of the last 60 years?

Heavy top down approaches by federal agencies to “stop” flooding continued

Continued building structural projects

Spent over $35 billion on projects Dams, levees and channels

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Experiences of the last 60 years? Flooding Still Increasing-

More watershed runoff Loss of floodplain storage Floodwater transfer Current process looks at

Development in floodplain, but not impacts of all development in watershed (NAI)

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Results? Those living at risk pay part of the

cost of living at risk in flood hazard areas

Over 5 million flood insurance policies that help property owners recover

Structural projects cost shared But: Damages still increasing, albeit at a

slower rate

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Factors affecting human adjustment approaches

Population and development patterns Climate variation Human and Social factors Environmental/resource Economy and government budgets Institutional programs and policies Financial incentives/disincentives

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Population 100 Million more people by

2050 How does that impact:

Coastal zones? Failure zones of Levees and dams? Arid region Hazards? Natural and Beneficial resources in

hazard areas Infrastructure needs?

Transportation and water

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Housing Housing Trends

Condo and High Rise Development, thus increased density

Affordability- 40 year or longer mortgages Increased percentage of personal balance sheet In California, 50% of all mortgages are interest

only right now More risk for lending community and tax

payers

Increased

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Environmental Variables

Climate Change Where, When, How Much?

Environmental health of waters Improved?? Impacts on society

Aesthetics—quality of life Environment and Recreation Economic- Food Source

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Aging Infrastructure Including levees and dams

Repair? Replace? Remove? Who Pays?

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Federal Budgets

Can the Federal Budget Support Disaster Assistance? Projects? Flood Insurance Catastrophic Claim

Years? Natural Resource Restoration?

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Flood Damages in 2050 Prior to Katrina Flood damages

estimated at approximately $6 billion annually

By 2050 annual damages may exceed $10 billion annually- again ignoring Katrina—Cat event $200-400 billion

…Unless we change the current process to address future changes and needs

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Katrina questions and lessons

Adequacy of 100-year standard in high risk areas? Critical facilities?

Layered protection (e.g. levees with flood insurance and/or floodplain management requirements)?

Should many areas plan for gradual retreat from high risk areas? Coast?

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Current Policy Disconnects

Who benefits---who pays Development benefits go to locals

who control land use, but can externalize…

Costs of damage to federal taxpayers Disaster assistance—PA and IA Tax deductions for casualty loss Tax bailout of bankrupt programs

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Current Policy Disconnects

Public Safety v. 100 year flood Public sees:

100 year flood line as the “safe vs. not safe” line

Behind levee as safe v. not safe Primary function and duty of local

and states is public safety---Police and fire, but its also flood!

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Current Policy Disconnects

Risk communication Risk is probability times consequences

Buy down the risk with a variety of tools-elevate, insurance, levee, but

Still have residual risk Maps and insurance must convey the

gradation of risk, not all or nothing

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Institutional Roles

Federal-state-local In light of trends, can current heavy

federal top down approaches work? Who is best suited to do risk

communication, technical assistance, mapping, data collection, mitigation planning and implementation, etc

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Controlling Risk in 2050 Either by:

Control severity of flooding Control value of what is placed at risk

Personal risk vs. societal risk Who benefits---who pays?

Data—how will we get data to show the facts and make these decisions?

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Public Policy

“In effect, the national treasury bears a large part of the costs of those who prefer to live on floodplains, and does so without inquiring as to whether or not such plains afford any pronounced advantage for such occupance”

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Public Policy

“On the whole, present policy fosters an increasing dependence by individuals and local governments upon the federal government for leadership and financial support in dealing with flood problems”

…has it changed?

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Public Policy

How do we change bad public policy? Public outrage Political will

Information and education are key

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Which adjustments effective?

Gilbert said:“All possible adjustments except

those in land use and insurance tend to favor the preservation of existing land occupance” (in flood risk areas)

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Human Adjustments to Floods Elevation Flood Abatement (Watershed management) Flood Protection (Structural flood control) Emergency Measures Structural Adjustments (adjustments to

buildings and infrastructure) Land Use Public Relief Insurance(Adapted from Gilbert F. White- 1942 Dissertation)

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Does Future Demand Additional Adjustment

Factors?

If so, what might those factors be? What strategies will get us

prepared? What is success? How measure it?

Those in this room you have the experience, knowledge and ability to develop recommendations that will guide the nation next 45 years

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These two days at Forum

Listen Think Contribute Debate

Lets lay the foundation for that change in these two days

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Floodplain Management 2050

Larry Larson ASFPM

www.floods.org