1 dr. todd curtis, the airsafe.com foundation, 24 march 2004 the challenges of promoting safety dr....

1Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

The Challenges of Promoting SafetyThe Challenges of Promoting Safety

Dr. Todd Curtis

The AirSafe.com Foundation

NASA - Ellington Field

24 March 2004

Slides and other materials at airsafe.com/nasatalk.htm


AgendaAgenda Some General Realities about Safety Marketing and Selling Safety How to Ask an Aviation Safety Question Marketing and Selling Safety The Sociology of Safety The Key Role of the Human Element Safety and Innovation: The Challenges Remain Are You Better Than Average?TM


Some General Realities about SafetySome General Realities about Safety

Safety Touches on Many Areas

What is Important is Not Always Obvious

Perception of Risk is Often the Key

Improvement Takes More Than Technology

No One Can Do It Alone

The Individual is Still Important

Never Underestimate the Human Element


Key ConceptsKey Concepts

Safety: A Constantly Changing Concept

Risk: Probability and Consequences

The Power of Storytelling

The Power of Public Perception

The Interactions of People and Technology

Safety Failures are System Failures


Safety is More Than NumbersSafety is More Than Numbers

Definitions are Very Flexible The Level of Concern Can Vary Widely Hard to Agree on an Acceptable Level Common Measurements May Not Exist Issues can be Subjective or Objective How to Frame the Debate is an Issue Cost per Life and Cost per Life Saved Accomplishing the Mission and Protecting Lives


The Marketing and Selling of SafetyThe Marketing and Selling of SafetyWhy is it So Difficult?Why is it So Difficult?

Safety Comes at a Continuing Cost

Costs are Measurable, Benefits are Not

Costs and Benefits Happen to Different

Groups

Desire to Maximize the “Bottom Line”

Building Codes and Bird Hazard Reduction


How to Ask an Aviation Safety QuestionHow to Ask an Aviation Safety Question

Understanding the Question is the Foundation

Specifying the Question is Necessary

Need to Know and Understand the Audience

Managing the Process is a Key to Success

Presenting the Answer is Part of the Process

Example: Airliner Deaths of the U.S. Congress


How to Ask an Aviation Safety QuestionHow to Ask an Aviation Safety QuestionKey Phases of the ProcessKey Phases of the Process

Goals and Objectives

Identifying and Evaluating Data

Identifying Appropriate Analysis Methods

Resource Management

Task Management

Presentation Design

Administration


Marketing and Selling SafetyMarketing and Selling SafetyThe Birth of BirdStrike.orgThe Birth of BirdStrike.org

Bird Strike Community Spread Around the World Communications Limited

Elmendorf AWACS Accident Key Turning Point

Recognized Need for Controlling the Debate

Pitched the Idea to the Key Stakeholders

Prototype Site within AirSafe.com


Marketing SafetyMarketing SafetyAirSafe.com Design and Development CriteriaAirSafe.com Design and Development Criteria

Markets: Journalists, Passengers, Aviation professionals Target Audience Was Worldwide Initial Focus on Passenger Deaths in Jet Transports

Limit Information to Publicly Accessible Sources

Overall Design Optimized for Fast Loading

“Three Click Rule” for Most Information


Marketing SafetyMarketing SafetyKey Realities of AirSafe.comKey Realities of AirSafe.com

Lack of Resources Led to Better Planning

Technology Takes a Back Seat to Content

Balance Between Perceived and Actual Needs

Internet Technology Plays a Central Role


The Sociology of SafetyThe Sociology of Safety Aviation Safety Is a Community Individuals Have Limited Power Change is Usually Evolutionary Dramatic Events Can Drive Technology Dramatic Events Can Change the Debate Safety Policy Exists in a Social Context Storytelling is a Key Agent of Change The Unwritten Code of Silence


The Key Role of the Human ElementThe Key Role of the Human Element

Human Actions, Decisions, and Judgment in All Phases of the Safety Process

Role of Interaction of People and Technology is Getting More Complex

Improving the Human Element is Not EasyExamples: Cockpit Resource Management,

Operational Risk Assessment


The Key Role of the Human ElementThe Key Role of the Human ElementExample: Why are Some Accidents More Well Known?Example: Why are Some Accidents More Well Known?

Public Policy Follows Public Interest

Several Key Factors in Public Interest

“Body Bags with American Flags”

The New York Connection

Public Interest Tied to High-Interest Events


The Key Role of the Human ElementThe Key Role of the Human ElementExample: AirSafe.com Traffic After Key EventsExample: AirSafe.com Traffic After Key Events


The Key Role of the Human ElementThe Key Role of the Human ElementExample: AirSafe.com Traffic After Key EventsExample: AirSafe.com Traffic After Key Events

Alaska Airlines Concorde

American 5879/11


The Key Role of the Human ElementThe Key Role of the Human Element Example: Operational Risk AssessmentExample: Operational Risk Assessment

Basics are Widely TaughtCan be Used at all LevelsIssues can be of any ScaleWorks Best if All Relevant Parts of the

Organization are InvolvedAssessment and Management Methods

Allow for Effective ManagementUsed Along With Other Methods


The Key Role of the Human ElementThe Key Role of the Human Element Example: Cockpit Resource ManagementExample: Cockpit Resource Management

Recognition Came About Through Tragedy

Necessary to Bring Change to the Entire Community

Getting Consensus was a Long-Term Project

Necessary to change basic traditions

Widely Recognized but Not Universally Practiced


Safety and InnovationSafety and InnovationThe Challenges RemainThe Challenges Remain

Higher Levels of AutomationUnmanned and Autonomous AircraftUnpredictable Requirements EvolutionSudden Appearance of New ThreatsFlight in Relatively Unknown RegimesChanging of Long-Held Assumptions


Safety and InnovationSafety and InnovationWhat September 11 RevealedWhat September 11 Revealed

A Failure of ImaginationUnwillingness to Debate Technical IssuesThe Separation of Safety and SecurityCatalyst for Rapid ChangeRelative Silence of the Technical ExpertsExtreme Social and Political Pressures


Accident InvestigationAccident InvestigationA Once in a Lifetime ExperienceA Once in a Lifetime Experience

Most Will Never Have Direct Experience

On Site Investigation Has Many Players

Most Personnel are not Safety Professionals

Each Investigation has Unique Challenges

Civil and Military Arenas Have Key Differences

Process Can be Psychologically Challenging


Accident InvestigationAccident InvestigationExample: AWACS at ElmendorfExample: AWACS at Elmendorf

Most Will Never Have Direct Experience

On Site Investigation Has Many Players

Most Personnel are not Safety Professionals

Each Investigation has Unique Challenges

Civil and Military Arenas Have Key Differences

Examples of Psychological Challenges

Are You Better Than Average?Are You Better Than Average?The Emotional Side of ProbabilityThe Emotional Side of Probability

A game that illustrates the relationship between logic, emotion, and probability

It also illustrates the likelihood of an unwanted event over a population of rare events

Field tested from kindergarteners to PhDs One way to put risk into an easy to understand

example

Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004 23

Are You Better Than Average?Are You Better Than Average?The Rules of the GameThe Rules of the Game

There is one chance in three of a double or a seven On average, it takes three rolls for a double or a seven Get a double or seven on the first roll, you are better than

average, if not, roll again Get a double or seven on the second roll, you are still better

than average, if not you are no better than average If your emotions are bruised, keep playing the game until

you “win”


Are You Better Than Average?Are You Better Than Average?Possible OutcomesPossible Outcomes

Win on first roll, P(1/3)

Win on second roll, P(2/9)

Lose on second roll, P(4/9)No Double, no Seven

No Double, no Seven

Double or Seven

Double or Seven


Are You Better Than Average?Are You Better Than Average?Expected Distribution of ResultsExpected Distribution of Results

Distribution of Results for 99 Turns

33

22

44

05

101520253035404550

First Throw (1/3)

Second Throw(2/3)(1/3)

All Others 1-[(1/3) + (2/3)(1/3)]

Pe

rce

nt


Are You Better Than Average?Are You Better Than Average?Relevance to FlightRelevance to Flight

Operational scenarios may look like an outcome to a game WWII example – surviving 25 missions A 1% likelihood of a shootdown implies about a 78%

chance of making 25 missions (1st or 3rd outcome) A 2.4% likelihood of a shootdown implies about a 55% 25

chance of making 25 missions (1st or 2nd outcome) Acceptable losses for the fleet depends on the nature of the

mission and the acceptance of the risk


B-17: Make it Home AliveB-17: Make it Home AliveThe Rules of the GameThe Rules of the Game

Same basic rules as “Are You Better Than Average?” Two versions: 1% Risk or 2.4% Risk For 1% risk, 1st or 3rd outcome is a “win” For 2.4% risk, 1st or 2nd outcome is a “win” Unlike “Are You Better Than Average?,” each player only

has one opportunity On a B-17 crew, there is no second opportunity


B-17: Make it Home AliveB-17: Make it Home AlivePossible Outcomes for the 1% GamePossible Outcomes for the 1% Game

Finish 25 missions, P(1/3)

Do not finish 25 missions, P(2/9)


Double or Seven

Double or

SevenNo Double, no Seven

No Double, no Seven


B-17: Make it Home AliveB-17: Make it Home AlivePossible Outcomes for the 2.4% GamePossible Outcomes for the 2.4% Game



Do Not Finish 25 missions, P(4/9)

Double or Seven

Double or

SevenNo Double, no Seven

No Double, no Seven


1 dr. todd curtis, the airsafe.com foundation, 24 march 2004 the challenges of promoting safety dr....

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